The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharper Square – SHARP NFL BETS Week 12

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock, part of The Volume Podcast Network
Hosts: Chad Millman (A) and Simon Hunter (B)
Date: November 21, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Sharper Square zeroes in on Week 12 of the NFL, bringing listeners deep into the trenches of sharp (professional) and square (public) betting strategies for the week’s marquee games. Hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter dissect line movements, injury impacts, and where the sharpest action is shaping the slate. With their trademark chemistry and candor, they help listeners distinguish smart value from risky overreactions — all while narrowing down their favorite picks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sharp Calls Recap: Where the Pros Disagree

Segment Start: 05:57

• Houston (+6) @ Buffalo

  • Simon’s position: Likes Buffalo, but notes significant respected sharp money on Houston.
    • “A lot of really smart groups...have hit Houston at plus six. They just really like this number in the spot for them.” – Simon (06:09)
  • Chad: Prefers Houston due to defensive trust and Buffalo’s “miracle game” last week.

• Giants @ Lions (-10)

  • Surprise among sharps backing Giants, but Simon & Chad are aligned on Detroit.
    • “This feels like the exact smash spot that you want to get in on the Lions.” – Chad (11:44)
  • Data-driven angle: “When they’re above a four favorite and after a loss at home, 8-0 against the spread in this exact spot.” – Simon (13:00)
  • Public and sharps see Detroit as a reliable favorite in this spot.

• Colts (+3.5) @ Chiefs

  • Sharps split; some on Chiefs based on historic performances, others on Colts due to recent trends and Chiefs’ one-score game regression.

• Chiefs Struggles: Is the Aura Fading?

  • Chad: “Are we buying into an improving, better performing Chiefs team that is just getting unlucky? Or the Colts team that's...very good in these close games?” (26:44)
  • Simon favors Colts with the points, noting multiple metrics support Indy as the sounder side.

• Steelers @ Bears

  • Market moving towards Steelers, Bears’ injury uncertainty; strategic play depends on movement, injury news.

• Seattle (-13) @ Titans

  • Both hosts like Seattle, even as a big road favorite, but recommend caution due to the large spread.
    • “We just don’t take big spreads like this because you need a lot of things that go your way.” – Simon (10:51)
  • Advice: Play in teasers/parlays if hesitant on large spread.

2. Deep Dives on Noteworthy Spreads

Lions, Rams, Cardinals, Saints, etc.

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Timestamps: 11:40–14:00

• Lions off a loss, dominant at home versus weaker teams.
• Sharps on Giants surprise Chad; Simon unmoved, trusts historical trends.
• Noted: Giants’ defense in disarray, problems in run stopping.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. New England

Timestamps: 22:11–25:23

• Burrow’s surprise potential return compresses the line; Chad and Simon see Bengals as undervalued if Burrow plays, but warn market is speculative.
  • “If it is Joe Burrow, you know, a little worrisome because he is coming in cold...but I still think you’re getting a great number.” – Simon (22:59)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Timestamps: 26:13–30:32

• Simon trusts the Colts as underdogs, citing Chiefs’ negative one-score game regression. Chad notes ongoing sharp-public divide on K.C.
  • “They might have been 10-1 the Chiefs in one score games...this year they’re 0-5.” – Simon (27:34)
  • Historical angle: Chiefs favored vs. winning teams, but underlying performance not matching spread.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (Shador Sanders)

Timestamps: 32:24–33:42

• Shador Sanders lacks quick decision-making under pressure, huge O-line concerns.
• Raiders favored due to defensive matchup, Browns' poor road splits.
  • “He holds the ball forever in the pocket and he’s not a big scrambler...they’ve got a lot of injuries on the offensive line.” – Chad (31:04)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Timestamps: 35:47–37:38

• Fading the Jags on the road: Chad calls Cards +3 a prime spot, referencing advanced Pythagorean win metrics.
  • “I’m just fading the Jags here...the Jags should have about one fewer win and the Cardinals should have one more.” – Chad (35:56)
• Simon supports the underdog, citing Arizona’s offensive matchup against Jags’ vulnerable defense.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Timestamps: 38:30–41:00

• “Brass balls bet of the week” is Saints -1.5, mainly as a fade of Kirk Cousins and Drake London-less Falcons.
  • “It’s not because we think Tyler Schuck is all of a sudden a good quarterback...to me it’s only a bet against Kirk Cousins.” – Chad (39:00)

Cowboys (+3.5) vs. Eagles

Timestamps: 41:00–44:32

• Sharp, syndicate money heavily backing Dallas.
  • “A group I really respect...has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at...three and a half and at the four.” – Simon (41:51)
• Both public and pros seem aligned; line movement significant; Simon, despite being an Eagles fan, sides with the data and wise guys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at Los Angeles Rams

Timestamps: 45:07–49:08

• Chad likes Bucs as road underdogs, awaiting +7; Simon counters that T.B.’s offense is too depleted.
  • “You’re honestly making a bet strictly on Baker having magic and keeping this game close.“ – Simon (46:30)

