The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 Bets"
Episode Date: September 9, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet
Podcast Network: The Volume / iHeartPodcasts
Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square" is a deep dive into NFL Week 2 betting, where Chad and Simon break down every game on the slate. Their mission: help "squares" (casual bettors) think sharper, while giving "sharps" (professionals) content worth their time. The two hosts review last week's results, clarify their pick release schedule, and break down matchups with a keen eye for betting value, line movement, and betting psychology, including stats, trends, and the nuances of contest play.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Show and Betting Structure Clarification [01:00–03:56]
- Chad opens by celebrating a successful debut week ("top 10 sports podcast") and reviews listener confusion about the pick schedule and contest lines.
- Final five picks are released on the Sunday morning show, based on Wednesday-locked lines in their betting contest.
- Thursday night bets are called out specifically.
"The contest we play in locks lines on Wednesdays, so we are going to be playing off of those lines... Sorry for the confusion." — Chad [02:15]
Thursday Night Football: Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) [03:56–07:14]
- Both lean toward the Packers as short-week home favorites and express doubts about over-valuing Green Bay.
- Simon likes Packers at -3 (especially home Thursday favorites), but acknowledges value on Washington above +3.
- Concerns about Commanders' O-line; Daniels’ ability to convert long second downs is noted.
"If we're going Green Bay here, I'd take the three. I don't think this would be in our contest." — Simon [06:09]
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) [07:14–11:55]
- Dramatic line movement from Bengals -5.5 to -3 after poor showing.
- Chad’s model (built over the summer) and "contrarian" trend favor Bengals, but he’s hesitant to make it a best bet; Simon says the matchup is rough for CIN O-line but would take Bengals at -2.5.
"If me and Chad are stuck in a three or two and a half in our contest, I'm not forcing the Jaguars in here. It's just all about the number..." — Simon [10:20]
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) [11:59–18:48]
- Chad bet Miami early but has regrets, overwhelmed by negative news (Tyreek Hill's off-field issues, no secondary, O-line struggles).
- Simon is adamant: no logical reason to back Miami right now; sees more "bounce back" potential with New England, but doesn't love either side.
"There is just no logical reason to back this team..." — Simon [14:21]
- Chad introduces the "Killer Sports" database: teams off 20+ point loss since 2015 cover 54% — a small reason not to bail on Miami completely, but "not making me like the Dolphins anymore."
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New Orleans Saints [18:48–23:44]
- Major line drop from -7 to -4 due to Brock Purdy and George Kittle injuries; Chad passes on this game at current numbers.
- Simon would have liked Saints at +7, but not at +4; advice is to be patient and watch injury news.
"If we're lucky in this line locks a four and a half like in contest ... by kickoff this is down to two and a half three, that's going to be a long hard thought." — Simon [21:35]
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) [23:44–28:35]
- Line moved from -12.5 to -10.5 with sharp money flooding Cleveland. If it drops under 10, Chad prefers Ravens.
- Both praise Browns’ defense as possibly better than Buffalo’s.
"Their defense was ... so dominant situationally and overall against the Bengals." — Chad [26:16]
- Historical trend: double-digit divisional dogs only cover at 43% since 2015.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) [32:09–37:10]
- Both hosts are on Dallas; Dak’s dominance against bad teams is a theme.
- Simon calls this a "bad matchup for the Giants," expects public to be heavy on Dallas, pros to buy Giants — but he won’t be tempted until +7.
"Dak beats the out of bad teams, especially in his own division. This Giants team is a bad team." — Simon [33:31]
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5) [37:10–43:15]
- Simon urges Bears fans not to panic; Chad skeptical about Detroit’s offensive line and game management.
- Both see the line as appropriate, prefer to wait on more info.
"At the end of the day, it's on Caleb [Williams]... And that's my fear here." — Simon [39:14]
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) [44:11–49:39]
- Line plummeted from 8.5 to 6.5 after Bills’ win and Jets’ scrappy performance.
- Chad leans Bills but Simon calls it "definitely square"; Jets’ run game could punish banged-up Buffalo D.
- Both acknowledge timing: "value is gone" at 6.5.
"If you're hearing this right now, go grab it. That's good value on this Colts team, but it's not. Simon says. No, that's a free one. It's just a gift." — Simon [57:40]
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) [49:39–55:33]
- This is Chad’s "Chad Loves Love" pick of the week: Seattle +3.
- Both unimpressed with Pittsburgh, love Seahawks’ ability to keep it close.
"Chad loves, love. He loves the Seattle Seahawks. Plus three. What?" — Chad [51:41]
- Simon is hoping line moves in public’s favor for even more value.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+2) [55:33–57:40]
- Simon loved Colts at +3, still takes +2 but expects public to come in late on Denver.
