← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 6 Bets: Lions-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Cowboys-Panthers, Pats-Saints and more
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- [00:02]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [00:26]
Simon Hunter
How we doing? Chad?
- [00:28]
Chad Millman
Listen brother, I stayed up late and I was rewarded for that over the weekend. Let's summarize, okay. Over the weekend, five teams came back from two Dutch down deficits to win outright. Six teams came back from double digit deficits. We bet on five of those teams. We put two of those teams in our final five. The last of those was the Jags. This was all mine, brother. I get all the flowers. You encouraged me in, I would say a supportive way because you called this my baby and we should put it in. Others might say you were bullying me. But look, we could have had an easy Monday. We could have been out of the weekend 3 and 2 on Sunday. I could have gone to bed by 8, 8, 9pm last night. Instead, I had to watch Trevor Lawrence. I had to watch Trevor Lawrence throw a pass 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage because he completely lost where he was. I had to watch Trevor Lawrence get multiple delay of game calls. And because he cannot seem to manage the clock and the play call and the movement and all the things you are supposed to do as a professional quarterback with a guaranteed $155 million. I listened to Troy Aikman try his hardest not to call Trevor Lawrence. Kind of an idiot for making all these stupid mistakes. For trying to squeeze passes into double coverage and impossible windows instead of taking the easy outlet pass. Am I the only one? When the Jags were on their own 10 yard line and had a seven point lead, who wasn't screaming? Why the are you putting the ball in Trevor Lawrence's hands right now? I would have bet minus a thousand that he was going to throw a pick like it was insane to be doing what they had done. And yet, and yet he's so pretty. He's so pretty and he's so physically gifted that Pastor Brian Thomas, when he fell, he got back up, panicked and just ran. Such a sweet, sweet boy. Simon. The Jacks covered the three and a half.
- [03:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, really, really dumb game. And we'll take it every time. You know, I'm like, you probably had zero faith in Trevor Lawrence was going to come back for the win. That was just a classic momes comeback. It's over win. But shockingly they left the kid too much time and made some big time throws. So we'll give Trevor his flowers again. Like you said, he makes some so many idiotic plays. That's why we rip them. But yeah, that's the unique spot. Chad, the pros agreed with you. Even if I didn't agree with it, I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. And not that I forced you to put that one in, but it was. I did bully a little bit just because it's like, dude, I already gave you your flowers that you were on the right side. The pros are agreeing with you. Stick to it. Like, put it in. Like, I'm, I'm happy putting my own pics in, but I also want you to put pics in. So we're sweating last night and you have that feeling of doom and gloom that I feel every weekend, which I know you do too, but that one right there was like, like you said, your baby. So I'm glad we shoved it in. No regrets. Even if it was going to lose, it was like, I still feel like it was the good bet because the Jags defense, which is part of the reason I agreed to take it, they got that insane turnover luck that keeps going their way. And Lloyd, you know, quickly becoming the defensive player of the year, had an insane pick six. Like, crazy athleticism, dodging those tacklers, taking it 99 yards. So, you know, yeah, really, really happy for Jags fans. Trevor Lawrence, like, that's a statement game, maybe dictates the rest of their season, but Colts and the jags sitting at 4 and 1, top of the AFC. This is seasons shaping up the bizarro world right now. I love it.
- [04:45]
Chad Millman
Well, listen, a buddy of mine texted me last night. This game is drunk because it was so weird. Look, when I liked the Jags, I, I made it pretty clear during the week I didn't like the Jags because of Trevor Lawrence. I liked the Jags in spite of Trevor Lawrence. I liked them because of their defense and because they had been playing so aggressively defensively and getting a lot of turnovers. And that's sort of what, what happened last night. So good for us. Good for the week. We went 3 and 2 last week in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. You can see the graphic. We're putting it up. We won with the Texans, the Commanders and the Jags. We lost with the jets and Rams 3 and 2 on the week, 15 and 10 on the year. Through five weeks, we are five games above.500. I'm taking that every single day of the week. Make sure you check out that Sunday morning show if you want the games. That will be our official five favorite games after we check out latest lines and injuries and all that stuff. This is the Tuesday show where you will get our official up to date record. Like I said for the year now 15 and 10. We're going to review the entire slate today. Simon 13 teams in the NFL are below.500. That's 40%. 16 teams are above.500. I feel like this is not parody so much as it is like the haves and the have nots. I want to know how will we have success and not get suckered this week in week six? Don't forget you can get the shows on Sharper Square YouTube subscribe Like this video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square Apple pods Spotify wherever you get your pods. All right, Thursday Night Football, 8:15pm Eastern on Amazon Prime. Philadelphia Eagles visiting the New York Football Giants. The number is seven and a half. Seems like it's moving towards seven but it's, it's a slow roll. It's a lot of hesitancy. Two of the teams that gave up 14 point leads and lost the Giants early the Eagles late. Give me your take. I got thoughts but I kind of want to hear where you're at.
- [07:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say it's probably a giant line. Probably just take the seven and a half. I don't know how much I'll have invested in this game but Eagles just something looks a little off obviously with their offense and you know these type of spreads you need to be a functioning team. Right. So could the Eagles absolutely smoke this giants team by 30? Of course they have way more talent across the board. This is not the best matchup obviously for Jackson Dart going against a Fangs defense that's going to give him a lot of challenging looks. But it's a big number and we've seen the Eagles struggle this season to really put up a ton of points offensively or just be consistent. So you know for Eagles this is a get right spot. You know, public will come in on them. This will be just, just like the Rams last week. This would be in every teaser, every moneyline parlay. So it'll be a heavy, heavily bet team. Eagles money line especially. So I thought the seven and a half would just hold because of that. Like so many people are going to do their six and a half points, seven, six point teasers. But like Chad said, I think this will get Driven down by professional money because of that hook and just the fact that this Eagles team is perceived to struggle closing teams out and on a short week like we've seen, they could have random injuries that we just don't know about. And guys when I play like Saquon could miss this game because he's got a bad knee. No one really knows because it's such a short week. So it's tough picking these Thursday's games, especially when you just don't have an injury report here early Tuesday morning. But yeah, for me just going off the number, I'll take the seven and a half with the Giants for now.
- [08:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look Landon Dickerson, we don't know his status for this week. I think that had an impact last week and sort of how the Eagles were able to to protect against the Broncos. I think on the field it's kind of a weird matchup. Like there's so many ways in which the Eagles offense, as bad as they've been, they actually rank really high in all the advanced analytics. They're also excellent in the red zone and the Giants defense is terrible in the red zone. And like you said, it's you know, Vic Fangio against Jackson dart. Their pass rush for the Giants is very easy. Inconsistent. Is that a chance for the Eagles to as you just mentioned in a get right spot. Tricky one, tricky one. I don't love it. I don't like either side, sir. International waters the land that law forgot. Simon, I know you love England cuz you're from there. Not the posh part of England like London, but you are from England. This weekend's game became between the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. We get the full English which would make me sick to my stomach like watching the New York jets early on a Sunday morning. They too are seven and a half point underdogs against the Broncos. Of course we think there's value in the jets for whatever that means when you're betting on the jets because every week there's going to be value on the jets because nobody wants to bet them and everybody's going to be on the Broncos because they just beat the Eagles on the road and came back from 14 points down. But like what is value worth if we're just betting on really bad teams?
- [10:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and I'll end up being on some type of form of the Broncos money line I guess. But I don't know what to do here with this number. Like this is the type of game too where I might take the alt line like I might take Broncos -13 and a half or something because.
- [10:56]
Chad Millman
Oh, that's interesting.
- [10:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they could just roll this. Like we've seen, this jets team is highly dysfunctional now they're on the road in a international game with not that much leadership. Like, how are these guys going to handle that? And this Broncos team, the fear for them, if you're looking for a reason to fade them, it's like, did they just win their Super Bowl? Their locker room after that game was like smoke filled boozes going. They apparently took the bus through Broad street of Philadelphia blasting Meek Mill, celebrating after the win. And it's like, okay, I get it. Like you took down the Eagles. It's a huge win. How are the Broncos going to react to this? Because it's like, oh my God, talk about totally opposite spectrums, where the vibes could not be higher for this Broncos team and this jets team could easily have quit on Aaron Glenn in this season. Sitting here 05 with zero takeaways, which is, I don't know if you saw that stat. It's like never been done in football. It's going to be.05 while having zero takeaways. So nightmare, nightmare season for the Jets. I can't keep punishing myself taking their side. Even though it's like, I want to take this number so bad. Of course I'll just, I'll just be a sucker with the public. Take the favorites. And it just, it feels like last week like I wanted to be on the Browns, talked myself out of it because it was Gabriel and we've seen how these favorites have done internationally and I was hating myself for three quarters and then somehow the favorite found a way stupidly and covered that three and a half where it's like, it's just these international games somehow these favorites cover. So yeah, trying. Trying not to be on the jet side is best of my ability. Like, no matter what, I'm not going to be in this jet side. I'm just fighting it right now. It's tough.
