← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 9: Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills, Cardinals-Cowboys, Broncos-Texans, Colts-Steelers and more
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With Fox one, you get it all live, edgier seat plays, high octane moments and and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox 1 We live for live streaming now. This podcast is sponsored by PayPal. Okay, let's talk holiday shopping. When you want to make the most of your Money, head to PayPal's app before you check out. They give you the flexibility to pay in four no fees, no interest. And this is big. Bigger than the 12 foot snowman on your lawn right now. You can get 5% cash back when you pay later with PayPal. So whether it's the must have merch or for that signed jersey you've been eyeing, PayPal helps you make the most of your money this holiday. Save this offer in the PayPal app expires 1231.
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- [01:18]
Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
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- [02:41]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:04]
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing?
- [03:06]
Chad Millman
Listen, this, this is like our official Halloween episode. And for those who don't know, Matt Mitchell is a fiend for Halloween and all themed episodes. So I would expect it to be very spooky today. Spookier than the lines themselves. Simon, I know you like to go out and celebrate Halloween. It's what all single dudes in their 30s love to do.
- [03:43]
Simon Hunter
Definitely back in the day, all about it. You could just go out and enjoy the festivities. Now I literally do the old man move. I got a buddy who lives in town next to me. It's a well known town, South Jersey. A lot of people know it's called Haddonfield and they really do it up. This is really old Victorian homes they do up for Halloween, like literally make them like haunted houses and like a whole street gets blacked off. And it's a middle age show. It's a really good time. You basically just go there, walk from house to house, blackout, maybe take some psychedelics, who knows? And it's a really good time again because everyone's in a mask. You don't know if you're talking to a 50 year old or a 20 year old. It's a really funny time. So, yeah, definitely going to be a fun night. Friday.
- [04:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I said to my wife this morning, so, you know, tomorrow's Halloween. How do we get the fuck out of here and go somewhere so we can avoid it all? She goes, what do you mean? There's so many kids who are gonna come by, we can't disappoint them. I'm like, we don't even have kids at home. She goes, I know, but all the kids in their costume, they're so cute. We gotta be here at least for a little while. I lost that battle.
- [04:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. My favorite thing, which you can do if you wanna have fun is I saw there's a guy, every year he gives out potatoes.
- [05:01]
Chad Millman
I saw this.
- [05:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I love this guy. Because kids come by and they're like, I still have my potato from last year. I saved it this whole year. Now I have another one. I don't know, I think he's just being funny and the kids are into it. So I just made me think, you know, I don't give out candy, I just put a bucket out and yeah.
- [05:16]
Chad Millman
We will put out the bucket. And, you know, hopefully people are kind and they don't take all the candy at once. That's what we hope for. This is our Thursday week nine episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks that we both agree on. I don't know. I feel like we're far apart on a bunch of games, so it's going to be tricky to find those five. In case you missed it, Matt Mitchell. As I mentioned, our longtime producer has returned feedback as a gift. You have any comments about this show, just send them all to Matt Mitchell. Another reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. All right, let's get into this thing. Every week we give out our picks on Tuesday and every week, your professional betting colleagues, Simon, have strong opinions about what we discuss on the show, and they like to share them with you. And then we share them with everybody else here on Thursdays. In our favorite segment, it's time for sharp.
- [06:23]
Sponsor Voice 2
Cause I have to answer this phone.
- [06:27]
Colin Coward
All right.
- [06:29]
Simon Hunter
Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing, Chad, is it's strange days just this year.
- [06:39]
Chad Millman
Is it strange days because the wise guys agree with me on just about every single game.
- [06:43]
Simon Hunter
No, you're gonna get slaughtered this week. But you might not. That's the strange days because the public, they've been hit. They've been cashing on these weeks, even going back to last year, they have weeks like this where they're. It feels like they're stepping in it and they get away with it. And maybe it's a new age, but the favorites, like, you've seen all the data, Chad. It's like the best run they've ever had. The start of season right now and these last two weeks, it's been insane. What was 11 and 2 like you said last week, Normally, I would be hammering this, dancing on your grave, laughing at you because you were so Joe public, but you might be right. And I think a lot of the guys back up some of that. If you want to go through the plays that I disagree with them on. A lot of pros like Atlanta, I think that's a sharp side. A lot of pros like Pittsburgh, probably a sharp side. Again, I'm just on the opposite side of it. Plenty of pros like the Vikings, I don't get it. Feels like they're kind of just betting a number into I just a bag. I just don't trust jj. I don't get that either. Tons of pros. I Talk to like Tennessee on the other side of that one, the ones they agree with me on. Shockingly, a lot of pros love the Chiefs. I really thought that was going to be pros on the Bills and the public would be on the Chiefs, but plenty of guys I know back in the Chiefs here, it's, it's. There are Bills betters, a lot of pros on the Bills, but it's not all I thought was gonna be, you know, Joe's versus pros. And it's split on that game. I mean, a game I love, Chad just never not gonna get there, I guess. I don't love it. I don't wanna say I love it because it's Geno Smith, but the Raiders, like that's tons of pros I know hammered that at plus three and a half. I'm. I'm mad I didn't do anything with it because I just was like, can I just avoid this game? I don't wanna have money on Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence. It's down to minus two and a half now. I'm like, I might have to bet Trevor Lawrence. I don't want to though, because I just. That game stinks. The high heavens. Tons of pros on Houston with us. You know, I, I don't know how much you like that game, but I. Another game I thought was going to be very, very public. Heavy on the Broncos. It's actually not like that. Right. It's been pretty split. Most bookmakers I've talked to, they don't desperately need Houston there. I thought that was going to be a big professional spot, but, you know, this week it just seems like the pros, I know they're taking these home dogs like the Giants, and I try to ask them why, and they're just playing the number. Like they really give me logical reasons on it other than this is what they do long term and it's a winner. And I told you, I'm just scared about it because this, this has not been hitting like it used to these last couple years. And we've talked about it. The discrepancy between having a quarterback you can trust on fourth down on these short fields with these kickoff rules, it just, it's different and these favorites are just hitting differently. So yeah, we can dive into it, but really, really split up this week. Overall, over a lot of the games, but the most part, most pros I know too, they're just all over these home dogs and they just love the numbers they're getting on these home dogs.
