Sharp or Square – SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and More

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)
Segment: Sharper Square
Date: November 14, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter

Overview

This Week 11 episode of Sharper Square is all about grinding down NFL lines, dissecting smart ("sharp") and public ("square") bets, and whittling the hosts’ sprawling list of potential picks into their coveted “final five.” Chad and Simon bring their usual blend of stats, insight, banter, and self-doubt, exploring where professional bettors and the public are leaning—and where the edges hide—even as lines jump mid-show. It’s a feast of opinions for sports bettors looking for an edge in Week 11.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wise Guy Calls: Sharp Call Segment

[02:47]

The pros are pushing back on some host leans—Seattle in particular. Simon: “A lot of calls about the different matchups...the biggest one I got was our love for Seattle. We’re way off. Gotta get on the Rams.”
Panthers love from pros, but Simon wants to avoid that game.
Bills are getting sharp consensus, not the Bucs as the guys favored.
Heavy professional love hits Browns (+8.5) and Broncos. Lions/Eagles splits the pros.
Simon shocked at lack of Raiders support: “Maybe it’s because of the Monday game, but not too many opinions either way...”
Takeaway: The hosts adapt on the fly, often second-guessing their own leans based on sharp input.

2. Game-Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Line: CIN +5.5)

[05:23]

Chad: Bengals offense is a mismatch for Steelers’ suspect secondary. “How are they going to defend against an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who’s ageless?”
Simon reluctant due to weird line and Zach Taylor’s post-bye record (“He is 1-4 against the spread”) [07:59]
Discussion: Tomlin stats as a home favorite, Flacco’s ATS record vs Tomlin (9-4). Line feels "off". Memorable Moment:
Simon: “I’m going to join you. I’m going to bet the Bengals. But I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. I just. I don’t know, something just seems off.” [08:03]

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Line: HOU -6.5)

[10:44]

Both hosts jumping on Houston at -6.5, but note lots of pro money on the Titans (Davis Mills spot start).
Line moved off 7 due to Stroud’s likely absence. Simon: “Tons of bets and I’m sure Moneyline parlays and teasers now on this Texans team, but they’re fine with that position because they’re in the background.” [13:16]
Both agree they’re just “trusting this defense” rather than the backup QB.
“If it is official CJ is out, maybe this does get [down to] four, four and a half.” [12:56]

Packers at Giants (Line: GB -7)

[14:28]

Jameis Winston starts for NYG, prompting host love/trepidation.
Jameis gets a “Broadway musical interlude”—memorable soundbite [15:37]
Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB dude. It’s like all the betting...how do you not put in a small taste on Jameis? He is the full experience on Sunday. The oh no throws, the oh yes throws, the holy throws.” [16:01]
Simon: “I just thought this was a Green Bay spot… Yet to cover the season as a seven point favorite. So the public’s on the Giants, the pros are droning them.” [17:09]
Ultimately, a volatile “fun bet” they’ll likely avoid.

Buccaneers at Bills (Line: BUF -5.5 → -6)

[18:25]

Concern over Bucky Irving's injury impact on Bucs’ run game and Baker’s lack of scrambling, possibly indicating injury.
Chad: “I think they are a different team. Even though without Bucky Irving, we’re seeing that in the Trends. It could be a combination of the lack of play action and Baker not running the ball because he could be injured.” [22:55]
Josh Allen “bounce-back spot” after embarrassment, strong historical trend.
Simon: “Baker is 15-4 ATS as a dog… but he hasn’t gained a yard in three games.” [24:19]
Both hesitate to commit until more clarity.

Jaguars at Chargers (Line: LAC -2.5)

[24:52]

Both lukewarm. Jags at +3 is fine, but neither feels confidence past that.
Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistency, depleted Jaguars WRs cloud the outlook.
Simon: “Maybe it’s just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I just—I hate having money on them and I don’t trust them.” [25:46]

Rams vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

[29:39]

Dramatic wiseguy shift: “It’s probably the best game of the week… it’s honestly really heavy the money towards this Rams side…” [30:30]
McVay’s historic dominance—12-5 ATS vs Seattle, 11-2 since 2019.
Stafford “5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS against Seattle, covering by almost 7 points per game.” [32:19]
Stat: “When the Rams have a game with three penalties or less, next game 7-0 ATS since 2024.” [33:07]
Seattle is a public dog; Rams rush personnel and tight end mismatches are keys.
Chad: “I don’t want to be on the other side of the Rams and 13 personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has not been playing very well against tight ends.” [34:28]

49ers at Cardinals (Line: ARI +3)

[35:32]

Hosts like Cardinals +3, playing “the number,” even with Marvin Harrison Jr. ruled out (appendectomy).
“Can’t have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively.” [36:34]
“Gross game,” but principled dog ticket.