- [12:34]
Chad Millman
I know. I feel the same exact way because it's feels like at some point in our lives this would have been an automatic play. And like we can see the flickers of promise that suck us in and you can see underlying metrics that make you excited about the jets and the way they can move the ball and they're not that terrible on third downs and they're rushing the ball really well. Those flickers are not translating into real points on the board or wins in our pockets. I don't think we have to Bet this game at all. Dallas at Carolina Carolina Panthers plus three and a half. Part of me feels like we got our Panthers right spot win on Sunday against Miami and we should avoid the Panthers at all costs for the rest of the year because there could be a thousand yards of offense in this game. You know the Panthers just had a 200 yard rusher against Miami. The Cowboys had a guy go for 140 and average 8.4 yards per carry against the Jets. You could argue Dak is playing as well as anybody except maybe Baker. Like if you had to guess an MVP right now, it'd probably be Baker. Dak is doing this without CD Lamb, without 80% of his offensive line which was the main reason we bet against him the other day. Like it's easy to see this being a game where the hook matters a lot. Also very easy to pass on it.
- [14:06]
Simon Hunter
Shocked to hear this from Chad, but really, yeah, this is a no brainer Panthers. There's three and a half's out there. You grab it. This was almost my Simon says bet. So I'm happy to hear that you're disinterested or you kind of like the Cowboys here.
- [14:18]
Chad Millman
So I don't like the Cowboys at all. I don't really like either of them.
- [14:21]
Simon Hunter
What are you Chad pass this week? How many games are you going to pass on? Jesus Christ, man.
- [14:25]
Chad Millman
Maybe all of them. Maybe I only want to make.
- [14:26]
Simon Hunter
I do not like this chat. After winning your Jags bet now you're passing everything. What is happening?
- [14:30]
Chad Millman
I am disciplined. I am really pleased with how you're doing so far this year.
- [14:34]
Simon Hunter
So I'm going to need picks eventually. Yeah, give me Panthers plus three and a half. It's Panthers magic. Might just be at home. Maybe that's. Maybe that's our thing for them this year. Maybe I agree with you. We can avoid them on the road but at home they have this different type of confidence that I really see with Bryce Young and the way the offense moves. And again, small sample, they're two and three this season but their two wins had been at home and there were two wins at home. They put up 27 points and 30 points. Like Atlanta's defense. Okay, they're not the best. They still had a great game at home in that spot and then that Miami comeback, it just showed me a lot. Like they're like you said, down 17 nothing. Bryce Young hung in the pocket, made some big time throws while getting just beat up and he's no worse for the wear. Like I checked today, not on the Injury report. So I think he's fine. And yeah, I'm shocked you don't like this. Like this Cowboys team is good like you said Dax playing at incredibly high level. They have been incredibly fortunate as well though these last couple weeks. I think we can all agree like that packers game, they could easily been gone sideways and been down 20 to nothing in that game. So I just think this Cowboys team will keep being overvalued and like you're feeling, I think the public will be in the same boat. Who's going to be backing this Panthers team, especially at Hard rock here at 3. Every one of the grams going to be coming in on this Cowboys team, especially at minus three. So I think it's going to be a good number. I literally have this graded at a pick so it's like I'm getting a ton of value in my opinion on Carolina Cowboys. The Panthers, they're not that much different especially with all the injuries to this Cowboys team. So yeah, three and a half with the hook. No brainer. Might have to bully you to have this one in our contest at some point. I just, I can't get away from it. Like there's a lot of three and a half dogs I like this week. This is one of them. Just too much disrespect to a Carolina team that I feel like has proven to us, the sportsbook and everyone else they're not what they were last year. This is a functioning offense with a quarterback that could push the ball downfield which, which was lacking last year. And now you see Bryce Young has some confidence. He's making some big time throws. I like you said, this is going to be a shootout. That's why I like the hook. Get the three and a half if you count on Carolina.
- [16:48]
Chad Millman
I did not expect you to have that strong opinion on this game.
- [16:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, well I'm not passing, that's for sure. Unbelievable.
- [17:00]
Chad Millman
I don't have to have an opinion on every single game.
- [17:03]
Simon Hunter
Sure you do.
- [17:04]
Chad Millman
I'm not, I'm not against this game. I'm just not for either side right now.
- [17:08]
Simon Hunter
I know. I'm just saying if you pass on four more games, I'm just going to start talking to myself.
- [17:15]
Chad Millman
Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins. Dolphins are four and a half point underdogs at home. This is how bad the Chargers looked against the Commanders. The early moves in this game were on the Dolphins pushing the line from five and a half to four and a half. Not, not a huge move. Five is a dead number. But early moves are usually going to be made by professional betters. So that is an interesting indicator to me. In addition to all the O line injuries the Chargers have, they're now going to be without Omarion Hampton, who's on injured reserve. What do we think. What do we think would need to happen for Miami to keep this game close and cover four and a half points?
- [18:05]
Simon Hunter
I can't believe they moved the Chargers to four here in Jersey. I might be a sucker. I kind of like the Chargers and this number. Like, isn't this a great match for them going against a horrible Miami secondary?
- [18:17]
Chad Millman
Yes. And a not good pass rush.
- [18:20]
Simon Hunter
Right. And not good pass rush. So I don't really get the professional love. I'm looking forward to hearing from a bunch of guys on this one because I. I haven't really bet this one because I really kind of thought I was going to be on Miami, especially, like Sunday night. Like you said, I think it was five and a half and it's like, okay, maybe this gets the six and we take a position here on Miami. But it's gone the other way and it's making me be like, okay, this is starting to become a Chargers number. So four, three and a half if it gets there. I'm really starting to like that charger side and trying not to overreact. Like you said, big injuries, obviously the rookie running back's a big deal, but I also think, like, it's just a plug and play with that run scheme. Like, the whole run scheme is based on safety is being pushed back because Herbert's so incredibly gifted at throwing the ball downfield. You're usually running against really weak boxes, so you're going to miss his speed. But I think the other guys they're bringing in there, I think they're about to plug and play. Like, I don't. I'm not trying to overreact too much of the rookie missing this game. It's the. My favorite thing I saw from a lot of Chargers fans was they have this unique opportunity with this team because this division feels like it's up for grabs. The Saints have a what, arguably one of the best centers in football. And Kamara, go give up whatever it takes. Go get the Saint Center. Go get Kamara. That. That's like, to me, this is like an easy play for the Chargers because even if the rookie comes back, you still have one of the best receiving backs in football that's on his way out of the Saints. Like, this is it for him. So I've loved that. A lot of people talking about it for the Chargers like that to me is a winning move from their front office. Your center is abysmally bad. Go get a center, fix that. Middle alt will be back soon enough. That could be a huge upgrade as Chargers team. So that's talking future plans. Just for this game though, I'm starting to really love this charger side and shocked because I really did think I'd be all over Miami, but this is moving too much. This Miami team is bad. We both agree this is a bad Miami team. And I don't know if you saw Mike McDonald walking back to the locker room that looked like a man that was totally done checked out. So this could another game where I'm betting all line like I'm going to take chargers -9 and a half. I'll take them at -13 and a half. This could easily be a hardball game where his team just rolls and just, you know, defense dominates this matchup.
- [20:33]
Chad Millman
Simon, I asked the question about why do we think, what do we think Miami needs to do to keep this game close and cover the four and a half Because I actually can't see a scenario.
- [20:44]
Simon Hunter
You never know. Tua. You never know.
- [20:46]
Chad Millman
But they're just not like the play calling isn't good enough. The confidence isn't good enough.
- [20:50]
Simon Hunter
Can't run the ball.
- [20:51]
Chad Millman
They can't run the ball.
- [20:52]
Simon Hunter
It's crazy.
