The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square

Episode: NFL Week 4 Reactions + Early Week 5 Leans
Date: September 29, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode of “Sharp or Square,” presented by Hard Rock and part of The Volume Podcast network, features hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter recapping their NFL Week 4 betting picks, breaking down the most pivotal and controversial games, discussing sharp vs. square angles, and providing early leans for Week 5—including marquee matchups like Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, and Browns-Lions. The duo reflects on betting lessons, enduring the NFL’s chaos, and weighing the state of key teams and players for both gamblers and fans. True to the show’s ethos, they break down what went right, what went wrong, and what to watch out for—delivering sharp insights with plenty of friendly ribbing.

Key Discussion Points & Game Analyses

Overall Week 4 Recap: Living the 3-2 Life

• Chad and Simon’s weekly picks landed at 3-2 for the second week in a row, putting their season record at 12-8.
• The day started rough (1PM games went poorly), but late games salvaged their weekend.
• Theme: “Football is ridiculously fun…and brutal.” – Chad Millman [04:12]
• As Simon puts it: “Any week you go 60%—you can quit your day job.” [04:17]

Chargers vs. Giants: Betting Regrets and Quarterback Surprises

• Pick: Chargers (Lost)
• Discussion: Both regret sticking with the Chargers after the Giants started Jackson Dart. Dart’s rushing and a decimated Chargers O-line proved decisive.
• Herbert “just got outplayed by Jackson Dart.” – Simon [08:52]
• Chad admits: “It was excruciating. I was so annoyed with myself. I wanted to blame you but I couldn’t because it was all my fault.” [06:00]
• Looking forward: Questioning how Giants will handle being a road favorite next week, especially with Dart’s pedestrian passing and a week of tape on him.
• Note: Giants lost top receiver Malik Nabers to injury.

Buccaneers vs. Eagles: “You Get What You Bet with Baker”

• Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (Lost)
• Game Flow: An early blocked punt led to an Eagles TD. Bucs looked lost early but hung around thanks to Baker Mayfield’s signature volatility.
• “You never feel like you’re out of it with Baker.” – Chad [11:16]
• Simon: “Bad bet, bad read. The quarterback at the end of the day just disappoints…you get what you bet with Baker.” [10:52]
• Future Watch: Bucs head to Seattle as road dogs, which Chad pegs as an intriguing early lean for Week 5.

Lions vs. Browns: Trusted the Favorite, Got the Cover

• Pick: Lions -9 (Win; Brass Balls Pick)
• Despite Goff’s mistakes and a fast Browns start, Detroit took control with special teams and defense.
• Chad: “They cruised, totally cruised.” [13:21]
• Simon: “These are always the scary games because when you take those big numbers like we don’t like doing, you can see why people took the dog…But even though Goff didn’t have his best day, it’s just a really talented team.” [13:26]
• Browns’ defense strong, but Joe Flacco’s immobility doomed them. Asked if rookie Dylan Gabriel could see more time soon.

Rams vs. Colts: Stolen Win and In-Game Drama

• Pick: Rams -3.5 (Win)
• The decision between Rams vs. Chiefs as the fifth pick caused stress; Rams delivered thanks to a late lucky break.
• Simon: “We got stole this one even more so than the Eagles last week.” [19:35]
• Critical in-game moments:
  • Colts’ Adonai Mitchell cost his team 14 points with a goal-line fumble and a critical holding penalty.
  • Rams benefited from the Colts having only 10 men on the decisive play.
• On team quality:
  • Respect for Colts’ competitiveness and coaching—“It’s a really good offense in that Colts team…” – Simon [23:22]
  • Rams “are going to be a really tough team to beat all year if Stafford’s healthy.” [23:22]

