The Herd with Colin Cowherd: "Sharp or Square" – SHARP NFL WEEK 14 BETS

Host: Chad Millman | Co-host: Simon Hunter | Producer: Matt Mitchell

Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts & The Volume
Episode Date: December 5, 2025

Episode Overview

This week's "Sharp or Square" is a deep dive into NFL Week 14 betting, as professional bettor Simon Hunter and respected host Chad Millman break down which sides the pros ("sharps") and the public ("squares") are backing. The episode covers major games of the week, wiseguy and public sentiment, market movement analysis, and contest updates. True to the show's candid, bantering style, Chad and Simon argue, commiserate, and make some tough calls while sharing actionable insights and behind-the-scenes anecdotes from the betting world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Steelers Drama & Mike Tomlin Debate

[06:00–08:40]

• Recent Steelers locker room drama is discussed, particularly Ben Roethlisberger’s suggestion that Tomlin should coach at Penn State.
• Chad and Simon strongly defend Tomlin’s coaching, emphasizing roster limitations and Tomlin’s consistent overachievement.
  • Quote: “Mike Tomlin’s been a brilliant coach for 20 years. I can name 10 teams right now that would kill to have Mike Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong?” – Chad (06:58)

Sharps vs. Squares Rundown: Game-by-Game Market Notes

[09:00–13:30]

• Segment “Sharp Calls” airs betting feedback from professional groups, highlighting where the pros are leaning:
  • Cincinnati Bengals: Tons of pro action at +6, less love now as the line dropped to +5.5.
  • Minnesota Vikings: Surprising heavy pro support, especially if Marcus Mariota (not Jaden Daniels) is confirmed at QB for Washington.
  • Chiefs vs. Texans: Pros split, with early Houston money at +3.5, but some still like KC at -3.
  • Chargers vs. Eagles: Sharps love the dysfunctional Chargers as underdogs; Millman counters that at below FG, it's likely an Eagles line.

Week 14 “Sharper Square” Pick’Em Contest Launch

[12:30–18:00]

• Announcement of the free, dynamic lines Pro Football Pick’em contest at sharpersquare.thevolume.com, running through the Super Bowl.
• Picks must be made before 1pm ET Sundays, with dynamic contest lines moving alongside the market (always ending in 0.5 increments).
• Grand prize: Trip to Seminole Hard Rock Hotel/Casino & tickets to Grizzlies-Heat game.
• Eligibility: U.S.-only (excl. RI & WA), 21+.
  • Quote: “Dynamic lines! All picks must win or lose. There won’t be stale lines. We’re all playing with the same numbers.” – Matt Mitchell (14:03)

Deep Game Breakdowns and Betting Rationales

Washington at Minnesota

[19:52–24:39]

• Market: Minnesota favored; pros love Minnesota if Mariota starts for Washington.
• Simon and Chad lean Washington, questioning how Minnesota moves the ball.
  • Quote: “Are you just thinking it’s going to be a 3-0 game if you’re betting on the Vikings?” – Simon (20:18)
• Uncertainty over QB (Jaden Daniels limited), possibly more value if line rises.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

[27:49–32:48]

• Jaguars a rare home dog. Simon admits past bias against Trevor Lawrence, but professional consensus leans Jacksonville.
  • Quote: “Trust the models, people here…back this Jaguars team.” – Simon (31:55)
• Key injury concerns (Colts QB Daniel Jones, mobility), matchup edges for Jags D-line.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

[33:54–37:38]

• Dolphins laying 3; both Chad & Simon favor Jets +3 but fear their own overconfidence.
  • Quote: “We’ve hit on black seven straight times…we’re hitting on black once again.” – Chad (35:59)
• Weather could be a deciding factor; if “nasty,” Jets move up contest rankings.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans

[38:01–42:33]

• Browns laying -3.5. Heavy pro money has pulled the line down from -5.5.
  • Simon prefers Browns’ elite defense at home vs. rookie Cam Ward.
  • Caution from pros due to low total (33.5), typical incentive to take the dog.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

[42:33–46:05]

• Falcons are heavy dogs; Simon likes Seattle, viewing this as a “get right” game for Sam Darnold and an elite coach.
• Chad hesitates due to possible absence of Drake London and Atlanta’s plummet.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (“Brass Balls Bet of the Week”)

[46:11–51:35]

• Ravens -5.5. Surprising sharp consensus on Steelers, but Simon and Chad fade Tomlin for once, backing a motivated Ravens.
  • “We’ve made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens minus five and a half. … Betting is a risk. We recognize Lamar Jackson is not as healthy as he has been.” – Chad (46:35)
• Public and trends heavily back the underdog (Steelers), but the co-hosts see value in a buy-low spot on Baltimore.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