- [20:53]
Chad Millman
And so like we saw it against the Panthers, like they had a 17 point lead. And even against the Panthers I kind of never thought it was a dead bet. I thought all right, it's like a coach in Canales who has kept this team moving forward. It's Bryce Young who seems to be unconscious when it comes to losing. Like he just doesn't seem to care. And that, that by the way plays into your argument for the Panthers against the Cowboys. But Miami, I looked at the play by play, every single drive between that 17 nothing lead and when they finally scored in the fourth quarter, three plays punt. Three plays punt. Three plays punt. They couldn't run the ball. It was short passes that were incomplete. It was a lot of penalties. It was the Miami team that is just not very well coached with not enough talent against a Chargers team that will be well coached. The number is shrinking.
- [21:42]
Simon Hunter
Off two losses.
- [21:42]
Chad Millman
Off two losses. Why wouldn't I like the Chargers in.
- [21:46]
Simon Hunter
This spot, love they were in sync.
- [21:48]
Chad Millman
I don't want to pass on every game.
- [21:50]
Simon Hunter
Well, we need one favorite. I'm glad at least we found a favorite to start this week where it's like if we get the three And a half. This will probably be an autoplay for contest, brother.
- [21:58]
Chad Millman
I got a whole bunch more favorites that I'm interested in, okay? Do not, do not worry about it. Seattle at Jacksonville. Dude, flip flopping away this game. It's like a fish out of water. Just flip and flop and flip and flop. Two nights ago, the Seahawks were one and a half point dogs. This moved off some money on Monday morning before the Jags Monday Night Football game against Kansas City. Then it moved again right after it moved to the Seahawks being favorites before the game yesterday. Then it moved again to the Seahawks as underdogs right after the Jags beat the Chiefs. I don't know how I don't love Seattle here. Like, I really want to see the practice reports because, like, last week they were without Julian Love, their safety, without Devin Witherspoon, their cornerback, without DeMarcus Lawrence, their defensive end. Tariq Wolin left the game with a concussion. He's not even that good. He's been getting burned all year. Then they have backups, and you could see the issues they were having in the secondary with the way the Bucks were just able to move the ball downfield in a shootout. But, like, I'm not back in Trevor Lawrence anymore. I feel like I got what I needed out of him. It's actually not that much of a mystery. He's incredibly talented, there's no doubt about it. And physically gifted. You watched him make that third and seventh throw to Brian Thomas in the last drive that was just perfect. You watched him make that play where he got tripped by his offensive lineman, got up, was panicked, and realized, oh, I can run because I'm six'6,230, and get into the end zone. Like, obviously the guy has physical gifts, but he's also the guy who gets these delay games that his coach seems to let him get the delay games and not take times that take timeouts as punishment. Like, I don't think he's a guy you can bet on in a regular basis if the number isn't perfect. So I kind of like Seattle here.
- [24:09]
Simon Hunter
That's going to be the square side for sure. Seahawks, I agree with you. I get what you're saying here, but this feels like another. Just like Monday night felt like a jack spot. This feels like another jack spot. Like you just said, those injuries, that's a big deal.
- [24:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's why I don't want to bet it yet. I mean, I'm there. I like Seattle if I can get the injury news that I want. But if not, it's not really a game that I feel comfortable betting.
- [24:35]
Simon Hunter
The issue there is, if that injury news comes out good, that number's going to flip again because the public, like you just said, they're going to be with you. Anyone that won on the Jags last night, they're not re betting. This Jags team here, they're happy investing that money into the Seahawks because I think they feel the same way as Chad that you got away with one. In their mind, Seahawks are a better team. You know, even though there's some type of weird voodoo magic going on this Jags team, I still don't think people are giving them enough credit for it. Where it's like that defense, those turnovers, a lot of that is coaching like him putting these guys in the right positions them to make that play. Like Lloyd cutting down on that Travis Kelsey. That's tape. Yeah, that's him up at the line and then he knows where Kelsey is and he's breaking left into it. And I love that whole play because it's like just pure athleticism. And a guy that, you know, has come out of nowhere here that's really shocked Row and really taking the Shaq defense to another level because if you get turnovers like that, which he keeps doing, like we see it wins these games. We were dead in that game. Like that Trevor Lawrence getting that ball smacked out at the one yard line. When you're like, Chad knows running a dog like that against Mahomes, you're usually not coming back. We needed that pick six desperately. So I get your hesitation from the Jags here, but that's going to be the sharp side like I know we get when I talk to people take calls this week. That'll be the side I. I'm with you. I wanted to be on the Seahawks, especially when I saw this line like you said yesterday them as a dog, I was like, oh my God, if the Jags get smoked, this is going to flip to minus 2 for the Seahawks team. It hasn't. It's been tons of money. It's coming on the Seahawks, but it's just held after like you said it did flip earlier. Now it's been back to this Jags team. So be, be careful people out there. This might be another, another week that this Jags are actually in a pretty good spot and the Seahawks are just too banged up. 1:00pm Starting that, that Florida sun, you don't want your backups being worn out in the second half, having to think that's again that's what a problem with These teams that go down to Florida, it's like not the first half. It's that second half where you're worn out and you're having to react and think. It's just a lot to ask of these backups are going to be starting in key positions for the Seahawks.
- [26:42]
Chad Millman
Maybe that's Trevor Lawrence's problem.
- [26:45]
Simon Hunter
The heat.
- [26:46]
Chad Millman
The heat and the thinking. The heat and the thinking. All the thinking is too. It's too much for Trevor.
- [26:53]
Simon Hunter
No, we were joking before the show. Like the Liam Komen punishing him, not calling timeouts when he knows the clock's going to zero. And I love it. It's like truly big brother, little brother, where they've had obviously hundreds of conversations. Yes, but him watching the game clock and he consistently keeps not doing it. And every time you see it, he's next to the ref too, and his arms are still crossed. Liam, it's like hilarious. You're just like, he's doing this on purpose. Like, even though in huge moments he's still doing it on purpose as well. Like, so I get your hesitation here, but yeah, for, for our show, I'm letting the people know. It's, it's going to be the square side taking that Seahawks side. Just be careful with it. It's, it's going to be one of like, there's a couple of public dogs this week that's one of going to be one of the bigger public dogs.
- [27:40]
Chad Millman
Oh, yeah. Well, look, you in trouble when you're betting on a game that's flipping back and forth and you feel like you're so excited because you're getting the team that you think is better as a one and a half point underdog. And like I, I, like I said, Chad's disciplined. Okay. So Chad doesn't just reach, he doesn't bet. As soon as he sees something thinking he's got an angle, Chad waits to get the full load of information. Chad's waiting to find out who's playing on the Seattle Seahawks defense before he makes a bet. Chad's no, Trevor. Chad can think and bet or not bet at the same exact time.
- [28:20]
Simon Hunter
We've hit our Chad limit.
- [28:23]
Chad Millman
Chad wants to talk about the Cleveland Browns at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers are five point favorites. I'm a little surprised this one has moved since Sunday night in the Steelers direction. It went from four and a half to five and a half and then finally found some, some pushback. My first instinct was that the Browns were the side, especially against Mike Tomlin, who as a short home favorite we've Just historically won like, you bet Mike Tomlin. Rah rah. Mike Tomlin is a dog on the road. You fade Mike Tomlin at home. The on the field situation might be too favorable for the Steelers to ignore. They've had two weeks to get healthy. Joey Porter's coming back. Jalen Warren's coming back. Alex Highsmith probably coming back. I do think he's a. He's a pivot point for the Steelers defensively, like they are a much, much better team when he's playing. I don't love Dylan Gabriel in his first official road game against the Steelers. Interesting spot. I can see. I can see why the number shot up a little bit more than I could on Sunday.
