The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square – NFL Week 3 Bets: Rams-Eagles, Lions-Ravens, Chiefs-Giants, Cowboys-Bears & More

Date: September 16, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

[Episode Overview]

This episode of "Sharp or Square" dives deep into the NFL Week 3 slate from an expert sports betting perspective. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter examine key games, spotlight sharp-vs-square angles, and challenge conventional betting wisdom—especially in a season where favorites have dominated. With a recurring theme of "perception vs. reality," they break down where public sentiment may be out of step with true team quality, how to handle early line movement, and what NFL betting trends still hold up.

[Key Discussion Points & Insights]

1. Favorites Dominate – Is the Market Broken?

• Favorites' Surge Recap: Chad opens by recapping how favorites have crushed so far (12-0 straight up for favorites of -4+; 47-4 for 6+ pt favorites since last season's Week 13).
• Effect on Bookmakers: Books have had to reduce revenue projections due to "customer friendly outcomes."
• Evolution as Bettors:
  • Chad: "If you don’t change, you don’t evolve. And we evolve, Simon. Do you want to know how we’re going to prove it this week?" [03:10]
  • Simon: “Chalk has been winning... Just four, five years ago, I would have loved the Dolphins in this spot.” [04:22]

2. Game-by-Game Breakdown

Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5)

• Classic System: Big division dog angle is dead; dogs 44% ATS since 2015.
• Consensus: No need to force a bet; good teaser option.
  • Simon: “I’m simply looking at this as a teaser spot with the Bills… I could see [the line] keep getting higher just because they [books] need Dolphins money. I just don’t see it coming.” [05:15]

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+8.5)

• Sharp Action: Early pro money on Browns as big home dogs.
• Quarterback Worries: Chad and Simon both worried about “battered Flacco” and Browns' dated/ultra-conservative offense.
• Defense Quality: Browns D is elite, but shaky QB and lack of dynamic offense raise concerns.
  • Chad: “I can’t bet on a team that has a great defense as a big dog at home if… even if the defense only gives up 20 points, they won’t even get 10.” [09:00]
  • Simon: “But this is easily the best defense Green Bay has faced this year… the Browns, they’re a dog that’s always going to be in the fight.” [09:45]

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Line Moves & Perception: Line movement favors Houston; every pro is “lining up” to bet Houston as a road dog despite the Texans' offensive line woes.
• Jags’ Troubles: Trevor Lawrence underwhelming, Jags mismanaged.
  • Chad: “He’s becoming… an impediment to that team.” [18:06]
  • Simon: “It just will not make sense. His talent, his body frame, his build, his arm talent, all of it… it’s just crazy.” [19:03]

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (Browning vs. Wentz)

• QB Uncertainty: Unreliable backups in a “backup bowl.” No strong angle, but lean to Vikings as the slightly better team.
  • Simon: “This is why we protect the quarterbacks… It’s just week three and we’re down five starters.” [23:29]

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+5.5)

• Injury-Driven Move: Panthers’ O-line injuries have moved the line from 3.5 to 5.5.
• Leaning Off: Preferred play at better numbers; might consider Panthers if line stretches to +7 but not forcing it.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-1.5)

• Disappointing Defenses: Steelers’ vaunted defense giving up huge rushing numbers, playing soft.
• Vrabel’s Titans (“Believe in Vrabel”): Simon less bullish after tape review; Patriots may be bad.
• Trend Watch: Teams 0-2 ATS in Week 3 cover 60% since 2010 (Steelers one of them).
  • Chad: “Are you ready for a trend? Teams that have failed to cover in the first two weeks, in week three, 60% against the spread since 2010.” [33:05]

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

• Public Misperception: Rams possibly overhyped for early season “grit;” Eagles seen as boring but are “chameleons” (find a way to win no matter the style).
• Home/Away & Trends: Eagles have dominated Rams in recent meetings.
• Eagles Offensive Coordinator a Concern: Lack of experience and basic playcalling is the only major weakness.
  • Simon: “As an Eagles fan, this is peak right now of my fandom… people want [the tush push] banned, they want it out of the game forever. And I love it.” [35:57]

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (+3.5)

• QB Mystery: Jaden Daniels’ health a huge factor; sharp early Raiders money if Daniels can't go.
• No Strong Lean Yet: Wait for injury news. [41:40]

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)

• Jets As Gross Value: Signals “scream” take the Jets after blowout loss; line inflation post-Bucs’ dramatic MNF win.
• QB Uncertainty: Tyrod Taylor possible upgrade—Jets defense still effective up front.
  • Simon: “I actually kind of love the Jets in this spot... I’m gonna hate it, because they got burned from it last week, but you can’t bet that way as a bettor... I love the seven.” [44:24]

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

• Very Public Side: Everyone loves the Colts as favorites; numbers make sense, but extreme public side is scary.
• Sharp Angles: “Division dog at home of +3 is always sharp but feels chalky.” [49:07]
• Possible Trap: Both hosts wary of getting “lazy” and defaulting to the crowd play here.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

• Pros vs. Joes: Pros love Saints, public will lean Seahawks.
• Strong Model Edge on Saints: But Simon is a little scared—“How do the Saints move the ball and score against this Seahawks defense?”
  • Simon: “But what you just said terrifies me. How do the Saints move the ball and score against the Seahawks defense?” [54:05]
• May be a contest play if the number holds.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

• Simon’s Favourite – “Simon Says” Play: Loves Broncos in a classic sharp-vs-square spot. Public bailing after two ATS losses.
  • Simon: “Simon says, give me Denver... love, love, love, love Denver in this spot.” [56:56]
  • Dings Chargers for being “peaked out,” Broncos undervalued.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

• Another “Simon Says” Play: Bears, as the most desperate 0-2 ATS team, are a must-bet. He calls this a classic ugly sharp play.
  • Simon: “You have to bet this one. If you’re a fan of this show, you gotta do it... It’s all bad. It’s all negative right now for this Bears team.” [62:22]
• Front Office Rant: Bears have management issues, but this is the type of “buy low” spot that hits over 60%.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

• No Real Edge: Simon’s model makes this line about right.
• Injury Watch: Cards secondary banged up; lean Niners if injuries are serious, but no real enthusiasm.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (+5.5)

• Chad’s “Chad Loves Love” Play: Chiefs at -5.5/-6 considered a value. He’d still play it at 6 with push protection.
  • Chad: “I think the Chiefs are primed to really pull off a mastermind trick here... Chad loves, love, Chad loves the Chiefs.” [71:56]
• Market Movement: Number moving fast as pros hit both sides; don’t bet past 6.5.
• Sharps Love Giants, Public Will Hammer Chiefs: Books know what they're doing on this line.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

• Early Sharp Move: Pros hit Lions at +6, +5.5; market has slid to +4.5 at several books.
• Ravens’ Win Over Browns Was Fluky: Most points came off short fields or returns. Defense still “middle of the road.”
  • Chad: “I feel like five and a half is still too high for this game. This was going to be my other Chad Loves Love.” [77:10]
• Both Lean Lions at the early number.

[Notable Quotes]

• Chad (perception vs. reality): “This episode really is perception and reality. Old school philosophy versus reality. The reality... is that these big dogs just ain't hitting like they used to.” [03:25]
• Simon (on betting dead angles): “Just four, five years ago, I would have loved the Dolphins in this spot…these big dogs, they just ain’t hitting like they used to.” [04:25]
• Simon (Eagles): “As an Eagles fan, this is peak right now of my fandom... people want [the tush push] banned, they want it out of the game forever. And I love it.” [35:57]
• Chad (on Bears): “The Bears fit the model, you know what I mean? Like they're the team that hasn't covered, so much animosity and negativity against them…” [62:10]
• Chad (Chiefs): “Chad loves love, Chad loves the Chiefs at five and a half. Though I would still play it at six.” [71:36]

[Timestamps for Key Segments]

