← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 7 Bets: Steelers-Browns, Eagles-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, Patriots-Titans, Commanders-Cowboys and more
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This is an iHeart podcast.
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Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, and I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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A
Chad. How we doing, dude?
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B
Too much sports. Too much sports. Impossible night. I like Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, Monday night. I can't stay up this late.
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A
I love it. I. But I don't. I have no life. So this is. This is my life. So this is what I live for. So I. I saw a bunch of people complaining about NFL schedule. Like, there's the England game, and then, you know, they got the two double headers on Monday, and it's just too much. And I'm just like, I want it. I want more. I wish there was. After that game ended, I was like, I can go for another Pacific game right now. I wish There was a Seahawks 49ers game right now. So between the baseball, the football, last night had all four on the same tv. It's like, man, this is. This is good stuff right now.
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B
I got to get up in the morning and got to exercise. I don't have time for staying up till midnight every for the sports. We're going to get to this Bears game because obviously I'm going to have strong opinions about it, but I want to talk about it when we actually talk about the Bears and the Saints, because you've been loving the Saints all year. So I want to save that for that conversation. I do want to pour one out. Simon, for Brian Callahan, the Titans head coach for all of 23 games. In those 23 games, he went 4:19 against the spread, including a historically bad 2 and 15 against the spread. Last year, he was somehow 2, 4. This year against the spread, they covered their first game of the year against the Broncos at eight and a half. We actually bet on them. They miraculously covered 10 days ago again against the Cardinals. I know that was a crushing blow for many of us. Here's a pop quiz for you, Simon. Are you ready?
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Yes, sir.
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On average, can you tell me the spread average spread by which the Titans were underdogs in those 19 losses? Put it at six, three and a half.
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Wow. That's a lot of respect.
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Closer than I expected, right? Can you tell me, on average, how many points per game the titans lost those 19 games?
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13.
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Dude. 13 and a half. That was amazing. During his tenure, Brian Callahan not Only was one of the worst coaches in the NFL.
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Yeah.
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And the worst coaches in the NFL in history. Overall. Against the spread, he lost again, the spread by an average of 10 points per game. That's why everyone kept saying, hey, why don't you just fade the Titans? You're gonna make all the money. Because he was losing against the spread by an average of 10 points per game. They almost never made anyone betting against them sweat. They were out of it in nearly every game they played. That's the end of an era and that's, you know, bad for us.
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There you go.
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Except that one game against the Cardinals where all of Survivor Dom suffered.
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I know, it's brutal.
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We went 4 and 1 last week in our five favorite picks from the Sunday morning show. We won with the Chiefs, the Panthers, the Steelers and the Raiders. Should be seeing the graphics. We lost with the Colts. Make sure you check out that Sunday AM show if you want the games. That will be our official five after we've had a chance to review everything. The Tuesday show is where you will get our official up to date record for the year. Simon. We are now 19 and 11 through six weeks. 30 games, five games a week against the spread for six weeks. We are 19 and 11. That's not bad.
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No, we'll take it. It's a good start.
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B
This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like the video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pod, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. All right, here we go. Got an Amazon prime game, Thursday Night Football, 8:15pm Eastern. Already too late for me. There's no way I'm staying up past halftime for this game, but I will have a bet on this game. Did you see Simon, Mike Tomlin's post game pressure when he was asked about Joe Flacco being traded to the Bengals from the Cleveland Browns? Let's play the clip.
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Be honest, it was shocking to me. Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn't make sense to me to trade a quarterback that you think enough of to make your opening day starter to a division opponent that's hurting in that area.
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B
All right, look, he's mad. Mike Tomlin, he's really mad. Here are the facts, regardless of how mad he is, and I think this could be why he's mad. Mike Tomlin has a favorite of five or more on the road 19 and 29. We love a rara. Mike. Tom would spot this ain't it. I love to love the Steelers. I don't. I'm not saying we saw enough of the Bengals in a competitive game that they can carry forward. I just think the Bengals are the right side at five and a half.
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A
That's fair. Yeah. And like I always say, I basically pulling all night. I worked through the night to do all these games and I skipped this game because I was just like, yeah, I just, I was like, what's the point? Like, my view of it is I'm probably gonna end up last minute on this Bengal side just because of the number. And like you said, I just Tomlin as a big favorite on the road. It's never appealing to me. And even, even now that you just gave that stat, that trend, that's. That's a big deal to me. So. Yeah, I just, I was going through the games obviously yesterday and I just. As soon as I saw this one, it's like, don't even waste my time. It's like, I'll take a side. I already know I'm gonna take the Bengal side. You know, this number feels inflated. Like probably should be four, three and a half. But you never know we're going to get from Flacco. So it's tough to have a ton of confidence in where it's like he did look good in periods with that Bengals team last week against Green Bay, but I don't know, he. He just. He's not the type of guy I'm going to trust, let alone have us put in the contest. So like I said, I was never going to waste time in this game. I'll end up on the Bengals, but with very, very small amount of confidence.
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B
Chad Millman is not afraid to make a pick. Simon.
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Okay, make one.
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I did. I made the Bengals the pick.
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Okay, there we go.
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Come on.
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Get his ass. Get his ass. Get his ass. Back your ass up, little dude. Give it to him.
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Guess what? On Sunday, I don't even know if you'll make it to this game. 9:30am Eastern, we're going to wake up and we're going to get Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. International waters, the land that law forgot. I, I gotta say, I hate these London games and I hate the Monday night doubleheaders. I. I'm with the fans on this. I feel like they are, they're. They are not serving the sports fan. They are not giving us what we want. They don't watch the Monday night Football, doubleheaders.
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I, I, it's not for you.
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I don't watch.
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There you go.
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Actually, I don't watch the, the England games. I think they're boring. Like, I end up doing a million other things in that window so I can get ready for the 1pm games. It's a. They're I at like 12:45. I check in, I'm like, oh, look what happened in this game. Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars. Lines come down a little bit. It was plus three. We talked about it Sunday. You leaned Jags on Sunday. I think the Rams played down to the level of their opponent. They struggled against the Texans in week one. Had a hard time putting the Titans away in Week two. Take the Eagle to the wire and lose. Take the Colts to the wire and win. Struggle and lose against a depleted Niners team. Struggle against a depleted Ravens team. So should we assume the Jags are good and they're going to be good in this game? Puka is questionable. Not easy at all to recuperate when you got to travel the way they're traveling. You know, stuff swells up on the.
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Plane and I'm shocked. This number's already moved. I thought it would hold just because there would be so much Rams love. And yeah, we're, It's a weird season where teams are four and two and we're trying to pick them apart, and that's just how it is in the NFL. So, like the Rams are 4 and 2. Yeah. Could they easily be 6? Zero? Agree. They're a team that, you know, is really good. We say they have little weaknesses here and there are bad bounces here and there. And that's just, that's football. That's why I love it so much. The, the whole league is just in terminal. It feels like. Right. Like the worst teams, like the Giants, you think they just want a Super bowl even though they don't even have a winning record. And the Bills and Eagles fans, season's over. They're packing up. They're both four and two. So it's like, it is. It's like that meme of the two pitchers, the guy looking out the window and the guy looking at the mountainside. It's, it's how you perceive it right now. And this, this Rams team, I, I think I'm in agreement with you that I just think it's early year. They're still a little sloppy. Sloppy enough that this Jags team could get them. Like this is a Jags line. Like a three. Shop around. There's still threes out there. I'd be on the Jaguars here because like Judd said, it's. These international games are sloppy, they're dumb. A football head like me, I love it on the background. I love it, you know, running around all the sports books Sunday morning, the games are on, People are in the books, watching. I don't know. I. I just love sports, obviously. I just love football so much. So it's. It's a show every time, like Chad said. So I'm gonna take the Jags, who are used to it. We know the Rams are a better team. This is not a Trevor Lawrence, but this is honestly a bet on the flukiness, the randomness of London and the fact that we're catching points on a team that honestly feels pretty equal to this Rams team right now. So I was shocked that it was three. The movement makes sense professionally. This is going to be all Jags money. Like, I honestly think it's gonna be on the more public sides this week just because people are thinking, just like me, they're going to see the trends. The Jags win, they cover when they go to London. And why would you take the minus three on this ramp team if you can get plus three in this jack set? So it's interesting to see if it holds it two and a half. If it's minus two and a half all week, that's going to make me feel better about getting the three, just because that's going to be such a key number, obviously, in this matchup.
