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Chad Millman (2:29)

And Doug Here.

Doug Limu (2:30)

We have the Limu IMU in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug Limu.

Simon Hunter (2:46)

Is that guy with the binoculars watching us?

Doug Limu (2:48)

Cut the camera. They see us.

Bowen Yang (2:49)

Only pay for what you need@liberty mutual.com Liberty Liberty.

Simon Hunter (2:53)

Liberty.

Chad Millman (2:53)

Liberty Savings.

Bowen Yang (2:55)

Very underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts.

Simon Hunter (2:58)

Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad Millman (3:21)

Chad. How goes it, brother?

Simon Hunter (3:23)

We're gonna give more details about the contest in a minute. People have been signing up, which is great. I don't know if you know this, but you and I signed up and people will be able to compete against us. And in the contest for which I will give more details on how to sign up in a minute. Our team name. Simon. Are you ready to hear what our team name is? Chad and Simon BFFs. Chad and Simon BFFs. That's how you're going to find us in the contest. Hello, Simon.

Simon Hunter (3:57)

I think I forgot to say it, didn't I?

Chad Millman (3:59)

No, you said it, but I like it. You're just fired up.

Simon Hunter (4:01)

I completely forgot. I don't even remember. Listen, I can just imagine trying to.

Chad Millman (4:06)

Walk around his house yelling hello, Simon.

Simon Hunter (4:08)

I do. Well, I yell like in a. In accents all the time. And like over the holidays we had like two hours where there wasn't simmering tension between various stepmoms and mother in laws. And that was when like me, my wife, our two boys, my dad, his wife and my mother in law, we gathered around the fireplace which I had built the fire and it was glorious. And we were playing different games. And one of the games required you to say certain words or guess what an accent is. And at one point like there was a English accent and a Scottish accent. And it was my moment to shine because I have been doing bad English and Scottish accents around my house, I think since the day my kids were born. And it was so exciting because they got it immediately. It was the only time I could really contribute to the game.

Chad Millman (5:08)

I always joke my. My biggest negative when I go to England is I can't stop doing people's accents back to them. And it's like kind of like what you're doing. It's like I'm not even trying to be disrespectful. I like, I have, like a parrot syndrome. But I hear something, I just repeat it back. And the big one is my uncle has a dog named Nelly. And anytime Nelly does anything goes no Nelly. And I swear, for about no Nelly two weeks, all I said, anything anyone asked me anything go no Nelly, no Simon.

Simon Hunter (5:33)

I love it. I love it. All right, this is our week 14 episode. We're going to narrow down the options to get to our final five. It's going to be harder than we think. In our pregame and our pre show convo, it felt like we were split on some games. Subscribe Watch on YouTube at sharpersquare, Apple Pods, Spotify. Listen, Simon, we're going to get into the Steelers in the Ravens game. But the big news this week, like, there is just crazy, crazy drama that we have not seen in the Steelers locker room or with the Steelers generally since Mike Tomlin has been coach. Like, they signed Adam Thielen, so clearly all their downfield passing issues are just going to go away. I kid, but the bigger news, Ben Roethlisberger on his podcast said, I love Mike Tomlin, but. And everyone knows anything you say before but is a lie. I love Mike Tomlin, but maybe he should go coach Penn State. Come on. Because, Simon, I don't get this. A Mike Tomlin's not building that roster. He's not the one who signed T.J. watt to a massive $40 million guaranteed deal for next year. He's not the one who signed Jalen. Rams trade it away. Make a Fitzpatrick. He's not the one who gave Cam Hayward a new deal after he sat out during training. Gap. He's not the one who signed Aaron Rodgers. Like, he's not the one who traded for DK Metcalf. I know he's involved in all these conversations, but there's a lot of blame to go around. This roster is not good enough. And we're going to get into that. But, dude, Mike Tomlin's been a Brilliant coach for 20 years. I can name 10 teams right now that would kill to have Mike Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong? Am I wrong that, like, Mike Tomlin is not really the problem here?

Chad Millman (7:23)

No. And Big Ben is part of the problem of all these ex athletes having podcasts. And I get it. Everyone wants to share their opinions and stuff like that, but that just sounds like a bitter old man. Ben Roethlisberger, that's just. I don't know why he's holding grudges against Tomlin, but to think a man like that, a Caliber of coaching who's taken a joke of a team these last couple years to the playoffs every year and, you know, think that man might go to Penn State. Like you just said, if you're, if you're the Raiders, like all these different organizations, that just for 20 years, you would die to bring in a Mike Tomlin type to get this, get the organization right. So very, very bizarre of Roethlisberger saying, I think it's another thing of an athlete maybe having stuff we don't know about, maybe behind closed doors that he's holding grudges against Tomlin because rationally doesn't make any sense.

Simon Hunter (8:10)

Like, no sense.

Chad Millman (8:11)

Yeah, Makes zero sense. So, yeah, I think Tomlin laughed at it basically, when they asked him about it, just being like, I gotta hear. I gotta talk about this stupid again. Because feels like every year they're asking if he'd ever go to college, and it's like, dude, the disrespect to that man, to ask him that question is ridiculous.

Simon Hunter (8:25)

Raiders, Titans, Giants, I mean, the list goes on.

Chad Millman (8:30)

I'm a psychopath Eagles fan. Like, I love Sirianni. I, I would, I would take. Honestly, I mean, not I, I. But what are we doing here? I, I. Tomlin's a Hall of Famer.

Simon Hunter (8:41)

All right, let's get into this thing. Every week, we give it our peaks. Every week, Simon's fellow professional betters call to yell at him about those picks. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's time for chef calls.

Chad Millman (8:55)

I have to answer this phone.

Bowen Yang (8:58)

All right.

Snapdragon Announcer (9:00)

Rain.

Chad Millman (9:01)

Rain, telephone.

Matt Mitchell (9:02)

Rain.

Snapdragon Announcer (9:02)

Somebody said.

Chad Millman (9:07)

Yeah, I'll start where I got killed, which I knew was coming. I was on. I'm on a lot of chalk. I would say. Shocking to no one, pros, they really like Cincinnati. But like I said, I did believe they liked him at the six. And I haven't heard too much love for them at the five and a half, which is where that number is. But tons of calls about Cincinnati and how that's going to be the right side. Tons of love for Pittsburgh, tons of love for, you know, not shockingly, this Atlanta team that is in a unique spot, a game I didn't really, you know, talk too much about. And, you know, a ton of love for Dallas, which we talk a little bit about. But the biggest one I got wrong, obviously, is this Minnesota game. I got a ton of calls about pros who love Minnesota. They don't think Daniels is playing. They love this matchup defensively for Minnesota against Mariota, coming on the road, if it is going to be him. And yeah, that's, that's a game I just simply got wrong. I, I'm still on Washington. I still like them as a dog, especially the fact that it's up two and a half at a lot of books right now. But I was shocked to hear so many pros are coming in on this Minnesota side and they just love jj. I don't get it. I, I will never get it. They love the coming of the year. They kind of haven't budged on it. And you've seen it this week, the way that numbers move. So those are the games that kind of gotten wrong, the ones they loved. Our picks on Love the Saints plus eight and a half. Love this jets team that we've talked about. Loved our love for this Cleveland team. You know, Chicago. I talked to a couple of really smart groups that are on it. I still think that's a Green Bay line. When it's under seven. I still think that's a Green Bay line. So that'd be a fun one to discuss. We want to get into it. Tons of love for Atlanta. I already talked a little about that one. Arizona, you know, not a shocker. It was such a big number. I knew the pros would be on that one. And that Chiefs game is kind of a flip flop. I've heard groups on both sides of it. So there's not really one side that they love. Right. If you can get the three in the Chiefs, I know some really smart groups have come in on and same with a three and a half there. Tons of professional groups that took early positions on that Houston side and the last one. Pains from Pains for me to hear. The pros absolutely love this Chargers team against the Eagles. They love the matchup for them and what we've talked about, there's all the dysfunction, all the noise around this Eagles team. I think they view it as another spot to keep riding, you know, the fade of this Eagles team. But like I said, I think if it's two and a half, that's an Eagles line. So that's gonna be a fun where I, I'm. I got. I have a couple games I going against the pros. For the most part it's all the chalk. Like I'm just on chalk this weekend. Like every week. The pros just love the dogs.