- [09:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think that's a mistake. Let's get into it. Atlanta at New England. You mentioned it. Like the two players we were most concerned about not being available were Michael Penix and Drake London. And I think that's part of why this number shot up. Don't forget on Sunday this line was three and a half, shot up to five and a half. Actually got up to six at some point on Wednesday. But there is news out of Atlanta. Raheem Morris did say he was feeling really good about Michael Penix. It looks like Drake London also is on the road to playing. And if those two guys are playing, then it's a different conversation. And all of a sudden we're talking about a New England team that is to me highly overvalued because Drake May is just dropping bombs. And now all of a sudden everyone thinks he's sort of the second coming of Tom Brady and is racing up the charts in the MVP race. But Atlanta offensively is very well rounded when it has all of its players available. The. The Patriots have had a hard time stopping the run. Bijan Robinson can be a dominant presence. You kind of need to take last week off the board as such a massive anomaly. Burn the tape. Atlanta at five and a half. I totally get why the wise guys like that play. Explain to me your logic here. If. If by the way, the expectation holds true and Penix and London are playing.
- [11:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think everything you said is true that we've been saying it for weeks though. This Patriots team's overvalued Drake May. It's. I think one of their quarterback has done what he's done in history. I think it was Drew Brees or something like that that's basically completing 75 of their passes through eight weeks and have over 2,000 yards. And you know, the difference between obviously him and Drew Brees is Drake May is a great athlete. He's got incredible legs that when it's not working for him throwing the ball, he uses that gets first downs. And he's been a unicorn in that way for this Patriots team. Right. Like he keeps them in drives that they really shouldn't be in because he uses his legs. And then all the 50, 50. But I just said he's completed 75 of his passes. These aren't checkdowns like Drew Brees was in that 2018. This is guys throwing 30, 40 yards downfield. And it's working. It's all hitting. So everything you're saying about the regression is so true. I just don't know if this is the spot to get in front of it because it is Penix and it is outdoor like again. He's played two outdoor games this year. Penix as a starter with guys healthy. Carolina 0 to 30. They didn't score a single point against Carolina. Okay, not a big deal. Then they went to San Francisco.
- [12:42]
Chad Millman
It is a big deal.
- [12:43]
Simon Hunter
I know but I'm saying like it's a fluke game, right? Those things happen. Like you can't take much away from it. That's why I tried to not hold too much against him in that game. He went to San Francisco, looked anemic, scored 10 points against a defense with no Nick Bosa, no pass rush and no Fred Warner in their first game. Like made the 49ers defense look like a juggernaut without two all pros. So you know, 10 points on the road there. I just, I'm worried about Pennix. I just don't trust them yet. Rather I'd be at home indoors as a favorite. I like them on the road as a dog. I don't know if I can get there. But everything Chat's saying is so true. This is an incredible spot for the Falcons trend wise. Like there's a ton of trends. Patriots are based on this insane five game ATS streak. You want to fade those type of teams, especially young teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year, they tend to struggle this exact spot. So I get where you're doing it. I just, I haven't bet the Falcons. I just, I'm scared off of it. I'm probably just gonna end up with the Patriots on a moneyliner on Robin. Even though you're so right, like it's, it's a spot they should lose. But I think between the variable playing this young quarterback on the road and the way Drake May's been playing, I don't know, I just can't, I can't, I can't get there on this Falcons. Even though you're right, it's an inflated number.
- [13:56]
Chad Millman
Well, look, this is always a challenge and I think we have a similar challenge with the Colts and the Steelers. When are you fading the team that is riding so high. When do you get off that roller coaster because you know it's going to start to go down again. It doesn't just keep going up trying to time. That is the hardest part of some of this. So we're putting a pin in Atlanta, New England. Let's. We'll end up talking about it on Sunday because we might have a hard time finding five and this is going to be one where I think I.
- [14:25]
Simon Hunter
Have five I love. I just. You don't, you just don't like them.
- [14:28]
Chad Millman
Honestly, that's, that's the point of the game, my friend. We gotta find five that we both love. Chargers minus eight and a half at Tennessee. Interesting game. We talked about loving the Chargers on Tuesday. That's when it was at nine and a half. Now it's moved even more. You mentioned off the top, sharp calls. The wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This team has a very hard time looking like a professional football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half. I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value is on the Titans other than their eight and a half home home point. Eight and a half point home dog. Because the Chargers, they should crush in this game if they play like the Chargers can play.
- [15:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and a lot of it. I think it's just what we talk about every week. Like certain pros and certain groups, they're just playing the laws of averages like Chad's talking about here. These teams can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they? I think they can. Like you just talked about it. I, you're. You're missing key guys here. I can't state that enough. And you know, it's a unique spot too with this Chargers team coming off kind of a mini buy, right? I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world. Justin Herbert, who couldn't stand being in front of the camera is now, it feels like at every sporting event with a super hot girlfriend. And it's like, I love it. Like finally Herbert's being a QB one. What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that embracing it like and the moxy of it now I think to the season he's having. You know, people are loving Herbert, right? He's in the top what, five? We talked about the MVP betting right now. He's just way up there. And it's the stats, right? The 2,000 yards. He's like got a ton of passing yards. And when I really dove into this one, I kind of really thought to myself what are mean Chad back in here with Horrible on the road? Like are there numbers here to back up us taking him as a big favorite here? Because I, I want to see why the pros are fading. Horrible here because to me this is like an autoplay. Horrible, big favorite against a team that can't stop the run. Not Their best run defender. What is there to fear? And even the numbers back it up. Chad like our ball. He's close to the favorite 11 times with the Chargers. He's 7 and 4 against the spread in those games. If we're going just him as a road favorite. Harbaugh since he's been with The Chargers they're 10 and 2 against the spread. As a road favorite against the spread. That's crazy. Like I can't get over that. Now let's factor in extended rest. That's a big deal for this Chargers team. They are a perfect 5050 against the spread in the spot with horrible going from west coast to east coast. Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering. I just. It's under 10. I can't avoid it. We in Chatteron two huge chalk favorites. One in the lines, one in the chargers. I, I shockingly love them both.
- [17:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm not. This is where, you know the, the changes in the NFL the past few years have really wreaked havoc with how people look at these games and think about underdogs at home and big numbers and if you're not adjusting, look we could get bit on this game, right? Very possible we're going to come out looking like fools in this game. But you have to be throwing out a lot of the old theories because of the way people are going forward on fourth downs because of the length at which they can kick a field goal because of how bad some teams have been playing and the discrepancy in quarterback play has had a material difference on how these teams are covering the spreads the past couple years. And so it's just getting harder and harder to cover a big number for some of these teams also because teams are going for it more, they're scoring more touchdowns and that also makes it harder to cover a big number because you're coming back from further down.