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Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Trevor Lawrence, because he's still trash. But, like, honestly, you are always going to be betting on the Jags in spite of Trevor Lawrence, and you look at his stats every game, you look at his stats and you think, oh, pretty good. Like, if you don't watch the games the way we do and you just sort of watch the game that's on your local broadcast and you root for your team and you, you know, you're. You're hearing about the Jags. Every once in a while, you see, oh, Trevor Lawrence, he's. He's doing okay. Trevor Lawrence was pressured 23 times against the Seahawks. He was sacked 7. You can blame the offensive line. You would be just wrong. Blame Trevor. His average time to throw in that game was 3.1 seconds. That was the third longest in the NFL. That's worst. Third worst of the week. His O line didn't blow it. Trevor did. He's just. He's just talented enough to be tantalizing, to be interesting to think, oh, he can do it.
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I know.
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And then he's truly a hindrance to this team. He really is. Like if they had someone who was a little bit smarter and I know that sounds nasty, like I'm calling him dumb, but what I really mean is like someone who reacted better to what was happening on the defensive side of the ball and moved quicker and understood the scheme of the offense better. They, they would be a juggernaut. The way their defense is playing, the way their line is playing, they would be awesome. He is the problem on this team. But yeah, it's a Jack's bet. Unfortunately it's a Jags bet. Duvall, Las Vegas Raiders we loved them on Sunday. They did us fine at the Kansas City Chiefs. We loved them on Sunday night. Dude, that was just phenomenal. All flowers for you because we were on it from, from the early part of last week and it continued to move in the Chiefs direction even though all the bats were coming on the Lions and, and it kind of was never even a sweat big move. After the money night game, Chiefs were 10 and a half, went to 11, went to 11 and a half, even touched 12 before started to see some, some buyback here. I don't know man, it's a bad spot for the Chiefs. Like Mahomes is a favorite of more than three which he usually is, is just not going to be a winning bet against the spread. I will tell you as a double digit favorite in the Division 5 and 5. So it's not, it's not an autoplay on the Raiders like we would think it is.
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Yeah and it's tough for me with this Chiefs one because I'm, I'm like so thankful to them now because that's probably my bigger bets of the year them ats wise the Chiefs last weekend. It's, it's always scary, right? That exact spot. Betting so heavy on a team against a juggernaut like Detroit is. But we joke all the time. People, they moan, they complain about the Chiefs and the refs in prime time games especially you can make money off of people. You can either complain about it or.
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Profit or you can cash, right?
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So you have years and years of evidence and you were the sucker because every time you're in Detroit on that spot and it's just I try to explain to people all the time it's like I don't know these things. Old heads know these things and I'm luckily you know these guys who can tell me like hey this is, this is a spot here. This is, there's A lot of signals here and the trends point to it. So this week, like Chad said, there's no real trends here to favor the Raiders other than like, I feel like I take the Raiders in this spot against the Chiefs. It doesn't matter if it was Derek Carr or whoever. They've some reason. They've always played really well against the Chiefs and held up even when they were bad. Like bad defensively. All this stuff. So patient, patient, patient. I'm looking at Hard Rock live here in New Jersey. Just went to 12. Couple books out there. Already moved at 12 and a half. I mean, who's going to be fighting us on this number? The public is going to like last week, nobody. Yeah, last week I. I talked about Green Bay getting them down to six. Six and a half. Five and a half. You do the same with the Chiefs this week. A lot of. A lot of people are going to be doing that. I will stay away. I will either be on the Raiders at the number. Maybe a little on the Raiders money line. Just stinky, stinky game here. Dude, plug your nose. It's.
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Thanks.
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The Raiders can easily get rolled. We all know that. They also can just have a meltdown type of game where the Chiefs are getting rice back. The vibes couldn't be higher. This is I think a 1pm start. So that's 10am for both these teams kind of in a way. Right. Like that's. I know that Chiefs are on west coast time, but it's right there and I. I just. There's been fluky games at this exact spot. These day games with these matchups between these two teams and the Raiders is a big dog. So not giving it out yet. I want people to be patient just seeing the way the number's going. Let's see if we can get 13. A 13. I'd feel comfortable taking this number on this Raiders team at eleven and a half. There's no need, no need to rush in on just a dead number.
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Yeah. And look, there are. If. Like we always say, if you squint, you can see certain matchups that. That might benefit.
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I can't. It's all a negative. I'm trying to. We. And you hate Gino right now.
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We hate Gino.
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Well, look, I can't imagine this Geno matchup.
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We totally hate Geno. But here's. Here's why, like other than. Other than the number. Other than the number, if you need something to hold on to, you need a little handrail on the roller coaster. The Chiefs rush defense is just truly bad. Worse than the NFL if the news out of Las Vegas is true and that Pete Carroll is just getting super frustrated with Chip Kelly and the way he's calling these games and the minimal amount that he is putting Geno Smith in a position to throw the game away. And Geno is. He just wants Ashton Genti to get the ball. If they can give the ball to Ashton Genti, will they be able to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that cannot stop the run right now? Or flip side, is Spags going to know that they won't trust Geno and just stuff the box and make it impossible for them to run? That's sort of where it gets tricky and a little bit of a chess match. But.
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And we talk all the time, the Max Crosby effect. This is the dream matchup for him. He's either got a backup tackle or a rookie tackle who's banged up. So Max, every time we bet the Raiders we talk about. But it really is the Max Crosby effect. He wins. He's been winning us bets on this Raiders team, honestly.
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B
Yeah.
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Has been trying to lose it for us. So he's just an absolute game record, game changer. And this is another favorable matchup for him against an offensive line that wasn't exposed against Detroit and Hutchinson. But you saw there are. There were chances there just Mahomes is getting the ball out of his hands in two seconds.
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B
Yep. Totally true. And this is one of those backdoor games where either Gino is going to win it because the back door is going to just barge through that back door.
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I'm praying for a 12, 9 game or.
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Or the back door is open and Gino's going to let them walk right in because he's going to throw a pick 6 when they're down by like 10 with 3 minutes left.
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I wish I could have more confident this one because it's an insane number. But just it's a crazy number. Watching Gino's film. It's so brutal right now.
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It's terrible. Truly terrible. I can't believe I'm doing this. Miami at Cleveland. Cleveland minus two and a half. It jumped from one and a half to two and a half while we were talking on Sunday. It totally makes sense. This is a Browns game. We said on Sunday there are certain spots you're going to bet on the Browns. The number one factor is when this defense is at home. We have, in theory at least the more confident coach we have, the much, much better defense. We have a Miami offense defense that is bottom 10 and Miami offense. I'm sorry, that is bottom 10 in sack percentage, bottom 10 in sacks allowed. A rush defense that is as bad as Kansas City's in the most superficial metrics and the advanced metrics, it's like they go out of their way not to stop the run. Simon, the sooner that. It's like they're saying the sooner they don't stop the run, the sooner Mike McDaniel is going to get fired. There's no violence. They are the pacifists of defenses. The Cleveland Browns, minus two and a half, are Chad's choice.
