The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharp or Square: NFL Wild Card Weekend Reactions"

Date: January 13, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman (A), Simon Hunter (B)
Episode Focus: Betting reactions to NFL Wild Card Weekend – deep dives into Bills-Jaguars, Niners-Eagles, Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Texans-Steelers, Chargers-Patriots.

Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" features hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissecting their brutal Wild Card Weekend betting experience. With humor and candor, they break down their missed picks, offer sharp insights on major NFL storylines, and preview the upcoming Steelers-Texans matchup. Listeners get a candid look at the psychology of betting, the agony of close losses, and what ultimately swung each pivotal playoff game.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Weekend Betting Failures: “Ball Busting” Outcomes

• Personal Accountability: The hosts kick off with self-deprecation about their 1-3 weekend performance, with a final hope resting on Steelers +3.5.
• Themes: Many games decided by special teams and missed field goals. Weather expectations went awry—forecasts of rain and snow never materialized.
• Quote:

  “If I could describe our first weekend of playoff betting as a team that we thought was doing well at the end of the season and then got their asses kicked in the playoffs, who would that be right now? ... It was ball busting.” — Chad (01:20)

2. Rams vs. Panthers (Rams -10.5): Ref Woes & Overlooked Underdogs

• Turnaround Moments: After a good Rams start, a crucial failed 4th down attempt changed momentum; Panther’s Bryce Young thrived under pressure.
• Officiating: Rams, normally the least penalized, flagged 9 times; controversial PIs benefitted Carolina.
• Notable Insights:
  • Rams defense is a liability despite Stafford’s heroics.
  • Weather predictions were irrelevant—no rain, perfect playing conditions.
• Quote:

  “Nine times [the Rams] were penalized in this game. ... The gods gave us a chance to enjoy another bet on the Panthers and I freaking blew it.” — Chad (09:56)

3. Packers at Bears (GB -2.5): Historic Comeback and Momentum Shift

• In-Game Drama: Packers blow a comfortable lead; Bears pull off a 25-point 4th quarter comeback, a franchise playoff first.
• Kicking Issues: Green Bay’s missed field goals and extra point turn the tide.
• Bears’ Future: Caleb Williams earns “Jumpman throw” acclaim; host Chad revels in the emotional high.
• Quotes:

  “Caleb scored 25 points in the fourth quarter. Doesn’t even sound real to say...” — Simon (12:12)
  “On what will ever forever be known now as the Jumpman throw... it’s the exact silhouette of the Michael Jordan Jumpman logo.” — Chad (17:01)
  “Winner of the week has to be Caleb Williams. Just because he preached it. He walked it. He did it.” — Chad (41:04)

4. Niners at Eagles (Under 44.5): Philly’s Collapse, 49ers’ Resilience

• Eagles Meltdown: Wide receiver AJ Brown is eviscerated for drops and attitude (“A.J. Clown”); coaching comes into question.
• Niners’ Grit: Despite injuries and bench players stepping up, Purdy leads a key 4th quarter drive.
• Eagles Fan Reaction: Complete meltdown in Philly; hosts reference viral memes and local angst.
• Historical Stats:
  • Eagles had four 3rd down drops—NFL record since tracking began (2006).
  • Teams with zero turnovers, 35+ minutes possession at home were 282-2; Eagles now one of the two losses.
• Quotes:

  “AJ Brown right now in Philadelphia is known by A.J. Clown. He is hated right now in the city.” — Simon (20:37)
  “This was not a Super Bowl winning team.” — Simon (22:09)
  “They had four drops on third down against the 49ers in the wild card round. That’s the most third drops the team has had ... since 2006.” — Simon (24:52)

5. Chargers at Patriots (LAC +3.5): The Justin Herbert Debate

• Main Critique: Herbert’s playoff pedigree questioned—time to throw was high, but he missed open options and made poor decisions under pressure.
• Coaching & Execution: Chargers failed repeatedly in key moments—scored just 3 points.
• Patriots Well-Coached: Defense was prepared, managed to exploit Herbert’s panic.
• Long-Term Assessment: Herbert now on “betting blacklist” for postseason reliability.
• Quotes:

