Chad Millman (3:44)

It's so funny that you bring that up. You and I haven't discussed that, but I got on that show and I was like overwhelmed with joy.

Simon Hunter (3:56)

You're a normal human.

Chad Millman (3:57)

Yeah. And like, I was. I was actually surprised and I thought to myself, man, he's really taken this sort of even keel professional better. I asked you like on the show, I texted you, can you believe what's happening? And you just texted back, football. Like, I stand by that.

Simon Hunter (4:13)

I stand by that.

Chad Millman (4:14)

I know, but your lack of enthusiasm was. Was marked. I. We haven't talked about it. I'm glad you're referencing that.

Simon Hunter (4:21)

Fantastic. If I was all right and I was like, yeah, I'm not dead inside. I just. It's just a hard job. I know. It's. People think, you know, it's. It's easy at some points of your life, but yeah, the. The stress of. To get the picks right. Not sleeping. And then it comes through. I'm just. The Arsenal show. I'm just literally trying to hold it together and go through the games. And that's why I think people enjoy the show. It's like you just see two guys either happy or both just equally dead inside talking about their picks.

Chad Millman (4:49)

Well, what's funny is I want people to picture this when they think about the Sunday night show. You're miserable. Haven't slept in 36 hours. I walk up from to my third floor where my office and slash studio is to do the show. And by that time, you know, on the east coast in the fall, it's dark and I turn on the Lights and that walk, it feels like the longest walk in the world coming up to the third floor to do that, that show on Sunday nights. So in that respect, I completely feel your pain. It's hard to be enthusiastic at the end of that day, but we're going to do it for the listeners, we're going to do it for the viewers, we're going to do it for the people that are riding with us. I hope they rode with us on the Chiefs minus five and a half. I was all in. You were semi in. I hope they rode with us on the Lions at plus five and a half early in the week. Last week I was all in. You were semi in.

Simon Hunter (5:51)

Like I know. Confident. You were definitely the way more confident on the line side, right? I was like I'll do because I'm just the Ravens defense, but I still don't know about that offensive line. And I think we got our answer. Which, which, which side has more problems right now. The Lions offensive line doesn't.

Chad Millman (6:04)

Well, that's what we're going to get to, right? We're going to, we're going to dig in on all that today. Listen, I've gotten a lot of questions, all fair and appropriate about how are we tracking our record? Where are we telling people The Tuesday show is where we will give people the final results from Sunday and from the weekend because sometimes we have the Sunday night, Monday night games and then we will also reveal how we are doing on the season. So for official record record keeping, we went three and two over the weekend for the season. We are now nine and six. You should be seeing. If you're watching on YouTube, should be seeing a graphic up there. Totally fair to be asking.

Simon Hunter (6:43)

Be cleaner in the future too, right? We both agree we'll have something better in the future. We're just, we're transitioning. Yeah, we're transitioning. Trying to make it. We're doing the best we can, people.

Chad Millman (6:51)

We're doing the best we can.

Simon Hunter (6:51)

We want. We want something better in the future as well for tracking our picks and we will have that figured out.

Chad Millman (6:57)

Mostly we used to have accounts at another company and they disabled them so. So we can use them.

Simon Hunter (7:02)

It's tough on both sides.

Chad Millman (7:04)

Listen, that. That's what. And then we'll do our final picks here on Sunday mornings. You got to listen and watch. We'll flash the graphics every Tuesday. We got a lot to get to today, including the end of the show. The long promised winner of our reader comment contest. The winner will get some amazing swag. Listen we're going to figure out what the swag is. We barely know where the Slack channel is at this point. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Interesting lines, Simon. As exciting as the games were over the weekend, we still had eight games decided by double digits. More than three of those were decided by 30 plus points. So we're gonna see some inflated lines, right? And we're gonna see some teams that are truly terrible and potentially no inflation is enough. And I, I think we both changed our tune on when you know it's it's not quite as obvious as it used to be to back the big dogs. Don't forget, get the show with Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video. While you are at it, you can subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pod, Spotify, wherever you get your pots. Thursday Night Football Seattle at Arizona. Arizona is a one and a half point favorite at Hard Rock. Bet Simon I immediately flagged this as a game I was interested on Sunday night liking the Cardinals. That was before the James Connor news. That feels like a sharp play to back the Cardinals, but I haven't bet it. I'm keeping my powder dry. I don't feel strongly about it.

Simon Hunter (8:39)

Yeah, interesting number. I did. I I honestly thought they would make the Seahawks a favorite just because coming off a huge win, like we said, public perception and that's where the money's going to go. So on the line. I'm not rushing to bet but I am just as you I'm on the Cardinals side. Thursdays have been good to us. I think we're3.0 this season and even though we haven't played in the contest, only we played a Friday, we played the Chargers in a Friday game contest but no Thursdays. But they've been hitting for us and this just feels like last week another easy spot where it's like the home favorite getting less than a field goal on a short week. And you know the biggest concern is the Cardinals secondary. Right. They're really banged up. Can Sam Donald take advantage of that? We'll see. I've seen this matchup so honestly wanted to flip. Kyler is a dog. I I think he's like one of the best guys.

Chad Millman (9:31)

Yeah. That's kind of what I'm waiting for.

Simon Hunter (9:33)

Right. So that's where I'm at where I'm like trying to be patient. A lot of these numbers like we talked on Sunday, they're so close like that Vegas Chicago 9 that they can flip. It all depends on what books are shopping at. So be patient. See if you can get a plus one and a half. Maybe we'll touch again on this one on Thursday. But I, I just don't think anything will change. Me and Chad will be on the Cardinals most likely and if it, it doesn't flip, I'm stuck taking the one minus one and a half. I'll take it on the Cardinals. But yeah, not, not one of my more confident bets this week.

Chad Millman (10:02)

I don't know why it hasn't flipped yet. That's, that's what's confusing to me, especially with Connor being out. Especially with the Seahawks doing what they did.

Simon Hunter (10:12)

There's a bunch of half points, Chad, and there's a pick out there. It will flip.

Chad Millman (10:16)

Okay.

Simon Hunter (10:16)

Like there's already, if they're, if they're already moving to half a point, which is such a dumb thing, they'll flip. So. Yeah, I'm with you. Every, every, every book right now is. Oh, one book did flip though. A four lettered word. Your ex employee from back in the day. They're the only book right now that has car.

Chad Millman (10:35)

Interesting as a dog.

Simon Hunter (10:37)

That's, that's, that's. Be patient. We're already seeing like here we are very early Tuesday morning. They've already flipped that one book. Yeah, I think you have the right read here. Just wait or you can go grab that + 11 1/2 right now if you get in your state. So yeah, pretty interesting line movement. I think your, your early read was right that Cardinals is the right side. But be patient, the Seahawks will flip this line. They're just, they just had a blowout win. They're a pretty healthy. Everyone's kind of in love with them. They're going to get the majority of the money in this matchup.

Chad Millman (11:06)

They're going to get got.

Simon Hunter (11:09)

Yeah, most likely it's, it's never a good spot early in the season here where you have huge wins and you have a short week playing against a team that just lost in a divisional game. Yeah, it tends to be historically a bad spot, so I'll look at the trends and stuff, but I'm almost positive they're going to back the Cardinals here in this number in this spot.

Chad Millman (11:25)

Simon, can I wish you a top of the morning because we're going to Dublin and the Minnesota Vikings are playing the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are two and a half point underdogs. The game's at 9:30 Eastern. You're going to have to get up a little bit early to watch that game. Wacky wacky line movement on this one because the Steelers were actually a point and a half favorites heading into the games on Sunday. And then, you know, because of what the Vikings did against the Bengals and I think a little bit about what the Steelers did against the Patriots, the line has moved a full four points since the end of both of those games. You know, I get it. I get the move. Like, the Steelers have not been impressive to me at all. They needed to bring blitzes to get pressure against the Patriots on Sunday when they've spent about $100 million on defensive specialists who are designed. Who are supposed to be getting pressure without needing to bring the blitz. Aaron Rodgers still looks pretty mediocre and pedestrian. They kind of won that game because the Patriots literally handed it to him. But am I buying Carson Wentz? Is that a. Is that a sharp idea, Simon, to buy Carson Wentz?

