← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more
01:19:54
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
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- [00:23]
Chad Millman
That's Lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter.
- [00:55]
Simon Hunter
Hello.
- [00:56]
Chad Millman
So I'm in.
- [00:57]
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing my brother?
- [01:00]
Chad Millman
Listen, you sound so much better than you did when I spoke to you Yesterday at like 5 in the afternoon when it may have been the first time you were sleeping in about 48 hours. Great first week. Great first week working with our friends at the Volume who just crushed our launch across audio, video, social media. Great first week with listeners and watchers old and new. Simon, we're generally a top 10 sports podcast right now, which is insane. Great first week betting went 4 and 1 in our contest plays overall winning week for both of us across the board. I think with the one I got some, some criticism, I got some feedback which is a gift and we like it. So we do need to do a better job of letting people know how to find those picks and being clear of what they are. So here's how it's gonna go. I know we had some confusion this past week, part of the kinks that we're working out and sort of the, the crazy transition onto the volume. But we will go. We will give our final five picks in our Sunday morning show. That is where you can get them. You're going to be able to get that on YouTube. You're going to be able to get that in your audio feeds. It's posted in the morning with plenty of time to listen or watch and get what those final five picks are. The contest we are playing in locks lines on Wednesdays so we are going to be playing off of those lines. Some confusion. How did we get Baltimore plus one and a half in the contest when the game closed minus one. But the contest we play in lines lock on Wednesday. If we make a Thursday night selection, we will let people know on the Thursday show, on the Sunday show that we Will let people know via social. Sorry for the confusion. All right, Simon, you won the Sharper Square segment. Forgot. I think you had Tennessee. I had Miami, which we will get to. We won Brass balls. Ann. Simon says we lost Chad loves love. We lost Rock in a hard place. Brutal beat with the Ravens Survivor. We had Danver, who definitely made us earn it. Don't forget, you can get the show Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe like the video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on apple pod, Spotify, etc. All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Let's get after it. Thursday Night Football Washington at Green bay. Green Bay, 3 1/2 point favorite. Look, packers were pretty awesome against the Lions last week. There are always two stories to this, right? The Lions were not effective offensively. Part of that was their own undoing. Part of that was the packers pressure. Micah Parsons only played half the snaps. I think he played 29 of the 65 snap snaps. He had a sack and three pressures, including one that led to an interception. Simon, like you nailed the commander's analysis. Against the Giants, Jaden Daniels would be able to neutralize their pressure, but he was generally mediocre. So what are your thoughts here right now? I don't. I don't have a strong opinion on this. I'd probably lean packers just because home teams have a little bit of an advantage in the short week on Thursday night. Historically.
- [04:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's how I look at this one. It's like, I actually really like the packers and it's just because they're at home. Short week for Washington, and I think we're both on the same page. Our fear with the packers is are we not overvaluing them at this point.
- [04:41]
Chad Millman
Where it's like, of course we are.
- [04:43]
Simon Hunter
You know, they. They had probably until Josh Allen's game, the biggest win, in my opinion of that Sunday, where it's like, that was impressive, right, because they didn't play, in my opinion, that great. They were just that dominant, though, that even on the day didn't have their A game offensively or defensively. They pretty much did whatever they wanted on both sides of the ball. So, yeah, this, this is really about the line. Hard Rock right now is, you know, in New Jersey, it's minus 3, you know, minus 120 on Green Bay. I'll take that value because like Chad said, it's. It's the home team. Like, we, we love dogs here. But on Thursday night, I Do adjust to it. I do like taking the favorites and I do like taking my key numbers. So if you're someone out there and you're like, why I want to take watching a three and a half. Yeah, there's Shop around, there's three and a half's out there. Hard Rock might go back to three and a half. It's I. I get your position, right. It's Daniels as a dog greater than three. It's been pretty profitable in his young career at that number. But I just think this Green Bay team, if they can just keep it rolling, they're just such a better team altogether than Washington. Right. Washington. It's really questionable about their offensive line. As good as they were in some aspects locked against the Giants. They have some young guys up front and some new faces on their offensive line. And you did see Daniels moved out of the pocket a lot and tried to struggle moving the ball downfield. So yeah, Chad, I'm right there with you. It's. If we're going Green Bay here, I'd take the three. I don't think this would be in our context. I'm assuming this will be three and a half in the contest.
- [06:13]
Chad Millman
Here's what was interesting to me about the Commanders because I did a little bit of deep dive on this game yesterday. Like, they weren't awesome. Jaden Daniels wasn't great, but they were just so much more talented and the Giants were so incompetent. Jaden Daniels had multiple drives in that game where he had second and very long second and 15, second and 19, and within two plays, he was converting that into first downs. And everything about him, nothing seems chaotic. It all seems doable. Right. There's just like some quarterbacks. We saw this a little bit with Lamar before, before the chaos at the end where it's so scary to bet against them because they can convert in the most challenging of situations. So I get why people would want to lean into the Commanders. Right now, I'm just leaning into the team at home. That's a field goal favorite.
- [07:14]
Simon Hunter
Yep. Right there with you.
- [07:16]
Chad Millman
All right. This is a really interesting game to me. Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a three point favorite at Hard Rock. And. And it had been trending towards that number. It opened at three and a half and has been going. Actually opened at five and a half and had been going down, down, down. Look, the Jags were goodish against a much less talented team. You know, I think we put that win in the category of they did what they're supposed to do and the Bengals straight up should have lost on Sunday. They had fewer than half as many yards as the Browns. They averaged almost 2 yards less per play. They had half as many first downs. Joe Burrow completed 14 passes for 113 yards, average 3.85 yards per attempt. Even with multiple third and fourth down drops by the Browns, the Bengals defense still allowed the Browns to go 11 of 19 on third and fourth down conversions. Like if you're a Browns fan, this is truly sickening. Here's my problem. I think this has been way over adjusted five and a half down to three at this point. Like this was five and a half until Sunday at 6pm and it dropped two points because of the way the Bengals played. Dude, am I crazy for liking the Bengals here?
- [08:53]
Simon Hunter
You're not at the number, I agree. But there are three and a half's out there. Like I honestly was coming in here I was hoping we'd take the Jaguars, but like you said, the number is moving too much. Probably going to get the two and a half by the way it's going right now because that's, that's some real professional money now that's coming heavy on this Jaguar side and they were spot on last week. So it's hard for me to sit here and doubt them when they're taking a position on this team and they nailed it last week in this matchup and you're really breaking it down. This isn't that great of a match for the Bengals. Right? There are guys on the defensive line of the Jaguars that can give them major problems. Like that's as much as you want to bash Joe Burrow because yes, seven yards for a guy who many say is top five in the NFL at the quarterback position, pretty embarrassing, let's be honest. And does fall on him a little bit. Like you can't just make a quick read to get a first down with one of the best receivers in all football. It was a bad look. So you know your, your opinion on the Bengals. This is probably a nice buy low spot. So I get why you're like the minus three. I just, I go back and watch that film and it just looks very scary where their defense is terrible, there are gaping holes running and I don't think either of us thinks Stefanski's, you know, on the same level as Liam Cohen as an offensive mind. So if his run game worked, I would think the Jags have an advantage in this matchup of their run game and the run blocking skimming offense as bad as Trevor Lawrence looks at some points if he has a good run game, we've seen him really be good and play action and be able to push the ball downfield. So, yeah, I get where you're coming from. The three and a half, to me is the difference. Three and a half. I'm. I'm there on the Jaguars. If me and Chad are stuck in a three or two and a half in our contest, I'm. I'm not forcing the Jaguars in here. It's just all about the number because I think we're both weary of this Jaguars team being overvalued at such a dominant week one.
