Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd — "Sharp or Square: NFL Week 3 Bets"

Date: September 23, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This week’s Sharper Square dives deep into the NFL Week 3 slate, focusing on betting angles, sharp vs. square sides, and early line movement. Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down each matchup using a mix of data, intuition, veteran betting experience, and sharp banter. They address questions about their record-tracking, discuss trends in line value, and debate which underdogs, favorites, and chalky plays deserve action this week.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Life as a Professional Bettor and Record-Keeping

• The show opens with both hosts reflecting on the fatigue and emotional ups-and-downs of a bettor’s football Sunday.
• Simon confesses the exhaustion after a long betting weekend, explaining his Sunday night demeanor:

  "You just have to understand, I'm literally... just holding on, trying not to say anything crazy on the Sunday night show." (03:06)

• Official season record: 9–6 after a 3–2 weekend.

  "For the record, we went three and two over the weekend for the season." (06:04)

Matchup Breakdowns and Betting Insight

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Thursday Night)

• Line: Cardinals -1.5
• Both flag early value on the Cardinals, expecting line movement with James Conner’s injury news still pending.
• Simon expects Seahawks money to flip the line.

  "I'm almost positive they're going to back the Cardinals here in this number in this spot." (11:25)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)

• Line: Steelers +2.5
• Noted wild line movement: from Steelers -1.5 to +2.5 after both teams’ last games.
• Simon skeptical of Carson Wentz ("square" idea to back him).
• Early pro money is on the Vikings, but Simon leans toward Pittsburgh at +3 or more, citing "Tomlin magic" in games where Steelers “should” lose.

  "It's the Pittsburgh magic." (15:25)

LA Chargers at New York Giants

• Line: Giants +6
• Chad quizzes Simon on Chargers/Chiefs comparisons, noting Chargers seem underrated by the market.
• Both lean Chargers -6 (Chad’s "Chad Loves" pick, see below).

  "This is the type of team they beat 20–7…Herbert’s aside. I think our contest will be five and a half…very tempted to put them in Sunday." (19:44)

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

• Line: Patriots -5.5
• Surprised by line size and the heavy move toward New England.
• Pros are backing the Patriots, but both hosts remain wary, feeling these teams are equally weak.

  "This is a Patriots line, Patriots number. But I just can’t get over the fact that Panthers are undervalued." (23:22)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Line: Bucs +3.5
• Simon’s "Simon Says" pick: “Give me Tampa +3.5.”
• The line has moved due to injuries on both sides.
• Both agree the public will be heavy on Eagles after last week’s freak ending against the Rams, but the value is with Tampa Bay.

  "It’s going to be all Eagles money, all the teasers, all the parlays…the sharp side is going to be this Tampa team." (31:50)

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

• Line: Lions -8.5
• Both love the Lions with Chad observing the Browns offense "so bad and ineffective, it could not move the ball."
• Discussion centers on the Browns' tough early schedule and Lions’ offensive firepower at home.

  "I'm so glad you said that. There's a little bit of clarity after three weeks…you’re getting a much better team that loves to run up the score and go full throttle at home." (41:19)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

• Line: Texans -7
• Simon notes sharp money likely on the Titans due to market overcorrection, but doesn’t trust their staff/offense.
• Both prefer to pass; the number reflects how poorly the Titans are seen by bookmakers.

  "I'm happy to pass on this one. Sharp side probably will be Tennessee…I'll just avoid this one like the plague." (45:42)

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

• Line: Bills -16.5
• Both agree Bills are the side, with model numbers supporting the high point spread.

  "A huge favorite against a really bad team...There’s a huge gap between these really good teams and these really bad teams." (48:25)

Indianapolis Colts at LA Rams

• Line: Rams -3.5
• Both see buy-low value on Rams after public moves line toward the Colts. Simon likes Rams "when it gets to three."
• Chad: "We're betting the spot, not betting anything about the matchup."

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

• Line: 49ers -3 (-120)
• Simon would favor Niners closer to -6 if Brock Purdy plays. Nick Bosa injury a factor, but “the Sharps are on the Niners.”
• Both are completely out on Trevor Lawrence as a difference-maker.

