The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – NFL Week 9 Bets

Date: October 28, 2025
Hosts: Chad Milne & Simon Hunter
Guest Producer: Matt Mitchell
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharper Square," a segment of The Herd, brings Chad Milne and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter together for their weekly journey through the NFL slate, seeking sharp, actionable betting angles for Week 9. The episode is lively, full of analysis, banter, memorable rants, and—following the show’s tradition—a bit of gambling angst. They dive game-by-game, highlighting traps, market movements, and the intersection between public and professional betting narratives. This week also marks the return of beloved producer Matt Mitchell, who shares laughs, sound drops, and an infamous “voicemail” from Patrick Mahomes, before the crew gets down to serious NFL betting business.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sports Moments & Athletic Golden Age ([01:00–05:30])

• Debate over Greatest Sports Moments: Chad and Simon muse on the “greatest possible sports moment”—walk-off World Series homer, Super Bowl-winning TD, game-winner in NBA Finals, World Cup goal, or March Madness buzzer-beater. Both oddly pick the walk-off home run, citing baseball’s unique anticipation.
  • "It's about pace, it's about moment, it's about time... that last, slow jog around the bases just soaks up the victory like nothing else." —Chad ([03:11])
• Golden Era of Athleticism: Simon extols the current crop of transcendent sports stars—Ohtani, Wembanyama, Mahomes—calling it an era of "unprecedented athletic ability."
  • “Ohtani is just the ultimate. He's the greatest athlete probably we'll ever see in sports.” —Simon ([04:30])

2. The Return of Producer Matt Mitchell ([06:01–09:50])

• Matt Mitchell’s Homecoming: After a stint away, Matt returns, reminisces, and debuts a tongue-in-cheek “ominous” voicemail from Patrick Mahomes:
  • "Before this night’s over, I will kill. But before I kill you, I will make you suffer pain so unimaginable… When you wake up in hell, you won’t find peace. Because I’ll be there waiting for you again, Matthew." —Mahomes “voicemail” ([08:33])

3. Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Dolphins ([11:39–17:06])

• Game Analysis & Trap Potential: Chad considers betting the Ravens (-7.5) but Simon flags it as “trap week.” Both express surprise the line isn't moving despite heavy Ravens money.
  • Simon’s Take: Dolphins +7.5 is the only side worth considering since the market isn’t budging.
  • "This is the type of game that does trip up [the Ravens]... a short week on the road with Lamar out of rhythm. Feels like too much respect for a team from last year, not this year." —Simon ([16:21])

4. Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals ([18:36–21:32])

• Bears -2.5 Endorsed: The Bears have favorable injury reports vs. a depleted Bengals defense, especially if Flacco is not healthy.
  • "If you’re going to make an early bet here and you have to make a play, Bears -2.5 to me is the safest regardless." —Simon ([20:52])

5. Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots ([21:32–24:17])

• Wait on Injury News: The number moved on injury updates, but both hesitate to play it without more certainty on key Falcon players. Chad identifies this as another likely “trap spot.”

6. Chargers at Tennessee Titans ([24:17–27:28])

• Chargers (-9.5) Lean: Despite nerves around trusting LA, Simon pushes hard for the Chargers as fade material for the “train wreck” Titans.
  • "Fading this Tennessee team, it’s the best. They are just such a train wreck." —Simon ([26:34])

7. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Chad's Choice) ([27:42–34:22])

• Chad’s Choice: Lions -8.5
  • Chad delivers a long breakdown on Detroit’s home dominance, the mismatch for Vikings rookie QB, and the return of key Lions defensive players.
  • Simon joins the public backing: “Never wavered, always feel confident betting Goff as a big favorite at home, indoors... I love your Chad’s Choice this week.” ([34:14])
• Notable Rant: Simon unloads on Kirk Herbstreit’s comments about injured Vikings QB—a classic “get out of my sport” moment. ([32:32])

8. Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers ([36:48–39:35])

• No Bet at High Number: Despite recent Packers form, both avoid betting a -12.5 Green Bay line, pending more clarity on Bryce Young’s health.

9. Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers ([39:35–47:47])

• Colts -3 Is the “Sharp But Chalk” Play: Both see the Colts as undervalued juggernaut, refusing to trust the battered Steelers despite “rah rah Tomlin” magic.
  • Chad goes deep on Jonathan Taylor’s MVP-caliber run, lamenting the lack of non-QB MVP love:
    • “Jonathan Taylor has accounted for 3.9% of all rushing yards by a running back this season. His team is 7-1… it’s just ridiculous that we become such a quarterback league.” ([46:34])

10. San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants ([48:11–49:44])

• Both Tempted by 49ers, But: Line is fishy (Niners only -2.5) and Simon suspects the market’s up to something. Reluctant to back the Giants but “won’t force it.”

11. Denver Broncos at Houston Texans ([49:44–52:37])

• Texans Value Has Moved: Both snagged Houston +1.5 early, but the current Texans -1.5 spread is less appealing. Simon argues pros are undervaluing Houston’s defense and the market shift is telling.

