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Simon Hunter
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Chad Melman
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Chad Melman
All right. We are live with Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper. Makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter. And hello Simon.
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing?
Chad Melman
Wow, what a wild, insane, crazy roller coaster. Amazing fun Heart attack day in the NFL. A rare week for us in which all of our picks were Sunday games we went 2 and 3 on the day and I feel like it's the greatest two and three we've ever had and I feel like last year this would have been 05. Do you know what I mean? Rough start to the early day. 03 Titans plus five and a half. Jets six and a half. Cowboys five and a half. Rallied in the afternoon with the Colts and the Eagle Eagles. By the way, favorites today, 10 and three outright. Our new feature of Moneyline Favorites. Because the NFL is all about favorites, winning is actually cashed. Moneyline Round robin Favorites. We will review the entire day. We will get to the end of the show. We will do our early liens for next week. Already a couple games that are, that are flashing red that we're going to be taking a look at. Dude. Simon, let's get into it. First game up, Giants at Cowboys. We had Cowboys minus five and a half. I mean the first half I felt like we were in it only because the Giants basically had more penalties than anything else. And in the end it was just a back and forth game with two bad defenses, bad defensive backfields, not great coaching. A game with nearly 1,000 yards of offense, 500 yards passing from Russell Wilson, his career high. How often do you think the Cowboys would have liked Micah Parsons today instead of Trayvon Diggs who they gave a record setting contract to a couple years ago because right after the game Jerry Jones announced their signing to Davion Clowney. Because that's going to fix anything. Simon Bonkers.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And our guy Dak saved, saved our lives getting putting up 40 points and the kicker. Cowboys. You know we joked but it feels like we literally used all of our luck up for survivor here in week two. I mean that was. We really did an insane game that we won 10 different times and lost 10 different times and that's the best. It's the. This is why we love football. It's any given Sunday. Never would have believed Russell Wilson was gonna throw for 450 yards. I know how banged up obviously, you know with Bland out in the secondary. But Cowboys, oh my God. Like, like unreal. You knew too he was only going to throw deep and the safety was still biting on stuff and like letting neighbors get behind him at the end there to get that, that touchdown. But you're just like me. I'm sick in the head where I wanted them to score chat because in my mind I go all right, they kicked a three.
Chad Melman
Yep.
Simon Hunter
We get the ball. No. 2.
Chad Melman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Because I'm still thinking about our contest even though I care about Survivor. Survivor is number one, you know, contest right now. We need to steal, like, random wins. We can get it. So that was one of those where, like, I was. You're probably the same boat at halftime. I just. Because we talked about this was a. A game. The bookmakers are basically saying, go ahead. But as much as you want, the Cowboys, they're not covering over this four and a half and they were dead on with their number. And yeah, the, you know, Cowboys, horrible team, bad team. We're done with them. Like, I can't believe we have them. We survived the Cowboys.
Chad Melman
I know.
Simon Hunter
And, you know, I heard, I heard from you people, but this is like the classic case of, like, don't freak out before the game's over. You never know. It's football. It's chaos. You never know. But I get it because there was a minute there for a while, I was just like, there's no way the Cowboys are gonna win this game. It's just all going wrong. And Dak, Yeah, Dak just, you know, showed up in this game in a major way. Never, never gave up, even when it was going wrong for them. And yeah, again, sucks. Obviously, we want to have a winning week in the contest, but this is the one of the games that felt like it was dead from the get go. Like, there's other game. The jets, obviously, those two games felt like both. Right away, I felt like we were dead on those.
Chad Melman
So I disagree on the. On the Cowboys, I kept thinking like, the Giants are shooting themselves in their.
Simon Hunter
In the foot, the pen. Yeah.
Chad Melman
And. And we're going to get a chance there. There was a series where the Cowboys were in the red zone in the first half. The Giants had four penalties on two plays. They had a personal foul. They had a pass interference. They had something else on one play which all got offset because CD Lamb was so immature. He started taunting after the pass interference, so it all got offset. And then on the next play, they had like an offsides and the Cowboys scored a touchdown in that series, so it didn't matter. But this game, I'm like, you two bad teams, right?
Simon Hunter
That's. I mean, that's like incredible, though. Like the whole Russell Wilson throwing for 450 like, we, we should have died today. And I'm sure Cardinal people are feeling the exact same way where if, like you just said, we could have won this game by 20. When I'm in shock, I'm with you on the same thing where it's like, there's a couple drives there and you Thought, okay, if they can just put them away. But the Giants offense, it was incredible how good they were. So yeah, it couldn't put them away, but yeah. I'm so glad Survivor came through. I, I'm sorry, everybody. Next week will be, will be a little easier, but I just wanted to get the Cowboys. This is a great spot for them. There was no way they're going to lose and proved us right, Dak. 14 straight wins against the Giants and we'll see you next year in Survivor Deck.
