The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharper Square – NFL Week 6 Reactions + Early Week 7 Bets
October 13, 2025 | Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Overview

In this lively episode of Sharper Square, Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down their Week 6 NFL results, dissect key bets, and preview early lines for Week 7. Bringing a sharp bettor’s insight and a dose of humor, they reflect on wins (and sweats), discuss teams to trust (and not), analyze QB play, and highlight betting strategies to help listeners make more informed wagers. Memorable player performances, betting psychology, and a rapid-fire Week 7 lookahead all get the treatment in this entertaining, info-rich show.

Episode Structure & Key Segments

• Results & Recap: Week 6 Bets
  [00:30 – 04:36]
• Game-by-Game Analysis: In-Depth Discussion
  [04:36 – 41:07]
• Hero and Shame of the Week
  [39:29 – 44:22]
• Rapid-Fire Recap & Early Week 7 Leans
  [44:22 – 54:04]
• Q&A and Line Movement Analysis
  [51:48 – 53:58]

Results & Recap: Week 6 Bets

[00:30 – 04:36]

• Record: Millman and Hunter went 3-1 on their official picks heading into Sunday Night Football, pending the Chiefs -1.5 (which felt strong given line movement).
• Winning Bets: Panthers +3.5, Steelers -4.5, Raiders -4.5
• Loss: Colts -6.5
• Near Misses: Saints +3.5, Chargers -4.5 were last ones out; could have swapped with loss.
• Remarkable Stat:
  • Chad: "The New York Jets had minus 10 total passing yards, accounting for all the sacks and lost yardage on passing downs today. That is the lowest in, I think, 27 years in the NFL." [01:55]

Game-by-Game Analysis

[04:36 – 41:07]

Panthers (+3.5) vs. Cowboys

[03:43 – 08:47]

• Panthers Cover: Chad credits Simon’s sharp call; the game unfolded as predicted—"back and forth, just a blast to watch."
• Rico Dowdell: Historic two-game run; first undrafted player with 200+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back games.
  • Simon: "There's no model, nothing that can predict there. That's like totally fluke. ... but back to back games, 200 yards from scrimmage, ... it's not fluke." [04:36]
• Bryce Young at Home: Both note stronger home play; "He just looked more comfortable." [05:26]
• Cowboys Rushing Woes: Only 31 rushing yards; questions about O-line health and extreme OL shuffling.

Steelers (-4.5) vs. Browns

[08:54 – 13:42]

• Conservative Tomlin: The Steelers’ methodical style gave them control.
  • Chad: "Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative. ... He just wants his quarterbacks to not screw it up because ... his defense in certain situations is going to be able to make the plays." [10:38]
• Aaron Rodgers/Kenny Pickett?: Offense stays within itself; DK is a difference-maker.
• Browns’ Betting Outlook: "Kind of an unbettable offense except... at home as big underdogs." [13:20]

Colts (-6.5) vs. Cardinals (Loss)

[13:53 – 17:11]

• Brissett’s Big Day: Arizona, with third-down conversions on long yardage, burned the Colts.
• Jonathan Taylor: Continues to stack Hall-of-Fame-level stats.
  • Chad: "He's one of five players to average more than 90 yards per game to start his career... just hall of famers and Jonathan Taylor." [16:15]

Raiders (-4.5) vs. Titans

[17:33 – 21:28]

• Geno Smith Miscues: Multiple bad decisions; Simon: "My favorite thing was they kept putting up his stats ... and he had like 46 yards passing." [18:06]
• Late Sweat: Raiders tried to give it away with lax defense in final moments, but hung on.
• Neither Trusts Raiders Going Forward:
  • Chad: "I don't ever want to bet the Raiders again."
  • Simon: "I feel like Gino will get right. He's just not right yet, like you said. And that's why I don't want to bet him." [20:06]

Saints (+3.5; Not Played) vs. Patriots

[23:53 – 28:25]

• Drake Maye: Downright impressive ("the most impressive half I've seen him play as a professional"—Simon, [25:02]).
• Chad & Simon agree: Most receivers missed by Saints; Pats benefited from key Saints miscues.

Chargers (-4.5; Not Played) vs. Dolphins

[28:53 – 30:51]

• Regret Skipping: "If this game is under 10 with half a quarter left, our bet is dead." —Simon, proven correct.
• Chargers’ Collapse: Blew a 13-point lead, had to eke out win.
  • Chad: "Why can't Justin Herbert close teams out? It's kind of. It's getting ridiculous." [29:27]
• Miami “Heat Factor”: Simon blames Chargers’ defense gassing late.

Seattle at Jacksonville

[30:51 – 32:54]

• Trevor Lawrence Critique: Chad calls him "trash" and an impediment to Jags’ upside.
• Jackson Smith-Njigba Breakout: Simon loving his value bets here.
• Seattle a Cover Machine on Road.

