The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: NFL Week 7 Bets

Date: October 15, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman (B), Simon Hunter (A)
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume

Episode Overview

This “Sharp or Square” episode is a comprehensive, fast-paced guide to the NFL’s Week 7 slate from a professional sports betting angle. Chad Millman (Action Network) and Simon Hunter (pro bettor) break down all the most tempting matchups against the spread, riffing on key stats, betting trends, coaching narratives, roster injuries, market movement – and, per tradition, a healthy dose of pessimism and gallows humor about their own picks.
The episode follows its typical structure: review of recent bets and records, deep analysis of individual matchups, debating sharp vs. square sides, highlighting “Chad’s Choice” and “Simon Says” best bets, and flagging games with contest appeal. The conversation spotlights favorites, underdogs, sharp movements, and why some teams are irresistible trainwrecks to back with your money—plus memorable rants on disappointing coaches and rookie QBs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Cold Open and Banter (00:00–03:40)

• Sports Overload: Chad bemoans the packed sports calendar while Simon celebrates it.

  "Too much sports. Impossible night. I can't stay up this late." – Chad (00:30)
  "I want it. I want more...I wish there was a Seahawks-49ers game right now." – Simon (00:42)

• Farewell to Titans HC Brian Callahan: Stats on his shockingly bad ATS record (2–15 last year, 4–19 overall).

  "He lost against the spread by an average of 10 points per game...You almost never made anyone betting against them sweat." – Chad (02:54)

Record Review and Approach to the Week (03:40–04:28)

• 4–1 record last week on top picks (Chiefs, Panthers, Steelers, Raiders, lost Colts).
• Season tally: 19–11 ATS through six weeks – “not bad.”
• This Tuesday episode is early analysis; their official five picks come after further review.

Week 7 Game-By-Game Slate and Betting Analysis

Steelers at Bengals (Thursday) (05:16–07:23)

• Tomlin as Road Favorite Stat: 19–29 ATS as 5+ point fave on road.
• Market Movement: Bengals +5.5 seen as a value given the trend, but low confidence in Flacco.

  "Tomlin as a big favorite on the road. It's never appealing to me." – Simon (06:05)

• Consensus: Dabbling Bengals, but neither host is racing to back either team.

Rams vs. Jaguars (London Game) (07:23–12:25)

• Chad hates London games; Simon loves the chaos.
• Jags get points against a Rams team prone to playing down to competition.
• Professional money hammering Jags at +3; public likely to too given past trends.

  “These international games are sloppy, they're dumb...I just love football so much.” – Simon (09:03)

• Chad repeatedly criticizes Trevor Lawrence’s pocket presence (23 pressures, 7 sacks against Seahawks).

  “Blame Trevor. His average time to throw...3.1 seconds...His O-line didn't blow it. Trevor did.” – Chad (11:22)

• Pick: Both lean Jaguars with the points.

Raiders at Chiefs (14:15–18:59)

• Chiefs’ ATS woes as big favorites, but not an autoplay spot for Raiders.
• Max Crosby highlighted as a matchup nightmare for KC’s O-line.

  "He’s just an absolute game changer." – Simon (17:49)

• Chiefs rush defense rated as worst; possibility Raiders run game exploits it.
• Waiting for line to hit +13 before making a major Raiders play.

Miami at Cleveland (19:00–25:05)

• Chad’s Choice: Browns -2.5, citing elite defense at home and Miami’s soft run D.

  "The Cleveland Browns, minus two and a half, are Chad's choice." – Chad (20:24) "The pros are on it too...this is a great spot defensively." – Simon (21:11)

• QB controversy: Dolphins struggling to protect, Browns offense disappointing, calls for QB change.
• Dialog on blame between Stefanski vs. GM for Browns' QB carousel.

Bears at Saints (25:05–30:03)

• Bears now 3–2 despite negative point differential and continual growing pains for Caleb Williams.
• Line moving toward Bears after clutch win but Simon expects Bears are overvalued.

  “Right now they're overvalued...their defense is, especially against the run, who are you to be catching -5.5 against anybody, let alone the Saints?” – Simon (29:20)

• Slight lean to the Saints due to perceived overpricing of Chicago.

Eagles at Vikings (30:03–34:24)

• “Simon Says” (Best Bet): Vikings +2.5

  “My Simon says BET this week is the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half.” – Simon (31:27)

• Eagles injury issues (Jalen Carter, Quinyan Mitchell) and defensive struggles against modern passing attacks.
• Public likely overvaluing Eagles, especially with injuries.

  "KOC is a genius at attacking teams' weaknesses." – Simon (33:38)

• Lighthearted rivalry banter over past Super Bowl glories.

Jets vs. Panthers (35:13–39:24)

• Both teams are disasters, but this is a “sharp” spot to back the winless Jets as home dogs.

  "It's a game where...you do have to hold your nose, unfortunately, and take the Jets." – Simon (37:22)

• Trend: Winless teams as home dogs in weeks 7+ cover 55% of the time since 1989.
• Reluctance given Jets’ coaching/roster malaise, but value at +2 or higher.

Patriots at Titans (post-ad break, 42:55–45:23)

• Coaching Change Angle: New interim Mike McCoy triggers the “dead cat bounce" effect—cautions against backing NE as road favorite.
• Titans are the sharp side if line hits +7.5; Patriots flat after two emotional last-minute wins.

