The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets"

Date: January 7, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Theme: In-depth breakdown of every NFL Wild Card Weekend game, with a focus on betting angles—point spreads, totals, trends, and actionable advice for sharper or square bettors.

Episode Overview

Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter, fresh off a strong regular season, dive into all six NFL Wild Card Weekend matchups from both betting and fan perspectives. The episode blends statistical insights, betting system discussion, and personal anecdotes. The duo debates sides, totals, playoff betting trends, and the psychology of betting "sharp" vs "square." They also touch on playoff futures and favorite long-shot bets. Tone: conversational, irreverent, and packed with actionable betting wisdom.

Regular Season Recap & Contest Update

Key Points:

• Both hosts celebrate a strong season: only five losing weeks, 13 winning weeks.
• Shout out to Chris Sampson (@NFL Bets Tracker) for tracking their proprietary bets—Rock & Hard Place, Chad’s Choice, Simon Says.
  • "We went 51-39 with the five faves… Rock & Hard Place: 61%… Chad's Choice: 56%." — Chad (06:48)
• Circa Survivor heartbreak: praise for a contestant losing $3 million after an improbable Bengals loss.
• "Five losing weeks, Chad, I’ll take it any time…It was a fun, real fun season." — Simon (06:25)
• Big contest ongoing on Hard Rock Bet: six entries tied for first.

Playoff Programming & General Betting Trends

Key Points:

• All six wild card games outdoors—public leans to betting 'unders' in outdoor playoff games.
• Millman: "If you’ve just been blindly betting outdoor unders since 2004 in the wild card games, 49-23. So 68% win rate." (20:23)
• First-time starting playoff quarterbacks ATS in the Super Bowl era: 20-39-1, a 34% cover rate. (19:18)

Game-by-Game Breakdown

1. Rams at Panthers

Sat, Jan 10 – 4:30pm ET
Spread: Rams -10
Total: 46.5

Key Insights

• Simon shocks with “Chad’s Choice” on Rams -10:

  "Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet: Los Angeles Rams, minus 10." — Simon (12:04)

• Both agree Panthers are a historic outlier—never have won as a favorite, yet made the playoffs, always as a dog.
• Analytical edge: Rams are "probably the best team in the playoffs based on what they do offensively, defensively, strength of schedule." — Simon (13:13)
• Historical Trends:
  • 10-point home dogs (like Panthers): rare, biggest in 25 years.
  • Rematches later in season: favorite is 7-2 ATS if they lost the first meeting (17:21).
  • McVay as large road favorite: 34-10 straight up, 26-18 ATS (18:21).
  • First-time QB playoff woes (Bryce Young): 34% ATS cover rate.

Total Analysis

• Millman: “Really love the unders this week… If the total’s above 41 in outdoor wild card games, the under is 42-14.” (21:13)
• Expect defensive struggle: lean under 46.5.

Memorable Quote

• Chad: “I honestly thought we maybe would end up on the Panthers this week. That’s why I’m shocked to hear so early in the week you love the Rams this much.” (14:58)

2. Packers at Bears

Sat, Jan 10 – 8:00pm ET
Spread: Bears -1
Total: 46

Key Insights

• Oldest rivalry in football, only third-ever playoff meeting.
• Game swings between Bears +1.5 and Packers +1.5, indicates split pro betting action.
• Simon leans Packers: “This is the exact team you want to be backing here… The Bears had a full-on brawl last week, their defense played what 60 snaps… now against a rested Green Bay team.” (23:26)
• Cites the perennial playoff experience trend:

  "That stat I gave out backs it up right? These first time quarterbacks, 20-40 their last 60 starts straight up." — Simon (25:45)

• Jordan Love’s health and Packers’ late struggles noted, but rest may help.

Total Analysis

• Both like the under, especially given outdoor/weather angle and both young QBs.
  • “This is a game I haven’t bet a lot of money into… Obviously I am invested in the under.” — Simon (25:45)

Trend Highlight

• First-time playoff QBs struggle; Bears’ playoff luck has been miraculous comebacks.
• Lean: Packers +1 (with a Moneyline parlay lean on Rams, Packers, Chargers)

3. Bills at Jaguars

Sun, Jan 11 – 1:00pm ET
Spread: Jaguars +1.5
Total: 52

Key Insights

• Matt Mitchell (producer/Bills fan): oozing confidence, dismissive of Jags.
• Simon: “And Josh Allen in the playoffs, in his career, on the road, 0 and 4 straight up and against the spread.” (29:35)
• Millman: “Wanted to be on the Jags… woke up thinking, what am I doing? Go against Josh Allen?”
• Playoff Josh Allen Trends:
  • 5-8 ATS in the playoffs
  • Bills lost 8 straight road playoff games
  • Defensive struggles on the road vs. non-Mahomes teams
• Jaguars offense hot, but tough to trust in a shootout as small dog.

Total Analysis

• Only playoff game where Millman likes the over:

  "There's a reason this game's 51… I'm gonna take that over. I just think it's gonna be a total shootout here." (33:13)

• Actionable system: Bills are 5-12 ATS first half this year; Jags first half might be sharper than full game.

Memorable Moment

• Mitchell joke: “I’m sure the Jaguars will treat Buffalo like… the corpse of the Colts and the Jets.” (33:26)

4. 49ers at Eagles

Sun, Jan 11 – 4:30pm ET
Spread: Eagles -4
Total: 45

Key Insights

• Line movement: Eagles from -3 to -4.5, some books to 5 before buyback.
• Simon is bullish on Eagles (if Lane Johnson cleared, he makes it Eagles -6.5).

  "Jalen Hurts at home in the playoffs… 5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS." (35:54)

• Key trend: Brock Purdy as a dog against Top 5 defenses in career, 0-14 ATS (per Simon).
• Injuries: Niners decimated, especially on defense and with CMC looking worn down.
• Millman: "I love this matchup with the Eagles team… just a more complete team. And since Jalen Carter's been healthy, the run defense has improved." (35:54)

Total Analysis

• Hammer the under.

  "Another game where the under just feels like the right number… I cannot believe this felt like it was gonna be a 42, 41 total." (40:48)

Quotes

• Simon: "I think this keeps going up...with Lane Johnson, it could close at six." (40:14)

5. Chargers at Patriots

Sun, Jan 11 – 8:00pm ET
Spread: Chargers +3.5
Total: 46

Key Insights

• Patriots: rookie QB Drake May; Chargers: Herbert, but missing two offensive tackles.
• Simon: "Herbert as a dog above 3, 13-6-1 ATS in his career and this season, shockingly as a dog he's had four straight-up wins." (41:52)
• Chargers defense the key, rookies on Patriots have struggled against winning teams at home.
• "If it was two and a half, maybe I could be talked into the Patriots." — Simon (44:31)

Total Analysis

• Both lean heavy on the under, total dropping from 47 to 46.5.
• "This feels like a defensive slug match." — Millman (45:29)

Betting Note

• Early money reportedly on the over, but both hosts think pros will push it back to the under—weather watch for possible Nor'easter.

6. Texans at Steelers

Mon, Jan 12 – 8:00pm ET
Spread: Steelers +3.5
Total: 39.5

Key Insights

• Millman: "Going back to the world. Simon says, give me this Steelers team plus 3.5 home dog." (48:41)
• Heavy historical trends favoring Tomlin/Steelers:
  • Tomlin on Monday night at home: 12-1 straight up (only loss during COVID, no fans).
  • Since 1992, Steelers are 23-1 at home on Monday night.
• Steelers defense is peaking, offense surging; Rodgers’ playoff experience cited as unlock.
• Simon: “Super Bowl-winning QBs as playoff underdogs since 2003: 72% ATS.” (50:04)
• Texans on the road/offense: Stroud never has covered or won as a road playoff dog, scored only 24 points in 2 career road playoff games.

Total Analysis

• Both like the under.

  “This is primed to be one of those 17-14 games.” — Simon (49:03)

Trends/Memorable Quotes

• Teams on 9-game win streaks entering the playoffs are just 6-19 ATS in the wild card round since 2002.
• "The Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night." — Millman (52:59)

Playoff Futures & Betting Strategies

• Steelers at 55-1 to win the Super Bowl; Eagles at 10-1 or 11-1.

  "This is by far out of all the teams, I think [Steelers] has the best value at 55-1." — Chad (55:11)

• Moneyline parlay angle: veteran QBs vs playoff first-timers.
• Open discussion on Rams/Bills, Niners/Eagles possible Super Bowl matchups from preseason bets.
• Emphasis on hedging and cashing out in later rounds as value increases.

Notable Quotes & Statistics

• "Every year, Jalen Hurts doesn't go 100 in the regular season and in the playoffs, he's a different player." — Chad (35:54)
• "If you just blindly bet dogs in the wild card round (since 2002), 61% win rate." — Simon (14:58)
• "First-time QBs in the playoffs are 20-39-1 ATS, a 34% cover rate." — Simon (19:18)
• "Tomlin on Monday Night...23-1 at home since 1992." — Chad (52:59)
• "Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night." — Chad (52:59)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Regular Season Recap & Contest: 01:03–09:50
• General Playoff Betting Trends: 19:18, 20:23
• Rams at Panthers: 11:32–21:46
• Packers at Bears: 21:46–27:39
• Bills at Jaguars: 27:39–34:02
• 49ers at Eagles: 34:02–40:48
• Chargers at Patriots: 40:48–45:29
• Texans at Steelers: 48:17–54:48
• Futures & Strategic Wrap-up: 54:48–61:02

Final Thoughts

• Heavy lean to unders in all outdoor wild card games except Bills-Jags (over).
• Strong “fade first-time playoff QBs” angle.
• Simon & Chad’s favorite bets: Rams -10, Steelers +3.5, Eagles -4 (“with Lane Johnson up to -6.5”), Chargers +3.5, and Packers ML.
• Playoff futures: Steelers longshot, Eagles value, plus parlaying veteran QB Moneylines.

For more betting breakdowns and wild card weekend picks, listen to the full episode or subscribe to "Sharp or Square" on your favorite platform.