Simon Hunter (11:29)

Simon, you'll always be my pro.

Chad Millman (11:31)

Thanks, buddy.

Simon Hunter (11:32)

You know why?

Chad Millman (11:33)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (11:34)

Chad and Simon BFFs. Which reminds me, the free Sharp or square pro football pick them contest is officially live and ready for your picks atSharp or square.thevolume.com Go sign up. I already did. I got me and my buddy Simon in there. We'll bring back producer Matt Mitchell to share all the details. But one small note, there's no tiebreaker just for this week. Tiebreaker questions will start next week. If you can't find it, we've been getting some questions about that. That is why no tiebreaker this week. It is a balmy five degrees in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milliwauke Perfect contest weather. Here's producer Matt Mitchell with all the info. All right, Matt Mitchell, people can go sign up. Can you please tell everybody how they can do that?

Matt Mitchell (12:34)

Yes. Very excited that the contest is officially live. You can just go to sharp or square.the volume.com to sign up for this totally free contest and you can make your Week 14 picks right away. It'll be the same website and your same login throughout the entire contest.

Simon Hunter (12:55)

How long will this totally free contest run?

Matt Mitchell (12:58)

Okay, so it starts this week, which is week 14 and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday. So that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry up and sign up because registration for this free Contest closes at 1pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December 7th.

Simon Hunter (13:18)

Matt, tell everyone how the contest works.

Matt Mitchell (13:21)

It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question. And again, tiebreakers start next week. No tiebreaker this week. And once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a player proper to just to beef it up. But for right now it's just five games against the spread and during the regular season. Deadline to submit your picks will be 1pm Eastern on Sundays and you can always see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard function, which is also at sharp or square.the volume.com the.

Simon Hunter (14:03)

Most important question Matt, as we have been getting comments on this all year long, will these lines that we are all playing together against each other in good fun, will these lines move?

Matt Mitchell (14:21)

Yes, the lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons. So they'll move with the market throughout the week. But be advised, these are still contest lines so they'll always end in half points to avoid ties. All picks must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will move.

Simon Hunter (14:44)

Dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going to win? What is the grand prize?

Matt Mitchell (14:51)

Okay, so grand prize, the contest winner and a guest will be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida where they will enjoy a complimentary two night stay at the beautiful Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino along with tickets to The Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat game on February 21st.

Simon Hunter (15:12)

Very important. Can people change their picks during the week?

Matt Mitchell (15:18)

Yes. If you want to make any changes to your picks, you just need to cancel your entry and make all five picks again. @ the bottom of your finished entry, there's a little button that says cancel and play again. You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your picks again at the current contest lines. Easy.

Simon Hunter (15:36)

Peasy. Is there a.

Matt Mitchell (15:38)

Tiebreaker? Yes. So this contest is only nine weeks long, so the tiebreaker is going to be really important as it has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the event of a tie at the end of this contest, the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So when you submit your picks, do not forget to put in your tiebreaker.

Simon Hunter (16:02)

Answer. Matt Will all of the games be included as available contest.

Matt Mitchell (16:10)

Picks? So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest? We never have, probably because those games are an abomination. But generally speaking, all other games.

Simon Hunter (16:20)

Will be available to choose who can play in this.

Matt Mitchell (16:23)

Contest. Matt okay, you just need to be 21 years or older as of today and located in the United States. So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners. The only US States that are excluded are Rhode island and Washington.

Simon Hunter (16:40)

State. Tell me why they have tricky.

Matt Mitchell (16:43)

Rules about free to play games. So like if you live in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I don't ask me, I have no idea. But I wish you the best of luck.

Simon Hunter (16:53)

Anyway. All right, well listen, thank you Matt for the FAQs, thank you for all the work getting the contest ready to roll. Thank you to our sponsors at Hard Rock Bet for working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so we could bring this to you guys. Better late than never. Go sign up for for the contest. It is open and ready to roll right now. All the picks that we're talking about on Sunday will be based on these contest lines. So there'll be no questions about where you get in that line. Why are you betting stale lines? Like every line we're betting is going to be the same lines that everybody else is.

Chad Millman (17:28)

Seeing. And the 95% of you that listen on the podcast, which, you know, most of our fans do listen via podcast, we put it on socials too. If you're confused by anything, hop on. There Matt Mitchell's happy to help you as well if you would just want to DM them or add them or anything like that. You know, we, we know it's very late in the season and it's a quick turnaround here, but really appreciate all the people that signed up so early. And like we keep saying, it's type of thing where the more of you that sign up, the cooler stuff we will be able to do in the future. So we love the support we're getting from all the fans and come prove you're better than me and Chad. Let's see it.

Simon Hunter (18:00)

People. I love when you, when you.

Simon Hunter (18:06)

When you give appreciation to the fans. I think it's fantastic. Shows your true spirit. It shows that you really, really are a good person deep.

Chad Millman (18:14)

Down. Well, I used to hate them. I'll be the first to. I used to hate the fans. But then we did a bunch of live shows and you quickly realize you're only hearing 10% of the assholes online. The 90% of these people are awesome, cool people that just want to, you know, learn, get better at betting football and love football. So I've grown to really appreciate our fan base and how cool so many of them.

Simon Hunter (18:32)

Are. I love that about you. All right, listen, you can find our producer Matt Mitchell to yell at. Go to Harporsquare underscore. The little underscore at the end of it is key. Harpersquare, underscore. Let's get into it. Simon, you mentioned Dallas. Let's talk about Dallas and Detroit for a second. Detroit is a three point favorite. We're not going to spend too much time on it. We can't put it in the contest because Thursday games aren't eligible. But it's a really interesting game. I don't think I'm going to bet it. Like, I think I'm just going to sit it out. I think it's, it's got to be. I think it's lined perfectly right. Like, it feels so public to bet the Cowboys. I'm not getting the hook. It's not going to two and a half. The Lions, I think, have real issues either. Reverse biases coming into play for me, maybe.

Simon Hunter (19:22)

But I don't like the.