• 03:10 — Evolving as bettors: Adapting to favorites' hot streak
• 04:30 — Dolphins-Bills (+12.5): Why avoid big dog auto-betting
• 09:45 — Packers-Browns: Elite D, battered Flacco, is Cleveland live?
• 14:23 — Texans-Jags: Why sharps love ugly Houston
• 18:06 — Trevor Lawrence: From golden boy to team impediment?
• 33:05 — 0-2 ATS teams trend (Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, etc.)
• 35:17 — Rams-Eagles: Peak Philadelphia hate and why it matters
• 44:24 — Jets-Bucs: Why Jets offer contrarian value at +7
• 49:07 — Colts-Titans: Isn’t +3.5 too obvious?
• 54:05 — Saints-Seahawks: Model loves Saints, but can they score?
• 56:56 — Broncos-Chargers: “Simon Says” play of the week
• 62:22 — Cowboys-Bears: Ugly sharp of the week
• 71:36 — Chiefs-Giants: “Chad Loves Love” special
• 77:10 — Lions-Ravens: Why taking Detroit +5.5 (if you can grab it)

[Summary Table: Sharp/Square Takes & Consensus Lean]

| Matchup | Line | Lean / Note | Key Take/Sharp Side | |---------------------|-----------------|--------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Dolphins @ Bills | BUF -12.5 | Pass/teaser only | Big dogs don't cover now; teaser leg only | | Packers @ Browns | CLE +8.5 | Watch line, lean CLE | Early sharp on CLE, but Flacco worries | | Texans @ Jaguars | JAX -1.5 | Lean HOU | Pros love ugly Houston; Jags mismanaged | | Bengals @ Vikings | MIN +3 | Weak lean MIN | Backup bowl, not contest material | | Falcons @ Panthers | CAR +5.5 | Pass, ML round robin | May buy CAR at +7 but not before | | Steelers @ Pats | NE -1.5 | Watch line, trend vs. NE | Steelers fit 0-2 ATS trend (60% cover in Wk3) | | Rams @ Eagles | PHI -3.5 | Lean PHI | Rams overhyped, Eagles peak “hate” | | Raiders @ Commanders| WAS -3.5 | Wait for injury news | Daniels status critical | | Jets @ Bucs | TB -7 | Lean NYJ | Gross value after blowout, monitor Fields status | | Colts @ Titans | TEN +3.5 | Lean IND, wary of chalk | Division dog angle, but so public it's scary | | Saints @ Seahawks | SEA -7.5 | Pros on Saints | Great number, but worried about Saints offense | | Broncos @ Chargers | LAC -2.5 | “Simon Says” DEN | Home divisional dog value | | Cowboys @ Bears | CHI -1.5 | “Simon Says” CHI | Super buy low, ugly sharp, fits 0-2 ATS trend | | Cardinals @ 49ers | SF -1.5 | Mild lean SF | Wait for injury report, number fair | | Chiefs @ Giants | NYG +5.5 | “Chad Loves” KC | Buy low on KC, below a key number | | Lions @ Ravens | BAL -5.5 | Lean DET (early) | Early pros hit +6/+5.5, beware Ravens injury luck |

[Memorable/Notable Moments]

• Eagles Fans Relish Hate: Simon’s rant about the Eagles being so good at the “tush push” QB sneak it should be banned and the ensuing national hate ("As an Eagles fan, this is peak…").
• Model v. Gut: “There’s a couple of games this week that just make your stomach turn taking it…” – Simon, on Texans and other sharp ugly sides.
• Chad’s “Chad Loves Love” Picks: Embracing value on Chiefs and (almost) Lions.

[Wrap-Up & Looking Ahead]

To Watch for Thursday's Show:

• Closely monitoring lines on Browns, Steelers, Eagles, Jets, Colts, Saints, Denver, Bears, Chiefs, Lions.
• Thursday will feature final contest picks, Moneyline round robins (favorites & dogs), and Survivor/Brass Balls bets.

Closing Words:
Chad and Simon stress the importance of evolving betting strategies to reflect new NFL realities, caution against blindly following historical angles, and highlight the value of tracking injury news and line movement throughout the week.

For listeners new or returning, this episode offers a candid, stat-driven breakdown of NFL Week 3. It's a must-listen for anyone who wants to understand where the sharp money's headed and which market narratives might be steering you wrong.