The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - NFL Week 18 Bets
Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon (Professional Bettor)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Herd’s “Sharp or Square” (presented by Hard Rock Bet) is a must-listen for NFL betting enthusiasts navigating the trickiest week of the season: Week 18. Amid playoff implications, contract incentives, and lineup uncertainties, hosts Chad Millman and Simon break down the entire NFL slate. They address betting angles, sharp vs. public sides, and the narrative chaos unique to this final regular season stretch.

Key Discussion Points & Analysis

Setting the Stage

• Chad returns from illness, rejuvenated after a 2-3 week against the spread and eager for Week 18’s dramatic stakes.
• Quick contest update: “The Big Why” leads the show’s betting contest.
• Discussion starts with creative, AI-driven trade theories involving the Bears and Maxx Crosby, highlighting the overlap of fan dreaming and cap realities.
  • Chad’s take: “I feel like I’ve done Ryan Pace’s job. Bears in the Super Bowl next year.” (05:43)
  • Simon (Bears/Eagles fan): “History repeats itself, right? This is the Khalil Mack all over again.” (05:46)

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdown

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: TB -2.5 (Line moved from -3.5)
• Public betting is on the Panthers; sharp action noted.
• Chad dives into contract incentives (perhaps excessively, drawing Simon’s playful ire).
  • Simon: “Do not tell me Rico [Dowdle] needs 7 more yards to get an incentive. I’m gonna lose my mind. Don’t do this.” (08:22)
• Takeaway: Strong trend for Panthers as dogs after losses—covering spreads by 11 points/game.
• Simon: “Baker is 22-36 ATS at home in his career… second worst in history for profitability.” (10:18)
• Both hosts: Like Panthers, especially if you got +3 or moneyline; lean underdogs given Tampa’s home performance.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: SF +1.5 (Line flip post-Bears game)
• Wise guy money has moved Seattle from +1.5 to being favored; both lean 49ers at home as underdogs, highlighting Shanahan's value in this spot.
  • Simon: “How do we not fade Sam Darnold? … His two matchups vs. SF are in his bottom ten games.” (14:17)
• Touches on Purdy’s December/January dominance at home: 11-3 straight up, 5-0 in January (16:43)
• Chad: Notes Sam Darnold’s incentive for 4,000 yards, but expects him to fall short—a sign to go under on Darnold props.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: ATL -3
• Falcons money pushes line from 2 to 3; Simon expects value on Saints side if it rises to +3.5.
• Narrative centerpiece: “Shuck for OROY” (huge longshot rookie run); implications for history and betting.
  • Simon: “No player’s won OROY at higher than 50-1 since 2009. Shuck was 300-1!” (20:58)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: CIN -7.5
• Both locked in Bengals -7 early, fading Browns’ rookie QB after big win and how poorly they handle ‘success’ weeks.
  • Simon: “Cleveland, 0-6 ATS off a straight-up win since last year—failing to cover by 11+ per game.” (24:43)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

• Spread: NYG +4.5 trending lower
• The hosts hate the game: no strong lean, but would lean Dallas at low point spread, suspecting Sharps see something in Giants matchups.
  • Simon: “I just can’t see Dak not going all out trying to pad his stats in this game.” (27:01)

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

• Spread: HOU -10
• Both wary of side; Riley Leonard starts for Colts, huge number for inconsistent Texans offense. If forced, would take Colts and points.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: JAX sizable favorites
• “No bet”—after bad Titans experience last week and uncertainty about Jags’ motivation and lineup.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: MIN -6.5
• Early movement on Vikings (Flores defense), concern about Packers’ QBs and likely rest: “Backing Flores’ defense against a backup QB feels like the play.” (37:43)
• Note on Vikings TE Josh Oliver’s major incentives – and a tongue-in-cheek prop suggestion for two TDs.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

• Spread: DEN -12.5
• Simon (contrarian): Likes Chargers with Trey Lance starting. Too many points in a likely low-motivation, “backdoor” game.
  • Chad: “If this was full strength, line would be closer to 2.5 or 3. That feels like massive value.” (41:11)

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: LVR +6.5
• Weak motivation, awkward coaching drama in Vegas. No real bet, but Chad highlights contract incentives for Hollywood Brown as possible angles.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: BUF -7
• Josh Allen may play token snap to keep streak alive; otherwise, Trubisky. Neither host trusts Jets’ QB play or likes this number.
  • Simon: “It’s just horrible, the quarterback play.” (45:06)