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Chad's choice. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice?
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A choice. We can't run from who we are.
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Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? Well, Chad, everyone has a choice to make in life, and you've made yours, and it's the Cleveland Browns.
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What are we gonna do? Three games that came down to Chad's choice. I will tell you the other ones, but one of them, it just might be on too late for me, and I can't abide by that. So it came down to this and another game. And in the end, I just decided. I was doing the research yesterday. I'm like, I can't believe this is the game, but it is.
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I'll take it. I'm on it with you. The pros are on it, too. We're seeing a couple of books already pop at three, so definitely grab it while you can. I mean, unfortunately, it is minus 120, but I think it's worth paying that for this line at minus two and a half. And it's a tricky, tricky spot and a number that I think reflects a lot where it's like, the pros get. And they see it, the general public won't. I think the majority of them will come in on Miami because, like you just said, it's a brown scene that just looked very putrid these last couple weeks. Many are calling for Shador to get his time. Like, what is Dylan Gabriel done to deserve these continuous starts? And this is the Stevenski. He don't win this with this kid. How does ownership not make a change? Right? I mean, how many chances can you give this guy? I know they gave him. They've gave him leeway because it wasn't his. Watson was not his. That was not on him. But what he's doing right now with Shador and Gabriel, it's bizarro world. Like, if you. You openly moved Flacco, you're omitting your punting on the season if Gabriel's not doing it, especially in this matchup against this defense, you have to make a QB change. So I agree with it. I like that how desperate this Brown team is going to be. Defensively this is a great spot like you said. I think offensively with Gabriel, this has to be the spot for him to show up. This is a bad secondary. I mean we, we've talked all year about it. I didn't envision their D line being as bad as it's been. This Miami team, they've been putrid as well. So come on, you have to be able to move the ball here. You got a running back that can run it. You need a quarterback and push it downfield. With Judy Tillman they have. They have pieces. They can move it downfield with us. So I like this play Chad. I it's really too about the number like. Like I just said. Hopefully people can hear this and get this minus two and a half to me. That's why I think it's the right choice for you here. It's. It's a good pick here on Tuesday.
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B
So I guess what I don't understand is I don't really blame Stefanski for these moves. Like a. They got rid of Baker. That wasn't his idea. They traded for DeSean. That wasn't his idea. They've now gone all in on Flacco. That's not his fault. Like Mike Tomlin called out Andrew Barry. Why is it like Stefanski has done the best he can do with a terrible situation and he keeps getting quarterbacks who are not close to replacement level and so why should he get fired? Why isn't the GM getting fired?
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A
It's fair. It's all fair. But at the same time it's. He had. If he. If he is just a puppet then yeah you're right but you he has to be making decision at this point. He can't be letting. He can't be still getting railroaded by a GM that's failed so miserably like you just said in so many different ways. I just don't believe that. I think a lot of this is the fans guys. I just never thought he likes to door think that like you said I think the GM made that pick or the owner did and he's never liked it. Where at this point you just at least have to see put them out there. Let him fail and no one will ask again. Someone like me will not care. I just think Shador is a gamer and it's like right now Dylan Gabriel at 5:11, not athletic, doesn't have a big arm. What are we doing here? This guy will never be a pro in this league. He does. You need to at least do one thing great in football in five categories. He is over five in all the categories. So I'm just, I'm not seeing it where Shador we've at least seen the arm talent and some of the athleticism. So that's just my push against the fans at this point. It's just this to me is the dream matchup. If at half you have three to zero points, you must make a qb, change ownership, I believe will make a call at that point. It's just stugging of a matchup not to put up points against Miami. Like you said, it's a good number, good spot for the Browns defensively. Offense needs to show up against this bad Miami defense and that I agree with. We get some weather.
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B
Yes, that would be nice, right?
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A
That'd be nice.
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B
Listen, I agree with you on Shador and Stefanski. If he's not playing Stefanski, that's not the gm. That's just. That's just Stefanski being stubborn and he's not doing any better with Dylan Gabriel that. You know, back in the corporate world we used to call that a pocket veto, right? Like the big boss would come in over the top and say you got to bring this person in. I want you to try to develop this person. And then they would never do anything with the person, just pocket veto. And that's what that will begin to feel like with Shador. So let's see if that becomes a factor with Stefanski and the Browns in the coming weeks. Get to it, man. New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears the Bears are five point favorites. Listen, someone like what they saw last night, this line actually moved from four and a half to five to five and a half at a lot of places right now after the Bears last second win over the commanders. Let me just set the scene for a second. I was so frustrated with the Bears last night. I actually forgot I had bet the Bears at plus four and a half. And because Caleb Williams I don't think. I don't think Ben Johnson was putting Caleb Williams in spots to succeed. He was calling plays that third and one call, that fourth and one call. Like Caleb is not the guy who you can give a play call where the first read isn't going to be available immediately. He's just, he doesn't play that way. Like he gets in his head, he runs backward, he gets caught in the, in the, in the rush, that's just not his game. It's also not his game to throw intermediate passes accurately on third and long. That's not how you're going to win games with Caleb Williams. I thought the Bears did a great job last night. Their defense was awesome except for three miscues by Dennis Allen where he wasn't rushing the passer with with more than three or four when he should have been. The penalties were ridiculous. Some ticky tacky, some just sloppy and undisciplined. I'm really glad my phone died before the end of the first half so I got to avoid all the angry emotional texts from all my buddies. I didn't get anything charged again until the end of the game. But, but man, it was a roller coaster. A roller coaster is a better. A roller coaster is a fan.
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A
Yeah, you're too tough. You should be elated how good your team is. The fact you're 3 and 2, I mean is insane. You should not be 3 and 2. You're minus 15 point differential has to be the first team in NFL history to win back to back road games 25 to 24. Just bizarro world type of stat that is. I, I don't know, you're just not a good team. But you have a good coach, a quarterback that make can make plays and you're getting bounces going your way. So I'd be really excited as a Bears team like you're, I see the path, I see the future. There's gonna be a lot of growing pains. Like I said, Caleb's learning a new offense, a very complex offense. This is year one. This is a five year plan. So you just won wins. You want to see a guy that can win like Justin Fields could not win. Justin Fields is never going to win these games. You guys have been winning. That's why you got a guy like Caleb Williams who doesn't have those scars, those wounds. He can win these games and not overthink it. Even if he's not doing much like that swift at the end there. That was really why I love your head coach where it's like he knows his run blocking scheme. He saved a couple plays he knew was going to work against Washington and it did. And they got those first. Where it's like sure. Did you guys get lucky in the fumble? Yes. Like if someone had the money line on this Bears team I saw dead a thousand way a thousand miles away, where it's like, oh, this is going to land on five. The professionals were right. For hammering this in the four and a half because like we said we didn't understand the movement. They got unlucky that we got lucky, the bounces went our way. That's, that's why we love betting. That's the best betting. These ugly dogs got away with one for sure that Bears game. So I get your hesitation on them but you know right now they're overvalued. But like we said, they're a team that knows how to win right now playing against a team that doesn't know how to win and a quarterback that doesn't know how to win. So five and a half. Obviously I'm going to be on the Saints. Am I going to be as big into them as I was last week? No, this is just playing the number against what I think is an overvalued Bears team. But yeah, the, the Bears with the way your guys defense is, especially against the run, who you to be catching -5 and a half against anybody, let alone a team that can run the ball like the Saints can. So just a bad number feels like. And yeah, like you said, the early movement was on the Bears professional when he's with the Bears. So that's why I'm just going to wait this one out. I'll take a position on the Saints case. It goes down for five and a half. But no, no, not a real big bet yet for me on this one. I just, I can't believe the line movement to be honest with you.
