The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – NFL Week 6 Bets"

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume)
Segment: Sharper Square with Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Date: October 7, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman (Action Network) & Simon Hunter (Pro Sports Bettor)

Overview

In this week’s "Sharper Square," Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the entire NFL Week 6 betting slate in their usual spirited, stats-driven, and banter-heavy style. The duo offers nuanced perspectives—sometimes in agreement, sometimes sparring—on the value of sides and totals for every NFL game, aiming to "make the squares sharper and the wise guys pay attention." They weave personal betting horror stories, sharp/square line movements, injury news, and sharp insights into a lively discussion that’s part analysis and part entertainment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Week 5 Recap & Jags' Wild Win

• Trevor Lawrence Frustrations: Chad vents about the stress of betting the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence’s poor clock management:

  "I had to watch Trevor Lawrence throw a pass 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage ... multiple delay of game calls. Because he cannot seem to manage the clock and the play call ... with a guaranteed $155 million." (02:27)

• Simon’s Take: Simon credits the Jaguars' defensive turnover luck, especially a "crazy athletic" pick-six by Lloyd, and notes the wild results:

  "Jags' defense ... keeps going their way. Lloyd ... becoming the defensive player of the year, had an insane pick six. Like, crazy athleticism, dodging those tacklers, taking it 99 yards." (03:40)

Market Trends & Parity

• Breakdown: 13 teams below .500 and 16 above .500:

  "I feel like this is not parity so much as it is like the haves and the have nots." (04:44)

• Chad stresses the value of discipline and waiting for official injury reports throughout the show—an ongoing banter theme.

Game-By-Game Analysis

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (Thursday Night)

• Line: Eagles -7.5 (trending down)
• Sharp Lean: Simon likes the Giants +7.5 for the value and questions on the Eagles' offensive consistency.

  "Eagles ... just something looks a little off obviously with their offense ... could the Eagles absolutely smoke this giants team by 30? Of course ... but ... I'll take the seven and a half with the Giants for now." (07:16)

• Both hesitate to commit fully without injury news.

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (London Game)

• Line: Broncos -7.5
• Discussion: Both hosts admit the Jets have value as underdogs, but Simon can’t stomach it:

  "This Jets team is highly dysfunctional ... now they're on the road in a international game with not that much leadership ... Broncos team, the vibes could not be higher ... I'm just fighting it right now. It's tough." (11:00)

• Chad echoes, "Flickers are not translating into real points on the board or wins in our pockets. I don't think we have to bet this game at all." (12:34)

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

• Line: Cowboys -3.5
• Sharp Side: Simon is strong on the Panthers at home:

  "This was almost my Simon says bet ... three and a half with the hook. No brainer." (14:05–16:47)

• Chad is less convinced but recognizes Panthers' improved offensive showings at home.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

• Line: Dolphins +4.5 (line moving toward Chargers)
• Sharp Movement: Simon does a 180 based on line movement:

  "I can't believe they moved the Chargers to four ... this is starting to become a Chargers number ... This Miami team is bad." (18:05–20:33)

• Chad concurs, questioning how Miami could cover:

  "They're just not ... the play-calling isn't good enough. The confidence isn't good enough. They can't run the ball." (20:45)

Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Line: Jags slight favorites; flips back and forth
• Public vs. Sharp: Chad leans Seattle if secondary is healthy, but worries about injuries; Simon labels Seattle "the square side."

  "This might be another week that ... Jags are actually in a pretty good spot and the Seahawks are just too banged up." (24:08–26:42)

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Line: Steelers -5
• Sharp Agreement: Both now prefer Steelers after an initial Browns lean:

  "It feels like it's my laziest bet of the week ... but how are you not on Pittsburgh here ... It's just brutal for the Browns." (29:31)

• Emphasize Browns in a brutal scheduling spot (third straight road game), Steelers off a bye.

LA Rams @ Baltimore Ravens

• Line: Ravens +7.5 (injury uncertainty)
• Both note it's "impossible" to model with injury uncertainty (Hamilton, Smith, Humphrey, Lamar Jackson). Simon suggests the Ravens will likely rest stars before the upcoming bye:

  "They're not going to rush these guys back, right? ... After this game, their following week's a bye week ..." (33:13–36:03)

Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts

• Line: Colts -5.5 (moving to -6 or higher)
• Rant Revisited: Simon, still reeling, brands the Cards "losers ... embarrassing organization." (38:39)
• Sharp Side: Colts, but only at lower numbers; if it creeps to 6.5, Simon would pass.

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

• Line: Patriots -3.5
• Simon Says:

  "I'll take that value on an undervalued Saints team that will be undervalued every week ... It's peak right now for this team in New England." (45:05–47:02)

• Classic square vs. sharp—Chad likes the Patriots, arguing their defense is underrated with Christian Gonzalez back.

Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Line: Raiders -4.5
• Chad’s Choice: Raiders as home favorites in an ideal buy-low/sell-high spot; Simon agrees reluctantly, fearing both teams:

  "I'll join you ... but we're going to be miserable. Gino Smith is a train wreck right now ... but it probably is the right side." (53:38)

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Line: Bucs +3 (volatile)
• Simon’s high on Bucs at +3 if Purdy misses; both worry professional money is on the Niners, possibly signaling insider injury knowledge.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

• Line: Packers -14
• Agreement: Both lay the big number against a "horrific" Bengals squad and backup QB. Chad emphasizes LaFleur’s edge:

  "I'm on the packers here." (60:28)

Prime Time Games

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)

• Line: Chiefs -2 (moving toward -2.5 as of recording)
• Sharp Angle: Reluctant sharp play on KC; public loves Detroit but the line is moving the opposite way.

  "You just gotta take the Chiefs here. There's just something fishy going on this line. And don't try to be ... smart in the books. Don’t take Detroit. Something’s going on here." (67:58)

• Chad points out reverse line movement.

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons (Monday Night)

• Line: Falcons +3.5/+4.5 depending on book
• Ed Oliver’s status is pivotal for the Bills’ poor rush D. Both lean Falcons here pending injury info.

  "Can the Bills defense cover these type of numbers against high powered offenses? ... I like Atlanta." (69:48)

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (Monday Night)

• Line: Bears +4/+4.5
• Both agree line is too high.

  "It feels egregious, this total disrespect to what the Bears have done this season. Total overreaction to what Washington did to that Chargers team ..." (74:07)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Jags Win:

  "I listened to Troy Aikman try his hardest not to call Trevor Lawrence. Kind of an idiot for making all these stupid mistakes." – Chad (02:27)

• On Betting Discipline:

  "Chad waits to get the full load of information. Chad's waiting to find out who's playing on the Seattle Seahawks defense before he makes a bet. Chad can think and bet or not bet at the same time." (27:40)

• On Professional/Sharp Money:

  "This is a Chiefs number to back this Chiefs team here. But I’m not gonna lie. It feels like every ounce of me wants to be on Detroit and believes more in Detroit right now ... but I'm clearly missing something." – Simon (64:27)

• On Public Dog Traps:

  "Another public dog that I'm worried is a trap that ... I'm overrating this Bears team somehow, which I don't know how I am. It's like, why is this number not three at best?" – Simon (74:07)

• On Banter & Chemistry:

  "Friends can fight." – Chad (77:11)
  "Anytime you say you lean, I'm just like, you son of a bitch. Pick a side." – Simon (77:25)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Jags Weekend Recap & Betting Anxiety: 00:27–04:44
• Eagles-Giants TNF Analysis: 07:16–08:47
• Broncos-Jets (London) Dilemma: 10:41–12:34
• Cowboys-Panthers Debate: 14:05–16:47
• Chargers-Dolphins Shift: 18:05–21:46
• Seattle-Jacksonville Line Flipping: 24:08–27:40
• Browns-Steelers Chalk Discussion: 28:20–31:39
• Rams-Ravens Injury Puzzle: 33:13–36:03
• Arizona-Indianapolis (Rant Encore): 38:39–44:41
• Patriots-Saints ('Simon Says') Showdown: 45:05–52:03
• Titans-Raiders (Chad’s Choice): 52:07–54:39
• 49ers-Bucs Sharp/Pub Movement: 54:58–58:41
• Bengals-Packers Big Spread: 58:43–62:35
• Chiefs-Lions Prime Time Spotlight: 63:13–68:40
• Bills-Falcons MNF Lean: 68:40–71:03
• Bears-Commanders MNF Recap & Value: 71:03–76:29
• End-of-Show Banter: 77:04–79:33

TL;DR – Week 6 Consensus Leans

• Sharp Sides (as of Tuesday):

  • Giants +7.5 (vs. Eagles)
  • Panthers +3.5 (vs. Cowboys) – Simon’s preference
  • Chargers -4/-3.5 (at Dolphins, if number falls further)
  • Jaguars (vs. Seahawks, if Seahawks D remains banged up)
  • Steelers -4/-5 (vs. Browns)
  • Colts (up to -6) (vs. Cardinals)
  • Saints +3.5 (at Patriots) – Simon’s "Simon Says"
  • Raiders -4.5 (vs. Titans) – Chad’s "Chad’s Choice"
  • Bucs +3 (vs. 49ers, if Purdy sits)
  • Packers -14 (vs. Bengals)
  • Chiefs -2/-2.5 (vs. Lions)
  • Falcons +4.5 (vs. Bills)
  • Bears +4/+4.5 (at Commanders)

• Wait & See: Rams-Ravens, Seahawks-Jags (depend on injury news), 49ers-Bucs (QB status needed), and London/International fixtures (Jets-Broncos, etc.)

Summary

"Sharper Square" serves up a comprehensive, passionate, and often hilarious breakdown of every NFL Week 6 line. Chad and Simon dissect market moves, public-vs-sharp sentiment, and injury news, balancing sharp discipline with the reality that sometimes, “doing gross things” is where the value lies. The episode is a must-listen (or thoroughly digestible read) for serious and casual bettors alike. Their ongoing chemistry, sharp eye for market movement, and unfiltered takes turn another NFL week into a betting masterclass—full of humility, bravado, and actionable picks.