The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square NFL Week 3 Reaction

Date: September 22, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" is a rollicking, honest, and insightful recap of an extremely unpredictable NFL Week 3, through the lens of two experienced and passionate sports bettors. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the weekend’s most dramatic finishes, wild comebacks, and betting angles, openly sharing their emotions—the highs from miracle covers, the lows from brutal beats, and the lessons learned from every bounce of the football. The hosts move game by game, dissecting what mattered on the field for both the teams and those who bet on them, while sprinkling in advice on staying disciplined through the season’s chaos.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Chaos & Betting Philosophy

• NFL Week 3 described as "chaos" with multiple wild and last-second covers.
• The hosts finished 3-2 with several wins coming through outright miracles—particularly on blocked kicks returned for touchdowns.
• Simon emphasizes not getting "too high or too low until the final whistle," acknowledging the randomness involved each week ([03:58]).
• Betting advice: "Just bet the numbers," i.e., focus on market value, not overreaction to short-term chaos.

Quote:
“It’s like, I never get too high or too low until the final whistle is blown. Football is…a really stupid game played with a weirdly shaped ball and it makes no sense.”
— Simon Hunter [03:58]

2. Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns

• Browns were +8.5 home underdogs.
• Chad recounts the dramatic final 3:45, where the Browns moved from likely non-cover to an outright win through defensive heroics: a run of 13 points, including a pick of Jordan Love and a blocked kick.
• A critical chop block penalty forced the Browns to take a field goal, which ironically protected their cover.
• Simon notes this kind of comeback is "a 5 out of 10,000" probability, underscoring the luck involved ([07:54]).

Quote:
"It was just all negative to Green Bay. Really all positive for the Browns in any way you could think of…That's how it is in football."
— Simon Hunter [07:54]

• Both bemoan the wasted potential of Cleveland's defense given their quarterback situation, calling it a loss for players like Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward ([12:14]).

3. Rams at Eagles

• Both loved the Eagles all week, but the game turned after right tackle Lane Johnson left with injury, stalling the Philly offense until late in the third quarter ([14:08]).
• Jalen Hurts’ leadership and resilience were credited for the comeback; Simon argues his composure is rare among NFL QBs ([14:52]).
• A blocked field goal returned by Jordan Davis sealed a miraculous cover.
• Both admit the win was pure luck: “We cannot in good conscience take credit for that game" ([17:10]).

Quote:
"Herz…has something that just a handful of guys have, which is this absurd confidence when they're down…that he's still the best player on the best team."
— Simon Hunter [14:52]

4. New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• The Jets (+7.5) were a reluctant pick. Game was ugly with Bucs showing early penalty problems, Jets QB Tyrod Taylor throwing a pick-six.
• Another miracle cover came from a blocked field goal returned for a TD in crunch time ([20:26], [21:38]).
• Simon expresses how lucky they felt: "I felt more lucky on this one than I did...on the Eagles" ([22:46]).
• Hosts praise Baker Mayfield’s fire, noting his rapport with rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka and Mayfield’s revenge motivation postgame ([24:05]).

5. Texans at Jaguars — Offensive Dysfunction

• Houston’s offense described as disastrous: C.J. Stroud couldn't move the ball, developed bad habits from constant hits, and receivers struggled with drops and separation ([25:41]).
• Chad: “This team is a train wreck. …they’re not good enough anywhere.”
• Simon still believes in Texans’ potential but sees them as poorly coached with crippling penalties ([25:41]-[28:40]).
• Both criticize Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence appears to be regressing and is not looking like the answer.

Quote:
“He’s just not going to be the guy who turns them into a Super Bowl caliber team.”
— Chad Millman on Trevor Lawrence [29:39]

6. Broncos at Chargers — Coaching & Discipline Disasters

• The Broncos (+2.5) blew a 20-13 late lead, thanks in part to coaching mistakes (not going for it on 4th-and-1), bad penalties, and poor Bo Nix QB play ([29:38], [32:18]).
• Chad rails against the lack of discipline and situational awareness, asserting, "Bad coaching, bad discipline, bad quarterbacking, all of it."
• Points to Chargers' ability to keep drives alive due to Broncos’ penalties as a key reason for the loss, not just bad luck.

