← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL Week 4 Reactions + Early Week 5 Leans: Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, Browns-Lions and more
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- [00:03]
A
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- [02:24]
E
Oh man. Welcome to Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hutter. Hello Simon.
- [02:51]
F
Chad, how we doing?
- [02:53]
E
Dude, Last weekend was insane and you expressed very little enthusiasm and joy for the ways in which we ended up three and two on the day we ended up three and two in the day Again today with wackiness, with insanity, with miracles. We're gonna get to that I want to know if you're feeling before. Just give me a yes or no answer and if you're feeling good, make me feel it. Are you feeling good?
- [03:27]
F
Yes.
- [03:28]
E
I felt that enthusiasm, dude. It was a terrible start for all of our games. In the early window, the Eagles blocked a Bucks punt after the first drive score a touchdown Jackson dart just slicely slices right through. The Chargers D scores a touchdown on his first drive. The Browns look competent. Joe Flacco goes 5 for 5 on his first drive. First time all season they score after four tries from the goal line. I think it would have been a lot to ask to have miracle comebacks in the early window the way we did last week and we didn't. But in the afternoon, my brother, hello Rams. Hello Raiders. God, football is ridiculously fun.
- [04:21]
F
Yeah, I feel like for the 1PMs we got punished for doing something we shouldn't have done, which was the Chargers. And with the Bucks, that's them. The breaks, like everything kept going wrong and they, you kept being sucked back in, being like they're going to score, they're just not getting the two point whatever it was. I think everyone thought they were going to get that touchdown with all the momentum they had and the way the game was going with the Eagles. So you're right, brother. The one and two starts always brutal because we know we have to go 20 and there's no room for error. And it didn't help that the Chiefs were absolutely beating the crap out of the Rams, Ravens. And it's like I'm going to be owning this one with the fans of the show because I was pounding the table all week for that Chiefs team and yeah, taking them out for the Rams was looking like a really, really done move. So yeah, three and two, like we say in the NFL, 60% any week you can quit your day job, you, you've done it. So I'll take it anytime we go three and two. It's a grind to get there. But yeah, building Back to back, three to two weeks. What are we at? 12 and eight now?
- [05:20]
E
That's three and two on the year or three and two on the week? 12 and eight on the year. We're going to go over all the games. You should be if you're watching this on YouTube, seeing the graphic right now, 12 and 8 on the year. Another Ekin out a three and two week. Let's get into it. All right. This is not me. You know Chargers, I talked about them all week. I should have walked away from it on Tuesday. When they brought in Jackson Dart as the starter, the Giants did because everything that we said were the Achilles heel of the Chargers. Potentially with Jackson Dart and on the field already with the Giants pass rush is what happened. Like Jackson Dart, his running ability was the difference in the game. Multiple times on third down, fourth down. That touchdown run and the Giants pass rush just destroyed the Chargers. Their offensive line was decimated. Joe Alt went out early in the game. They could never get Justin Herbert into any rhythm. It was a dreadful watch. It was excruciating. I was so annoyed with myself. I wanted to blame you but I couldn't because it was all my fault.
- [06:39]
F
That's nice. Yeah, it was a bad bet, bad pick in the sense we knew what we were doing was wrong. And yeah, that's the second time this year we just, we made a bet on a chalk favorite that we knew was just a bad spot. And yeah look, looking at like looking at the game, it just from the get go everything was going wrong. Like lad had a bad drop.
- [07:00]
E
Like you said, a couple bad drops early.
- [07:02]
F
Yeah. Giants drove the field which you know they shouldn't be doing against that Chargers defense. I know it's tough when the rookie comes and you know, you know what he's going to do. But he also made some big time throws in that game and Herbert, he missed some throws. Obviously he wish he'd get back and like you said, it was just a bad spot for them. So it was brutal. I was hate watching at the very end where it's like I don't even want them to tie it. I was just like, I just want you guys to lose. So people get knocked out of survivor pools now because it's like we're not, there's no way we're gonna cover that. There was never gonna be a way for them to get that cover. Even in my wildest dream. So yeah, bad, bad, bad. Obviously brutal start the day with that one.
- [07:41]
E
No, no, in my wildest dreams we were going to get the COVID When it was 2118, they were going to get the field goal, they were going to win the toss, they were going to drive down, they were going to score a touchdown, they were going to kick the extra point, then they were going to hold the Giants and then we were going to get the COVID None of that happened.
- [08:03]
F
No.
