Podcast Summary: The Herd - Sharp or Square: NFL Week 17 Bets (Dec 24, 2025)

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Theme: A handicapping breakdown and bettor’s perspective on the NFL’s Week 17 slate, focusing on backup QBs, questionable motivations, pros vs. Joes, and finding angles in a tough, injury-impacted week.

Overview

In this Christmas week episode of "Sharp or Square," betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dissect the NFL Week 17 betting board. With numerous third-string quarterbacks starting, playoff motivation questions, and lopsided public-vs.-sharp divides, the hosts break down every game, sharing ATS (against the spread) leans, statistics, trends, and gut reactions essential for any bettor eyeing the board this week.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Christmas Day Games: Ugly Backups, Big Lines, Tough Angles

• Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (+6.5)

  • Chad: "Is there a number that could get us to bet Josh Johnson starting for the Commanders, and is six and a half it?" (05:55)
  • Simon: "No... this is as bad as it’s been for Washington, and they really don’t want to win." (06:43)
  • Key stat: Dallas is 14-1 to the first half over this season—could set an NFL record (07:44).
  • Insight: Cowboys thrive as big favorites in meaningless games. If line climbs above 7.5, there could be value on Washington, but lean Cowboys and/or first half over.

• Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+6)

  • Status: Vikings on a third-string QB (Max Brosmer).
  • Simon: "Are they really six points better than Minnesota?... Goff and Campbell, when they’ve lost to a previous team, facing them now the second time, they’re 33 and 14 ATS in this exact spot… but this is too big. So you can get six, six and a half, shop around. I think that's the right number on Minnesota" (10:30)
  • Insight: Reluctant lean to Minnesota with the points due to historical trends and uncertainty at QB—emotionally tough to fire on.

• Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+13)

  • Simon: "This is such an ugly slate with these quarterbacks... Chiefs are a home dog of above 9 points—happened before, and they’ve covered in those spots." (13:43)
  • Insight: Public will be all over Broncos; data suggests KC covers big home dog spots historically, but only as a desperation play.

Saturday/Sunday Games: Trends, Letdowns, & Motivation

• Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)

  • Chad: "I’m not buying the Chargers. I’m going with the Texans. Chad’s choice: Houston Texans" (16:34)
  • Simon: "Herbert against winning teams is 9-15 straight up over the last 4 years. This feels like Texans should probably be a slight favorite." (17:51)
  • Insight: Both prefer Texans as the sharper side, with the Chargers a perennial disappointment as favorites.

• Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

  • "I don't get this one. Is Lamar playing? Is Jordan Love playing?... there’s something not quite right with the Ravens this year." (18:48)
  • Simon: "Packers early value... Ravens are 0-7 when allowing 20+ points. That says a lot." (20:06)
  • Insight: Value leans early toward the Packers, especially if Lamar is out, citing drama and inconsistency in Baltimore.

• Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7.5)

  • Simon says: "Give me the Seattle Seahawks -7. I want to play a game." (24:56)
  • "Sam Darnold as big favorite: 12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS in career as a 6+ point favorite." (26:50)
  • Betting highlight: Simon’s strongest call of the week is Seattle, capitalizing on Carolina’s inconsistency and Darnold’s track record as a favorite.

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

  • Chad: "It's time to bet the Colts again" (29:15)
  • Simon: "Trends are horrible... Indy is 3-17-1 ATS vs. the Jags since 2015... This is probably a Jags number." (32:36)
  • Insight: Both groan over this pick, recognizing the massive line and the Jags’ recent dominance; neither is enthusiastic.

Other Notable Games and Trends

• Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

  • Chad: "I've already bet the Titans... this team is a covering juggernaut."
  • Simon: "The pros, they're all over the Titans. Another Pros vs. Joes, public hammering Saints, sharps on Titans." (41:46)
  • Insight: Professional bettors love the Titans' recent ATS form and fading the Saints.

• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals (+7)

  • Simon: "We’re supposed to keep taking Cincy. Every week Arizona lays an egg." (44:28)

• Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

  • "We have to blindly bet the Browns at home vs. Steelers—it’s worked for us." (45:55)
  • Simon: "Browns have won five of their last six at home vs. Steelers; covered three straight."
  • Insight: Slight Browns lean; letdown spot for Steelers.