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B
All right, we're going to go from an ascendant team that makes their fan base proud, except for me, to a championship caliber team that is frustrating their fan base to no end. And maybe the single biggest cause for Simon Hunter's depression. Philadelphia at Minnesota. Minnesota is a two and a half point underdog.
- [30:35]
A
No, it's all Phillies. I've never been happier in life. Honestly. Life has truly never been better. I wish I cared more about the Eagles. Like I tried to have Giants fans texting me after that game because literally every guy I worked with in Jersey Shore, the TV show, they were Giants fans. They were all from Seaside Heights, Seaside park, all North Jersey guys. And I, I literally couldn't stop thinking. I said you guys watch that Saquon Doc, Like I really can't thank you enough for giving us Saquon Barkley. Greatest season potentially of my life. Guy set the all time record 2,500 rushing yards or all purpose yards and we got a Super Bowl. So I think I'm still just numb to it where it's like yeah I want the Eagles to be better. They're 4 and 2 at top of the division. It's Eagles fans are just too we're spoiled. So like yeah how he's made bad decisions. We got guys retiring right now. It's all negative on the Seagulls team. So my Simon says BET this week is the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half.
- [31:27]
B
It's Simon says presented by Hard Rock bet.
- [31:32]
A
Call me Simon.
- [31:34]
B
What do you want?
- [31:35]
A
I want to play a game.
- [31:37]
B
What kind of game?
- [31:39]
A
Simon says outline that I think is going to be moving. I think this is going to come down. Could easily see it get down to one and a half. Eagles have a ton of injuries that are unknown right now so Jalen Carter would be a big deal. I think he's gonna play. I don't think Quinton Mitchell is going to play which that to me is the biggest. Yeah like Koc is a genius at attacking teams weaknesses. He was already excited about the number two corner of the Eagles. Now he can be number excited about the number one and number two. I mean we'll see what they do about Cooper Jean. But like as much as I love the kid him one on one with Jefferson or Addison, that's not where you want Cooper DeJean playing. You want him as the second guy coming down or the guy covering the middle of the field, not the guy on the outside against two speedster. So it's a bad matchup. Bad number. This is still an Eagles team that's being priced as if they didn't have a ton of problems. And I think the public will battle. Why would the public be back in Carson Wentz, you know, not. Not that he hasn't looked, he doesn't look good. But I just think people are just not thinking. They're thinking this is a bounce back shot for this Eagles team where it feels like a Minnesota spot offensively and defensively. The problems Eagles have up front of the blocking, injuries, all of it. I don't know if this is the kind of game you get right against. So Gianni saying all the right stuff. He said that you've used extra time to try to fix this offense. You're lying to yourself. You think two to three days of extra time because they played on a Thursday is going to fix this offense. I just think they need to get guys back healthy on the offensive line. So yeah, it pains me to do. I got this line at a pick, it's two and a half. That's a key number. I'm going to give that out every time. So Simon says, Give me the +2/2 on this Vikings team.
- [33:27]
B
If you had a choice right now, would you rather have Nick Sirianni or Kevin o' Connell as your head coach?
- [33:39]
A
I can't turn my back on a guy that gave me a Super bowl ring. I'm telling you, Chad, I'm. You'll see, you'll get one. Not that's in the 1980s. It's the high of highs. It's like I wish I was more upset about this Eagle season, but it's like I'm still living in the past. I'm not gonna lie. Like, I watched that Saquon doc and then I literally rewatched the 30 minute Super bowl little mini version. So it's like it's Sirianni did it. I gotta give the guy credit. I hated him, but he was an idiot, a buffoon. Whatever he does, it works. So he's not hiring his best friends to be the O.C. not great idea. But we'll see what happens going forward. He. He to me, is the right man for the job. KOC couldn't even beat the Giants at home in the playoffs. That's what I'll say about him.
- [34:25]
B
You're so funny. It's like Eagles fans. The number of Eagles fans I know who have rewatched the super bowl, have watched the Saquon doc, have done everything like have just relived and relived and relived the glory. Look, I'm one to talk. I literally have a VHS of like the Bears NFL films 1985, hour long, you know, celebration of their season.
- [34:58]
A
You'll always have Devin Hester's super bowl.
- [35:00]
B
Return and I was there for that.
- [35:02]
A
Yeah, I've watched that clip a million times. I'm not even a Bears fan.
- [35:05]
B
It was. It was amazing. Totally amazing.
- [35:07]
A
It's the last time with the Flashes. That's why I love it so much.
- [35:09]
B
That's right. That's totally. Oh my God.
- [35:11]
A
Before iPhones.
- [35:12]
B
You're so right.
- [35:13]
A
Yeah.
- [35:14]
B
That's 100% accurate. By the way, Darren Revelle gave me that VHS tape. It was a gift.
- [35:18]
A
What a guy.
- [35:19]
B
You know? All right, look, the basic stats are true though. We don't know if Jalen Carter is going to play. We don't know if Quinyan Mitchell is going to play. But either way, this is a defense that is 21st in the league EPA per play when they are playing. So I think you're right about how it's being priced. Value is on the Vikings Here is there value Simon on the New York jets as two point underdogs hosting the Carolina Panthers.
- [35:53]
A
Oh, God.
- [35:55]
B
Winless teams. This is from killer sports. Winless teams as home dogs week seven or later since 1989. 48 and 39 against the spread.
- [36:05]
A
But look, I was hoping that was gonna be better.
- [36:10]
B
This is a trend. The law of averages, regression to the mean, whatever we want to call it in terms of this can't keep happening. Is the only reason to bet on the New York Jess this week. It's not even like sometimes when you're making a bet in situations like this, a gross bad bet, it's like you have to believe in the unseen. This is. I think we have to disbelieve what we have seen because what we have seen is so bad. The coaching miscues, the playing miscues, the strategic miscues, the utter incompetence. This isn't a team that's sort of been unlucky. This is a team that is truly horrendous and lacks any kind of skilled play at just about every position. So we know we're getting the Panthers on a high, we know we're getting the jets on a low. We've loved the Panthers the past couple weeks. How are we betting on the New York Jets? How are we doing it? How are we asking people to do it?
- [37:14]
A
This is a sharper square. Obviously the square side is easily the Panthers. The sharp sides.
- [37:20]
B
Of course it is.
- [37:22]
A
It is a game where if you've been betting with us on these ugly dogs, you do have to hold your nose, unfortunately and take the Jets. But you can be patient. Like we said, the number is moving. I believe Garrett Wilson might get put on IR or something. He might miss like a couple weeks. They're saying, yeah, he might have a real injury. So, you know, he's their best weapon. This should keep moving up. We should keep getting a better number. But confidence wise, it's. It's not there for me. But like Chad said, trying to be smart, trying to play the numbers. And I've talked about this whole race young home thing and I got to stick to it because I've like staked my name to it. Now that he is a different. They are a different team, a different offense on the road. How did the jets not get one here? But my God, do I hate this team. Like I'm trying to lie to myself, be like, well, maybe I'll have the confidence by Sunday to get this one. The contest. I just don't know if I'll get there because I just. They got. They got one last week. That should have been their win. They're so poorly coached, they couldn't even steal that one. So there's no doubt this game could. Things won't bounce their way like it did last week. Right? Everything was going their way last week and they still couldn't win that game outright. So get us up to two and a half, I'll have more confidence. Get me up to three, I'll really be flying. But at plus two, we are right now Hard Rock. I'll throw a little taste on it, but I'm not going to be too aggressive with it. Just no one's betting the Jets. It's. It's only. It's only us like this. That's what I'm saying. This is going to be the sharp side. The square side, no doubt would be this Panthers team, which, you know, as. As great as that win was last week.