- [08:03]
E
Instead it is interesting to me. We're going to talk about next week the Giants play the Saints. They're two point favorites on the road in New Orleans and I'm really curious to talk about that game. You say Jackson dart, Mason throws. I actually, I thought he was a rookie quarterback generally. Like he did what he was comfortable doing, which is run the ball. He was pretty pedestrian as a passer. So it'll be interesting next week now that there is a week moving Malik neighbors unfortunately likely has a torn acl, is out for the year. So it'll be interesting how they line up as a favorite on the road with a week of tape when everyone is now aware he's not that comfortable passing and he's going to be using his legs aggressively.
- [08:53]
F
Yeah, I'm trying to be nice right now because you were so on your table last week with your Herbert cockiness being like, I knew this guy was great. This guy wins in September. Remember this guy? And he just got outplayed by Jackson dart. So I'm gonna be nice because we're. I'm happy to be 3 and 2. If we were sitting here 2 and 3. I would be much meaner about your love for Herbert. But you know, time will tell. We'll see. He, like you said, Joe Alt went out. He was in a bad spot. His receivers are dropping the ball. I just, I still can't believe they lost that game. And yeah, I think it was 4 or 5% of our survivor pool was on the Chargers, which I get brutal. Brutal get knocked out that way.
- [09:31]
E
Not us, buddy. Not us. Philadelphia. Tampa Bay. All right. We had the Bucks plus three and a half. We were getting the number that early pump block for the touchdown was rough. And then like they had an easy drive down the field. The Eagles did to go up 14 nothing in the in the first quarter. The bet the Bucks were just an absolute mess to start the game. Like they down penalty. They were down 14. They had a penalty on a Cooper DeJean pick. They got lucky. Baker ended up fumbling, had to recover his own fumble to salvage a field goal. Chase McLaughlin was the hero of this game. A 65 yard bomb to make it 246 where they went into halftime. The note that I said to myself, you still never feel like you're out of it with Baker and the fact that it was going into the middle of the fourth. The Bucks are driving and it's 31, 23 after multiple Baker Miracle throws one to Bucky Irving who had just fumbled to give the Eagles that extended lead. Like he's fun to watch. Even. Even though we lost with him. He's fun to watch. Yeah, you get what you bet. You get what you bet when you bet with Baker.
- [10:53]
F
Yeah. And bad bet by me. Bad Read and you know, back to back weeks, Simon says being really bad reads on numbers that feel good, feels you're getting a good number. And the quarterback, end of the day, he does something to disappoint. And Baker, he put us in positions to win. That end zone pick though, inexcusable. But like you said at the top, it felt like we lost as soon as they blocked at that point where it's like that 7. To get that back at some point is going to be hard. And they just couldn't close it right. I think it did. It was eight points. I know they ran it back and ended up being whatever it was, five or six points. The game finished that. But that, that cover was there that whole time because there was just such a momentum shift and what we predicted was true. Right. They just like you said, that the Eagles are a very dominant offense in the sense that if they can get it rolling like they did in that first half and you make stupid mistakes, it's a championship football. They're going to put touchdowns up on the scoreboard. And you know, again though, they got out of sync. All the momentum had flipped and yeah, I got sucked back in. I'm not going to lie. I thought Becker was going to get us there. So yeah, awful, awful. No cover and yeah, like you said, terrible way to start that. 0 and 2 to the 1PMS, just, just brutal.
- [12:08]
E
Also interesting, Tampa Bay on the road at Seattle next week.
- [12:14]
F
How about it?
- [12:15]
E
Two and a half point underdogs Vita Vea dominant in the run game today against the Eagles. At some point the Eagles were averaging about 2 yards of carry and this was late in the game when they were trying to grind out the clock. We know the Seahawks love to be a dominant rushing team. We know what happened to them in the final 10 minutes of that game against the Cardinals. Could the Bucks be an interesting pick? Could they, could they be an early lean going cross country as a road dog next week? I don't know. Can we get to the one? I feel like if you're gonna blame me for the Chargers, I should get some credit for the Lions because I was on this from the very beginning. I liked it at eight and a half. I liked it at nine. I kept saying this was our brass balls. Like even though the Browns went down the field early, even though Jared Goff threw a pick in the middle of the third, I think, and I'm like, you really can't make mistakes and win a Bet as a 10 point favorite. Yet they cruised, totally cruised.