Browns at Ravens (Line: CLE +8.5 to +7.5) – Chad’s Choice

[40:22]

Lamar’s knee injury moves the number down, but hosts love the early price.
Simon: “If you’re already getting a banged up Lamar, and he does play, you’re handicapping him because he’s not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football.” [41:15]
Chad with home/road Browns D split stats: “They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road.” [43:52]
Still value on CLE above 7.

Chiefs at Broncos (Line: DEN +3.5 to +4)

[47:14]

Simon likes Denver’s defense bounce-back spot, though “leaking confidence” and worried about Bo Nix.
Sean Payton “bounce-back” stat: after two red zone drought games, 14-2 straight up in the next.
“I’ve taken a pretty large position on it at this point, but maybe…won’t put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick.” [49:24]

Eagles at Lions (Line: PHI -2.5)

[51:31]

Chad: “I bet the Eagles at two and a half… started to come around on the Eagles. You’re saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles.” [51:31]
Simon: Lions have dominant trends off a win, but lots of matchup edges for Eagles (DL finally healthy, Goff not as good outdoors/back-to-back road games).
Drama around Philly: “There has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama...I don’t think it matters. It’s all noise to me.” [56:54]
Simon compares Sirianni to John Madden—“all he does is win.” [57:41]

Raiders vs Cowboys (Line: LV +3.5) – Simon Says

[59:45]

Simon stands alone: “To me, Max Crosby…he’s just going to be a mental case in this game.” [61:01]
Cowboys D “too injured to fix effectively.”
Chad not convinced: “Raiders are tough, man, it’s tough.” [66:09]
Cites profit fading Big Favorite Dallas.

Panthers at Falcons (Line: CAR +3.5)

[61:32]

Pros love Panthers; unique fatigue/spot for Atlanta (OT in Europe, then no bye).
Simon: “Atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international. This has never happened in the history of football…for a Falcon that has so many issues.” [63:13]

Bears at Vikings (Line: CHI +3 to +2.5 during show)

[64:28]

Bears moving from +3.5 to +2.5 in real-time; hosts only want Chicago with the full +3.

Notable Quotes & Moments

Chad’s Jameis Winston advocacy:
“Jameis is your type of QB dude. It’s like all the betting...how do you not put in a small taste on Jameis? He is the full experience on Sunday. The oh no throws, the oh yes throws...” [16:01]
Simon, on QB volatility:
“Biggest sin in life is that Jameis is not like a top five quarterback in this league…he just has so much personality.” [17:09]
On Rams-Seahawks:
“McVay in his career: 12 and 5 against the spread against Seattle, and since 2019, he’s 11 and 2 against the spread…With Stafford: 5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS, covering by almost 7 points per game.” [32:19]
Simon’s stat for Eagles as drama magnets:
“Sirianni. He is John Madden…All he does is win and you got to respect it.” [57:41]
Chad on Philly:
“There has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama...I don’t think it matters. It’s all noise to me.” [56:54]

Quick Reference Guide: Main Games Covered (By Timestamp)

[05:23] Cincinnati-Pittsburgh
[10:44] Houston-Tennessee
[14:28] Green Bay-NY Giants (Jameis watch)
[18:25] Tampa Bay-Buffalo
[24:52] Jaguars-Chargers
[29:39] Seahawks-Rams ("Brass Balls" bet)
[35:32] 49ers-Cardinals
[40:22] Browns-Ravens ("Chad's Choice" bet)
[47:14] Chiefs-Broncos
[51:31] Eagles-Lions
[59:45] Raiders-Cowboys ("Simon Says")
[61:32] Panthers-Falcons
[64:28] Bears-Vikings

Final Tally: Top Leans & Parlay Ideas

(As of [66:07])

Top Positive Bets

Bengals +5.5
Houston -6.5
Rams -3 (“Brass Balls” Bet)
Browns +7.5/+8/+8.5
Eagles -2.5 (value below -3)
Panthers +3.5