Carolina Panthers (+7) at San Francisco 49ers

Timestamps: 49:08–52:10

• Both stunned at high line; Simon’s models “totally off,” sharp money pouring in on Carolina.
  • “This line does not make sense at all. The books are telling us that Bryce Young is going to lay an egg. That’s what they’re saying to us...I’m all over this Panthers one, but I’m trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy.” – Simon (50:12/50:58)

3. Favorite Bets & Notable Parlays

Timestamps: 55:02–57:32

• Simon’s Biggest Bets

  • Detroit -10 / -10.5
  • Cincinnati +7 / +6.5
  • Colts +3.5
  • Cowboys +3.5
  • Eyes on Rams and Panthers pending number movement

• Chad’s Biggest Bets (less overlap with Simon)

  • Raiders money line
  • Cardinals +3

• Underdog Parlay Ideas (56:25)

  • Cincy, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Cardinals

• Favorite Parlay

  • Raiders, Saints, Chiefs, Seattle (adjusted -5.5), Packers (add in for another parlay)

4. Sharp vs. Square Picks

Timestamps: 57:32–58:22

• Simon: Dallas +3.5 or Colts +3.5 (56:41/57:41)
• Chad: Raiders -3 (58:15)
• Survivor recommendations: Seahawks, Lions, Ravens (if still available), Packers as backup.

5. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On betting big spreads:
  “We just don’t take big spreads like this because you need a lot of things that go your way, right?” – Simon (10:51)

• On Chicago’s improbable success:
  “The Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season.” – Chad (16:58)
  “Are we a good team that is learning how to win? Or are we a mediocre team just getting the right bounces?” – Chad (17:29)

• On doubting his own team:
  “As an Eagles fan, I just don’t get what they're seeing here...I can’t believe as an Eagles fan they're saying we’re going to lose this game to the Cowboys.” – Simon (41:51)

• On lines that feel ‘too easy’:
  “I’m all over this Panthers one, but I’m trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy. And I’m missing something...” – Simon (50:58)

6. Important Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------|------------| | Sharp Calls Opening | 05:57 | | Big Line Movement Games, Lions-Giants | 11:40 | | Cincinnati QB/Line Discussion | 22:11 | | Colts at Chiefs Discussion | 26:13 | | Browns at Raiders Breakdown | 32:24 | | Jags at Cardinals Breakdown | 35:47 | | Saints-Falcons Brass Balls Bet | 38:30 | | Cowboys-Eagles Syndicate Alert | 41:51 | | Buccaneers-Rams Split | 45:07 | | Panthers-49ers Too-Good-To-Be-True? | 49:08 | | Favorite Bets & Parlay Building | 55:02 | | Sharp vs. Square, Survivor, Outro | 57:32 |

Summary Table: Top Bets and Sharp Sides

| Game | Sharp Side | Notes | |-----------------------------|--------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Bills @ Texans (+6) | Houston | Professional heavy, despite Davis Mills concerns; defense trusted by Chad | | Giants @ Lions (-10) | Detroit | Home/Loss spot, Campbell/Goff ATS trends, don’t trust Giants’ interim situation | | Colts (+3.5) @ Chiefs | Colts | Chiefs’ one-score regression, public/wise guy split, underlying Indy trends | | Bengals (+6.5) @ Patriots | Cincy (if Burrow plays) | Value with Burrow, but risk is QB mystery | | Browns @ Raiders (-3.5) | Raiders | Fade to rookie QB Sanders, Browns weak on road; number moved quickly | | Jags @ Cardinals (+3) | Cardinals | Fading Jags’ non-predictive record, Pythagorean wins argument | | Falcons @ Saints (-1.5) | Saints | Brass Balls Bet – fading Kirk Cousins, no Drake London | | Eagles @ Cowboys (+3.5) | Cowboys | Syndicate bet, Eagles dysfunction, market and pros aligned | | Bucs (+7) @ Rams | Wait for +7, split | Chad likes Bucs, Simon wary due to depleted offense | | Panthers (+7) @ 49ers | Panthers | Model makes it Panthers, line is suspiciously high |

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon approach this critical NFL week with a blend of data, experience, and betting psychology. Where sharp money piles up, the hosts rarely hesitate to follow, but warn listeners about "too good to be true" lines and the dangers of overreacting to week-to-week variance. Their honest disagreements and revisiting of prior mistakes add a layer of humility and self-reflection required for success in high-stakes sports wagering.

For listeners:

• Watch key injury updates (notably at quarterback)
• Don’t force bets just because squares AND sharps seem to align
• Use favorite sides in parlays if nervous about points
• "Feedback is a gift" — share your thoughts after this wild slate

For a breakdown of Sunday’s picks & last-minute injury analysis, tune in to Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning and the recap at 7:30pm ET!