- [13:27]
F
They Didn't. They didn't. Like you said, it was a little scary there at first, but thanks to Joe Flacco, we truly had no worries at the end of the day. And he built terrible. Yes, he is very bad. And he bailed us out because they. There is parts there. They're like their defense were getting stops and I think at one point maybe the Lions offense only had 100 yards. But like you said, they were up 20 to 10 or whatever it was. And it was like, well, it doesn't really matter if they keep getting short fields and it's just a field position game. They're going to win this battle. Like they have the better unit. And then whatever that was a pun or kick return, once we got that, it was like, okay, we're going to. We're going to cover this number. So, yeah, like we always talk about the trends. They're really favorable to this Lions team when they win big, coming off big wins. And the truth was that Cleveland defense, you know, they are very dominant, how great they are, but in an indoor setting like that, that's going to be a track meet and eventually the offense will come through. We saw the Browns just couldn't keep up offensively. So, yeah, good read. Great number. You know, that's. Those are always the scary games because when you take those big numbers like we don't like doing, you can see why people took the dog and how it can get there because there's just so many points in NFL like we saw with that Saints and Bills game. It's just if you just have a little bit of an off day, they can cover you because it's just these guys are pros too, and that's a huge number. So, yeah, even though Goff didn't have his best day, it's just a really talented team. The Lions even, you know, all the guys that kept getting hurt on their defense, they still held up really well throughout the game. So, yeah, props to that Lions team. After that Week one, plenty of us were leaving them for dead, saying they weren't going to make the playoffs. And now here we are through four weeks and they're looking like the same old Lions. One of the best teams in offenses in football that no one wants to go and play inside.
- [15:11]
E
Yeah, the run back by Kalief Raymond, punt return with about 13:40 left put him up 17 right. They were up 20 to 10. That, that changed the calculus. And Joe Flacco really couldn't do anything after that. He's just so. It must be. I've said this before. It's just tragic for this Browns defense because while last year they were a bet him at home but against them on the road team last year they were also giving up 30, 40 points on the road. This year, at least in this game, they were much better at on the road on a fast track. It's just like if Joe Flacco is going to be your quarterback and he cannot get out of the pocket, he cannot move in the pocket. He was a sitting duck the entire game. I'm really curious if Dylan Gabriel is going to start getting more time. He came in at the end of the game next week. They're playing Minnesota in London. I don't know if that's going to be a game where you want to start a rookie in his first no.
- [16:17]
F
They did him dirty. As soon as he came in the game they put up a chart of him being 5:11. It's like Jesus.
- [16:21]
E
Oh, I know.
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F
That's, that's, that's dirty.
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E
That was just nasty. One thing to think about because now everyone's going to be thinking about the Lions, Lions, Lions, Terry and Arnold cornerback who is a guaranteed illegal contact or pass interference every game left the game and DJ Reed left the game on a cart. So there could be some defensive injury issues already.
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E
Are you ready to talk about the Indianapolis Colts at the Los Angeles Rams? We had the Rams minus three and a half and if we go back to the morning, the last conversation we had was this is the last game in do we want the Chiefs? Do we want the Rams? I was leaning Rams. You said you wanted Rams. I didn't want you to talk me out of the Rams. I didn't want to have to talk you out of the Chiefs. So we collectively landed on the Rams. There was no separation between us. And I will tell you, that whole time I was watching that Chiefs game, I'm like, we're the fucking worst.
- [19:36]
F
Yeah, it's just tough. Again, I'm in a position where I have a ton of money on the line with these certain games. So in that scenario, I had a lot more money, I guess on the Chiefs, but I felt more confident in playing that number. But in our pick contest, I feel more confident in the spot for the Rams going against Daniel Jones, which was due to have a bad game and their offense was due to regress and he tried, he tried throwing picks earlier there and they were dropping them and it's like, you know, it just was not going the Rams way. And like you said, we were both killing ourselves because that Chiefs, that's why I was banging the table. That's just a spot where it's a Super bowl pedigree team that's very well coached playing against a team that is just simply banged up that they were like the Ravens. So this Rams team, I'm glad it came through for us. We're both on the same page. This, this one felt like we got stole this one even more so than that Eagles last week where yeah, but seeing the fumble out the back of the end zone and Stafford having what it felt like four straight three and outs, like they're just were totally out of sync and the Colts did outplay them in many ways. So once again it's about trusting the number. Doesn't matter what happens. It's all about the number and the situation. And that cold side was just getting hammered all week and that number never budged. And it's very telling when the book does that. And because again, it's smart money on the ramp side. And of course they covered. I can't believe it. Like, you're in the same boat as me. I thought for sure it would just be a field goal to win. It never did. I think they would get the, you know, two safeties playing up and letting them get a free runner down the sideline. So, two, two. Atwell, we thank you for the COVID Huge monster. We needed it to go 3 and 2.
