The Herd with Colin Cowherd — Sharper Square (NFL Week 16 Reaction)

Episode: Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 16 REACTION
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: The Volume (iHeartPodcasts)
Date: December 22, 2025

Episode Overview

This week, Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissect NFL Week 16’s highest-profile games, highlighting both the agony and ecstasy of betting in a packed playoff race. From exhilarating finishes to betting heartbreaks, they break down their contest results, analyze the leading MVP contenders, shame underperforming teams, and set their sights on early Week 17 odds. The episode is packed with actionable insights, gambling war stories, and the duo’s trademark mix of exasperation, humor, and sharp sports analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Contest Recap and Betting Outcomes (02:48–06:48)

• Performance Overview: The guys walked through their picks – two underdogs won (Jaguars, Panthers), missed on favorites (Bills, Lions), and hung tight on a Panthers play they “waited their lives to bet.”
• Detroit Lions Pain: Detroit (+6.5) was a close call, but as Chad said:
  “We’re hanging on to a very thin thread of hope with the Detroit Lions.” (03:15)

2. Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (05:25–10:46)

• Finally, Home Field Magic: Both marvel at a “legit” Panthers home field vibe, reminiscent of the Cam Newton era.
  Simon: “For the first time…it legit felt like they had a home field advantage there.” (06:48)
• Bryce Young’s Grit: Multiple times, Young’s ability to keep drives alive under pressure is praised:
  • “A classic Bryce Young drive…spinning and stumbling and scrambling forward, keeping his eyes up, then finding Jotavian Sanders to take the lead.” (08:45)
• Tetairoa McMillan Rookie Hype: Simon touts him as a top contender for rookie of the year.
• Next Week Lean: Chad jumps quickly on Carolina as 7.5-point home dogs to Seattle:
  “I don’t see this team giving an inch. I see this team wanting to build.” (08:11)
  Simon: “That’s what they get you to do every time.” (08:28)

3. Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (10:46–16:13)

• Betting Regrets: Both admit to ignoring instincts and following the public on big favorites (Bills, Lions) — it backfired. Chad (on the Bills): “The Bills should have put this team away a thousand different ways and they couldn’t do it.” (11:17)
• Bills’ Woes: Frustration with Josh Allen’s injury scare and missed opportunities:
  Simon: “He was just off target…We still should have covered, like you said, a million different ways.” (12:04)
• Coaching Decisions & Officiating: Chad argues for technology-driven booth reviews:
  “If they would just review every play from the booth…this would be a better game.” (15:37)

4. Jaguars vs. Broncos — The Trevor Lawrence Show (16:13–22:29)

• Lawrence’s Leap:
  Chad: “He’s playing a different game the past five weeks. There’s no reason to hate him anymore.” (16:27)
  Simon: “He has so much talent, why can he not be consistent?...He has three passing touchdowns, rushing touchdown. It’s crazy.” (17:33)
• Key Sequence: They break down Lawrence converting critical late downs with both arm and legs.
• MVP Bandwagon: Simon touts Lawrence as a late MVP darkhorse: “55 to 1 literally 20 minutes before we started the podcast. He’s down to 40 to 1.” (38:22)

5. Detroit Lions’ Meltdown at Pittsburgh (22:29–29:01)

• Deflating Fluke:
  Simon: “Just a bizarre world. We got crushed again by the going against juju, the voodoo that is Tomlin.” (23:42)
• Key Play: Chad describes a fluky Hail Mary TD that was the “death blow.” (22:44)
• DK Metcalf Sideline Incident: The guys discuss a looming league suspension after an altercation with a fan.
  Simon: “I hate it. It’s gotcha…the gotcha culture. But he should be punished. You can’t be smacking fans.” (26:34)
• Lions’ Window: Wistful Lions talk:
  Simon: “Your window is literally two to three years and then it’s just over. Pretty brutal.” (28:54)

