The Herd with Colin Cowherd (Volume Podcast Network / iHeartPodcasts)

Episode: Sharp or Square – Sharp Conference Championship NFL Playoffs Bets: Patriots-Broncos & Rams-Seahawks

Date: January 23, 2026
Hosts: Chad Milton & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This special “Sharper Square” episode—hosted by betting experts Chad Milton and professional bettor Simon Hunter—dives deep into the NFL Conference Championship matchups: Patriots at Broncos and Rams at Seahawks. The duo breaks down where the sharp (professional) and square (public) money is landing, discusses the unprecedented turbulence in coaching across the league, and debates their best bets, props, and strategy angles. Listeners get a raw, in-the-trenches perspective on what really matters in playoff betting, including matchup dynamics, market movement, rest disadvantages, injury insight, and sharp-vs-square divides.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter: Pure Football Fan Therapy

• Chad and Simon share the emotional high of their teams' recent victories and the obsessive nature of die-hard football fandom.
• Chad’s son asks, “What did you talk about all day?” to which Chad replies: “Are we going to win this game? We’re winning this game. Will we win this game? Are we going to be champions?” (03:09)

2. Coaching Carousel Chaos

Timestamps: 04:28–10:45

• Simon: Enthralled by the volume and shock-factor of this year’s coaching changes: “This year just feels so unique … the big names. McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fired, Harbaugh was fired.” (05:52)
• Brian Flores Case: Discusses Flores’ loyalty to Minnesota’s DC role, turning down better offers, and insight into coaches “controlling their destiny” and the financial escalation of coordinator jobs.
• Spotlight on Patience: Respect grows for coaches like Ben Johnson waiting for ideal situations rather than jumping at the first head coaching opportunity.
• Ownership and GM Dysfunction: The Buffalo Bills' owner’s press conference is described as “a blowtorch to about six, seven years of really good grace” (09:08), and league management is under scrutiny for shifting blame and mishandling franchise direction.

3. Sharp Calls: Where the Pros and Publics Stand

Timestamps: 11:39–14:07

• Patriots at Broncos:

  • “Big money, real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver.” —Simon (11:58)
  • Line has moved from 6 to between 4.5–5 after sharp action; most pros hammering Denver, but Simon admits, “It’s making me a little nervous” due to overwhelming agreement.
  • Pros have also come in heavy on the over (originally 40.5, now 42.5), betting that weather will be benign and both QBs turnover-prone.

• Rams at Seahawks:

  • Public is on the Seahawks; sharp action “split”—pros like the Rams at +2.5/+3, but the public and some sharps still backing Seattle.
  • Under is favored by Seattle-backers, whereas Rams-backers expect a potential shootout.

4. Patriots at Broncos: Deep Dive

Timestamps: 14:15–28:21

Key Lines and Market Movement:

• Broncos originally +5.5/6, now down to 4.5 due to sharp action.
• “Everyone I respect in the industry, they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half … the line move in the Broncos direction from a professional point of view was just too big.” —Chad (16:13)

Quarterback Analysis:

• Drop-off from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham “is not as dramatic as the point spread is allowing” (21:05)
• “Sean Payton backup quarterbacks in his career [are] 17 and 5. He is not afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He’s not afraid to let loose with backup quarterbacks.” —Chad (21:37)

Matchup Angles:

• Patriots’ defense elite vs. the run, so “Stidham is going to have to throw the ball so many times.” (21:05)
• Dobbins likely return important, but less critical against this run-stuffing NE front.

Prop Discussion:

• Heavy interest in Franklin TD/reception props due to rapport and practice reps with Stidham: “Those type of connections … he’ll throw into coverage to a guy like Franklin” —Simon (18:31)
• Both hosts like the Stidham over interceptions prop (“That’s probably real chalky of us, but right away … it’s like that.” —Simon, 28:59)

Trends & Historical Notes:

• Patriots never won playoff game in Denver: “0 and 4 straight up, 0 and 4 against the spread.” (25:27)
• Rest/offensive line and Denver’s defense against Drake May’s questionable pocket presence highlighted as decisive factors.

5. Rams at Seahawks: The Analytical Tug-of-War

Timestamps: 35:44–48:43

Market and Betting Angles:

• Line around Seahawks -2.5; market resistance at 3.
• “This is the peak Rams … this is Ramsay right when they're just on an insane run of being the best team in football.” —Simon (37:39)
• Rams dominated both regular season matchups, but have major spot disadvantages.