- [21:23]
E
Well, look, it wasn't just two safeties playing up. The Colts only had 10 defenders on the field for that.
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F
Really?
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E
Yeah.
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F
Oh, my God.
- [21:32]
E
So they, they picked each other off and they only had 10 defenders on the field. So it was a, a stunning, stunning way to get a cover, I will say. Like, I kind of thought when they got the ball they were going to break one because I did think that the Colts are going to be playing up on the line and, and be a little bit aggressive. So in my head I'm like, I don't know, maybe we'll steal one here. And we totally did. Poor Adonai Mitchell. That's the reason they lost that game. Look, the guy had a great catch down the sideline, fought through defenders to get the catch running for the touchdown. The ball slips out of his hand literally inches before he crosses the goal line out of the back of the end zone. A touchback for the Rams. That takes seven points off the board for the Colts. And then later in the game, the Colts are driving. Jonathan Taylor does what he does. He breaks one down the field, breaks a bunch of tackles, scores in a long touchdown run called back because Adonai Mitchell was called for holding. That's Adonai Mitchell costing his team 14 points. That is a. And then on that drive, the Colts ended up getting sacked, having a fumble. It was covered by them, but they had to punt. They knocked themselves out of field goal range. So that was sort of a game saving drive and a game saving penalty by Adonai Mitchell. I guess I'm curious, like, do we think the Colts are as good as they were? Do we think that the Rams are elite? Like, I thought this game would just determine something for us. I don't know that it did.
- [23:23]
F
No, I don't think football works that way. It's just One game, one scenario. And I view it as respect to the Colts. Like to me, the Colts, that was a spot they're most likely going to get rolled. And I'd be excited if I was a Colts fan because Daniel Jones, even on an off day like he was today, he's going to keep pushing the ball downfield. And that offensive scheme and how they use Tyler Warren and the different pieces, it's. It's just a fun offense right now. And you know, like you just said, when they have a running back that can produce like they do right now, it's. It's a really good offense in that Colts team. So I, I'd be excited if I was a Colts fan for the Rams. Like, you're right. There's probably things we could question about them like Stafford being inconsistent, but they. Everything I saw from them today, it's just like, yeah, they're going to be a really tough team to beat all year if Stafford's healthy. Like that defense, that front seven, really good, really well coached. And yeah, the Puka Adams with Williams, the running back, that combo is just one of the best in all football. So yeah, as a Rams, like you said, we feel like we got lucky. They definitely got lucky to win that one, but they were probably owed by the football guys from the week before. So a little see saw play by us on that one.
- [24:31]
E
Yeah. I think my point about the Colts is they should have gotten rolled in this game and there were times when it looked like they could have. But their defense was great and really other than that, last play controlled the game and was in Stafford's grill. Made really good plays. They kept them from converting first downs. So I was just impressed that they didn't sort of get rolled in that game. That's what I'm talking about. Oh, maybe they are more competitive than we might have thought they were going to be.
- [25:04]
F
Division, division, seventh seed. That's still on the table for me for this Colts team. They got, they got the guys to do it. They can stay healthy. I think, you know, with Jonathan Taylor running like he is, I don't know they're going to be. They're going to be a tough out every week and it's. As a Colts fan, you haven't had that. And I, I guess Philip Rivers. But even going back it's probably Andrew look truly. But I know if Rivers got to under the playoffs. But this is a different team than prior Colts teams, that's for sure.
- [25:29]
E
Yep. All right. Last game, the one that put us over the edge three and two. Boy, neither team really wanted to win this game to be honest. I mean they were dreadful. The Raiders had four turnovers. Geno had three picks. The Bears could not convert on any of the turnovers. Like I think it was 14:9 at halftime with two ugly touchdowns for the Raiders and three field goals for the Bears. Like I think you nailed it early in the week when we were leaning Raiders as one and a half point underdogs. The pressure on Caleb was going to be insane. And he had multiple tipped passes including one Max Crosby who had three tip passes in the first quarter, tipped one to himself and intercepted it himself. This was, this was not a game you watch unless you have a bet.