Simon Hunter (12:49)

That would be the square idea, right? And I'm killing myself because we joked on Sunday. I bet it because I thought this was in Pittsburgh. And this line makes total sense being in Dublin. The Steelers have been outplayed in all three of their games. Should be 0 and 3. You know why they're not Chad, That Tomblin magic. The man does it every year. And every year, people have the same conversation you're having right now is they've been outplayed, They've done this, they've done that. They're not that good. And they will be 9 and 8, and it will not make sense to anybody. I don't really need validation. I just think it's difficult to box without sparring, sharpen our sword for the battle. But this is like the first year. I could say that people will have their doubts because there's so much to point at. Like, how can this luck continue where, like you said, their defense is bad, like Aaron Rodgers, you can just look at the numbers and the metrics. Don't even need to watch the tape. There are so many ways to attack him now with all of his glaring weaknesses. There's so many things he cannot do, and their offensive line has major problems. So Pittsburgh here at this number, I think it's honestly right. Like, I honestly didn't get it because I thought they were at home. But in Dublin, the Vikings are a better team right now, and health wise, they're healthier. But you are a fool if you are taking wins here with this number. Like, they're hard rock. I'm looking at live here in Jersey. They just hit the plus 3 minus 115 on the Steelers So that's. It's all Vikings money professionally early here. So you know that could be the right read because it's such a random game in Dublin. We've seen international games. The favorites cover they win. Like that's usually the right play to make. But I can't get over it like +3 chance of getting three and a half against Wentz won't put more than a buck on it. But I will no doubt end up on this Pittsburgh side. And I said it last week, these backup quarterbacks, I think they went Owen to the guys who made start the week before. It's always different in the second week. Carson Wentz can be able to get away with it because there's no real tape. Like they didn't really have to do anything right. The Vikings offense, they just. Jordan Mason needed a death and had two pick sixes. Like they just didn't need to show anything on tape with win. So it's good spot for the Vikings. So I, I get why the early money here is on them and I'll just be another spot. I'll be patient, not going to force it. I'll take the plus the year three and a half if it gets there on this Pittsburgh side it's just a gross international game. But I, I love, I love this for Tomlin. It's just this team is so talent where they should be 0 and 3 and they are somehow like Chad said, 2 and 1 and it's. It's the Pittsburgh magic.

Chad Millman (15:25)

By the way, put some respect on Mac Jones's name because he did, he did win last week, his second week as a starter, as a backup, which I liked. And, and you know, you walked me back because you don't believe in Mac the way I believe.

Simon Hunter (15:40)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (15:41)

You didn't cover in Big Mac. I believe in Big Mac.

Simon Hunter (15:44)

He.

Chad Millman (15:44)

Here's my question about the Steelers. Here's my question about the Steelers when in the past Tomlin magic worked because their defense always found a way to strip sack, get the interception.

Simon Hunter (15:58)

They just did that last week.

Chad Millman (15:59)

I know but sometimes like their defense was better when they were doing it. To me this felt like this. The Patriots handing it to him. Not so much. The Steelers defense making a play. Number one. Maybe. Look, maybe I'm. I'm picking nits here.

Simon Hunter (16:15)

Tough.

Chad Millman (16:15)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (16:15)

You're being a little tough.

Chad Millman (16:16)

Number one. Number two.

Simon Hunter (16:18)

We're on the same page as that. But this is what they do every year. It's bizarre. I know.

Chad Millman (16:22)

I do wonder about Aaron Rodgers who's basically playing flat footed against Brian Flores defense, which is, you know, top 10 and pressure rate and blitz rate.

Simon Hunter (16:32)

Yeah, no, that's what I mean. It's the early money here. Makes sense to be on the Vikings. I agree with that. I just, I can't get over back in Wentz again in the spot.

Chad Millman (16:41)

LA Chargers. The dominant LA Chargers. The Chargers who are breaking our hearts at the New York Football Giants. Giants are six point underdogs at home at Hard Rock Bet in New Jersey. Look, the game opened five and a half. We're going to talk about, you know, what the sharp side is in a second. But my question is. I want you to answer these questions. Four questions. I want you to answer them for me. Yes. No questions. Do we think Justin Herbert is better than Patrick Mahomes right now?

Simon Hunter (17:18)

No.

Chad Millman (17:20)

Do we think the Chargers receiving core is better than the Chiefs receiving core right now?

Simon Hunter (17:25)

Yes.

Chad Millman (17:26)

Do we think the Chargers defense can be as effective as the Chiefs defense right now? Yeah. Do we have the Chargers power rated ahead of the Chiefs right now?

Simon Hunter (17:39)

Of course. Of course. Yes.

Chad Millman (17:41)

So isn't it interesting that the Chargers are the same favorites in terms of point spread as the Chiefs were last week when the Chargers are clearly a better team than the Chiefs are right now. I'd be very curious to see where you have this power rated because it feels to me like the Chargers, you know, completely based on the ratings and what the Chiefs were last week and what the Giants did, should be a little bit bigger favorites to me.

Simon Hunter (18:15)

That's fair. Yeah. I had, I believe I had the Chiefs. I'd have to look. I almost positive had it at six or six and a half. And that's why I said at six and a half you wanted to get Giants understood it. But we, we said all week the five and a half was a side. And Chad knows me. I was just terrified of Mahomes winning big. So I end up just really being heavy on the money line. The Chiefs there. This, this is different. Where this is Chargers versus a bad team. I have this at minus 7. This is the type of team they beat 20 to 7 or 23. Like this is totally. Herbert might not have his best game. You saw you can get pass rush against the Chargers right there. That was my whole thing liking Denver there like there was gonna be ways to get after Herbert, which, you know that final job we talked about, that was like. That's why everyone, all of us all hype them.

Chad Millman (19:02)

Because that's, that's why for me, for me, He's a top 10 quarterback.

Simon Hunter (19:08)

Yeah, but that's not even saying much. He's done anything. Congrats on having him as your top 10.

Chad Millman (19:13)

You. You don't have him in your top 10.

Simon Hunter (19:15)

I'm in my top 12.

Chad Millman (19:17)

Oh, by the way, when I made the argument that Dak Prescott was In my top 12, you're like, come on.

Simon Hunter (19:22)

You did. You gave out your top 12 and you had Tua ahead of Dak. I think you had Stafford at 11 again. Chad, you don't bring up the QB rankings. You are terrible at the QB rankings one year young.

Chad Millman (19:32)

All I know is. All I know is I and Herbert in my top 10.

Simon Hunter (19:35)

Congrats. And he still doesn't want anything ever. Chad's taking a victory lap.

Chad Millman (19:41)

You can't argue against this. Go ahead. Continue with your. With your hand.

Simon Hunter (19:44)

What am I arguing against? I said he's been good in September. The guy's always doing his career in the playoffs. Chad's taking a victory lap. He also. Chad didn't have hurts in his top 10 last year. Great call, Chad. You're killing it. Keep it up.

Chad Millman (19:57)

I had hurts this year in the top 10.

Simon Hunter (19:59)

Great call. You won the Super Bowl.

Chad Millman (20:00)

Oh, don't get. Don't get pissy with me. Continue with your analysis.

Simon Hunter (20:04)

Brought it up.

Chad Millman (20:05)

Please.

Simon Hunter (20:06)

This is what you wanted. You want to bring up Q rankings that you're terrible at every year.

Chad Millman (20:09)

Justin.

Simon Hunter (20:10)

Yeah. Herbert's aside. Like, I think our contest will be five and a half because that was the opening line. I will be very tempted to put them in Sunday. It's just a good number in a team that should have lost last week. Huge win if you're trying to catch them here. Right. Because I think they're what, 30 ATS? So historically probably a bad spot. But it's just interesting where it's five and a half six against this Giants team. You know, this should be a really good match for them. It's like they have a suffocating defense and an offense that can move the ball against this type of defense of the Giants have. So, yeah, I think your early read is right. Probably should be seven. They're kind of giving their respect to the Chiefs because that was such a prime time area spot, I guess. But early money obviously charges here. I'm like looking at the splits, it's same thing as the Chiefs. It's all. All Chargers money. So I think we're going to start seeing a pattern here of the. The pros, the Sharps, they're going to like the giant side every week and the squares like we are. We will try to fade this Giant side every week because we just. We just think they're bad.

Chad Millman (21:13)

Isn't that weird? Like, why can people. Why aren't people able to walk away from the Giants? It's totally got Panthers vibes, and maybe by the second half of the year, that's when the. The tide will turn a little bit and this defense will be a little bit better. And, you know, the offense maybe can be more effective, which is what happened with the Panthers last year. But they're trash right now. And I do think with the Chargers, I think Jim Harbaugh mitigates a lot of the emotional swings that befall a lot of teams in this position. The way he manages his team, the way he coaches his team, he's so sharp with the rules. Like, he's not gonna. There's not gonna be something that they don't take advantage of that might wreck other teams that don't have him as a coach. Think he's just really good.

Simon Hunter (22:06)

Yeah, he's incredible.

Chad Millman (22:07)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (22:08)

I love guys who like football, and guys that like football, they like me back. I like them back. Even guys that don't like football, I mean, they try to avoid me because I'm always trying to get them to like football more.

Chad Millman (22:19)

I wanted to make this. Chad loves it. Scares me a little bit because it's so chalky.

Simon Hunter (22:27)

It is. You could be getting the best of the number where this could easily get up to seven. I mean, like, that was the thing that was spooky about the Chiefs, where it's like, I couldn't believe we were still getting the five and a half that Sunday night. And it's like, this is such a good number in a matchup. They should win. And you can't always be scared off. Right. Chiefs rule. What was it, 22, nine. And it's like, gotta trust your gut. So that was, again, great call by you last week. If you want to do Chargers, I'm not gonna fight you off. I told you, if it's five and a half, Chad, I'll probably be with you on Sunday getting in our contest.

Chad Millman (22:55)

I might want to come back to it. I going to come back to it. All right. You helped talk me into that. And it was. It was one of like three or four that I'm debating. I didn't have a consensus yet. Carolina at New England. The line is five and a half right now. What's weird is the line moved up four and a half to five and a half with the wise guys coming in on New England. Do you feel like that's the sharp side here.