- [18:56]
Simon Hunter
So and just some, some teams that like I'm trying to beat into people's heads here, some coaches they get their guys up for these type of road games. Like coming from west to east used to be an old school fade spot for professional betters. And with the cryotherapy the airplanes meet. So whatever it is, it's just not that way anymore. And even diving in just hardball. Not including him with just the Chargers him in the NFL his entire career go from east to west. He's 15 and 4 as a favorite on the road against the spread in the spot. He's been doing it for years with different quarterbacks, different teams. He just seems like a guy that, like, we talk all the time, coaching matters, getting their guys up, getting their guys ready for an early start. It doesn't affect his team. So, yeah, I, I am shocked. So much professional money is coming in and moving this number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value.
- [19:44]
Chad Millman
Well, you just mentioned the other game. Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine point favorite. Hard Rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice.
- [19:57]
Sponsor Voice 2
Detroit.
- [20:00]
Chad Millman
Why are people getting excited about JJ McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played which weren't very good? And getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings. The Lions are a dominant team. They do not have close games. If they have close games, it's games that they lose. When they win, they win so freaking big. And this is a classic spot for them to win so big. And I pointed this out on Tuesday, it's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. Their bottom 10 across the board in multiple advanced analytic stats. Like, this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks, who they may or may not have been keeping on the bench because they're kind of worried about how good he might be. What's the debate here? Don't. I don't want to hear. Oh, well, it's the number guy. Look at the teams. That's what I have to say.
- [21:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Honestly though, it's. I think a lot of these pros love jj. Like, they got me to flip in the summer. It must have been the summer heat, but like, I had zero view on jj, didn't really have any kind of read on them. And all summer these guys hyped him up, said he was gonna be the next second coming of Sam Darnold. And he's been anything but. Right. And this team this year, this Viking team, is what I thought they were going to be. Last year with Sam Donald, I thought it was gonna be a ton of dysfunction. A nameless defense that just can't get after the quarterback. But last year, everything went their way, right they got all these crazy turnover balances and this year it's not hitting the same. And you know, a couple trends that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team. The only one I could think of was well it's alliance team, huge win against the bucks and then a bye week. Right. Usually a team with a big win like that on extended home run Homestead. So you know, 10, 15 plus days in this exact spot. This is again a lot of data. They're 79, 104. So 44 against the spread in the spot. So you could say, well this isn't a great spot for the Lions. Same counter I have with that Chargers one. It's about the coaching like there. I can't see Campbell letting the guys have a letdown here. And okay, let's dive in the numbers with Campbell what he's been like with extended rest with this lions team. They're 15 and four against the spread covering by with seven points per game in this exact spot. So I love it. Like I love the fact that Campbell gets his guys ready for these type of games even when they're big favorites in the spot because you know, it's been what, Chad, three years now. The Lions have been getting respect from the books and they're still covering a hundred percent clip. They've been big favorites in a lot of these spots and we've had to just bite the bullet and take it because we know it's a little bit of an inflated line. But you know, to me it's under. It's just like the Chargers under that key number of 10 and 11. I'm going to take it here like the new NFL. I don't think the bookmakers, some of these offenses, they've caught up to it and could mean Chad get burned in the first half and the Lions go over three on fourth downs and we're down 10 to seven. Sure. But we still have the belief that we can get 28 points in the second half of this Lions team against a Vikings team. Like you said, just can't stop the run. So love this match of Lions haven't wavered. Hearing a lot of noise from a lot of pros on this Vikings team. But I think we're in agreement. I think they're betting a number here, but this is the wrong game. They'd be playing that type of game.
- [23:49]
Chad Millman
Yep, agree. Totally agree. We love the Lions here. All right, well, we got two games that we both agree on.
- [23:55]
Simon Hunter
Carolina, two big favorites.
- [23:57]
Chad Millman
Two big favorites.
- [23:58]
Simon Hunter
Jesus, what is happening this year?
- [24:01]
Chad Millman
What has Happened to us. Carolina is a 13 and a half point underdog on the road at the Green Bay packers and our question on Tuesday was would Bryce Young be starting? He is. I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something that was interesting to me. Carolina allows the fifth fewest plays per game which equals a top 10 success rate on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get big gains early in a series. The packers rake 23rd in plays per game. They're very explosive so we know they're going to be able to score points, but they do it while not getting a lot of long drives. They don't have a lot of plays over the course of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young and a run defense that until this past week against the Bills had been trending upward. And the fact that they are very good in early down success rate, they might be able to limit the packers scoring opportunities which makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am I stretching? Am I reaching? Am I just trying to find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers, which I haven't done by the way. I'm just sort of laying out a theory on a really big number for a team that had been trending upward and I think that the packers might be overvalued because of what's happened the past couple weeks.
- [25:43]
Simon Hunter
You're hilarious. I thought you bet this. I bet the Panthers but it's not one of my bigger bets. I'm simply, I mean sounds stupid. We are simply playing the number here. The packers. Oh and I mean Jordan Love specifically 0 and 4 against the spread as a favorite of 7 points or more. And we've seen it this season especially they just play the level of their competition. Right. Like if you get them against a good team and all eyes are on them and they're in a big spot, it seems like their offense rolls, they put up a ton of points, they keep the foot on the gas. Seems like this year when they're playing against bad teams they just don't press. They're not trying to blow teams out and roll. So it's a huge number. I'll join you on especially the fact that you know, the Panthers just got blown out, embarrassed their own. Right. This is tends to be a nice spot where a team wants to bounce back and historically teams in the spot are 61 against the spread. They're losing by 30 points or more at home now on the road so trends like it. But yeah, they're just, they're just other games I've bet into but I exactly, I know exactly where you're coming from. We have to play this one. But it's just tough for me to bet it confidently just because this Panthers team can get rolled here. Run defense if the things get or if the Green Bay gets things rolling offensively like we saw with them against Pittsburgh. Horrible matchup. Then you factor in the fact that seems like Parson has kind of figured out that defense got more comfortable. Not a great matchup for Panthers either that both their tackles cannot stop Parsons if he wants to get to Bryce. So it were really hard playing the number here and trusting that the packers just don't roll bad teams.