- [26:21]
F
On it on the other way. This is what I dream about in May. These are my favorite type of games between two gross teams but with offenses that can move the ball because it's exciting. Teams like I talk coming in this was going to be their get right for Genti and you know they should have destroyed this Bears team if they just would have just relied on the running game. The guy was averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Genti you finished with 138 rushing yards. It's insane that this was a close game but it was close because Geno Smith like you said he threw three really bad picks and Caleb who did struggle didn't turn it over and we've seen him football it's just, it's. It's the biggest thing obviously behind taking sevens and for threes like if you kick field goals like the Bears were doing usually you don't deserve to steal these type of games. But again Gino through three picks I think he's by far leading the league with picks this season. It's. He's just holding this Raiders team back because like you said their defense played well enough to win. Genti played well enough to win without. Well he was running. It's all about Gino throwing for 117 against a banged up Bears secondary. Like they are awful picks too. Like terrible reads like he didn't see the guys Y I feel very fortunate that we got the COVID I feel sick for people that I also bet the -1 and a half on the Raiders and they had the opportunity there. Right. They had the lead at the end of the game just to get a stop. But Caleb Williams big time step up drove the field, got the touchdown. Thank you. Caleb did not get the two pointer. We get the COVID the three and two weeks so definitely needed it.
- [28:02]
E
Yeah when, when they kicked that field goal the Raiders to go up 24:19 I in my notes I wrote I don't love that they're kicking a field goal to go up five and it's going to be a furious sort of final 5 minute drill for the Bears. And that's exactly what happened. Like they did exactly what we all expected them to do. I didn't even consider that they were going to go for the two point conversion to go up three. So I'm glad I didn't do the math on that. And I was only thinking they're automatically going to go up two and we're screwed. Fantastic. This is I just want to detail how pathetic the Raiders offensive line was early in the game before Aston Genty went off. He had like you said, 138 yards, one rushing touchdown, 64 yards, three touchdowns today, two receiving touchdowns. At one point in the game the Raiders tried to convert a third and one couldn't get off the line of scrimmage. They went four fourth and one at their own 30. They were stopped in the backfield and fumbled the ball like this o line is is really a problem for them.
- [29:18]
F
It is like what we said in this game, I knew the deal is just two bad teams who could outlast or survive the other one. And classic case of the best of the number which makes me sick again because there's people out there they, they took the Raiders plus one and a half then they took the Bears plus one and a half and they hit that number and it's like how do they do it? It's crazy.
- [29:37]
E
I know, I know. It's amazing. All right, we're gonna take a quick break. We with our friends from Hard Rock. We're going to come back and we're going to take comments from the people in the chat. We're going to talk, you know, finalize our record from the weekend on all of our bets. We're going to talk about our early leans so much more. We'll be back in a second. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Week four closes out Monday with a double header. New York versus Miami and Cincinnati versus Denver. The this is where the Sharps separate from the squares. Let's check out more streaks from Hard Rock bets stats hub for tomorrow night's game. You can find live odds to bet on all these streaks in the Hard Rock Bet app. Miami has won nine in a row against New York at Hard Rock Stadium and Devin Achan has scored a touchdown in six straight home games. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock bet. There's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida Influence Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Indiana or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-888- admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. All right, so our last one in was the Rams. Our last one out was the Chiefs. We got the record that we deserved. Simon says was Bucks plus three and a half. Chad loved the Chargers minus six. Brass balls was Lions minus nine. Good for us. Rock and a hard place was the Chiefs good for us. Sharp versus Square. I had the Niners minus three. The chat would really like to have a conversation about the Niners. We're going to do that. You had the Rams minus three and a half. Our favorites parlay Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams and Broncos. One game to go. So hopefully people will winning a little money on that. Our underdog parlay Chiefs, Bucks, Atlanta, Panthers, Raiders. So not as much success on that one before we get to the early liens. So in the chat, a lot of people asking questions about the Raiders and like are they bad? Are the Jags legit? Which do we think is the likelier scenario? And I would credit that to anybody in the chat, but that's literally what the entire chat is talking about. Brock Purdy at one point he just threw the ball directly to a Jacksonville Jaguar like they did not look good today. And the Jags at one point, Trevor Lawrence in the second half, for say 25 minutes of the second half looked like the Trevor Lawrence that we never want to bet on. What do we think of the Jacksonville.
- [33:14]
F
Jaguars right now playing well like defensively, a lot of the stuff they're doing too offensively, the way they're running the ball and the only real weakness I think you just nailed is Trevor Lawrence in my Opinion there's something off about him, or I guess, you know, Brian Thompson Jr. Is a problem too, but.
- [33:30]
E
Yeah, he played better today.