Chad Melman
There was a moment when they were driving and they scored that touchdown to go up. I forgot what it was like 34, 30.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Melman
I'm like, couldn't they just kick the field goal and we'd be going to overtime? And when they actually went to overtime because they settled for a Brandon Aubrey 64 yard field goal and this dude strokes it as if it's just the eighth tea at his muni on a Saturday with his buddies drinking a beer from like 75. It was, it was pretty. Yeah, it was nuts that game. There were I think 26 penalties for. No, no, I'm not even kidding. Hold on, let me look at it. Exactly. I think it was 26 penalties for 25 penalties for 266 yards. The Cowboys had 32 first downs. Here's one. The Giants averaged 10 yards per passing attempt. I mean, are you kidding me?
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Melman
They made Russell Wilson look like the trending towards hall of Fame player that everyone thought he was when he was with the Seahawks and just winning those games. It was, wow, great. It was so exhilarating. They gave Trayvon Diggs $100 million two years ago. Micah Parsons, they gave him away.
Simon Hunter
I'll say as a, as a Cowboys hater, which I think most of the nation is, it's good days ahead, everyone. It is good days ahead.
Chad Melman
Yeah, they were like, I'm so glad we're done with that.
Simon Hunter
Dak is just on another level with those weapons, but their defense is atrocious.
Chad Melman
So glad we are done with Survivor. I actually had Cowboys, I think I said on the show on Thursday. Maybe I said it today. I was going with Cowboys and Cardinals in Survivor. I just wanted them out of the way. I do not have to worry about it the rest of the year. I got, what is it, 16 weeks and hopefully I only got good teams I got to choose from the rest of the year. I'm bummed we lost the game.
Simon Hunter
I'm glad we locked out the Broncos too. Like we're done with the Broncos. Done with the Cowboys. I'm happy on both those. Done with that? Done with both.
Chad Melman
That's right. That's totally right. So, you know, and I think I got the commanders out of the way in the first week because I'm in two pools. Look, I'm bummed we lost the game. I'm bummed we're two and three. Yeah, terrible bet, but I feel euphoric about how things ended. We'll talk about sort of how we got here in a minute. But Buffalo at New York, everybody was on the wrong side here. Like this game moved to five and a half before kickoff. And in the first half it really did feel like the jets defense was, was holding it together, but their offense was incompetent. Justin Fields was, was behind every throw, leaving yards on the field, leaving opportunities on the field. Eventually he got knocked out of the game with a potential concussion towards the end when it was out of reach. Meanwhile, Josh Allen literally breaks his nose on a play, comes out, goes back in, demolishes this team. Miss Read, miss. Well, I like Buffalo minus six and a half last week and slowly came to the other side. All in all, like the entire professional market was on the wrong side here.
Simon Hunter
Yep, that's this life bed and bad teams. Honestly, there's not much saying this game. You, you, you nailed it. Justin Field's terrible from the get go. That's what I mean. It was, I, I felt like it was a deadbed after the first drive because it just looked so dysfunctional and you know, I was never going to get out of this one. As soon as that Oliver went out, I was all in and every, like Chad said, this number moved and yeah, once again, chalk. It's, it's a good time to bet chalk right now and that's why we're trying to force in some chalk bets. And yeah, definitely a bad read, bad miss and you know, Justin Fields getting hurt. It's the offense, but to Rod Taylor is the backup. That's not that big of a downgrade. I think we agree. So we'll see going forward with the jets, that might be a buy low opportunity this team, but you saw what they look like on their worst day against a very, very well coached, disciplined team. And you know, Josh Allen, he had an okay day, but it's the, the system they have there, right? The, the cook, the running back. Yeah, he's just such a major factor for him where he, like Chad said, he can break his nose and they don't need him to be Superman the rest of the game. Like I loved how Smart. He was the rest of the game, stepping out of bounds, not taking hits. He didn't need to. Yeah, just a really good team. And like Chad said, we. We stepped in and just another bad bet.
Chad Melman
All the favorites who opened at six and who. Who closed at six and a half or higher. Detroit, Baltimore, Buffalo, and the Cardinals. Three of those games, blowouts from start to finish. One of them, blowout for 55 minutes of the game until they let it go. Talking about the Cardinals against the Panthers. Look, what was frustrating was. Let's talk about LA at Tennessee for a second, because we also loved Tennessee all week, really, because we loved Cam Ward. And there was a point in the early third quarter where I made a note. It's a weird day when the only comfort, the only quarterback you're comfortable can actually keep you in the game with a chance to cover right now is Cam Ward. And then right after that, things fell apart. Because in the first half, you're the.