  "That team feels like it's on a knife's edge of just descending into chaos..." (64:17)

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

• Line: Chiefs +2.5
• Both marvel at how much the line tempts bettors to take the Ravens, but Simon won’t "bet the Ravens side. I just cannot do it and come on the show and say that I’m a professional."
• He calls this the "squarest line of the week" and expects most pros to take Chiefs at home plus points:

  "I cannot believe this line is still holding at two and a half. I personally, I can't bet the Raven side. This is so chalky, so trappy, stinks to high heavens." (67:05)

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

• Line: Raiders -1
• Both note wild line movement between favorite and dog as the market tries to make sense of the Bears’ upset and Raiders up-and-down play.
• Simon believes the Bears aren’t as good as last week’s score; "betting the number," but not a high-conviction pick here.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)

• Line: Cowboys +7
• Chad and Simon describe an injury-riddled Dallas as undervalued, but neither want to force it as a contest play.
• Simon:

  "I'm taking the seven, but I'm not putting a lot on it." (78:29)

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

• New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: Dolphins -2.5.
  Simon: Lean Miami despite sharp money coming in on the Jets at 3.
• Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos: Broncos -7.
  Simon likes Denver; Chad thinks the sharp side is Cincy, but can't pull the trigger on a bad team.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On being a professional bettor:

  "I know...it’s just a hard job...The stress of getting picks right, not sleeping…and then it comes through…I’m just...trying to hold it together." (04:21, Simon)

• On public vs sharp sides:

  "This is for sharp and square: the square side is gonna be the Eagles, and the very, very sharp side is going to be this Tampa team." (31:50, Simon)

• On betting ugly underdogs:

  "When you’re betting a terrible dog, you have permission not to watch it." (Prize-winning listener review, 87:01)

• On the line movement:

  "There are so many games this week where the books are telling you what side the sharp money is on." (various, throughout)

• On their contest and community:

  “We have gotten some excellent feedback and some 5 star reviews on Apple…T Mike Mac, Jimmy Half Greek, your compadre…you're getting some swag.” (87:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Life as a pro bettor, record discussion: 02:24–06:51
• Seahawks at Cardinals breakdown: 07:04–11:25
• Vikings-Steelers in Dublin: 11:25–16:41
• Chargers at Giants: 16:41–22:08
• Eagles at Bucs ("Simon Says" = Bucs +3.5): 28:48–32:24
• Browns at Lions: 37:47–43:24
• Bills-Saints, massive point spread: 48:04–51:08
• Ravens at Chiefs ("squarest" line of the week): 65:43–71:17
• Raiders-Bears, line volatility: 73:45–77:19
• Cowboys-Packers, SNF: 77:19–81:45
• Chad Loves pick reveal/closing: 85:52–88:12
• Contest winners & wrap-up: 88:12–end

Consensus Picks, Leans, and Featured Bets

(As discussed as favorites for Thursday show):

• Chad Loves: Chargers -6 (up to -6.5 okay after Russell Wilson benched)
• Simon Says: Buccaneers +3.5
• Other Leans for Contest:
  • Lions -8.5 (wait for 8)
  • Bills -16.5
  • Rams -3 or better
  • 49ers -3 (if Purdy plays)
  • Chiefs +2.5
  • Raiders -1 (value if line flips)
• Many favorites flagged as feeling “wrong” but presenting the right numbers and spots.

Tone & Speaker Style

The episode is marked by fast-paced, sharp give-and-take with plenty of friendly ribbing ("Congrats on having Herbert in your top 10!"), data-backed analysis, and the clear tension between their experience (“trusting the numbers/spot”) and the week’s slate, which tempts them toward favorites more than usual. They maintain a candid, sometimes self-deprecating tone, especially when confessing when they "just can’t trust" particular sides, or when a line seems "so trappy" that it's hard to trust even their intuition.

Summary for Non-Listeners

Millman and Hunter break down each NFL Week 3 game with deep discussion of market movement, “trap” lines, and sharp vs. square logic. Veterans of the sports betting grind, they highlight how “pro” money is shaping the week’s biggest bets, express surprise at the market’s love for certain sides (and disrespect for others), and — despite feeling like it’s perilously chalky — side with the numbers for several favorites. The show is loaded with context about why certain line moves matter, how pros approach ugly teams, and when it’s okay to pass. The community-centric finish rewards listeners, emphasizing their collective journey through the betting season.

For those who want the bottom line: This week the hosts find themselves more comfortable with big favorites and market “obvious” sides — but as always, they’re ready to zig when the market zags, placing their trust not in emotion but in experience and numbers.