- [27:20]
Chad Millman
Well, we don't have to put it in but it is, it is going to be a game where all of a sudden it's not brass balls. It might percolate as well.
- [27:29]
Simon Hunter
I'm saying Sunday morning, if you're like this is one of my two or three I need in, I'm not going to fight you on because I'm going to bet it. But I'm like, I hope Jack can avoid this one, please.
- [27:36]
Chad Millman
It's definitely not, it's definitely not like I already know the games where I'm most heavily invested and this is not going to be one of those games. I can guarantee you Indianapolis because we.
- [27:47]
Simon Hunter
Both are so wishy washy about it. We know it's the right play.
- [27:50]
Chad Millman
We know it's 100% the right play. I'm going to watch it on Sunday. We're going to be like, are you freaking kidding me that we'd not play this game? Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you want to bet on sports this week, roll with the Hard Rock Bet App. Week nine kicks off with Baltimore at Miami. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. Derrick Henry has scored a touchdown in 12 straight games against AFC east opponents. Devon 8chan has reached the end zone in eight straight home games. If you like that, you can bet it with live odds right there in Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus tonight on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a Thursday night Parlay Boost for the games. Boost your same game Parlay or SGP Max so your bet pays extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [29:33]
Colin Coward
This is Colin Coward from the Colin coward podcast on Fox 1. Now you can stream your favorite live sport so you can be there live for the biggest moments. That means NFL Sundays and college football games, nascar, Major League Baseball, postseason and more. With FOX one, you get it all live edge of your seat plays, high octane moments and that feeling like you're right there in the action. Fox one we live for live streaming now.
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- [31:02]
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- [32:04]
Sponsor Voice 4
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- [32:34]
Chad Millman
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is a three point underdog at home. You like the Colts, I like the Steelers. So we're at a standstill here. The wise guys have come in on the Steelers as well from sharp calls. I think there's some schematic issues. I think there's on both sides. By the way, I think the Steelers defense has been terrible. I think they are primed to be completely cut up by Daniel Jones in the spot because they play a lot of single high safety and that's a great way for Daniel Jones to find open receivers, which he's been doing. He's been excellent against single high safety this year. But the Colts also have injuries at both cornerback positions. They are not very good covering tight ends and Steelers are running tight end sets. You know, double tight end sets 50% of the time. So last week we liked Tomlin because he was a three and a half point dog at home coming off a bad loss in which his defense did not play well.
- [33:37]
Sponsor Voice 2
I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we can make.
- [33:39]
Simon Hunter
One of you guys quit today.
- [33:41]
Chad Millman
Historically that still holds up, right? He's still the greatest coach in NFL history covering as a dog of three plus points.
- [33:50]
Sponsor Voice 2
Let the greatest of all time look at your work.
- [33:53]
Chad Millman
Let's go Matt.
- [33:54]
Simon Hunter
Like we talked about the the pros, they're all over Pittsburgh, especially at the +3 and a half. That's any guy I talk to. It's not Pittsburgh +3. It's the 3 1/2 on that to key number like you said, anybody can look all the trends love Tomlin in this exact spot like a blowout loss at home the week before. Now he's a home dog again against a team well above.500. This is usually a smash spot. I agree with you. But a lot of those Tomlin stats are old and I'm trying to adjust to that because it's the just it's a new age and we've been betting that way. We have a winning record this year even though it's a chalky share in history because we've lean into it where it's like certain games, certain matchups. I know exactly what you're saying and talking about like Daniel Jones, he's been due for a letdown game. Can you know, Jonathan Taylor get muddied down in a sloppy field outdoors? Like is there a path for this Pittsburgh team to win and pull off the subset? Of course, like this cold steam. That's what's so funny. Everyone putting them number one and their power ratings. It's like the stupidest exercise in all of NFL.
- [35:02]
Chad Millman
Well, yeah. I mean when we get to the next game, I had a thought by.
- [35:05]
Simon Hunter
The way, but it's just like what are we doing here? And like what world would the Colts be favored over the Chiefs at a neutral field, let alone even this Ravens team. We have all these questions about if it's the playoffs and Lamar's going. It's just none of it made sense. Like this Colts team has a ton of holes, like you're saying. And another team where they're on an amazing ATS streak like we always say, they tend to have let down games. No. 1 like we're talking about, no one goes 15 and 3 against the spread or 14 and 2 like to start the year against spread. It just doesn't happen. So maybe I won't force us to take the culture. I'm just, I'm dug in on this team where I love the way they're playing, the way the offense schemes. Like all these teams are giving problems to this Pittsburgh team. They've not faced an offense like this Colts team. This is the best offense by far. They face. I mean Green Bay as good as they made them look. That's not like a juggernaut offense. They had not been rolling. They had been inconsistent these last couple weeks. They got right in that second half against this bad Pittsburgh defense. So I just, I'm trying to get there. I really am with you, Chad, because I, I think you're in the right here. Being on this Pittsburgh side. I just, I can't do it. I'm very public here with the because again, no pros are on this Colts team. All the pros are on Pittsburgh, especially the three and a half. So very, very chalky play by me. But I just, I trust the scheme for this Colts team and I, I don't trust Rogers being consistent. Still, Rogers, he can put together a good quarter or two for you, but he hasn't put a complete four quarter game in my opinion yet this season. So yeah, I, I like where you're at. I get why you're out there. Maybe you can avoid this one for the contest. But yeah, we're split. I'm on Colts minus three. You're probably going to be on Pittsburgh plus three and a half.
- [36:49]
Chad Millman
Yep. I think that's a completely accurate assessment.
- [36:52]
Sponsor Voice 2
It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squashing grapes.
- [36:57]
Chad Millman
A game that we both like. Denver at Houston Houston is a one and a half point favorite right now. Simon this is going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [37:15]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
- [37:21]
Chad Millman
It's been sitting at minus one and a half all week. It's starting to trend towards two. Remember everybody, Sunday night we're doing early leans for week nine. We identified the Texans at plus one and a half as a game we were going to be playing. I know we both bet it at plus one and a half. We even said on Tuesday we still liked it at Texans minus one and a half. Christian Kirk, receiver for the Texans, likely back. Nico Collins is potentially back. They're waiting on news that he could clear the concussion protocol, but he was limited in practice on Wednesday. So they are hopeful and against a team that's missing pat certain. So that could be an even bigger advantage as to why we like the Texans than them getting back any players because the Broncos pressure depends on being able to bring extra players at least extra player because Pastor Tane can handle half of the field by himself if he's not playing. That changes everything defensively for the Broncos. Sean Payton even admitted like that is just a massive change for us that we're going to have to manage. You can't just, you know, do the same scheme that they were doing. He said that in press conference earlier this week. So we're still on Houston minus one and a half.