Simon Hunter
One that jinxed us. I was wondering who it was.
Chad Melman
I. I jinxed us because I think.
Simon Hunter
It was, what, 16, 13 when you wrote that note.
Chad Melman
No, I think it was like I.
Simon Hunter
Had a lead there.
Chad Melman
I think it was. It was actually in the first half.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Melman
And they were losing in the first half. And then they had that incredible play at the end of the first half on that drive to score the touchdown to tie it at 10. Cam Ward, like, he threw the ball away once instead of getting sacked. He scrambled, but kept his eyes downfield, made a nice throw, and then made the. This is why you choose him. Number one overall throw, where he scrambled basically for 11 seconds and threw the ball across his body and across the field, 50 yards to a guy and led him perfectly to the corner of the end zone, and he scored a touchdown. And then the very next play, Stafford throws an interception and the Titans kick a field goal. They're up 1310 at half. Like, we're rolling. And then what happened?
Simon Hunter
I would say Stafford got in a groove, right?
Chad Melman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Like, that's really what it felt like. And then came through. Was it a. No, he fumbled, Right? He fumbled in the 20 or 30.
Chad Melman
They. They were down by four, and they had the ball in the fourth quarter and he fumbled. And that. That was sort of it, like.
Simon Hunter
So I'm saying at that point, they're up three. Stafford gets a touchdown. Cam gets the ball back. Fumbles there they get another one. Like you just said, that. That right there, you kind of knew was a dead bet because now you need Cam to drive the whole field. Touchdown. And hope that Stafford doesn't, you know, drive the field, at least get a field goal. So once again, been bad teams here. I know. I'm with you. It was brutal because that was the one game I felt really good about, like you said. And I was like, okay, we'll go one and two. Maybe we can get lucky with Dallas to go two and one here to start the day. And, you know, I'm sitting here owing three, and luckily nearby, I had a family party I could go to just for an hour, eat good food, and take my mind off our day because people are coming up asking me how my day was. I just lied and said, good, because no one wants to hear you tell them you're owing three and you need the Eagles for your lungs and.
Chad Melman
And the Colts.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the cold. So, yeah, that. That was a tough part there, brother. We're sitting there owing three, and I was just like, man, this is not how we wanted to go. And I was like, oh, and five again. We've never gone, oh, five. Chad said, you know, he was. He was worried about it. I've never feared the O&5 because we haven't gone to O&5. But it definitely crosses your mind when you start the day 0 and 3 that it's a possibility. But I was just like, one of these guys are going to cover. But I'm not gonna lie. The Eagles bet I was scared all week about it. Didn't feel very confident about it once we started. Owen 3. We're just like, I am not seeing the board. And, yeah, we'll talk about the next two games. Look, what's.
Chad Melman
What's frustrating is that we were never coming off those games. You know, we'll talk about the game that we sort of left out and that we put this next game that I want to talk about in as the default fifth, but that is the Indianapolis Colts at plus two and a half, hosting the Broncos. If we had lost this game, this. This one actually would have hurt. It probably would have hurt more than any of the other games.
Simon Hunter
And I really weak, too. I mean, it would have hurt, but it would have been like, no, no.
Chad Melman
I mean, any of the other games today because a. Because we kind of put it in because it was the game we felt least bad about, and we talked ourselves out of a game that I will get to that did win early in the day. And so that would have frustrated me. And then if you looked at the numbers in this game, like, the Colts truly dominated this game. Like, they. They're a good Team they like, this was our last game in by default. And in the through, like the first three and a half quarters, I think the Colts had 400, close to 400 yards. The Broncos had about 250. Danny Jones averaged 12.4 yards per attempt in the first half. They were. They had more first downs. They had more time of possession. Their problem was in the entire game. And this was true to the end. They couldn't get the ball in the end zone. They were two of seven in the red zone on touchdowns. And so the Broncos just kept winning because they were scoring touchdowns and the Colts were kicking field goals. And that would have killed me if we lost this game because they played better and couldn't get the ball in the end zone. That's what would have made me upset.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's another case, though, where it's like, I love what we do because we're just playing the number on a model. And you're trying to paint the storyline in your mind of how this game will go. And not that I thought the Broncos defense wouldn't show up, but we talked. I just thought they were a little overrated. The Cam Ward did have opportunities. I was thinking to myself, if Daniel Jones is pretty comparable in this offense, which again, he showed it today. He is. He'll be able to move the ball against them. And you're. You nailed it, though. The Broncos showed why they're a top defense in the red zone. To me, like, as bad as you said he did, I thought they. They did what they could in certain spots where, yeah, the Broncos are just a good defense. But, you know, between the running back, you know, Warren, the kid they drafted out of Penn State, like, there are a lot of weapons. Yeah. Taylor just, you know, he stepped up and Warren stepped up and good bet. Just a game. I'm glad that we stuck to it because it was a good number. And, you know, we talk all the time. Two and a half. I know it's stupid. I just beat into the ground. But when he hit, when he missed that field goal, I think he hit the post. The Denver kicker.