Chad Millman (19:23)

Number. Totally fair. I'm going to touch the stove. I'm going to bet the lines. I can't help it. I just. Chad just nailed it. I'm clearly stuck in the past, but I am just so scared off about how much public love this Cowboys team. And like you just said, the number has not budged. Off the three. Despite we've had a day and a half now of not just professional money, public money as well, hammering this Cowboys side. So I'll bet with the books. I'll take the lines. But yeah, very, very low confidence in this bet. I just. This lies team just seems totally.

Simon Hunter (19:52)

Lost. Yeah. Washington plus one and a half at Minnesota at Hard Rock Bet. Washington plus one and a half was the Simon says bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. I think we made that when you thought Jaden Daniels might be playing. It's looking more and more like Marcus Mariota is going to be the quarterback. And this line has now moved to two. You said there's two and a halfs out there.

Simon Hunter (20:18)

I think in this bet. I'm with you. I don't see what the love is for The Vikings if JJ McCarthy is your quarterback because he is just so ineffective he has not been able to move the ball in any capacity. So are you just thinking that it's going to be a 3 nothing game like if you're betting on the Vikings? Like what are you looking at here to make you feel good about betting on this Vikings team? I know it sounds stupid.

Simon Hunter (20:48)

Marcus Mariota is now sort of has enough pass attempts to be eligible for all the rankings. He's a mediocre, serviceable mid level quarterback who has been in the pantheon of backup quarterbacks recently and certainly this year one of the better ones. And so I'm with you. I favor Washington here. Everyone is banking on the fact that Brian Flores is going to be able to confuse Marcus Mariota to a degree. He's going to turn this game over. That's got to be what it is.

Chad Millman (21:24)

Right? Yeah. Yeah. And I've had just a lot of guys who are really heavy on this Minnesota Tide just said you need to kind of go back and really dive into how bad this team has been for the commanders. Right. With everything that's going on behind the scenes. And that's fair. Like their last couple games, even though it was a jugging out of a schedule, they went to Kansas City, they got blown out 7 to 28, then they played a Seahawks team at home, got blown out 38, 14, then played Detroit at home, lost 44 to 22. So that's fair. Right. And then they've kind of played well these last two weeks where, you know, Miami, I think that was in Madrid, they lost 16 to 13. They feel like they could have won and covered that game a million different ways. Right. I remember the kicker. I didn't miss kick it was just a total train wreck. And then that Denver game, another game where it felt like they could have covered and won it outright in a bunch of different ways. They lose by one. They obviously got the COVID but that was the first time they had covered in about four or five weeks. So I get what they're saying, right? That this, this Washington team is just bad, right? Defensively and you really dive into it. As bad as JJ is, you would think wide receivers, but I'll take advantage of a really bad secondary. Like Chad just said it, you're banking a lot on JJ McCarthy and make these completions. And you know, Justin Jefferson hasn't been blowing up in the media, but you can see him on the field, his body language, everything he's doing, he's just so over it, sick of this whole experience. So I, I really am just playing the number here. Like Chad just said, there's two and a half's out there, a couple of very public books. I'm gonna have to take that number. Even if it is Mariota. I still feel like this game should be closer to a pick than it is at minus two and a half for this Minnesota side. So not shocking. The pros love this Minnesota team so much. I'm just shocked. The numbers move so much where we don't even know who the quarterback is going to be, where Daniels is practicing, it's just limited. And that's why the number has moved in my opinion. Because like Chad said, you know, I talked a little bit on Tuesday, people I've talked to behind the scenes in Washington, they don't want him to play, right? They're, they just want the kid to take a full time heel, come back next year when it matters. But he's such a competitor. He's pushing the play because he, he wants to. Right. He's not a guy that when he's healthy, wants to set out. So I, I'm really interesting how it plays out because right now it's organization versus the quarterback and we'll see what side the head coach picks. But I think this head coach, like we've talked about these different coaches, you see the way they coach at the end of these games where they want to be next year. It feels like Dan Quinn, he's happy to follow the organization's lead here and maybe set his quarterback. So be patient here. Like I, I gave it out. Simon says, obviously I was wrong. The number could keep moving up. If it is the two and a half at your book, you can get it right now. I would grab but at one and a half I'd be patient. See if you can get a better number.

Simon Hunter (23:55)

Too. Jaden Daniels said. I don't rehab to sit so we know he wants to get on the field so it's going to be an interesting sort of tug and pull there. If he doesn't play this week, you know, are they going to let him come back and play week 15, week 16, week 17 like as the season gets closer to the end, what's really the point if this team is.

Chad Millman (24:16)

Completely out of the playoffs so they play the Eagles twice. So it's like does he want to come back and play? Spoiler against a divisional Poe. I could see it maybe if he was a 10 year vet. It's his second year, does he really have that much against the Eagles? And he's like, no, I need to come back for these last two weeks to play. I just don't see it. So I'm with you. It's it's a really fun situation where the competitor in him wants to play. But the organization's smart. They're trying to protect them long.

Simon Hunter (24:39)

Term. They're thinking they've been through this with.

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Chad Millman (25:09)

PayPal. Learn more@paypal.com hey Jason Tim fear the NBA prime is back tomorrow with another great doubleheader. It starts with a legendary rivalry as Luca and the Lakers face Jaylen Brown in the Celtics. Then Cooper Flag and the Mavericks meet SGA in the Thunder. If you're not a Prime member, just sign up for a 30 day free trial. Lakers Celtics, Mavs Thunder coverage starts at 6:30pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.comamazonprime for.

Matt Rogers (25:37)

Details. This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen.

Bowen Yang (25:41)

Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen.

Matt Rogers (25:44)

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Simon Hunter (25:50)

Me?

Bowen Yang (25:51)

Exactly. Exactly.

Matt Rogers (25:52)

Honey. I'm.

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Easy. But you're.

Matt Rogers (25:54)

Right. Holiday gifting is stressful and all.

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The gift guides out there are boring and.

Matt Rogers (25:57)

Uninspired. Wait, what about the guide we.

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Bowen Yang (26:09)

List. Yeah. Cause if I see one more for the dad who likes golf list, I'm.

Matt Mitchell (26:13)

Out.

Matt Rogers (26:13)

Right? How about something for the people.

Bowen Yang (26:16)

Who actually surprise you with categories like Best gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a.

Chad Millman (26:21)

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Psst. She wants a PA Stilettos Or Best gifts for me that were so.

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Thoughtful I really shouldn't have dying to see what those.

Matt Rogers (26:28)

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Bowen Yang (26:30)

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Bowen Yang (26:37)

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Matt Rogers (26:40)

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Marshalls. Limu Gameu and Doug Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat helping people their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally.

Chad Millman (27:03)

Doug. Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching.

Doug Limu (27:07)

Us. Cut the camera. They see.

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Simon Hunter (27:49)

Factors. Indianapolis at Jacksonville Jacksonville It's a one and a half point underdog at home. I'm gonna tell you this one lit up our comments in YouTube on Tuesday. After the show I went in and answered some questions about it. People felt that I had a bias against the Jags and I do. I do have a bias against the.

Chad Millman (28:12)

Jets. I think I do too. So.

