The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharp or Square: SHARP NFL BETS Week 10"

Podcast Date: November 7, 2025
Podcast Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This "Sharp or Square" episode is a deep dive into NFL Week 10 betting, with professional bettor Simon Hunter and The Action Network’s Chad Millman evaluating moving lines, sharp calls, and where the wise guy and public money are landing. With notable trade deadline news and injuries driving market shifts, the duo walks through their process for narrowing down the top five contest picks, providing betting wisdom, professional insights, and actionable advice for listeners—especially as they debate sides where public and sharp money diverge.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wild Line Movements & Trade Deadline Fallout

[01:06]

• Chad sets the scene: "There's so much news impacting the lines since the trade deadline and there's also just been general, massive line movement overall since we did our show on Tuesday. Freaking wild."
• Major team changes (eg. Jets’ defensive trades) are causing rapid odds shifts.

2. "Sharp Calls": Where Pros Are Betting

[02:04]

• Simon details feedback from fellow professional bettors:
  • Chargers: Significant pro money, highlighted by "a lot of pros love the Chargers" [02:38].
  • Rams: Pros taking positions here too.
  • Commanders: Moved the line down, pros backing them.
  • Patriots: Surprising professional support, but Simon prefers Tampa.
  • Jets, Miami, Houston: All receiving serious sharp attention.
  • Bears: Notably sharp side, driven by weather and Giants' vulnerabilities.
  • Raiders vs Broncos: Pros like the Raiders, while hosts love Denver.
  • A lot of week’s games are seeing professionals on sides the public might not expect.

3. Deep Game Breakdowns & Betting Edges

A. Raiders at Broncos – Sharp vs. Hosts

[03:57]–[07:36]

• Pros prefer Raiders due to divisional dog angle and skepticism about Bo Nix as a large favorite.
• Hosts love Denver:
  • Simon: "I just think defensively, schematically, they can take away Bowers." [06:32]
  • Chad: "This is one of the games that made me start to feel like...I’m feeling confident." [07:36]

B. Bears vs. Giants & The Weather Effect

[08:00]–[12:09]

• Sharp money on Bears: Line movement up to 4.5 then back to 4 at Hard Rock, indicating respected play.
• Weather potentially favors Bears’ run game vs Giants’ atrocious run defense.
• Chad notes, "Such a Giants number. It's brutal." [12:09]

C. Carolina vs. Saints – Too Many Points?

[12:12]–[14:22]

• Panthers are 0–10 as a favorite, but hosts still feel Carolina ML is safest bet.
• Simon: "It just spooks you. I'll probably end up just taking a large position with Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game." [13:21]

D. Browns at Jets – Jets Sell-off, but Still a Play?

[14:22]–[20:22]

• Jets lost Sauce Gardner (to Colts) and Quinnen Williams (to Cowboys), plus benching Quincy Williams.
• Line swung from Jets -2 to Jets +2/+2.5.
• Chad: "We were betting when we liked the Jets the other day against Dylan Gabriel. Why wouldn't we still be betting against Dylan Gabriel?” [16:01]
• Simon: Emphasizes the psychological impact of trading key players, but is still "betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is." [18:52]

E. Texans vs. Jaguars – Waiting for the Number

[21:23]–[23:26]

• Both want Houston as a dog; Simon expects line could reach +3 due to public Jags support.
• Simon: “Trying to avoid this if I can, because it’s like, I’m not going to force this one unless I’m getting a really good number.” [22:04]

F. Patriots at Buccaneers – Love for the Bucs

[24:17]–[28:46]

• Despite sharp money showing interest in New England, both hosts love Tampa -2.5 under the key number 3.
• Simon: "I can't believe we're getting away with this. It feels like a very, very nice number..." [25:31]
• Chad: “Simon, you and I are the really smart group. That's the ball game. You and I are the smart group.” [28:06]

G. Cardinals at Seahawks – Brass Balls Dog of the Week

[28:46]–[36:21]

• Cardinals +6.5 (likely to hit +7) with Jacoby Brissett starting, Kyler Murray to IR.
• Chad: "We got what we wanted. Jacoby Brissette is starting and in what has to be the ballsiest...bet of the week." [29:13]
• Simon: Market systematically undervaluing Arizona; trend stats support the Cardinals even after a big dog win.

