The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: NFL Week 17 Reaction

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 17 REACTION
Date: December 29, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Overview

This episode dives deep into the wild and pivotal games of NFL Week 17, delivering sharp insights and real-time reactions from professional bettor Simon Hunter and host Chad Millman. The pair break down high-stakes results, betting lessons learned, the turmoil in underperforming franchises, and early leans for the Week 18 betting slate. Their honest banter, wiseguy takes, and memorable rants make for an engaging listen for avid sports bettors and NFL fans alike.

Key Discussion Points & Game Breakdowns

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

• Key Theme: Defensive dominance and ugly offensive performances
• Summary:
  • Seattle's defense and run game carried them, while both quarterbacks struggled.
  • Sam Darnold was especially poor, showing no rhythm and taking numerous bad sacks.
  • Bryce Young continued his rollercoaster rookie year with a brutal performance, highlighted by a key interception.
• Quote:
  • “Sam Darnold was horrible. Just… couldn’t hit open guys, kept taking bad sacks, held onto the ball too long… just not at all in rhythm.” — Simon Hunter (04:51)
  • “When [the Seahawks] flex on defense, it doesn’t matter how bad Darnold is—they keep giving him short fields.” — Simon Hunter (06:17)

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

• Key Theme: Betting regrets and rookie QB poise
• Summary:
  • The Titans blew a significant lead; Chad laments repeatedly backing Tennessee in contests despite an ongoing losing pattern.
  • Tyler Shuck (Saints) continues to climb in the Rookie of the Year race, leading a go-ahead touchdown drive.
  • Saints overcame a near-fumble-touchdown disaster and Titans defensive shortcomings.
• Quotes:
  • “You have one job. What’s your one job?” – Simon
    “Don’t bet the Tennessee Titans.” – Chad (09:26)
  • “We would be 10 games up if we just did not have the Tennessee Titans every week in our contest.” — Simon (09:37)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

• Key Theme: Defensive struggles and odd QB performances
• Summary:
  • Browns defense steps up to support inconsistent rookie QB Shedeur Sanders.
  • Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers displays a surprisingly conservative, checkdown-centric game plan.
  • Divisional "voodoo" holds: Browns cover as a home underdog once again.
• Quotes:
  • “Rogers really was like, I just… this is why people lose their mind watching these games, being like, the NFL is fixed.” — Simon (15:22)
  • “The Browns' defense, that’s why we bet them—you’re so right about Aaron Rodgers. Every ball he threw was just trying to make sure he wasn’t going to get sacked.” — Chad (17:57)

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

• Key Theme: Momentum swings and weather woes
• Summary:
  • Bills fall short after a costly missed two-point conversion, despite a late comeback push.
  • Eagles inconsistent, with a strong first half and a near-total offensive collapse in the second.
  • Discussion on the recurring theme of mistakes swinging games more than big, flashy plays.
• Quotes:
  • “How much mistakes swing momentum more than big plays… it’s always the freaking mistakes that kill you.” — Chad (19:13)
  • “Eagles’ offense, something’s been off… their defense got consistently better every week. Fangs master class this game.” — Simon (20:44)

NFC South Trainwreck: Panthers, Buccaneers, and Playoff Fates

• Key Theme: Embracing chaos in a weak division
• Summary:
  • The hosts delight in the mediocrity of the NFC South, where Carolina can clinch the playoffs with a tie and still be a home underdog.
  • Tampa Bay’s recurring trend: jump out to a lead, then collapse in the second half.
• Quotes:
  • “Carolina, all they need to do is tie this game against the Bucs and they go to the playoffs at 8-8-1. This is what I live for!” — Simon (32:15)
  • “[The Bucs] take an early lead and then blow the game… they completely blew this game today.” — Chad (32:06)

Additional Game Touches

• Giants win costs them draft position; Raiders unravel in a poor showing.