Simon Hunter (23:22)

Definitely, Definitely though. Definitely. Because I couldn't believe this number. I, I, my model has this at 4, but I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna get sucked in on this one because it is. Do we want to back. The Panthers out there just won 30 nothing against the variable team that once again is very desperate in a corner and like you said, had the worst turnover luck ever the prior week. I mean, two red zone end zone turnovers, just absolute killers. But that's what it's going to be like with a young quarterback and Drake May and running backs that just have fumbling issues. And you know, the, the brutal part for the Patriots right now is the kid they took, Henderson, who has insane amount of talent. They can't get him on the field because he can't pass block right. And that's always the scariest part of these teams, taking these kids out of college because some of these kids are so good. They never had to pass block right. If they were on the field, they were getting the ball and if a guy was blitzing, they would just flank him out of the backfield. They never had to hit the guy up the middle. So it's a little nerve wracking. Like I, I honestly wanted to be on the Panthers. Soon as I saw this line again, I didn't bet it, I was like, that's a Panthers line. We got to be on the Panthers. Like Chad said, it's moved up from four, four and a half to five and a half in a couple books. Yeah, Hard rock looking at right now, it's up to five and a half, so it gets a six. I don't know, maybe I won't be patient enough. I have to take this Panthers team. But I can tell you the professional side is the Patriots. This is a Patriots line, Patriots number. But I just, I can't get over the fact that Panthers are undervalued. But yeah, it's, it's interesting this number is this big because I, I don't know about you, I view these teams as the same. I think they're both, you know, bottom tier teams that any week can be good if they get the right QB play, but overall they're just not trustworthy.

Chad Millman (25:07)

Yeah, I'm kind of surprised this line didn't open closer to three or three and a half, to be honest. In it opened really big, which was surprising to me. And that's why the move was surprising to me that it went so heavy in the Patriots direction and I don't know if it's people looking at this game as the Panthers were basically handed a game and won and didn't really have to do anything outside of themselves to win it, all they had to do was not screw it up and the Patriots flip side handed the game away. You just mentioned it. They had a Drake May interception in the end zone when they were driving for a touchdown. They had a Ramon Dre Stevenson fumble as he was about to cross the goal line. Five overall turnovers. They didn't recover any of their fumbles. That in itself is sort of crazy. Crazy, right? Like you can force fumbles and that is a skill, but recovery of the fumbles is entirely luck. They had two other turnovers that were in Steelers territory including a Drake May fumble when they were driving which led to the Steelers game winning score. So I can see why the number moved a little bit because betters have to believe that the Pats will just be less unlucky and the Panthers won't be as lucky. But awfully high for a quarterback in Drake May who we have refused to bet on because we just don't believe he can execute for a full 60 minutes.

Simon Hunter (26:38)

Yeah, there's a lot of fishy lines this week. This was one of them.

Chad Millman (26:41)

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Chad Millman (28:48)

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a three point dog. This one may be at three at Hard Rock, but it is three and a half in a lot of places and moving in the Eagles direction. And this one I want to ask you specifically about because you highlighted this on Sunday night, before we even started talking about games. You were saying it was the week to fade the Eagles. I bet the Bucks A plus three. Why? Why is this line moving? Is it the Eagles O line like or the Bucs O line? Why is it going in the opposite direction?

Simon Hunter (29:18)

Yeah, I think it's injuries. And this is a jersey. Hard Rock is three and a half now in Tampa. So probably when you're hearing this is gonna be three and a half, I probably should do it. I'll make it. Simon says give me Tampa three and a half.

Chad Millman (29:29)

Wow.

Simon Hunter (29:30)

Call me Simon.

Chad Millman (29:32)

What do you want?

Simon Hunter (29:33)

I want to play a game.

Chad Millman (29:35)

What kind of game?

Simon Hunter (29:37)

Simon says, this really is to me, just based on injuries. We talk about the Bucs. They've been lucky. They could easily be 03. They're 3 0, and the bookmakers know it's. It's only been going for so long. On the flip side, this Eagles team, I think they've been very lucky. They could easily be 0 and 3. So I have a very skewed view on this. Tampa has always played the Eagles well. Just as an Eagles fan, it feels like every time we go down there, we lose. I have to look up because I don't know if that's true, but it feels like for some reason every year we play them because every year we either win our division or we're just scheduled against them and we go down to Tampa, it's 110 degrees and we just get smoked. I mean, last year I can remember vividly we got embarrassed and they helped us though, changed our entire offense because of them. And this Tampa team has major injury store offensive line. They have injuries to their secondary. It Might be without Mike Evans. That's why this number is going to keep moving. Like, there's a couple games this week that a lot of lines have moved because of injuries. So I'm gonna grab the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and hit this back down to three, which were. I think, even with all the injuries, I think that's where it should be because the Eagles have their own injuries as well. They might be down. They're already terrible. Number two and number three cornerbacks against an offense with Baker that, okay, you take out Mike Evans, there's gonna be no Godwin. We saw him last year without Mike Evans and Godwin and just no names and he won the division. He pushed it downfield. Like, there's just a bunch of ways this team in the Bucks can attack you. And the Eagles right now, as great as they looked last week, we talked about it, there's so many things that went their way. As unlucky as they were in the first half, was very lucky in the second half. So championship pedigree. All respect the Eagles team. I. I do think they'll win this game somehow at the end. That's just what Hertz does. But now that we have the hook. Three and a half. I mean, this is another one on Sunday. Gonna be very, very tempted to put this in our contest. Just, it's going to be all Eagles money, all the teasers, all the parlays. The. The public is going to be all over this Eagles team because I don't know about you, Chad, and I'm not the biggest social media person. It felt like every sucker in the world was complaining about their Rams bet that loss last week and how was the worst beat of their lifetime. And it's like they don't get it. They're just a cog in the machine. They probably have this every other week. Worst bet of their lives. Worst bit of the year. So no one like we're going to talk about the Rams get coming up. No one's going to be on them, but everyone that lost this Eagles team is going to be on them. And they know the injury report of this Bucks team. So this is for sharp and square. The square side can be the Eagles, and very, very sharp side is going to be this Tampa team. But respect to the professionals, they've been taking the two and a half that was out there on this Eagles team. They took it right away. Some of them are even taking the three. So, yeah, three and a half, I feel like is a really good Number for us to be taking on the spot.

Chad Millman (32:24)

Yeah, I actually like it at three and a half and there are reports that Tristan Wurfs, their left tackle, could be back. There are reports, by the way, that Chris Godwin could be back.

Simon Hunter (32:33)

I know. That's why I'm grabbing now because like you just said, it could move.

Chad Millman (32:37)

Totally could move. And by the way, thank God you're not spending too much time on social media. I feel like when I was at ESPN so much of my job had to be policing talent who would get angry at people who said things to them on social media and and then have to tell them why they can't do that. I feel like I would spend all my time telling you why you can't do that on social media.

Simon Hunter (33:06)

Well now you can't see people's like so anytime a hater says anything to me I do see I give it a like because I just think it's all kind of funny where it's like, you know, again before the games are over people tell you how stupid your picks are and then they win and they just either delete a comment or they block you and it's like okay Guy Washington, Atlanta.

Chad Millman (33:25)

So on Sunday night this was the first bet I made. I took the Falcons plus three. Simon, if we're talking sharp or square, this was a sharp move because it's down to two and a half. I don't know if I like it as much at two and a half.

Simon Hunter (33:39)

No, I would say if you had confident three still be confident two and a half but I told you I don't. I don't know where to go with this one. I needed more time to watch appendix film Terrible wish I didn't watch it. I feel like if I didn't watch it I would be all over the summer but my view was I didn't want to make a move on it because I need to know what what the the health is with Jane Daniels. And to me your early read was right right at the the Washington blowout now on the road against an Atlanta team that say what you want about Penix, he's actually played well at home and again extremely small sample size but I just even when we talked something I was like there's no way I'm going to end up having this one be one of our fives unless Atlanta got up to five or six in our contest where Daniels got it got cleared and just people extremely overvalued Washington. This feels like a Daniels is going to play number right?

Chad Millman (34:35)

Yeah. And most of the reports are that he will and Ian Rapaport, you know even even said that it was likely on Sunday that he would play the following week. So I don't think anything here is changing. I think it's going to end up being at two and a half. You're right about Penix. Like there was zero to like about that game against the Panthers. Like they couldn't convert on short fields following Panther fumbles. They missed multiple field goals. Here's what I don't get. Guess who got fired this week.

Simon Hunter (35:11)

Yeah, it was weird right? Their wide receiver coordinator.

Chad Millman (35:13)

They fired Ike Hillier, their wide receivers coach.

Simon Hunter (35:16)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (35:16)

Is that like Michael Penix doesn't have any touchdown passes to wide receivers. He's got one Robinson.

Simon Hunter (35:22)

They're blaming that guy.

Chad Millman (35:24)

But I kill your when Michael Penix is off of his worst game in a short sample size as a pro and I Killiard is the guy who's the scapegoat and you give the wide receiver responsibility to the quarterback's coach who had been the wide receivers coach before. Like what's that about? That feels like, that feels like sort of corporate scapegoating to me.