- [10:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, there's. There's actually trends that back taking the Bengals here, you know, when two good teams are playing each other and one team is off a blowout win and one team won by a very small number, historically, you want to take the team that won by the very small number. It's sort of flashing red for me, actually flashing green. Simon, you know that I spent the summer working on, like, various models and systems and stuff with my Harvard stats intern. And this is one of the games that the. The model is saying, bet, bet, bet. I'm a little hesitant because it's a little different when it's one game into the season versus five games into the season. So I'm not rushing.
- [11:32]
Simon Hunter
And the trend. Right. The. The. Sean, we talked about the borough trend of one in nine straight up. I believe in the first two weeks. That's scary.
- [11:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah.
- [11:41]
Simon Hunter
That's a real thing.
- [11:42]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So, like, to me, Eileen, Bengals here just because of the number, but I don't. I don't want to play it aggressively. I have not made a bet on it. I don't care about it in the contest. It just was interesting to me.
- [11:55]
Simon Hunter
Two and a half might be unavoidable once it hits that number. How do you not take the Bengals at this point?
- [12:00]
Chad Millman
You're going to have to. The Bengals offensive line was terrible, and granted, the Browns defense was amazing. But you made a very good point. Like Josh Hines, Allen is a fierce pass rusher. And if even if nothing else in the Jaguars defense is great, he can create pressure that will be destroyed, disruptive to the Bengals and make their offensive line really, really challenged. So scary. It's a scary game. It's a weird game to want to dive into deeply as a better. Oh, dude. New England at Miami. Miami is a one and a half point favorite. Look, I said this on the Sunday show. This opened at one and a half. It got bid up to two and a half when it got up to two and a half. There was one one and a half still out there. So I grabbed the one and a half and it started moving back in the Dolphins direction. Because yesterday, apparently everyone watched film and ran their models and realized, you know what? You've known for months. The Dolphins team has no secondary. It has no offensive line. If Tua can't get his first read, if he's in total shock mode, Mike McDaniels might be out of tricks. And, oh, by the way, it was reported this morning that Tyree Kill has been accused of domestic violence by his estranged wife. I was a manager executive for a long time between ESPN in action and like, I know what it's like when you are trying to run an organization and everything is going badly because of the choices you made. Like when the things you can control are going badly, I totally get it. But when the things that you can't control are going badly, I'm just imagining Mike McDaniel's face as soon as he heard this news. He's like, you gotta be freaking kidding me. I don't. I've bet the Dolphins already. I'm not looking to invest any more in it. Please help me get out of this.
- [14:15]
Simon Hunter
You can't be helped. The fact you're already betted just shows you can't be helped. It's. I get it, what you're doing. You're just. You're betting on the team that looked the worst on week one, that got blown out, and everyone's killing them in national media. It could work for you, but there, to me, there is just no logical reason to back this team where it just feels like, this isn't the spot. These aren't the spots where this team turns around. I think when they get a new head coach, whatever it is, maybe in week nine and 10, they have some couple redemption games because like we said, they do have talent in some spots. Like, you know, a really good running back. They have pretty good receivers to as lost as he's looked. Me and Chad have seen him look like a comparable quarterback. You know, it's. It's just so bad, so negative. And, you know, talking about being checked out on your head coach, I think they've been checked out. And that's the fear here is, is he going to motivate them here? Because in my mind, for them, if they just eat this game, I think they think he could be out after the game, right? This is at home. They've already been embarrassed. Week one, there was a reason he was the Favorite right to be first head coach fired. So yeah, it's bad. And when I look across the field at Rabel, I feel like this is the perfect kind of spot for him and his team where they're bad as well. New England, I think we talked a little about that coming of the year where it's like I, I think they just got too much hype based on their schedule. I was. And we talk about it like they were looked at as an easy team to everyone else while the Patriots were like oh look how easy our schedule is. It's like you guys are an easy team so you know they have weaknesses if Christian Gonzalez is in this game, if they have their defense fully healthy. And in my mind this is a much better bounce back spot for Drake May than it was playing that Raiders in that first game where they just look like they were honestly out coached by Pete Carroll and his group like preparedness wise offensively. I mean, you know Chad knows my love for Gino. That just all worked so well for them. I think it's so negative here. This feels like a type of spot Brable gets his guys. Right. That's why I just like again Chad was on the other episode side when this got to two and a half I immediately hit the Patriots side again. Same as you though, just dipping my toes in because I don't know how involved I would even want to be in this game because it's just. I hate, I hate, I just hate this Miami team so much because like you think in your own mind this could be a spot where they bounce back. So I'm not going to make us force in the Patriots but I can clearly see we're both on opposite sides in this game.
- [16:43]
Chad Millman
Well, I'm not on any side in this game otherwise I'm only, I'm only. I made a mistake. Like we all make mistakes. Like I've made. What did I say this season? I was not going to.
- [16:54]
Simon Hunter
I get where you're coming from. I get where your view is on this one because again that was so embarrassing. Just.
- [17:00]
Chad Millman
It was so embarrassing. And look there, there's a, there's a website that's great that's called Killer Sports. And I discovered. I don't know if you know it or not, Simon.
- [17:09]
Simon Hunter
No, but I just love you get on the Internet and going on weird sites.
- [17:12]
Chad Millman
So killer Sports. I discovered it when I was hanging with this guy who's professional better who lives in Costa Rica and we were sitting on his couch all day and watching games and anytime we started talking Sort of in depth about a game or a team. It could be college football, could be baseball, could be NFL. And we were talking about how does this team do? Or how does this pitcher do? He would just go to killer sports. And there's a search bar and you could type in using real language. You know, anything you're interested in finding out about betting on teams. And. And it's got this database that goes back 36 years.
- [17:47]
Simon Hunter
Oh, it's amazing.
- [17:48]
Chad Millman
So I just typed in like NFL teams after a blowout of 20 points or more. I think I did since 2015, because to me, as much data as there is available on sort of betting, 2015 is when the extra point move back, right? And so it changed how teams go for two, and it changed what key numbers are a little bit. So I use that as sort of the line of demarcation. Since 2015, teams off a 20 point loss covered a 54% rate. So I have that in the back of my head as I'm going through these matchups. It's not making me like the Dolphins anymore. I think that if we're talking about two teams off a loss that need to make adjustments, Vrabel is going to have his team more ready than Mike McDaniels. But that is, that is a note to consider. Miami Dolphins.
- [18:49]
Simon Hunter
Got you.
- [18:50]
Chad Millman
That's it. That's it. San Francisco at New Orleans. Look, there's news here, right? Hard Rock Bad has this line at San Francisco -4. It was at 7. And obviously there's Brock Purdy. Injury news. His status this weekend is uncertain because of toe and injury issues. George Kittle is out because of the hamstring issue already. Like, the Niners are suffering the injury bug that they tend to suffer every year, which is just a bummer because they're always so talented and I feel badly for this franchise. But look, now the number's down to four. Pretty big. Pretty big move. All of it's a pass for me. Like, I'm not betting on Mac Jones as a favorite on the road. I'm not betting on the Saints as a short home dog. No, thanks.