Simon Hunter (28:14)

That'S. We both do. Like I don't think Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback like that. That's a bias because it's true. Because he hasn't performed at the level at which he is paid, at which he was drafted, at which the expectations are for him. Like that's just a fact. So the reason this team has been playing well and is in contention is because of Liam Cohn, who, by the way, maybe he should be coach of the year for dragging this team to 8 and 4 in the middle of December. Right. But the truth is, I do have a bias against Trevor Lawrence. And yet in the show on Tuesday, when I said I feel like I want to bet the Colts, I still listed all the reasons in which I'm afraid of betting the Colts. And by the end of the show, by the end of that segment, you had completely turned me around. And this line did get to plus two for a second, and now it's been bet back down to one and a half. This is like clearly the line of demarcation for the wise guys is too. I feel like you and I have probably come around and are going to be betting the Jags because I'm, I'm, I'm worried about Daniel Jones. That's, to me the.

Chad Millman (29:27)

Issue. Worry about Daniel Jones. And like we talked about the secondary of this Colts team, there, there are some major questions about them when you, you can exploit them like the Jags should be able to. This feels like a great matchup for them. So really fun game to dive more into this past couple days and just hearing the pulse of what the pros were going to do with the one, I, I kind of knew they'd be on the Jaguars, but I was just interested because this number, like Chad said, there's a couple twos that have touched. So it's like, okay, is there professional money coming in on the Colts or is there something I'm missing here? And, you know, I've heard maybe one or two groups have come into the Colts, but just the majority of guys I've talked to kind of the same entires here. This is a Jags line, a Jag spot. And this Colts team, it feels like we've talked about a couple of these games. We feel like we're holding biases from earlier in the year. In this type of game where we, we know the Colts, when they're going, right, they are the better.

Matt Mitchell (30:17)

Team.

Chad Millman (30:17)

Right. There's no doubt about it. When everything's clicking offensively, I think we both agree we would have trust Daniel Jones much more than we trust Trevor Lawrence. And many aspects, especially this season, where, you know, Daniel Jones, if you go back and look, he was so great against the blitz when he was fully healthy and mobile again, he wasn't ruining the ball that much. Just his pocket presence was incredible during the year. You've seen these last three, four weeks, whatever the injury is, maybe he's pushing off it's so painful, whatever it is, it's in his own head. He's just been taking sacks. Usually when he's been reading the hot route and making the first read and having, you know, good throws and tough pockets, he's not been that same way. And defensively, we've seen this, this Jaguars team, yes, they do have weaknesses, obviously, and their linebackers in their secondary, but that D line, which they've drafted so well these last couple years, it's a strength. They have guys that can pressure quarterbacks here. So, you know, matchup wise, I really like this Jaguars team and we talked a little bit about it. This, this number should be closer to a pick. Our general public, like my model, has it a minus three for the Jaguars, which I still think is insane. I can't believe it loves the Jaguars that much. So really unique spot here back in this Jaguars team that, you know, they're kind of left for dead by the public even though they've been winning and covering these last couple of weeks. So I think people are just like us where it's hard not to have your biases of Trevor Lawrence. He just does such egregious stuff every week. It's hard. Not that the linger in the back of your mind, but trust the models. People here, trust the professionals back, back this Jaguars team. And yeah, I'm glad I, I wasn't all in once again on the Colts on Tuesday because Sunday night me and Chad both said, yeah, we thought that was a good Colts number. And yeah, I quickly realized the error in my ways. And yeah, this Jaguars number, I could just see it dipping. Like you said, it's gone up to two a couple books. The more pros I talked to, seems like more money is going to come to this Jaguar side and this could easily flip come game time. So definitely grab the Jags if you.

Simon Hunter (32:06)

Can. Right now, Daniel Jones said the leg really isn't an issue unless he has to move laterally, which is like 50% of the moves, right. Like you gotta move right to left and forwards and backwards. So that is a little bit of a scary prospect to be betting on a guy who's struggling to move when he's going to get some pressure. And also the Colts like their defensive line has some injuries and that's impactful against a running game. And, you know, I think both coaches are really good. I think there's no real advantage there. I think Liam Cohen is doing a remarkable job with subpar talent at the quarterback.

Chad Millman (32:48)

Position. Yeah, he also had the most Duke conversation ever where he said his buddies who he went to college with have invented this like fake prosthetic party puts on his pads that protects the injured area. And it made me think of, I have a, an aunt that lives down in Durham, North Carolina. And I was probably, probably 22. I, I just really dove into becoming a professional better. I'm flying down to go visit her and I'm sitting next to a kid same age as me, 22, 23. Flying back to, to college where he goes to Duke and he does heart research. I go, that's pretty cool. Again, we're on a totally different path here. Like I'm a professional better. I go, so what do you guys do? He goes, he pulled out this box and he goes, well, I built an artificial heart and it got approved to be put into process. This is like in whatever say like 2012, 2011. And I always think back to this guy is building these fake hearts and artificial hearts at 22, 23. And I was over here like talking about being a professional better. Totally brought me back down and humbled me at that time. I really needed it. So I always think back on the different paths of life and you know, you never know. Like this kid, he's. He's someone that built artificial hearts and extra professional better. We were both just young kids talking about TV shows and.

Simon Hunter (33:54)

Movies. All right, that said, we're going to be on the Jacks because I don't think anyone's thinking about a way to fix Daniel Jones broken fibula between now and then. Miami at the New York Jets. The line at Hard Rock is two and a half. Everywhere else it's three. So I would recommend getting the three. I made this Chad's choice when it was the jets two and a half on Tuesday and that seemed to be the only 24 hour window where this wasn't three because it was a three Sunday into Monday. It's been three since Wednesday morning. I bet it at three. I bet it again at three.

Simon Hunter (34:28)

So I'm. The Dolphins are getting all the bets on this one. They're the public side for sure. You mentioned yourself called the jets are the wise guy side. What I don't get is why hasn't it come back down to two and a half when I know the professional money is coming in on the jets in this.

Chad Millman (34:44)

Game.

Chad Millman (34:46)

Yeah, honestly I, I think this has to do with what we talked a little bit about where it's. This game had a lot dictated on the weather and you saw earlier in the week there's supposed to be a Huge snowstorm coming through for this game. Now they're saying it's going to blow out, it's going to be sunny. So basically it'll be 31, 32 degrees for kickoff. And sunny is what they're predicting right now. Which if you're in Miami and tua, that's as good as it's going to get, right? If you're coming to the Northeast in December, you knew it's going to be cold. But if you're not getting any type of horrible wind in MetLife, you're not getting rain or any bad elements like that, two should be all right, right? The times we've seen him struggle, you know, that was when he was in Buffalo or Kansas City and it was like wind chill of 3 degrees outside and it was just mind numbing. It might not be that bad for him in this spot, but we've seen it. Times come. This jets team, they keep being underrated by the public. Tyrone Taylor, we've talked about it. You know, his last eight starts, he's 71 against the.

Simon Hunter (35:38)

Spread. So it's super bowl champion, Pro.

Chad Millman (35:41)

Bowler. Nothing. Nothing new for him, though. It's just being underrated by the public just seems like that's going to be what's going to be for Tyrod Taylor. Right? They will keep underrating him. So my only issue with here, Chad, is we both love this one so much. This tends to be the games that exactly burn us.

