← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 12: Eagles-Cowboys, Bucs-Rams, Vikings-Packers, Colts-Chiefs, Giants-Lions and more
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Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Very unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance company and affiliates excludes Massachusetts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock that we are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the sports squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
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Chad. How we doing brother?
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My brother. As you know, on Tuesday I was recording the show from my hotel in the city of Brotherly Love. Today I'm recording from a different hotel on the outskirts, the very, very far outskirts of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. On Tuesday I had a beautiful view of City hall, that magnificent building right in the center of Philadelphia in Center City. Today I have a view of the Waffle House across a five lane highway. That is the journey that I am on during this book. This is our Thursday week 12 episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find our five favorite picks. We're inching our way closer. Reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Listen, before we get going, we love Mike Tomlin on this show. We just think he's amazing and has done so much and provided so much entertainment over the years. He did it again this week when he was asked about how he would talk to Jalen Ramsey and his response of going after Ja' Marr Chase. After Ja' Marr Chase spit in Jalen Ramsey's face. Mike Tomlin had a classic Mike Tomlin answer. Let's roll it. Matt Mitchell, I have no message.
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If someone spits in your face, do what comes natural.
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Hey everybody, producer Matt Mitchell here. I'm sorry to jump in. I just wanted to call out. This episode might sound a little bit off from an audio standpoint. Chad is traveling apparently in some flop house outside of Pittsburgh and there were guys blowing the leaves in Simon Hunter's yard for over 75 minutes. So shout out for those guys. Definitely getting paid by the hour in the interest of cleaning up that episode.
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So it didn't sound like you were.
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Enjoying it from inside a 747 engine. It'll sound a little bit strange, but at least you can hear everything just fine and everything looks okay. So again, I want to apologize. We'll get Chad back into his house.
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And had this ready to go on Sunday.
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So thank you for joining us and for bearing with us. All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we give out our picks. Every week, Simon's fellow pro gamblers call to yell at him about those picks. He's going to summarize those opinions for us right now. It's time for sharp calls.
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I have to answer this phone. All right.
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Ring, ring, telephone ring.
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Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, for a game I totally disagree on. I'm on the Bills, they love Houston tonight, so I know we're not really gonna talk much about that one. Heaven's flipped me, but I just. I'm just not gonna put as much money into Buffalo. I just know a lot of really smart groups that have hit Houston at plus six. They just really like this number in the spot for them. I just. I can't get there. I can't trust Davis, Mills and my money again. So I don't know where you're at with that one, but I just think I'd be interested.
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I'm definitely gonna be on Houston at plus six. I just. I love this defense so much. I can't quit this defense. And I feel like I'm looking at a Bills team that just had a miracle game. And we're going to talk about the Bucks in a little bit. A miracle game against the Bucks. So they went from one down to winning by 12. And Josh Allen, you know, played Superman on a short week. I like the Texans in this spot. I think the numbers gotten too big. All right, so that's Houston and Buffalo. You're on Buffalo. I'm on Houston. The wise guys are on with. Are with me. What else?
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We got another game. They're against me, the Giants. Shockingly, a lot of love for the Giants, but I think they're just missing a unique spot here. And they really are playing rushing roulette going James two weeks in a row. So I just. That's a game we can talk about some more, but we're going to get into that. I'm really dug in on Detroit.
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Good. I am, too.
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Games that, you know, I think it's split both sides. I know tons of pros on the Chiefs. I'm on the Colts. I know tons of pros that really, really like Minnesota. I'm on Green Bay. Another game, pretty split on Atlanta, New Orleans. Pros are really split on that one this week. And you know, we've talked a little bit about it. The primetime games, LA Bucks very split between the pros and so is Carolina in Tampa. What I feel like a lot of people agree on is the love for Dallas. That's a game I'm sure we're going to dive more into. All the pros I feel like are all over Dallas. I think the public shotgun is joining them as well. Cincy, again, we talked a little bit about. None of us knew Joe Burrow was going to play, so that number's moved. But the pros loved that for what I talked about. That was a huge spot to back Cincy as long as we knew that we either Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco. So that numbers really moved off professional money. And you know, last but not least, Pittsburgh. We knew. We knew the pros were going to bet it though. We talked a little bit about it. You knew the three was going to last. So, um, not too shocking. Tons of pros love for that one. So there are some, a lot of split games, but there are just some sides where I feel like all the professionals have lined up and take a lot of these dogs.
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All right, look, a lot of these games are games that we had talked about on Tuesday. We kind of had a feeling that they would play out and be in sharp calls and be games that we want to review today. One of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked a lot, Seattle, which is now a 13.5-point favorite at Tennessee. We talked about it on Tuesday. We bet it on Tuesday. We bettered at 12 and a half on Tuesday. It's obviously moved up to me. We can say that the perceived value is lost in this game. What is value when it's a 12 and a half point favorite and you like the favorite and that favorite is on the road. That's the reality is we're betting a huge favorite on the road against a team that has has backdoored the past two weeks. And I think my philosophy on this and why I like the Seahawks, and we both liked it from the second we saw the numbers on Sunday night. Our Sunday night post game show is the Chargers have fatal flaws. They got backdoored. The Texans have fatal flaws, especially offensively. They couldn't close out no matter how many opportunities they had. They couldn't close out that win. They couldn't. And the COVID on Sunday against the Titans. The Seahawks don't have those fatal flaws. And we're Going to talk more about the Seahawks and the Rams and the Rams and the Bucks and sort of how to play these games later in the show. The Seahawks had their disastrous game and still almost won. They're just a dominant team. I can't see this defense giving up more than seven points. So I'm still going to like the number at 12 and a half.