- [19:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, his number is moving and it was a game we were honestly probably going to be on. Like, I, I liked how the Saints played in that corners game. I know they didn't cover, but they had so many opportunities to do it again. They're just a bad team. That's why they didn't cover. It's just pretty simple. And I pretty, pretty much been on brand with my 49ers team. I think they are talented, but I think they're have a lot of growing pains and unfortunately for them, they're not going to be able to go through those growing pains. Right. The injury bug is already hitting this team, which is just brutal. And you know, this is the type of game where I would have just hoped and prayed that Purdy played because this would have been a huge, huge pick in survivor contests and this felt like a trap game coming in and because again that 49ers win over the Seahawks, that's a huge emotional win on the road against a divisional opponent. Like this was a bad spot for this 49ers team. And now like Chad just said, Hard Rock here in Jersey, they're four and a half. They're going down to four most books. So you know the number is moving towards the four from the four and a half. That just shows where the professional money is and it shows that I don't think they think Purdy is going to play. And I don't have an opinion on it now because the numbers moved so much that if Pretty doesn't play, it's Mac Jones that's a big deal. Like what does so special on that team is his legs. Like what he can do with his legs. So yeah, I think we can be patient here, Chad. If, if we're lucky in this line locks a four and a half like in contest like most of you. And by kickoff this is down to two and a half three. That's going to be a long hard thought. You know, Spencer Rattler over Mac Jones in this matchup here because again on paper Kamar and McCaffrey. McCaffrey obviously is better but in their systems pretty similar running backs, right? Catching out of the backfield, really versatile weapons. Like there's a lot of counter them on. On the offense and then defensively we saw that Saints, they're. They got a lot of veterans, right? Like they have a lot of guys that are still there that have been there for a long time that produce. So I don't know. I'm trying not to get too into this now because the line could go right back up to seven if Purdy's cleared. So this is a game. Be patient if you want to grab the four and a half on the Saints. Now just because the, the professionals are moving this to four. I. I can't hate. I can't fight John. I'm probably most likely doing it once we get off this call.
- [22:07]
Chad Millman
You know, the, the injury for Purdy is a shoulder and a toe. The.
- [22:13]
Simon Hunter
Apparently the Toe is worse.
- [22:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I was gonna, that's what I was just gonna say. The reports are that the toe is significantly worse than. And to your point about him being a mobile quarterback who can make plays and sort of keep plays alive with his legs, that's huge. Like if, even if it's a hindrance for the next four, five, six, seven, whatever weeks, that's something that's going to impact them. One thing, the Niners had a terrible game rushing the ball against the Seahawks. We're going to get into the Seahawks and the Steelers in a minute. But, but they could get healthy, so to speak, rushing against the Saints, who just gave up 150 yards on the ground to the Cardinals. Right. Like the, the Niners in every way. Even if it's Mac Jones and they can crowd the box, the Saints can. The Niners will find a way to be more effective running the ball. The Saints. I do.
- [23:06]
Simon Hunter
I was like, I don't know again, I, I just have questions about that offensive line and just the 49ers. I think people saw that. You know, if you rewatch that game, it was all a party that bailed them out. Right. That was a. Either going to be a pick in the end zone or a touchdown. A 50, 50 ball at the end of a game and then a very, very well timed bosa pushing alignment into, you know, get that sack, strip sack at the end of the game on Darnold, which you know, sealed the game. So it's like there are two big time studs stepped up at the end of the game and they now they might not have Purdy, a guy they desperately need. It's just something to keep in mind how big of a deal he is to that team.
- [23:45]
Chad Millman
Oh, it was totally fluky that they covered that game. They had no right winning the game, let alone.
- [23:51]
Simon Hunter
That's. That's why I love superstar players. Right. They show up in those moments and that's why you, you win those big games.
- [23:58]
Chad Millman
Cleveland at Baltimore line is ten and a half. Look, this was at twelve and a half on Sunday.
- [24:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's moving, it's moving.
- [24:07]
Chad Millman
It went down to 11 and a half and then yesterday went back up to 12 and a half. And then all of a sudden, just this morning there's been a rush on the Browns and it's moved back down to ten and a half. I know the side that we want to play here is the Browns. Right. I don't love it as much as I thought I would.
- [24:31]
Simon Hunter
No. Oh, I love it. I love this match of The Browns, but obviously it's all about the number. If we can get nine and a half, I'm happy to flip to the Ravens. Right. I have this right at 10. So still 10 and a half. I do like Cleveland, but I'm, I, I'm in the same boat of, like, if the public absolutely was hammering the Ravens and this I got up to 13, 13 and a half would have loved. It would have been Simon says, most likely, like, I don't care. Taking them back to back weeks because it's like we're just playing the value here. So the number early line movement to me is right. It should have been Cleveland money early here like that. The Ravens are really talented. They're really good. It's a divisional game. It's a divisional game in a spot where, you know, we're probably getting value on Cleveland because they should have won. Like, they should have won. This number probably should be under 10. And, you know, if they went by a touchdown or a field, whatever would have been. It would have been a big movement to this line because I think the public would have been much more respectful of this Cleveland team. But like we talked about, the public is getting smarter people on espn, other shows, you know, it's not all brain rot. Some info they're giving out is good. And the info they're giving out is how dominant that Brown's defense was against the Bengals, which is that a Bengals thing? We're about to find out this week. It was that a Bengals problem or was that Cleveland's defense being that good? So, you know, at this number, I like it. This is. This is a better defense than the Bills, that's for damn sure. So they obviously don't have the MVP of Josh Allen. That's why we're getting ten and a half. So not going to force it in. Like, we like Cleveland side. If it gets under 10, we can have a conversation about the Ravens because at that point, the disrespect is too far. And this is still, you know, the number one, number two seed in the afc.
- [26:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, you just took the words out of my mouth. The Bills pass rush totally wreaked havoc on the Ravens on Sunday night. And the Browns are better at every level than the Bills. Defensively, they're better. Yeah, their. Their secondary is so much better. Their pass rush is so much better. Their defense was, you know, it's hard to quantify all of the ways in which their defense was so dominant situationally and overall against the Bengals. Like, they made Joe Burrow look like he was a rookie playing in his first game. They were just freaking brilliant.
- [26:58]
Simon Hunter
Literally. We joked, but it was literally almost impossible to lose that game. And they did lose it. It's incredible.
- [27:05]
Chad Millman
That's just because it's Cleveland.
- [27:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but mathematically you've seen all the numbers where it's like 2 and 300. All these teams, what the Bengals were in that exact spot. Now they're the third team ever to win. Getting seven yards in the second half.
- [27:17]
Chad Millman
I'm going to give you a stat though. Ready? Are you ready?
- [27:23]
Simon Hunter
Ready.
- [27:24]
Chad Millman
Since 2015, double digit road dogs in the division only cover 43% of the time.
- [27:36]
Simon Hunter
So yeah, not the best spot. But again, still, still love it a little bit. But like we said, we're. I'm hoping, honestly this goes to Ravens nine and a half.
- [27:44]
Chad Millman
That's what I would prefer.
- [27:45]
Simon Hunter
That would, that would be. That would be the spot to back.
- [27:47]
Chad Millman
I'd rather, honestly, I'd rather bet the Ravens in single digits at this point than bet the Browns at double digit dogs.
- [27:56]
Simon Hunter
But that, that Ravens defense, they came out slow last year. Who knows what they'll be this year. But it's, it's hanging on me, Chad. This exact spot last year, Raiders ten point dogs.
- [28:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Oh, I remember.
- [28:11]
Simon Hunter
So it's, It's a weird thing with this team. I don't know if it's. It's. I guess it can be put on a horrible. Right? I think at the end of the day this all has to be put on horrible. He's got arguably the best running back, best quarterback tandem ever. So it's just weird. They keep losing these games where they have huge leads and yeah, we expect the bounce back spot here. So I think we're in line here. If it's nine and a half, we'll have a real decision to make.
- [28:36]
Chad Millman
Yep. Yep. All right, let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated Hard Rock BET sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock BET is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and is also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado, with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock Bets online casino. If you were in New Jersey, Simon. I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use Hard Rock bat lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from you in our future as we gear up for NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet. You'll get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-888- admit it in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, we're looking at the Giants in Dallas. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point favorite. This number has been moving in the direction of the Giants. Little surprised, to be honest, that there would be any enthusiasm for the Giants at all after this past week. They seem like they could compete with the Dolphins for worst record in the NFL because I don't know what they're going to do on offense. They already look like they are falling apart on the sidelines. Russell Wilson was just dreadful, right? I was actually pretty encouraged by the Cowboys on Thursday night. Like you could see in these games for these two teams over the weekend how a team with a mediocre roster can be better in competitive with a very good quarterback and how a bad quarterback can just bring that whole team down. And you called it in the preseason about how good Dak is. It just changes everything for a quarter for a team when that quarterback can make plays. And so to me, I like, you know, this line actually exploded on Sunday and there's been some buyback, probably lean Dallas here.