Simon Hunter (35:51)

Okay. So because I, I didn't even when I first saw that initial report I just thought again always negative in my mindset of okay he either broke some type of law or something went on behind the scenes that we don't know about because like Chad just said you don't see the wide receiver coach get fired in week three. It's that's a really random guy to blame. I'm with you on that. That that is one of the weird.

Chad Millman (36:11)

Firing so that even though I'm on the Falcons at three and it's because of the number.

Simon Hunter (36:15)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (36:16)

The reason I don't like it because that just feels like scapegoating excuse making inside an organization where they're flailing, you know they brought in Kirk Cousins, the coach is frustrated. Something about that just, it doesn't feel right to me. You know then again the reason I bet the Falcons at plus three yesterday, I'm doing my research and and I saw this in the Arizona Republic from a game a write up from yesterday and it was clear the Arizona Republic was just trying to win some SEO battle so they could be ranked first. When you type in like give me analysis of the Commanders Falcons this was the write up and this is why I bet at plus three on Sunday night. It's logic like this will Jaden Daniels play for the Commanders in this game? Will it even matter? Marcus Mariota Proved to be more than a capable backup in Washington's NFL Week 3 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. And the Falcons couldn't even score against the Panthers. That is the look of someone who read the box score, saw the final score, wrote something as quick as they could and. And has no idea what they're talking about. That's why you bet the Falcons plus three.

Simon Hunter (37:28)

There you go.

Chad Millman (37:29)

That's it. I know you love trends. I did look on killer sports. NFL teams off a loss of 28 or more. Falcons got blown out against a team who won by 17 or more. Basically a blowout. 58% against the spread since 1989.

Simon Hunter (37:47)

Yeah, that makes sense. That's an old man spot.

Chad Millman (37:50)

I got. I got one more for you after. Later in the show. Cleveland at Detroit. Detroit is now an 8 1/2 point favorite. Strange game because this was at 10 on Sunday, on Saturday morning before the Browns game and the Packers. Then it got down to seven after the Browns won. Move back up to nine last night after the Lions win, now down to eight and a half. I got thoughts. I want them to be the same thoughts you have. So tell me what yours are.

Simon Hunter (38:22)

I. I've. I was praying even though we were on the lines, I was praying if the Lions did lose, they would get rolled because this was going to be the most amazing line spot because it's. It's indoors on a track. And that's. That's all you need to know about this Lions offense. There's ways to attack that D line of that Lions team. When you get in this exact scenario where outdoors at home we have. We've seen the sample now like two games of them outdoors at home. You cannot mess with this Browns defense. It's just a totally different team. And I can't wait to see the splits at the end of the year if this is truly going to be our. Our way with the scene that we fade them on the road, we back him at home because you know, I 10 like Chad said on Saturday, I did make a bet. The look ahead on the Browns very small obviously. But I was like thinking that, you know, this will come down like we said, seven and a half. That makes more sense. So if you want to take the Browns eight and a half, I get it. I got this right at nine and a half. So I do have it as a Lion's line. But I just think situationally matchup wise, this is very, very favorite toward this Lions offense and the Browns. Offensively I just don't think and keep up. But the Fear for me will always just be. We're back in alliance team that just had a historical night. I think it was like some. Some insane stat. It was the first time that the Ravens had given up a 90 yard drive at home in like 10 years. The Lions did it twice. So you saw the best possible game the Lions could play in prime time. And like Chad just said, this number has come down. Like there's still professional smart money coming on the Cleveland side. So another line I'll be patient with. I can't see it getting that much higher. And we're already in the dead zone here. Like eight and a half is the key number. If it gets to nine and a half, I don't care. That's no different than me betting the. The lines at eight and a half. So I'll be patient. Like the lines here. Like their offense, just the lines. Show me what I need to see last night. That they can still run the ball and that that offensive weapons between laporta, Amon, Rod Williams, it's just. It's just so deadly when it's all clicking for that Lions team. So yeah, it's. I'm not gonna let the big spread scare me off. I'll go a little truck here, take this lion side. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.

Chad Millman (40:45)

I'm so glad you said that. So glad you said that. There's a little bit of clarity after three weeks, right? More than you have after two weeks. And what we had last night was an example of the Raven. The. The Ravens defense is troubled and we're going to talk about that. But the Browns offense was so bad and so ineffective, it could not move the ball against this Ravens defense that has now been pretty much blown up by the Lions and by the Bills.

Simon Hunter (41:19)

That's fair.

Chad Millman (41:20)

So to me, I'm looking at this and thinking the Lions defense and their pass rush was pretty good last night and they were pretty effective against Lamar. You're getting a much better team that loves to run up the score and go full throttle at home. And they're feeling themselves right now and they're coming home against a team where they know they can sort of assert dominance. And they're now 2 and 1 and they got the packers at 2 and 1 and this thing's wide freaking open.

Simon Hunter (41:59)

This is a tiebreaker game now, which is even crazy to think if they win this, that can be helped with tiebreaker at the end of the season over Green Bay, which is just bizarre world.

Chad Millman (42:07)

So I love the Lions here. Oh, gosh. Oh, gosh.

Simon Hunter (42:15)

I was gonna say the poor Browns. Like, I know we talk about how bad the Giants had to start the year. The fact that the Browns have had to go, you know, a Bengals team with Joe Burrow, then Green Bay, and then, you know, the Ravens. Now the lines. It's just the schedule makers, man, it's just. I feel bad for some of these teams. They just. They started the year, they're just like, nope, you're going to be owing 41 and 3 no matter what.

Chad Millman (42:34)

The question is, do I wait for the Lions to get to 8? Because it could get there.

Simon Hunter (42:39)

Like, that's what I said. I said, be patient. Like, there. I. I just. I don't see it getting back to 10. I. No, I know some really smart professionals who are on this Brown side, and it's really about what we talked about last week. It's just their D line is going to be an insane problem for all these different teams that have a little bit of questions at, you know, guard positions, which this is. You know, there's some questions about the Lions interior line. I know we didn't look at last week, but, you know, they've improved three straight weeks. That's where we're banking on this Lions interior line. They keep. They've gotten better. They're getting more in rhythm here. And, you know, tons of respect. Mason Graham, Miles Garrett, that front four. We know the deal with this Brownstein, but I love that we're on the same page here. It's indoor. It's going to be a track meet. It's going to be tons of points, and Joe Flacco cannot keep up with that.

Chad Millman (43:24)

Can't. My worry is that they bring in Dylan Gabriel, and that changes the scope a little bit, and he gets garbage time points and whatever. I'm going to. I'm going to walk away and try to temper some of my enthusiasm and. And not go all in on a team that just had a massive win on Monday night. Um, I think the number's a little bit skewed. I think that it should be closer to 10, to be honest. Uh, so. I still like the Lions, but I want to wait until I can get a better number. Patience. Patience. Right?

Simon Hunter (43:51)

Look at us with all of our favorites. We like.

Chad Millman (43:53)

Yeah, I know. That's. That's. What's. That's honestly why I couldn't make a. A sort of choice yet, because I keep looking at this, and I like the Chargers.

Simon Hunter (44:06)

Yeah, I love them this week.

Chad Millman (44:08)

I love. I like the Lions. Like, let's talk about Tennessee, Houston Houston is a seven point favorite. Here's how I think we've grown. You ready? Two years ago I know you like when I go deep. Two years ago I think we automatically would have bet the Titans as division home dogs against the Colts this past weekend. But we didn't. Right. Last year we would have passed on the game entirely instead of fading the Titans when they were playing like trash. This year we did the right thing. We faded the Titans and we bet on the Colts. The Titans are now 3:17 against the spread with Brian Callahan as their coach the last season plus three games this past weekend. They couldn't even get a field goal off at the end of the first half because they were too disorganized for the operation. This took a penalty. It got get it got moved back. They missed the field goal. The offensive line, which we hoped would have been a strength is just atrocious against pressure, which is something that Texans do well. CJ Stroud is seeing ghosts here in footsteps. Their success rate is amongst the worst in the NFL. I think only the Titans are worse. But what's more frightening for me about the Texans offense is that they're not terrible against pressure and that's. And yet CJ is still feeling the footsteps. So I don't know what to do here. Tell me what's sharp. Tell me what square because I'm kind of at a loss.

Simon Hunter (45:42)

Yeah, I'm happy to pass on this one. I would say the Sharp side probably will be Tennessee. Like you said, they're going to be undervalued here and their biggest weakness looks like it's against the run. Houston can't run the ball. So that right there it's like okay, at least there's something you can bank on with this Tennessee team. That their biggest weakness maybe won't be exposed in this matchup. And it's just an insane number like the fact that this 03 Houston team is minus 7 at home against Tennessee. I can't believe the Tennessee is viewed that poorly by the bookmakers. Like I have this line 4 1/2 so I'm way off of it. I. I like the Tennessee side which I just said. I just even last week I get it, it was a Tennessee spot quote unquote. But I just couldn't get there with the coaching staff and all their weaknesses. And it's the same thing here where the number makes sense. They are insanely undervalued against a bad Houston's team that's being overvalued, propped up. It feels like same because of what they did last year. Right. Like, and even this year their defense has been good, but overall, man, it's that offense, and that's a huge number for a struggling offense to cover. And we know the deal with CJ like, you know, there's Stroud has got issues right now, so.