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Yeah, really good team, really well coached. And you know, there are some pros on the Titans. I just don't think it's like the other games where they're putting big, big money down on certain positions. Titans, they're betting because they feel like they have to. Right. Like you said, they've been good to them. They've been backdooring, especially since the coaching change. They've really covered a lot of spreads which, you know, we should have taken advantage. He was that terrible of coach. I didn't realize he was that bad that he affected the number that much. But yeah, Hard Rock here in Jersey is back to 13. So hard rock, they've taken obviously some professional money here, headed back down to 13. But like you said, I'm, I'm in on Seahawks at 13. I'm in on them at 12 and a half. I just like the number, like the spot. And even at minus 13, if I had to take it under 14, I still would. But we talk all the time. We just don't take big spreads like this because you need a lot of things that go your way, right. You need to play really well and not to have bad bounces. That just happens in football. So not shocking that this is probably the number one or number two biggest bet of the week by the public, right. By spread Moneyline teasers. Everyone's just lined up with Shell because everyone agrees with us. It's just like this is a really well coached team, does really well in the row and they cover a lot. So if you're scared off on this, I mean, you're scared of the number, just put it in our money line around Robin with the favorites. Get it down to six and a half or five and a half if you need to. The Seahawks. But I'm not too scared off this number. I bet at this big number.
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New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. You just mentioned this in sharp calls. This line has moved from 10 and a half to 10. This was Simon says on Tuesday when it was at ten and a half. It's now gone the other direction. The wise guys are liking the Giants. I don't get it, to be honest. This feels like the Exact smash spot that you want to get in on the Lions. The Lions at home this year have been destroying bad competition and you laid it out on Tuesday. All the reasons why you want to back Dan Campbell and Jared Goff off of a loss, off of a bad loss, off of a bad loss on the road when they are getting back home. I loved betting Jameis on Sunday when we got back on the roller coaster. I don't like betting Jameis his second game when he's going into a much more challenging environment. So I'm with you. Even though the wise guys in sharp calls they said they're betting on the Giants. You and I are aligned, my friend. We are on the Detroit Lions.
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Yeah. And everyone, sorry if there's a little murmur in the background. I am getting my leaves done. I know there might be a little.
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Bit of noise but you're so bougie.
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It is late fall here in the Northeast. Yeah, I just, I get it. It's fun. Ben Jameson, the Giants, you expect them to be able to pass the ball downfield against this banged up secondary that you know, the Lions have been pretty suspect this season. But like you just said, we've seen time and time again the Lions beat up on bad teams, especially teams that there's a coaching advantage and this feels like a great match for them just offensively. So not going to go through all the trends again. If you want to hear all the trends I read out check out Tuesday's show. But it's not only is a great matchup on paper and through the numbers, but there's tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with golf and Campbell and they usually win and cover. The one I will bring up again is when they're above a 4 favorite and after a loss at home, 8 no against the spread in this exact spot. So play the number here, we'll take the lines and like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't give out double digit favorites as my favorite bet of the week, but I thought it was going to keep going up like you just said, Chad, it's down to 10 out of hard Rock. So I'm going to take that value and bet this number again.
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Yeah, I'm a little surprised to be honest that people would be investing in the Giants in their second game with a interim replacement head coach and truly a defense that they cannot stop the run and they just had, you know, Abdul Carter have to sit out of series because he missed a practice because he just didn't attend. It's not like he missed the practice because he was injured, missed the practice because he overslept. So this is not a team that is defensively in its best place right now. And they're going against a Lions team. You know, they are going to try to run the ball as much as they possibly can. That is their advantage. And. And the Lions are the kind of team that when they run the ball, they find ways to score in bunches. They have enough talent that they can get down the field quickly, as quickly as anyone else can with the passing game. So I'm with you. I like the Lions here. I'm not afraid of it. Pittsburgh at Chicago. This one has moved in the Steelers direction, which we expected. We talked about it on Tuesday. It was at three. It's now at two and a half. Aaron Rodgers, we don't know if he's going to play. It's not a surgery thing. It's just about can he be safe with his particular injury on Sunday against the Bears, we will have to see about that. But it hasn't really mattered. The Bears are not the team that the wise guys want to back this week.
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I guess we're all in the same boat. It's about the number. If I'm going to make a bet on this game, I want it to be on the three. Not gonna let two and a half scare me off if that's what it is come Sunday and Rogers is cleared, great. If it moves a ton because Rogers is out and it goes up to three and a half, four. All right, great. I just. I can't lose here. So to me, just be patient. Let the number move if it needs to. But you've seen it this week. A ton of games are moving. So yeah, it's weird. It is and it isn't. It. It seems like the books kind of put up numbers and they're letting the pros dictate it rather than staying just, you know, holding a line on a certain number. So it, I would say the most shocking part is just so many games the dogs have moved down. That's been. Because we've talked about this year has been really good for the favorites. So yeah, this is another game where Rogers game out news. He might play, he might toughen it out and the number did dip. So a couple threes still out there, but all the main books I'm seeing is two and a half. So. Yeah, I just look at the matchup wise. I. I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in a lot of ways. But it's. We go back to it. It's how long can they keep getting away with this? They're just not that good of a team that has a ton of wins. But if this drops some more and it is Rogers back, I'm going to end up on the Bears jet. But at two and a half, I'll still be on Pittsburgh. Once it's dips below 2, it's like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty evenly matched team and Bears do have somewhat of a home field advantage. So I just. If it moves too much off the Rodgers news, I'll take a position on the Bears if I need to.
