The Herd with Colin Cowherd | Sharper Square: SHARP NFL BETS Week 9

Date: October 30, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume

Episode Overview

This Halloween-themed edition of "Sharper Square" dives into Week 9 NFL betting strategy, breaking down which bets are "sharp" (wise guy/professional) and which are "square" (public/common). Chad Millman and pro bettor Simon Hunter debate their favorite sides, unpack notable trends, debate the value of home underdogs in the modern NFL, and grapple with the challenge of finding five consensus picks amidst a turbulent year for betting favorites.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Betting Market & Home Underdogs

(06:38–09:38)

• Favorites on a Historic Run:
  • Simon notes the public’s recent success, with favorites going 11–2 last week:

    "The favorites, like, you've seen all the data... the best run they've ever had to start a season. These last two weeks, it's been insane." (07:14 – Simon Hunter)

• Pros Gravitating to Home Dogs:
  • Despite the run, Simon observes pro money flocking to home underdogs based purely on value, though with less conviction:

    "Most pros I know... are just all over these home dogs and they just love the numbers they're getting." (09:24 – Simon Hunter)

• Caution on Old Trends:
  • Simon warns many longtime signals (e.g., blindly betting home dogs) are less reliable in today’s analytics- and fourth-down-heavy NFL, which favors decisive favorites.

2. Game-by-Game Analysis & Leaning Sharp vs. Square

(11:25 onward)

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

(09:38–14:24)

• Debate on Overvaluation:
  • Chad believes the Pats are overvalued, and the Falcons should be the spot with most of their weapons healthy. Simon counters with doubts about Penix outdoors and the risk of fading a “hot” team too soon.
  • “I just can't get there on this Falcons, even though you're right, it's an inflated number.” (13:44 – Simon Hunter)
• Both ultimately undecided; likely to revisit Sunday.

Chargers (-8.5) at Titans

(14:27–19:43)

• Both strongly on the chalky favorite:
  • "As a road favorite against the spread, Harbaugh since he's been with The Chargers, they're 10 and 2... I can't get over that." (17:03 – Simon Hunter)
• Old dog rules don’t apply; Chargers check every box with favorable splits, extended rest, and matchup edges.

Vikings at Lions (-8.5 to -9)

(19:43–23:49)

• Chad dismisses love for Vikings simply as number-chasing:
  • "The Lions are a dominant team... it's not about Brian Flores' pass defense, this Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year." (20:05 – Chad Millman)
• Simon trusts Dan Campbell against the spread, especially after a bye.

Panthers at Packers (-13.5)

(24:01–27:36)

• Giant number, but both wary.
• Chad: Panthers’ defense could limit Packers' scoring chances.
• Simon: “We are simply playing the number here. The Packers... 0–4 against the spread as a favorite of 7 points or more.” (25:56 – Simon Hunter)
• Both agree it's the “right play,” but not with enthusiasm.

Colts at Steelers (+3)

(32:33–36:48)

• Chad on Steelers, Simon on Colts (split).
• Recognize Steelers are a sharp side at +3.5, but Simon feels the Colts’ scheme outclasses a bad Pittsburgh D.

Broncos at Texans (-1.5)

(37:15–42:53)

• Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Houston
• Both believe Denver is overvalued and Houston’s defense is underrated.
• Chad: "The Texans defense is freaking awesome. And I feel like it's being slept on." (42:51)
• Simon: Careful about Bo Nix as a dog; likes Houston’s situational edge after a light defensive workload last week.

Jaguars (-2.5) at Raiders

(42:55–47:58)

• Chad loves Jags, Simon says “square,” but line movement now makes it more palatable.
• Simon warns: All public money on Jags, but lacks faith in Geno Smith as the Raiders’ QB.
• Chad: Raiders' secondary can't cover, and Jacksonville has coaching/schematic edge coming out of the bye.

Chiefs (-2) at Bills

(48:04–54:23)

• Both very confident on Chiefs.
• Simon: “I just, I'm not a buyer on Josh Allen right now. Something seems off with them.” (49:13)
• Chiefs D much improved, Bills WRs can't get separation, and Allen’s performance against good defenses is concerning.
• Mahomes as a short favorite at home: always a solid play.

Primetime: Seattle at Washington (+3); Arizona at Dallas (-2.5)

(57:24–62:01)

• Commanders / Seahawks:
  • Chad likes Commanders +3.5 but not at 3.
  • Simon lays out the case for Seattle (Sam Darnold in night games trend) but admits it's a trap spot for SEA.
• Arizona / Dallas:
  • Chad likes Dallas (primetime Dak is strong; 13–0 as a favorite in home night games), Simon hesitates but is swayed by stats toward Dallas at -2.5.

3. Parlays, Contest Picks, and “Brass Balls Bet of the Week”

(62:01–68:47)

Top Four Consensus Favorites:

• Chargers -8.5
• Lions -8.5
• Chiefs -2
• Texans -1.5

Likely Fifth Candidate: To be determined Sunday from:

• Jaguars -2.5, Cowboys -2.5, possibly Giants or Commanders (if price/value appealing).