- [38:54]
B
It.
- [38:55]
A
It's again, it's not that this Panthers team feels incredibly flukey at 3 and 3, but you see what you need that team offensively to be. To hold up against with their defense. So we'll see. Because again, Justin Field's not the best passer either, but it's like, come on, Fields, this is, this is a good matchup for you at home. You got to show up here, especially after you laid such a huge egg last week. So, yeah, it's. It's a gross one. And the more I talk about, the more sick I get thinking about taking this Jet side. But you gotta do it.
- [39:24]
B
You having an unnatural allegiance to losers is not like you. Everyone on the jets looks disoriented.
- [39:31]
A
Oh, my God.
- [39:32]
B
Yeah, that's how we're gonna be on Sunday if we bet this game.
- [39:37]
A
They're making Aaron Rodgers look good. Like there's a clip flying around. Now Rogers on the Pat McAfee show, like, after the fact and being like, why'd you guys even fly me out here if you're just gonna tell me you're going a different direction in like a minute conversation. Just how weird his whole interaction was with Aaron Glenn. Like, the guy was kind of a cocky asshole to a guy like Rogers. Just very bizarre, the whole thing. So just a train wreck. And we're betting it, we're leaning into it. Just, this is what we do.
- [40:05]
B
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock. Bet the pennants on the line. The lights are brighter, the pressure's higher. And one swing can change everything. You can be part of every pitch, every moment on Hard Rock Bet. New customers can place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also $150 in extra bonus bets. Plus, every day this week on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a profit boost for a postseason baseball parlay. There's new promos every day. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max, so your bet pays extra winnings. Here's a baseball parlay I like in the game. Coming up, Toronto run line. Toronto team total over. And George Springer did a home run. No matter what you like to bet, there's new promos every day. So if you're listening to this later, there's no bad day to download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. New England is visiting the Tennessee Titans with their new coach, interim coach Mike McCoy, formerly of the San Diego Chargers. In the mid teens, the Tennessee Titans are seven point underdogs. I think on Sunday night this game was at six and a half and you and I were both pretty excited about the Patriots just because of Vrabel. We thought this was a Vrabel game, obviously a revenge game for Vrabel who no longer gets to coach against the guy who took his place less than 23 games, 23 games ago. But I think, I think the coaching change actually changes everything because we do have the dead cat bounce in effect, which for those who don't know, it's getting that team that's pretty much dead but gets a little bit of a bounce when they get a new coach. Can it overtake the revenge spot? Is the dead cat bounce effect stronger than the revenge spot effect? Simon?
- [42:56]
A
I hate it. Yeah, because you're right, we were. I was legit excited to be on the Patriots the second week and I was at the point where I was like, even if it was minus seven and a half, I'd still try to dig in and take this game because this is the type of game where Rabel will never let off the gas. If he finds any type of advantage, if his Drake May is cruising or they find a running game which they haven't had all year, he will punish this Tennessee team and that ownership. Now, Chad just nailed it. Like Tennessee, you expect the spot for them to bounce back here. So I don't know what to do. I know it's the, the, obviously the, the sharp side is going to be Tennessee.
- [43:33]
B
100%. It's a Tennessee. To me, it's a Tennessee player. Nothing. I'm going to give you one. I'm going to give you a stat here, okay? Other than the dead cat bounce, teams playing their third straight road game coming off a win and a cover like the New England Patriots. 34% against the spread since 1989 and they got a big number to cover. Seven is just a big number.
- [43:56]
A
And it's two straight highly emotional last minute wins. Like, it wasn't like they rolled and it was easy in both games. It was very intense, high pressure, high leverage situations. That's a great stat. The four letter word company is the only book right now with a seven and a half. You got to grab that if you can, right? You got to grab Tennessee plus seven and a half. You can. But man, just, just like the Jets. Chad's nailing it where it's like, this is sickening, but we got to do it. I mean, I don't want to say what my model number is because people are going to talk to me because it's. This number is so off compared to it where it's like I, I have weight. Way too much. Overratedness, respect for this Tennessee team. I was just going to fade it anyway. Just like my dumbass computer doesn't know. This guy Callahan can't coach himself out of a box. This man is an idiot. But like you said, they, they, they, maybe they got rid of it. This is the bounce back spot. I'm gonna, I'm gonna agree with Chad here, but man, this is another sickening spot this week. A lot of, A lot of really sickening bets compared to last week. We were all chalk, which was fun. This week it's all ugly, ugly, ugly home dogs.
- [45:05]
B
It's so, it's really, it's. It's almost like we're going back to 2019.
- [45:13]
A
I mean, I wouldn't mind a bad week. Chad, I want to cut my hair. I can't cut it because we keep winning. I can't. Yeah, so it's like, wouldn't be the worst. Going to go two and three. But obviously I want to win.
- [45:24]
B
You know, it's funny. Last night my phone died in the middle of that Bears game, and I finally had enough juice. You know, I didn't feel like going to get my computer or anything. Finally had enough juice to start texting again at the end. But I, like, I. There were, you know, a hundred text messages with my friends about the Bears, and I didn't want to start jumping back in because I didn't want to jinx it because they were. They were driving right when I able. When I got some juice back, I'm like, I'm not. I'm not jumping in until this is over. It's killing me. I want to engage, I want to talk, I want to be excited. I'm just going to ignore it because I don't want to be the one to this up because it could have been so. I agree. I don't think you can ever get your hair cut again because I think we just got to keep winning if we keep winning. Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are one and a half point favorites. You like the Chargers on Sunday when it was one. It's moved in that direction. Like, I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I think, you know, the. If anything, it's just the Colts are overrated right now, so that's why you're getting value on the Chargers. We're not seeing anything in the Chargers that we like. Their offensive line is just terrible. Their defense is struggling. Everything about them looks like they are a mediocre team. And the Colts look great. So it's another one. We're just playing a number here. I don't have a ton to say on this game, to be honest. Like, it's not a game I'm targeting.
- [46:52]
A
Oh, my God. You'll come around on it. This is. This was almost Simon says. Seriously, almost Simon says. Yeah, like early, early in the week. But this is going to be the bigger Sharper Square game where the. The public is going to be all over this Colts team for good reason. We've talked. We love the Colts, too. They're five and one. But let's really dive into it. Like, this is a team that is playing at a really high level. But defensively, I think there is a good matchup here for this Chargers team and that's going against this Colts secondary that can be passed on. And, you know, hopefully Johnson's back for that offense because him, lad and Keenan Allen. That's a potent three. That's a really, really solid three. And you Know Videl a no name a guy they cut, you know the Chargers brought back to be the running back against Miami looked good, looked fresh run good legs running the ball. Obviously Colts run defense is better than Miami's run defense but at least there is some someone to turn to and hand the ball off to that can push the ball where much I shut on Hampton but there was weeks there he would just run to the back of his guys in the line. He just looked like a rookie trying to find his feet out there where it doesn't feel the same. But it really is just about this Colts defense that I just don't trust them. Think this is a good match for this Chargers team and you're asking a lot of Daniel Jones. You're asking him to keep being an above average quarterback. And we're into week seven here. So through all these weeks, like I said, he didn't play that great. Last week someone posted some crazy film. He was like 9 for 9 against the pressure like just out of this world really, really well. Playing really high level right now. Daniel Jones. So that's why I'm not making Simon says. I'm not banging the table here yet. But I can just tell you from talking to pros early in this week this is going to be a pro side. This Charger side Colts are due for a letdown. Like they're 5 and 1. Could easily be 6, 0. We've talked about that. That Rams game, how flukey of a game that was. This is just the way the way the NFL is, right. Like you're not going 15 1. Like a good year for this Colts team would be 11 and 5. Like they're going to drop some here. So this just feels like a spot with the Chargers that especially someone that lost a ton of money betting them last week. I don't with you, I don't really want to be on the Chargers either. I like their defense, their offense. Like you said. There's still a bunch of questions but my model has it at minus three. It's still minus one. Minus one and a half in most books. I'm going to grab that because I know the pros will bet it up to 2. I will be shocked by time people hearing this if a couple books don't pop to two because I know some really respected money that are going to come in on the Chargers today. So it's an interesting line and I'm excited to see what the public does with it because if it's like that Chiefs game where it was like 80% of the money was on a road dog. Again, I'll probably have to take a large position on the Chargers and hate myself while doing it. But it's like I can't avoid those spots in those situations. The, the public forces my hand and they don't know what they're doing and they're giving me a good number to bet into.
