Podcast Summary
Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Segment: Sharp or Square – Sharp NFL Playoffs Divisional Bets
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Date: January 16, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square," presented by Hard Rock Bet, dives deep into NFL Divisional Playoff betting angles across four games: Bills–Broncos, Niners–Seahawks, Texans–Patriots, and Rams–Bears. Pro bettor Simon Hunter and host Chad Millman unpack sharp-vs-square action, meaningful line moves, public/professional betting splits, and the impact of injuries and weather. The show closes with a guest segment analyzing the Indiana vs. Miami CFB National Championship market.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Mike Tomlin’s Firing: Shockwaves in Coaching Circles [02:38–07:20]
- Simon and Chad discuss the shocking firing of Steelers HC Mike Tomlin.
- Simon: "Man has never had a losing season... we can go through the quarterback list, just a ton of trash, and had a winning season every year." [03:03]
- Both emphasize Tomlin’s “voodoo magic,” ability to win ugly, and the folly of franchises discarding steady, proven head coaches.
- The decision contrasted with Harbaugh’s departure from Baltimore, with Simon suggesting the Steelers' approach was more rational.
2. Sharp Calls: The Pro Betting Landscape for the Divisional Round [08:10–10:37]
- Simon breaks down early sharp/pro splits:
- Most sharp money is on:
- 49ers at -7.5
- Patriots at -3 (but Simon is “having a tough time getting on board”) [08:40]
- Rams/Bears & Bills/Broncos: Sharps split, but some heavy under action in Chicago. On Bills/Broncos, a respected group hit the over early—but with Bills WR injuries, that action cooled; wind also driving line movement.
- “Books are going to need Denver here, and they're letting a hold as a favorite. So that's a really fun game...” [10:19]
- Most sharp money is on:
3. Bills at Broncos [12:07–22:24]
Key Details:
- Line flipped: Denver now -1, despite public money all over Bills.
- The under is popular: Expected run-heavy game plans for both teams due to injuries, schemes, and weather.
- Simon (concerns): “That’s the one stat that literally scared the shit out of me. By our guy, Evan Abrams. The line has flipped... Five other times in the playoffs. The record of the team of flipped to... one and four in this exact scenario.” [14:11]
Notable Moment:
- Josh Allen compared to the "Monty Python" knight: “They cut off his arm... just a flesh wound... That's why the total is so scary, because we've seen with both of these teams...” [19:53]
Consensus:
- Lean to the under (waiting for best number).
- “Total is the thing I’m most interested in. The side is less appealing to me.” – Chad [21:01]
- Late-game points are a 2025–26 trend—caution on second-half scoring swings.
4. 49ers at Seahawks [22:24–28:51]
Key Details:
- Line: SF -7 (down from -7.5); Total: 45 (down from 45.5).
- Handicapping the matchups:
- Million: “Mike Macdonald is not gonna want to let Sam Darnold take this game away from his defense... game plan will be conservative.” [23:49]
- Significant injuries: Trent Williams and George Kittle (SF) both compromised/absent.
- Some sharps like the over but Simon and Chad both prefer the under and the 49ers +7/+7.5.
- Historically, Shanahan is excellent as a playoff dog or on the road.
Notable Quote:
- Simon: “If you’re making that bet, you’re banking on me getting at least three touchdowns, maybe even four if you think they’re gonna win this game... So, I’m with you... under.” [24:05]
5. Texans at Patriots [31:47–36:25]
Key Details:
- Line: NE -3; Total: 41 → 40.5
- Brass balls bet of the week: Under 41 [32:40]
- Nico Collins (Texans WR) out, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots CB) in—big impact on both side and total.
- Sharps bullying Simon onto Patriots despite Houston looking like the “easier” side.
- “I do think this will go up to three and a half by kickoff.” – Simon [34:19]
Important Stats:
- Houston’s defense has struggled with mobile QBs.
- Drake May’s ability to “go to his legs” could be a difference-maker late.
Consensus:
- Under is the stronger lean than the side (“I’m much more comfortable with the under than I am with the side.” – Chad [35:52])
- Pros might push this under even lower (possibly down to 39.5).