Leaning/Watching

Bucs-Bills (wait on Baker news)
Broncos +3.5/+4 (nervous about Bo Nix)
Bears +3 (only at full field goal)

Underdog Parlay [67:28]

Carolina
Cincinnati
Arizona

Favorites Parlay [68:08]

Rams
Ravens
Houston
Green Bay
Philly

Tone & Takeaway

Millman and Hunter are at their best—funny, neurotic, stats-driven, and conversationally sharp. They vacillate between strong convictions (“Rams. You gotta bet it. McVay owns Seattle.”), sharp-sourced doubt (“I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. Something just seems off…”) and stats for everything, from penalty discipline to bounce-back trends. If you’re a bettor who wants to know where the pro money is, which teams are public darlings, and what angles nobody’s talking about, this episode is a goldmine of actionable insights—just be ready for some last-minute line moves.

For a quick cheat sheet of which sides the hosts are actually betting, stick to:

Rams -3
Browns +7.5/+8
Eagles -2.5
Panthers +3.5
Bengals +5.5
Consider Arizona, Houston, and parlay legs depending on line movement.

Closing Sentiment

“We got some decisions to make on Sunday.” [66:15]

Or, as they say:
“This has been Sharper Square...utterly painful human decisions in a total panic that we will regret the rest of the day.” [69:01]

Recommended for: serious bettors wanting both laughs and leverage on the Week 11 NFL board.

Sharp or Square – SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and More

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)
Segment: Sharper Square
Date: November 14, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wise Guy Calls: Sharp Call Segment

[02:47]

The pros are pushing back on some host leans—Seattle in particular. Simon: “A lot of calls about the different matchups...the biggest one I got was our love for Seattle. We’re way off. Gotta get on the Rams.”
Panthers love from pros, but Simon wants to avoid that game.
Bills are getting sharp consensus, not the Bucs as the guys favored.
Heavy professional love hits Browns (+8.5) and Broncos. Lions/Eagles splits the pros.
Simon shocked at lack of Raiders support: “Maybe it’s because of the Monday game, but not too many opinions either way...”
Takeaway: The hosts adapt on the fly, often second-guessing their own leans based on sharp input.

2. Game-Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Line: CIN +5.5)

[05:23]

Chad: Bengals offense is a mismatch for Steelers’ suspect secondary. “How are they going to defend against an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who’s ageless?”
Simon reluctant due to weird line and Zach Taylor’s post-bye record (“He is 1-4 against the spread”) [07:59]
Discussion: Tomlin stats as a home favorite, Flacco’s ATS record vs Tomlin (9-4). Line feels "off". Memorable Moment:
Simon: “I’m going to join you. I’m going to bet the Bengals. But I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. I just. I don’t know, something just seems off.” [08:03]

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Line: HOU -6.5)

[10:44]

Both hosts jumping on Houston at -6.5, but note lots of pro money on the Titans (Davis Mills spot start).
Line moved off 7 due to Stroud’s likely absence. Simon: “Tons of bets and I’m sure Moneyline parlays and teasers now on this Texans team, but they’re fine with that position because they’re in the background.” [13:16]
Both agree they’re just “trusting this defense” rather than the backup QB.
“If it is official CJ is out, maybe this does get [down to] four, four and a half.” [12:56]

Packers at Giants (Line: GB -7)

[14:28]

Jameis Winston starts for NYG, prompting host love/trepidation.
Jameis gets a “Broadway musical interlude”—memorable soundbite [15:37]
Chad: “Jameis is your type of QB dude. It’s like all the betting...how do you not put in a small taste on Jameis? He is the full experience on Sunday. The oh no throws, the oh yes throws, the holy throws.” [16:01]
Simon: “I just thought this was a Green Bay spot… Yet to cover the season as a seven point favorite. So the public’s on the Giants, the pros are droning them.” [17:09]
Ultimately, a volatile “fun bet” they’ll likely avoid.

Buccaneers at Bills (Line: BUF -5.5 → -6)

[18:25]

Concern over Bucky Irving's injury impact on Bucs’ run game and Baker’s lack of scrambling, possibly indicating injury.
Chad: “I think they are a different team. Even though without Bucky Irving, we’re seeing that in the Trends. It could be a combination of the lack of play action and Baker not running the ball because he could be injured.” [22:55]
Josh Allen “bounce-back spot” after embarrassment, strong historical trend.
Simon: “Baker is 15-4 ATS as a dog… but he hasn’t gained a yard in three games.” [24:19]
Both hesitate to commit until more clarity.