- [50:05]
B
The Chargers have really hurt our feelings two of the past three weeks. You know, we've been on a tear, honestly. And when we've lost, it's been whether we were in the contest or not, it's been because of the Chargers, which is excruciating to think about. To think that we're going back to the well on Justin Herbert. I guess. I guess. Okay.
- [50:35]
A
Like, I know it's, it's gross.
- [50:38]
B
Okay. Can I interest you. You said we're not doing anything. Sort of favorites, Chargers. A little bit. I'd like to interest you in the Denver Broncos who have the visiting New York Giants. And the Broncos are seven point home favorites. And believe it or not, I think they're undervalued. I like the Broncos here. I like playing favorites that are defined as good teams, which the Broncos are. They got a winning record through six weeks. They barely won last week. They're going against a team that just won big. That is a historically winning proposition. And I think any sort of advantages we think the Giants have, whether it's Jackson Dart and his mobility or Camp Scatterboo and his dynamic nature, I think a lot of the excitement that the Giants have shown that people have been enthusiastic about. They've won two games at home, they got crushed on the road. They won against a depleted team. In the Chargers, they won against a struggling defense. In the Eagles, they are not going against a struggling defense. In the Broncos, they are going against a legit. We are fully healthy. We are awesome. We can do whatever we want, especially against a rookie defense. Nick Bonito. Nick Bonito could be defensive player of the year. Pastor Tane was defensive player of the year. I, I like, I wanna, I, I wanted to find a way to not back a seven point home favorite with Bo Nix as the quarterback. Couldn't do it. It's the Broncos.
- [52:30]
A
Yeah, I, I took Sunday night, took a piece of the Giants because they were plus seven and a half and I just, I thought that was a good number. You might get a six and a half, Chad. There's a couple out there, so.
- [52:39]
B
Yeah, yeah, I know.
- [52:40]
A
This could get bet down to a spot. You like it? My fear of it Is. It's just. Which has been my issue with Denver all year is the. Is Bo Nicks, like the numbers aren't good. He's inconsistent. Is his feet. Everything he's done, like his footwork has regressed from last year. There's just. That's the big negative part where you're right like this Denver defense every week can win them and keep them in games. They're just dominant. You know, nine sacks last week. A lot of those are on just the fields. But it's also. That's how good they are where it's like they're just. We talked about this, right? You know, having a shutdown corner. You can bring five because you have a guy that you'll need a double ever. You always can just have the one on one shutdown. So can't hit your play. I won't disagree with it yet because it's. I really. My only stance on the Giants was because of the number at seven and a half. At six and a half. Even at seven, I could be talking this Denver team. It is. It is a nice spot against this young team that you would normally think extended time like they had since Thursday is good for a team. For someone like them that's super immature and doesn't know how to handle winning. Probably not the best. I can't. Can't imagine how they handle those extra days and how they've handled practice this week compared to a Denver team that has to feel like they lost. And I think Sean Payton treated that way in the locker room. It wasn't smoke cigars riding around London on their bus. It was kind of a lot of yelling. We got lucky. We need to steal that one. Let's get the hell out of here and get back to Denver type of game. So I'm with you. It's. You don't expect them right of a letdown after international game like we saw with Cleveland last week. They're just not the same team. So I can get there if it gets six and a half at seven. I'm indifferent as we sit here right now.
- [54:29]
B
Yeah, I actually in my notes, I'm like, I'm waiting till six and a half. I would take the seven if I feel like it's not going to get there. If I see the juice start to move in a direction that shows it might go up to seven and a half again. But I really like the Broncos here. I just do better. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a situational mismatch. I Think it's a scheme mismatch. Bo Nix has generally played better against bad teams. This is a bad team last week set aside right Teams coming off. Teams coming off an upset win is a home dog of more than four points. That is the New York Football Giants 43% against the spread since 1989. Killer sports. How's that make you feel better?
- [55:20]
A
No, but it sounds right. Sounds right.
- [55:23]
B
Green Bay the perpetually disappointing Green Bay packers against the perpetually disappointing Arizona Cardinals who either lose when we need them to cover, they cover when we need them to not cover. I don't know if Kyler Murray is going to play. I don't know if Marvin Harrison is going to play. I don't know if the backup running back who became their starting running back who dropped the ball at the end zone against the Titans is going to be playing hard game to handicap because we just don't know who the players are going to be.
- [55:53]
A
Yeah, I guess. I guess I'll avoid it. Honestly I wanted to be on Green Bears.
- [55:58]
B
So did I.
- [55:58]
A
A good number for Green Bay. But I'm with you. There's too much unknown for me to bet into this at this point. Surprisingly I would feel better honestly if it was Kyler Murray. But we've talked about Kyler Murray as a dog. It's the only time to back him. Super profitable. I just can't separate my hate probably from this Arizona team and the Screen Bay team. At some point they are going to be undervalued by the general public. Right. That's. They just. They haven't put together a couple weeks now. They have not put together enough for me to be confident enough to bet in them as a big favorite. But this is a. This is a good number. Like my model is at seven and a half. They're six and a half. I should be Ben Green Bay but I just don't know. Just same way I thought about the Bills where it's like the Bills they were getting too much respect on the team. They're currently not. I think it's the same for Green Bay where it's like this feels like a number based off still just public reception wise of what they've done in the past where I honestly thought this would be like four and a half and I was gonna have great value in Green Bay. I could give them out but at six and a half I'll still give them out. It's still a good number but I just. I don't know what to do on with this one yet. Not knowing the starters are.
- [57:12]
B
It's interesting you say if Kyler was a starter, you'd feel better because I would too, like Jacoby. I just, I feel like with Jacoby Brissette, the floor is obviously significantly higher and sort of consistent and the ceiling is much, much lower. Like you kind of know what you're going to see.
- [57:36]
A
We talked about what this year this has happened with these backups have started look good in game one and then just. Yeah, once they have a little bit of tape on them. Game two, they fall off a cliff because it's like you can't game script the same 20 plays. You can't run his favorite 10 plays again, like it's just doesn't work. So that, that's another reason where it's like kind of interesting with the Brisette in the spot that we've seen this year better basically every team. The second start by the backup has been pretty much a disaster. Other than Jackson Dart or I guess even Jackson Dart's second start.
- [58:09]
B
His second start was a disaster. Yeah, he looked totally like a rookie and then he got to go up against a terrible defense in the Eagles, so, you know, he looked like a Hall of Famer again. He's a lucky guy. All right, well, let's put a pin in that one because I want to talk about it on Thursday in case we get news about Kyler or by the way, maybe we start feeling differently. Like just talking about Jacoby Brissette in his second game as a backup. You know, I'm starting to think, is Micah Parsons just going to have his breakout game as a Packer? Washington at Dallas. Dallas is a two point underdog. There's actually a book out there that has Dallas at 1 1/2 if you're interested in the commander. So go shop around and like, I get the number here. The commander showed a lot of flaws last night. Against better teams than the Bears, they would have been blown out. Wouldn't. Wouldn't have been a question at all. So to me, I think you can just narrow down the difference between last week and this week to better quarterbacks. Dak is playing like an mvp. He just is. He's playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And if he had a defense that was remotely complimentary, the Dallas Cowboys would possibly be the odds on favor to win this division right now. Instead, they're two point underdogs at home because their defense is tragic. I don't really have like a strong opinion on this one like I do other games. I'd still lean Cowboys.