• New England Patriots at New York Jets (+13)

  • Simon: "If you’re betting the Jets, you’re literally betting on a miracle… the Patriots are better in every way possible." (49:29)
  • "Anything under 14, I think is okay for me to take Patriots." (50:57)

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (+7)

  • Chad: “No reason to say I like Dolphins… but I’d be more inclined to take the home dog here.” (51:09)
  • Simon: "We know we have to bet the Dolphins. The Bucs are in a historically bad ATS slide." (52:01)

• New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

  • "Battle for the Number 1 overall pick... what are we betting on here, motivation or talent?" (53:39)
  • Simon: "Home teams in 2-13 vs. 2-13 spots (since '90, Win% <13%) are 4-0 straight up. Raiders are technically the spot." (54:44)

Big Picture Betting Angles & Memorable Quotes

• On Ugly Backups and Parlay Traps:
  • Simon: "I can't wait to lose six figures on all these three teams moneyline parlay favorites. It's just such an ugly slate." (13:43)
• On Old School Betting Habits:
  • Simon: "We’ve been blindly betting this and it’s been working out for us." (45:55)
• On Fading Dallas & Big Favorites:
  • Simon: "Every Cowboys game like this ends with a 20-point win. This is where Dak thrives." (06:43)

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “This is as bad as it’s been for Washington, and they really don’t want to win.” – Simon (06:43)
• “Dallas is 14-1 to the first half over this season… I believe if they do hit this over their next game, it would set a record for the NFL.” – Simon (07:44)
• “Sam Darnold… as a 6+ point favorite, 12-0 straight up, 9-3 against the spread.” – Simon (26:50)
• “Are they really six points better than Minnesota? ... my gut says take the points.” – Simon (09:33)
• "If you’re betting the Jets, you’re literally betting on a miracle... Patriots are better in every way." – Simon (49:29)
• "Herbert against winning teams: 9-15 straight up… this feels like Texans should probably be a slight favorite." – Simon (17:51)
• “It’s time to bet the Colts again.” – Chad (29:15)
• "On ugly weeks, sometimes the gross play is the sharp play." – Paraphrased throughout.

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|-----------| | Cowboys-Commanders breakdown | 05:55 | | Lions-Vikings analysis | 08:22 | | Broncos-Chiefs ugly dog dilemma | 13:43 | | Texans-Chargers & "Chad's Choice" | 16:34 | | Ravens-Packers locker room drama | 18:48 | | Seahawks-Panthers ("Simon Says") | 24:56 | | Jags-Colts: Do we bet Indy again? | 29:15 | | Titans-Saints (Pros vs. Joes) | 41:46 | | Bengals-Cardinals lean | 44:28 | | Steelers-Browns ("blind bet" discourse) | 45:55 | | Pats-Jets miracle angle | 49:29 | | Bucs-Dolphins is "too gross" | 52:01 | | Giants-Raiders tank bowl | 53:39 | | Eagles-Bills sharp movement discussion | 60:36 | | Bears-49ers (Niners fade?) | 63:52 | | Rams-Falcons and McVay December trend | 68:14 | | Recap, sign-off, and Boxing Day preview | 70:27 |

Sharp or Square Betting Calls

Simon Says:

• "Seattle -7 at Carolina" (24:56)

Chad’s Choice:

• "Houston +2 at Chargers—if you can get a 2.5, go get it." (16:34)

Original Language and Tone

The episode is marked by its conversational, irreverent, and statistics-loaded style, with Chad and Simon swapping banter, betting horror stories, and dad jokes. Simon brings deep trend knowledge and deadpan humor, while Chad pilots the debate and interjects with personal stories, maintaining the kind of sharp, contrarian tone that avid listeners have come to love.

Takeaways for Listeners

• It’s an infamously ugly week, with tons of quarterbacks out and public favorites staring down huge numbers.
• The sharp side is often the team you least want to bet, especially in trap spots featuring backup QBs and “must-win” narratives.
• Multiple games are flagged as “Pros vs. Joes,” especially Titans-Saints and Seahawks-Panthers.
• Key statistical trends, like Cowboys’ first half overs and Sam Darnold’s record as a big favorite, are highlighted as actionable angles.
• The episode sets up a sharper, more focused discussion (and updated advice) for Friday’s Boxing Day show.

To Catch the Hosts’ Final Picks:
Tune in to the Boxing Day (Friday) episode for the consensus “final five” bets and more sharp-vs-square updates as injury and motivational info clarifies late in the week.

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"Feedback is like a Christmas gift under the tree. Until next time. Love you. Merry Christmas." (70:27)