Chad Millman (46:56)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (46:56)

Yeah. I just can't be confident back in this side, even though I'm really tempted to because this just feels like the books are telling themselves, making this such a big number that this is a Houston game in a Houston spot. But I'll just avoid this one like the plague. Hopefully I won't even bet on it in that because if I bet it, I'm gonna have to put it on one of my TVs and I just. I don't have to watch this game. I. I've. I experienced Houston last week, and that was enough for me. So, yeah, I'm happy we can pass.

Chad Millman (47:20)

On this one corner TV game. The meme that's going around this past week is where CJ Stroud was talking to Caleb Williams last year and saying, keep your head up, you know, stop making these mistakes or you're going to do great. Like all this parental advice. And then someone has thrown a stat box up of how C.J. has done since that game versus Caleb. And Caleb is just better in every metric.

Simon Hunter (47:48)

Well, except the major ones, which is.

Chad Millman (47:50)

Winners division, which is winning, winning his division and winning in the playoffs.

Simon Hunter (47:52)

Yeah, yeah.

Chad Millman (47:54)

You and your.

Simon Hunter (47:56)

I know the things that matter. Who cares?

Chad Millman (47:58)

You and you're winning.

Simon Hunter (47:59)

Yeah. Playoff games. I need stats. I need. I need touchdowns.

Chad Millman (48:04)

I need superficial numbers. Okay. New Orleans at Buffalo. Oh, God, dude, hear me out, okay? We've talked about liking favorites. You flagged this on Sunday night when it was at 15 and a half and said your ratings would likely have it at 16.

Simon Hunter (48:21)

17. Yeah.

Chad Millman (48:22)

Now. Well, now it's at 16 and a half.

Simon Hunter (48:25)

The initial reads right, though. Like, I thought my model would have this at 17. 17 and a half. It does. It has it. 17 and a half. So I'll. I'll still take this bullseye, but this is just another game where Chad knows me. Like, I'll just be a coward. I'll probably have a ton of either alternated lines. Like I'll break this down to six and a half or five and a half or Bill's money line. Bet it that way. But this will most likely be our survivor pick. Like, I. I love weeks like this that we can just take off. Pick the obvious one. There's just no world. There is no world with the rat. Spencer's. Spencer Rattler beats Josh Allen in this spot at home. Because as you know, much as you want to think, well, they have so many injuries to their defense, right? The Bills, they are susceptible to offensive like right now. Like, they're, they're injuries to their defense. We've seen it exploited basically in every game they've played this season. I mean, I guess the jets, it wasn't. But you, you've seen that Josh Allen has to be Superman. So big spread like this with a bad defense, I get why guys might be on the same side. I just, I can't get there. I like, after last week, me and Chad talk about it when you don't have a coach, which I, I don't think Kellen Moore is a head coach. You don't have a quarterback. You're so far behind now in the new NFL where it's like these teams that go for it on their own 30, on their own 20, you'll never. They're never gonna be in that position, the Saints. And if they are in that position, it's because they're already down by 14. Like, they're just, it's just all so bad. And I know that we knew coming to the season they were gonna, they were trying to tank for that first pick, but they fooled me a little bit on their first two home games where it's like, oh, I saw some fight, I saw a little heart. That Seahawks game was a total of their way. They quit immediately after getting down by a couple points. So you got a well rested Bills team. Hopefully gets healthy on defense. Huge spread. I'm on the bill side. Even my pick pulls. I've taken the Bills because like you said, a lot of my pickpools locked in at 15 and a half. 16. As long as yours is below 17, I think it's a good number. A huge favorite against a really bad team. And we've seen the new NFL that's. It's a huge gap between these really good teams and these really bad teams. So nothing. Nothing here to wrap my head around for back in the Saints other than the Bills have an injured defense and it's a big spread. I just, I wonder who's betting this the same side other than your one buddy who just loves betting big dogs and the professionals that are just like, this is. This IS model at 14 and a half. It's 16 and a half. I'll take that number.

Chad Millman (50:49)

I don't know who's modeling that like that anymore. If you're not if you are. Then you're not paying attention to the past couple years.

Simon Hunter (50:56)

I'm not gonna judge. Everyone's got their own models. Some. Some work some, like Chad was saying here that some are just absolutely dog shit.

Chad Millman (51:02)

Well, I'm a judger. That's what I do. I like the Bills. I'm probably gonna bet the bills at 16 and a half.

Simon Hunter (51:08)

I'm with you.

Chad Millman (51:09)

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Simon Hunter (53:04)

Rams are.

Chad Millman (53:05)

Rams are three and a half. Let's get some context. Okay, the look ahead line on this was six and a half back in May. The Rams, six and a half point favorites. Right?

Simon Hunter (53:17)

In May.

Chad Millman (53:17)

In May.

Simon Hunter (53:18)

Okay, okay, okay.

Chad Millman (53:19)

In May.

Simon Hunter (53:19)

Okay.

Chad Millman (53:20)

On Sunday night, on Sunday night it was four and a half. You talked about a Sunday night. You said you're going to take the Colts. And at plus four and a half, it was the sharp move. You know, it's moved down to three and a half shortly after we got off the air on Sunday Night Live. Show moves lines that's not surprising because the Colts were dominant again on Sunday. But the Titans team is clearly pretty bad. What I'm trying to figure out is what is the edge for the Rams, right? The Colts have gotten given up just two sacks all season while being blitzed more than any team in the league. The blitz rate against the Colts is higher than any other team. The Rams edge has been their pressure and their pressure rate and their pass rush. So my question becomes, are we playing with fire like we are three weeks in? How much of your ratings on the Colts moved to give you confidence betting the Colts in this game?

Simon Hunter (54:14)

I mean, it's moved a lot. I got very lucky though, that I was. I mean, people can go back or I guess you can, but I, I said that if the Colts had made the movie the Dino Jones, I was gonna be much higher on that team. And I never saw it being what it's become, where it's like he's. He's doing something Manny didn't do. Peyton Manning had the most juggernaut insane offenses. Like, I look back to my childhood of like this pain Manning years, my teenage years, it was like he was the goat. He was the greatest. Even though Daniel Jones has done better and broken all his numbers earlier. And it's like that's, that's the Shane Steke envision. That's what he's just been pounding the table that if he just had the right guy, that they had the pieces there to make it all work. So Colts couldn't be higher the vibes right now. And that's what I bet. That opening line, I couldn't believe it was four and a half and I just knew there's no chance it would go up. But I am firmly on the Rams side here.

Chad Millman (55:08)

You are.

Simon Hunter (55:08)

Yeah. And this was almost as Simon says, but I think we can be patient and we might get the three like we did with the Eagles, which again, didn't matter. But that's my job. I'm just trying to get you people the best number I possibly can here. And this to me looks like a number that could keep coming down because I think a lot of what you said is true, that the general public and professionals alike will be on that cold side with that number because through three weeks they have looked like the better side and they look like a pretty even team. I know it sounds crazy to say, but, like, they're not that different than this Rams team when it all is said and done, biggest weakness to me is this Colts secondary can be attacked. You saw Bo Nix miss big throws again against this Colts team. They had to settle for field goals that Stafford usually doesn't miss. And that Eagles game, like I said, every little thing went wrong. And McVay we played like a coward. He really did. Where like in that second half he took the field goals.

Chad Millman (56:09)

Yeah, he was super conservative.

Simon Hunter (56:11)

Yeah, like he just, he just went so safe conservative against the team that if you give them a little bit of life, they they took it from. So I see this as being a spot that even if they get up, they'll keep landing on this Rams team. And I look at this matchup wise, I think it does come down honestly to Jonathan Taylor as much as I, I do give respect to Daniel Jones. If they can get their running game going, they can do stuff off play action. That's where you've seen Daniel Jones really excel because he's getting outside the pocket and he either has a deep down the field read and Warren or Pittman in the middle of the field or he, he picks up that 57 yards on that first down of his legs. And that's been so huge for that Colts team where it's like it's what Anthony Richardson couldn't do. He always just took the run or he couldn't make that mid level throw. Daniel Jones has been doing both perfectly. So I get the love. The vibes are super high for this cold steam. But like the Rams were fade last week. This is such a Rams spot and a Rams number. Of course no one's taking the Rams minus three and a half right now. Right. They're just, they're all going to be taking the Colts numbers so I'm going to be patient here. Love the Rams when we were ever serious discussion Sunday maybe will make us force this one in because they're probably one of my favorite favorite bets this week, this Rams side and I just love their matchup matchup offensively and like you said defensively there are ways that the Daniel Jones can exploit them. But you're banking on Daniel Jones to play very well for four straight weeks. That is in the NFL only the very top level guys can stay consistent week in week out. So like you said, it's scary. We're standing, we're stepping in front of obviously the hottest team. Well one of the hottest teams on football. But I'm going to trust the numbers here, trust that they're overvalued and trust that this is a same Colts team that, you know, should have lost to Denver. That's. That's fair to say. And they're a team that's kind of being overvalued because they beat up on a really bad Miami team, beat up a really bad Tennessee team. Played well against a pretty good Denver team where the Rams, they showed last week. They're a legit good team against like they showed against the Eagles team. And I think we're getting a nice buy low spot here on this Rams team.