- [38:40]
Simon Hunter
And as good as Denver has been, I think we're both in agreement. We've had major questions this year about Bo Nix and him being the quarterback in this league for. After a year of teams having tape on him, you've seen teams have made adjustments and, you know, even I want to give him credit because the hardest thing to do is go off script right after the script is done in the second half, teams kind of know what you're going to do, and they've adjusted to you. He's actually performed really well. Bo next this year, like, he's really like that second half against the Eagles, really impressive. Obviously, second half, or just, I should say, fourth quarter against the Giants, something we've never seen before. Two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. But I. I've talked about it a little bit. Coming the year. I really like betting Bo as a favorite like we did last week, and I really like to fade him as a dog. Like, he just. Whatever it's been in his career, whenever the line's under three or less, he's five and six straight up. But as a dog, he's four and seven against the spread. So, you know, last year, what was he, 8,090as a favorite? He only was. You only could really get him when he was a dog. And if you go back and look, it's because when he's playing really good teams, he struggles, and when he faces really good defenses, he seems to struggle. So as much as we have to rely on CJ Here, and it's a little worrisome, right, this can be the best pass for us the Texans have faced all year. No doubt about it. I think this is gonna be a great match for this Texas defense. I think they're going to get away with a bunch here. And to me, that secondary of this Denver team that can be passed on downfield, and you saw last week, when CJ Gets going his downfield throws, they look in rhythm. That's how they can beat you, right? Getting you really spread out. So another game where I was looking for reasons to maybe get off Houston, because it feels like I've been riding them a little bit here and they've been cashing for me. But it's another great match for them. And, you know, we'll talk about. We can talk maybe about the 49ers game, but basically, this Houston team, their defense played like 30 snaps. Like their offense, I think they played 75 or 76 snaps against that 49ers defense. Historically, really good defense. Like defenses like them, they're giving up like less than 20 points per game when they play a following game where they played less than 40 snaps, it's been really beneficial for that defense. Right. It's like a mini buy for them. So I like the spot of this Houston team being semi rested because they had such an easy matchup the previous weekend. Just the fact that Denver feels a little overvalued, people are still feels like they're looking at the records. Right. You're still looking at Houston team that in the public eye is not that good. I mean, it was just, what, two weeks ago they had one win and they had, I think it was four losses or five losses. So I think there's another spot for them to keep cruising. And yeah, really banking here on this defense, honestly, just like last week against 49ers, like, yeah, I think we're both in agreement. We don't really trust Houston's offense, but this defense, you know, between Will Anderson and in the secondary, it's just a really, really great defense Houston has this year.
- [41:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's what's interesting to me. And you're right, by the way, the Texans last week had 75 plays on offense and only 44 plays on defense. So, you know, a good 25% less than what a team would normally play if most teams get about 20, get about 60 snaps. So on defense, I feel like the defense is what's being forgotten in this conversation for the Texans. Everyone is always so focused on CJ Stroud and his struggles and that he hasn't been playing as well and that he's missing throws. And last week was a good game for CJ because they were consistent. They did have a lot of long drives. He was converting for the most part. But people forget how good this defense is. And it's better than the Broncos defense. And I don't know if that's being discussed as much like the Houston Texans defense is on pace to set multiple NFL records over the course of a season for how well they're playing. So that's the reason why I like it. It's. It's. They're missing certain on defense for the Broncos and the Texans defense is freaking awesome. And I feel like it's being slept on.
- [42:53]
Simon Hunter
Love it.
- [42:56]
Chad Millman
You know what you don't love, which I do. Jacksonville Jaguars minus two and a half. Minus 120 at Hard Rock. So most places it's minus three. At the Las Vegas Raiders, you say this is square. You say it's a trap, I say it's obvious. And this is even with Max Crosby expected to play, he did not practice on Wednesday, maybe limited on Friday. Back injury. He's the only weapon that would scare me as a. That should scare the Jaguars on offense. Because the real question here is about Geno. Brock Bowers will be back. Can Geno's beast. Can Geno be so much better with Brock Bowers that it will allow the Raiders to be offensively competent? Because I do think both teams are going to have to score a crapload of points in this game.
- [43:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's again a game two, three years ago I would be fighting you on taking a huge stand. I got no interest in doing that with this game here. Like I will put my energy elsewhere. But I'm glad the professionals backed me up. Like clearly like they the money came in. Oh yeah, totally. Raiders three and a half apparently was a gift. I'm kind of mad I missed it, but it's like I just was like, okay, maybe this will get up to five or six. Like let this keep running. And it didn't. They hammered it like this now minus two and a half. I could be talked into it honestly. Even though I know for a million reasons this is the wrong bet. The wrong side. You're betting Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite and he's beloved by public money. I mean just every bookmaker I talk to all different books. It's all jags money, never ending amount of it. And what Chad just said it's for good reason. Like if there's no Max Crosby, what is the fear Trevor Lawrence who's giving him issues that day. The only thing you can hang on is this will be Geno Smith finds it and it's a shootout right. 34 to 31. Last team who has the ball wins it. So it's a crazy line. Like I just can't hear the way the books are pricing it. I I took some on the over just in case there is no Max Crosby. The total is 44 and a half. Like, okay, I'll bite on that. But you could talk me to probably come Sunday. I just. My whole job here is trying to protect people and just give them the insight I hear. And it's like I knew the pros would be on this. I was trying to protect you and them. Even though I hate this. I do not want to have to plant my flag and stand tall on the Raiders and Geno Smith. But I just every inch of my body just like you are with Pittsburgh. It feels like it's the wrong thing to do. But when I'm fading Pittsburgh, I'm fading them with the number one offense and Daniel Jones and that juggernaut of a Colts offense, I can't feel confident in the same with Trevor Lawrence who just never ending amount lets us down going back. Not that you have a horseshoe up your ass, Chad. I cannot believe we covered that Jags Chiefs game. Like now that we're three weeks out, like this Chiefs team has been absolute incredible and it's like, oh, that was a miracle. A miracle cover. So that's maybe my biggest issues. I just can't get over this Jags team still is not the type of team that deserves the amount of respect they're getting right now. But like we said, this is really you betting about how bad this Raiders team is, how bad Gino's been and you're getting a good number now, especially in my two and a half at Hard Rock. So again, I'm not gonna give you a hard time. I just was at the three because it was like, what are we doing here? We're just gonna walk into all these traps. But maybe the Lions move so much. We got the best of the number here in the pros, they got the best of the number of three and a half.