- [33:32]
F
He did. He also had some drops that are very questionable. I thought Travis Hunter actually had a really good game, but yeah, that. That pretty throw I know exactly they're talking about was terrible. Yeah. But it just felt like a guy trying to do too much. I don't take too much away from it. It's their first loss of the year. We've talked about. They've been very fortunate. I thought in this game they would get right against this Jaguars team, but, yeah, something's. Something's just off for this 49ers team. On the flip side, huge win for the Jaguars. Right? That's. That's a big deal. Go across country, win that type of game against an undefeated team. And yeah, Trevor, I think he had like a. A really bad pick that got called away because of a penalty. And yeah, overall he just, you know, as bad as he did play, he didn't put him in positions to lose, which Purdy did a few times. So you try not to overreact. But I, I'm definitely, definitely a little worried about this 49ers team with all the injuries they've had and what that means to them going forward. So I'm going to dive into a more. Watch the tape on that game because I honestly didn't have it on because we didn't really bet it or have it in our contest. I mean, I was on the 49ers, but not like, compared to obviously that Chiefs or that Rams game. So, yeah, that was a game I didn't watch much of, but felt like every time they did pop in, it was just Purdy turning the ball over. But they had a chance at the end, right? If you would have drove that field, they could have won the game. But, yeah, yeah, it just. Just wasn't a good game from Purdy.
- [35:00]
E
If we were to look at the NFL right now as gamblers, which teams do we think look totally dead right now? I think there's one that immediately comes to mind.
- [35:18]
F
I mean, there's only one Tennessee.
- [35:21]
E
Tennessee Titans.
- [35:22]
F
Yeah, that's the only team.
- [35:25]
E
Tennessee Titans in the Brian Callahan era, which now goes a season and four games. So that's 22 games. I think they are three and 19 against the spread, including, what was it, two and 16 last year? No, two. And what was it? Two and 15 last year and now. So it's three and 18. I can't even do the math. They're one in three this year. So he's a terrible coach. They're a terrible team. Even though the Texans could only score six points in the early part of this game, they still couldn't do anything to make it a competitive game.
- [36:17]
F
Yeah, we obviously have many blind spots. The Tennessee Titans are our biggest blind spot. I can guarantee if I go back through our picks, we probably have taken them more times than we've bet against them in our contest over that two year span. And it makes me hate. I want to blame you, Chad, because I wish you were more Joe Public, because I could see if I just had some Joe Public guy, he would be what a lot of people are, which is just every week firing away against this Tennessee team as long as Callahan's the head coach. And they're winning. They've been winning for two years. And we keep overthinking it and not playing against them in our contest every week because the number's too big, whatever it may be. And I hate it because I know as soon as we start jumping on the train, it'll go the other way. But at what point do we just have to bite the bullet and do it? It's insane. Like, that was a non competitive game. The Houston didn't even play that well and you know, they were settling for field goals. I think it was six nothing. And they're, you know, just lackluster and just, you know, the offensive Tennessee can get nothing going and eventually their defense just gives up. Right. They're exhausted probably so. Terrible, terrible team. Thank God we took Houston and Survivor because there was a minute there where they're up, you know, 20 or 26 nothing. And the bills are potentially about to be losing. The Chargers were kind of losing. It was like, oh my God, this is going to be that day. And me and Chad somehow dodged it. We're usually the suckers that were going to be on the Bills. Nope, didn't matter. Bills still came through. So, yeah, for Survivor, I hope everyone followed that. Houston 1. I'm glad I got them done because like we said, their offense, Tennessee, gave that game away. I still do not trust them and CJ with that offense. But man, is Tennessee, by far the worst team of football.
- [37:59]
E
Tennessee. By the way, if we're interested, we'll go through this in one second. Tennessee, eight and a half point underdog at Arizona this week. So we do have a chance to bet against Tennessee this week. But one thing I want to review. September is now over in the NFL. We're through four weeks. Who do you Think looks like the best team in the NFL. To me, it's fairly obvious who I think the best team is in the NFL. I will, I will say it first because that way you don't have to be accused of being a homer. But how are the Eagles not the best team in the NFL right now?