Chad Millman (58:17)

Yeah, in everything you just said. To sum it up, it sounds like we're betting the spot. We're not betting anything about the matchup. We're not betting anything about the teams. We're not even thinking about any advantages the Rams may have. Maybe a little bit against the Colts secondary. But I agree with you. I didn't want to bet the Colts at all. Even at four and a half. I've just been trying to figure out how to get to the Rams because I love them in this spot. Totally love them.

Simon Hunter (58:49)

And if you join me in the four and a half of the Colts, be patient. Then wait for the three because that's a real middle. Like that's, that's a nice little middle of the books you're giving me. And they usually don't move it that much because they hate giving up middles. But I, I'm checking right now and it's all the money it's on, it's all in the Colts. So like I said, professionals, Joe Public, they're all coming in and across the board. Every book right now is three and a half on this number. So just be patient. I think one one will pop for us. We'll be able to get that three on this Ram side.

Chad Millman (59:21)

I'm gonna wait. I'm with you. I'll end up betting the three and a half. I. I entered never last week either. I never got the Eagles three in Connecticut. I couldn't get it, so I had to bet the three and a half. I bet it on Sunday morning. I was walking my dog and I started to see the juice move in the direction that was going to move the number back to four. I'm like, oh, Jesus Christ, I'm just going to bet it right now. And I was miserable for about 59 minutes. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco 49ers minus 33 minus 120 at Hard Rock bat. Listen, the news out of San Francisco is that Nick Bosa is out for the year with a torn acl. Here's the question you have to ask, has any team had more high profile injuries to more key players over the past five, six, seven years than the.

Simon Hunter (60:16)

Niners now They have the worst injury luck and it's not close. It's insane. This year was supposed to be the year they were healthy because they had such bad injury luck last year.

Chad Millman (60:24)

But at some point, don't we have to sort of ask the question like is there something going on with the trainer, the how they, how they treat their players? Not that I want to be defamatory, but isn't it.

Simon Hunter (60:38)

I've heard that for years. I've honestly heard that for years.

Chad Millman (60:40)

You have?

Simon Hunter (60:41)

Yeah. About the 49ers and. Yeah, I just, I, I'm with you. Like it's interesting. They have all these soft tissue, soft tissue injuries. The Bosa one obviously is just bad luck. But yeah, this, this game, another game where I just couldn't believe this opening line. To me it's a Purdy line because.

Chad Millman (61:01)

It got up to four and a half after the game.

Simon Hunter (61:04)

Oh, okay.

Chad Millman (61:05)

It got up to four and a half on, on after the games on Sunday and then the buyback started happening.

Simon Hunter (61:12)

Maybe it's not then. Maybe it is a Mac Jones line. But I, I have this. If it's Purdy, I have some minus six and I know there's a ton of injuries to this 49ers team. Salah is like, he might be the best defensive coach of football. I know Flores is unreal and Fangs is incredible for the Eagles, but like I, I can't get over the schemes and the stuff he's doing with the talent they have on this four nights team which I talked about coming the year. They're a very young defense and he high like whatever guys are good at, he just highlights it so well and they bring in these free agents and Salah just made them be so much better than they were where they previously came from. So I just. This is totally like a Purdy bet, but it's also just a solid bet. This defense against this Jaguars offense that just feels constipated and just not right. And I, I just do not like this spot at all for this Jags team where I thought this was going to be a way more public side. We'll see as the week goes along here. But every pro I've talked to is just like me. They're on this 49ers team. So this could be another sharp first square where the public is very square on this, this Jaguar side. Taking a public dog here and this 49ers team got away with one last week, but I look at this matchup that's very favorable to them. And McAffrey, I saw some crazy stat where he's like leading the league in touches and he could break if he keeps at this pace or break the NFL record for touches, but that's what they should be doing. When you watch, he is such a difference maker to that offense and everything should run through him. Just wear him out like you got him. We've seen him. McCaffrey, when he's healthy, he is the guy. So, like, you can't predict injuries and they, to me, should just keep doing what they're doing, run their offense through McCaffrey. And this is a great matchup for McCaffrey as well. So this Jaguars team, they're 2 in 1, but they don't feel 2 in 1. They feel very fortunate to be 2 in 1. Easy to be 3, 0 as well, though, another team like that. But I, I think that's why it makes total sense. I had a couple people ask about this one because, like, why are the Jags a dog kick, especially against Mac Jones? But I, I think, I think there's a pretty line, like, again, I can't believe it came down for four and a half. But I, I, if this is Mac Jones, I'd probably make it closer to a pick or maybe minus 149ers. But with Mac Jones, like I said, I mean, with Purdy, like I said, I'd have this closer to 6. So I think if it is Purdy, he gets cleared. He's moving well in practice. Like, I'm gonna be checking all the B writers feed, seeing how he's moving, watching film women practice this week. If he does practice, I need to see him pushing off that toe and moving on that foot. And you know, I, I talk to ex football players all the time. These type of injuries, they say it doesn't matter because you're literally getting shot up on Sunday anyway. Or he won't even feel it anyway. But I like to see him sober in practice, pushing off the. I just want to see the pain threshold and how he can, how he's maneuvering because we talk all the time. Purdy's legs is a big weapon for him.

Chad Millman (64:02)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (64:02)

Really mobile and great in the pocket that way. So, yeah, I know it's crazy. We keep giving out favorites here, but this is another favorite. I like, I like the chalk this week.

Chad Millman (64:10)

You just mentioned Trevor Lawrence. Let me give you some, some context here. How bad you know we don't. We're not Trevor Lawrence fans.

Simon Hunter (64:17)

No.

Chad Millman (64:17)

Full stop. We're so off the train. And that team feels like it's on a knife's edge of just descending into chaos and frustration with a lot of young talent that hasn't had success and and is going to get really frustrated with yet another new coach who can't seem to. And this is not a Liam Cohn thing. This is just a nature of the situation they're in because of the talent they have. The Jags EPA per pass, expected points added per pass is 23rd in the league. That. That's not very good. That's a reflection of the quarterback. This is while their sack rate sack rate allowed second lowest in the league pressure rate allowed lowest in the league blitz rate meaning how often Trevor Lawrence is being blitzed fifth lowest in the league with no pressure.

Simon Hunter (65:11)

They played Chad. Let's see who they played real quick. They played Carolina, Cincinnati and Houston and that's Chad giving out those numbers with no pressure.

Chad Millman (65:20)

Trevor Lawrence cannot be effective in the passing game. What is he going to do against Robert Sala, who like Simon just said and who by the way, during the off season we kept saying he might be the most important addition to a coaching staff other than Ben Johnson. I'm dying to bet the Niners at minus three.

Simon Hunter (65:41)

Yeah, yeah, it's a good number.

Chad Millman (65:43)

We're all over the favorites here. Baltimore or Kansas City? Kansas City's plus two and a half Hard rock bet. We're being tempted.

Simon Hunter (65:51)

Oh my God.

Chad Millman (65:52)

We are being tempted here. Simon. Context again. The Lions moved from touchdown to eight and a half after Monday Night Football. The Ravens stay put at two and a half. Anyone who has done any betting during the Mahomes era knows his record as a dog. His record is a short favorite. And anyone who has done any betting during the past two years has watched since the super bowl. Including the Super Bowl. This offense is struggling to find a playmaker. Is it Tyquan Thornton? Do we think the Ravens can game plan against him? Are the Chiefs closer to the Browns who were ineffective? Are they closer to the Lions and the Bills who couldn't be stopped? Like the Giants game was a struggle for this Chiefs team. They like they needed every mistake the Giants made in order to to to lock in a cover against that team. The homes had to be otherworldly. What do we do here Simon? What do we do? What is sharp? What is square?