7. Other Games & Thoughts

• Panthers vs. Falcons: Falcons dominated stats but turnovers doomed them. Simon notes his ongoing skepticism about Michael Penix Jr’s ability to handle pressure ([38:39]).
• Both regret not betting the Colts harder and note professionals were all over Colts and Panthers as live dogs this week.
• Bears: Big win and cover, Simon calls it a model 0–2 hungry team and credits Caleb Williams for playing within the offense. Chad revels in competent Bears football ([42:32]).

8. Early Leans for Week 4

• Atlanta vs. Washington: Chad already bet Falcons +3, thinking the market will move if QB Jaden Daniels plays ([45:45]).
• Arizona (TNF) vs. Seattle: Both see value in fading Seattle but warn to wait for the injury report ([46:19]).
• Jets at Miami: Simon leans Dolphins, laments how bad Jets are ([47:09]).
• Bills vs. Saints: Discuss the wisdom of taking Buffalo as massive favorites and survivor pick ([48:03]).
• Tampa Bay vs. Eagles: Simon shocked at Bucs getting +3 at home, expects pros to bet this down ([49:02]).
• Steelers in Dublin vs. Vikings: Initial lean to Steelers as a dog, but public will likely be on their side ([50:08]).
• Cowboys vs. Packers, Raiders vs. Bears: Simon sees value on Cowboys (big home chalk) and questions why Raiders are dogs at home to Chicago ([51:33]).
• Colts vs. Rams: Simon expects Colts to be a huge public dog and plans to see how the line moves.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On NFL Luck:
  “The right side is the winning side…Did you cash the ticket? Your reasoning was right if you did.”
  — Simon Hunter [18:54]
• On Betting Philosophy:
  “Don't get too emotional. Bet the number.”
  — Simon Hunter [05:52]
• On Emotional Whiplash:
  “Football is just full-on insanity. But it is so much fun to be on that roller coaster during the day.”
  — Chad Millman [19:17]
• On the Bears' Win:
  “That's why you love 0–2 teams. They're just so desperate, they play with such an anger and hunger.”
  — Simon Hunter [42:32]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:58] — Simon on NFL randomness and betting discipline
• [05:52] — Betting advice: Play the number, not the emotion
• [07:54] — Browns’ miracle finish and what the chop block penalty meant
• [14:08] — Lane Johnson injury’s effect on the Eagles
• [14:52] — Praise for Jalen Hurts’ resolve
• [17:10] — The gift of a miracle Eagles cover
• [21:38] — Jets-Bucs: Blocked kick cover
• [25:41] — Texans’ offensive dysfunction & Stroud’s struggles
• [29:38] — Broncos-Chargers: Bad discipline and coaching
• [42:32] — Bears vindicate as classic hungry 0–2 underdog
• [45:45] — Week 4 leans: Falcons discussion
• [49:02] — Early Bucs-Eagles line movement
• [50:08] — Steelers-Vikings in Dublin, line angle

Tone & Language

The episode is candid, slightly irreverent, and openly acknowledges both the emotional rollercoaster and strategic modeling behind sports betting. Chad plays the excitable, neurotic fan; Simon the calm, numbers-first pro. The language is accessible, with mild football-centric expletives, and a friendly, engaging, “in the trenches” vibe.

Summary for the Uninitiated

This episode is ideal for listeners who want to understand both the art and agony of NFL betting: why the process matters, how randomness and discipline coexist, and what experienced bettors look for when sizing up games and next week’s lines. It’s filled with real talk, humor, and actionable insights, making it as entertaining as it is instructive.

Skip the ads and intros—start at [02:10] and settle in for an hour-long masterclass in betting the NFL’s chaos.