Chad Melman
Well, left for 42 yards.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Melman
Fifteen left.
Simon Hunter
I knew. I mean, it's sick, but I knew in the back of my mind the Colts were going to miss their field goal and he did. Got the penalty. What was it? The guy jumped over the center. Something stupid. I think we were on here. So I don't really know the call, but it's the best. Lined up again now. The culture 2. 0. And I mean, couldn't ask for A bigger win to set the tone for your season against a Broncos team. Like we said, if they win that game, you know, they could be in the driver's seat in their division. Right. Like that would have been such a huge win for them. And yeah, again, it's not gonna be always pretty. I was betting these dogs, but people saw us this morning, we worked through it. We're trying to find because there's a bunch of games we like. And like you said, it's weird when we do a show that we tell people what to do on Tuesday and even we don't love it come Sunday. We're kind of stuck where it's like, shouldn't we trust what we liked on Tuesday and what the fans have been on the show? So, yeah, I'm, I'm again, I'm glad I liked it. Glad you brought it up again about putting it back in and you know, definitely saved our ass going two and three with that one at the end there.
Chad Melman
Yeah, that will lots miss. That was a miracle. And it felt like the gods were smiling on us because we deserved it. We deserved it after a really hard morning.
Simon Hunter
I disagree because the Cowboys game, we should not be alive in survivors.
Chad Melman
So maybe that's true. But here's what I love. I think Kenny Albert was on the play by play for that Colts Broncos game and before they've got this kicker who's from Notre Dame. I can't remember his name, Spader maybe and Spader or Shader or something like that. And he's never missed a kick. He's had nine kicks before today, had never mixed the kick, right. So Kenny Albert, no fear before his 36 yard field goal early in the game or late in the game, he's like. And he's never missed a kick and then he nails it. And then before the 60 something yarder that he tried, he's like, never missed a kick. And of course he misses it. But then he gets the chance to do it again and he nailed it. Good for him for having a perfect record. Here's what I don't get. I'm sure you were watching the end of that game. Shane Steichen. That play calling was strange. Like, I know why they were trying to control the ball and run out the clock, but they had a third and seven, they were still outside the 40. And instead of at least trying to throw some kind of pass, safe pass to get them a little bit more yardage and they had a timeout to stop the clock, they just went with one more run that Actually lost them yardage. Like, I'm not. He was pretty aggressive during the game and I was impressed. Like, went for it a couple times and fourth down at midfield. But that was some strange play calling to me.
Simon Hunter
It has to be analytics because Dallas did the same exact thing for their.
Chad Melman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
And it was like bizarre to me because it was like, why would you just do that to kick a 64 yarder? Like you said, why not try to get a 10 yard catch or something? Get under 60. Just. We're in a new age. It's like weird times. All of it's weird. Like that whole thing with the kickers today, like you said, like, I can't believe how lucky we got with the field goals. Like, we talk all the time. It usually goes the other way for us. And today we, we got really lucky with the kickers.
Chad Melman
All right, well, let's talk about. Let's. Let's close the circle here. We'll start with the insane Cowboys game. We'll end with. And I want to give you your flowers. You stuck to your guns all week on the Philadelphia Eagles minus one and a half, the Kansas City Chiefs. This line was Eagles plus one plus one and a half last week. You highlighted it then even when it flipped, which we hate to do, you pounded the table all week long and said, we're going to take it. We got sharp calls from the wise guys. They're on the Chiefs. They're on the Chiefs. How do you not take the Chiefs? You trusted your number. You trusted your gut, you trusted your eye for talent. You made us make this play. Eagles gave us a little bit of a sweat because they were pretty sloppy in the first half. But in the end it played out exactly the way you thought it was going to play out. Their roster was just too good.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And at the end of the day, it's the same old Eagles. It was. They were incredibly boring. Hurts. I think at one point they said he didn't have a pass further downfield than like six or seven yards.