- [29:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it feels like it's my laziest bet of the week, but I talk a little bit on Sunday. How are you not on Pittsburgh? Here you have Cleveland, who's coming off. This is the third straight road game and it's like nightmare scenario. They third straight road game while playing really tough teams, right? Detroit Vikings, now a Pittsburgh team that's like Chad Check coming off an extended rest by week. It's like just brutal for the Browns. And you know, I like, like I said, I like to move to Dylan Gabriel. At the same time, it's another just bad spot for him. I know there are no good spots. You just got to play the games you're going to play as a rookie quarterback. But like you said, really tough coming into this game against a Pittsburgh defense that should have a lot of guys back. So if you're Pittsburgh, this is a get right spot. You know, the only thing we can really do like we always do with Cleveland is, well, they got that D line match against a Pittsburgh questionable O line against a quarterback that folds quick like he does not want to take any type of hit. If there's any type of chance, he just falls down, which is the right move, in my opinion for Rogers, that's live for the next play. Like that's what he should be doing. I can't lie to myself. Even my model couldn't lie to me, tell me to take Cleveland here. So, unfortunately, yeah, it's. I'm on more chalk. I want to be on it because there are still some fives out there for Cleveland, even though Hard Rock's at four. Four for the Steelers. So if you do like Cleveland, you can join the pros and find that line out there, but it's another side. I feel like the public is right. I feel like the Steelers are right and once again, very, very lazy it feels like of me. But the rest of spirit has to be a factor here. That has to matter.
- [31:11]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [31:12]
Simon Hunter
Like these. This ain't week two. This is. You're deep into the season now, week six. The guys have been through it. Right. We joke every time that. But it's real. Sundays are. You're going through car crashes. Like you're literally what these people put their bodies through is insane. And you can't make enough of how big of a deal it is to be on three straight road games and then go for an international coming back to play his Pittsburgh team. So. Yeah, again, Chalky bet. But I'll take that. Steelers minus four.
- [31:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah. It became more clear in the light of day that the Steelers felt like the right side. I'm glad we're getting a little bit of a lower number now. I'm curious to see what sharp calls will say on Thursday. But we are in agreement. It's feeling very chalky. It's feeling a little bit like a couple weeks ago where we liked a lot of the favorites LA Rams. By the way, you said your model can't lie to you. What do you have this model that.
- [32:08]
Simon Hunter
Right where it opened. So I had it at five and a half and obviously it's come down from there.
- [32:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:12]
Simon Hunter
Like you said, it's the professional. The professional money is coming on this Cleveland team.
- [32:19]
Chad Millman
The Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens are seven and a half point underdogs. I mean this team, I, I it's so hard to handicap this game because you'd of course want to play the Ravens. But dogs after a blowout historically the right side the line will be so much higher than it should be. But, but is Kyle Hamilton gonna play? Is Roquan Smith gonna play? Is Marlon Humphrey gonna play? Like that's as big a reason why the Ravens got blown out this past Sunday as Lamar Jackson not playing. How do you even model this one?
- [33:13]
Simon Hunter
It's honestly impossible because it's everything's going to favorite this Rams team. Especially from the viewpoint of like you said, we don't know who's playing for this team. Like I'm trying to find it right now. Almost positive. I had a text from a guy who works for the Ravens where they basically view it as they know how bad it is there right now. But they're in a fortunate spot where this after this game, I believe their following weeks of bye week and they're viewing it as like, okay, if they can get all these guys back after that it is okay. So I Did get that email. So they basically view it as if these, they're not going to rush these guys back, right? You just talked about they're all pros. This isn't just guys are trying to get back. These are like the cream of the crop. The best players in their entire team. Maybe they forced their way back for this game, but without Lamar feels like a lost hope, right? Like you just saw that offense had no rhythm, no function, just tons of three and outs. Houston's a really good defense, obviously better arguably than this Rams team. But you get this Rams game, you lose it, you have your buy in week seven and then you basically have Bears, Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, the Jets, Cincy. So it's like to me it's like you just when that guy said that, I was like, okay, that makes sense. That's the view of the front office. What will the coaches do? Will they protect their players and hold them back? Because it is a lot to ask a guy, a pro, to rest, to get right and not because these guys do want to play. Even at 70%. They're just, that's what makes them the best. They are just these freak athletes that they want to play. And that really jumped out to me. So another game just like Denver where I'll probably be a little bit of a coward, just take the money line I guess and avoid the number. Because we've seen this Rams team historically not really blow teams out. They're just not like we joked earlier in the year, they blew out Tennessee. It was the first time McVay and Stafford had actually like beat a team by double digits on the road. So they're just not a team that really does that. So it's another incredibly public side. Like me and Chad know, right, this is going to be all, all chart, all Rams, I should say money. So yeah, I, I, I'll, I'll end up having this in a teaser or something. But this is another game where I, it's hard to have a strong take on it where it's like obviously we want to be on the Ravens bounce back spot, yada, yada yada. I just think they're thinking by week and that schedule coming up where there's a reason I think they're still favored in this division, like they're just the books know what they have upcoming and that this is going to break right for this Ravens team if they can get Lamar back and get those guys back. So yeah, I'll, if you want to bet their division odds, I keep being patient. I think they'll lose this one. You might be able to get even better odds after Pittsburgh wins and they get another big lead in this division.
- [36:04]
Chad Millman
Yeah, there have been a lot of reports out there that the Ravens are thinking about what you're talking about and holding Lamar back for one more week because they know they have the buy and just getting them completely healthy and then treating sort of the second half of the season as a new season and taking advantage of the fact that they play. No, they play no. 1. Right.
- [36:22]
Simon Hunter
Have you looked at it like the literally the hardest game they have is at Green Bay, right?
- [36:25]
Chad Millman
They got no. 1 and they got no. 1. And two years ago, the AFC north had four teams that had season win totals of eight or higher. Now they've got a team in the Bengals that is flailing. We'll discuss a team in the Browns that obviously has no quarterback and a team in the Steelers that you know is mediocre at best. So they're still in a really good position. They're being smart, they're being prudent. If they keep Lamar out, keep these guys out, get through the buy.
- [36:54]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
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- [37:44]
Chad Millman
First deposit payable in bonus bets.
- [37:47]
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- [38:23]
Chad Millman
Arizona at Indianapolis. If you missed it on Sunday night, Simon had an epic rant about the Arizona Cardinals. We're gonna replay that for you.
- [38:40]
Simon Hunter
But I'm legit dead inside. This is going to be a painful podcast. I can't believe what I just watched. That Cardinals game. I don't even know if I can. Again, I don't know if I could talk about it yet because it's just ridiculous. The running back for the Cardinals, he dropped the ball into the end zone and they said it wasn't a touchdown. And then they basically picked off Cam Ward and made a football move and fumbled the ball and they recovered it for a touchdown. Tennessee 21 6. They're going to score that touchdown. So it'd been 286 with like 10 minutes to go. Kyler Murray's a loser. Gannon's a loser. That's a loser organization. Cardinal fans. I feel so bad for you guys. Just losers. Top to top to bottom. Embarrassing organization. My God. Just losers. Cardinals losers. Kyler, I would. I would literally release him today. Just Guy. Guy puts up 21 points and then just looks disinterested for a whole second half. He's just the worst. They're just the worst. So, yeah, fold. Don't exist anymore. Tomorrow. I hope I wake up tomorrow, they said. Yep. 31 teams. NFL. Arizona literally folded overnight. Good. Let it be done.
- [39:49]
Chad Millman
The New York jets were plus two and a half against the Dallas Cowboys. It was astonishing how pathetic they are.
- [39:57]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I mean, not as pathetic as Michael Bidwell, the principal owner of the Arizona Cardinals. Just fold, Buddy, if you hear this fold up shop, it's over.
- [40:08]
Chad Millman
Listen, the Arizona Cardinals are plus five and a half at Indianapolis next week. We know Kyler's great when he's on the road too soon.
- [40:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I mean, that's line will be taken down. The Colts are lucky. They have a bye week now because Cardinals won't exist. So it doesn't matter what the line is.
- [40:27]
Chad Millman
We do have some people basically feeling the same way as you. Bigness wants to know, should we make the Cardinals stay in the field so everyone can throw trash at them until they get too tired to continue?
- [40:42]
Simon Hunter
No, it's too nice. You got to get. We should get a herb out there. Make them skate from blue line to blue line. And they keep asking them what team they play for. Those bitches bring out. Bring in the ice. Sick of them.
- [40:54]
Chad Millman
All right, Simon, I know. I know who your shame on you is.
- [41:02]
Simon Hunter
I'll just be quick. Arizona shame. NFL officiating in that game. Shame. Just the whole thing, it's shame, shame, shame.
- [41:11]
Chad Millman
I'm gonna give you a chance to find some joy in the week.
- [41:16]
Simon Hunter
My hero of the day will be my mother. Today's her birthday.
- [41:20]
Chad Millman
Come on.
- [41:21]
Simon Hunter
Love you, mom. Shout out to all the moms.