Packers vs. Bengals

[32:54 – 35:29]

• Packers’ Underperformance: Failed to smash bad Bengals D; let Cincy hang around.
• Jordan Love Issues: Lacking "killer instinct."
  • Simon: "They don't have that killer instinct... and they let teams hang around and they easily could have lost that game." [34:07]
• Flacco’s Competence: Bengals looked more confident with Flacco at QB.

Heroes & Shame of the Week

[39:29 – 44:22]

Hero of the Week

• Chad: Rico Dowdell (Panthers) + Dave Canales (OC)
  • Chad: "That to me, is why we were betting on the Panthers this week. Dave Canales is a really good coach and he's scheming up really good game plans for his offensive line..."
• Simon: Baker Mayfield (Bucs)
  • Simon: "My hero is Baker. That play, he avoids a sack, fights through another tackler, stretches his arm out for the first down, next play, bombs it up the seam to a total no-name, and they score. ... I can't get enough of betting this guy." [41:37]

Shame of the Week

• Chad: Chargers Defense – Gave up multiple long drives, couldn’t get off the field when up 13 late.
• Simon: Colts Defense – Let Brissett convert 9 of 14 third downs, often on long yardage.
  • Simon: "...just really lazy zone defense just didn't make sense." [37:20]

Rapid-Fire Recap & Early Week 7 Leans

[44:22 – 54:04]

• Quick Results/Parlays:
  • Parlay wins: Raiders, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Packers (barely).
  • Underdog parlay: Panthers, Seahawks (result pending: Detroit, Bears MNF).
  • Survivor: Packers.
• Lean Highlights:
  • Tennessee/New England: "As soon as they sell the number, don't we have to bet New England? There's no reason for us to trust Tennessee." – Simon [46:50]
  • Bucs @ Lions: “Kinda want to take Detroit. I assume they get smoked tonight and take it out on this Bucs team.” – Simon [47:40]
  • Baker Mayfield MVP Odds: Simon notes it’s crashing quickly, likely now a favorite after another strong win.
  • Jags vs. Rams (London Game): Looking to back Jacksonville as home dogs in England.
  • Eagles/Vikings: Concern over Philly’s defense health vs. high-powered MIN passing.
  • Chargers/Colts: Lean towards Chargers as small home favorite.
  • Giants/Broncos: Early lean Giants +7.5 as Broncos return from international; line may move.
  • Bears/Washington line move: Bears’ LT announced out? Both are skeptical it’s the real reason for a rapidly increasing spread in favor of Commanders despite key Washington injuries.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Chad, on the Jets:
  "They are just thinking and finding new ways to look incompetent and lose games. ... I don't even feel bad for them." [01:55]

• Simon, on betting psychology:
  "That's the public minds we're playing with. We're sharp. We're sharp, Chad." [08:02]

• Chad, on Steelers:
  "The Steelers, they were just in control the whole time. ... Mike Tomlin loves to play conservative." [10:38]

• Simon, about Baker Mayfield:
  "It's the best. ... I can't get enough of betting this guy." [43:17]

• Chad, on Chargers’ defensive collapse:
  "I'd love to blame their O line, I really would. ... But in the fourth quarter, the Chargers were up 26 to 13. Their defense then allowed a nine play, 69 yard drive and a 13 play, 82 yard drive to take the lead." [36:03]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Jets Historic Incompetence: [01:55]
• Panthers vs. Cowboys/Rico Dowdell: [04:36 – 08:47]
• Steelers Strategy & Browns Unreliability: [08:54 – 13:42]
• Colts Loss/Brissett Exploits/Taylor’s Company: [13:53 – 17:11]
• Raiders-Titans Late Sweat: [17:33 – 21:28]
• Saints vs. Pats/Drake Maye’s Best Half: [23:53 – 28:25]
• Chargers Collapse vs. Miami: [28:53 – 30:51]
• Seattle at Jacksonville/Lawrence Critique: [30:51 – 32:54]
• Packers Underwhelming Win/Bengals Flacco Impact: [32:54 – 35:29]
• Hero/Shame Segment: [39:29 – 44:22]
• Rapid-Fire Recap/Week 7 Early Leans: [44:22 – 54:04]

Final Thoughts

The hosts, with their authentic banter and bulletproof betting logic, demystify NFL lines while never losing sight of their goal—making listeners sharper, and never squares. Come for the betting picks, stay for the cutting analysis and can’t-miss moments (“Baker Mayfield is impossible not to love!”).

Next episode: Tune in Tuesday for the full NFL Week 7 slate review, more hot betting takes, and live audience Q&A.