- [59:33]
A
Here, burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart of the Lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, for people asking about totals like. Like the under here, it's a gross under the total. Some books, Hard Rock included, is at 55 and a half. So crazy divisional game. I get it. Both. Both defenses are bad. People expect a ton of points. You've seen divisional games can just be ugly and sloppy sometimes. And because these teams just know each other so well, it doesn't matter how bad their defense is or how banged up the defenses are, just can get really fluky in that way. And I am shocked how much respect professional money is coming in on this Cowboys team, because it's not just one book at one and a half, there's a ton of books.
- [60:24]
B
Oh, are there? That's been going on since we. Since we started the show then.
- [60:28]
A
So I honestly wanted to be on the commanders. Here I am like, Chad, I'll wait, talk to people, see what I'm missing. I just have them great as a hire, as a better team right now because of health. We're where, you know, think Terry McLaren's gonna be back for this game. Not the biggest deal if he's not, but it still would be an improvement. But the Cowboys, you go through their injuries. I don't know if they're gonna get any of these guys back. Like, it seems like it's gonna be another week for them, being incredibly banged up defensively and across the offensive line. So Dak, once again playing MVP level. I think he has 11 touchdowns, one pick in his last, like, three or four games. He's just been incredible. It's. It really is about the defense. So I get why the. The pros are coming in on this Cowboys team at two and a half. I get it makes sense for the early line movement. I'll be patient. Like Chad said, Washington is not a good team. I just think they're a better team than Dallas is right now. So this flips and I can get Washington as a dog. That's the position I'd rather be on. If you're trying to force it right now, grab the two and a half on Dallas. I don't hate it. You're joining the professionals early here on Tuesday, and they. Absolutely. They see something they really like in this Dallas side.
- [61:39]
B
I feel like I'm just sharp today. I'm on a lot of sharp sides.
- [61:43]
A
You are?
- [61:44]
B
Yeah.
- [61:45]
A
You're locked in.
- [61:46]
B
Locked in. Let's talk about the prime time games. We got a prime time spotlight. We're all going to try to watch them, even though they start, you know, at ungodly hours. And the only person who can stand for that, Simon, we know you're going to want to bet him. So we want to package our games into a primetime spotlight. First one up, Atlanta at San Francisco Sunday night. The 49ers are 2 1/2 point favorites at Hard Rock. Bet. Still a lot of threes out there. I would like to play the Niners here. It's really a question of Brock Purdy. I think I'm just waiting to find out is he going to play or not. Kyle Shanahan, I said on Monday that he was hopeful Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall would both be doing positive things and making progress in practice this Wednesday. So we'll know more for Thursday's show. Atlanta's defense, totally legit. Totally legit. They're doing great things. I just feel like I'm going to fade a team that just beat the Bills on in prime time because I know I'm getting probably at least half a point or a point of value on the other side.
- [62:55]
A
I don't know about that Atlanta defense. They gave up 30 to Carolina at 27 in Mariota when he was backing up for Washington. So I do have questions. They did look good. They played well. Honestly, Josh Allen, just an off night. I mean, there's nothing more brain didn't hear in the old guy in the back corner of the sportsbook saying, josh Allen's got weak legs now. Too much sex, being married. It's like, dude, what are you talking about, man? What are you talking about? He just had an off night that was a disaster from the get go. So I, I don't know what to do with Atlanta. I can't get a read on them. I'm like, you. I was like, initially, don't we just back the 49ers here? Especially now that it's moved to two and a half. This was three. It's now two and a half.
- [63:35]
B
Yes.
- [63:36]
A
I feel like that's where we're supposed to be. And I'm a sucker if I go the other way and I take Atlanta. But I don't know, it's like, like you just said, Atlanta's offense is clicking their defense as bad as they can be. They had moments in that game where they looked really competitive. But yeah, everything in my body is just telling me 49ers is probably the right side here. But once again, this is life without Fred Warner, what is this going to be like?
- [64:04]
B
Chad, that's a great point. I totally forgot now.
- [64:07]
A
And Bosa.
- [64:08]
B
Yep.
- [64:10]
A
Am I my model not accounting enough for you can survive the Bosa loss. You cannot survive losing Fred Warner. I mean, now you're going against arguably the best running back in football and Peshawn Robinson. It's like disaster, disaster, disaster. It's just I feel so bad for him. So I'm trying to find reasons to back this 49ers. You know, I think I'm slowly talking myself into this Atlanta side and that maybe the value isn't caught up yet to this, the decimation of all these injuries. And even if Purdy does come back and Ricky Parcels does come back and Kittle does come back, that's going to be a huge improvement to their offense. What do they have left defensively? They've lost. ARG will be the best player, most important player in all football to a defense that couldn't have lost him. So maybe, maybe we'll be good luck and I can avoid this one, but something tells you I'm not going to be able to avoid it. And I'm grabbing the two and a half probably when we get off this call on this Atlanta team.
- [65:05]
B
Oh, man, you nailed it. I totally forgot about Fred Warner. I was so focused on Brock Purdy, the Niners. I mean, obviously they'll be able to clean up some of this during practice this week, but they lost that game arguably because of communication issues. When Fred Warner went out, like there was at least one touchdown and multiple plays that did not get covered because they were not communicating and guys who were sort of in new positions, no disrespect to them, just didn't know what they were supposed to do and got confused by the motion. So that's tough, man. I wanted to back the Niners. I hate the Falcons. I hate the number. I just don't think. It's like, I think Bijan is great. I'm a little bit down on Penix. Like he is too often getting caught up when his first guy isn't open.
- [66:04]
A
This is rookie year, though. I told you that coming in the year he hit three totally last year.
- [66:07]
B
Totally. But I feel like. I feel like they're getting. They're getting graded a little too high because of how good their rush game is and because Bijan, the rest of the world, is catching up to what a lot of professional betters have known for a while, that Bijan is legit top three player in the NFL with what he can do. And last night he was spectacular. But I worry that they're still overrated.
- [66:30]
A
That's fair.
- [66:39]
B
This Monday night doubleheader, I'm just so mad about it. I just really am. Tampa Bay at Detroit. Detroit minus four and a half. It's the game one of the doubleheader. I'm very excited to hear your opinion on this game. As the true blue Baker backer that you made against, against the odds, against the professional betting community, against everything that is sane and holy, you have been backing Baker week after week after week and been rewarded for your loyalty. Four and a half. The numbers move from five and a half. This is a Detroit spot if there ever was one in a vacuum. And I'll explain what I mean. But before I get any further, I just want to hear your opinion.
- [67:26]
A
Yeah, I talked a little Sunday night that I. I saw the line. I was like, oh, my God, I'm gonna have to back Detroit, aren't I? And surprisingly, only real bet I made is the under in this game. Total, I think was 53 and a half. And it's come down to 53. Still like that under this. This really is about. This has to catch up to Tampa. Now. If Mike Evans comes back, that is a big deal for that offense because that's just something. Even if he doesn't stretch the field like he used to, that's a guy in the red zone that just against these young corners, backup corners that the structure team will have, he will win one on ones and Baker will give him multiple chances to win that one on one. He knows where his money is made. So that, to me is a big thing. If he comes back. I think he is because the early line movement has been towards this Bucs team. It's gone.
- [68:15]
B
He is expected to come back. He definitely is coming. Yeah.