- [41:23]
Chad Millman
Oh, that's beautiful. That's nice of you.
- [41:27]
Simon Hunter
I'm sorry I was never born.
- [41:36]
Chad Millman
Simon, any regrets from the rant on Sunday night?
- [41:40]
Simon Hunter
Zero.
- [41:43]
Chad Millman
Sunday night you did muster the strength to say that you were leaning into Indy at five. At Hard Rock, there was a four and a half available. It's now jumped up to six. I think the true line should be Colts seven.
- [42:00]
Simon Hunter
It's fair. Yeah, the line's probably still value on this team, but this is going to be what in every parlay, every teaser. Who was betting Arizona after last week? Nobody. So if you like Arizona, you can be patient. I'm seeing six and a half already, Pop, so I think your estimate's right. Probably should be seven. They'll probably get there eventually, but. Yeah, no, no read on him for me. To me, it was a Colts line. It was a good bet, good number. They're once again opening line undervalued this Colts team. I mean it feels like every week this year it's been that way. So it's going to go the other way for this Colts team. Right. They can't keep playing at such this, this offense can't keep functioning. Such a high level candidate. So that's, that's the only fear in my mind I'm taking this cold side is that when is that game going to be. Daniel Jones tried to do it against the Rams. He tried to throw like three picks and the Rams just couldn't catch it. And that game, he still should have won by a touchdown, if not more. So yeah, this Colts team just might be a juggernaut. I'm surely not standing in front of it back in this Arizona team in no world. So I'll join you on the six. We'll see what they end up with the contest line. But five and a half conversation can be had. Six and a half. I probably would pass.
- [43:15]
Chad Millman
I don't think Daniel Jones is. Everyone talks about him and everyone's like, oh, Daniel Jones, mvp, blah blah blah. This is about Jonathan Taylor. Like he's leading the league in rushing, which is great. He's also leaves the league in rushing yards after contact. He's just making hard for defenses to get off the field. And to me that's always. These are big guys, his offensive line and like They've built a line and a system that allows him to thrive and makes this offense so good. Right now, it's making Daniel Jones look better, but also helps minimize the opportunities for mistakes from Daniel Jones. That's really why I like the Colts. Like, I don't like him at six and a half. I bet him at four and a half on Sunday, but I don't hate him at five and a half. If the line sort of solidifies for.
- [44:11]
Simon Hunter
Us, I'd be shocked if it comes down. I just, I don't know what professionals put in heavy money. This Arizona, even though it is probably the right side, it's like that everything, it's all dysfunctional. They had like a team meeting because the coach is punching guys on the sideline and it's just.
- [44:25]
Chad Millman
And then he's apologizing in a press conference.
- [44:29]
Simon Hunter
It's just, it's the low of lows and it's like, all right, if they had a leader at the head coach or at the quarterback, maybe you back in believing it. But I just don't believe in either of those guys right now.
- [44:41]
Chad Millman
New England at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are three and a half point underdogs. Look, the Saints had a great comeback against the Giants, so people love the Saints right now. The Patriots had a huge win against the Buffalo Bills and in prime time. So everyone's loving Drake May right now. I got an opinion on this game.
- [45:06]
Simon Hunter
Interesting. I do too. Chad, Give me them Saints plus three and a half. Simon says.
- [45:12]
Chad Millman
Oh, boy.
- [45:15]
Simon Hunter
Call me Simon.
- [45:16]
Chad Millman
What do you want?
- [45:18]
Simon Hunter
I want to play a game.
- [45:20]
Chad Millman
What kind of game?
- [45:21]
Simon Hunter
Simon says.
- [45:23]
Chad Millman
Simon says, presented by Hard Rock Bet the Saints plus three and a half. Give me your explanation.
- [45:36]
Simon Hunter
Pretty simple. The general public, the squares will be loving this Patriots team and they love it so much they've already bumped it. This was three. They bumped it at three and a half. I'll take that value on an undervalued Saints team that will be undervalued every week. That's just the way it is. Especially against the team that, you know, won a game that, let's be honest, they had no right winning. Probably you could even argue covering like it just so many things went their way and that's why I felt very such a great hire for them because that to me was a variable win. Like the, the way the defense plays. The, you know, Drake May had some huge big time throws, but it was also, you know, a game that, that's, to me, that was the worst game the Bills could have possibly played. Like that between the turnovers, the penalties, all of it, they just, I, I would burn those jerseys and never wear them again. Those things just felt cursed whatever it was. It felt. I, I don't. Again, I don't know, it just felt like the ball was super slippery to them on that jersey and whatever it is, I know it's stupid conspiracy but I would, I would not be wearing those again. They do look cool. But you're getting a highly overvalued New England team. I mean the victory laps guys are taking right now. Andre.
- [46:59]
Chad Millman
Oh yeah.
- [47:00]
Simon Hunter
Drake May's top 10 quarterback MVP.
- [47:03]
Chad Millman
Drake may play at an MVP level.
- [47:05]
Simon Hunter
So these guys are all going to retire because they can still get this morning. You can still get plus 350 on New England to win that division. So all of you guys, I'm happy for you. You're all going to retire to your Nantucket and good for you. So yeah, it's peak right now for this team in New England. It's not a great match for them honestly. Like this Saints team, we talked about it. I think their defense is better than people perceived. They have a lot of veterans offensively, I believe they found an identity and you can attack this Patriots defense like this Patriots defense is not good. We've seen that this year that you know, they to me have been fortunate like the, the Saints are not a good team. Right. So this is another matchup. You expect variable to be a big advantage here, but to me it's on the road in a spot where this Saints team, I don't think they're going to get too high from that vet that last win. Like I said, they're a veteran team that's believed themselves. They've been really good at home this season which was another reason I like backing them against that Giants team. And at the end of the day I think this is going to be another square vers sharp like it's going to be. The squares are going to be on New England. It's going to be the public side. Like you already can see the numbers, all the money, all the tickets have come in on this New England side at some books or have even touched four. But it immediately got bet down by the professional. So I'd be shocked if this sits at 3. I think we could see movement going in that this could drop to three once more professional money comes in because like I said, I think more guys are adjusting their model to Dispenser Rattler. He's. He's better than I certainly had him graded coming to the season he's improved every week. And yeah, like I said that that Giants game, should they have won 26 to 14. No, they shouldn't have blown him out. But it's nice to see the public's not overreacting to that. They're overreacting to that Patriots win and drinking the Drake May Kool Aid. So this would be a statement win. Honestly, once again, this bridge team, if they can show me they're mature enough to handle a big win on Sunday night and go on the road on a short week now because they did play, you know, their game ended at what, 11:30 midnight Sunday night. That's, that's a tough short week travel to go play this Saints team. So yeah, it's just about the number. If this was two and a half, I'd have no issue being okay with this, this Patriot side. But once again, another game, I have a minus one on the Saints. So if I have it off by four and a half, I got to make it. Simon says I can't avoid it. I hate it. I'm all in. Once again, two weeks in a row on the Saints team. But it's just playing the numbers. It's a good number on an undervalued Saints team that I just don't think the public's come around on them yet. So I'm getting a good number here. Just because the Patriots love is it's peak right now. It's, it's insane. The stuff I've been seeing.
- [49:50]
Chad Millman
I wonder, you could look at it as the Saint being loved and the Patriots defense actually being undervalued because don't forget, they played the first, what was it, four games without Christian Gonzalez, who made multiple key plays in that defensive backfield for the Patriots against the Bills. The Patriots top eight in EPA per play, top eight in EPA per pass success rate, Saints defense, bottom seven in the league in all of those categories. The line actually did get down to two and a half on Sunday night and then got that back up immediately even before the Patriots won. So there was some, I think sharp sentiment on the Patriots at the two and a half. And like I think Christian, Christian Gonzalez in the backfield is a bit of a difference maker here.
- [51:01]
Simon Hunter
So what are you trying to say, Chad? Do you like the Saints? You haven't said exactly what you're trying to say. Stop talking around it. Give us a pick here.
- [51:07]
Chad Millman
I like the Patriots.
- [51:08]
Simon Hunter
Good, good spot. Hopefully sharper square.
- [51:13]
Chad Millman
By the way, you seem like you're just, you're so mad about something today. Why are you in such a bad mood?
- [51:19]
Simon Hunter
Bad mood? Why did you keep saying lean? That wasn't me being a mad mood. It's just me saying, you're on a pic show. Give out pics.