Simon Hunter (35:56)

Right? I know, I know, I know. I agree. I totally.

Chad Millman (35:59)

Agree. We're definitely going to revisit Sunday for a contest. I, I have like a feeling like I'm getting in a little bit of my gut alarm bells here that we've already hit on black seven straight times. A roulette wheel and we're hitting. We're hitting on black once again. So I, I don't know what to do here where it's like, I think it's the right read, but we are taking a little bit of a risk here that the market might have caught up to Taylor at this point. Because to me, this number feels right. Like my model has it right at this. So my model has it too. You know, I think we're getting a good number on the jets at two and a half, especially at three. But I get why there's just not a ton of love from most professionals I've talked to where they're playing the jets, but it's not like they're like, no, you have to bet this, this is the exact spot you want to back this Jets Team, I feel like they have the same mentality as I do is like, man, we got away with one last week. Really got to go back to this. Well, hammer this one. But we just, we love, both of us love this matchup. It's just this Miami's defense is so bad, Taylor's gonna be able to move the ball against them. Can they get stops against TUA after, you know, last week two had a terrible game. Historically, when you dive into his trends, he tends to bounce back after really bad games. Every time he, him and McDaniels, it's just that combo, you know, any game he goes without throwing a touch on the thawing game, he averages 2.3 touchdowns per game. So it's just again, lazy stat, but just shows he tends to bounce back after struggling the game before. So just to be something wary of. But this is another game that if we wake up Sunday, Chad, and it is 25 degrees, a little bit of rain, kind of kind of windy out, I, I will have to put this one. If there's any type of winter elements in this game, but if it's a perfect sunny day, maybe I'll be able to talk because I didn't lie to myself being like, nah, don't, don't, don't go too hard here on this jets team. But I love the Plus 3 and you do as well. So it's gonna be hard to avoid.

Simon Hunter (37:38)

It. Yeah. And I, I agree with you. We, I feel like, and it's totally anecdotal, like when we tend to love a game, lock in a game early in the week, I feel like we, we don't even hesitate to put it into our final five and it always ends up being a game that, that we're out of it in the first.

Chad Millman (37:59)

Quarter. Yeah, we've had the blinders on a couple times like.

Simon Hunter (38:01)

That. Yeah, that's true. Well, let's see if we have the blinders on for the Cleveland Browns at minus three and a half, hosting the Tennessee Titans. Huge swings back and forth on this one in a small range like 4 and a half to 4 to 3 and a half to 3 and a half to 4 to 4 and a half, back and forth, back and forth. Look, I dismissed all the noise about Cam Ward's improvements a couple of weeks ago in the show, but if you do look at his numbers, passer rating, lack of interceptions, completion percentage, they are all much, much better since Brian Callahan was fired in week six. And this has been outside of last week, a more competitive team. Right. They twice beat down the back door to cover a big number against the Chargers to cover a big number against Seattle. But they haven't played Miles Garrett in Cleveland yet. And so when I'm looking at this game, I'm looking at not Shador Sanders as more than a field goal favorite. I'm looking at Cam Ward having to compete against Miles Garrett.

Chad Millman (39:08)

Yeah. And it's interesting talking to why different pros love this Tennessee team so much. Right. They've come in very heavy on him like this. This number did open a lot of books at five and a half, four and a half. And like Chad said, a lot of books quickly move to three and a half. So that's some serious money pushing at a whole point. And I, I couldn't understand why. So I wanted to figure out what people are seeing that I'm missing. And it is a little bit of the Can Ward love. Right. That you just talked about. But it's also they can't believe that Shador Sanders would be this big of a favorite, which I think is a totally fair criticism of him and that team. But like I talked on Tuesday, I don't think this is Shador Sanders line. I truly think this is a defensive line. This is a line that when the bookmakers posted, it's what I'm looking at my motto which is like okay, say the offense is a total zero. In your opinion at least the Browns have a good run game. Like we've seen it through multiple weeks here that they can run the ball pretty consistently. It's just the issue for us, which I think most guys have betting the surrounds team is if it's third and seven, third and eight. You definitely have more confidence in Ward I guess completing that than you do Sanders. Right. But like I've talked about, I think it's just an overreacting. Overreaction to just past week where you go and look at that Raiders game. He was moving pretty well in the pocket, fighting open lanes and I think he only had 11 completions. But still they were big time completions. Right. And that's what you're looking for for Sanders and a young quarterback where Cam Ward we've talked about, he's so erratic that yeah, the numbers have been better but we talked about a lot of those numbers is late game, you know, passing yards and touchdowns. Like those are fourth quarter stats. Most defense are playing prevent. Could we get burned by the Browns prevent defense? Sure. But we've seen it this year. This Browns team doesn't usually go into that mode like they always play as if they're very desperate. So it just feels like a reaction like the pros have really bet this one and you look at the money splits. You know, the tickets of most books are pretty heavy on the Brown side, but the money is very, very much skewed to this Tennessee side. So I, I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the jets when we're, I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the lines move too much. Like I don't think the jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like a too much overreaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe you'll help us talk us out if it come Sunday chat. But as you said here right now the Browns are quickly becoming one of my bigger bets. I've taken a pretty large position on the minus 3 now, but I just think it's a unique spot with this Browns defense. Jim Schwartz at home against a rookie on the road in the elements. I, I gotta take the Browns.

Simon Hunter (41:37)

Here. Yeah, I'm having a hard time walking away from.

Chad Millman (41:40)

It. Totals 33 and a half. I shouldn't mention that too. So that's another reason pros like the, like the dog here. It's just a total that low with that, that few points. Most pros will just blindly take the dog in that.

Simon Hunter (41:52)

Position. Yeah, it's a, it's a really, it's a really low number. I'm having a hard time walking away from the Browns and it's entirely because we've had a lot of success betting the Browns as the better defense at home against much, much better teams and better quarterbacks. And then, then what? We're getting in the Titans and so, and with, by the way, worse quarterbacks than Shador Sanders. Yeah.

Chad Millman (42:18)

Right. So, and whether it matter here, like looking at it early again, it's, it's three, four days out, but it's supposed to be flurries of snow, really strong wind and probably in the mid-30s. So this could be another game where the elements play a factor into.

Simon Hunter (42:33)

It. All right. Seattle at Atlanta. Atlanta's a seven point dog right now. We talked a little bit about it on Tuesday. I, I, you and I are split on this.

Chad Millman (42:41)

Game. Yeah, you're looking.

Simon Hunter (42:42)

At. I like the Falcons here and I know it sounds gross to say it, but they keep losing close games. Sam Darnold has not been as good as he was when he started the season. The Past few games. Kirk Cousins serviceable. I'm not saying he's great. To me, the one reason that I'm not like going all in on the Falcons yet is because I want to know Drake London's status. He is so important to this team, but like very.

Chad Millman (43:11)

Unlikely. He hasn't practiced all week. So, you know, and they're 4 and 8. Like, are they really going to rush back their. Their number one player on their.

Simon Hunter (43:20)

Team? Absent that. Absent that. This is peak Seattle and the lowest of the low valleys for Atlanta. So I get why the wise guys are on it. I get why it's moved from seven and a half to seven. I'm surprised that you and I are split on this.