Simon Hunter (67:05)

You know what the. This is the squarest line of the week. Ravens two and a half. The bookmakers are they our friends job. They're our best friends, apparently, because this looks like free money. I cannot believe this line is still holding at two and a half. So I personally, I can't bet the Raven side. I just cannot do it and come on the show and say that I'm a professional. Better. It is so chalky, so trappy. Stinks the high heavens. I. I cannot believe this line is at three and a half. At least three. Just every book is sitting on two and a half and getting pounded. I was a sucker Sunday night as soon as I saw this number just in case the Ravens were going to win. I took the two and a half and it's like, there's no way even the Ravens lose. There's no way there's still two and a half. And here we are at two and a half still. So in the playoffs, I would be putting my life savings on the Chiefs here. A home dog in the playoffs of this number against Lamar team a little more in the regular season. This is technically a good spot, a good number. I can't believe it. I cannot believe this. This number is insane because the books are telling you the Ravens are losing this game. Like they're. They're not even saying they're going to cover. They're. They're like, this is a crazy, crazy number to hang by the sports book. So I. I have to be on the Chiefs. There's no doubt I'll be on the Chiefs. I'm going to be patient, just hope it gets better. But just a bizarre number. And we talked Mahomes. Yes, he's been incredible. His career as a dog or, you know, under three points. But I brought it up with that Eagles matchup in this exact scenario, that the only time there had been a dog at home was against the Bills. And I believe he had lost 24 to 20 in that matchup. And the Bills had covered. And we just saw against the Eagles. Eagles were a favorite. I think it was either one and a half or two. It closed out the Chiefs as a dog. They lost by three. They almost backdoored it, but they just couldn't get it going. That end zone pick totally killed my home. So this is the exact type of game Mahomes and she and Andy Reid have won the last nine, 10 years. They just pull these teams down to the mud. They bring them on their shitty level and it works. But it's just. I can't believe it. Like, something must be wrong with this Ravens team for this line to be what it is. And something must be wrong with Lamar and I'm just not seeing it and I'm overlooking it and I can't believe it. I cannot believe this is two and a half. It is to be the most shocking of. We talk about stinky, fishy lines this week. This is by far the fishiest line. So if this was late in the year, I would be all over the Ravens. I'm gonna trust the trends, trust the spot. This is very telling by the bookmakers about this line. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna take the Chiefs. But my God, I feel sick to my stomach doing it. But I know it's a long. Another long term winner spot and gotta, gotta trust a model had this at a pick. So I know I'm, I'm, I'm still high. My model's still high on this Chiefs team. It's just. It really is. I mean I could say whatever I want about my homes. I'll specially is. It really is a Spags thing though. Like my model just. I always will give favoritism to the Chiefs and Spags defense as the season goes along. The defense always gets better. So now we're in four weeks. I've seen every week since that week one Chargers game. The defense has improved.

Chad Millman (70:19)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (70:20)

And that's my takeaway from like you can say whatever you want. It's Russell Wilson. I thought they played pretty well defensively against him and that Giants team. So Chad nailed. Our biggest question mark is Mahomes his weapons. Danny, make it work. This Ravens team just looks like they have Mary Jr. Issues on defense they're working through right now. So I again, I can't believe this line. I cannot believe it gonna be the biggest need of the book. There's two games are gonna be huge needs for the books this week. This is one of them. The other ones coming up a little later on the show.

Chad Millman (70:51)

One of these teams is going to be one in three after this weekend.

Simon Hunter (70:54)

And I was that crazy.

Chad Millman (70:56)

It's insane because I got both of these teams in every super bowl matchup bet that I have.

Simon Hunter (71:02)

Yeah, I mean it's again, we're in September, so you got plenty of time. You're going to be all right. But I'm with you. That is crazy.

Chad Millman (71:07)

One of them is going to have to come around at some point. I'm surprised that you went that hard on the Chiefs. I thought when you started talking you were going to say Ravens. I don't really have a strong opinion on this game.

Simon Hunter (71:17)

I know. Do you not take Ravens? That's why I can't believe this.

Chad Millman (71:20)

Like Ravens coming off that loss. Chiefs coming off their win. You know, like, it's like I the Chiefs looked terrible beating the Giants. They like Patrick Mahomes was running for his life against the Giants.

Simon Hunter (71:35)

Not your friend though. Just keep saying it to yourself. They. They're not. They're not here to give you money.

Chad Millman (71:39)

You know who my BFF is?

Simon Hunter (71:41)

True. It is.

Chad Millman (71:42)

You're my bff. You're my friend.

Simon Hunter (71:44)

I am.

Chad Millman (71:46)

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Simon Hunter (73:40)

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Chad Millman (73:45)

Chicago at Las Vegas this one is bouncing all over the place. No matter where you know, no matter where you live. The Raiders were favorites in Some spots, dogs in the others minus one at Hard Rock Bet right now you highlighted this immediately Sunday night when the Raiders are one and a half point dogs. Like it's had a whole journey at one point on Sunday they were favorites. And so it keeps just bouncing back and forth, back and forth. I think a lot of it depends on, you know, the state you live in and the book you're using. But the Bears beating the Cowboys and the. The way the Raiders lost to the commanders is. Is doing some funkiness to this line.

Simon Hunter (74:24)

Yeah. And I just. The Raiders team, I knew coming to the season they're going to have some weaknesses on the offensive line. I didn't know it was going to be this bad. They just. They can't get any sort of running game going. And we've seen Gino is not the best when he's under pressure. So there are some. If you're trying to back the Bears, there are some aspects you can like. Right. They've looked like the better team through three weeks. Their defense is. I know it's a weakness of that Bears team, but at least they have some guys and get pressure. But when I look at the Bears secondary, they got away one against Dallas.

Chad Millman (74:57)

Oh yeah.

Simon Hunter (74:57)

And this matchup is not good for them against this Raiders team indoors on a fast field. And Caleb, we saw what he can be when there's no pressure. Next. Crosby is not anything close to what the Dallas Cowboys on their front four. He's going to get his. There are guys beatable on this Bears front line like their, their line is still working it out, figuring out. Right. They brought in a bunch of free agents and they're just putting all these guys together. It takes a little bit. So once again, like this Bears team, I kept saying I really think they're going to be much better later in the season. That was the perfect game against Dallas and we talked. That was a Bear spot. But between the CD injuries, the turnovers, they kept getting like it all just really went that Bears away.

Chad Millman (75:39)

Cowboys right tackle left the game and is done for a few weeks. Yeah.

Simon Hunter (75:42)

Yeah. So like it just kept. It was just so bad for that Cowboys team and that you'll see the line reflects. The Cowboys have a bunch of injuries. Their numbers moved a ton this week. So that makes sense. But I just think it's, it's. The hate's gone too far in this Vegas team where the Bears might win this game. But this shouldn't be more than them being a dog. Right. Like they, they should be a 1.1 and a half 2 point dog in this game. There's a bunch of books out there that still have them as a one and a half point favorite. So people can easily see where my read here is. I'm just taking the value better number on a team that isn't as bad as they think they are. And Vegas at home in this matchup to me is pretty favorable. Like that was not a brutal spot last week but a little, it was a little bit right them going on the road. Yeah sure we against a backup they just from the get go they were just getting mauled and we've seen early, early in the early in the year here we overrate inflate too much on the small sample size that we have of these these few games. So still have hope for this Raiders team but they easily look like the fourth team in this division and you know that this line here reflects that. If they, if they had shown anything last week, they easily would have been a favorite in this matchup against this Bears team because like I said, most models aren't going to have this Bears team highly rated. Right. As good as Caleb Williams looked, there's still some things to take away from him that he struggled with. So yeah, betting the number. Don't know if I'll force it into our contest. We'll see as the week goes along here. But I, I am on the Raiders side. A plus one and a half but not, not one of my five favorite bets yet this week.

Chad Millman (77:19)

You know we got a lot of questions last week. Why don't we talk more about the Raiders and the Commanders against Marcus Mario and like we just didn't like the game and we talked about it on Tuesday, never went back to it because we just couldn't figure out what did we like about the Commanders. What do we like about the Raiders. It just wasn't a game that was, you know, that we were tracking that was appealing to us. This week a little bit different. You just mentioned Dallas Cowboys. A lot of injuries. Now seven point home underdogs on Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers. Like man, does the NFL know how to do drama. We thought the scriptwriters were crushing it with all those block kicks and then we forgot that they were coming back with next week's episode and bring in Micah Parsons back to Big D. It's brilliant, brilliant programming. I don't like this game. Like Micah's back. CDs out, the right tackle is out. They can't stop anyone on defense. Matt Eber FL continues to be, you know, a Recycled joke. What do we do with this game? I, I honest to God, I don't know what to do with this game.

Simon Hunter (78:29)

I'm taking the seven, but I'm not putting a lot on it because I, I, I think you're early readable. This is, this will just keep growing. This is going to be. Green Bay will be an every teaser, every parlay just like they were last week. The public will not care that they lost. They will come right back on because Dallas has so many injuries and they looked horrible and they were, I think the number two most bet money and ticket almost at every sportsbook. Last week. Everyone was all over Dallas last week. Now they are totally off of them because of all these injuries. And Green Bay's defense through three weeks, they're another team. You're just like, man, that might be a really, really good defense. And I know I don't want to take too much away from week one with the lines, but since then the Lions have looked like a juggernaut and that week one they looked totally lost. And it's three weeks down. Green Bay's defense every week has just looked the part. They look incredible. So for me it's all again playing the number overvalued team in Green Bay, undervalued team in Dallas that people still think this Green Bay team is a top three team in the nfc. I mean they literally had that number one. I think sportsbooks had them as a favorite last week. Win the Super Bowl. It's just overreaction. This is a good Green B team, but they have their own injuries, especially to their offensive line, the wide receiver position. And you know Tucker Craft, how important he is. I thought you saw a little bit of Jordan Love. He was using the other tight ends like it. It didn't really matter that much because the scheme they run there with the floor. But Tuck Craft's a big deal to me. When you already have injuries to your wide receiver position, you're relying on Golden. You're a rookie receiver that couldn't turn it up field right. His body carried him out of balance where he could have easily had a touchdown if he just turned his body a little more carry up field. So it's a lot to put on a Green Bay team that the hype was so high week one and I think it's still there in Dallas. I know they have all these injuries and I know their coach Scheidenheimer seems like might be an idiot, but I can't get over that it's gonna be the Sunday night game. And we might be getting seven and a half on Dak. Like Dak the, he just as a big dog like the Eagles, he just covers in those spots. I don't know how he gets there, there, but he gets there. He always has in his career. So, yeah, could lose it could be a bad one. I don't know if I'm gonna force it into our contest because I don't think they'll give us a seven and a half. But at seven right now as it sits at Hard Rock, I'm taking that number on Dallas. I just, I can't believe how much love the Screen Bay team, which they are very good. They are a much better team than this Dallas team, but a seven point road favorite on Sunday night. I, I can't believe it. In week four. It's like, I don't know, it's just, it's just bizarre how much love and respect Green Bay got so early in the year. Just maybe it's because people love them so much in the preseason, but they just, they're crowning this team so quick that Jordan Love hasn't done anything to earn that. This offense isn't consistent enough to earn that type of respect. So yeah, I, I, I can't believe this number. But the pros are with the public. They've been hammering this side of Green Bay. It was like Chad said, it was five and a half Sunday night. All the injuries, CDs, most likely out like you said. I even know that they had an injury to their right tackle. That's a big deal. So I'll play the number, I'll play the spot. But yeah, not going to be super confident on it. It's just insane the amount of injuries Cowboys have had to start the year.