• Patriots crush the Jets, as rookie QB Drake May throws five TDs, enters MVP conversation.

  • “Drake May… 19-of-21, 90% completion rate. He looks so for real.” — Simon (39:32)

• Colts vs Jaguars:

  • Jags gut out a cover despite multiple deficits and a classic Trevor Lawrence red zone pick.
  • “Credit to Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen… they kept coming back, didn’t panic, didn’t make his usual stupid plays.” — Chad (41:52)

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• “There are 31 other teams. I don’t want to hear your reasoning anymore. Please for the love of God.” — Simon calling for a Titans betting embargo (12:43)
• “Divisional games are always weird. Certain teams voodoo the Jags… Browns, doesn’t matter who’s at QB, they just cover this number.” — Simon (16:52)
• “I feel like an Eagles game that they've played all season… play really well for a quarter… do nothing offensively the rest of the game and rely on the defense.” — Simon (22:48)
• "You win your shitty division, you deserve to be in with home field in round one." — Simon (32:21)
• “Shame, shame, shame on the Tennessee Titans. I mean, I guess it’s shame on me, but really it’s shame on the Tennessee Titans.” — Chad (47:05)

Standout Sections with Timestamps

• Seattle’s Defensive Takeover: 04:51–07:06
• Millman’s Ongoing Titans Regret: 09:26–12:55
• Browns vs Steelers, Defensive Dominance: 15:11–19:13
• Bills-Eagles Endgame & Mistake Analysis: 19:13–24:24
• NFC South Playoff Madness: 32:06–34:09
• Drake May and Patriots’ Breakout Performance: 38:17–41:24
• Jags Grit vs Colts: 41:52–45:30

Heroes and Villains of the Week

Heroes

• Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens):
  • 216 rushing yards, 4 TDs, climbs franchise and league record books.
  • “It’s just, you look through his numbers in his career… when you’re watching a Hall of Famer.” — Simon (52:06)
• Brian Flores (Minnesota Vikings):
  • Transforms the Vikings defense, throttles Detroit’s offense, provides blueprint for a team in QB transition.
  • “My hero of the week is actually Brian Flores because that defense had… the Vikings defense was freaking awesome.” — Chad (54:21)

Villains (Shame Segment)

• Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers):
  • Another meltdown: “Shame on you, Baker… total letdown after letdown.” — Simon (45:37)
• Tennessee Titans Defense:
  • Collapse after a great first half: “Fourth quarter, 14 points allowed… shame, shame, shame on the Tennessee Titans.” — Chad (47:05)

Early Week 18 Betting Leans

• Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Bucs:
  • Both Chad and Simon bet this—value on the underdog in division chaos. (57:37)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Ravens:
  • “Definition of a Tomlin rah rah spot,” they’re grabbing the number. (58:43)
• Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs Packers (resting starters):
  • Early move recommended for value before the line shifts. (60:26)
• Chargers (-5.5) at Denver:
  • Caution noted if Herbert doesn't play; otherwise strong trend supporting Chargers. (61:33)
• Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs Browns:
  • Bengals in “juggernaut” form, worth grabbing early before possible number move. (61:38)

Final Record on Contest Picks (Week 17)

• Wins: Seattle -7.5, Cleveland +3.5
• Losses: Buffalo -1.5, Tennessee +2.5
• Bears +3.5 (pending as episode wrapped)

Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode is characterized by sharp, honest reflection—combining professional betting wisdom, pointed criticism, and deep football context. Simon’s recurring theme: don’t overthink long-established trends (like Titans futility). Chad’s emphasis: beware of chasing recent performance and be quick to adjust strategies. The hosts’ dynamic is energetic, self-deprecating, and packed with actionable advice for NFL bettors looking to finish the regular season strong.

For NFL betting insight and a blend of passionate, researched football talk, this episode is a must-listen as the hosts break down the pivotal, sometimes wild final weeks of the season and look ahead to playoff-impact games.