- [32:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, love Dallas. And you know that that week one I got so many messages about why I bet so heavy Week one and we've talked about it, right? It's just if I can bet something for months at a time, it's easy for me to get a lot of money down. And the Cowboys that was a rare opportunity. We talked. That was seven, opened at seven. And I kept saying it's just this is not a Dak line. Like people just forget the talent of Dak because he was hurt. And man, did I almost have egg on my face. Because you don't ever expect Parsons trade. And that was the scariest part of that line where it's like, you know, I wanted to see what their defense was going to be like obviously without Parsons because to me we saw it against Eagles like there was no pass rush without them like totally neutralized. He is by far the best player in that defense. How would that. Why would they get rid of this guy? Like you told you saw it in that Eagles game. It is a big deal. Right. And you can say, well, they came out, they made adjustments in the defense played way better, especially against the run, which was, that was the biggest deal. Right. They wanted to prove against run. You saw that. So you know, the hesitation about this Cowboys team, that would be it. Right. We don't really still know what they are, but to me it's again being confident in why I'm betting this. I have this number at seven. So this is really about Dak. Dak beats the out of bad teams, especially in his own division. This Giants team is a bad team. And you know, you saw people trying to force their doubt like their Giants love this off season and you know, talk about how good their D line is. There are so many other aspects to a team besides the D line. That's why I, I thought their draft pick was dumb. A dude card is incredible talent. I get you have to take them. Your offensive line is so bad. It is three, four years away from being fixed. If you're the Giants and you knew you were taking dart late in the first, like to me you trade down at least from that pick and you get offensive linemen because we've seen that's, that's, that's the problem around this Giants team. Russell Wilson had no time. I mean neighbors is losing his mind. That offense is putrid. I mean this might have to be our survivor pick because when else are we going to use Dallas in this exact spot? Right, Right. Dallas at home coming off a game they should have won. You know, CD gifted that win to that Eagles team that they lost that game 30 different ways. That Eagles team like that was such a Dallas win. You know, between the fumble, the untimely fumble and the drops by cd I can't imagine what their practice like this week. And just Dak knows they cannot be going 02, let alone let this be a close game. I see them rolling. I love this number. It's going to be probably the most public line. I like this week, right the minus five and a half, minus six. So I like that the pros are buying back on the Giants. They can't quit them. They're like you with Miami. They just can't quit it. And I see what they see, but man, this just feels like a bad spot and a bad match for the Giants team, which we talked about. Their schedule is just so brutal. There's no week off every week. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. And this is another bad week. So, yeah, I'm not there yet on this Giants team. Seven and a half if it gets there. Yes, I like Giants, but under seven, this is, I think we're in, you know, in sync. This is totally a Dallas line and a good number.
- [35:37]
Chad Millman
It's so weird how so many wise guys were playing the Giants against the commanders.
- [35:42]
Simon Hunter
Big money too. Big money.
- [35:44]
Chad Millman
You were all over the commanders and everybody was piling into the Giants. This was the stat, the most telling stat to me out of that game. The Giants had 11 scoring opportunities with plays inside the 10 yard line. Four of them from the three yard line. They failed on all 11. Like they're fallen. They were falling apart before our eyes. Any other game, the commanders were. Any other. The commanders play any other team, any them of and that's a close game. Like they were. They were keeping them in the game. And the Giants could not figure out a way to capitalize on anything. They just looked completely lost. It's like the hall of Fame legacy for Russell Wilson, you know, when he was at peak leaving Seattle. Every year just gets worse and worse and worse for Russell Wilson. We owe people a. Simon says. We owe people a. Chad loves love. This feels a little too square for me to go. Chad loves love. But the way you talk about it, I'm tempted and it's sort of in the range of what I'd like to bet teams like that, three to nine. So it's interesting.
- [37:06]
Simon Hunter
Very definitely tempted with the five and a half because that's. That to me is a really good number right now.
- [37:10]
Chad Millman
And this cowboy said, yeah, I got to consider that. Listen, Detroit is now a 5 1/2 point favorite at Hard Rock bet over the Chicago Bears. You mentioned this on Sunday night and then yesterday I texted you and we, I called you, I'm like, were you really leaning Detroit four and a half? And you're like, I can't Even remember what I said, because I was up for 36 straight hours until the Sunday show. But you did say, let's get the four and a half for Detroit now.
- [37:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Just in case the Bears look bad. Right. That was probably my rationale.
- [37:41]
Chad Millman
They did. Here's the problem. I'm a little skeptical about the Lions, like, digging into that game. I thought in the first half they had opportunities to sort of make this game close and not have it be so lopsided for the packers in terms of the score. But I'm worried about their offensive line, like Frank Ragnow, the center, retired. Kevin Zeitler, the guard, left in free agency. They had a couple rookies in there who just looked like rookies. And will they get everything fixed over the course of, you know, five days of practice? So this running game can be sort of the bulwark that it had been. That sets everything up for Jared Goff. I would. I would lean into the Lions because I think clearly their coaching staff is better than the Bears. But I don't love this game right now.
- [38:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I hope Bears fans hear this. Don't be so doom and gloom. I know that's the whole Chicago personality. It's just. We lost game one. The world's over. We're the worst team ever. Burn it all down. Caleb's a bus. We showed up. I get it. That's very Chicago. But I talked about this. You have to treat this. Caleb's rookie year last year was a total waste. You know, this. This offense. You watch that game, Chad. You saw it. It's. It's. When it works, it looks really on, and it's. You know, it's a great system. So if Caleb's not the guy, he will be gone. But at least you can see that you most likely have a coach who. He needs to go through his own growing pains as well. He's going to do stupid stuff, make stupid calls, and that's just the way it is. I mean, in that game, they had that pick six and their next five possessions. I could be wrong, but almost positive, because I watched that game. The next five possessions were either a punt or a missed field goal. So again, they're up 176 and they have all these punts. They have the missed field goal. And then in the fourth quarter, the Vikings came back. So, you know, at the end of the day, it's on Caleb, Chad. And that's my fear here, is I. We had Seth Wicker Sham on, and I pressed him about the mental makeup of this kid, because to me, in Life. You want adversity, you want someone that's failed a lot and dealt with, you know, challenges. And he just seemed like he was so talented. He just floated through his whole life. And you know, whether it was in high school, Oklahoma, usc, he was always great until his last year there. And we're seeing that Bears game like there was, he had, he had open guys he missed. And that's my, that's my fear with Caleb here, where, you know, that number seems so big to me with the Lions because it's still the lines, but that could have just been one bad game and they're legit, they'll be fine this year. Or like, we keep thinking that offensive line, that's a major issue. Their offense line is a big problem. And they didn't make adjustments like Green Bay out scheme them and made better adjustments even in that second half. I mean, they got a late touchdown with what, like two minutes left the lines. But like Chad's saying here, there's a lot to be doubtful of this Lions team, so if anything, I'll just not, not bet this one. But I think in the day, if it's under 6 like it is right now, that's, that's, that's good value towards this Lions team that, you know, if they do click, they could roll this bears team 40 to 17. Like, that would not be that shocking. Where couldn't. I mean, I, there's a couple of really bad losses. Week one that's up there for the worst loss of the week. You're at home prime time 176 vibes could not be higher and just total, total train wreck. And you know, like, Chad's doing a little bit of soul searching. JJ, you can see it, right? You see the top 10, the moxie.
- [41:35]
Chad Millman
A lot of moxie. Painful part about it, so much moxie. I, I, yesterday, about 5:00', clock, 5:30, my, my buddy Matt called me. Everyone who's been listening to the show for years knows Matt, and he says to me, I say hello. He doesn't even say hello. He just starts ranting about how much the Bears suck. And it's 5:30, the game is three hours away. I'm like, what? What are you talking about? He goes, I'm just getting it out of the way because I know this is how I'm going to feel and this is what I'm going to be saying. We were texting during the game. He couldn't have been more right. Like, like everything he said, it was.