Raiders vs. Bears: Ugly Wins, Betting the Gross

• Pick: Raiders (+1.5 or +2?) (Win)
• Four Raiders turnovers, three Geno Smith interceptions; neither team seemed to want the win.
• Simon: “This is what I dream about in May. My favorite type of games—two gross teams but with offenses that can move the ball.” [26:21]
• Aston Gentry’s 138 rushing yards: “It’s insane this was a close game, but it was because Geno Smith…just holding this Raiders team back.” [26:21]
• Millman: “This was not a game you watch unless you have a bet.” [26:21]
• Raiders’ O-line a true liability. Bears still couldn’t take advantage.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Three and two, like we say in the NFL, 60%—any week, you can quit your day job…It’s a grind to get there.” – Simon [04:17]
• “I was hate watching at the very end where I didn’t even want them to tie it…there was never gonna be a way for them to get that cover.” – Simon (Chargers) [07:01]
• “Even though Goff didn’t have his best day, it’s just a really talented team.” – Simon (Lions) [13:26]
• “If Joe Flacco is going to be your quarterback and he cannot get out of the pocket, he cannot move in the pocket—he was a sitting duck.” – Chad (Browns) [15:11]
• “These are my favorite type of games…between two gross teams but with offenses that can move the ball…” – Simon (Raiders-Bears) [26:21]

Macro Angles: State of the NFL – Dead Teams, Legit Teams, and Power Rankings

Who’s Dead? Tennessee Titans

• Both agree: Titans are easily the most lifeless team in the league.
• Brian Callahan’s record: 3-19 ATS over last two years. Chad: “He’s a terrible coach. They’re a terrible team.” [35:22]
• Simon confesses his “blind spot” as a bettor: “At what point do we just have to bite the bullet and do it? It’s insane.” [36:16]

Top Contenders Right Now

• Chad: “How are the Eagles not the best team in the NFL right now?” [38:08]
• Power rankings consensus: Eagles #1, Rams/Lions/Bills in the next tier, Chiefs rounding out top contenders.
• Simon: “If you had a Lions-Rams game on a neutral field…in January, I’m taking the Rams. Goff…sometimes in big moments does not live up to the moment.” [41:14]

Early Leans and Week 5 Lines

Key Early Line Movements & Leans:

• Giants @ Saints: Giants now favored by 2–2.5 in New Orleans. Hosts see Saints as the right side if the number gets to +3. [42:10]
  • Simon: “If this number drops below 2, I’m happy to totally ignore this game.” [43:04]
• Chiefs @ Jaguars: Opened at KC -2.5, some books at 3. Heavy early money on Jacksonville, but Simon may lean Chiefs if it settles below a field goal. [43:20]
• Titans @ Cardinals: Titans getting 8.5 at Arizona. Both lean Cardinals but wary—“Give me a 10 and then we’ll talk” – Simon [44:55]
• Bucs @ Seahawks: Bucs +2.5 or +3, both hosts like Buccaneers as a live underdog after a tough Week 4. [45:57]
• Colts vs Raiders: Colts line moving from 5.5 to 6.5, Simon strongly backing Colts, sees Raiders’ QB play as major liability. [46:46]
• Jets vs Cowboys: Simon likes Jets as soon as lines open against Dallas, based on matchup advantages for Justin Fields. [47:33]

Final Segment: Quick Recap of Week 4 Results

Winning Picks:

• Rams -3.5
• Raiders +1.5
• Lions -9

Losing Picks:

• Chargers -5.5
• Buccaneers +3.5

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Show Open / Recap Mood: 02:24–05:20
• Chargers Breakdown: 05:20–09:30
• Buccaneers-Eagles: 09:30–12:14
• Lions-Browns: 12:14–16:21
• Rams-Colts: 18:50–25:03
• Raiders-Bears: 25:28–29:37
• Tennessee Titans/State of NFL: 34:59–38:40
• Top Team Debate: 38:40–41:39
• Early Week 5 Leans: 42:00–48:39
• Weekly Results Recap: 49:18–49:39

Tone and Flow

The show maintains its signature mix of analytical depth, betting advice, and banter. Chad’s introspection and Simon’s straight-shooting style keep things sharp but approachable, making it equally useful for veteran gamblers and casual NFL fans. The hosts are honest about their own calls (good and bad) and never shy away from self-deprecating humor or calling each other out.

In Summary

Week 4 was a grind for sharp and square bettors alike, but Chad and Simon survived and advanced with another profitable week. Their main lessons? Avoid ugly chalk, trust your numbers and instincts, and never underestimate how quickly fortunes can shift in the NFL betting world. Week 5 brings new value spots and more chances to separate the wiseguys from the public. As always: feedback is a gift, and in the words of Simon, “love you.”