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Well, look, you said it the other day that the Bears have had a horseshoe up their ass all season and my buddy Andy, who I've talked about on the show just texted me that line cause he loved it so much because it kind of captures everything that every Bears fan is thinking about this team right now. There's sort of this foreboding sense of dread about the Bears and how good they are.
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I hate that they're thinking that way. I would go, it's got to be the opposite way. It's like, man, this is, this is the dream. You're winning, you're stealing and winning games you shouldn't because you have a good coach. I mean that's which is great.
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But we also have to ask ourselves, we keep winning games against bad teams in the final seconds. So are we a good team that is learning how to win? Are we a mediocre team that is just getting the right bounces at the right times against other bad to mediocre teams? Those are the questions that as Bears fans, obviously we're enjoying it. We love it. But we can't help but be ready to be snake bitten by a team that still has seven games left and could just as easily by the way be 3 and 7 or 4 and 6 right now as they are 7 3. So this next seven games, there's still a wide variance in how good this team can actually perform.
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New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a half point dog. Crazy, crazy swings in this game on six and a half at Hard Rock bat seven other places this game, it was seven and a half on Tuesday. We thought it was going to be Joe Flacco. We knew there would be no ja' Marr Chase at some point. I know in my notes I saw this game go to eight and a half and now it's down to six and a half. We're talking about Joe Burrow. We're still getting 70% of the bets coming in on New England, but obviously news about who's going to be playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of the market in this game. Yeah.
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And it's kind of crazy that I was not expecting Joe, bro, I don't know about you. I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving. Yeah. Or after Thanksgiving. Like Thanksgiving was going to be pushing it because it's a Thursday game obviously against that Ravens. But incredible. Just we talk all the time just how far health, medicine, all of it has come for these athletes and like the fact that he is back potentially starting this week is pretty incredible. So Joe Flacco is a point better than Joe Burrow. That was the most shocking part to me. It only moved the point. It only moved for most books from seven and a half to six and a half. So yeah, I don't know. Or I guess a couple of books did touch eight and a half. But yeah, I was just shocked. It only moved that much. Still like Cincy. If it is Joe Burrow, you know, a little worrisome because he is coming in cold I guess you could say. Right. He hasn't had the reps. He's coming in in a weird spot and you know, it's not ideal but I still think you're getting a great number. I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team, like I gave out that stat, it's just never a good stat or get spot. I should say to be in an eight game win streak on the road as a big favorite and the number has moved. So maybe I'm over reading that there is value on the Patriots now, but I still think this is a Bengals number. Like to me Joe Burrow if he was healthy mid season playing, even if they the record is what it is, this line would not be above three and a half four. So are we getting an extra two and a half points because it's Joe Bro coming a little cold and the books don't really know how to price it and there's no chase like you know, it's just I see why the public is still going to be on this Patriots team. So I went from liking the Spangles team to like kind of loving this spot now where it's like this is the exact situation you want to be in. It's just it depended on the number. If people don't feel comfortable now that it's moved off to seven, I get it but every book is six and a half. You're just that's what it is. So once again like I said on Tuesday, I wasn't rush making people rush to bet it because I didn't know the quarterback was going to be. I had no idea it was going to be Joe Burrow. So I hope people grabbed it. I said I bet it on Tuesday at the 7. At this point I'm going to bet it again just in case it keeps dropping with. In fact if his Joe Bro gets cleared this does move to four four and a half. So I like this number but again it's hard for me to tell people to bet it because if he's out and is Joe Flacco right up to seven and a half eight this would go. So it's a unique spot betting this number right.
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So we should be clear. Joe Burrow practice on Wednesday full participant. We are recording this on Thursday midday. The Bengals have not had a practice yet or at least not have indicated if Joe Burrow was going to be a full participant participant on Thursday. Zach Taylor has not said Joe Burrow was starting on Sunday, but the hope is that he can play on Sunday. They wanted to see how he did the rest of this week in practice. So the line is based on speculation of the move and anticipation of the movement, not on actual news that is broken about Joe Burrow starting. That's why the line has moved thus far.
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Again, everything I've read is he is it's Joe Bro's team. He is pushing beyond. Like even if he's 90%. He's basically like made it known he's going to play. So that's why I do think the line reflects that.
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New England at or I'm sorry, India. Kansas City. Indy is now a three point underdog. You want to make this? Simon says. When the game was at three it did get up to three and a half and I've seen three and a halfs out there and it went back to three and a half in Kansas City's direction even though the majority of the bats are coming in on Indianapolis. So Indianapolis is a bit of a public play here. You were on Indy. It's so interesting. Like the talk of the NFL geeker Roddy, this season has been that the Chiefs at, what is it, 5 and 5 now actually have better underlying metrics this year than they did last year when they went into the last game of the season with scrubs at 15 and 1. But last year they were winning those one score games and this year they're losing those one scores games. So do we buy into an improving, better performing Chiefs team that is just getting unlucky? Are we buying into the Colts team that has continued to be very good in these close games and could be having the same kind of season that the Chiefs had last year?