- [42:22]
Simon Hunter
I don't know about you. I was like, all right, Chad was right about his Bears being a home divisional dog. That was right.
- [42:28]
Chad Millman
But I was right for about 75% of the game.
- [42:34]
Simon Hunter
I've never seen again, this is why the JJ mystique is at all time high. I've never seen a guy in his first game throw a pick six and in the fourth quarter score three touchdowns, throwing two, rushing for one, just again, Vikings baller. Yeah, you might come crashing and burning, but I would be very excited because I could not believe what I was witnessing where this guy.
- [42:56]
Chad Millman
There were a few things in this totally lost. There were a few things. He looked totally lost and out of his depth for three quarters. But then Kevin o', Connell, who we love, I think he's a top five coach easily in the NFL. What he has done year after year with Kirk Cousins, then Sam Darnold, now JJ McCarthy, he's got to win something for me.
- [43:16]
Simon Hunter
But I get where you're coming from.
- [43:17]
Chad Millman
His ability to turn nothing into something in the middle of a game. He's the reason they won that game. He found what would make J.J. mcCarthy comfortable, put him in positions to succeed and the guy was throwing lasers at the end of the game to guys who had to receivers who had been schemed open and so just really impressive. I actually on Twitter this morning and threads, I asked followers to give me a redraft of the 2024 QB class. The six quarterbacks.
- [43:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you went that route.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
I said Jaden Daniels, number one, almost universally. Bo Nix was number two. And I'm like, that's stupid. And then jj, it was like JJ and Penix were three and four and most of it was then Drake May five and Caleb Williams six.
- [44:12]
Simon Hunter
That's insane.
- [44:14]
Chad Millman
Isn't that great? If you have ideas on this, put in the YouTube chat. I'm going to respond when I jump in. Give me your redrafted top six from 2024. All right. Interesting game coming up. Jets at Buffalo. Buffalo, six and a half at Hard Rock. Bet right now. Big move on this one. This was at eight and a half. We both leaned jets. And this was before the Bills win against the Ravens. Then it moved down considerably at six and a half. I'd go with the Bills here. Am I sharp or am I square on that one?
- [44:46]
Simon Hunter
Definitely square. My view of it is just your read of the line might have moved too much.
- [44:53]
Chad Millman
Could be true.
- [44:54]
Simon Hunter
But at the same time, I think this is the proper amount of movement for how bad and banged up and injured that Bill's secondary defense is. Like you. You see how Important. Having a safety who can come downfield and tackle is like that is everything in football. If you, if you can't stop the run with your safety, you will give up huge, huge plays. And what I took from that jets team is they're going to scheme up big plays. Like Breeze hall is good. Like he's what, a year and a half removed now from that knee injury. And he looked like he had that step back which was missing. And that's why people are saying he was a guy that could be getting traded. You know, this whole preseason, everything like that. And like, you know, Justin Fields going back watching that game, he had three or four throws that could have been pick sixes, like insanely tight windows. But he made the throws and we've seen it. When Fields is on, he looks like a top five, top ten quarterback. It's incredible because he's so athletic, his delivery is so smooth and his deep ball looks amazing. So, you know, I want to be there on the Bills. I agree with Chad. Like it feels like I should be more tempted on this Bills team. But on the road against the jets, you know, I just could see the jets always keeping right behind him like keeping the score close. So another game I won't force because the numbers move too much. Where at seven and a half I would have been very more ironically been very confident in this Jet team. But we've seen it with Josh down against bad teams, usually he beats them up. Wouldn't be shocked if he's got, you know, a double digit lead. And Justin Fields just has his off day which is what he does. He's an up and down quarterback. So the matchup wise though, it's like Fields, he could rush for 100. Like we literally just saw how bad this team is against the read option. They just, you're trying to have Bosa on the edge. Stop a read option. Not, not the good boss either, the older brother. So it's, it's a tough spot for this Bills team. And yeah, I, I, I think your, your read on the value might be on the number moving too much is correct. I'm just, you know, I think this probably should be closer to five. It's still six and a half. I am tempted on the Spills team but it's like man, I just, I can't get over how bad their defense is where it's like even, it's just too much, it's too big of a number for, to me for that defense where that could be major wrong because Josh Allen is just that Good. Where if he's just tearing up this jets defense that just got torn up by Rogers, obviously that favors Josh Allen in this spot.
- [47:33]
Chad Millman
I don't think Justin Fields is Lamar Jackson and so running wise, he's pretty close.
- [47:40]
Simon Hunter
I'm going to say that right now.
- [47:41]
Chad Millman
Right. But he's not the passer that he is. And so I do think that Lamar Jackson's threat as a passer changes how you play defensively. And the Bills will scheme to really just make sure Justin Fields can't be beating them as a runner and only has the option to pass.
- [47:59]
Simon Hunter
What do you think Pittsburgh did? Pittsburgh sold out to stop him as a runner and he burned him with his legs and the running back. Burn him again. Pittsburgh is the. Was the number one highest paid defense. They got the guys and they had a banged up secondary. You just saw what Fields did to a banged up secondary. That's. That's what I'm saying. There's just so many similarities here. I get your hesitation with Fields, but man, this Bill's defense has so many injuries. It's brutal.
- [48:28]
Chad Millman
I was thinking about adopting new teams in the AFC just so have something to root for. I settled on the Ravens over the Bills because the Bills I felt like would just break my heart in the same way as the Bears would. I think the Ravens are going to break my hearts in different ways, so I might just adopt the Ravens in the AFC here. The value that we could have had eight and a half is just not going to be there. And it's setting up to be a game where there's so much emotion for the jets right now. Classic fade the jets, fade the hype.
- [49:05]
Simon Hunter
But the books. This is going to be the books. One of the book's biggest needs. Because you can tease the Bills now to a pick like that's why that line movement to me was such a huge deal. The fact that they've crossed into this six and a half number is it's just going to be heavy, heavy, heavy Bills money. And they knew what they were doing. So that's really respected money that came on the jets and moved this number. But like you said, Chad, your read could be right that it could have moved too much at this point. But this is definitely a game we're going to be talking about again on Thursday. I have no, no doubt this would be a big wise guy call.
- [49:39]
Chad Millman
All right, look, we still owe people a Chad loves love. We still owe people, as Simon says, like last week with the Browns. I wonder if we're going to have a Little debate over the over who's going to get to claim ownership on this next game. Seattle at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a three point favorite at Hard Rock Bat and really across the board. You really like Seattle in week one and then I had some critiques about Seattle which you scoffed at on Sunday night. And then I actually did a lot of rewatching of this game and this line has actually moved up from two and a half to three since Sunday. There are lots of reasons to fade Mike Tomlin as a favorite and we did it against the jets this past weekend. He's not profitable as a favorite at home either as he is not on the road. Here's what's tickling me about this game. Seattle's defense was really excellent against the Niners opening TD drive. They basically kept the Niners scoreless the rest of the game until the final drive. The pressure on Purdy was relentless. They limited them to just over three, three yards per carry. They were opportunistic. You unpack that Steelers game and Aaron Rodgers, like one of his TD passes was a shovel pass. Another was on a short field. He was sacked four times. His QBR was middle of the pack and he didn't even attempt to throw more than 20 yards downfield. The defense for the Steelers, they could not stop the rush more than 180 yards rushing. A lot of that was Breeze Hall. Some of that was Justin Fields. I'm kind of surprised it moved in the Steelers direction. I liked Seattle more than I thought it would. Chad loves, love. He loves the Seattle Seahawks. Plus three. What?
- [51:43]
Simon Hunter
That's the shocker of the day. This is your favorite bet bet.