- Strong value early, but contest line will be less attractive.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) [57:40–60:36]
- Both refuse to force a play on Carolina despite the "sharp side" angle, citing the Panthers’ glaring issues.
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6) [61:27–64:00]
- Simon is eyeing Tennessee if line is 6+, loving the matchup for them — particularly skeptical of public support for L.A.
"This was almost, almost Simon says. But I'm trying to be patient." — Simon [61:27]
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (+1) [64:00–68:35]
- Line flipped Eagles -1.5 to Chiefs +1; Simon and Chad like Eagles’ balance, think KC is in bad spot with O-line and skill injuries.
- Simon hesitates as it feels "too chalky" and like "walking into a trap," but sees Eagles with more ways to win.
"I just, I can't get over the fact is it, is it a Chief spot? This is not the same Chiefs team of old that me and you blindly back." — Simon [66:56]
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) [68:35–72:16]
- Simon’s "Simon Says" Best Bet: Vikings -4.5
- Public and early sharp money like Atlanta, but Simon believes matchup and number favor the Vikings, especially with "J.J. Moxie" (McCarthy) at QB.
"Simon says, give me the Vikings minus four and a half." — Simon [69:43]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5) [72:16–75:42]
- Both baffled by line movement toward Houston; suspect pros are in love with Texans’ defense.
- Simon wants to consult more before making a call; Tampa seen as scrappy underdog, but "could be suckers" if they back them.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) [75:42–79:05]
- Line down to 3 after opening 3.5; both see Raiders +3.5 as sharp, but have no strong opinion at 3.
- Simon notes Justin Herbert’s swagger and improved late-game performance as X-factors ("That was everything we've been waiting to see, right?").
Highlighted Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Chad on betting psychology:
"The key to winning at betting sometimes is catching the wave before it crests. And we’re trying to do that with the Chiefs right now." [68:35] - Simon on betting the public side:
"Love this spot for a team that, you know, the Rams, they're skating, right. They won their game, so they're not getting much hate. But they didn't look that good against Houston like that." [63:14] - Chad’s "Chad Loves Love" pick:
"Chad loves, love. He loves the Seattle Seahawks. Plus three. What?" [51:41] - Simon’s "Simon Says" pick:
"Simon says, give me the Vikings minus four and a half." [69:43] - Simon on Miami:
"There is just no logical reason to back this team..." [14:21] - Chad on Commanders’ QB Daniels:
"He had second and very long second and 15, second and 19, and within two plays, he was converting that into first downs. And everything about him, nothing seems chaotic. It all seems doable." [06:13]
Important Timestamps
- [01:00] — Explaining weekly show/pick structure and contest picks
- [03:56] — Packers-Commanders analysis (Thursday Night Football)
- [07:14] — Jags-Bengals deep breakdown
- [11:59] — Patriots-Dolphins betting regrets and logic
- [18:48] — Niners’ injuries, Saints analysis
- [23:44] — Browns-Ravens line movement, historical spread trends
- [32:09] — Giants-Cowboys, Dak impact, Giants’ struggles
- [37:10] — Bears-Lions, rookie QBs, concerns on both teams
- [44:11] — Jets-Bills, line shifts, losing betting value
- [49:39] — Seahawks-Steelers, "Chad Loves Love"
- [55:33] — Broncos-Colts, Simon's value spot
- [57:40] — Panthers-Cardinals, why not to blindly take the dog
- [61:27] — Rams-Titans sharp side
- [64:00] — Eagles-Chiefs, when not to auto-bet Mahomes as dog
- [68:35] — Falcons-Vikings, "Simon Says"
- [72:16] — Bucs-Texans, puzzling market move
- [75:42] — Chargers-Raiders, importance of the hook
Segment Summaries & "Sharp/Square" Verdicts
Sharp Side Calls:
- Saints at +7 (if it returns there), Colts +2/3, Panthers at +7 (if available), Tennessee +6+, Raiders +3.5
Square Side Cautions:
- Dolphins (too many reasons to fade), Bills at -6.5 (lost early value), Eagles at PK or favorite (could be "trap" public side)
Brass Tacks / Best Bets:
- Chad Loves Love: Seattle +3 at Pittsburgh
- Simon Says: Minnesota -4.5 vs. Atlanta
Final Thoughts
This episode is dense with value for bettors—showing the importance of timing, understanding line movement, contest logistics, and tracking both public sentiment and sharp money. The ongoing banter, digging into past models/trends, and self-awareness about square vs. sharp tendencies keep the show lively and useful both to pros and recreational bettors alike.
Look out for Thursday's episode for official pick releases, deeper injury updates, survivor picks, and head-to-head battles.
"Feedback is a gift. Love you." — Chad [79:47]