Chad Millman (43:39)

One.

Chad Millman (43:41)

Yeah. It's just again, Atlanta is a type of team where I'm not saying all the teams they've played in the past are bad, but they have not played a team, in my opinion on this Seattle level where, you know, they went to New England. I don't know if you remember that game they lost by one point. It was 24, 23. That's a totally different team at this point. Right. That's with Drake London. That's with Penix at quarterback. Like, this is. I don't think they were reacting enough to how bad this Falcons team now is with Kirk at the helmet. Without Drake London. It's just, you know, their last three games, you know, not going to take too much away from it. But it's been against Carolina, New Orleans and the Jets. They won one game, that whole unit, right. That was when they went to the Orange and they blew out the. The Saint team. But you even talked about how that game was much closer than people realize. Right. That was type of game where Saints could have their own way. And eventually Kirk took it away from them. Right. They went 24 to 10. So it's just a fact, I seem that they beat up on bad. They beat and played bad teams here with Kirk. This is a legit juggernaut like the Seahawks. The more numbers I dive into them. Like you said, if San Darno could figure it out, their path to the super bowl is. Is literally there. Like they have the guys, they have the pieces. It's all going to come to Sam Darnold. So for me, this is a get right game for Sam Darnold. He should light up this defense. And I think what you're talking about is true. The only thing we're wary of here is just such a huge number to be back in Sam Darnold on the road. But Talked. If you just don't get too hard about yourself on Sam Darnold. This head coach with Gino Smith has gone on the road and won games and covered games and going back to last year. So it kind of seems like we need to stop thinking so much about what the quarterback is and start really realizing this is a head coach team like a lot of these other teams. We talk about like, you know, this head coach might be one of the best in football. And you know, McDonald here, his record on the road as just a young coach, he's 9 and 4 against the spread. So, you know, this year we've seen it. His two non covers have been, you know, sadly, both games I backed or no, he did cover against the Rams, but he didn't cover against Tennessee. But we talked. I feel like a very fluky backdoor cover by the Tennessee team. So I'm gonna hold, hold my line here. Back to Seahawks team on the road. I just. The numbers move too much of minus 7. I gotta take the Seahawks. If you, if you're like Chad and you want to back the Falcons, I hope you could have got the seven and a half, but it's seven. I just, I can't advise you to bet. I think you're betting into a bad.

Simon Hunter (46:05)

Number. Well, suffice to say it won't be in our contest.

Simon Hunter (46:11)

All right, we mentioned Mike Tomlin, we mentioned the Steelers. Pittsburgh is visiting The Baltimore Ravens, -5 and a half point favorites against their division rivals. This is going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock.

Chad Millman (46:30)

Bet. You know what it takes. It takes brass.

Simon Hunter (46:33)

Balls.

Simon Hunter (46:35)

We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half. We don't want to pile on to Mike Tomlin, who we love and we think he's an amazing coach. It's the rare time we are not backing the rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. All betting is a risk. We recognize Lamar Jackson is not as healthy as he has been. This offense has not been as consistent as we would like it to be. To me, this is really a bet against Aaron Rodgers. The inability of this offense to move the ball down the field and a bet against even more. They're very quickly aging in front of our eyes. Defense.

Simon Hunter (47:22)

And a hope, a hope. A bet that the Ravens offense can take a smidgen of advantage against a defense that as the games go on, continues to get worse and worse in third downs and continues to get worse and worse in explosive plays. And that's when we can see Derrick Henry break open some game some big gains and put these games away. It's what happened last year in the playoffs. We, we've seen it happen a couple times with his team when they just completely collapse and the office can't function. So Ravens minus five and a.

Chad Millman (47:57)

Half.

Chad Millman (47:59)

Yeah, we love this Ravens team and this is a line that I'm almost positive will be in our contest because this is such a unique matchup where, you know, it's, it's not, it's not that calm that the public has totally given up on Lamar. But it feels like that's what we reached here with this line chat.

Simon Hunter (48:17)

Where this probably should be really does.

Chad Millman (48:19)

Just look at just matchup and most people's models. You're going to have this at seven. So. All right. It's a point and a half off. All right, great. We're getting this Ravens at a point, half off. But it's also a unique spot where the Ravens have now not covered in three straight weeks. Right. So not only is the public going to be off of them, I think they're going to be on Pittsburgh just because I'm not the only one with those trends. Everyone's going to be giving out those trends all week. Right. That is a known trend thing where if you just blindly back the dogs in this matchup, whether it be the Ravens or Pittsburgh, over the last 20 years, you've come out green. And especially when the numbers above 3, I gave out that stat. Tomlin, when he's underdog in this matchup, above three or even hardball either side. When the number is above three, the, the, the underdog team is 23 and five against the spread in that spot. So historically you've just blindly backed the big dog in the spot. And it's worked out for you. When you go back through all those years, even when the Ravens had down years, it really always was defensive. Like you look at all the scores of all those games, it was these insane, grueling defensive.

Simon Hunter (49:20)

Battles. 16, 14, 2017. Like the, it was games where the Steelers defense made big, big plays and caused huge turnovers that turned the game. That's what you were always banking.

Chad Millman (49:34)

On. The last three times they played in Pittsburgh won the game. So the last two the Ravens have won, they. I think they've blown them out. But I, I just thought it was interesting. The last three times that Pittsburgh won, they won 18, 16. Does that not sound like a defensive game? They went 17 to 10. Does that not sound like a defensive game? And they won again. 17 to 10. So we talked to Lamar early in his career, he was 0 and 5 against the spread and straight up against his Pittsburgh team. That was when Pittsburgh had this dominant defense. Now these last years, right, these last two years, the cracks have been forming. This year it's just totally, the dam is broken, the floodgate are totally open. We talked about like I went back and looked just to make sure I wasn't speaking out of turn on TJ Watt. All the numbers back it up. He's been atrocious, getting no pressures at all. And you know, if we look at this matchup just on paper, we get Lamar is banged up. That is something we're going to have to deal with here. This should be a Derek Henry bounce back everything they've talked about. The coaches in turn said they made a huge mistake not running him more against Cincinnati. Right. They went too much into Lamar, put too much on Lamar's play and he just did not live up to it against Cincy last week, where I think this week they'll lean into it. And you know, once again, you talk about this matchup defensively, this Ravens team, I kind of love it where they've had Kyle Hamilton moving all over the field. This feels the type of game he's really going to take over. You got so rogers that if you already know you can't throw the ball 20 plus yards down the field, you're just going to stack the box. You're going to try to make them force the ball downfield because that's where you've seen him turn the ball over. So I, I love this match for this Ravens team and shocked to see the public is coming in on this Pittsburgh team. The tickets, the money, it's all coming on Pittsburgh. Five and a half. It's a good.

Simon Hunter (51:15)

Number. I'm floored by the way. Aaron Rodgers, 20 yards downfield. How about six yards downfield? Don't forget the stat I gave the other day from Ben Solak in his column in ESPN.com 66% of his passing yards are coming with yards after the catch. Like this is historically bad.