[51:35–54:49]

• Bills favored (-5.5/6). Sharps took Bengals at +6, pros and public now line up on Cincy as a “covering machine.”
  • Simon likes Buffalo if weather is harsh, but acknowledges nervousness betting against Joe Burrow as an underdog.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

[54:55–58:32]

• Line moved from 6.5 up as public jumps on Bears.
  • Split decision: Chad emotionally drawn to Bears ML (“dreamed about the Bears”), Simon leans Packers but sees why dog is popular.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

[59:35–61:49]

• Rams -7.5. Both are happy to fade the big divisional home dog, noting Rams’ historical dominance against Arizona and Brissett’s tendency for late covers only if allowed to linger.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

[61:49–65:16]

• Chiefs -3 at home; both sides see this as a must-back spot for Mahomes as a short home favorite, despite public and some pro money on Houston.
  • “You have to stab [Mahomes] in the heart 30 times and cut his head off before he’s dead.” – Chad (64:58)

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

[65:22–67:27]

• Pros and public pile on injured Chargers, but Chad remains mystified the Eagles are not getting respect at just -2.5.
  • “It just feels way too easy getting Eagles -2.5 against a one-handed Herbert without his left and right tackle.” – Chad (66:55)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Simon on Tomlin critics:
  “To think a man like that...for 20 years, you would die to bring in a Mike Tomlin type to get the organization right.” (07:23)

• Chad on squares vs. sharps:
  “For the most part it's all the chalk. Like every week. The pros just love the dogs.” (11:27)

• Chad on public overconfidence:
  “When we tend to love a game [early], lock in early...that always ends up being a game that we’re out of it in the first quarter.” (37:45)

• Simon on betting against Mahomes:
  “This is a bridge too far. I can’t walk away. I can’t be the one who’s betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever.” (62:14)

Segment Timestamps

• Steelers/Tomlin Debate: [06:00–08:40]
• Sharp Calls (Pro opinions): [09:00–13:30]
• Sharp or Square Pick’Em Contest Details: [12:30–18:00]
• Washington–Minnesota (Injury analysis): [19:52–24:39]
• Jaguars–Colts Biases & Market: [27:49–32:48]
• Jets–Dolphins Weather & Line Movement: [33:54–37:38]
• Browns–Titans Defense Edge: [38:01–42:33]
• Falcons–Seahawks Split: [42:33–46:05]
• Ravens–Steelers (Brass Balls Bet): [46:11–51:35]
• Bengals–Bills (Burrow dog narrative): [51:35–54:49]
• Bears–Packers Fan Perspective: [54:55–58:32]
• Rams–Cardinals (Fade the home dog): [59:35–61:49]
• Texans–Chiefs (Mahomes Spot): [61:49–65:16]
• Eagles–Chargers (Pro fade explained): [65:22–67:27]
• Best Bets / Parlay Construction: [72:39–75:35]
• Sharp vs. Square Final Picks: [75:11–76:19]

Best Bets and Parlay Review

Simon’s Big Bets (Favorites):

• Cleveland Browns -3
• Baltimore Ravens -5.5
• Kansas City Chiefs -3

Dog Moneyline Parlay (Simon & Chad):

• Jaguars
• Jets
• Washington

Favorite Parlay Includes:

• Rams (down to -5.5)
• Seahawks (down to -5.5)
• Chiefs moneyline
• Ravens moneyline
• Buffalo or Denver (flex spot)

Brass Balls Bet:

• Baltimore Ravens -5.5

Chad’s Choice:

• New York Jets +3

Simon Says Play:

• Washington Commanders (+2.5 if available)

Rock and a Hard Place Pick:

• Jaguars

Tone, Energy & Humor

The episode is lively and candid, loaded with inside jokes (“Chad and Simon BFFs”), heartfelt encouragement for fans to compete in the pick’em contest, and frequent self-deprecation about past biases and bets gone awry. Chad and Simon’s banter bounces between stats, strategy, and gut feel, always rooting opinions in market context and sharp/public discrepancies.

Summary for the Uninitiated

This episode is a week 14 betting roadmap: actionable insights, sharp/public angles, and real-life lessons about balancing data with instinct. Whether you’re prepping a contest entry, crafting a parlay, betting your own money, or just seeking to understand the psychology of lines and market moves, this dynamic exchange between a pro bettor and a sharp host delivers a nuanced, relatable, and entertaining preview of the NFL betting week.

Memorable Closer:

"Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you... This is the NFL, which stands for Not For Long when you make them calls." – Chad & Simon (76:59)

Listen on: YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify
Compete & see picks: sharpersquare.thevolume.com