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: PHI -7
• Heavy situational warning: Philly may rest starters if Bears (who play earlier) lose. If picking, take Commanders +7 on principle.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

• Spread: CHI -2.5 trending to -3
• Good, old-fashioned handicap: Both teams and coaches in “must play to win” mode.
• Chad is bullish on Chicago’s trajectory and confidence; Simon thinks Lions, especially at +3, have the value.
  • Simon: “Dan Campbell as a dog: 29-14 ATS. You just gotta bet it.” (50:15)
• Consensus: Take Lions if you can grab +3.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

• Spread: LAR -7
• “Chad’s Choice” pick: Both like Rams; McVay expects starters to play and Arizona is getting destroyed late in the season.
  • Chad: “This is a get-right spot against a team with no answers defensively.” (53:35)
  • Simon: “McVay, you could hear in his voice, wants this offense to put up 35, 40 points.” (54:50)

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

• Spread: NE -11.5
• Big number, but Patriots offense is rolling; Simon avoids fading them but is hesitant to lay heavy wood—leans Pats before number moves.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday Night Football)

• Spread: PIT +3.5
• “Simon Says” pick: Take Steelers +3.5. Cites epic rivalry trends:
  • Since 2005, underdogs 30-12-3 ATS in the series.
  • Tomlin as dog vs. Harbaugh: 25-7-3 ATS.
  • Simon: “You blindly back the Steelers; you’re a long-term winner.” (68:27)

Notable Quotes

On Incentive Prop Betting

• Chad: “I’m giving you the whole picture… you can play the anytime touchdown but it’s worth parlaying it with yardage totals because he’s going to be going for that million-dollar bonus.” (08:33)
• Simon (joking): “If they’re all like that, I’m gonna lose my mind!” (08:22)

On NFL Betting Trends

• Simon: “Baker is 22-36 ATS at home in his career… second worst in history for profitability.” (10:18)
• Chad: “Since 2005, underdog in [Ravens-Steelers] series: 30-12-3 against the spread. 71%.” (66:09)

On Fan Mentality and Reality

• Chad: “I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged… as a fan, I’m not discouraged.” (49:41)
• Simon: “Dan Campbell as an underdog: 29-14 ATS. When they close as a dog, 23-13. You just gotta bet it.” (50:15)

On Professional Bettor Mindset

• Simon: “Blindly back the Steelers, you’re a long-term winner.” (68:27)

Important Timestamps

• 05:46: Maxx Crosby-to-Bears trade fantasy (“History repeats itself…”)
• 08:22: Simon’s protest against over-detailed contract incentive talk
• 10:18: Baker Mayfield's startling ATS stats at home
• 16:43: Brock Purdy’s dominance in December/January at home
• 20:58: Tyler Shuck’s historic OROY betting run
• 24:43: Browns atrocious ATS numbers off a win
• 37:43: Packers at Vikings - importance of defensive edge and potential QBs
• 41:11: Discussing line value for Chargers/Broncos
• 45:06: “It’s just horrible, the quarterback play.” — Jets/Bills
• 50:15: Citing all the historical Lions/Dan Campbell trends
• 53:35: Rams get-right angle against Arizona
• 66:09: Ravens-Steelers series, Tomlin underdog stats

Featured "Simon Says" and "Chad's Choice" Bets

• Simon Says: Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens (68:27)
• Chad's Choice: Rams -7 at Cardinals (53:01)

Key Takeaways

• Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, and Lions are standout sides, depending on number.
• Prop betting for incentives: Always check for players close to financial milestones in Week 18.
• Be wary of lineup uncertainty; late-breaking news on starters can dramatically swing value.
• Some games (Giants/Cowboys, Colts/Texans, Titans/Jags) are pure stay-aways except in contests.

Tone & Language

• Lively, sharp wit, with deep dives into trends and stats.
• Constant back-and-forth between professional, sharp betting analysis and the fan experience.
• Plenty of jokes about “betting degeneracy” and the agony and ecstasy of NFL Sundays.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode is your roadmap for NFL Week 18 betting—trends, traps, sharp-vs-public lines, and high-value props all put through the hilarious and insightful lens of two pros. Skip the cowherd, skip the ads, stick to the numbers and angles—they’ll guide you straight to a winning card, or at least, let you fade the masses with style.

All analysis and opinions are those of Chad Millman & Simon. Timestamps are approximate for segment reference.