12. New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams ([54:06–55:24])

• Avoiding a Huge Spread: With Saints QB uncertainty, neither host is laying -13.5 with the Rams.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders ([55:24–58:17])

• Classic Trap Alert: Chad confesses to betting the Jags -3, Simon says the line stinks and warns of a setup.
  • “All these games are so stinky how easy they are… and this is one of them.” —Simon ([58:08])

14. Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Simon Says) ([58:17–62:39])

• Simon Says: Chiefs -1.5
  • Simon’s best bet. He’s shocked by line value:
    • “I do not understand this Chief’s number. I thought this would be -3. My model has it -3.5!” ([58:33])
  • Chad: “This Chiefs team, defensively, offensively, they look so much better than last year. You never feel anxiety from them—just total confidence.” ([61:08])

15. Prime Time Spotlight

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders ([62:39–65:53])

• Number Play: Seattle -3.5 becomes public, stinky, but both hosts still lean Seahawks, acknowledging the Commanders’ weak pass D and questioning whether to trust Sam Darnold.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys ([66:44–69:46])

• Heads Split: Chad likes Dallas -2.5 ("right spot"), Simon prefers Arizona +3 if it gets there, citing Cowboys as unreliable favorites and Kyler’s success in Dallas.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad (on sports anticipation):
  "You hit that home run and it's, it's like 15 seconds of anticipation and glory, right? Because you know it's going out. The entire stadium is on pins and needles..." ([03:11])

• Matt Mitchell (Mahomes voicemail): "Before this night’s over, I will kill. But before I kill you, I will make you suffer pain so unimaginable..." ([08:33])

• Simon (on Titans): "Fading this Tennessee team, it’s the best. They are just such a train wreck." ([26:34])

• Chad (on Jonathan Taylor): "Jonathan Taylor is the most important player on this team right now and they're 7-1... and he's had 10 touchdowns in the last four games!" ([45:31])

• Simon (on Chiefs value): "I do not understand this Chief's number. I thought this would be -3. My model has it -3.5." ([58:33])

• Simon (rant on Kirk Herbstreit): "Get Kirk Herbstreit and his damn dog out of my sport. I am now officially totally out on this guy." ([32:32])

Key Bets & Lean Summary with Timestamps

| Matchup | Bet Lean | Key Points & Timestamps | |--------------------------|---------------------------------|-----------------------------| | Ravens @ Dolphins | Dolphins +7.5 | Trap week, line not moving ([12:50–17:06]) | | Bears @ Bengals | Bears -2.5 | Early sharp money, injuries ([18:36–21:32]) | | Falcons @ Patriots | Wait for Injury News | Inflated line, uncertain health ([21:32–24:17]) | | Chargers @ Titans | Chargers -9.5 | Titans a fade, injury issues ([24:17–27:28]) | | Vikings @ Lions | Lions -8.5 (Chad’s Choice) | Public side, matchup strength ([27:42–34:22]) | | Panthers @ Packers | Pass/Wait | Uncertainty at QB, huge line ([36:48–39:35]) | | Colts @ Steelers | Colts -3 | Colts undervalued, Taylor MVP chat ([39:35–47:47]) | | 49ers @ Giants | Lean 49ers, Line Fishy | Too “easy,” not forcing decision ([48:11–49:44]) | | Broncos @ Texans | Texans (prefer at +1.5), now -1.5 | Moved after injury, sharp support ([49:44–52:37]) | | Saints @ Rams | Pass/Avoid | QB uncertainty, huge spread ([54:06–55:24]) | | Jaguars @ Raiders | Chad: Jags -3, Simon warns trap | Stinky line, caution ([55:24–58:17]) | | Chiefs @ Bills | Chiefs -1.5 (Simon Says) | Huge perceived value ([58:17–62:39]) | | Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks -3.5 (begrudgingly) | Number has moved, trap concerns ([62:39–65:53]) | | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Chad: Cowboys -2.5, Simon: Arizona +3 | Only if right number, divisive game ([66:44–69:46]) |

Recurring Themes & Tone

• Trap Week: Both repeatedly warn listeners that many lines “feel off,” expecting market manipulation and “traps” set by sportsbooks.
• Risk Appetite and Bet Timing: Emphasis on injury news, line movement, and grabbing early value.
• Sharp vs. Public: The duo is self-aware about sometimes siding with the public in a season where "chalk" has often hit.
• Humor & Chemistry: Keeps things light with good-natured sparring, pop culture asides, and irreverent NFL media commentary.
• Interactive: Calls for audience feedback and engagement, particularly now that Matt is managing their social presence again.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode is a sharp, insightful, and highly entertaining rundown of the NFL Week 9 slate, framing betting as a minefield of potential trap spots. Chad and Simon blend humor with serious football analysis, giving actionable leans while stressing the need for flexibility (and skepticism!) as injury news develops.

If you need sharp angles on where the smart money has moved, which lines truly stink, and which favorites might—just this once—be worth following, this episode’s got you covered. It’s also packed with quotable rants, unexpected betting stats (including a mini-ode to Jonathan Taylor's MVP run), and the unique flavor only Sharper Square can deliver.

Next Steps:

• The crew reconvenes Thursday to finalize picks, survivor selections, and brass balls bets.
• Follow their YouTube/Podcast for deeper dive content and to enjoy Matt’s much-awaited sound drops.