  "Man, just like the Jets, Chad's nailing it: this is sickening, but we gotta do it." – Simon (44:05)

Colts at Chargers (45:23–50:38)

• Early pro money predicted on Chargers (-1.5), fading the possibly peaking Colts.
• Simon's numbers (model) say Chargers should be -3; points to matchup edge vs. Colts secondary.

  “This was almost Simon says. Early in the week. This is gonna be the bigger Sharper Square game.” – Simon (46:52)

• Both have little confidence, but wary of going back to the well after Chargers’ recent ATS struggles.

Giants at Broncos (50:38–54:29)

• Chad likes Denver as a (possibly undervalued) 7-point favorite vs. a Giants team getting too much credit for recent upsets.

  “Bo Nix has generally played better against bad teams. This is a bad team.” – Chad (51:44)

• Simon likes Giants if line creeps above +7; otherwise can see case for Broncos given defense/situational mismatch.

Cardinals at Packers (55:22–58:08)

• Too many unknowns with injury status (Kyler, Marvin Harrison, RB) to bet; both would prefer Packers if certainty around starters.

Commanders at Cowboys (58:08–61:39)

• Divisional shootout with very high total; market surprisingly giving pros-and-early-money respect to Dallas -2.
• Dak playing at near-MVP level; Dallas D a liability.

  “I am shocked how much respect professional money is coming in on this Cowboys team...” – Simon (59:32)

Falcons at 49ers (SNF) (61:45–66:29)

• Brock Purdy injury status the key variable; Atlanta D feisty but just gave up big games.
• Fred Warner’s injury a crucial concern for SF defense, possibly swinging the matchup.
• Consensus: Cautious lean to Atlanta (+2.5 or 3) given Niners’ recent misfires and key injuries.

  “You cannot survive losing Fred Warner.” – Simon (64:07)

Lions vs. Buccaneers (Monday Night 1) (66:38–70:49)

• Baker continues to cash tickets, but sharp money, market movement, and Jared Goff's home/dome splits (69% ATS) all point to Detroit -4.5/-5.
• Both agree this is a “Lions spot,” despite fandom.

  “It’s a Lions line. Are you kidding me? The Lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome...69% against the spread.” – Chad (70:03) “I’m gonna trust my computer because I know I'm too close to it. I just love betting on Baker.” – Simon (70:47)

Texans at Seahawks (Monday Night 2) (71:14–74:59)

• Early Bet: Chad’s first move: Houston +3.5 citing undervalued D and overestimation of Seattle’s home field.

  “Look, we love the Seahawks...I think the Texans defense is actually better across like the cool kid metrics.” – Chad (72:17)

• Simon fully agrees, notes total is low (40.5), increasing value of underdog with the hook.

  “Anytime you have a low total like that between two good defenses and they’re giving you the hook, don’t think it, just bet it.” – Simon (73:07)

• Both expect sharp money on Houston to increase as week goes on.

Notable Quotes (w/ Timestamps)

• On Brian Callahan:

  "He lost against the spread by an average of 10 points per game." – Chad (02:54)

• On Trevor Lawrence:

  “He’s just talented enough to be tantalizing...He is the problem on this team.” – Chad (12:23)

• On betting ugly teams:

  “You have to hold your nose, unfortunately, and take the Jets.” – Simon (37:22)

• On Vikings as Simon Says pick:

  “My Simon says BET this week is the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half.” – Simon (31:27)

• On Lions in a dome:

  "The Lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career...69% against the spread. This is the spot." - Chad (70:03)

• On Houston MNF:

  "Anytime you have a low total like that between two good defenses and they’re giving you the hook, don’t think it, just bet it." – Simon (73:07)

Suggested Games for Contest Picks (75:10–76:32)

• Cleveland -2.5 (Chad’s Choice)
• Minnesota +2.5 (Simon Says)
• Lean New Orleans +5.5
• Consider Jets, Titans, Chargers, Denver, Detroit, Houston as contest selections.

Episode Tone & Energy

• The hosts are witty and self-deprecating, blending sharp market analysis and statistics with relatable fan frustration and conversational humor.
• Frequent asides about existential betting dread and disbelief at how often they’re compelled to bet “ugly” teams.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:16] – Steelers-Bengals breakdown
• [09:03] – Jaguars/Rams London analysis
• [14:15] – Raiders-Chiefs and divisional big favorites trends
• [20:24] – Chad’s Choice: Browns -2.5
• [31:27] – Simon Says: Vikings +2.5
• [37:22] – Jets-Panthers, the “hold your nose” pick
• [42:55] – Patriots-Titans and dead cat bounce effect
• [46:52] – Public-sharp divide: Colts at Chargers
• [51:44] – Broncos-Giants “bad favorite” talk
• [59:32] – Commanders-Cowboys, pro respect for Dallas
• [66:38] – Lions-Buccaneers and Goff dome dominance
• [71:14] – Texans-Seahawks: must-bet underdog w/ the hook
• [75:10] – Contest pick recap and wrap up

Final Thoughts

An information-rich, lively run-through of the Week 7 NFL lines, full of sharp stats, market wisdom, and hard-earned pessimism. The hosts demonstrate why breaking down “ugly dog” sides can be, paradoxically, the sharpest plays of all—provided you can stomach the pain.

Recommended for:
Serious NFL bettors, contest players, sharp/square line shoppers, fans seeking market-moving insight, or anyone craving honest, opinionated football talk with an edge.