Simon Hunter (51:35)

And so it's going to be a haul for him to get the ball downfield. Everyone's seeing it. Everyone's seeing the same thing. All right, Baltimore Ravens brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bett. Cincinnati at Buffalo. Buffalo's a five and a half point favorite. You love the Bills here. The number move five and a half to six down to six, down from six to five and a half. The public is all over The Bengals in this game, you mentioned in sharp calls, the wise guys like the Bengals in this game, I have.

Chad Millman (52:07)

Six. I just want people to realize that they took them heavy at the.

Simon Hunter (52:10)

Six. Right? At the six. It's like I can't wrap my head around this game yet. I don't want to invest in the Bills. I don't have any faith in their defense and I don't want to invest in the Bengals. I don't have any faith in their defense. I think it's like, it's a perfect strength against weakness, strength against weakness game. I don't see an edge for anybody. It could go either.

Chad Millman (52:31)

Direction.

Chad Millman (52:34)

No, it's totally fair. And I gave up those stats. Joe Burrow, I mean, you take away the Hamlin game that got basically canceled out, but he's 20 straight up and against the spread against his Bills team, so, you know, clearly early in his career, he's matched up well against his Bills team, played well against him, and, you know, I get why there is love for this Bengals team where. Check out the stats, right? The secondary of this Bills team, they're bad against downfield passes. That's exactly the offense Cincinnati wants to run. They want to push the ball downfield. But I just. When I really break this one down, it just feels like this can be a ball control type of game, especially in the elements. Like, we've already talked about the lake effects that could be happening in Cleveland. Could be the same here in Buffalo. Right. Could be a really weird weather game, which that favors this Bill's team. They don't have offensive line that wants to be in perhaps protect. They have an offensive line, wants to run the ball. We saw that last week with Pittsburgh that, you know, they want to just be the heavy big guys pushing these guys downfield. And we've seen it with Cincinnati. They don't really have a pass rush, let alone a deep tackle that can stop the run. So it's. It feels like the Bills are gonna be able to pick their poison here offensively, how to beat them. And, you know, as much grievance we want to give this post defense, how bad they've been, there are some ways they can attack you. Now. I did see Bosa popped up the injury report, not practicing this week, which I know you'd be like, oh, it's not that big of a deal. He's actually been really good for them this.

Simon Hunter (53:49)

Year. He's been great this.

Chad Millman (53:50)

Year. Yeah. So that's been a great signing by them. You definitely need him back in this type of matchup where you need to keep Burrow off his spot and you know people want to glaze over. Burrow is not playing healthy. He is playing hurt. He's talked about it. He's basically got a special insert on his foot that every time he's pushing off that toe, he's feeling it. He says it's. It's pain shooting up his leg. But he says he becomes numb to it when he's playing the game because he's got other things going on in his mind. So you know, you're, you're put. You're taking a wounded Joe Burrow as a, as a, as a dog on the road in a spot that Chad just said. The public is all over it so maybe I won't force it into one of our five come Sunday. But I do really love this Bills team in this number. But I'm just a little hesitant because the stat I gave out Joe Burrow is a dog. Three points or greater. 18, three against the spread. He just, he's a covering machine. So I just, I'm trying not to put all in here on this Bills team where I, I kind of like Chad. I'm a little weary of it. Just something I don't trust about this Bills team, but just feels like this is the exact time you want to back this Bills team in this spot because they just tend to roll bad.

Simon Hunter (54:49)

Defenses. Let's just see what the weather is on.

Chad Millman (54:52)

Sunday. It's.

Simon Hunter (54:53)

Fair.

Simon Hunter (54:55)

Let's talk about the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers. Because this game was at six and a half and I bring it back up because it was moving in the packers direction. The public is backing the packers right now. A slight money edge towards the packers, but an indication that it's pretty split. 5050 between the bears and the Packers. When it comes to the professional betting community.

Simon Hunter (55:28)

I, I like. It's another one. I'm being a little bit wishy washy here. I don't even know if I'll bet it. I just want to watch the Bears. I'm not, I'm not kidding, Simon. I'm pretty sure I had a dream about the Bears last.

Chad Millman (55:41)

Night. You gotta bet the Bears moneyline.

Simon Hunter (55:45)

Brother. Yeah, I'll bet the Bears money.

Chad Millman (55:47)

Line. Yeah, you got. If you're, if you're a Bears fan, it feels like 100. The ultimate slave. Slay the demon. This is like I talked about. This is the team that's been in your guys way for so many years. And you know this is the best Bear season since the Mitch Trubisky. Double doink. So it's like, I don't know. If I was a Bears fan, I, I would be all in on it. You're getting a good number. But we've talked about. This is just like Cincinnati. This is a huge, shockingly public dog because the money might be a little, even the tickets, it's all over the Bears. All over the Bears. So that's, that's very alarming where it's like, oh my God, this is a ton of money coming on or just a ton of public coming in on this bearish side. But I, I, I want to be on Green Bay, but I honestly see why this money is coming on the spares team. Like, it feels like it is warranted because we've seen with this packers team, they're, it's not like they're that great against inconsistent. Very, they're inconsistent as well, but like as big favorites too this year, you know, it's not like they're a recovery machine. We've seen them struggle. As a big favorite this year, I believe they started the year 06 as a six and a six and a half or seven point favorite to start the season. So, you know, there is some things to take away from this where, you know, this Bears team, they basically have been on this divisional run here. So as bad as they looked, right, like they've had some letdown games, they did dominate that Minnesota team, which, okay, we won't take much away from that JJ McCarthy that, you know, I don't know if they dominated Detroit, but they did play like we talked about, playing with big balls. LaFleur going for all those fourth downs, that was insane. That was like next level. Like he was just playing simply to win. He did not care about trying to play for field goals in that game. So I think it's gonna be the same here, Chad, that you're gonna see LaFleur and kill mode against you guys. And he's had the Bears number, so I love this game so much. Like Chad said he's gonna probably take the Bears moneyline or either set this one out on the other side where it's like, I'm going to be Oliver Green Bay, but just not very confident. I thought I'd be more confident come Thursday, be like, oh yeah, all the pros are with me on this Packer side. This is the right side. I see, I see what people are seeing with this bearish and I see what the public is seeing where as good as this Green Base team is divisional game, you have to throw a lot of that out. And you know, Leflore, as great as he's been down the stretch here, I don't know, like, this is the type of matchup that I could see Ben Johnson really challenging him, which he's not have. You know, he's not been challenged by Bears coaches in the past. Right. We look back on this, the Bears coacher regime, they've not had a guy like we can, we can say like Ben Johnson here. So I love it. This is the exact type of scenario where it's like, is this the turning of a page or is this the same old Bears, Chad? So I, I love it for all the hoopla off the field stuff we'll be able to talk about after the.

Simon Hunter (58:32)

Fact. But look, the.

Chad Millman (58:33)

Schedule. Chad, I'm on Green Bay, but I get why you're taking a position on the Bears money.

Simon Hunter (58:38)

Line. The schedule is littered with these kind of turn the page moments. And where are the Lions, the Lions of old or the Lions of New? Are the Chiefs the Chiefs of old or the Chiefs of new? Are the Bears, the Bears of old or the Bears of new? We're constantly having to ask these questions. That's what makes betting so interesting, is like you have to take a stand. You have to put your money on the line with an opinion about where you think something is going to go, not where it's been. That's what makes it so fascinating. All I know is I woke up to pee in the middle of the night and I'm fairly certain when I woke up I was dreaming about the Bears. And I think it was the Bears screen game. I swear to God that's what I was dreaming.