- [51:26]
Chad Millman
I'm saying I'm giving an opinion right now. And my opinion is you're being a dick.
- [51:30]
Simon Hunter
This is me being nice. So you want me to be a dick? I would say you're a square. Square. Being on the Patriots here and. Okay, I get it. You're drinking the Drake made kool Aid.
- [51:39]
Chad Millman
I'm not drinking the drink. I'm not drinking the Drake made kool Aid. I'm actually thinking I don't think the Saints are as good as they. Everyone thinks they are because they beat up on the Giants. You do. You do. You keep saying their defense is so much better.
- [51:53]
Simon Hunter
People love the Saints right now. It's like, dude, they're getting 19% of the bets. Who loves the Saints?
- [51:58]
Chad Millman
Well, you do.
- [52:00]
Simon Hunter
All right, But I'm saying that's a small group.
- [52:03]
Chad Millman
Well, we're going to agree to disagree.
- [52:07]
Simon Hunter
Good.
- [52:07]
Chad Millman
Tennessee at Las Vegas. Las Vegas Raiders, minus four and a half. The main question is, is Brock Bowers playing in this game? Because to me, Chad's choice is the Las Vegas Raiders.
- [52:26]
Simon Hunter
Wow. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
- [52:33]
Chad Millman
A choice. We can't run from who we are.
- [52:36]
Simon Hunter
Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
- [52:43]
Chad Millman
We're changing the name. It used to be Chad's love. Starting now, we're calling it Chad's Choice. The Las Vegas Raiders. Look, they're coming off a blowout. Lowest of the low. The entire world is questioning Geno. I'm getting Pete Carroll against Brian Callahan. I'm getting the Raiders at home where they're going to be more comfortable. I'm getting Tennessee thinking, oh, my God, we actually escaped and got a win. Third straight road game for a team that has won and covered killer sports. 33, 68 and three against the spread. Give me the Las Vegas Raiders, minus four and a half.
- [53:31]
Simon Hunter
Chad, this is the greatest bet ever. You're the smartest person I've ever met.
- [53:36]
Chad Millman
What do you really think, Simon?
- [53:39]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. Like. Yeah, I'll join you because it probably is the right thought. We should be on the Raiders here, but we're going to be miserable. Gino Smith is a train wreck right now. I can't get around.
- [53:49]
Chad Millman
He's a train wreck.
- [53:51]
Simon Hunter
The number feels priced right, like it should have come down because it's like who, who is.
- [53:58]
Chad Millman
Well, it has come down. It was five and a half. It went down to five and is now at four and a half, which is why I'm betting it.
- [54:03]
Simon Hunter
It's like I agree with that movement though. I'm shocked when it be invested in this. I can't believe this is going to be on our TV possibly come Sunday. I was hoping just to avoid it. It's like because my, my instincts what exactly what Chad is doing here. It's like this Raiders team, this feels like rock bottom and you're selling a Tennessee team that is the luckiest team in football. So I get it where you're coming from. I don't hate to bet. I'm just so terrified of it. So gross.
- [54:33]
Chad Millman
That's why we do it. Sometimes you gotta do gross things when you're betting. I don't know if you're familiar with that, Simon.
- [54:39]
Simon Hunter
You do.
- [54:41]
Chad Millman
Las Vegas Raiders minus four and a half. San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay as a three point favorite actually moved down to three. Went back. Moved down to two and a half. Went back up to three. You like Tampa Bay on Sunday night. You've been hammering the Bucks all season.
- [54:58]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [54:59]
Chad Millman
To success.
- [55:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, luckily. Thank you.
- [55:02]
Chad Millman
We don't know about Purdy, we don't know about Pierslaw, we don't know about Jennings yet. We do know Bosa was out for the Niners on Thursday night and that their pressures dropped to the lowest they've had since the first game of the 2024 season. So whatever they thought they might be able to figure out and whatever we were betting on, whatever anyone was betting on with Robert Saleh, it just didn't happen because they have not been able to get any pressure without Bosa. Do you still feel strongly by the 10th Bay Buccaneers? This essentially is saying, okay, the Bucks are going to do what they've done four other times this year and win a game in the final seconds.
- [55:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, right. It's just crazy to me. The professional early money just. They really like the 49ers side. So it's another game. I'm just worried I'm missing something. Like you said, I've just been too high on the Bucs all season and it's been working out for me. But you know, you saw in that Eagles game, it can go sideways and I guess that's what they're thinking here, that this defense, this might be a good matchup for the 49ers to get right. But it's like still feels like the 49ers are very banged up. They're coming off a very high, emotional divisional win. Should have rested, right. Getting guys healthy, getting them back. But it's like, I don't know. There's something about Baker and this team and this number. It's like, you're giving me the three. That's. That's the fear here. It's like, if this is mine, I don't know, it sounds stupid, but if this was minus three and a half, I honestly would be more confident on this book side because it's like, that's a 49ers line. That, to me, would have been. Everybody wouldn't pilot in on that 49ers side. And that would have showed me that, okay, this Bucs team is as good as I think they are, and I'm grading them as. But right now, I think I might be a little overrated in them, and I'm just going to be patient here. I bet the Bucs took the two and a half. I'd still take the three off. Chance that Purdy does miss again. And you have Mac Jones, who. I mean, he was working on one leg at the end of that game.
- [57:03]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [57:05]
Simon Hunter
Not a great ideal spot for him against a defensive front that they have there in the Bucks. So, interesting game. Like, this is a couple of good games this week. Obviously a lot of stinkers, but this is probably one of the top two, three games this week. You know, both these guys are 4 and 1. Like, pretty insane what the 49ers will be able to do with all the injuries they've sustained. And the question is, what am I missing here? Because doesn't this feel like a letdown spot for this 49ers team? So I'm shocked to see so much professional money and love for this 49ers team without knowing, like Chad said, if Purdy's going to play, if Jennings is going to play, if Ricky Piercel is going to play, like, those are big, big names. That's. That's interesting. This line's moved the way it has.
- [57:45]
Chad Millman
Well, that, to me, is basically everyone saying they're not buying the bucks. And we've seen it every single week. People have been betting against the bucks because how do you keep betting on a team that keeps winning literally in the last second of the game? You just have to assume that the tide is going to turn and. And that everything that has been happening, there's going to be regression. So people. It's like betting the Jets. Like, it can't be as bad for the Bucks. It can't be as good. So that's what everyone is betting against. I totally get why people wouldn't want to be piling onto the bucks and why they would be betting the Niners. No matter who they think is playing or they just think that. That Brock Purdy is going to play again because he did play the week before, sat out because there was soreness, they're being extra cautious. They were giving him sort of the time because they had the whole team had the opportunity to get some extra rest. Kind of makes sense to me. I just want to know who the hell I'm betting on now. Am I betting on Brock Purdy? Am I betting on Mac Jones?
- [58:42]
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
- [58:43]
Chad Millman
Simon. The Cincinnati Bengals are visiting the Green Bay packers, and the spread is 14 points. You have been begging me to fade the Bengals. They are going against a rested Packer team that has played two really bad games. You think you're mean. Matt LaFleur gets such a good angry face. The guy is so competitive that when reporters asked him about facing his brother Mike, who is the offensive coordinator for the Rams a couple years ago, and they said, who do you think your parents are going to be rooting for? Matt LaFleur didn't sort of swat it away, smile.
- [59:33]
Simon Hunter
Ha ha ha.
- [59:34]
Chad Millman
You know, he's like, they're going to be rooting for the guy that bought them a house, and that's me. Matt LaFleur's teams have stunk the past two weeks. They've had a chance to get better over the past 10 days. They're playing a Bengals team. That is horrific. The packers have not been able to get their running game right. They're playing a Bengals team that cannot stop the run since 2004. You're going to love this. Favorites of more than 12 points in their first five games of the season. 43, 22 and one against the spread.
- [60:20]
Simon Hunter
Love it. Yeah, I don't disagree with the floor either, though. I mean, facts, I guess, can be mean, but that just sounds like a fact to me. I don't know if he was being mean.
- [60:29]
Chad Millman
By the way, to be clear, I'm on the packers here. If I'm not being clear enough for you, if you're afraid I'm only giving a lean. I'm saying I'm on the packers here.