- [27:30]
A
Yeah, I'm just going to keep saying, I said I just feel like the Colts are the safer, more logical bet here on this number because of what you just talked about last year. I think they might have been 10 and one the Chiefs in one score games. It was insane and we kept saying there will be regression but because Mahomes it's hard to know how much regression there's going to be. No one saw 05 coming this season. That is again just like the 10 and 1 was way too far one way, the 05 is too far the other way. So he should start winning and stealing these one score games. Like we just said, Hard Rock's a sharp book. They're at three. Every other book I'm looking at right now is three and a half. So we don't care if Mahomes wins a one score game. We're going to be covering that number most of the time with a three and a half with a Colts that it's fair to say they're just the better team. They're playing like a better team right now. And I mean with a game we just moved out the Bears, you're doing exactly what this Chiefs team can't do. They're closing out games and stealing them at the end. Whatever it is the Chiefs just have not been able to do it this year and either in situationally just Mahomes like you feel what I feel. Anytime you see him get the ball back with time on that clock, you expect them to drive the field and score. And this year it's just not happened that way. He just either goes threes an hour, they punt or you know, they don't get the whistles. A lot of, a lot of their games it feels like they've been carried by the whistle and the ref, right. Like they've had drives, they're deader than dead. The refs give them a little bit of life and then Mahomes kicks it up at a gear and they drive the field to get touchdown. So you know, that's another part of it. I just think they've been inconsistent. So you know, I read some trends. There's some that really favorite this Colts team here, especially at that three and a half number. You know, it's a unique spot, right? It's a Chiefs team. I think Evan had an amazing stat about this Chiefs team. Basically a team that's below or at.500 favored against a team like the Colts who's, you know, above a 70% win percentage. This is a unique spot for the Chiefs. Historically this team in this spot is 12, 0 against the spread. So I know there are guys who like the Chiefs here. They're saying the books are telling you something. They're taking a stand with the books. The fact that they are such a big favorite and you know Joe Public's going to look at this like I am looking at where it's like, I just don't get this. The Colts are a much better team. They play better this season. Just throw out the records, just on the field stuff. You think the Colts are a better team. So I knew the public dog would be the Colts. It's nice to see it has moved because that shows that professional money is coming on this Colts team. Like I told you I know plenty of professionals are standing with the books and they're taking the Chiefs here. So like I've said, I just think it's. They're betting the line from the Chiefs of yesteryear, not the Chiefs this year, which is a team that just has not been great in one score games. I still can't believe they lost that Broncos game. Like I, I really can't. Like it lined up so many ways. We thought they were going to win and steal it and they just could never get over that hump. So yeah, the I I get it. Like the Chiefs, you want to bet their money line because you just can't see them losing. That's safer to me than taking them at the three or the minus three and a half. So I just think we're playing the number strictly three and a half. That's where I got to be with this Colts team.
- [30:32]
B
Chiefs on the money line is going to be part of our money line parlay for sure. Cleveland at the Las Vegas Raiders. Look, I nearly made this Chad's choice on Sunday or on Tuesday when it was Raiders at minus three. It's now moved to three and a half. Shador Sanders is officially the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. You can give Shador Sanders the benefit of the doubt if you want to be incredibly generous. Right. You can say okay. You can say okay. He's getting a full week of practice. He's with the starters, all those opportunities. But here's, I think, the problem with Shador Sanders, and that isn't going to change because it was the same thing in college. We saw the same thing in training camp. Training camp. We saw the same thing last week. The dude holds the ball forever in the pocket and he's not a big scrambler. And they've got a lot of injuries on the offensive line. And on the other side is Max Crosby. So I think there are just incredible advantages for this Raiders team. Forget about the fact you're getting the Browns on the road versus at home. I've gone through all the numbers. They give up 10 more points per game on the road than they do at home. They give up, I think, 20%, 30% more rushing yards on the road than they do at home. So it's not a great spot for a Browns defense that just had a rock fight of a game and didn't come out on top against the Ravens. Miles Garrett, four sacks last week. But like, I know we're afraid to bet on Geno, but we're betting. Nothing in betting is perfect. Right. You got to play all of it. And I think that when you land, when you stack up all the positives and all the negatives, it's still a better game spot for the Raiders than it is for the Browns.
- [32:24]
A
Yeah. And I'm just scared off by the number. It's just, I'm betting it, but it feels unnatural because it does feel way too easy. And as bad as you know is, I just, I still can't leave this open at two and a half. And like you said, we bet it at two and a half better than three But I said on Tuesday show, you have to talk about it -3 and a half because that's. That's where it's going to be at for everybody. Sure enough, that's. I mean, literally, by the time we post the show, that's where it was at. So, I don't know. I. Vegas, like you said, it's the right side. We'll be on it. But I just see a million different ways that we get burned by Gino. But like you said, how does Sanders move the ball, push it downfield? So, like, my worry here would just be what we've seen with Cleveland, right? They have a really good run game that can mitigate bad quarterback play. But if we can somehow get a lead and force Shador to have to pass, I think that's where they could steal this game. So I'm backing with you just of all my bets this week. I'm. I'm more so, like I've said, I'm heavy on the money line for this Raiders team. I just, I'm very, very wary of this number at minus three and a half. It's just. I'm glad to see it's gone up to four, which shows that professional money and the public are still betting three and a half. But, yeah, if we get to Sunday and it's just still stuck here at minus three and a half, I don't know if I can let us put it in one of our five.