  “Maybe it is. The lights are just too bright for Justin Herbert.” — Chad (31:05)
  “Herbert totally laid a neck here... in the playoffs, it’s got to be right up there on our big board for the rest of his career.” — Simon (32:39)

6. Bills vs. Jaguars: Allen’s Superman Show & Questionable Coaching

• Bills’ Resilience: Josh Allen’s performance compared to “Superman”; completed 80% of passes, carried the offense.
• Jaguars’ Shortcomings: Coaching mistakes (too pass-heavy despite run game success); kicker’s missed chip shot key to defeat.
• Bill’s Weaknesses: Still skeptical about Buffalo’s defense and Coach McDermott’s late-game decision-making; path forward is somewhat lucky.
• Quotes:

  “Josh Allen, he’s why we call him Superman... you can’t get over how great of a quarterback is.” — Simon (36:52)
  "If you’re so successful at it, no one got it. Why would you not kneel there and run 40 seconds off?" — Simon, criticizing McDermott (37:46)

7. Playoff Coaching Trends & Lessons

• Coach’s Impact:
  • Special teams and in-game decisions again proved critical.
  • Coaches like Mike Vrabel and Carolina’s staff highlighted as missed betting opportunities.
• Self-Flagellation: Hosts lament going against their tried-and-true betting mantras.
• Quote:

  “We out thunk and out talked and outmaneuvered ourselves into losses. So shame, shame, shame on us.” — Chad (39:05)

8. Final Segments: Shame & Hero Of The Week

• Shame: Both hosts call out themselves and, separately, AJ Brown for his on-field and sideline behavior.
• Hero: Caleb Williams for his clutch 4th quarter and newfound Chicago stardom.

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “Word is out, if you don’t have the right special teams, it don’t matter.” — Simon (04:07)
• “Puka drops a touchdown pass just before the end of the half. Puka doesn’t drop anything... that’s when I was like, dead bet. Time to move on.” — Chad (10:01)
• “The Loveland connection between him and this tight end, man, it’s crazy. 100 receiving yards for a rookie tight end.” — Simon (14:31)
• “This could be the change of the guard. Green Bay has owned you guys for 25 years here. Maybe this is the flip, Chad.” — Simon (15:15)
• “Eagles at home had seven. Seven penalties, 48 yards. I mean, what are we doing? Is there not a home field advantage in every way?” — Simon (22:39)
• “Teams with zero turnovers, 35 plus minutes of possession are 282 [wins] at home in NFL history or last 40 years. The two losses, the Eagles this past Sunday…and the Bills…in 2023.” — Simon (25:41)
• “Juwan Jennings, two [passing] touchdowns. Justin Herbert, two. God damn you, Juwan Jennings.” — Simon (42:55)

Key Timestamps for Segments

• Opening betting disaster recap: 00:18–04:22
• Rams-Panthers deep dive: 05:23–10:01
• Packers-Bears “Jumpman throw” & Bears optimism: 11:01–18:24
• Niners-Eagles debacle, Philly in crisis: 19:30–25:41
• Chargers-Patriots, Herbert under fire: 30:33–33:35
• Bills-Jaguars, Allen’s heroics and McDermott’s deficiencies: 34:53–39:05
• Shame segment/Hero of the Week: 39:05–41:41
• Contest summary & final Steelers-Texans preview: 41:41–43:03

Original Tone & Language

The episode kept an irreverent, brutally honest, and self-deprecating tone. Banter between Chad and Simon was candid, with open admittance of bettor’s regret, frustration, and occasional joy ("waking up as a Bears fan and I am elated” – Chad).

Conclusion

This edition of "Sharp or Square" offers a unique window into the agony and occasional ecstasy of NFL playoff betting. The hosts’ vulnerability, keen football analysis, and ability to laugh at themselves make for an engaging hour of betting talk for both squares and sharps. If you missed the wild card action or just want sharper wagering perspective, this recap has you covered.