- [60:39]
Simon Hunter
There. You're getting the show now. You say the team and then you give out the number. It's. It's pretty simple. Green Bay. I don't know, Chad. Are we really doing it? It's 14 and a half now at a bunch of books. So yeah, I'm sure the Bengals will eventually get stops and score touchdowns and not throw. I mean at one point I thought someone posted this stat of like Chase had. He might have had three tackles and three catches or something insane like that. Like he was leading the team in catches and tackles. I saw that and I can't believe it was real.
- [61:09]
Chad Millman
I thought it was like a fake tweet.
- [61:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, no, Browning's that bad, so I don't know. I feel bad for him. It's such a terrible spot for the Bengals. Like even last week it felt like they're going to steal get that back door. And the Lions just never let up. They just kept putting it on them. This Green Bay team is not that same team. But like Chad just said, they haven't looked good defensively, I should say, in these last couple of weeks. So you would see this being a really big bounce back day for their defense. And offensively you just. How do they not move the ball at will? Like lafleur schemes it up so well, good defense, let alone a terrible defense that looks like they've already packed their bags for the season. So even more bizarre, this team is still favorite to win the division over Cleveland, which I just think is really funny by the sports books, just how much they hate Cleveland. But yeah, I, I'm with you. Like, I don't know if we'll get there in our contest. So it's a weird game to even talk about or like, like, but like I feel like you're on the same page as me. Like you just have to bet these big numbers against the Cincy team till they show you something at least two, three weeks in a row. So we're not even at week one yet. We're like, I'm being scared of betting against the Bengals. I'm just going to keep rolling with it. The number can't get big enough, but the books are pushing it. Like this is insane. Being at 14 and a half at a lot of books, but 14 at Hard Rock, that's pretty shocking. But again, feels warranted. That's how bad this Bengals team has looked this year.
- [62:35]
Chad Millman
What's weird to me is why are we so comfortable betting against the Bengals but we have been afraid to bet against the Titans in the exact same position in big numbers. Like a team that we know isn't very good, The Bengals, we have no problem. The Titans, like for a season. Plus, yeah, we've been afraid to do it. Except for this week when it's Chad's choice.
- [63:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's tough.
- [63:02]
Chad Millman
It's time for our primetime spotlight. Simon, what, what time is it? Prime time.
- [63:08]
Simon Hunter
What timing.
- [63:10]
Chad Millman
It's prime time and about time.
- [63:13]
Simon Hunter
Best of you.
- [63:15]
Chad Millman
We know everyone's gonna bet the Sunday night Football game. The Monday night football games. They're the island games. They're the catnip. Even if we don't put them in the contest, they call out to all of us. You want to bet them? We want to help you. We're going to talk about them right now. Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City is a two point favorite Sunday Night Football. This numbers move this number's move from one and a half to two since the Jags beat the Chiefs last night. Here's my honest question for you. Do you believe everything is back to form with the Chiefs and the Lions, meaning Kansas City is the team that can score at will. The offense is rolling. The defense is rounding in a form they're going to be one of the top T3 teams in the AFC. Do you believe the Lions have picked it up where they left off last year and that Week 1 game against the packers was an aberration? Is that where we think these two teams are right now?
- [64:08]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'd say it's a fair assessment.
- [64:11]
Chad Millman
So I think, I think we have a legit rock and hard place here because Jared Goff, and we'll talk about this throughout the week, he's a covering machine except when he's on the road on grass and Mahomes is a covering machine as a favorite of less than 3.
- [64:28]
Simon Hunter
I know I said it. I hated it. I saw what was going to happen Sunday night and I hate it where it's like me, Chad are going to have to be in the Chiefs. This probably have to be in our contest. And it's I know the books keep putting us in these positions. It's like they keep undervaluing this Chiefs team in certain spots, especially at home. This feels like it's no different than that Ravens game where it's like the public is going to totally believe one side and not trust or believe in this Chiefs team where we said it even when the Chiefs were at their lowest point, the books had held firm. I felt like the, I think 10 to 1 or 11 to 1 I saw for chief super bowl odds that was pretty impressive. When you look back on this team that was like totally dysfunctional, falling apart. But like you said, they're getting pieces back like worthy, he's still not right. Like that ankle kept popping that game and that is an issue. But, you know, this is their last game before Rice comes back, so some people might not want to bet this because of that. And they're like, well, I still think the Chiefs have a ways to go. They're not fully formed yet. I still think it's going to hamper their offense. That's fair. But this just feels like a chief spot playing against a Detroit team that has been rolling. But like we said, who have they really played? They have not faced a comparable defense at all. And, you know, as good as the Browns are defensively, you saw that turf. It's just different. You're on a track, and that's what this Detroit team is. They're just all these little speedsters. So I'm excited to see what their identity is going to be this game, because Detroit, to win this game, this will be a Montgomery Gibbs game. Like, Kenny, run the ball down this Chiefs team's throat and control the clock and the ball and not let Mahomes get into rhythm. Because we've seen it like when Mahomes gets in a rhythm like he did against the Jags, what was that, 14 points? If like in a blink of the eye. But once they had him off tilt a little bit, had him on the bench for a while, you saw he just never got back into sync in that game. So, yeah, this is a Chiefs number. It's. It's still two at Hard Rock, so I'm going to still grab it. I really did think this was going to flip. I thought even. Especially after they lost, I was like, oh, my God, the public's the professionals. They will come in so heavy on this Lions team without looking at the numbers that every week the Chiefs. I mean, you want to talk EPA per play, their EPA play has gone way up over the course of the season. Defensively, I still actually have some questions about Spags and his defense. I just. They don't look as fast getting to the ball. I know everyone saw the Chris Jones film on that final touchdown, Trevor Lawrence of him walking around like, disinterested, not looking lost. But I don't know, like, I'm not trying to take too much, take too much away from that one play. And if anything, it's going to have him be even more fired up, motivated in this game. Chris Jones. So, yeah, this is pretty wild spot, like, short week for the Chiefs. I just can't believe it. This number is what it is like, again, trying to trust the numbers. And this is a Chiefs number to back this Chiefs team here. But I'm not gonna lie. It feels like every ounce of me wants to be on Detroit and believes more in Detroit right now. But it's like I'm clearly missing something that professionals and bookmakers alike are seeing on this chief side.
- [67:42]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the number as we're talking is moving from two to two and a half.
- [67:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [67:48]
Chad Millman
So who knows? Maybe it's just going to get to three. And at that point, we want to play the Lions. But, you know, I don't know that we have to commit to it right now because I gotta.
- [67:58]
Simon Hunter
I think I do it to the people. I gotta. I gotta tell them, you just gotta take the Chiefs here. There's just something fishy going on this line. And don't try to be you're not smart in the books. Don't. Don't take Detroit. Something's going on here.
- [68:10]
Chad Millman
So you're saying the way the book.
- [68:13]
Simon Hunter
Even if it gets the three, I wouldn't take Detroit. I know something's going on here, brother. I don't know what it is. I'm gonna try to get to the bottom of it, but, man, I cannot get over.
- [68:23]
Chad Millman
It is weird that it's moved from one and a half to two to two and a half since the Chiefs.
- [68:28]
Simon Hunter
Lost last year and Detroit's taking all the money. Yeah. Something's going on.
- [68:35]
Chad Millman
That makes no sense.
- [68:36]
Simon Hunter
It does, though. So that's what I'm going to try to find out. It's crazy.
- [68:41]
Chad Millman
All right. Buffalo at Atlanta. Atlanta is a three and a half point dog at Hard Rock. Four and a half at other places. And, and for it some places, like, there's clearly money coming in on Atlanta.
- [68:53]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [68:54]
Chad Millman
I think the biggest factor here has to be the Bill's defense. Right. And specifically their rush defense. Allegedly. Ed Oliver is coming back this week. I think that makes a big difference. Really, really big difference for them. Matt Milano re injured. His pec may not be playing. Look, the. The Bills at this point have given up the most rushes of 10 yards or more in the NFL. Success rate. Terrible against the run. They're giving up a first down or a touchdown literally on 33% of their rushing place. Could this be a Bijan Robinson prime time breakout domination game? The Falcons rely more on him than the 5050 split they've been doing. Run pass with Michael Penix and get smart. Keep the clock running, keep the game close. Eileen, Falcons here.