- [33:43]
B
Well, I'm super excited about this game. I love it, love, love the Raiders here. The other game that I love, Jacksonville at Arizona. This was Chad's choice. I was really. And I gave it out. Chad's choice is two and a half. But I said on the show, be patient. It's going to get to three. It just hadn't gotten there yet. It is now at 3, thank God. So hopefully people have been paying attention. They saw the line move. It got to three middle of the day yesterday. Really glad that it did. Marvin Harrison Jr. Is missing the game with Jacoby Brissette, who just threw for 47 completions and Mike Wilson had 185 yards. I don't think Jacoby Brissette cares that much if Marvin Harrison is not playing Marvin Harrison Jr. In the same way that Kyler Murray would need to have someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. Playing. But the truth is, I'm just fading the Jags here and I'm betting that's much more what I'm doing than betting on the cards. I know you love it when I geek out on the numbers. So I'm sure you're familiar with Pythagorean wins, which essentially, like the number of wins a team is supposed to have based on all of their underlying advanced metrics. That shows the true performance. It kind of takes a lot of the luck out of the game and just shows you, all right, if everything was equal, this is how this team would be. This is what this team's record would be. And of course, when I look at this, the Jags should have about one fewer win and the Cardinals should have one. So instead of being a team that is like, what is. What are the cards? 3 and 7. They should probably be closer to 4 and 6 or 5 and 5. And the Jags, instead of being 6 and 4, should probably be closer to 5 and 5. That's not how this game is lined. This game is lined as if the Jags are a much, much better team. I don't see it that way. Give me the cards plus three.
- [35:48]
A
Yeah, and I feel like it did move a little bit because of the injuries that this Cardinals team has had this week, where, like you just said, their number one receiver is not going to miss this game. And, you know, it's once again a rotation at their running back. They might be getting Trey Benson back, which doesn't sound like a big deal, but I like him. I think he's an upgrade to the running back position for them. So, you know, for this Cardinals team, our biggest break in the day is can their defense get some stops? Yeah, because that's what I talked about.
- [36:16]
B
Their defense has been getting worse every single week.
- [36:19]
A
Every week, Chad. It's just been brutal. So that's like my only real fear here. But offensively, I love this matchup for Arizona. I just think the Jags defense, as great as they looked against that Chargers team, I think that was all, you know, just basically based on Herbert not adjusting to his offensive line, but injuries, he just holds on. In my opinion, Herbert holds on the ball too long. So I think Brissette in this match will be able to take advantage of this bad secondary, of this Jackson, because people have to remember, you know, even If Brian Thompson Jr. Is going to come back in this game, he's not 100% right. He's been banged up and he's been fighting through injuries all season. He's just not been that good. Trevor Lawrence relationship this year has just not been good. And I joke, last year he had a great relationship with Mac Jones. I mean, he really shined with it. So it's not great. With them. And we already know Travis Hunter is out for this one. So everything it felt like the Jags took advantage of in that Chargers game doesn't feel like they'll be able to in this game. And we've seen time and time again this Jags team on the road as favorites. They've struggled this season. So, you know, like you said, Chad, we're playing the number here. This probably should be closer to a pick. We're taking the Cardinals at a good number at plus three. But in this match, if it really is about fading Trevor Lawrence against this Cardinals defense, it feels like it's a better matchup for them than they've had the last two weeks against really good high powered offenses.
- [37:39]
B
You and I 100% aligned on the Arizona Cardinals. It always works out. When we love a game this much, inevitably we get burned. So I can't wait to see how he gets screwed on Sunday. And I know it's gonna be the game that we're waiting for it to end before we go on the air. And I'm gonna take that long, dark, cold walk up to my third floor and I'm just gonna have to answer for this. And I'm already miserable about it. But I don't care. I don't care. I'm ready. I love the Arizona Cardinals this week. All right, this one's a little tricky. Atlanta at New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints are one and a half points point favorites right now. Simon took us a minute, but our brass balls gotta do a quiet cause I'm in a hotel. Brass balls Bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet it's gonna be the New Orleans Saints minus one and a half.
- [38:31]
A
You know what it takes.
- [38:32]
B
It takes brass balls. Here's how I finally came to it. No Drake London. He's kind of their entire offense. No Michael Pennocks, who heartbreaking that he's got a torn ACL and needs to have that repaired. Kirk Cousins, like this game is ugly. It's not because we all of a sudden are going back to our. Oh, the Saints are competitive. It's not because we think Tyler Schuck is all of a sudden a good quarterback. It's not of any of those things. To me it's only a bet against Kirk Cousins. A bet against the fact they don't have Drake London. And I think it's going to be really hard for them to move the ball. Yeah.
- [39:15]
A
And hopefully people can get this before it moves to two. A hard rocking jersey here just moved to two. While we're doing this live honestly and a lot of books are following them. So two real public books out there are still at the one and a half which I hope people can get. But talk a little bit about it like this is a split game. I know some pros who every time it touches too they're going to take Atlanta. And on the flip side with the Saints, every time it's at this number minus one and a half every probably knows he's going to take the Saints. So it's been really fun where it's a lot of back and forth and it's really about what you just said. Atlanta, they're not that bad of a team. Like if you go through a lot of their games, I mean they, they could have beat the Patriots, they could have beat the Colts. Right. Like those are would have been huge, massive wins that could have really flipped their season. But they've struggled in those close one score games and I do put that on the coaching. So I don't think Kirk is an upgrade to Penix. And you said the number one weapon on that team is going to be out as well Drake London. So I can't believe we talked a little bit on Tuesday about I gave out all those Kirk stats how horrible he's been. Once you really dive into it though and the injuries this team has had Atlanta, how do you not love the Saints here? So I'm glad to see it's moving it to at least it shows me that real money is coming in heavily finally on the Saints team which to me makes sense. So I hope people can get the one and a half here when they hear it because we talk all the time about key number two is this is also a game where I might throw a little bit on the adjusted line like again Kirk Cousins might be done, done, done and this could be a really good match for them where they just know all they have to do is take away the run and just put it all on the on Kirk's arm and see if he can beat you that way. Which again we've talked the Saints are a veteran defense. They have the guys that probably can do that in the middle take away the run. So yeah it's a game that we tried to find a game we both agreed on. I feel like this is the one we really agreed on together that we both love.
