Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 Reaction to Eagles-Chiefs, Giants-Cowboys & more + early leans for NFL Week 3

Aired: September 15, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode of Sharp or Square dives deep into NFL Week 2, analyzing key matchups, breaking down results, and reflecting on their betting outcomes. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter provide frank insights into their contest picks, address tough beats and surprising outcomes, and offer sharp early leans for NFL Week 3—always with a mix of humor, brutal honesty, and actionable betting wisdom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Contest Recap: A Roller Coaster Sunday

• Record: 2 wins, 3 losses; but the mood is upbeat considering how poorly things started.
• Quote: “I feel like it’s the greatest 2 and 3 we’ve ever had… last year this would have been 0-5.” — Chad Millman (02:47)

Game-by-Game Overview

• Giants at Cowboys (Cowboys -5.5)

  • Wild, penalty-ridden game featuring 1,000 yards of offense and a shocking performance from Russell Wilson.
  • Cowboys’ defense is porous; Dak’s 14th victory in a row vs the Giants.
  • Betting take: Survived in Survivor pools by the slimmest margins.
  • Quote: “We literally used all of our luck up for Survivor here in week two… Unreal. You knew too he was only going to throw deep and the safety was still biting on stuff.” — Simon Hunter (04:54)
  • Memorable Moment: 25 penalties for 266 yards.

• Buffalo at New York (Jets +6.5)

  • Result: Loss. Complete chalk. Jets’ offense was incompetent; Justin Fields struggled before being replaced.
  • “All in all, the entire professional market was on the wrong side here.” — Chad Millman (11:45)
  • Insight: When favorites close at -6.5 or higher, they cleaned up today; betting underdogs was a losing strategy.

• LA at Tennessee (Titans +5.5)

  • Early hope with Cam Ward, then a string of turnovers (crucial fourth-quarter fumble) killed their chances.
  • Lessons: “Been bad teams here… it was brutal because that was the one game I felt really good about.” — Simon Hunter (16:05)

• Colts +2.5 vs Broncos (Default Pick)

  • Colts dominated statistically but failed in the red zone (2-for-7) and almost lost because of it.
  • “If we had lost this game, this one actually would’ve hurt more than any of the other games…” — Chad Millman (18:05)
  • Outcome decided by missed field goals and a crucial penalty/re-kick for the win.

• Eagles -1.5 at Chiefs

  • Simon’s “pound the table” play: stuck with the Eagles even against sharp money on KC.
  • Eagles calm, conservative; capitalized on Travis Kelce’s deflection/interception.
  • “Almost by double digits. Yeah, could’ve won by 10. God bless Mahomes and live betting.” — Simon Hunter (25:16)
  • Game-Changing Moment: Red zone interception off Kelce’s hands flips the game.

2. Contest Strategy, Survivor, and Betting Reflections

• Survivor Pool Tactics:

  • Got Cowboys and Broncos “out of the way” early—happy to be done with them due to their volatility.
  • “So glad we’re done with Survivor. I actually had Cowboys and Cardinals in Survivor this week—I just wanted them out of the way.” — Chad Millman (10:35)

• Bad Beats and Emotional Resilience:

  • Acknowledged tough beats, lucky escapes (“The gods were smiling on us because we deserved it,” Chad says at 21:48).
  • Importance of not panicking mid-game; every NFL Sunday brings chaos.

3. Week 2 Lessons & Betting Narratives

• Favorites vs. Dogs: Dominant showing for favorites at -6.5 and above prompted a reflection—should bettors be less stubborn about betting chalk early in the season?
• Red Zone Efficiency: Noted as a hidden stat that dramatically affected outcomes (Colts and Titans cited for struggles, contrasting with Denver).
• Quarterback Play: Heavy emphasis on inconsistent QB performances playing spoiler to bets—Justin Fields’ struggles especially noted.

4. Early Leans and Market Moves: Week 3

• New England -1 vs Pittsburgh: Early money coming in on New England; both hosts showing interest, but see potential value on the other side if the line moves.
• Jets +7: Chad leaned towards Jets early, but Simon advocates wait-and-see.
• Chiefs: Both anticipate odds movement; agree Chiefs will bounce back, especially given recent ATS stumbles for KC and overreaction to opponent performances.
• Rams vs Eagles: “If you want to grab it now, take Rams +4.5 or +4, early money is on LA.” — Simon Hunter (42:07)
• Colts -3 vs Tennessee: Simon jumps on this, citing Colts’ strong form.
• Atlanta -3.5 vs Panthers: Panthers’ garbage time heroics viewed as a mirage. “Everything I’ve seen from the Panthers, they just cannot stop the run… another early line to grab there.” — Simon Hunter (44:19)
• Green Bay at Cleveland +8.5: Both suggest the number is too high, lean Browns.

5. Reflection on Games They Didn’t Play

• Saints, Browns, Ravens: Discussed why they wisely avoided these.
• Seattle: Regret not playing but realistic about it not affecting overall week’s results.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Football Chaos:
  “It’s the best. Again, again, is there another sport like it?... There was only three games this afternoon and they all ended up being one possession games, all three of them. So it’s just the best product. The NFL doesn’t get anybody.”
  — Chad Millman (28:49)

• On Sharp Money and Traps:
  “That line was fishy and it felt like the pros stepped right into it, that it was a little bit of a trap. Same what we did with the Jets.”
  — Simon Hunter (26:50)

• On Quarterback Play and Bad Beats:
  “Justin Fields was, he was behind every throw, leaving yards on the field, leaving opportunities on the field…”
  — Chad Millman (11:01)

• On Early Lines:
  “Colts are minus three right now at the Hard Rock against Tennessee on the red. If that goes down, okay, great. We’ll flip because we want to be on Tennessee anyway.”
  — Simon Hunter (43:14)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:47] Week 2 betting performance reflection
• [04:54 – 10:35] Giants-Cowboys wildness, survivor pool drama, penalty chaos
• [11:01 – 13:46] Bills-Jets analysis, market takes, chalk dominance
• [14:42 – 16:05] Rams-Titans recap, Colt Ward’s flashes and fumble dooms Titans
• [18:05 – 21:48] Colts-Broncos, field goals, tough betting luck, why they stuck with their process
• [25:06 – 27:18] Eagles-Chiefs, Simon’s conviction, key in-game moments, Mahomes/Kelce play
• [34:00 – 36:30] Games left out, Seahawks regrets, strategic contest selection
• [37:27 – 39:12] Early Week 3 leanings (Pats/Steelers, Chiefs, Jets)
• [41:07 – 45:59] Chiefs vs. Giants line movement, Rams vs. Eagles market
• [47:17 – 48:29] Houston vs. Bucs/Jags lookahead, survivor insight

Final Review of Week 2 Picks

• Recap:
  • Lost: Cowboys -5.5
  • Lost: Titans +5.5
  • Lost: Jets +6.5
  • Won: Colts +2.5
  • Won: Eagles -1.5

Concluding Thoughts

Chad and Simon delivered animated, honest recaps of their wins and losses, underlining the realities of betting—variance, emotional swings, and the value of process over panic. Their early reads for Week 3 reflected sharp eyes for market movement, matchup edges, and discipline. The hosts engaged directly with audience questions, provided actionable advice, and maintained their witty, relatable style.

For listeners and bettors alike, the episode was packed with practical takeaways, good-natured self-deprecation, and sharp market commentary—and, of course, plenty of football chaos.