H. Rams at 49ers – History and Trends

[39:20]–[43:28]

• Line moved toward SF after initial Rams action, now SF -4.5.
• Shanahan vs. McVay: McVay is 1–7 ATS as a road favorite vs. Shanahan; SF 1–14 ATS after a SU win since Christmas 2023.
• Chad: "The Ners are the side. No fear. I don't care what anyone else is saying." [43:26]
• Notable quote: “Last 14 games in this rivalry, the favorite one to 13 against the spread.” [43:23] – Chad

I. Eagles at Packers – Tepid on Green Bay

[45:24]–[46:34]

• Green Bay trending as the sharp side, but injuries to skill positions create concern.
• Chad: “I don't feel as strongly about it either...” [46:34]

J. Bills at Dolphins – Miami Buy-Low Spot?

[47:51]–[50:06]

• Chad & Simon both lean Miami +9.5.
• Simon gives deep trends:
  • Josh Allen is 2–6 ATS as 7+-pt road favorite.
  • Tua is 9–3 ATS in second straight home games and 3–0 as a dog in that spot.
  • “This is his back-to-back. So his second homestand game, in his career, he’s ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.” [49:30]

K. Commanders at Lions – Public vs. Sharp

[52:02]–[54:34]

• Pros pounding Washington as the line drops from 8.5 to 7.5.
• Simon: “Goff and Campbell, after a straight up loss, 2–18 against the spread...They are on a 12 game covering streak after losing the previous game right now.” [52:14]

L. Steelers at Chargers – Chargers Surprisingly Sharp

[54:44]–[57:01]

• Pros on Chargers despite O-line injuries; hosts skeptical.
• Simon: “But the one that really jumped out to me about...Herbert and how great he's been in these night games...Herbert 16-9 against the spread, covering by 3.5 points per game in this exact night games type of game.” [55:44]
• Still, the hosts prefer Steelers.

4. Consensus & Contest Picks: Narrowing the Five

[57:01]–[58:02]
Chad predicts these games will be considered for their top five:

• 49ers
• Cardinals (brass balls bet)
• Houston
• Denver
• Jets
• Miami (“heavily leaning”)
• Maybe Green Bay

5. Favorite Bets, Parlays, & Survivor Picks

[58:02]–[60:08]

• Simon's Largest Positions: Denver, Dolphins, Buccaneers, 49ers, Cardinals (waiting for best lines)
• Underdog ML Parlay: Jets, Texans, Niners [58:55]
• Favorite ML Parlay: Panthers, Lions, Ravens, Bucks, Bears [59:19]
• Survivor Pick: Panthers, ("God, I can't believe I'm doing it" – Simon) [59:49]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On line movement chaos:
  "There's so much news impacting the lines since the trade deadline... Freaking wild. Absolutely freaking wild."
  — Chad Millman, [01:06]

• On sharp-vs-public:
  "I'm just making sure we're not missing something here because it's interesting. Like you said, this has not gone to three. I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday."
  — Simon Hunter (re: Tampa Bay line), [28:28]

• On their Brass Balls Bet:
  "We got what we wanted. Jacoby Brissette is starting...the ballsiest...bet of the week."
  — Chad Millman, [29:13]

• On sticking with process under pressure:
  "Simon, you and I are the really smart group. That's the ball game. You and I are the smart group. They should be worried about us."
  — Chad Millman, [28:06]

• On betting psychology after trades:
  "We have to remember these are human beings. How are they going to respond to what just happened from their front office? Like their front office basically just waved the white flag on the season."
  — Simon Hunter, [16:43]

• On Niners vs Rams trends:
  “Last 14 games in this rivalry, the favorite one to 13 against the spread.”
  — Chad Millman, [43:23]

• On Dolphins as home bounce-back dog:
  "This is his back to back. So his second homestand game in his career. He's ten and two straight up. Nine and three against the spread."
  — Simon Hunter (re: Tua), [49:30]

Timestamps for Important Games & Segments

• Sharp Calls / Market Moves: [02:04]
• Raiders at Broncos: [03:57]
• Bears vs Giants: [08:00]
• Panthers vs Saints: [12:12]
• Browns at Jets: [14:22]
• Jaguars at Texans: [21:23]
• Patriots at Bucs: [24:17]
• Cardinals at Seahawks (Brass Balls): [28:46]
• Rams at 49ers: [39:20]
• Eagles at Packers: [45:24]
• Bills at Dolphins: [47:51]
• Commanders at Lions: [52:02]
• Steelers at Chargers: [54:44]
• Parlay & Survivor Discussion: [58:02]

Closing Thoughts

• Simon’s heaviest bets: Denver, Miami, Bucs, leaning 49ers and Cardinals as lines improve.
• Parlay leans:
  • Dogs: Jets, Texans, Niners
  • Faves: Panthers, Lions, Ravens, Bucs, Bears
• Brass Balls Bet: Cardinals +6.5 (or wait for +7) vs Seahawks
• Fade or Follow the Pros? A constant dynamic, with the hosts leaning into their confidence even when the sharps diverge.
• Wait for Numbers: Many games in Week 10 worth monitoring for better value as public and professional money shifts lines.

Summary Tone: Candid, analytical, a playful edge (“brass balls” bet), and collaborative throughout as they toggle between data and "feel." Perfect for listeners seeking the "why" behind the bets, not just picks.

For the latest contest picks and real-time updates, Chad and Simon will be live streaming on Sunday morning and recapping every result Sunday night.

Feedback is a gift. Until next time—"let's be careful out there."