Spot vs. Matchup: The Sharp Debate

• Rams face huge obstacles: third straight road game, coming off overtime, significant rest disadvantage.
• Simon: “Teams in those rest disadvantages … are one in eight straight up in this exact spot in the history of the playoffs.” (39:01)
• “If Sam Darnold [was] fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way I feel about Denver ... pounding the table with the Rams team. The more I look at this one, the more I dive into … can they overcome the injuries ... this Seahawks team has the advantage in the trenches.” —Simon (41:18, paraphrased)

Matchup Focus—Who Has the Edge?

• Rams have not lost by more than three points outside a fluke all season.
• Chad: “If this line gets to three at any point, I would highly recommend … wise guys … are taking the Rams here.” (44:39)

Rest/Motivation Facts:

• Seahawks earned the 1-seed, have rest and health; Rams exhausted, injuries mounting.
• “You have to go find other areas ... the rest advantage is so heavily skewed to the Seahawks.” —Simon (47:24)

6. Actionable Bets, Props & Strategy

• Main Bets/Opinions:

  • “Pull up those pants and be a man. Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's ... all my money so far.” —Simon (48:56)
  • “If [the Seahawks-Rams] line gets to three at any point ... wise guys ... are taking the Rams.” —Chad (44:39)
  • For sharp heavy Money Line play, take Seahawks straight-up, not ATS.

• Prop Bets:

  • Troy Franklin anytime touchdown (multiple mentions, strong host conviction).
  • Jarrett Stidham over pass attempts (set by Chad at 31.5).
  • Stidham over 0.5 interceptions. (“That’s probably real chalky of us, but right away when you read that, it’s like that.” —Simon, 28:59)

• Parlay Suggestions:

  • Denver +4.5 parlayed with Franklin anytime touchdown.

7. Betting Industry Update

Timestamps: 52:28–53:57

• Simon shares info about the newly-blocked U.S. gambling loss deduction bill.
  • “If you're into this stuff and like me, you care about because it does affect our livelihood ... I'm telling you, next year, come tax season, you're going to lose your mind. We have to pay 10% on your losses.” (52:36)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sharp Overload:

  • “Big money, real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver ... It’s making me a little nervous.” —Simon (11:58)

• On Coaching Chaos:

  • “This year just feels so unique ... the big names. The fact that McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fired, Harbaugh was fired. Yeah, for just as a bettor ... I thought it would just be all Conference Championship conversation this week and it’s been a lot of that, but a lot of coach talk. ... It’s pretty wild.” —Simon (05:52)

• On Patriots-Broncos Line:

  • “The drop off from Bonix to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread is allowing.” —Chad (21:05)

• On Rams-Seahawks Spot:

  • “If you're betting the Rams, you are betting on a 25% chance of winning type of spot. That's how bad the spot is ... In your lifetime, the next 50 years, if you continually bet the Rams side, you're, you're, you're the sucker they're getting.” —Simon (46:43)

• On Rest vs Matchup:

  • “This time of year? Always the spot. Just because I can’t get over how important those numbers are ... the rest advantage is so heavily skewed to the Seahawks team. That's why I keep beating people over the head with it.” —Simon (47:24)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Coaching Carousel/Ownership Chaos: 04:28–10:45
• Sharp Market Moves ("Sharp Calls" segment): 11:39–14:07
• Patriots-Broncos Deep Analysis: 14:07–31:41
• Rams-Seahawks Breakdown: 35:44–48:43
• Betting Legislation Update: 52:28–53:57

Summary Table: Main Bets and Props

| Game | Sharp Lean | Public Lean | Strong Bets/Props | |---------------------|---------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------| | Patriots @ Broncos | Broncos (pros)| Patriots | Broncos +4.5 (or better); Franklin TD prop; Stidham o31.5 pass attempts or o0.5 INTs| | Rams @ Seahawks | Rams (+3), split at 2.5 (pros)| Seahawks | Lean Seahawks (spot); Rams at +3; Money line Seahawks for big bettors |

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon deliver a rare, honest, and data-rich breakdown of the two remaining Conference Championship games, ultimately urging listeners to respect playoff “spots” (rest and travel factors), smart market movement, and the limits of player/model-based analysis in January. Their prop and parlay convictions (especially on Troy Franklin and the Broncos) offer actionable insight, while their candor about nervousness when the sharp consensus becomes too loud is a refreshing window into the uncertainty of high-level betting.

For contest players:
Sides, totals, and main props are recapped in the latter third (Patriots-Broncos: Broncos +4.5; Troy Franklin TD prop; Stidham over attempts/INTs; Rams-Seahawks: wait for +3 on Rams, consider Seahawks money line). Final picks to be solidified Sunday morning on their pregame show.

Direct and memorable, Simon’s final wisdom:
“If you continually bet the Rams side, you’re the sucker they’re getting.” (46:43)

For real-time updates, contest picks, and the full Sunday betting rundown, follow Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify!