The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Sharp or Square — NFL Week 16 Bets)
Date: December 17, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square" dives into NFL betting angles for Week 16, blending sharp professional insights with relatable, sometimes rueful, fan perspective. Chad and Simon break down marquee matchups including Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Ravens, Niners-Colts, Bucs-Panthers, Jaguars-Broncos, and many more. The discussion covers betting philosophy, public vs. professional money, and the emotional roller coaster that is NFL wagering.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Opening Recap: Accountability & Season Progress
- Chad opens from Las Vegas, reflecting on their consistent performance: “Any week that we're not underwater is a winning week by definition” [03:44].
- Week 15: 3–2 record. Wins on Rams, Bills, Vikings; losses on Chiefs, Packers.
- Emphasizing the grind: “We want to win every week. We want to win over the long haul.” [03:54]
Game-by-Game Analysis
Rams at Seahawks (Thursday Night Football)
- Line: Seahawks +1
- The Angle: Public consensus loves the Rams after a dominant run, but weather and pro money are pulling some toward Seattle.
- Simon: Leans Rams due to their running game but admits bias: “I probably have too much, too high of expectations right now for this Rams team... I just think they're the clear class and above everyone else in the NFC.” [06:45]
- Chad: Neutral, noting Sam Darnold struggles: “I haven't bet the game. I'm just looking at this from a...do I want to be fading that?” [07:33]
Eagles at Commanders (Saturday)
- Line: Commanders +6.5
- The Angle: Eagles are riding public hype after a blowout win. Commanders turn to Mariota after benching Jaden Daniels.
- Simon: Slight Washington lean. “I'm not buying it with the Eagles yet…this is a horrible defense in Washington...but I'm just not buying yet what the Eagles are putting out there.” [09:28]
- No strong opinions; both hosts see reasons to be cautious.
Packers at Bears (Saturday Night)
- Line: Bears +1.5 (moved from +2.5)
- Chad: “Why don't I just love the Bears even more here?” Expresses excitement but also fatalistic expectation of heartbreak: “This is 100% the game where the Bears break all of our hearts. I have zero expectations of anything otherwise.” [15:51]
- Simon: Initially liked the Bears at the opener, now leaning Green Bay with the shift: “If I didn't bet the Bears on Sunday night, we'd be way more into betting Green Bay right now.” [15:35]
Chiefs at Titans (Sunday)
- Line: Titans -3.5 (following Mahomes injury)
- Chad: Points out the line move wasn’t as big as Mahomes' value (~10 points): “So this game only moved seven. It was 11 and a half before Patrick Mahomes was injured…” [17:55]
- Simon: “Avoid it like the plague. We just lost the GOAT. I mean, what are we doing here?” [18:45]
- General avoidance with Chiefs off the board due to major injury.
Vikings at Giants
- Line: Giants +3
- Sharp Play: "Simon Says" is Giants +3 (Simon is on Giants, fading road-favorite hype for rookie JJ McCarthy).
- Simon: “Simon says give me the Giants plus three. I want to play a game.” [20:46]
- Public wrongly hyped on road-favorite rookie: “Can't believe the public is hammering JJ on the road as a favorite.” [22:58]
Bucs at Panthers
- Line: Panthers +3
- Reverse Line Movement: Public on Panthers, money is moving the line toward Tampa. Wiseguys like the Bucs.
- Chad: Loves Bryce Young’s comeback stats as a dog: “Bryce Young has the most fourth quarter overtime comeback victories of any quarterback in the NFL since 2023. That’s 11.” [30:36]
- Both prefer Panthers as a dog, value at +3 (would love +3.5). [29:41–31:50]
Jets at Saints
- Line: Saints -4
- Chad: Tyler Shough’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds narrative, regrets not betting him at 200:1. [33:24]
- Simon: Likes Jets, playing against the Shough hype: “This is the exact time to get off the Shuck train and the hype.” [34:21]
Chargers at Cowboys
- Line: Cowboys -1.5
- Sharp vs. Public: Professionals are on Dallas; public on Chargers.
- Simon: Leans Chargers as dogs but uneasy: “I can't imagine betting six figures into Dallas or the Chargers right now.” [37:00]
- Admits their read is often wrong on the Chargers: “They’re like the Titans. We’re always off them when we should be on them, and on them when we should be off them.” [36:14]
Bills at Browns
- Line: Browns +10.5
- Classic Overreaction Spot: Bills coming off big win, Browns blown out last week.
- Chad: “If you look at any metrics over the history of modeling, it says take the Browns.” [38:09]
- Simon: Wary of Cleveland’s defensive issues and possible give-up factor: "They just cannot stop the run right now. And the Bills...are number two, number three, Best running football team in football. So it’s a little scary." [41:07]
Bengals at Dolphins
- Line: Dolphins -1 / Bengals +1 in some spots
- Stat Play: Teams who get shut out are 6–0 ATS next week this season. “We have to bet Cincy.” [42:05]
- Both agree, if unwilling, the over is the safer play.
Falcons at Cardinals
- Line: Cardinals +2.5
- Simon: “I have this at a pick, maybe I'll have them at minus one now for this Falcons team but this is, this is insane. These are two just terrible teams.” [50:24]
- Stay away/fade spot as both teams are in the tank.