Jaguars at Chargers (Line: LAC -2.5)

[24:52]

Both lukewarm. Jags at +3 is fine, but neither feels confidence past that.
Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistency, depleted Jaguars WRs cloud the outlook.
Simon: “Maybe it’s just the Trevor Lawrence thing. I just—I hate having money on them and I don’t trust them.” [25:46]

Rams vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

[29:39]

Dramatic wiseguy shift: “It’s probably the best game of the week… it’s honestly really heavy the money towards this Rams side…” [30:30]
McVay’s historic dominance—12-5 ATS vs Seattle, 11-2 since 2019.
Stafford “5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS against Seattle, covering by almost 7 points per game.” [32:19]
Stat: “When the Rams have a game with three penalties or less, next game 7-0 ATS since 2024.” [33:07]
Seattle is a public dog; Rams rush personnel and tight end mismatches are keys.
Chad: “I don’t want to be on the other side of the Rams and 13 personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has not been playing very well against tight ends.” [34:28]

49ers at Cardinals (Line: ARI +3)

[35:32]

Hosts like Cardinals +3, playing “the number,” even with Marvin Harrison Jr. ruled out (appendectomy).
“Can’t have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively.” [36:34]
“Gross game,” but principled dog ticket.

Browns at Ravens (Line: CLE +8.5 to +7.5) – Chad’s Choice

[40:22]

Lamar’s knee injury moves the number down, but hosts love the early price.
Simon: “If you’re already getting a banged up Lamar, and he does play, you’re handicapping him because he’s not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football.” [41:15]
Chad with home/road Browns D split stats: “They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road.” [43:52]
Still value on CLE above 7.

Chiefs at Broncos (Line: DEN +3.5 to +4)

[47:14]

Simon likes Denver’s defense bounce-back spot, though “leaking confidence” and worried about Bo Nix.
Sean Payton “bounce-back” stat: after two red zone drought games, 14-2 straight up in the next.
“I’ve taken a pretty large position on it at this point, but maybe…won’t put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick.” [49:24]

Eagles at Lions (Line: PHI -2.5)

[51:31]

Chad: “I bet the Eagles at two and a half… started to come around on the Eagles. You’re saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles.” [51:31]
Simon: Lions have dominant trends off a win, but lots of matchup edges for Eagles (DL finally healthy, Goff not as good outdoors/back-to-back road games).
Drama around Philly: “There has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama...I don’t think it matters. It’s all noise to me.” [56:54]
Simon compares Sirianni to John Madden—“all he does is win.” [57:41]

Raiders vs Cowboys (Line: LV +3.5) – Simon Says

[59:45]

Simon stands alone: “To me, Max Crosby…he’s just going to be a mental case in this game.” [61:01]
Cowboys D “too injured to fix effectively.”
Chad not convinced: “Raiders are tough, man, it’s tough.” [66:09]
Cites profit fading Big Favorite Dallas.

Panthers at Falcons (Line: CAR +3.5)

[61:32]

Pros love Panthers; unique fatigue/spot for Atlanta (OT in Europe, then no bye).
Simon: “Atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international. This has never happened in the history of football…for a Falcon that has so many issues.” [63:13]

Bears at Vikings (Line: CHI +3 to +2.5 during show)

[64:28]

Bears moving from +3.5 to +2.5 in real-time; hosts only want Chicago with the full +3.

Notable Quotes & Moments

Chad’s Jameis Winston advocacy:
“Jameis is your type of QB dude. It’s like all the betting...how do you not put in a small taste on Jameis? He is the full experience on Sunday. The oh no throws, the oh yes throws...” [16:01]
Simon, on QB volatility:
“Biggest sin in life is that Jameis is not like a top five quarterback in this league…he just has so much personality.” [17:09]
On Rams-Seahawks:
“McVay in his career: 12 and 5 against the spread against Seattle, and since 2019, he’s 11 and 2 against the spread…With Stafford: 5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS, covering by almost 7 points per game.” [32:19]
Simon’s stat for Eagles as drama magnets:
“Sirianni. He is John Madden…All he does is win and you got to respect it.” [57:41]
Chad on Philly:
“There has been drama. I think Nick Sirianni attracts the drama...I don’t think it matters. It’s all noise to me.” [56:54]