Chad Melman
Six yards.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Just so boring, so conservative. Because they just know the other team will eventually make a mistake. And that's how they will win the game. Almost by double digits. Like, yeah, Isa could have won by 10. God bless Mahomes and live betting. As soon as it got to nine and a half ten, I'm sure everyone in the world bet that number because he just. He'll never give up. He'll never die. That's why we love Mahomes. He's the best. You know, this is the this is why I love betting though because I make this number three. Like you said, pound the table, it lands right. 2017. Didn't know how I was gonna get the three, but it got there. And you know I talk about I had sleepless nights betting this number this week because it's like why am I so heavy on this game? There's so many other games, why am I picking this spot? And I think anyone that bet it's all play out the way we thought it would. Right? To know that not having number one, number two receiver, it was just so on my homes. Right. He did it with his legs. Travis Kelsey had his moments but that pick, that's gotta go on Kelsey, right. Hit him right in the hands, he messes up Makuba, the safety takes it, you know, 30 yards out of the back of the Eagles end zone and takes it 30 yards and you know, flip the game for us. So yeah, another game where we needed it bad, you know, two and three week. But yeah, we'll talk about the upcoming lines here. I think we might finally hit the breaking point that the, the Chiefs who are 0 and 2 straight up against the spread, they probably have value at this point. So I get it again, I told you I the amount of calls I got about all the trends but I said that number, that line was fishy and it felt like the pros stepped right into it, that it was a little bit of a trap. Same what we did with the Jets.
Chad Melman
Yep.
Simon Hunter
And like you said, it was a number that it was a lot of Eagles. And then came Sunday, a lot of Chiefs money did show up. So it wasn't as lopsided as I thought it was going to be. And yeah, we, we needed it and thank God it came through.
Chad Melman
This was crazy. The Chiefs were driving. It was 1310. The chiefs were in the red zone driving for the go ahead score or a field goal to tie it. And Patrick Mahomes throws a pass at Travis Kelce. He can't get his arms around it. It gets deflected. Eagles intercept it. That's the game changing play, right? They go on, they score the touchdown, they take the 10 point.
Simon Hunter
They should have picked six, but they're lucky they have a tackle that's 18.
Chad Melman
Miles per hour second literally in red zone. The second after that happened, they go to the Broncos Colts game. Bonix driving to put them further ahead. Either can be a touchdown or a field goal, but they're going to extend their lead. They're up 28, 26, throws a pass deflected Intercepted by the Colts. Literally back to back plays in red zone. This is why it is so much fun to watch football on a Sunday afternoon, whether you're winning or losing because there are game changing, bet changing, stomach turning, plays non freaking stop.
Simon Hunter
It's the best. Again, again, there's another sport like it. I try to explain it to my family over in England and they've come around, right? Like they, they have come around, they see what we're talking about. But there's just another sport that matches what Chad just talked about. There was only three games this afternoon and they all ended up being one possession games, all three of them. So it's just the best product. The NFL doesn't get anybody.
Chad Melman
All right, let's before we get to our early leans and break down a little bit more of the games we left out, let's take a quick moment, hear from our friends at Hard Rock bet. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bed. I don't know if you know this, I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season practically living there. Literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated Hard Rock BET sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida and it's also available in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado with more states launching all the time. You can also play on Hard Rock betts online casino if you were in New Jersey, Simon, I know you want to check that from here on out you'll start to see us use Hard Rock fat lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from Hard Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC just down the road from you in our future as we gear up for NFL season. Sign up for Hard Rock bet. Make a $5 bet, you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888 admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
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Simon Hunter
Ugh.
Chad Melman
Come on.
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Chad Melman
All right, so I'm going to answer some YouTube comments. They're, they're scrolling in right now. So we are going to get to those. A lot of them about next week's games. But a couple things just to finally review. Simon Good for us that we didn't get suckered by the Saints. We talked about it for a hot second this morning. We didn't get suckered all week by the massive Browns line. It would have been a game that we probably would have wanted to play, but it didn't feel right. Felt like a spot where the Ravens were going to crush. You like the Jags. I like the Bengals this morning. Wow, that was a crazy one. Bengals cover you like the Pats. I like Miami. Pat's covered. The game that we talked ourselves out of was Seattle and I loved that game all week. It was my Chad loves love. We really talked ourselves out of it because it was at two and a half. They had some injuries in the defensive backfield. Obviously that was a mistake to talk ourselves out of it. They were the better team than the Steelers. I feel like the Steelers might have some issues and that's going to be a team that we sort of got to think about a little bit as we go forward because already I'm looking ahead. I don't want to talk about it yet but like they're not that good right now.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just injuries. A lot of these teams are just. It's crazy how many teams are banged up early on here but honestly I think the CX are just good. Like I agree this is good and really good. Sam Darnold, I guess at the end of the day is probably their only true weakness, right? Like he's going to be the reason they win or lose at the end of the day. Like they have two running backs that are pretty solid and an offensive line that seems like they are just better than what they were last year. But that defense is just really good and you know they got lucky, right. A lot of things bounced their way in that game. But I think you know, just saying that they were clearly the better team than Pittsburgh that day and like you wish it was three and a half in the contest would have been a no brainer, easy play but it was two and a half. We didn't want to force it in on a bad line and yeah that was fun game. I think it was 1414. They just rolled them from that point forward. So CLX fans I'd be pretty excited like your division. I mean obviously the Rams are really good but you know it's. You never know. Like that's the type of game you need to win to be a for real team. And, you know, that was a number I wish we had played. But yeah, hopefully people bet the three, three and a half we talked about this morning.