Moneyline Parlay for Contest:

• Chiefs, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville

Underdog Parlay:

• Steelers, Atlanta, Buffalo, Giants, Denver (flex for matchups/late info)

Brass Balls Bet:

• Texans -1.5 (confidence in defense and rest advantage)

Chad’s Choice:

• Detroit

Simon Says:

• Kansas City

Sharp vs. Square:

• Both admit: It’s a “Square vs Square” week, heavily aligned with favorites.
  • “How did we end up loving and agreeing on four favorites?” (62:01 – Chad Millman)

Most Notable Quotes

• "I'm shocked so much professional money is coming in and moving this [Chargers] number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value."
  — Simon Hunter (19:43)

• "Honestly, that's the point of the game, my friend. We gotta find five that we both love."
  — Chad Millman (14:27)

• "Trying to time that is the hardest part of some of this... when do you get off that roller coaster because you know it's going to start to go down again. It doesn't just keep going up."
  — Chad Millman (13:56)

• "The Texans defense is freaking awesome. And I feel like it's being slept on."
  — Chad Millman (42:51)

• "It's a new NFL... I don't think the bookmakers, with some of these offenses, have caught up to it."
  — Simon Hunter (23:35)

• "Couple of squares. Not sharp vs. square. Square vs. square this week."
  — Chad Millman (68:56)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• State of Betting Market & Home Dogs: 06:38–09:38
• Atlanta vs. New England Deep Dive: 09:38–14:24
• Chargers-Titans Chalk Debate: 14:27–19:43
• Lions-Vikings Matchup: 19:43–23:49
• Panthers-Packers Big Spread Discussion: 24:01–27:36
• Colts-Steelers Schematics: 32:33–36:48
• Texans-Broncos Brass Balls + Defense: 37:15–42:53
• Jaguars-Raiders (Square Trap?): 42:55–47:58
• Chiefs-Bills, Mahomes Comparisons: 48:04–54:23
• Primetime Games / Dak Stats: 57:24–62:01
• Consensus & Parlay Building: 62:01–68:47
• Wrap Up / Contest Leanings: 68:47–69:56

Flow & Tone

Chad and Simon are collegial, analytical, and self-effacing, frequently teasing each other about their public, "square" leanings this week. They balance sharp professional process with practical “feel” during a year where the NFL’s betting landscape has been wildly unpredictable.

Simon repeatedly urges caution about old-school trends and is notably stats-focused, especially with regard to coach and QB splits. Chad often advocates for situational context and schematic matchups as key factors in overriding generic angles.

There’s a meta-theme of wrestling with change: should you still lean on old wisdom, or is 2025’s NFL a new beast?

Summary Table: Top Leanings

| Game | Pick | Confidence | Rationale/Notes | |-----------------------|---------------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Chargers at Titans | Chargers -8.5 | High | Coaching edge, rest, historical splits | | Vikings at Lions | Lions -8.5 | High | Dominant run game vs bad D, coaching, fade recency bias | | Chiefs at Bills | Chiefs -2 | High | Bills WR concerns, Mahomes as fav, D improved | | Broncos at Texans | Texans -1.5 (Brass Balls) | High-ish | Rest advantage, Houston D undervalued, fade Denver hype | | Jaguars at Raiders | Debate (Chad: Jags -2.5) | Medium | Chad enamored, Simon skeptical, "trap value" but line favorable | | Cowboys vs Cardinals | Cowboys -2.5 | Medium | Dak’s primetime record, fading close-game mirages for Arizona | | Colts at Steelers | Split | - | Chad likes Steelers, Simon likes Colts; both see ways to lose | | Panthers at Packers | Panthers +13.5 | Low | Purely “playing the number” |

Final Take

Chad and Simon, after years of chasing home dogs, find Week 9’s sharp money split and end up—reluctantly and a bit sheepishly—lining up on the side of the chalk. They caution that 2025’s NFL has broken many old betting rules, and stress the importance of adapting to current trends (e.g., new fourth-down aggressiveness, kicking rules, larger scoring swings).

They will finalize their fifth contest play Sunday morning, but four clear favorites top their list: Chargers, Lions, Chiefs, Texans.

For the Contest Player or Busy Listener

• Start with heavy favorites: Chargers, Lions, Chiefs, Texans.
• Consider Jaguars, Cowboys or a sharp home dog for the fifth slot, but monitor last-minute injury/situational news.
• “Brass Balls” play: Texans -1.5
• Biggest caution: Old “home dog” betting systems need major context.
• Week 9 is a “square-fest”—don’t feel bad if you’re on the favorites. So are the pros (this time).

Feedback, comments, or sharp-squared banter? Find Chad and Simon on Sharper Square YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and leave them five stars.