Quick Reference Guide: Main Games Covered (By Timestamp)

[05:23] Cincinnati-Pittsburgh
[10:44] Houston-Tennessee
[14:28] Green Bay-NY Giants (Jameis watch)
[18:25] Tampa Bay-Buffalo
[24:52] Jaguars-Chargers
[29:39] Seahawks-Rams ("Brass Balls" bet)
[35:32] 49ers-Cardinals
[40:22] Browns-Ravens ("Chad's Choice" bet)
[47:14] Chiefs-Broncos
[51:31] Eagles-Lions
[59:45] Raiders-Cowboys ("Simon Says")
[61:32] Panthers-Falcons
[64:28] Bears-Vikings

Final Tally: Top Leans & Parlay Ideas

(As of [66:07])

Top Positive Bets

Bengals +5.5
Houston -6.5
Rams -3 (“Brass Balls” Bet)
Browns +7.5/+8/+8.5
Eagles -2.5 (value below -3)
Panthers +3.5

Leaning/Watching

Bucs-Bills (wait on Baker news)
Broncos +3.5/+4 (nervous about Bo Nix)
Bears +3 (only at full field goal)

Underdog Parlay [67:28]

Carolina
Cincinnati
Arizona

Favorites Parlay [68:08]

Rams
Ravens
Houston
Green Bay
Philly

Tone & Takeaway

For a quick cheat sheet of which sides the hosts are actually betting, stick to:

Rams -3
Browns +7.5/+8
Eagles -2.5
Panthers +3.5
Bengals +5.5
Consider Arizona, Houston, and parlay legs depending on line movement.

Closing Sentiment

“We got some decisions to make on Sunday.” [66:15]

Or, as they say:
“This has been Sharper Square...utterly painful human decisions in a total panic that we will regret the rest of the day.” [69:01]

Recommended for: serious bettors wanting both laughs and leverage on the Week 11 NFL board.

Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and more

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Summary

Sharp or Square – SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and More

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wise Guy Calls: Sharp Call Segment

2. Game-Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Line: CIN +5.5)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Line: HOU -6.5)

Packers at Giants (Line: GB -7)

Buccaneers at Bills (Line: BUF -5.5 → -6)

Jaguars at Chargers (Line: LAC -2.5)

Rams vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

49ers at Cardinals (Line: ARI +3)

Browns at Ravens (Line: CLE +8.5 to +7.5) – Chad’s Choice

Chiefs at Broncos (Line: DEN +3.5 to +4)

Eagles at Lions (Line: PHI -2.5)

Raiders vs Cowboys (Line: LV +3.5) – Simon Says

Panthers at Falcons (Line: CAR +3.5)

Bears at Vikings (Line: CHI +3 to +2.5 during show)

Notable Quotes & Moments

Quick Reference Guide: Main Games Covered (By Timestamp)

Final Tally: Top Leans & Parlay Ideas

Top Positive Bets

Leaning/Watching

Underdog Parlay [67:28]

Favorites Parlay [68:08]

Tone & Takeaway

Closing Sentiment

Summary

Sharp or Square – SHARP NFL BETS Week 11: Bears-Vikings, Seahawks-Rams, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles and More

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wise Guy Calls: Sharp Call Segment

2. Game-Breakdowns & Betting Angles

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Line: CIN +5.5)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Line: HOU -6.5)

Packers at Giants (Line: GB -7)

Buccaneers at Bills (Line: BUF -5.5 → -6)

Jaguars at Chargers (Line: LAC -2.5)

Rams vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet of the Week)

49ers at Cardinals (Line: ARI +3)

Browns at Ravens (Line: CLE +8.5 to +7.5) – Chad’s Choice

Chiefs at Broncos (Line: DEN +3.5 to +4)

Eagles at Lions (Line: PHI -2.5)

Raiders vs Cowboys (Line: LV +3.5) – Simon Says

Panthers at Falcons (Line: CAR +3.5)

Bears at Vikings (Line: CHI +3 to +2.5 during show)

Notable Quotes & Moments

Quick Reference Guide: Main Games Covered (By Timestamp)

Final Tally: Top Leans & Parlay Ideas

Top Positive Bets

Leaning/Watching

Underdog Parlay [67:28]

Favorites Parlay [68:08]

Tone & Takeaway

Closing Sentiment