- [68:18]
A
It's down to four and a half now. So, you know, Detroit's got injuries, they got guys getting suspended. You expect. Expect man Campbell historically bounce back game against a Baker team that, yeah, this is technically a Baker line. This is gritty. Baker usually covers backdoors. This number. He is so due for a bad Baker game three pick Baker game. Like, we know that he has that in his bag. It's. It's Baker. So it's all there for the bounce back. Detroit shockingly make this number minus six and a half. So, like, can't believe it. It's. It's. It's really about the injuries to this Bucs team, I believe, and all the injuries they've had compared to Detroit, who does have Injuries. But historically, their offense in these spots just roll teams. And I'm gonna dive into the trends and stuff, but I just feel like every time Campbell has a day where the fourth downs don't work like the previous game, the next game they go five for five on fourth downs or whatever it is. I know I'm probably just making that up, but it feels that way because he's a 70 cover. Like they didn't cover last game. Usually these are the spots they bounce back and cover, so. I know, I know, Chad. It's. It's sickening against my guy Baker. He's been so good to me. He's one of the few guys who I've just been betting every week, and it's just. He's just, you know, don't need to watch. Cause he's going to win it for me. But I do watch because I love, love the ride. But yeah, this is. This is Detroit number Detroit line. And I'll probably end up on that side.
- [69:47]
B
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because I didn't want to have a fight about this because I love Detroit here. I'm worried about, you know, the lack of corners and Brian Branch, who has. Has already been suspended. He can appeal. He might. He might be able to play this.
- [70:02]
A
Weekend, but he's going to lose that appeal.
- [70:04]
B
I think. I think we got to expect that. He's not going to be playing this weekend. It's a Lions line. Are you kidding me? The Lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career. So this includes the Rams, but Mostly the Lions. 69% against the spread. This is the spot.
- [70:26]
A
Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.
- [70:32]
B
You gotta back the Lions here. I love the Lions here. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I was afraid, like, we're gonna have to have a big debate about this. Now.
- [70:42]
A
If my model had it on Baker, I would have been on Baker. But I'm gonna trust my computer because I know I'm too close to it. It's like, I just love.
- [70:48]
B
You are very close to it.
- [70:49]
A
I'm betting on Baker. It's the best.
- [70:51]
B
You do. You do, and it's great. And it's a roller coaster. It's the difference between you and me. You love that ride. I want to stay off that ride. I want that ride to be smooth and easy from the start of the game.
- [71:04]
A
Never.
- [71:04]
B
I just want to be right. I don't want the ride on the way to being right. That's the difference. One more Monday night game.
- [71:15]
A
The crowd is psyched cuz all my rowdy friends are back for Monday night.
- [71:22]
B
Houston and Seattle. I said I had three games I was thinking about for Chad's choice. I went with Cleveland -2 and a half against Miami and the other game was going to be Denver and the and the Giants. But I, I wanted to wait for the six and a half. This was my other game. Houston plus three and a half. Monday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. This game's going on at 10pm Eastern. There's no way I'm going to be up for this game.
- [71:52]
A
Take a nap.
- [71:54]
B
What's that?
- [71:55]
A
Take a little nap midday. You'll be up late. Take a nap from like 1 to 2. Give you an extra 2 hour boost that night.
- [72:02]
B
I don't know but I gotta like, you know, I like to exercise in the morning and that's even better.
- [72:07]
A
Work out so hard you pass out after.
- [72:09]
B
That's best. It just, you know, it throws off my whole schedule. I bet the Texans at plus three and a half the first bet that I actually made.
- [72:18]
A
Look at Chad Sharp.
- [72:19]
B
Chad, look, we love the Seahawks after their win over the Jags and the defense is great. I think the Texans defense is actually better across like the cool kid metrics. The only area where the Seahawks are measurably better on defense than the Texans is against the run. The Texans are actually mediocre. But I actually in a weird way think that plays into an advantage for the bet because it means the Seahawks, who have historically been bad at home under Mike McDonald, like, like demonstrably worse at home. That plays into the bet because maybe they'll just try to run the ball more and chew up the clock and it's going to be a lower scoring game with more opportunities for the Texans to keep it close. So give me Houston plus three and a half. Boom.
- [73:08]
A
Yeah. Love it. Don't understand this line at all. Three. Three is right. Three. Two and a half feels right. I cannot believe we're getting the hook. I mean the total is 40 and a half. So anytime you have a low total like that between two good defenses and they're giving you the hook, don't think it, just bet it. Houston in this side this is, I mean we don't really talk putting Monday night games in. This could be one of them that we do because it's like an insane, insane number. Seattle is good. Are they three and a half points better at home than this Houston team? No chance. And I just looking right now at the early money, it is all. All Seattle. So we might. You might be able to get three and a half later in the week. It might hold there just because it's so much Seattle money right now. But have to think respected professional money will come and take a large position on this Houston side. It's just all the trends everyone's gonna have. The numbers Chad just talked about, they're just not the same team. Seattle at home, they're not what we were used to in the mid 2000s of just a dominant home field advantage has not been that way, especially the last five, six years. So three and a half with the hook. Can't avoid it. Love it. Give me Houston plus three and a half.
- [74:18]
B
I'm a little worried that we're going to have to have both Detroit and Houston in the contest. And just like it's going to be a miserable Monday.
- [74:31]
A
It'd be tough because we nailed obviously last night we went two and oh, we were on Atlanta and the. And it's like, are we really going to keep rolling the dice and think we're going to have just keep crushing these primetime games? Because primetime games, people probably have seen it. Dogs have been unreal on these primetime games these last couple weeks. I think, like, it's. And it's all outright wins too. Now I'm thinking, I think the Chiefs are the only favorite I can think of. That one. Is that crazy? I think that's right. So, yeah, it's.
- [74:59]
B
Yeah. The Giants on Thursday night.
- [75:01]
A
Love Detroit. Love Houston. This. This could end up being our contest, which is crazy.
- [75:06]
B
I like, I'm looking at our lineup right now.
- [75:09]
A
Got a lot of games we like though.
- [75:10]
B
We liked Cleveland minus two and a half. That was Chad's choice. Leaning New Orleans plus five and a half. So that'll be a conversation. Simon says was Minnesota plus two and a half.
- [75:25]
A
Oh, yeah.
- [75:25]
B
You know, we're going to talk about the jets as underdogs. We're going to. We're definitely going to talk about Tennessee as an underdog. You love the Chargers minus one and a half. You know, I, I really want to bet Denver. I'm hoping it gets to six and a half.
- [75:44]
A
Really? Sounds like I'm getting my hair cut this week.
- [75:47]
B
Oh, I know, right? We're too confident.
- [75:50]
A
Truly. I love a lot of these games, which last week I, I knew it was gonna be good week because I was like disgusted with the games.
- [75:55]
B
But that's hated every game. Last week. Like I, I felt like if I can get out with a winning week, I will be thrilled. And I, I pressed, I pressed bet with every bet. I had zero confidence. I'm like that's a loser. That's a loser. That's. It's like now you're just going to.
- [76:11]
A
Scored well my friend, giving away every.
- [76:13]
B
Bit of the, the money that we made this year. You know, like we're gonna pay attention to Atlanta. We love Detroit, we love Houston. Like we got seven or eight games that I feel good putting in the contest right now. And a mix of favorites and underdogs.
- [76:32]
A
Can't wait.
- [76:34]
B
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with these games I just discussed that we are zeroing in on. We'll have our sharp versus square head to head battle our brass balls. Some good candidates, good candidates for that one. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [77:01]
A
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B
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A
Everything in place and running like clockwork.
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B
Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger.
- [77:27]
A
For the ones who get it done. This is an iHeart podcast.