- [41:01]
B
Yep, totally. Philadelphia Dallas. Dallas is now a three point dog. It was four and a half early in the week. You were hammering it at four and a half. By Tuesday it was down to three. There are places where it moved back up to three and a half and I wondered how you felt about that because when we talked about it on Tuesday, you were anxious that it was going to keep moving and then all of a sudden you'd have to be betting on the Eagles at under three. It's gone back up. I think there's a lot of sentiment out there that whatever is plaguing the Eagles offense is going to be a challenge for them. And even if they think the Eagles are going to win and we'll probably end up having the Eagles in our moneyline parlay, it's going to be hard for them to cover a big number against this Dallas offense.
- [41:48]
A
I think we might have to skip it in the Milan parlay. Chad.
- [41:51]
B
It's really.
- [41:52]
A
Yeah. The Cowboys approach the end zone like a team attending a buffet supper, sampling a wide range of delights before finishing the meal. I told you for the show, a group I really respect, it's really respected in the industry, has put north of seven figures in this Cowboys team at, at the three and a half and at the four. At the four and a half. So like you just said, there's tons of three and a halfs out there if you want to join a really smart group. And you know, I thought I was going to be on Dallas. It was like, okay, I'll bet Dallas this week. It's a good number. Divisional matchup, home dog. We talked, you know, game one of the year. The biggest strength of the Dallas team was going to be the number two receiver in Pickens against a bad corner on the Eagles. Little do we know Pickens was going to be like, what, the number one receiver this year? Number two stat wise behind the guy up in Seattle. So, you know, I, I can't get over this matchup. As an Eagles fan, I just don't get what they're senior. I can't believe as an Eagles fan they're saying we're going to lose this game to the Cowboys. I can't believe it. I really can't. So I have zero dollars to invest in this Eagles money line. I've taken a position on the Cowboys money line here and just. I guess I'll trust the number. And these really smart professionals here that are telling me this is an incredible spot for the Scaboys team. And you know, again, Kevin Petulu, the OC of this Eagles team, I still report that he's getting looks at being a head coach candidate next year and it makes me want to rip my head out. It's like, what am I Missing here, I just. Everything feels so dysfunctional. These Eagles offense. This is where I feel like this Cowboys team can maybe take an advantage is the fact that their offense is clicking. On the flip side, this Eagles offense just seems so congested. And, you know, we. We've seen the upgrades the Cowboys made to their defense between trading and getting guys back healthy. You know, obviously this is not the Raiders offense, but it feels like they can stop a dysfunctional Eagles team right now, which I think the Eagles need. They need it. They. It feels like they need to lose a game to correct some of their woes right now because as ugly it's been, they keep winning and as much hate as I want to give this guy Kevin, his offense doesn't turn the bull over and they keep winning. So, yeah, it's, It's. It's a weird spot where I, I just. It feels like the public and the professionals are aligned on this Cowboys team because of all the outside noise. And it's like, is this not move too much? So like I said, if it gets a two and a half on the Eagles, I'm not going to take it now because I respect this group so much. But I feel like this is such an overreaction. This number has moved so much. So once again, get the three and a half. At the three. I don't want to tell people to take the Cowboys here, but at three and a half, I do think that's a really strong number where really sworn money's back in that number.
- [44:33]
B
I'm surprised to hear you say that. That is new news since the Tuesday show. So obviously you've gotten some intel on this syndicate that's betting big money on the Cowboys. I think if the Eagles off the.
- [44:44]
A
Pain, it truly pains me. I can't believe they're going to lose this game to the Cowboys, but that's what guys are telling me. They're like, dude, this is a trap. A bad spot for this Eagles team. They're walking right into it.
- [44:54]
B
Well, look, if the Eagles offensive coordinator is all of a sudden, there's news about him getting looks as head coach.
- [44:59]
A
I think they're trolling me. I swear they're trolling me.
- [45:02]
B
That's just his agent who's really good planting, planting, planting with some friendlies.
- [45:07]
A
That's true right there. That's true.
- [45:08]
B
That's all. That's all that is. There's no one who's really serious about that. Tampa Bay at the Los Angeles Rams. This one is moving towards seven. It's at six and a half I just can't not like the Bucks here. And I know we're on opposite sides because I think Baker started scrambling. I think Sean Tucker has taken on some of the responsibilities that came with Bucky Irving. So it's taken the pressure and the load off of Rashad White. If you look at Seattle, I said this earlier in the show, they still almost won that game against the Rams. Even after four Sam Darnold interceptions. What does that tell you about either the Rams ability to be effective offensively? What does it tell you about the play calling? What does it tell you about their defense? And maybe there are some holes that you can take advantage of. Like the Bucks also nearly covered against the Bills. They were five minutes away from winning that game until Josh Allen went into superhuman mode. So I know we've been burned with the Bucks. I'm still haven't bet it. I'm waiting for it to get to seven. I think it's going to get there and when it does, I'm going to have to bet the Bucks.