- [38:41]
F
Yeah, that's fair I guess. I mean like we said they a week to week league but for the start of what their schedule was to what they've accomplished with all the superblives and you know, coming off the Super bowl to be 4, 0, I guess it is harder to argue against them, but it's tough trying to think who would be the number two team. To me that's the real debate because every team right now has their warts. And like I said, that's through four weeks. These are very incomplete teams. These teams are just trying to figure it out as they go here. But you could make the argument that the Rams, you could put them at number two. Like the only thing they've lost to is this Eagles team. And you know, they have had a pretty hard schedule themselves and they've performed well. Like that Colts game, a lot of teams would have turned on it because it was not going right their way and they stuck in it. So yeah, I'm kind of interested in your take on it because afc, everyone's gonna go with the Bills. But like, yeah, let's be honest. If they're, if they're getting, if their defense is still what it is right now in January. We've seen this movie with Josh Allen before. He can only do so much. He needs guys back there. So that's. What if people want to put them too. I get it. I just, I, I can't get over how bad their defense is with all the injuries. It's. I just feel so bad for Josh. He's just so good. It should be the best team. He should be number one over the Eagles. But they're just not because the Eagles are unlike them. The Eagles are healthy right now.
- [40:09]
E
I think the other team that I was going to mention, leaving the Bills out of it because I think their defense just probably isn't good enough to say they're the best. And the teams they've beaten compared to who the Eagles have beaten. You said the team earlier, the Lions, like they've been rolling and they look exactly the same as they have the past couple years when they've been one of the best teams in the NFL. Their running game has been incredibly powerful. Today they outscored the Best defense in the NFL and made them look like not a very good defense at the end of the game. They beat up on the Bears whose offense against other teams has been doing really well. They lost to the Packers. The packers have been incredibly competitive. They lost in their first game without their two coordinators. It was almost like it was set up for them to lose. Like they're a really good team right now. Would you rather bet on the. If you had a Lions Rams game on a neutral field, who are you taking?
- [41:15]
F
And it's January. I'm taking. I'm taking the Rams.
- [41:18]
E
Really?
- [41:18]
F
Yeah. Again, I just. It's golf, man. I, I respect them, but he just sometimes in big moments he does not live up to the moment. So that's, that's my issue with him. I agree with you. Tons of talent, really good teams still. That's fair. Put them up there in the top three, top four teams in football right now. But I still still have questions about golf.
- [41:39]
E
So if we're power rating it right now, we'd probably have Eagles, Rams slash Lions, Lions slash Rams. And then the Buffalo Bills and then Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs look pretty good if they can get their weapons together. And their defense today was totally ridiculous.
- [42:00]
F
You saw the difference. Having Worthy. Worthy just stretches the field in a way that there's no other player in their team that can do that for them. So.
- [42:07]
E
But also their running game was better. Like everyone played with a little more pep today.
- [42:10]
F
Yeah.
- [42:11]
E
All right, let's talk about some early leans. I brought up two games. I don't know that I have any strong opinions yet on any of the games for next week, but I do think it's interesting that the New York Giants are two point favorites over the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Jackson Stark going on the road and after beating up on the Chargers at home, he's now going to be in a spot where he's a favorite on the road. And he still hasn't proven that he's someone you can rely on to convert with his arm.
- [42:44]
F
Yeah, that seems to feel like a no brainer. Taking the plus two and a half right, hoping they can get the plus three.
- [42:51]
E
It's already moved from two to two and a half, so that would be amazing.
- [42:54]
F
If it keeps moving that way, the view of it from the general public is going to be Spencer Rather is a loser. He never wins. He will find a way to lose. Jackson Dart is 1 0. He looks like a kid that could find a way to win. I get it. I see why the books are making Them the favorite here. To me, it's going to be about the number. Three and a half. Two and a half. I'm a Saints backer. If this number does drop below 2, I'm happy to totally ignore this game.
- [43:21]
E
This upcoming week, Casey is visiting Jacksonville. We just said Kansas City could be a top five team in the NFL. Now Jacksonville is a two and a half point underdog at home. I will say this defense has been incredibly impressive. And the pressure this defense has been getting consistently week in and week out is honestly what's been keeping them in the games and helping them get to the record that they have much, much more than Trevor Lawrence. Are we getting on the wagon and Fade and Patrick Mahomes now.
- [43:55]
F
It'S all about the number. It really is. Like, there's some books out there that open this at three and a half. Chad. So you were able to get the Jacks plus three and a half, which I think was probably a really favorable number for them and the position they're in for this matchup. But, you know, we'll see. We'll see what it reopens right now because I'm looking right now, all these books have taken it down for the most part. So that, that shows that early money came in pretty heavy on the Jaguars for them to take this number down. So, yeah, two and a half. I could be a. I could be a Chiefs guy. That feels like a Chiefs number here. So I'll be patient. See what, see what the public does with that. I have no bets on that game yet, though.