Chad Melman
Well, look, at the end of the day, I don't think it would have made a difference. Like, the game that it would have replaced was probably the Colts. So we still would have been two and three. Right. We just. We were blind. We were not coming off the Eagles. We were not coming off the Cowboys. We were not coming off the Jets. We were not coming off the Titans. We were. We were locked into our ways. We were inflexible for whatever that means. We liked what we had. So the. This, the only game this was replacing was the Colts. So we didn't lose a game by not having the Seahawks in there.
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
Chad Melman
Okay. Simon says is the Vikings. That game is tonight. Crazy game. Lots of injuries for the Vikings. It's. It's going to be an interesting game. Chad loves love. Was Seattle that covered brass balls. Was Tennessee that lost Rock in a hard place. That was Philadelphia. We won. Simon, you got some early liens.
Simon Hunter
What was our short one? Square bets. Did I take Vikings in that, too?
Chad Melman
Sharper square. You had the Patriots and I had the Jets, I think.
Simon Hunter
Okay, so you were square sharp once again. Let's go.
Chad Melman
Yeah, exactly.
Simon Hunter
Patriots. I love it. Well, I was feeling. I was feeling it on Thursday. That's great.
Chad Melman
You were. You had the Patriots.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I love them. I just. Man, I'm telling you, Chad, you got to get back on it. We love Rabel. He's our guy.
Chad Melman
Look, I think I look well so we can talk about it. I was going to look at some of the comments for a second, but then you're bringing it up. So one of my early leads next week, I just foreshadowed Pittsburgh at New England Open. New England one and a half already down to one at Hard Rock. Bet.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Melman
Not uncomfortable with that play.
Simon Hunter
I am because I know we're going to want to take Pittsburgh once they're a dog, so we can take New England now because I agree. I feel like you're right. That's where the value is.
Chad Melman
But yeah, I'm not saying. I'm not saying it has to be a game that we're playing in the contest. I'm just saying early, lean early.
Simon Hunter
I bet you if this gets to two and a half, two or one and a half in our contest with Tomlin, it's kind of a nice spot. Honestly. For them. Because as good as New England looked, I told you, Chad, you know my feeling on Miami. That is the dead of the deadest of dead team. So yeah, I like your early read though. To me you're right. It was plus one and a half when we first got on this call. Now they're already down to plus one. So early money coming on New England.
Chad Melman
One of the other early leans I had was the jets plus six and a half right now at Hard Rock. It opened at 7, so it's moving in their direction. I don't know that I. It's back to seven.
Simon Hunter
Back to seven.
Chad Melman
I don't know if I care that much if it's just.
Simon Hunter
Let's keep it moving past with that one.
Chad Melman
Here's a question from the audience. You just brought it up. Do we go hard on Kansas City? Kansas City plus three or Kansas City in week three? It can't be over, but the Giants season can be over. So how hard do we go on the Chiefs this week?
Simon Hunter
Like. Like what are we thinking with the opening line? Or you want me to look what the opening line is?
Chad Melman
What's the opening line on the Chiefs in week three?
Simon Hunter
So the card Rock took it down. It was. We'll just go off what it was five and it was five and a half.
Chad Melman
So what do you think it reopens at?
Simon Hunter
That's what's gonna be interesting. Right. Like I honestly I would. I would take that chief's number. There's no way Russell Wilson doing what he just did against the Spags defense.
Chad Melman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
And like I just said, if you loved Mahomes in that spot, you have to love him even more in this spot against the Giants. Like that was the first time in his career we lost three games in a row. He's obviously never been owing to in his career. They have a bunch of little miscues offensively. And you see how big of a difference not having number one, number two receiver when he needs weapons. Right. He can't rely on his old tight end to make big plays and big moments. So yeah, it's an early number I'll take. If Worthy gets cleared, can easily see this jump up to six. Six and a half. So I. I get why they took it down because I bet you they just got hit hard because five and a half it's. I get the number. But the Giants don't overreact. The Giants Cowboys game, you agree?