- [46:28]
A
I know, I get where you're coming from. I just, I don't know. I don't think this Bucks team is good. Like I went back and rewatched that game and you're, you're, you're honestly making a bet strictly on Baker having magic and keeping this game close. But these injuries have caught up to them offensively. Like him not having all of his guys. It's a real issue. And as great as a Mecca Buko has been, you've seen teams be able to adjust to him because it's again a first year player. There's only so many good things he's gonna be able to do. He's very raw, right? So say he's incredible running these slants. They've literally just been dropping a linebacker every time under coverage into his routes. So now he's had to really go downfield more, which again, Baker doesn't mind pushing the ball downfield, but they're just going to have a safety over top of the whole time. Like you just know you have to double Mecca Buka. Everyone else you're going to be able to do one on ones with, right. You're getting guys off the street here for this Bucs team, which you know Baker can make magic. Like you said, there is a world where he can make this the game and cover this number because we've seen that with Baker. Like he just never gives up that Bills game. Like we said that three and out. That's why you lost that cover at the end of the game, if Baker doesn't go three and out there and does what he had been doing, drive the field, at least get you a field goal there. It's a totally different situation. You probably do cover that number, but three and out. Josh Allen was on a mission, gets the ball back, went right down the field, scored again. So looking here, Chad, I think the professionals view it as, wow, this number is going up to seven. It's just that I don't think they're going to get Bucky back. To me, that's a big deal. This Rams team as bad as they looked last week. This, this has to be an exact. Exactly get right spot for this Rams offense against a bad Bucks defense. Right. Seattle's defense kind of not put staffer in his place. But we were saying, I think he still is MVP favorite, but he did not play at MVP level there. We talked about he had 50 completions. He totally burned us. In a game, his team gets four picks. We should have covered that number a million different ways. He couldn't get his team in field goal range. I mean, like you said, they scored that 14 in the first quarter with five minutes to go. He only scored seven the rest of the game. So for Stafford, this offense, it feels like a good right spot. And yeah, we're just on opposite sides. You like the Bucks, but I don't think you'll take the Bucks here at minus six and a half. I think you'll just. Or plus six and a half. You'll just wait, grab the seven. Where on the Rams. If you're getting this now, I would take the six and a half now because I only think this goes up. I just don't see it coming down just because I think Bucky will be out, we'll have Godwin out and we'll see who they get back to the offensive line for this Bucks team. But just so many injuries to this team. Baker going to handle so much, you know?
- [49:09]
B
Yep. Carolina plus seven at San Francisco. Why aren't we betting Carolina here? You know, Bryce Young against this defense. I know that everybody wants to say that the Niners are back with Brock Purdy. Seven just feels like a huge, huge, huge, huge number for us. For a Panthers team that continues to find ways to not just cover and win. They're doing the same things they did last year. They're building momentum in the second half. They're taking big chances. I know you hated the chances they took on Sunday and Dave Canales was your shame, shame, shame. But it just feels like this Panthers team is too competitive and this number is too big. And everyone is forgetting that this Niners defense is just not very good. They're wide open and vulnerable to what Bryce Young likes to do and how Dave Canales likes to call plays.
- [50:06]
A
I know, but like I keep saying, there has to be something we are missing here because this line does not make sense at all.
- [50:12]
B
No sense.
- [50:13]
A
And the books are telling us that Bryce Young is going to lay an Edgar. That's what they're saying to us. But we have all this data that shows this Niners team just. They have let down games after big wins, and they've done so the last year and a half with whether it's been Brock Purdier, Mac Jones, it doesn't matter who the quarterback has been, that that's been consistent. They are one of 14 against the spread after when, you know, I just don't get this line at all. Like you've said, this Carolina team, they have the guys that keep up with this offense. You know, we know their defense is going to struggle and the 49ers are going to get this, but we expect the Panthers to keep up. And this is seven and a half at two different books here in Jersey.
- [50:52]
B
Chad, it's ridiculous.
- [50:53]
A
It's minus 125 and minus 120 at both of them. But, I mean, I'm very tempted to put a large wager on this Panthers team. I can't believe it. I'm just trying to be cautious here because there's just something I'm missing. My model's totally off, and I'm totally off. I just do not get this number at all. So, yeah, this. Every. Every book I've talked to, I said the majority of the money they've taken so far has been Panthers, which to me makes sense. Like, the public is with us. They've seen Bryce, Bryce Young, what he's done. And you know, Atlanta, like we just said, they're potentially a really bad team and we've overvalued them. And, you know, any defense that just gave up 450 yards or Bryce Young, you can say is a bad defense. But I don't know, like we said, this 49ers team, with their injuries, they're not that much better. Like, they really aren't. So I don't get it, Chad. I just do not get this line at all. And I'm with you. I. I'm all over this Panthers one, but I'm trying to be cautious because it feels way too easy. And I'm missing something like again, it feels a couple, a couple lines this week feel really interesting where they've, they've moved and this is one of those games where this was six and a half, it's gone to seven and now it's trending towards seven and a half. So be careful. We'll talk more about it Sunday once I get more info because it is the Monday night game. But yeah, as we sit here right now, I really, really like this Panthers number.