- [51:46]
Chad Millman
Now I can't really find one that I love. Love, love.
- [51:50]
Simon Hunter
Bring back bullying America. Yeah, that's. I'm shocked. I, I like this number two. I have no fear that it's up to three. If anything, I'm hoping more public money comes up and the books have to shift it again to three and a half because right now like I'm looking, it's the splits right now it's all Pittsburgh money. Like heavy, heavy Pittsburgh money right now. So that's what I said I, I hope I said on Sunday night this is the exact spot you want to be in. You just want to be patient, let the masses come embedded up and yeah, this, the Seahawks team don't know if they'll win it because that like the San Darno part of it. But I think you see what I say about them keeping these type of games close. It's like these teams that they're pretty much even with which is what they were the 49ers, they will keep games close in ugly games and their defense can really pull teams down into the mud. And like that's what I really like about that coach and the way he coached up this defense of just never bend and break. Like they're just so, you know, like there's multiple times in that 49ers game where I could see that they were just worn down. Right. Because it was just never any relentless of Robinson and McCaffrey that combo for the 49ers run game. And they just never broke like even at the end with that pretty touchdown. You know, like we said it was a 50, 50 ball. Like it could have gone either way. So in this matchup like we talked about, just like the Seahawks and my hesitation will just be diving more into the whole splits of west coast team coming east playing in this exact spot after such a brutal tough divisional game. What that means for them. And on the flip side, Pittsburgh, I want to see their injury report because if they are missing all these guys again from their secondary, this is the exact type of matchup we want for the Seahawks. And that Kubiak run blocking scheme where they make one or two guys miss if the linebacker, the D lineman missed their assignment. There's going to be gaping holes like we saw for that jets team against the Spittsburgh team. So another game, Chad, where I like we're on the same page. A plus three. It's a great number. We're praying this gets a three and a half for the contest. That would be great value on the Seahawks line.
- [53:59]
Chad Millman
When you say bring back bullying, are you mad that I stole it from you?
- [54:04]
Simon Hunter
No, you just. I feel like you were sensitive to me. Like you were acting like I was being me through. I was just trying to get you on the same page of like don't, don't take Pittsburgh here back. The Seahawks team, they're not as bad as that. You know, game looked offensively like I, I agreed with you that Darnold did struggle in some aspects. But that running game, you know, there, there's a lot to like I think going forward for what that Seahawks is trying to set up with their running style.
- [54:28]
Chad Millman
I'm nothing if not open minded.
- [54:31]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [54:32]
Chad Millman
You know, I'm willing to see all the angles. I did my research yesterday. I dug in. I watched some of the game. I was, I was not, I was just not impressed with the Steelers at all against the Jets. It's partially coloring. Why. Why I'm not Why I'm less impressed with their win than I think other people with their. With their loss than other people are, which is coloring then my feeling about the Bills. But I just thought Seattle, like they dominated that game. And you said at the beginning of the show, Brock Purdy won that game with a 50, 50 ball. And then there was a fluky, you know, offensive lineman who runs into Sam Darnold's hand and he fumbles when they could potentially win the game. So.
- [55:19]
Simon Hunter
And this line would be two if they won. This line would be two, one and a half. So like we say all the time, you take the value and especially the fact that this is, you know, besides the Cowboys, there's a couple other games, but this is up there for the biggest public side right now in Pittsburgh.
- [55:34]
Chad Millman
Yep. Denver, Indy, Indy, plus two. Lines have been moving from three to two and a half to two. Not a Pro Joe split. Exactly. But definitely see the money starting to come in and tilt towards Indianapolis. Are you still seeing value on this? On Sunday night you were liking the Colts. Where do you stand now?
- [56:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, another spot. Like, I loved it, couldn't believe it opened at 3. Took the value Sunday, bet it again yesterday. Now, like you just said, it's down to two. I'd still take that. Like I talk all the time about key number two is it's going to get the one and a half. I'm assuming like this, this will be pros versus Joes. I think the public will come in on this Denver team eventually.
- [56:24]
Chad Millman
But, Simon, if the Twitter poll is any indication, people are still full believers in Bo Nix.
- [56:33]
Simon Hunter
Right. So I just think they'll throw out last week's game and, you know, they'll come in here and just think that it's all good. And I just think, you know, a whole off season, you saw Tennessee, what they did to Bo Nix to give them problems. That's what it's like, right? You get a full year playing, teams have a whole off season to adjust to it, and they're going to give them problems. So looking at this matchup, like I said, Colts eventually will jump off this train. I just, I'm playing the number here. So, like at plus two at Hard Rock, that's. That's great value, in my opinion. I go grab that right now because, you know, I've talked to a couple other guys who are in the same mindset of me, and they have money like I do. They'll be betting this cold side. They're going to keep moving this number down. So I think we Jump back on here. Unfortunately for our contest talking Thursday, I don't think we're going to get it to two and a half. I think it's going to go down one and a half, get closer to a pick and that's going to be a tough choice because that at that point we're, we're chasing a bad number. But yeah, two, if you're hearing this right now, go grab it. That's good value on this Colts team, but it's not. Simon says no, that's a free one. It's just a gift.
- [57:40]
Chad Millman
Just a gift. It's just a gift. Carolina at Arizona. Arizona is a six and a half point favorite at home. Listen, we know the sharp side here is to go bet Carolina and good for us that we didn't bet Carolina last week. We did not ask anyone to bet Carolina last week. We actually bet against Carolina last week. I know we try to time these spots a bounce back. The only offensive bright spot for Carolina with Chuba Hubbard. The receiver depth is so limited. The defense is terrible and has some injuries. Simon, say your piece.
- [58:31]
Simon Hunter
I thought McMillan played well too though. Their first.
- [58:33]
Chad Millman
He did.
- [58:34]
Simon Hunter
First round pick.
- [58:35]
Chad Millman
He played well like six or seven catches and he did, he did a nice job getting himself open and like when they did have drives and so sort of sustain any momentum, it was because Bryce Young was finding him. I'm surprised you're not saying this, as Simon says right now.
- [58:51]
Simon Hunter
No, because I'm, I'm like you where.
- [58:54]
Chad Millman
I'm not sold yet.
- [58:55]
Simon Hunter
I'm trying to be smart about this Panthers team and I did go back and watch their game. And as bad as the Cardinals played in some aspects against that Saints team, they still might be able to run for 200 yards against this Panthers team. Like they're, they're stuff they do offensively that really favors them in this matchup. And you know, Cardinals might have got a steal draft, they have a corner who's. I might be able to shut down corner and we Chad just nailed it like they don't have if you're taking away now their number one pick and there is no feeling safety route guy. And that was pretty apparent for Bryce Young in that game. He didn't have a number two he could trust, especially on third down. So yeah, I'm not going to force it. I might get there on Thursday. We sit here right now. I haven't put a penny on this Panthers number and my whole mentality is I just hope there's so much doubt out there like me that no one Touches. And we do get a seven because once there's a seven, I have to take the Panthers once it gets a seven. But six and a half, I can be patient. I can let this number sit. But it's another one we have to look long and hard at for survivor chat because this is another good spot for the Cardinals. But man, this Panthers team, it's so brutal because I want to believe in them, but they just have so many gaping issues. And when you just look at the numbers from that Week 1 matchup, we'll see if that was just a Jags thing. But they're. It's incredible how bad their run defense is. And if you can't stop the run, you have one of the worst secondaries in football as well. Defensively, it's. It's just. There's just nothing else left for them to do defensively to get stops.
- [60:36]
Chad Millman
You know what? I'm still really proud of us that we're not sort of just blindly going with the Panthers at six and a half because we think there's something there. Because right now I'm not sure we think there's anything there. Rams at. Rams at Tennessee. Tennessee plus six. I know we want to take Tennessee. The pros has moved on Tennessee. It's at one point moved from six to five and a half and got bet back up. I don't really know what we learned about the Rams. And we can say the same thing about the Texans when we talk about the Texans and. And the Bucks in a few minutes. I like Cam Ward was pretty terrible. Not the reason they lost the game, but dare you. You know, he wasn't anything that we're like, yep, number one pick going to be in the hall of Fame. Not like he has to be in the first game. I got no lean here.