- [46:41]
Chad Millman
Schematically I like the fact that the Raiders don't know how to cover that their defensive backfield is just so bad and allowing the highest completion rate for quarterbacks in the NFL. And so it's also to me more than Trevor Lawrence, it's a bet on Liam Cohn. I like Liam Cohn. I think he's a good coach and I think he'll do more over the bye week to scheme up a win and make things good for Trevor Lawrence. Then I have faith in Pete Carroll and what he can do with just a depleted talent roster.
- [47:14]
Simon Hunter
And I'll give the one trend, we all know the one trend, what's going to be. It's basically a team with a win percentage below 40% a game. Coming after the game, they just lost by 30 plus points. 96, 68 and 4 against the spread. So 59% since 2003. This season, those teams in this exact spot, they're 4 and 1 against the spread. So again, that's a Raiders spot. We know that. But my whole point to agree with Chad is that maybe the lines move so much at this point. It is a good Jag sign. But that just I. I knew there was gonna be something return for that because it's just like, man, why, why do I want to bet this Raiders team? There must be a reason. But I hate it and I'M glad it's moved so much. I can maybe avoid it. I don't know if Chad can avoid it now. He loves his jack side.
- [47:59]
Chad Millman
Oh, no. I already bet the jags are minus three.
- [48:01]
Simon Hunter
Oh, God. We'll get the two and a half. You @ least got a good number now.
- [48:05]
Chad Millman
I definitely bet the Jags are minus three. Kansas City. Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says when it was one and a half. It's moved towards two at a lot of places, but when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing Mahomes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense. I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering, but I think there's a difference between a Colts riding high and covering and a Chiefs riding high covering. And I know you're with me on this. I don't think we're buyers on the Bills defense and that's the biggest problem to me.
- [49:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, not a buyer in the Bills defense. And I just, I'm not a buyer on Josh on right now. Like, I just. Something seems off with them. I talked about it going in the draft process. The number one guy I trust, trust for wide receiver value evaluation is Steve Smith. He's. He does not pull punches. When he breaks down this Buffalo receiving core like Keon Coleman, he says he shouldn't even be in the league. Like this guy can't get separation, doesn't run crisp routes, doesn't help Josh Allen. Josh Allen's in scramble mode, which Shakir, you know, he's been a great receiver for them because he get. He does that for them. So that's allowing 20 points or fewer. So it's happened 28 times in his career. He is 23 and five straight up against those teams, 22 and five ATS against those type of teams. That's what makes him Superman. That's why he's MVP of the league last year. Josh Allen, he faces his dominant defense. It didn't matter. He's. There's no scheme to stop him right now. It just feels like his receivers himself are beating themselves. He just doesn't look comfortable. His throws aren't great. He doesn't make the right reads either. Like he just locks into guys and when he's in scramble mode, doesn't feel like his receivers are helping him out either. So you know, just going back to the data too, him being a home dog, super rare. Like I, I look through it, it's only happened about five times and he's won every time. The only one loss was two months. So we, we, we know the deal here. Like you said, the resistance is at 2. A bunch of books did hit 2 and a half. Ton of money came in. Ton of money came in on this Bills team. Shocked. It held it too. I thought it would go back down to one and a half. So that's what I keep telling people. It is split. The pros are split down the middle here and like me, I've taken a large position on this Chiefs team. I really like it. I know some guys out of their way. They've taken really large position on this Bill. Especially now they've gotten the two two and a half. So I love these type of games, right. It's going to be one in the sports books. A lot of yelling, a lot of back and forth. I just think one team in this Chiefs like Chad said Pacheco is a big injury. There's no doubt about it. But Pacheco still has not been right since coming back from his injuries the last two years. And the flip side, I just think defensively, offensively, it all feels like it's clicking for this Chiefs team. Just if they feel like a totally different team than what they were to start the season just because they've gotten so healthy. This young defense, they're playing in rhythm with spags defensive calls. So I love it. It's a true test here for this Chiefs defense. And on the flip side, Mahomes and this offense, they should have no problem against this Bill's defense. Like this is a great matchup for them. So it really is. Once again we all know Cook top five running back. He's a game changer. I think Spag takes him away and puts it all in Josh Allen. Because Josh Allen, like I said, he's just struggled this year. He's not been. I know they have him as like a top three guy in the MVP voting. That's super fraudulent to me. He's had a very easy schedule. He's just not playing at the level I expect him to play at. So I love this is a true test for him and shockingly a game they kind of need to keep up with this Patriots team in their division. In a game that the Chiefs need to keep up with Denver in their own division. So I love it that both these teams are semi desperate and all the history behind this matchup. So I am glad you're in sync with me on this Chiefs team because this, this is the type of game where I could see why you'd be on the Bills. So it feels good. At least we're in sync in what we have to three games now that we like to put in. So there we go. We're making a stack.
- [52:39]
Chad Millman
We're getting there. You make a really good point about the playoffs versus the regular season. This is a playoff game. Yeah, right. The Chiefs are 5 and 3, the Bills are 5 and 2. The Bills are tied atop the AFC east with the Patriots.
- [52:53]
Simon Hunter
No, they're behind. They're behind a half a game.
- [52:55]
Chad Millman
They're behind. Right. They're behind half a game. The, The Chiefs are 5 and 3, the Broncos are 6 and 2. So this is a game that over the course of the season is going to have a huge impact on playoff seedings. If the Chiefs continue to play as well as they've been playing. Could be after this weekend. If what happens, if what we expect to happen happens, the Broncos are going to be have three losses. So the Chiefs need to keep pace. They can't go to 5 and 4 playing as well as they've been playing. And to me it actually is about that defense. They've just been so in seek in sync since that Jaguars game. It's almost like they were so embarrassed in that Jaguars game and the way Trevor Lawrence was able to get into the end zone off of a botched play. I think they've just been a different team. So hopefully that continues to be the case.