6. Rams at Bears [36:33–45:05]
Key Details:
- Bears: Home underdog again, rare situation (only 2nd time in NFL history).
- Weather: Negatives, severe cold; QB Stafford will wear a “scuba suit.”
- Stafford finger injury: Could be key if cold worsens pain.
- Bears’ defense struggles against the run (worst in DVOA, missing LB TJ Edwards).
- Pros divided; more sharp money on Rams, but public loads up on Bears.
Stat of the Game:
- Stafford “4–1 vs Bears in <40°F at Soldier Field – favored 8 times <40F, QB rating over 100 in 7 games.” [40:56]
Best bet:
- First half under (was 25.5, now down to 24.5 or even 24). “I’m still liking the first half under the best. Because I do expect... both teams run-heavy script.” – Chad [42:29]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Simon: “It’s a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squashing grapes. How did you skip over Tomlin, Chad?” [02:57]
- Chad: “Mike Tomlin... has made us so much money... pillar of consistency.” [04:36]
- Simon (about line flips): “The one stat that literally scared the shit out of me. ...The teams that become the favorites, like the Broncos, they're 1–4 in this exact scenario.” [14:11]
Betting Recap & Contest Picks [46:12–47:50]
Simon’s biggest bets:
- 49ers +7.5
- Patriots -3
- 1st Half Under Rams/Bears (24.5 or better)
Sharp vs Square head-to-head:
- Simon: Patriots -3
- Chad: Bears/Rams 1st half under 24
Favorite Parlays:
- Dogs: Niners + Bills
- Chalk: Patriots + Rams
Special College Football National Championship Segment [48:08–61:03]
Guest: Joshua “Doc” Nunn (Big Bets on Campus Podcast)
Key takeaways:
- Kurt Signetti’s Indiana one of greatest coaching turnarounds ever.
- “I will happily and proudly go on record and say that this is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics...” – Doc [51:18]
- Home field adjustment (Miami): Only worth 2 points, per Hard Rock Bet sportsbook. Expected neutral feel.
- Doc’s best bets:
- Indiana -8.5 (laid it, not afraid of big number)
- Special teams, red zone D, discipline all “significantly” advantage IU
- Player prop: Charlie Becker (IU WR) over 2.5 receptions
- 1Q prop: First quarter under, with both teams starting conservatively
- Fun parlay: Becker over 2.5 rec, first quarter under, both teams punt on first drive
Important Timestamps
- 02:38: Tomlin firing discussion
- 08:10: Sharp vs square pro betting recap
- 12:07: Bills–Broncos sharp/public, line analysis
- 22:24: Niners–Seahawks matchup, injuries, coaching
- 31:47: Texans–Patriots injuries, brass balls under
- 36:33: Bears–Rams weather/injuries, Stafford cold stats
- 46:12: Best bets recap (Simon/Chad)
- 48:08: Indiana–Miami CFB Championship segment with Joshua Doc Nunn
Tone & Language
- Candid, energetic banter between Chad & Simon, with plenty of inside jokes, light cursing, and playful jabs.
- Analytical, data-driven, but with recognition of variance, randomness, and “voodoo magic” endemic to playoff sports betting.
- Heavy focus on injuries, weather, and market moves.
- Passion for college football comes through in the guest segment.
Summary Table: Key Sides & Totals
| Game | Sharps Lean | Public Lean | Best Bet (Hosts) | Notable Bet/Trend | |-------------------------|-------------|-------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------| | Bills at Broncos | Split | Bills | Under / No strong side | Market flip: caution | | 49ers at Seahawks | 49ers/Under | Mixed | 49ers +7/+7.5, Under | Shanahan trend (as dog) | | Texans at Patriots | Patriots | Texans | Under (brass balls bet) | Nico Collins key absence | | Rams at Bears | Rams | Bears | 1st Half Under | Weather, RB rush game focus |
Useful for New Listeners?
Absolutely. Even without listening, this summary covers the main actionable insights, contest strategies, memorable moments, and why certain sides/totals have value this week from both a sharp and recreational bettor perspective. The guest segment delivers bonus value for interested title game college football bettors, too.