- [61:27]
Simon Hunter
I got to send you a clip. He. He was good. I think Cam Ward was good in this game. It's just the team around him, the coaching, all of it. That's. That's the issue with Tennessee. And this was almost, almost Simon says. But I'm trying to be patient. But there is like to me when I touch six, it's like, oh, my God. The value here is incredible. It's Stafford outdoors, that team outdoors on grass against a Tennessee team that I think people are like Chad. They didn't really think came word look good where I. I couldn't believe how good he looked against that Broncos defense. Like there was two different times where he got first downs using his legs and they called it back for holding. I Do think the offensive line will get better at that? They'll either be call signs from the sideline. Like there's, there's stuff they can do where they can yell out to know to let go. Right. The know to let go when the defense defender is pulling away because Cam Ward is moving upfield. But you know his weird arm angle, you saw it give Calvin Ridley some problems. Right. He had some major drops in that game again, stuff that I think is going to prove as go along. So to me, I just love this Tennessee team. Maybe I'll make it try to get you on the same side and make it our ballsy bet again. I just, I can't get over the spot, the line value and the fact that like you just said it thinks. I think the pros are joining the public on this ramp side.
- [62:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [62:47]
Simon Hunter
And this number is going to keep going up. So in case it doesn't grab the six now. But love this spot for a team that, you know, the Rams, they, they're skating, right. They won their game, so they're not getting much hate. But they didn't look that good against Houston like that. That was really on CJ right? CJ Settling for field goals and not getting touchdowns was the difference of that game in that first half. I think it was nine, seven and a half.
- [63:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [63:15]
Simon Hunter
And then they didn't get at a point, maybe the rest of the game that Houston team. So Rams defense could be very legit. Right. Another really tough assignment for this, this offense in Tennessee. But honestly I look at the match and I'm just like there's, there's ways for Tennessee to win this matchup and attack this Rams team. And you know, Rams coming off that big physical game now on the road now outdoors. Let the public keep. Button it up. Give, give me, give me higher than six. I'll take the six now, but at six and a half, Chad, I might, might have to force this one and just be like we, we might lose it because we know the deal. Right. It's a rookie here playing against Stafford, but too much respect for a ramps team that I think they got a little lucky in their week one match. But I think their defense has been a little overrated now because of it.
- [64:00]
Chad Millman
Philadelphia at Kansas City got a little lion flip here. It opened at Chiefs one and a half on Sunday night. It is Now Kansas City +1. You liked the Eagles in this game. When we talked on Sunday night, it has flipped. We don't love making that play. When a team has gone from 1 point underdog to 1 point favorite. We did it with the Ravens. We bet them on Sunday night. Personally, when it had gone from plus one to minus one. A little bit of a kick in the dick, but I think we just think the Eagles have a better roster here. And as you said the other night, I don't think they're practicing these past few days as if they won a game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a rebuilt offensive line that was not very good and now they're going to play against an even angrier Jalen Carter. Like, the Eagles were freakishly balanced in that game against the Cowboys in a way that really highlighted how in control of the offense Jalen Hurts is and how they know their power. Their biggest issue was the lack of discipline, which I believe they will fix because they know how much they can't get away with that against a team like the Chiefs. Yeah.
- [65:21]
Simon Hunter
And the Eagles, I think it was some freakish thing. They had like the most penalty yards in football in that first half against Dallas. Like just everything felt like it was going wrong with that weather delay. And you know, Carter plays that game. No weather delay. You can see how there's ways that they just roll that Cowboys team. Right. Because obviously he. He's the difference in that middle between the run all.
- [65:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah.
- [65:46]
Simon Hunter
Such a huge deal. You know, I look at this game and I am just. I don't know about you, but it's like this. This is usually me and Chad Auto play the Chiefs like they're going to be an underdog at home. I cannot see the public coming on this Chiefs team. Honestly. I mean, maybe in their teasers, right. If this gets up to one and a half, they'll throw them in up to seven and a half. But bed notes straight. I'm assuming it's going to just be all public money on this Eagles team as long as it's under three. And I told Chad I, I agree with it on Sunday night and I model it. I don't know if my model understands how big of a deal the worthy out is, but it's at a pick. So technically, you know, right now it's plus one at Hard Rock. My model thinks there's value on this Chiefs team. I just disagree. I just, I really dive into. They look so slow defensively in many ways and maybe that was because of the travel, but you know, I just. Their defense and spags, they didn't, they didn't make adjustments. That really wowed me. And there was feel like there was no move to make where this Eagles team can beat you in so many different ways. And they don't like, you know, we, we might not have Dickerson, they might have, you know, a substitute in there at the guard position, which is a big deal and that could be a huge game breaker for Chris Jones. But it's like offensively, I just don't know how the Chiefs keep up with them. Now if you're out your number one, number two receiver and your running back, Pacheco is not the same guy. And you got a left, you know, tackle that's a rookie. It's like these things add up about this Chief's team not being the team of the past that's getting so much respect. So it's hard. Chad. I, I really hate it because it feels so chalky and we're walking right into it. We're walking right into what we know. It just feels like a trap. But this is a game I'm going to wait on, talk to people the books. I'm literally going to be in the books all day today and just talking to people and see what the public is. But I'm assuming I'm in the Philadelphia area. Everybody's just going to be so about this Eagles team. It's going to push me to love in this Chiefs team. I know it, but I'm trying to, trying to keep it, keep it 100 with everyone and no just know that it's, it's a game. I, I was confident with it. I guess Sunday night I'm wavering a little bit just because everything about it, the alarms are going off where it's like this is a cheap spot. But I just, I can't get over the fact is it, is it a Chief spot? This is not the same Chiefs team of old that me and you blindly back. Like this is real hesitation. I just breaking it down. I don't know how they move the ball in this Eagles defense. This is again as good as the Chargers team is. They're not as good as this Eagles defense across the board. So yeah, revenge spot, super bowl, everything, I get it. But you know, me and Chad talked about that travel, all of it. That's just, it's so negative for this Chiefs team. And I know it's hard to think but then being owned too, that's a real thing right now. I think that's something that's actually going to happen.
- [68:35]
Chad Millman
Look, every year it catches up, right? And the key to winning at betting sometimes is catching the wave before crests. And we're trying to do that with the Chiefs right now. And this Might be the spot. Atlanta, Minnesota, this is the Sunday Night Football game. You still owe us a Simon says. Second prime time game in a row for JJ McCarthy. Second time being a primetime favorite in as many starts. I think I'm going to call him J.J. moxie. I'm going to coin that right now. Trademark it. If you, if you'd like to buy it from me, that's totally cool. I can sell it like it's the late 90s. Like I'm selling, you know, Internet names. Early money was on Atlanta, but then it all flipped after the game last night. The line got up to five and a half for a minute now it's been bought, bought back. Atlanta Sharper Square.
- [69:44]
Simon Hunter
Can't believe it. But Simon says, give me the Vikings minus four and a half.
