The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 18 REACTIONS"

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" delivers an expert breakdown of NFL Week 18, reviewing betting results, playoff implications, key moments, and the storylines that influenced both wiseguys and squares alike. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter bring wit, frustration, and insight while running through pivotal games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Lions-Bears, Cardinals-Rams, Browns-Bengals, and more. The hosts also offer an unfiltered look at betting heartbreak, celebrate legendary player feats, and gripe about new gambling tax laws.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Week 18 Impressions

• Sloppy Early Games, Thrilling Afternoon Slate
  Chad: “The early games were so disgustingly bad… four total turnovers and a blocked extra point in just the first 15 minutes... But in the afternoon we got some freaking barn burners.” (02:02)

• Their Betting Record
  Chad runs down their 3-1 day with hopes pinned on the Steelers:

  • Wins: New Orleans +3.5, Cincinnati -7.5, Detroit +3.5, Rams -7.5
  • Steelers pending (03:17)

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown and Betting Angles

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

• Game Flow: Turnover-swapping start, Saints error-prone but competitive. Falcons get key special teams TD.

• Notables:

  • Chad: "The Saints were in it, man, that whole game… Only losing because of mistakes and being a bad team." (04:26)
  • Tyler Shough’s impressive moments and rookie of the year debate.
  • Simon: "Kirk [Cousins] was not good today. It's crazy they even won this game." (06:04)

• Betting Takeaway: Sometimes you just bet the number and hope. "You just bet the number, hope it comes through." (07:09)

• Memorable Moment: Chad comparing Shough’s sideline throw to a classic:
  "It was a Carson Palmer witch-nibble throw. He landed it in the crook of Ronnie Bell's elbow..." (07:35)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

• Cleveland Defense's Big Day: Blocked extra points, pick-six, fumble return for TD, stifling Joe Burrow.

• Miles Garrett’s Sack Record:
  Simon: "I did not think he was going to get it… one of those moments you’ll remember for the rest of your life." (03:50)

• Frustration with Bengals and Coaching:
  Chad: "Zach Taylor is truly awful as a coach. I don't want to be the person who wants to throw the remote through the television…" (12:35)

• Betting Heartbreak:
  Simon: "There is a man out there… he took the Cincinnati Bengals and he lost $3 million today." (10:27)

• Key Quote:
  "I'm not just boiling, I'm broiling." – Chad on watching the Bengals under Taylor (12:35)

Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Chicago Bears

• Nerve-wracking for Bears Fans: Lack of playoff confidence, defensive worries.

• Historical Inevitability:
  Simon: "History constantly repeats itself… as soon as they lost that game in Santa Clara, I was like, oh my God, now they're going to lose to Detroit." (15:50)

• Coaching Critique: Dan Campbell’s shift to conservative field goal strategy a big change (16:32)

• Bears' Offense and Caleb Williams:
  Chad: "I love watching Caleb play and he was so magnificent in that fourth quarter… Him and Colston Loveland, that’s going to be a magical connection." (17:48)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

• Game Flow: Rams cruise early, but Arizona’s Brissett and Wilson bring a scare.
• Refs & Big Calls:
  Simon: "Honestly got bailed out by the refs. There was a couple of huge calls." (20:45)
• Stat Chasing and Playoff Implications:
  Chad: "McVay was definitely trying to get it to him… after that fourth touchdown pass … he was in his ear for long enough that they had to cut away to a commercial." (22:49)
• MVP Race Debate—Stafford vs. Drake May:
  Simon: "It's really going to be tough. If I had a vote, I’d give it to Stafford just because of the career. But Drake May… he’s worthy, man." (23:18)

Other Notable Games

• Cowboys' Flop vs. Saints: Hosts relieved they avoided betting Dallas, describe meltdown — "They were terrible. Everything that is wrong with the Cowboys." (26:53)
• Eagles at Commanders:
  "They should have won the game… Eagles were playing backups… Sirianni just gave that game away in a sense." – Simon (29:14)

3. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the agony of betting losses:
  Chad: "I wanted to suffer in my agony… I’m trying to be like a good husband and a good father… Inside, I'm not just boiling, I'm broiling." (12:35)

• On Miles Garrett’s sack record:
  Simon shares Lane Johnson’s awe: "He’s the only player he’s ever gone against where every time, he knows he’s gonna lose 1-on-1..." (13:30)

• Tax Law Rant:
  Simon’s “Shame of the Week” goes to the US Government for new gambling loss taxes.
  "I have left my country… because of this tax law… This is the most un-American tax in our entire existence. This is a country that went to war over tea tax… Now we are paying a 10% tax on our losses with sports betting." (34:24)

4. Heroes and Shames of the Week (38:37)

Shame

• Chad: Zach Taylor (Bengals Head Coach) – "It was cowardly the way he coached this game. I thought it was pathetic. I thought it was an embarrassment." (33:40)
• Simon: The U.S. Government for new gambling taxes – "This is the most un-American tax in our existence…" (34:24)

Hero

• Chad: Tyler Shough (Saints QB) – "Congrats to you on a glorious, glorious season." (38:37)
• Simon: Atlantic City – "Hero of the week. Atlantic City of my life… it was a great six years and I honestly can't believe it's over." (38:53)

5. Playoff Lines and Early Leans (41:59-45:33)

• Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars:
  Simon: "I’m very, very confident on taking this Jaguars team, especially as a home dog in the spot." (41:59)
• Bears move from 1.5 point home dog to favorite over Eagles.
• Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Rams:
  Chad: "I'm not entirely convinced the Panthers are going to be the side… They played well enough for them to go stink it up in the next game." (44:04)
• Patriots (+3.5) at Chargers:
  Simon: "Easiest bet. Grab it now… Patriots fans, in my mind, I’d be excited because it is Herbert who is 0-2 [in the playoffs]." (44:48)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------| | 02:02 | Early game disgust, setting scene | | 03:33 | Bengals vs. Browns/Garrett’s record | | 07:35 | Shough’s rookie magic and that sideline throw | | 10:27 | Survivor pool heartbreak—$3 million lost | | 12:35 | Chad’s frustration with Bengals | | 13:30 | Lane Johnson's quote on Miles Garrett | | 15:50 | Bears-Lions: historical inevitability | | 22:49 | Rams/Stafford stat chase, MVP conversation | | 23:18 | Simon’s MVP vote rationale | | 26:53 | Cowboys meltdown avoided | | 29:14 | Eagles-Commanders and missed opportunity | | 33:40 | Chad’s “Shame of the Week”—Zach Taylor | | 34:24 | Simon’s “Shame of the Week”—US tax law | | 38:37 | Hero of the Week: Tyler Shough | | 38:53 | Hero of the Week: Atlantic City | | 41:59 | Playoff leans: Bills at Jags | | 44:48 | Patriots as playoff dog vs. Chargers |

Tone and Takeaways

• Candid, Emotional, and Analytical: The hosts are equal parts sports fan, bettor, and pundit, veering from honest frustration with coaches and officials to betting tips and humorous rants.
• Recency-Driven Insight: While they bemoan the lack of clean football or discuss playoff optimism, both never lose their big-picture betting sharpness.
• Gambling-Focused: Betting strategy, contest performance, and tax law changes share center stage with on-field results.

Final Thoughts

This episode is a must-hear for fans wanting a sharp, entertaining NFL wrap-up filled with insider betting wisdom, heroics, heartbreaks, and a dash of regulatory outrage. Chad and Simon’s unique chemistry and no-holds-barred takes capture the agony and ecstasy of NFL Week 18.