- [53:50]
Simon Hunter
This again, I don't even want to put on the defense. Like to me they're two of their worst losses here, the Eagles in that Jags game. I think like they should. I think he does himself. Mahomes puts it on himself. Those two pick sixes.
- [54:01]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [54:03]
Simon Hunter
Again, red zone pick sixes. They're even. Even Mahomes is human enough that, that he can't bounce back from this type of scenario. So yeah, it's, it is interesting. Like they could, like you just said, their record could be totally different if moms didn't throw those two pick sixes in there when he's about to score touchdowns. So like we said, it's feel like a Chiefs team still a little undervalued here. We're getting a good number on them.
- [54:24]
Colin Coward
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- [54:53]
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- [55:53]
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- [56:55]
Sponsor Voice 4
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- [57:25]
Chad Millman
I put in these last two games, which happen to be the primetime games, because I think we disagree.
- [57:30]
Simon Hunter
Yamaha.
- [57:31]
Chad Millman
It's fright night Seattle at Washington. Washington was at three and a half. It's down to three.
- [57:36]
Simon Hunter
You like Commanders.
- [57:37]
Chad Millman
I like the Commanders. Three and a half. I like. At three. I'm sort of off it, but at three and a half, I liked the Commanders and that's where the money has taken it.
- [57:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [57:49]
Chad Millman
Arizona at Dallas. I like Dallas at two and a half. I think you like Arizona.
- [57:56]
Simon Hunter
The Cowboys are pro football's glamour team, dynamic, progressive and spectacular. Again, like Arizona, it's not a. I'm not gonna fight you on. If you. If Sunday morning you want to put Dallas and it's minus two and a half, I'm there. Whether you want to hear some DAX stats. I got tax stats for David if.
- [58:14]
Chad Millman
You want to share. Fantastic.
- [58:16]
Simon Hunter
Well, quickly, I'll do. I just thought this was interesting about Sam Darnold. Like, we, I feel like we do give him love in some of his flowers, but I just thought it was interesting that going back even to 2020, when he was. Before he became the same door we know and love now, he's like incredible off bye weeks. Like, it's. It's really wild. When you go back and look at his stats, he averages 27.5 points per game after bye weeks. So it's. I, I just thought that was unique because it's not just a fluke from like last year with the Vikings. It's all throughout his career, whatever that extended prep is, he does really get really well. And we know this Commander's defense is atrocious. I mean, they are horrible. And that's why, like, I'm. I total understand of why you're on Washington. You like them because, like, same with Pittsburgh, all these games we're talking about here. You're playing a number in a situation where this is going to be a heavily public side in the Seahawks on the road in a primetime game, historically, it probably would be a good spot for the Commanders. But you got a bum knee in Jay and Daniels playing against a ferocious defense in Seattle that travels really well. And you just taking away Terry McLaren again, like, I mean, you saw him in that Chiefs game. He was the only one doing anything like Debo. He already looks like it's week 17 on those legs. He's just not running like he was in those first two, three weeks. So I just, I get what you're doing here. You're playing the number and it's the professional side. The pros are on this, like I said, the public. So now they're just like me with the Colts. It's a very public side of me taking the Seahawks here. But once again, I'm back in what I think is a really consistent, good offense and rhythm. And those Sam Darnold stats give me a peace of mind. It doesn't seem like he has let downs because this is a let down spot for Seattle. Like we talk about trap spots. This is.
- [60:03]
Chad Millman
Oh yeah.
- [60:03]
Simon Hunter
Of a trap spot. So that's, those are just some stats I want to give out. So yeah, we're obviously on the opposite sides with that one. Let's, let's go to the Cowboys game because I do have some great Dax stats. You're, you're probably right here with your early read and I'm probably missing it. I'm probably overvaluing the effect. The Cardinals, all their games are so close. This does seem like the type of game where Dak could open it up and beat up on this team. You know, it's a prime time game. Right? But I mean, you talked about it. It's. It really is a. You're betting on deck and nothing else when you bet this team. So I'll give some great Dax stats about him just in these night games. He's 2915 and won his career in night games. 26 and 18 ATS and night games. That's 2, 0 this season as well. People probably remember he covered against the Eagles week one and packers is a guy that, you know since 2021 in night games he's 14 and seven against the spread. And so like Dak shows up in primetime games and plays well. We've seen that consistently and you know, when they're playing these night games since 2020 at home, Dak is perfect as a favorite. He's a perfect 13 0, beating his opponents by almost 19 points per game in the spot. So like there's a lot of stats to love with Dak playing in these prime time night games. And maybe I am overvaluing this Cardinals team. Like I said that they play all these close games. They are due to get blown out by somebody like the way they've been in all these games. How much longer can it go on for. They're just. They're not that good of a team like we've talked about. And, you know, it's a number now that's under three. At three, I was okay, I could get there with Arizona. I'll take that. But now we're down to the key number of two and a half. Like I said, if you want to talk me into. After I've seen all those stats about Dak and these exact performances and these exact spots, it's like, all right, I won't fight it. I'll join Chad, I guess. But I don't feel good about it.
- [62:01]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I think we're agreed on the Chargers minus eight and a half, the Lions minus eight and a half, the Chiefs minus two, and Houston minus one and a half. So, Jesus, how did we end up loving and agreeing on four favorites or.
- [62:20]
Simon Hunter
Flipped on all the dogs like the dogs you like. I don't. And the dogs I like, you don't.
- [62:24]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [62:24]
Simon Hunter
It's just a weird wonky.
- [62:25]
Chad Millman
That's right. Who. So who else could be the fifth? Do you know what I mean?
- [62:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think we'll have a real. We'll fight about it Sunday morning about getting that one lesson there. Because, like, there's always a team, one or two that pop up over the weekend. I end up loving more than I did today because I'm around different people and they're giving me different perspective and giving me different numbers. But to look at, I did. I mean, again, I hate it. But, like, it's a pro spot. That giant spot's a very professional spot. Like I said, that 49ers team played whatever you said it was. 66 snaps on defense. Now they're all 75. Yeah. Back to back road game against a quarterback that scrambles and you have no pass rush.
- [63:04]
Chad Millman
The Giants are so beat up, they have nobody.
- [63:08]
Sponsor Voice 2
I don't want to bet it.
- [63:09]
Simon Hunter
I'm just saying, like, that's what we're talking about, though. That's when you dive in the numbers. And that's just. You're betting the number because it's a. It is a spot. It's a professional spot. So we'll see two Bears if there's no Flacco. Flacco's banged up.