- [69:48]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [69:49]
Simon Hunter
I know. And it's shocking that I would love such a public favor favorite on a Sunday night game. But I'm just grabbing this now in case it does go up to six. I just going back and watching that Atlanta team against the Bucks. Atlanta is going to have major issues like they're, they're a line banged up as it is. That's gonna be a problem now when you're going against, you know, to me, a great defense in the Vikings. That's why like Caleb took a lot of shit. He dodged a lot of sacks. Like he had guys coming on him one on one and he was able to get out of the. Pennix doesn't move like that. Like Penix is not that type of guy in the pocket where if you get him off his spot, he struggles. And you know, when I look at this matchup, I wasn't rushing to Bednik because I wanted to see what J.J. could do, but they match up perfectly against this Atlanta team. They're going to be able to run the ball for days like that. That's going to be very apparent to people early on this matchup. And you know, it's, it's really about the number here. So to me, I have it at six. It's four and a half. I'll take the value on this one. And yeah, it's, I'm trying to switch it up because I was literally going to go Tennessee, but I'm like, okay, last week I made people take the Browns. Let me give them a favorite here that think there's good value here. And I do think the public, they'll back Atlanta. I honestly believe that. So to me, four and a half, it could go down. But I see the professionals like me getting into their model. This Vikings team and being like, wow, this team is legit. Like this is a really good team. And defensively I think they're going to give the major problems to Penix in this Falcons offense that, you know, other than Robinson busting off an insane catch for 80 yards and making everyone miss, I just did not look the way they look. They just didn't look consistent against the Bucks. And you know Penix, that was his fourth start. This is a very young quarterback now facing a Flores defense on the road on Sunday night. So don't be shocked why this number is so big. I'm telling you it should be closer to six. It's just the public right now like I'm looking at the splits. It's actually pretty heavy towards this Atlanta team. So like Chad said, maybe people wake up today there'll be more towards this Vikings team after that big comeback win. Maybe more money will come in this Vikings team but early money right now looks like it's all Falcons just because people just don't believe in this Vikings team that they should be this big of a favorite where I'm telling you it's, it's a really bad spot for this Falcons team to be in.
- [72:16]
Chad Millman
Millman likes Seattle on the road as a dog for Chad Loves love and Simon says is Minnesota as a favorite in a prime time game. There are two Monday night games this week. Tampa Bay at Houston is the first one. Houston - 2 1/2 at Hard Rock. I just thought all the games that these two teams played were both really strange. The Rams, Texans was freakishly even down to the same exact number of plays for each team. Total first downs. Even the QBs missed this had the same number of incompletions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Atlanta could have ended regulation at 23 if not for a missed field goal. So the line moved from one and a half to two and a half in the first 24 hours in favor of the of the Texans. Why are people. My first thought is that the professional betters are just more impressed with sort of how the Texans played the Rams than how the Bucks barely beat the Falcons.
- [73:20]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked with this too and I've had like a couple of pros I talked to that was their first bet they made was Houston and I'm right with you. I went back and watched the game because I know how much I love Tennessee where it's like all right, I need to really watch this Rams game and see this type of defense they're running here. And you know Houston, we knew the deal. They're going to have this incredible defense. Can they block for cj? Can they have a running game? Again, Nick Chubb is not the answer. Right. You saw how big of a deal it is that they just don't have a running back in that game. And, you know, the Rams knew they were gonna have to beat him with their arm, and TJ Just couldn't do it. Right. Like, I think Christian Kirk missed the game. He's starting this kid Higgins, who's this rookie they drafted this year. And the plan of just doubling COLLINS and making C.J. use these other guys, it worked. It totally worked in that game. So I think that's what the Bucks will do here. We're getting plus three now. Are we suckers? Are we squares here? Because that's. It feels like we're being suckers here because it's like. And same type of game. You look at the splits here. All the tickets are on the Bucks, but the money is heavy on this side of Houston.
- [74:35]
Chad Millman
Like, it doesn't make any sense to me.
- [74:39]
Simon Hunter
I just think they look at this where it's Houston, a primetime game at home in a spot of they can't lose. Like, they can't lose. They're going to be so much more desperate and hungry in this exact spot in front of their fans where this historically feels like the type of games Baker and Tampa, they do lose. Right. Emotional road win against a divisional foe in Atlanta. Now you're on the road again in a spot where, you know they're going to. They're always going to be desperate. We've seen that playing stuff from Baker. He's just so scrappy. He can play dead for three quarters and just kill you in the fourth quarter. But, yeah, it's. I think we're on the same page, like, matchup wise. I can't believe this number's up to three now. It's like, I. I have this at two. It's three. Obviously, I think there's value on the Bucks. I'm just waiting to be patient because I know I'm going to talk to more pros about this. I just can't believe they think so highly of this Houston's defense that way that they just totally think they're going to shut down this Bucks offense. And even if, you know, C.J. can't make score more than one or two touchdowns, that's gonna be enough to win this game. Because that's. That's honestly what they're saying back on their side.
- [75:42]
Chad Millman
All right, last game, Monday Night Football. We'll definitely Discuss that one again on Thursday. We'll get some calls about it, I'm sure. Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders. It had been at three and a half Sunday night. I leaned toward Vegas because of the hook. Because it's the hook that brings you back. Shout out Blues Traveler. Now the line is three at Hard Rock. So someone's taking the hook. Bruce Bowen, Bruce Bowers, I mean, Brock Bowers. I'm mixing up San Antonio spurs ex players and Las Vegas Raiders tight ends. Brock Bowers said yesterday he was fine. I was just grabbing the hook. That feels like the sharp side to me. Not a strong opinion of this game is a three. Agree.
- [76:32]
Simon Hunter
Don't force it, people. There's three and a half's out there. Go grab it like Hard Rock. Even in Jersey, the three and a half is gone. So doesn't matter what state you're in, Hard Rock, that that three is going to be where they're at. So we're in the same page. Like, I like the Raiders, but going back and watching that Chargers game, I don't know if it is the Madison Beer effect, but the confidence and swagger that Herbert had, My God. My God. Like, that was everything we've been waiting to see, right? Like, because they put the stat up. The reason I'm a Herbert hater is because he had 11 straight games where he lost when the total points were under three. So if he's down by three, he had lost 11 straight games in that exact scenario. So to me, him stepping up big in that fourth quarter, just totally alternating my brain with him right now, where it's like, even at this number at three, I'm like, man, that's a Chargers line here. Like, to me, they're, they're pretty good. Like, they're looking like if they can put it together like they did against that Chiefs team, they're going to be a team that you know, potentially will win this division because it's. At the end of the day, it's all in Herbert. People can make excuses, be like, he didn't have weapons. Oh, my God, the defense, the coaching, I agree with all of it. But you see the talent level of Herbert, there's a reason these people who, even though he's never done anything his entire career, make him a top five quarterback. Like, the raw talent, the athleticism, it is all there. So if he's clicking, we got no prayer. We have no prayer for this Vegas team. If he is clicking like he was against that Chiefs team. Because, you know, I get our, our love for this Raiders team they beat Drake may like that's that like their secondary, that's their biggest weakness. It wasn't truly tested right. Stefan Diggs didn't press them like Glad McConkey. He's from a different planet compared to Stefan Diggs at this, at this point in his career. So I'm, I'm glad we're not forcing this one in, you know, three and a half that, that, that was staring at me. I think the same thing as you on Sunday night where it's like that is really good value on this Raiders team and it was all about Bowers. If Bowers is good to go, that makes it even better of a number. But at three, two and a half, I, I am leaning towards this Chargers time. I literally have this number at three. So at three I won't force it. But I do like Chargers at three minus two and a half. But at three and a half, if I got to make a play on it, to me that's the value. That's that Raiders number.
- [79:06]
Chad Millman
All right. I don't think I skipped any games. I got them all. We got a list to review. Really fascinating list. Some numbers that we're just waiting to see how they move before we can make a decision about are we going further into the conversation with betting? How do they shape up for our contest? Chad loves Love is Seattle plus three. Simon says is Minnesota minus four and a half. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We are presented by Hard Rock Bat. We'll be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on. Plus our survivor picks our head to head battle, our boss brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get your pods. Subscribe rate. Review feedback is always a gift. Don't forget we are collecting all the reviews in these early weeks and we will start reading some of them on the show. The winner of the contest that we find to be be the funniest, the one that makes us laugh. The one that most represents how you connect with the show. It's completely subjective. You're going to get some premium swag. Until next time. Love you.