6. QB Awards & Rookie Watch (36:41–39:38)

• Tyler Shough (Saints) vs. Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers):
  Simon: “I would still give it to McMillan just because he’s been more consistent…but Shough, if he wins out and puts up the numbers, it’s going to be hard not to give it to him.” (37:15)
• MVP Odds Movements:
  Simon: “Trevor Lawrence…down to 40 to 1. What are Caleb Williams MVP odds? 80 to 1. That’s a lot higher than I thought.” (38:22–39:08)

7. Quick Hits: Other Games & Contest Near-Misses (39:38–47:39)

• Giants-Vikings: Dodged a bullet by avoiding the Giants at +2.5. “The Giants were a train wreck…What a pathetic performance.” (40:51)
• Regrets and What-If’s: Raiders and Titans wins were ones they wanted but didn’t bet heavily in contest due to line movement/timing.
• Draft Outlook: Raiders and Giants could be fighting for the #1 overall pick, likely to target Fernando Mendoza. (47:19)

8. Shame of the Week

• Simon’s Pick — Dallas Cowboys:
  “Shame on you, Dallas Cowboys…they do love their quarterback…two playoff wins for Dak…Total failure organizationally.” (48:39)
• Chad’s Pick — Detroit Lions (especially defense):
  “That drive was the ball game and they could not get off the field…That was the lion season right there. And it’s over.” (50:08)

9. Hero of the Week (55:41–61:25)

• Simon: Philadelphia Eagles for clinching back-to-back NFC East titles.
  “It’s the best run of my lifetime…finally did it, back to back divisional titles.” (55:42)
  Drops stats for A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, and Nick Sirianni.
• Chad: Chicago Bears clinch a playoff spot!
  “Caleb Williams drops a dime in the bucket…with an offense that was struggling…they come back from 10 points down…the Chicago Bears have clinched a playoff spot.” (59:01)

10. Week 17 Early Betting Leans (61:26–66:00)

• Immediate leans noted:
  • Carolina +7.5 vs. Seattle
  • Colts +7 vs. Jaguars
  • Chicago +3 vs. 49ers
  • Simon eyeing Saints -2 vs. Tennessee (“might be stepping into a trap”)
• Battle Plan: “Be patient…see how numbers move, especially after MNF.” (63:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Betting Regret:
  Chad: “You know what, Simon? It’s every freaking week. We can’t get the right games out for the games that we want to put in.” (45:04)

• On Trevor Lawrence MVP Odds:
  Simon: “I just got a text that he is down to 30 to 1 at a couple of big books. So...just in case, throw 10 bucks, 20 bucks on it, because you never know.” (51:26)

• On the Cowboys’ Futility:
  Simon: “If they want to enjoy their Super Bowls, you gotta plug in the VHS, put in the tape. That’s the world you’re living in, Dallas Cowboys.” (50:08)

• Chad’s Bears Fandom:
  “Go Bears. Old timer. Look at us. Look at us just being happy.” (61:25)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Contest Recap: 02:48–06:48
• Panthers-Bucs Deep Dive: 05:25–10:46
• Bills-Browns Analysis: 10:46–16:13
• Jaguars-Broncos & Lawrence MVP Case: 16:13–22:29, 38:22–39:08
• Lions-Steelers Gut Punch: 22:29–29:01
• Rookie/MVP Discussion: 36:41–39:38
• Week’s Biggest Regrets: 39:38–47:39
• Shame of the Week: 48:39–51:26
• Hero of the Week: 55:41–61:25
• Week 17 Early Lines Overview: 61:26–66:00

Tone & Language

Conversational, occasionally irreverent, with sharp gambling analysis, emotional swings, and fan perspectives. Chad and Simon riff off each other's successes and failures with a mix of humility (“We could have been better…”), bravado, and football love.

Final Notes

This episode is rich in both granular game-by-game detail and wider narrative about the 2025 NFL playoff race, award betting, and the frustrations of being both a fan and a sharp bettor. It delivers practical insight for betters — and plenty of relatable fan pain and joy.

For more in-depth picks and reactions, catch their Tuesday deep dive episode!