Chad Millman (81:45)

Yeah, listen, Jordan Love, he, he's no Justin Herbert.

Simon Hunter (81:50)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (81:51)

Boom, boom. Little callback for you. There's New York jets at Miami. There's two Monday Night Football games. This is one of them. The Dolphins are two and a half point favorites. We discussed it on Sunday night. One of our YouTube viewers asked about this Jets. The jets in this game. We kind of both wanted to pass. Like this didn't, didn't compel me in any particular way.

Simon Hunter (82:19)

No. I'll say this though. I know a really respected group that hit that Jet side. Jets did touch three and I can't believe it. Like to me it was either Miami or no better on this matchup. Like we got away with one last week with that Jet side and I know we had seven half a contest. I had a ton of six and a half personally. So it was like yeah, just total miracle Pepper cover and win there. And looking at this matchup, it's really about their secondary. I just can't get over how bad the jets secondary is. Their defense wise and Miami, yeah they've had some injuries offensive line, but overall wide receivers are healthy and you saw against the Bills two can't put it together. When it clicks right, it's all going right. He does make it work. Two against a bad team. Like that's the other part of it too. It beats up on bad teams. So I'll take it. It feels like another sucker number like that Ravens game. But this side I will take it. I don't think it's going to be as heavily public this Miami side but yeah, again another game I don't feel great about. I bet it. It's my job to give out an opinion on it. I guess Miami. But my God and thank God there's two games on Monday night so I don't have to watch either of them.

Chad Millman (83:29)

Well, that's what I was going to say about Cincinnati down.

Simon Hunter (83:31)

I'm gonna watch him but holy shit. Terrible dude.

Chad Millman (83:33)

I fell asleep at halftime of last night's game only because I stayed up way too late watching the Chiefs and the Giants because I wanted to make sure I could send all my karma the Chiefs way so they could cover that five and a half because they were trying to give it away and let the Giants go down the field. Cincinnati, Denver. Denver's a seven point favorite in the second Monday night game. I might not make it to kickoff for this one. I'm going to say it right now. I know you're going to laugh at me. I think the sharp side is taking the seven and Cincinnati, they got blown out there. There's never going to be more value. I think Denver is still being overvalued. The problem is Bo Nix looks great against bad defenses and looks pedestrian against good defenses. So he's playing a pretty bad defense. That means he could light him up. I'm not going to bet this one. Slight, slight lean Cincinnati sharper square.

Simon Hunter (84:31)

I agree. I guess I, I guess this the Bengals would be the sharp cycle. You said. But I, I don't know. I. I'm on Bo Nicks and I'm again, I said I'm on chalk this week. This is another side where you have to get right. Bo Nicks. This is such a get right spot against just overall a terrible, terrible Bengals team. And I, I know we took a lot of heat from Their fans being like, what more do you want? They signed their receivers, they signed their quarterback, they signed their D lineman. You guys are too hard on them. And it's what we talk about, the time. It's like a 10 year old's building the team. It's like a Madden team. They don't, they don't address the weaknesses that their defense out of their offensive line and now your quarterback's out for the season. So I'm not doing it. I think Denver's defense, great match for them against a horrible backup quarterback. And Brownie that, you know, he can make big throws but we see it time and time again he can turn it over. He's just a guy that's loose with the ball and that's, that's where Denver wants to be. They want to be against a guy that's throwing the ball, pushing downfield. And on the flip side with Bo Nix, they don't really have a guy that can spy him like the Chargers really did. There's ways for him to attack with his feet outside the pocket. That's why this number is what it is. They win. They cover that game last week probably seven and a half, eight at this point. I mean I'm looking right now, there's one book at seven and a half so I guess that's where it is heading. So I'll take Denver -7. I can't believe on Denver and Miami Monday night, chalk.

Chad Millman (85:51)

But it's terrible.

Simon Hunter (85:52)

It's. Yeah, it's just terrible. It's just.

Chad Millman (85:54)

Speaking of, speaking of chalk, I've made my Chad loves decision. Are you ready? Chad Loves. The Los Angeles Chargers -6.

Simon Hunter (86:04)

Couldn't get away from it.

Chad Millman (86:12)

I couldn't get away from it because when I. We go through the games like I told you, other than the Falcons who I loved at plus three and now it's a two and a half.

Simon Hunter (86:21)

Yeah.

Chad Millman (86:22)

The only teams I like this week are favorites. All right, Simon, as we are talking about this game, the Chargers game that I love, it's been announced that Russell Wilson is being benched in favor of Jackson Dart. The line is moving. You can't get the six anymore. It's at six and a half. I still love it at six and a half. I might like it even more. Tell me why I'm being so sharp right now.

Simon Hunter (86:43)

Yeah, we both love it and it's, it's really, again, it's going to come back to that defense. It's a great defense. Now going up against a rookie making his first start and me and Chad have seen this before, right?

Chad Millman (86:54)

We've.

Simon Hunter (86:54)

We've been burned by the rookie making us first start because there's no tape on them. All the unknowns. But when you have a defense that makes you bend to their identity like the Chargers defense does, I still feel confident and I think it's a good number. It's still. You're still getting under 7. Still trust the number and yeah, obviously we both would more confident to six. Six and a half's not gonna scare me off. As long as you can shop around, people get under that 7 which is such a key number. I think this is a good spot, good number for this Chargers team. And man Jackson Doer. Talk about a bad time to pick your first start. This is brutal.

Chad Millman (87:25)

Kind of crazy that Brian Dabo would tell the world on Tuesday instead of waiting a little bit longer. So now the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh can prep for that. But that goes kind of in keeping with how incompetent this Giants team has been throughout the Joe Shine Brian Dabal tenure. All right. The Last thing I Want to do Chad loves the Chargers. The last thing I Want to do We've been promising it for a few weeks. Contest winners. You guys have been so kind in helping us relaunch Sharper Square or launch Sharper Square new network with the Voluum who we love. It's hard to relaunch an audio show and get it to exist in the rankings and consistently be in the rankings the way we have been. It's all thanks to you guys and continuing to rate and review. Leave us 5 stars saying whatever you want. We want to reward some people. We have gotten some excellent feedback and some 5 star reviews on Apple podcasts. There will be many winners. Our first batch of winners. T Mike Mac, Jimmy Half Greek, your compadre. I love that one. You're going to email sharpersquaremail.com we're going to get you a prize, but let me read the winning. The winning review from TMike Mac for for some reason I've enjoyed gambling on football for 30 years. Even though I lost money since I started listening to Chad and Simon, I am up around $7,000. You need thick skin though. Best advice Simon gave a while back is that when you're betting a terrible dog you have permission not to watch it. There have been so many games that were so hard to watch but we pulled it out in the end. Thank you for your 5 star review T Mike Mac and everybody else who has done it. Team Mike, you're going to be getting some swag. Jimmy half Greek your compadre. You're all getting some swag. Thank you to everybody who's been listening and leaving the reviews and rating and keep doing it. We're going to keep giving out some more stuff. Let me run down the games that we're going to focus on on Thursday. We'll probably probably talk a little bit about the Cards and hopefully they've gotten to be dogs at that point. Chargers minus six it's move in Simon says charges minus six is Chad loves Simon says is the bucks at plus three and a half. Lions minus eight and a half. We're hoping it gets down to eight. Buffalo minus 16 and a half. What happened to us? Rams minus three is what we're hoping to get. It's a three and a half. Niners minus three. Jesus Simon. Chiefs plus two and a half. Thank God we're getting back to who we are and the Raiders minus one. We're hoping that flips back a lot to talk about on Thursday brother. It's a lot of freaking favorites. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our Survivor pick our head to head battle brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video? Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Subscribe Rate Review Keep Those Apple Podcast 5 star ratings and reviews coming because feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.

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