- [69:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I like the Falcons. Like coming in, I was like, I'd be shocked if I was going to be on them. I could see myself and my model like in the Bills and then you dive into it and what you just said, so true. It's like can the Bills defense cover these type of numbers against high powered offenses? Which Atlanta you can have questions about Penix when all the guys are healthy. Appendix doesn't have a terrible pass rush to worry about. He gets in rhythm. He's good. Like he can push the ball downfield and use his weapons. And we talked about Bajan Robinson. You could say he's the top three running back right now in football. The way he's been playing this season. Like he's been as good as Penix has played in certain games. It's the offense still runs through Robinson. Totally Ed Oliver, big, big deal to me. That's, that's, that's the type of guy that could maybe flip me to this Buffalo side. But I'm with Chad. You sit here right now. I like Atlanta. Like you said one, one very, very public book. You can still get plus four and a half.
- [70:46]
Chad Millman
I think you got to grab the four and a half.
- [70:48]
Simon Hunter
I'll do it like I'm with you on it. It's like that's a key number, a big number. If I want to buy to my position later and be on this Bill side. If it does get to three, I can do that then. But as we sit here right now on Tuesday, yeah, I'm totally agree with Chad. It feels like the Atlanta side's the right side at that number.
- [71:04]
Chad Millman
Last game, another Monday Night Football game. The Falcons and the Bills are Monday night. The Bears and the Commanders are Monday night. Commanders are plus four or minus four. For longtime listeners of the show. Before there was the rant by Simon on the Cardinals, there was the breakdown by me when I lost it as we were live on the air last November. No, October. Watching the Commanders beat the Bears in a wild ending, it was painful. I had not watched that Hail Mary play by Jayden Daniels until this morning. Doing research for this show.
- [71:57]
Simon Hunter
That was research. What'd you want to see?
- [71:59]
Chad Millman
I just wanted because I wanted to remind myself of how bad it was because it was such an epic breakdown. Like it wasn't just the Hail Mary. The Bears not covering the sidelines so the commanders could get 15 more yards and be able to snap the ball from the 50 instead of the 35. And then Eberflu was trying to say we talked about it. We decided not to do it because he's a jackass. But then, then the Commanders being in the position to throw the Hail Mary. Jayden Daniels scrambled a combined 40 yards sort of in the pocket, moving around, waiting for his guys to get downfield and to be able to throw the ball. He thundered the ball, threw the ball 65 yards in the air. At that moment, the Bears had a. The commanders had a 3% chance of winning. Except the analytics were not accounting for the fact that Tyreek Stevenson was already celebrating and actually wasn't guarding the player he was supposed to guard. So the Commanders win that game. After that game, Jaden Daniels becomes the anointed one. They go on to the NFC title game. The Bears lose 10 games in a row, and the whole narrative about Caleb Williams being terrible starts. When I watched it, I actually was okay because I felt like we're out of that pathetic stage, and I felt like we're moving on. We found the person we're supposed to be with. Everyone's doing great. We got over it. It actually wasn't as painful as I thought it would be. And so give me the Bears plus four. Rock and roll.
- [73:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And a quick aside note. One book has flipped to Seahawks now minus one and a half favorites. Jacks plus one and a half dog.
- [73:54]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [73:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Pretty. Pretty shocking. Back to this Bears game. I'm right there with you. What is this line? You can get four and a half right now in this Bears team.
- [74:05]
Chad Millman
It makes no sense.
- [74:07]
Simon Hunter
Another public dog that I'm worried is a trap that I am not. I'm overrating this Bears team somehow, which I don't know how I am. It's like, why is this number not three at best? At best, three and a half. The four and a half. It feels egregious, this total disrespect to what the Bears have done this season. Total overreaction to what Washington did to that Chargers team that we are.
- [74:32]
Chad Millman
That, to me, is what it is.
- [74:33]
Simon Hunter
It could be. But at the same time, the books don't overreact. So the fact they're taking all of this Bears money, like, again, it's very early in the week. I've only talked to, I don't know, say, five bookmakers, but it's early Tuesday. All five said it is all Bears money. All at the four and a half. A couple moved to four. Like Hard Rock. Hard Rock has moved to four. So at least it's moved Chad, because if it hadn't moved, I would have been like, oh, my God. Or me and Chad just stepping in it right now. So we might be. But at least we know the movement's right. We're on the right side for the number wise I am not fully convincing that commander's team in any way that they should be getting this many points. Very, very interesting line. Like Chad said, if you go back and watch that game, pretty much the same teams. If not, the Bears are better now, and, you know, you could say Washington's a little better, but I don't think they're that much different overall. This is crazy. This much of a line movement. Yeah. So, yeah, it's. We'll see. You know, maybe Terry McLaren's back this week, and that's part of it because, you know, Debo has played so well. Daniel's another week getting healthier on that knee. These are all things that are possibly that could be overlooking, but I could not believe this number was four and a half. And it's still four and a half out of a couple books. So, yeah, like I said, Chad, I'll sure. I'll get calls on it. I'll make sure we're not stepping in and everyone else isn't stepping in. But right now it feels good. Feel four and a half feels good on an undervalued Bears team and an overrated. Not overrated, just overvalued Washington team right now. That, yeah, these teams don't feel that far apart. Like, this bay line is basically telling us that Washington would be favorite if they went to the Chicago. And I just. I can't believe that either like that. Just maybe, once again, maybe we're overrating this Bears team. That feels like they're undervaluing this Bears team in a lot of ways. Right now.
- [76:29]
Chad Millman
I think they're completely undervaluing this Bears team. I think that or it's really about overvaluing the commanders. I think they just saw what we saw on Sunday. Jaden Daniels got hot at the exact right time and all of a sudden dominated against a team that just could not convert and couldn't handle the pressure because they had no linemen and that was the end of it. So I think you're getting a little bit of value here, which is why I'm liking the Bears. Go Bears.
- [76:59]
Simon Hunter
Before we end, Chad, can you just. Can I just hear you say, Simon, my friend, my companion, Simon, are you.
- [77:05]
Chad Millman
Oh, are we. Are you upset? Are you feeling like we're angry at each other?
- [77:08]
Simon Hunter
No, I'm just busting your balls. Just making sure you still love me.
- [77:11]
Chad Millman
Simon. Friends can fight.
- [77:14]
Simon Hunter
That was gonna fight. Just. I'll use up on you. I was just busting your balls about not giving picks. I didn't know I struck a little bit of a nerve there with it.
- [77:22]
Chad Millman
You did strike a little bit of a nerve. I get picks every week.
- [77:26]
Simon Hunter
Well, that's keeps to it. I just. Anytime you say you lean, I'm just like, you son of a bitch. Pick a side. I know it's not fun. I'm doing it with you. It's just I don't want to be the only one doing it.
- [77:35]
Chad Millman
Well, sometimes I'm saying I lean because I'm waiting for players.
- [77:38]
Simon Hunter
I know. I'm waiting to find out. I know.
- [77:40]
Chad Millman
I just like we're doing this on freaking Tuesday. I don't know everything yet.
- [77:44]
Simon Hunter
No one does. That's why it's just fun messing with you.
- [77:47]
Chad Millman
You all right, listen, these are the games that we're gonna dig in a little bit further on or at least we're developing strong opinions on.
- [77:58]
Simon Hunter
Really fun week. A lot of really fun lines.
- [78:00]
Chad Millman
Dallas, Carolina. We like Carolina. Chargers. Miami. We like the Chargers. We're going to talk about that some more. Seattle, Jacksonville. We're going to get some calls about. Definitely going to need some more conversation. Cleveland, Pittsburgh. Right now, we like Pittsburgh. We're going to talk about that some more. Arizona. Indy. Early. We were on Indy. We'll see how that settles. New New England. New Orleans. That's Simon says, presented by Hard Rock bat Chad. Chad doesn't agree. Las Vegas, Tennessee. That is Chad's choice. He likes the Raiders. San Francisco, Tampa Bay. We gotta wait and get some intel. Green Bay. We love Green Bay. Kansas City, Detroit. Something fishy is making the line move. We're going to have to evaluate that one further. But right now at least Simon is leaning towards Kansas City. Buffalo. Atlanta. We like Atlanta. It's moving in that direction. Chicago, Washington. We like Chicago. But all these games are going to get more discussion as we try to finalize our five favorite picks on Thursday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on. Plus our survivor pick. Our head to head our brass ball. So much more. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods Rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
- [79:33]
Hard Rock Bet Announcer
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