Chad Melman
Totally agree. Okay. I feel like out of that game, I can't really take anything from it. Like it was such A weird game.
Simon Hunter
A little credit to Russell Wilson. I'm sure you will, too. He made the throws.
Chad Melman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
But I felt like he was commanders.
Chad Melman
I felt like he was in practice.
Simon Hunter
That's fair. He was thrown against what felt like air.
Chad Melman
Yeah. You know, it's like he was just like. It was a. It was a practice session for him.
Simon Hunter
I give him props. I left him for dead. I can't. I could not believe he was just making me eat every word. He was incredible.
Chad Melman
Clearly we both left him for dead because we went all in on the Cowboys, including our survivor pick. So clearly we left him for dead. By the way, that first question about Kansas City was from Vitalis. Here's another question. Muadib69, Rams money line on the Eagles next week. What do you think?
Simon Hunter
I probably wouldn't. I mean, I could. I could see this. I think it's a good read, right? Four and a half, which is what I opened it a couple books. I don't hate taking that. I mean, Hard Rock's already at plus four, so just looks like early money here is on the Ram, so I don't mind that taking that position because Eagles, you know, offensively, they just don't look like in any type of rhythm where, you know, took the Rams a little bit to get going. But once they did, you see, it's just like Puka Adams combo with Williams in the backfield. Stafford's right. It's. It's a very formal offense. But yeah, this basically that they've gone against Houston, anemic offense, the Rams and then Tennessee's offense. It's a big step up here with this Eagles team. So we'll see. You know, it's. It's. It's a. It's a good number. I'll agree with your early read here. I wouldn't do money line, but I would take the four and a half if you want to grab that right now in the Rams.
Chad Melman
Looking at the lines right now, I have one more game to bring up, but I'm. I'm hesitant to do it. So just give me some of yours and maybe it'll be one that I like and. And so I won't feel like an.
Simon Hunter
Idiot just grabbing it early and then we'll see how it plays out the rest of the week. Colts are minus three right now at the Hard Rock against Tennessee on the red. If that goes down, okay, great. We'll flip because we want to be on Tennessee anyway. But if it, if it goes up, we have a great number on the three there's no way this doesn't go down. Like to me this is going up to three and a half four. I, I can't believe we can get minus three right now on this, this Colts team. And I'll dive in and maybe have some weird history on the road in Tennessee. It's like a bad spot or something because I cannot believe just from what we see from this Colts team, I know they have injuries in their secondary but you know, they just seem like a top tier team right now. And we saw Tennessee, they're just, there's so many little poorly coached things they do. Like there was a bunch of stuff, we didn't even talk about their game of penalties. They got where they were like getting off the field and they would just make these stupid penalties. Like we said, they're just not a well coached team. So I, I grabbed the Colts right away when that one we jumped on here, the minus three, Atlanta's minus three and a half against the Carolina Panthers. I'm gonna grab that one too just in case. If they light up this Vikings team, this one will go up like that. That Panthers game is going to throw people off. Like Chad said, they got all their points when Arizona's defense was, you know, basically banged up in the secondary and playing a prevent defense and it's just a total overreaction. I can't believe that number is three and a half. It's just everything I've seen from the Panthers, they just cannot stop the run. I mean they're terrible against the run, their defense. So another early lineup grab there and you know, it's, I don't know your view on it, but I just can't see us playing Panthers.
Chad Melman
Well, I, I, it's funny you, you bring it up because I didn't want to talk about the Panthers and the Cardinals because Bryce Young was, he would look, he was great when they were out of the game. And I, as I was watching this, I was saying to myself, garbage time, garbage time, garbage time. Don't believe what you see. Don't get too excited. He was actually the Bryce Young that we got really excited about in the second half of last year where he was scrambling comfortably, keeping his eyes downfield, making accurate throws, keeping his game, his team in the game. But the Cardinals rushed for basically the entire second half. All of their defensive backs were out of the game. So I was trying to remind myself this is not real. It's like a horror movie. This is not real, right? This is not real. So I, I agree. Like I'm I'm, I'm thinking about Bryce Young for 55 minutes, not for the last five.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's a, like I joked with you, but I don't know why. I just thought the Cardinals were going to lose that game for some reason where I hit the six and a half on the Panthers know just, I, it's just again, being in sportsbooks, you talk to people enough and you, you hear what they're saying and you get convince yourself. And that's my issue with that Panthers team is I can get sucked in on it. Where it's like, I was so glad we didn't have them in the contest because I think they were down 20 to 3. I'm like, yeah, I would be killing me right now if I had been like, we got to do it. But I just, I. Where is the upset? I just been trying to find the upset for Survivor and you know, it's just not happening right now. It's two straight weeks. Everyone's surviving. The upsets just aren't happening. But yeah, it's great that our first week doing it, that we went five for five. The money line run. Robin and I know people did our five and they threw the Ravens in there just to get even more picks out of it. So, yeah, it's. If you like Ben Chalk on the money lines, you are in heaven. It's just a crazy weird time right now with the new kickoff rules, the fourth down stuff, it's just the best teams are the best quarterbacks just keep winning for the most part.