Steelers at Lions
- Line: Lions -7
- Tomlin Dog Stat: Chad highlights classic Mike Tomlin ‘rah rah underdog’ spot on the road, but Simon is wary: “Lions should move the ball on them as much as they want…But at +7…I guess I’m gonna take it.” [51:31]
Jaguars at Broncos
- Line: Broncos -3 (Jags +3)
- Both see this as a coin flip; lean Jags as a dog.
- Simon: “It feels like a type of game that's going to be a coin flip. So I want to back the dog in that spot.” [56:24]
Raiders at Texans
- Line: Texans -14.5
- Chad: “Isn't this when...you're supposed to bet the Raiders?” [57:07]
- Simon: “I'm betting the Vegas money line again. These late season huge dogs, they randomly upset these high flying playoff teams who just overlook them…” [58:09]
Patriots at Ravens (Sunday Night Football)
- Line: Ravens -3
- Chad’s Choice: New England +3 is his "Chad's Choice" for the week. [60:04]
- Chad: “This is a bounce back spot…even if [Ravens] are winning, they're still reeling.” [61:12]
- Simon: “This is the type of game that gets [Drake May] right back into it if he wins it…too big of a number for this Patriots team.” [62:06]
49ers at Colts (Monday Night Football)
- Line: Colts +5.5
- Chad: Leans 49ers, citing Rivers' limitations: “[The] Niners to me have been a much more competent offense than the Seahawks have been the past few weeks.” [64:34]
- Simon: Sees trap potential, wants to wait for movement: “If I get clearance that there's no wise guys hammering this cold side, me and you are stepping in it. I'm happy for us to be back in this one even in the contest...” [66:24]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “I feel like I got away even though they were up, you know, 14 points with not that much to go in the fourth quarter.” — Simon Hunter on surviving his Rams bet [06:52]
- “Maybe the professionals and the public will keep coming in and the number goes from one and a half to one to pick. And then all of a sudden playing the packers on the other side is a little bit more interesting.” — Chad Millman on the Packers-Bears line movement [15:25]
- “Simon says give me the Giants plus three. I want to play a game.” — Simon Hunter, making Giants +3 the "Simon Says" pick [20:46]
- “Bryce Young has the most fourth quarter overtime comeback victories of any quarterback in the NFL since 2023. That’s 11.” — Chad Millman [30:36]
- “This is 100% the game where the Bears break all of our hearts. I have zero expectations of anything otherwise.” — Chad Millman [15:51]
- “We want to win every week. We want to win over the long haul.” — Chad Millman — on sustainable betting success [03:54]
Quick Reference: Key Bets & Preferences
Sharp ("Simon Says") Pick
- Giants +3 vs. Vikings – [20:46]
Chad's Choice ("Chad's Choice")
- Patriots +3 at Ravens – [60:04]
Leaned Dogs/Value Sides
- Rams (-1) at Seahawks (Simon, weather dependent)
- Washington (+6.5) vs. Eagles (Simon, mild)
- Packers (-1.5) at Bears (Simon, number-based)
- Panthers (+3) vs. Bucs (both prefer dog at +3 or better)
- Jets (+4.5) at Saints (both, if number holds)
- Chargers (+2.5) at Cowboys (public side, but wary)
- Browns (+10.5) vs. Bills (statistical play, not a strong conviction)
- Cardinals (+3 or +3.5) vs. Falcons (play number if it gets there)
- Steelers (+7) at Lions (Tomlin trend, but for number only)
- Jaguars (+3) at Broncos (lean dog)
- Raiders (+14.5) at Texans (ugly dog theory)
- Bengals (+1) at Dolphins (shutout-bounceback stat)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [03:12] — Opening, recap and betting philosophy
- [05:40] — Rams at Seahawks
- [08:19] — Eagles at Commanders
- [11:31] — Packers at Bears
- [17:36] — Chiefs at Titans
- [20:09] — Vikings at Giants (Simon Says pick)
- [28:16] — Bucs at Panthers
- [31:50] — Jets at Saints (Tyler Shough Rookie of the Year subplot)
- [36:33] — Chargers at Cowboys
- [38:09] — Bills at Browns
- [41:41] — Bengals at Dolphins
- [48:03] — Falcons at Cardinals
- [51:11] — Steelers at Lions
- [53:38] — Jaguars at Broncos
- [57:07] — Raiders at Texans
- [60:04] — Patriots at Ravens (Chad’s choice)
- [64:04] — 49ers at Colts
Tone & Final Thoughts
Chad and Simon maintain their trademark blend of statistical sharpness and everyman agony, mixing strategic insight with a resigned acceptance of NFL variance. The episode is full of skeptical laughter, reluctant leans, and honest admission of biases—a perfect reflection of what it feels like to grind through an NFL season as a bettor.
Closing thought from Simon: “I just need 1, 5, 0 week…just give us one five and a week, get us up to 60%...I love when we’re at 60%.” [41:22]
Chad, in closing: “We got a lot of games to review on Thursday…hopefully we’ll get some intel that will make us want to believe in some teams that we actually think have a chance to win.” [67:03]
For full picks, evolving strategies, and game-by-game breakdowns, catch the Thursday show for their finalized contest entries.