- [63:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [63:21]
Simon Hunter
It's still interesting. Minus two and a half. I could get there on the Bears, an interesting spot for them as well. So there's. There's some games I think we'll be able to pop on, but like you said, right now we're Just, you know, and it happens every week. We've been very good this year, being kind of in sync. Finally, a little bit split on the chalk and the. The dogs we like. And that's a lot of pros this week. It's that way. It's just the season just throwing you for a loop. It's just not going the way it usually goes with these dogs. So I'm just trying to be careful. That's why I like that we're so chalk heavy. The chalk. It's been hitting for us again. Last week, our only two losses, both dogs. So it's just. We're trying to adjust, but it's hard, man. It is hard to do after all these years of bedding dogs.
- [64:04]
Chad Millman
All right, so I'll recap sort of where we stand at the end, but Simon's biggest bets.
- [64:11]
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man. Chiefs definitely heavily invested. Houston taking a pretty big position on them as well. And shock on the lines and Chargers like we're about to do the Moneyline. Robin. I have a heavy amount of money invested in those two money lines together.
- [64:32]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I'm glad to see it because those are the four games that I have pinpointed, other than the Jags, from the beginning. So, I mean, I guess I had the Jags. I did not pinpoint the Chargers until yesterday when it got to eight and a half.
- [64:46]
Simon Hunter
But, yeah, I'd say those four were giving out. Houston's my least confident one. Just because I. I still have questions about cj.
- [64:52]
Chad Millman
Huh. I. I'm surprised because I actually feel almost more confident about that than I do the Chargers.
- [65:01]
Simon Hunter
I don't. I love those horrible stats. Got me fired up. He just. He him. And being 15 and 4 on East coast trips on extended rest is, like, insane.
- [65:09]
Chad Millman
All right, let's talk about some of these. The money line favorite parlay. Why not Kansas City, Houston Lions, Chargers, and one more. Rams. Packers.
- [65:27]
Simon Hunter
No, because they're big. Let's. Let's. Let's get the juice down a little bit. Let's throw in. I mean, you like. You like Jacksonville, Chad? I love Jacksonville. Minus 150.
- [65:41]
Chad Millman
Great. Put it.
- [65:41]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate that. Or we could throw in Dallas. Minus 145. I don't. I like that. I think I like Dallas more than I like. Fuck, I hate them both, kind of. Actually, I'm thinking about it. Those are two good options because, again, you're not with me on the Colts, which I think they're. Yeah, they're minus 170. So the odds aren't as good either.
- [66:01]
Chad Millman
Let's go with Jacksonville.
- [66:03]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [66:03]
Chad Millman
Moneyline. Round robin favorites Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville. The dogs.
- [66:16]
Sponsor Voice 2
My dog likes your dog.
- [66:19]
Simon Hunter
Your dog likes my dog.
- [66:21]
Chad Millman
Steelers.
- [66:23]
Simon Hunter
Steelers. Put your, your Atlanta at Falcons in there.
- [66:26]
Chad Millman
Yep, Falcons.
- [66:28]
Simon Hunter
I gotta force them in. Just, just because I just. There's not a lot of dogs I like this week, but Josh Allen plus 115.
- [66:36]
Chad Millman
Commanders.
- [66:39]
Simon Hunter
That would be you. They're plus 140. So that is good value.
- [66:43]
Chad Millman
Primetime game. Jaden Daniels off a blowout. I know, like, I know all the things you're saying, but it's also a great spot. Historically, it's just going to be a good spot.
- [66:55]
Simon Hunter
It is, but it's again, it's a bum knee. Quarterback out of rhythm without his number one receiver. It's not that great. We're just playing the number simply.
- [67:03]
Chad Millman
Sometimes that's what you do.
- [67:05]
Simon Hunter
It is, but it's, that's what I'm trying to bring some logic to it because I just can't take all these home dogs. It's just not like it used to be. They're not all going to be hitting like this, but what do we have? Four.
- [67:14]
Chad Millman
We have three. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Buffalo, Giants.
- [67:24]
Simon Hunter
Giants. Plus 125. I'll do it. And then what do you think about Cincy? Plus 135?
- [67:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [67:31]
Simon Hunter
Because I'm not going to bet till Sunday flat goes out. We can switch it out and put in, put in your commanders.
- [67:38]
Chad Millman
I mean, you could also do Denver.
- [67:41]
Simon Hunter
Denver. Yeah. They are technically plus 110. That's fair.
- [67:46]
Chad Millman
All right, let's do Denver. All right, so the underdog parlay. Pittsburgh, Atlanta. Atlanta, Buffalo, Giants, Denver. The favorites parlay. Kansas City. Houston, Chargers. Detroit. Jacksonville.
- [68:04]
Simon Hunter
First survivor. I, I, I can't believe I'm doing it, but I, I gotta use them. I'm taking Chargers.
- [68:10]
Chad Millman
Okay, Chargers.
- [68:13]
Simon Hunter
It's gonna be hilarious if I've, I've Survivor pulls this year.
- [68:17]
Chad Millman
Survivor. I'm so out of it. All right, Sharp versus square. Simon, who are you going with?
- [68:25]
Simon Hunter
Well, you won last week, didn't you?
- [68:27]
Chad Millman
We both you at Pittsburgh. I had, I had the, the New York Jets. Let's see. Brass balls. We chose Houston. Chad's choice was Detroit. Simon says was Kansas City. You know what? Jacksonville Jaguars.
- [68:48]
Simon Hunter
Thank God. Give me the Chargers. I was, I was hoping you wouldn't take the Charger so I could. Yeah, give me the Chargers. Look at us. Couple of squares. Not charter square. Square versus square this week.
- [68:57]
Chad Millman
Square versus square. All right, so the games we, we're pretty locked in on for Sunday Chargers minus eight and a half, Kansas City minus two, the Texans minus one and a half and Detroit minus eight and a half and we'll have a decision to make for the final five on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday morning. You're going to get to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon and we are definitely going to panic and make human decisions that we regret the rest of the day. We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [69:59]
Colin Coward
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- [70:28]
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- [72:19]
Colin Coward
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- [72:43]
Simon Hunter
See paypal.com promoter points can be redeemed for cash and more.
- [72:46]
Colin Coward
Pay in force subject to terms and approval. PayPal Inc. And MLS 910457 this is an iHeart podcast.