- [52:11]
B
I do, too. The games that we know we'll be talking about on Sunday either because of lines, because games we like now because of injury news. We're going to talk about the Lions, we're going to talk about the Steelers because we're waiting to find out about Aaron Rodgers. We're going to talk about Seattle. We'll probably talk about Cincy. Yeah, we gotta, because of Joe Burrow. We're going to talk about the Raiders, we're going to talk about the Cardinals, the Saints. Geez. Dallas, Carolina. Like it's going to be hard to narrow these things down on Sunday.
- [52:48]
A
Yeah, no, it's a fun week for sure.
- [52:51]
B
All right, let's take a quick word from Hard Rock and we'll come back with some big bets and square versus sharp and all that good stuff. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets is if you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. And if you're not sure what to place your first bet on, check out the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. It's loaded with trends, streaks and stats to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie and neither does the data in there. Here's one that stood out to me again. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has now scored a touchdown in 14 straight games versus NFC opponents. Check out the Stats Hub. Now get the edge and bet with confidence. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook anytime you're in Florida. And it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois and Colorado. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1833. Play wise in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. All right, Simon, biggest bets.
- [55:02]
A
Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, it's all dependent on the number. Like, again, I'm pretty heavy on Detroit. Obviously, people know that. Minus ten and a half. Minus ten. I've really taken a big position on that one. Cincy. I'm getting there, people. So I've taken big positions on seven, six and a half. Colts plus three and a half. And, you know, probably not that shocking if people. Cowboys plus three and a half. I've taken pretty big position, so I'm being patient on the Rams and the Panthers and see where that number goes. But those could end up being pretty big bets of mine as well.
- [55:40]
B
It worries me that my biggest bets so far this week are not on your list. The Raiders and the Cardinals.
- [55:52]
A
I'm invested heavily in the Raiders money line, but, yeah, I just. I'm just. I don't know, something about that number just scares me a little bit.
- [56:00]
B
All right, well, now I'm scared that you're not aligned with what I'm doing. Let's talk about some parlays here. Let's choose three underdog parlays because I know we've got probably five parlays that we really like for the favorites. Underdogs. My dog likes your dog.
- [56:22]
A
Your dog likes my dog.
- [56:26]
B
I could see Cincy. You know, if it's Joe Burrow, like, it doesn't. Doesn't terribly scare me.
- [56:34]
A
All right, do Cincy. Dallas.
- [56:38]
B
Yeah.
- [56:39]
A
Pittsburgh plus 125. Yeah, that's not terrible, dude.
- [56:44]
B
Cardinals.
- [56:46]
A
Cardinals. All right, I'll get behind that. They're plus 140.
- [56:49]
B
Yeah. Arizona. All right, the favorites. We're definitely going to go with the Raiders. Oh, yeah, we're going to go with the Saints. What about Kansas City?
- [57:01]
A
Yeah, we can do it Kansas City. Even though I think, I think them being 5 and 6 is very real.
- [57:07]
B
Raiders, Saints, Kansas City. Want to do Seattle?
- [57:11]
A
Yeah, do some adjusted lines. Do Seattle -5 and a half.
- [57:14]
B
Okay, so Seattle -5 and a half. Let's do one more.
- [57:18]
A
And how can we not take Packers?
- [57:21]
B
Yeah, take the Packers.
- [57:22]
A
I mean, I get it. It's a divisional game. Things do happen. But my God, they've lost so many bad games here. They can't drop another one at home in this spot.
- [57:33]
B
All right, Sharp versus Square. Give me your thoughts here. You can go first. Since you were at Carolina last week and I did not.
- [57:42]
A
I mean, I would do Dallas plus three and a half, but hard rocks, unfortunately, at three. I'll do Colts plus three and a half.
- [57:53]
B
Colts plus three and a half.
- [57:54]
A
Leaking confidence?
- [57:55]
B
As I said, you are leaking a little.
- [57:58]
A
I feel much safer doing Dallas plus three and a half.
- [58:00]
B
But I'll give you a Dallas three and a half. It's kind of been there all week and you can get Dallas plus.
- [58:05]
A
Yeah, it's had a bunch of main books.
- [58:07]
B
Yeah, you get Dallas three and a half pretty much anywhere. I'm down to Cincy and Vegas.
- [58:13]
A
Dude, Vegas, you love it. You've been tempted all week.
- [58:16]
B
I do. I do love Vegas. I'll take minus three.
- [58:17]
A
I try to get you off of it. But you love it.
- [58:20]
B
I love the Raiders. I love it. All right.
- [58:22]
A
And then Survivor. Just real quick, as people always ask, you can't go wrong with these double digit dogs, people. If you still have Seahawks, you still have Lions, you still have Ravens, just use them. If not, if you're really stuck, if you still somehow still have Green Bay, use them. If you still somehow have the Rams, I wouldn't waste them on the Bucs. Your books would easily win that game. So there's a bunch of options there. I just wouldn't force in big favorites or the rams or the 49ers. The 49ers could lose that game as well.
- [58:51]
B
All right, this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. Simon and I are going to make utterly human, challenging decisions that we will regret the rest of the day. We'll be back on sharpersquare YouTube later that day, 7:30pm Eastern to review how we did watch or listen on YouTube at sharp or Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. You can also download it from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Right now, it's time to take a step forward.
- [59:33]
A
We got to put something together. Back to back. Let's go. This is an I heart podcast.