The Herd with Colin Cowherd — Sharp or Square: NFL Week 9 Reactions

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: Sharp or Square – NFL Week 9 Reactions
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Release Date: November 3, 2025
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

This "Sharp or Square" episode provides an unfiltered, rapid-fire breakdown of a chaotic NFL Week 9 from a bettor’s perspective. Professional sports bettor Simon Hunter and Action Network’s Chad Millman sift through a brutal 1-4 betting performance, diagnose where and why things went wrong, and offer early leans and sharp insights into the coming week’s NFL slate.

Main themes include:

• The pain and randomness of betting NFL favorites on a volatile “trap” week.
• In-depth reviews of the wilder games (Bears-Bengals, Chiefs-Bills, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, and more).
• An honest reckoning with betting mistakes, luck (good and bad), and lessons learned.
• Early lines and sharp betting takeaways looking ahead to NFL Week 10.

Key Segment Summaries & Insights

1. Opening Thoughts — A Brutal Week for the Pros (01:47)

• The duo commiserates over going 1-4 in their picks, revealing the ongoing challenge in NFL betting, especially when heavy favorites collapse.
• Notable Quote:
  “So much exceptional work today, except by us. 1-4 on the day… Dude, rough. Rough.”
  — Chad Millman (02:13)

The One Bright Spot — Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots (04:30 – 06:48)

• The only win came from Atlanta’s improbable comeback against New England, thanks to freak turnovers and lucky breaks.
• Drake May (Patriots) flashes but makes crucial mistakes; Atlanta hangs in with gritty, opportunistic play.
• Memorable Moment:
  “That's why you bet the number. And try not to rationalize normal thinking.”
  — Chad Millman (05:21)

2. Where It All Went Wrong: Losing Bets Reviewed

Chargers at Titans — The Classic Trap (09:09 – 13:59)

• The hosts bemoan falling for the Chargers as big favorites — a public darling that let them down, again.
• Special teams disasters (pick-six, punt return TD) swing the game; backdoor cover for Titans.
• Notable Quote:
  “This is the exact spot when we always play the Chargers and it is the exact spot where they always let us down.”
  — Simon Hunter (09:21)

Lions vs. Vikings — Cold Start and Missed Opportunities (16:57 – 21:18)

• Lions flat from the jump, never recover from Vikings’ early surge.
• Jared Goff pressured relentlessly, Lions defense undisciplined, penalties extend Vikings drives.
• Memorable Quote:
  “Another game... just lines, whatever it was, they just seemed like they never got off the bus.”
  — Chad Millman (17:36)

Broncos at Texans — Bad Luck and Injury Woes (21:31 – 25:25)

• C.J. Stroud exits early; back-up Davis Mills is ineffective.
• Texans' defense excels, but red-zone failures and field goals doom them.
• Memorable Quote:
  “87 yards on offense total in the second half for the Texans. I watched every excruciating second…”
  — Simon Hunter (23:04)
• Chad points out: "Bo Nix keeps doing it—fourth quarter magic.” (24:41)

Chiefs vs. Bills — Mahomes Flat, Allen Dominates (27:45 – 31:47)

• Bills’ Josh Allen shines, Chiefs’ offense is stymied, marking Allen’s 5th regular-season win over Mahomes.
• The Chiefs uncharacteristically flat coming out of halftime — a line the hosts regret trusting.
• Notable Exchange:
  • “Mahomes 15 for 34 for 250 yards — just not going to get the job done.” — Chad Millman (29:15)
  • Producer Matt: “How about those Buffalo Bills?” (30:18)

3. Notable Game-by-Game Reactions

Jags-Raiders: Wild Ending and Overshadowed by Turnovers (37:20 – 40:10)

• Trevor Lawrence’s poor decision-making keeps Raiders in it.
• Cam Little’s 68-yard field goal record and Brock Bowers’ breakout game highlighted.

Bears-Bengals: Run Game Rules, Flacco Turns Back Clock (40:10 – 44:40)

• Joe Flacco, at 40, throws for 470 yards, but Bears win on late heroics.
• Chicago’s ground game explodes; late-game chaos and luck factor big.
• Memorable Quote:
  “You see these little moments where you’re like, this is why this guy is the number one pick.”
  — Chad Millman on Caleb Williams (41:11)

Steelers-Giants: Daniel Jones Meltdown (44:40 – 45:26)

• Steelers feast on Giants’ turnovers; Daniel Jones posts “epic meltdown” stat line—3 picks, 3 fumbles.