Chad Melman
Last game I want to mention, which I was going to bring up, it's what I was just referencing and you didn't bring it up, but Steven Martinez in the chat brought it up. Green Bay at Cleveland plus eight and a half.
Simon Hunter
I mean, Cleveland here, I, I have to take Cleveland plus eight and a half, right? Yeah, but we'll save that because I have, I have a lot to say about Green Bay and yeah, if you're a fan of that team, drink the Kool Aid, be all in, enjoy the hype.
Chad Melman
It's the Packers.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, if you're a Packers fan, totally. You guys deserve it. Like their first two games, they look like the best team the nfc, so. But yeah, again, that game will break down more. Just before we get out of here, if you want to grab Houston, me and Chad haven't really talked about the game that, that much this week. They're playing the Bucks at home. They're minus two and a half. Their look ahead right now is against the Jaguars. They're plus one against that Jacksonville team that I think is going to struggle offensively against that Houston defense. And if they do beat the Bucks tonight, this could easily flip to Houston being a favorite on the road against Jacksonville. That's how bad they looked against the backup quarterback today. So if, if you just want to grab the early line, that's where I'm looking for Houston just in case. Again, I don't have a major position on them against the Bucks because I just, I'm unsure about CJ and their offense. But if they do light them up and win at home, I could see this number moving. So just an early game before you get out of here.
Chad Melman
The last one just for tc. Who is asking who wins with the jets and the Bucks? We talked about it. I tried to mention it. Simon made me stop talking about it because I was, I was leaning Jets. We both think the Bucks will win the game. There you go. That's for tc. Final review of the games Just so everyone knows from the beginning, we lost the Cowboys minus five and a half. We lost the Titans plus five and a half. Who? We lost the jets plus six and a half. We won with the Colts plus two and a half and we won with the Eagles minus one and a half of our five favorite picks from this morning. Dude, I think we've done it all. We'll be back. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Check us out Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Also download us to Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Give us five stars. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
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Aired: September 15, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
This episode of Sharp or Square dives deep into NFL Week 2, analyzing key matchups, breaking down results, and reflecting on their betting outcomes. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter provide frank insights into their contest picks, address tough beats and surprising outcomes, and offer sharp early leans for NFL Week 3—always with a mix of humor, brutal honesty, and actionable betting wisdom.
Giants at Cowboys (Cowboys -5.5)
Buffalo at New York (Jets +6.5)
LA at Tennessee (Titans +5.5)
Colts +2.5 vs Broncos (Default Pick)
Eagles -1.5 at Chiefs
Survivor Pool Tactics:
Bad Beats and Emotional Resilience:
On Football Chaos:
“It’s the best. Again, again, is there another sport like it?... There was only three games this afternoon and they all ended up being one possession games, all three of them. So it’s just the best product. The NFL doesn’t get anybody.”
— Chad Millman (28:49)
On Sharp Money and Traps:
“That line was fishy and it felt like the pros stepped right into it, that it was a little bit of a trap. Same what we did with the Jets.”
— Simon Hunter (26:50)
On Quarterback Play and Bad Beats:
“Justin Fields was, he was behind every throw, leaving yards on the field, leaving opportunities on the field…”
— Chad Millman (11:01)
On Early Lines:
“Colts are minus three right now at the Hard Rock against Tennessee on the red. If that goes down, okay, great. We’ll flip because we want to be on Tennessee anyway.”
— Simon Hunter (43:14)
Chad and Simon delivered animated, honest recaps of their wins and losses, underlining the realities of betting—variance, emotional swings, and the value of process over panic. Their early reads for Week 3 reflected sharp eyes for market movement, matchup edges, and discipline. The hosts engaged directly with audience questions, provided actionable advice, and maintained their witty, relatable style.
For listeners and bettors alike, the episode was packed with practical takeaways, good-natured self-deprecation, and sharp market commentary—and, of course, plenty of football chaos.