- [44:33]
E
Do we even want to tempt ourselves with Tennessee as an eight and a half point road underdog against Arizona and we're just like, screw it, we're taking the Cardinals.
- [44:48]
F
We might have to. But no, I mean, that's what sucks about this Tennessee team. Obviously. This is a great number. This is a great line for Tennessee.
- [44:55]
E
Yeah.
- [44:55]
F
Against Kyler Murray. We talk all the time. Kyler is a favorite. He. He blows this game. But I just even how bad the Cardinals defense is. I don't know how Tennessee scores and moves the ball consistently. They're just so bad. So, yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna. I'm. I'm trying to join our public friends. I'm leaning towards the Cardinals even though they're attempting me. Trying to suck me on this Tennessee line, but I won't do it. Give me a 10 and then we'll talk sports books.
- [45:21]
E
By the way, Jacksonville, the lines are moving. Jacksonville is at three, I'm seeing right now. And New Orleans is at two and a half. So we're seeing where the money is coming. The money is coming in in Kansas City. Kansas City. The money is coming in on Jackson Dart right now. What games am I missing from your very, very tired, exhausted, ready to crash on your mattress full of Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams cash.
- [45:57]
F
Just games I'll grab way too early. And it's people that are listening to this. You can be more patient because I think these lines might go against us. Chattery talked about the Bucks. They're plus two and a half plus three against the Seahawks. That's going to be a Bucks line. I know it's painful to go back to them after what just happened. But that Seahawks team, as good as they are, I don't know if they deserve that much respect yet against a Bucs team that has proven it and they have shown they are consistent. So I'm going to join you on that one. I thought that was a number that jumped out right away and pretty easy off the bat. I've talked about that Colts team. I am drinking the Kool Aid. I like the hype. I am almost positive after Gino threw another three picks my model is going to make this seven, seven and a half. It's six five and a half right now.
- [46:46]
E
Colts, it's moving. It's now six and a half.
- [46:50]
F
Grab it looks I've as soon as we came on this call because me and Chad were watching that Raiders game live. I was just hammering the Colts five and a half and six and was hoping that's what it would be for the show. So it's already going to six and a half. I'd keep taking it. I just I don't like the way that matches up for this Raiders team and I already know this cold side is going to be very public, very, very public. So get try to get the best number while you can. I do see this going above the seven and my last one, jets, they're playing the Cowboys at home. I'm just grabbing it now just in case they do beat, you know, a Miami team that could be for Alder Drilling could be own four. It's really about how Fields plays against certain teams and this Dallas team, their front we've seen, they have been struggling and this is the exact type of matchup that you want for Justin Fields. A front that will not be able to get pressure on him because they don't have any type of athletes that can give him fits. So I, I like that number for a Jets team and yeah, the, the Cowboys, I think their days like we saw it last week, they were favorites against the Bears on the road. I think it's coming to an end them being these little favorites on the road against these bad teams. They are just a bad team and I'm excited for them tonight because I had bet them tonight because they did get Bland back and I think Diggs came back for them. The secondary, see what they can do with this defense. Now they have their guys back but that's really matchup based number base. I think this is, this is a good number for this jets team that opened at plus two plus one and a half.
- [48:19]
E
The line in that game is six and a half now Cowboys plus six and a half. It had been at seven. Up as high as seven and a half. At six and a half. I don't think we have an opinion opinion. Seven and a half. Seven. We were leaning Cowboys. I didn't make any plays on this year on the Cowboys.
- [48:39]
F
Yeah, don't lean here. I actually bet it. I bet seven on the Cowboys. I've bet the six and a half. It's not fun but I gave the stat earlier. If you could have got the seven, that was the number you really wanted. Like Chad's saying six and a half. I'm not going to let that scare me off you. I think Green Bay is a very talented team. They obviously could roll a bad team here but historically Dak has done very well when he's a big dog like this, especially at home. And yeah, it's, it's, it's an interesting bet. Chad, like you said, this, this, this Dallas team, they. They might actually be one of the worst teams in football. And we're going to find out tonight. Was that just a mirage that game against the Bears or is that defense really that bad?
- [49:18]
E
All right, final review. The games that we won today, we won the Rams minus three and a half. The Raiders plus one and a half. And we won the Lions minus nine and a half. We lost the Chargers minus 5.5 and we lost the Bucs plus 3.5. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock that part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate reviews. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
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