4. Shame & Hero of the Week (45:53 – 50:49)

• Shame Awards:

  • Simon: Texans offensive coordinator Nick Cali for “no imagination, no execution” in the red zone.

    "A lack of understanding of your personnel in that Texans locker room... inside the five yard line."
    — Simon Hunter (47:08)

  • Chad: Himself, for ignoring his own gut and falling into “trap week” favorites.

    “It was like being in a bad dream that you know what’s about to happen but you cannot control...”
    — Chad Millman (47:34)

• Hero Awards:

  • Chad: Simon, for championing the Falcons pick.
  • Simon: Drake London (Falcons WR) — “He was clearly the difference… making every single play they needed.”

5. Reckoning & Early Week 10 Leans (51:18 – 63:35)

• Full accountability for the 1-4 week; recognition it could have been 0-5 but for Atlanta heroics.
• Discussion of games they missed (e.g., Panthers covering a huge spread, Jags upset drama).
• Notable Quote:
  “We just, for some reason, we were stuck on those four games. We had loved them since Tuesday… I felt like such an idiot.”
  — Chad Millman (34:09)

Super Bowl Futures Talk (52:15 – 55:02)

• Too early to commit, but current picks:
  • AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens if Lamar is healthy
  • NFC: Eagles, Rams (“doing it under the radar”), possible dark horse: Buccaneers

Early Leans for Week 10 (56:15 – 63:35)

• Detroit -3 at Washington — “public side,” but worth grabbing the number.
• Baltimore -3/-3.5 at Minnesota — Love Lamar vs NFC teams.
• 49ers +3 at home vs Rams — Watch QB situation, but pros expected to back 49ers.
• Pittsburgh +3.5 at Chargers — Chargers' offensive line banged up.
• Tampa -2.5 at home vs Patriots after a bye — feels like the number moves up.
• Carolina -5.5 vs Saints — fading Saints' rookie on road
• Atlanta +6.5 vs Colts (international game) — trust Falcons indoors/neutral site.
• Green Bay +2.5 vs Eagles — public will be all over Philly; pros may grab Pack if it rises.

Noteworthy Quotes & Moments

• On NFL Betting Luck & Pain:
  “It's the bad luck we had today. That's just why we always talk about we bet these ugly dogs. Because that's the exact game you dream of, right?”
  — Simon Hunter (11:11)

• On Quarterbacks & Overpaying:
  “Don’t pay your quarterback crazy money... It’s just raw talent by T. Higgins and these other pieces.”
  — Chad Millman, on Flacco torching Bengals defense (43:00)

• Perfect NFL Chaos Week:
  “A week where all the worst teams covered... that’s how it goes. NFL right? There’s no teams or like Tennessee that year they went 1-15 or 1-16 against the spread. Bad teams cover ugly spreads.”
  — Simon Hunter (40:10)

Top Takeaways for Listeners

• NFL favorites, especially when everyone loves them, are prime “trap” spots — tread carefully.
• Sharp bets often lose ugly (Chargers, Lions, Texans this week), and luck (or lack of injuries) plays a massive role.
• Trust ugly underdogs, monitor public sides, and don’t chase oversold narratives.
• Pros are constantly evaluating recent performances, but one bad week is just variance — recalibrate rather than overreact.
• Early lines: look for value before lines move, but remain wary of heavy public favorites.
• Lessons in humility, patience, and learning from every betting week.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:47] — Episode starts, recapping their rough 1-4 week
• [04:30] — Falcons miracle cover vs Patriots dissected
• [09:09] — Chargers at Titans (classic trap spot)
• [16:57] — Lions vs Vikings flop and lessons
• [21:31] — Broncos at Texans: defense, injury, missed chances
• [27:45] — Chiefs vs Bills: Allen outduels Mahomes
• [37:20] — Jags vs Raiders: chaos game, Brock Bowers shines
• [40:10] — Bears beating Bengals, Flacco’s wild game
• [44:40] — Steelers-Giants: Daniel Jones’ meltdown
• [45:53] — Shame & hero of the week picks
• [51:18] — Wager postmortems and what they missed
• [52:15] — Super Bowl future speculation
• [56:15] — Early Week 10 sharp betting leans
• [63:35] — Close-out, key recap of their picks

Closing Thought

This raw, honest post-mortem of NFL Week 9 is a masterclass in how sharp bettors deal with variance, misreads, public trap games — and how humility and adaptability are crucial for success. Packed with sharp leans, tough lessons, and actionable insights, the episode is a must-listen for any NFL bettor or sports fan seeking the unvarnished truth behind a wild football weekend.