Chad Millman (59:30)

About. One game barriers. Fans who bet they're over under, they've already hit their win total for the season. Eight and a.

Simon Hunter (59:35)

Half. One game that we have made a choice on together. We are on the same side. The Los Angeles Rams -7 and a half versus the Arizona Cardinals. We know we're going against the wise guys here. We're basically back in. We're going against the big home dog that has lost seven games by four points or less because they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns. And the Rams are coming off their worst game of the year where they were on the road as ten and a half point favorites and lost outright. I'm okay back in the Rams here. I'm okay back in. Sean McVay here. I like this defense to get pressure against Jacoby Brissette. I'm perfectly fine with our position. Are you still perfectly fine with our.

Chad Millman (60:22)

Position? I am. It feels like a nice spot to back this Rams team after an embarrassing loss on the road where everything felt like it was going against them and this Arizona team, you know, we, we kind of fell in love with Jacoby Brissette and it's our own fault because of that Dallas game where they were just so impressed that they played so well. But we've seen it since then. When they do play, they're juggernaut of the division. They get actually absolutely smoked. And you know, Seattle, I believe they beat him 44, 22. Then they played the 49ers, who beat him, I believe 41, 22. And I gave you that crazy stat. It was the first time a team had given up 40 points in back to back weeks, divisional foes in like 30 years. So we know historically this is a horrible, horrible Cardinals defense. And every game they've come back in, it's been because either the team lets them in, they don't really shut them out, or you know, Jacoby Brissette just has these incredible moments. And like that Bucks game, the buck should have been up double digits, right? That guy went.

Simon Hunter (61:17)

Touchdown. That guy went.

Chad Millman (61:18)

Touchdown. Yeah, let them linger. And we've talked about Brissette. If you let him linger, he's going to come back in that back door and get that cover. So that would be the only fear for me here. But this feels like the absolute type of game where, you know, we see the Rams after a bad loss with McVeigh put up 40, 42 points like these other divisional teams did against this really bad Cardinals defense. And I gave you those stats. He's absolutely owned Arizona. McVeigh as a head coach. He just has their number and matchup scheme wise, he does really well against them. So not gonna let the big number scare us off. Chad. Minus seven and a half. I'm take down this Rams.

Simon Hunter (61:49)

Team. All right, so we're building a roster here for Sunday. Last game I want to talk about is Houston at Kansas City. Kansas city still at minus three. Minus 120 at Hard Rock. Bat mostly three and a halfs elsewhere, as I just said, if the Chiefs gone the way of the Lions, is it time to get off them this year? Is there still magic in the number three? Can they break the trend of losing all these close games? Will there be regression back to the mean in a positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs? This game has massive, massive playoff implications for both team. It is the tipping point fulcrum moment for These teams in the season. The Texans defense is awesome. But I am always going to be loathe to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as a short favorite in a must have scenario that is one that I. That that is a bridge too far. I can't walk away. I can't be the one who's betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever and is still in his prime.

Chad Millman (63:00)

Yeah. If you want to join the public and the professionals there on the Texas like Chad talked about, it's. It's really about the number. Right. This chief team isn't good enough to be favored minus three and a half which is what I think a lot of pros in the public are taking that position on which I totally get. We're talking minus three here at Hard Rock which hopefully in our contest. God bless Hard Rock, they'll give us two and a.

Simon Hunter (63:19)

Half.

Chad Millman (63:19)

Yeah. Because that will be an automatic play in my opinion on this Chiefs team because that to me would be too much of reaction. And this is me Simon guy who's been fading this Chiefs team non stop since that Bills game. I think you know took a position against them with Denver they were minus four favorite, they lost outright. Took a position against them against the Colts I think they were minus four and a half. They closed favorite, they won by three. Took a position against them with the Dallas Cowboys minus half plus three and a half on Dallas, they lost outright to Dallas. So we've seen these last three games it all comes down to last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually gotta go the other way. Right. This Chiefs mathematically they can't keep losing these one score games. Right. And we've seen my homes tend to excel that this year it just not has been that.

Matt Mitchell (64:02)

Way.

Chad Millman (64:02)

Right. When they get in these close games it's either he's not had the ball in his hands and the other team's just eating the clock up or he goes in there and it's just not been Mahomes like Read. He's made the mistakes and not brought his team back from depth. So I love how desperate this chief's going to team is going to be. But on the flip side I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They know they're playing for the division their own playoff lives. So I get why people are taking their position on this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and let the number get to a position where I feel comfortable betting it. It's at that spot. I'm going to take the minus three and pray the pros keep coming on Texas and I get a two and a half but got no issue taking the minus three. I just feel like this is finally a Chief's line. This is the exact spot you want to back Mahomes of this Chiefs.

Simon Hunter (64:44)

Team. So glad to hear you say that. I so believe in the Chiefs in this spot. I could be blinded by.

Chad Millman (64:51)

It. We are, we're definitely. This is a past performance bet. I'm happy to admit that. Where it's like I.

Matt Mitchell (64:57)

Just. You.

Chad Millman (64:58)

You. I'm. I'm willing to see Mahomes die here, but this is the exact type of game we talk Mahomes, they're going to have to stab him the hard 30 times and cut his head off before he's dead. He's just not going to go quietly into the night. This man is going to fight to the last second and now you're giving me a minus three on that at home. I got to take, I have to take that.

Simon Hunter (65:16)

Number.

Simon Hunter (65:22)

We can talk about the, the Eagles at the Chargers for a second. Just because you mentioned it in sharp calls. I, I don't think it's a game we're going to put in the contest. We're not going to. I can't imagine we're getting a two and a half.

Simon Hunter (65:34)

But if you have strong opinion. I, I'm agnostic with the pros.

Chad Millman (65:37)

Then like the pros they're all, they're all on this Chargers team and they're just. Even the public's with the Chargers and it's just. Everyone's just same boat. I think it's just so negative, so bad for this Eagles team where if I told you you can get this Eagles team who's pretty healthy minus two and a half against a one handed Herbert that's out his left and right tackle. You'd be running to the window with me. So that's my. I, I can't believe it. Like when I was talking to pros I'm like what am I missing? Like you guys love this Chargers team. I can't believe it. Like I cannot believe this is not the exact time you hammer this Eagle side in this number. It just, the hate has gone too far. I just cannot get over it. It's like all right, Herbert against bad teams, we don't mind back them him against the Raiders. Yeah, that's exactly when you back Herbert him against a great playoff defense and team, you fade them. You do not back Herbert here in this spot. So I might be blind to it, have my biases here, but I got this number model -3 and a half for this Eagles team. So you know you're getting a full point of value. And the fact that public and the professionals are all coming to the Chargers, it feels like this is a nice spot to be with the sportsbook here back in this Eagles team at my tune. So I, I, maybe I'm missing something here, but I, I can't believe it. It's to me the hate's gone too far. Like Herbert, you're, you're a tough son of a here, but you're not going against, you know, a bad defensive line. This is a defensive line that can get after a quarterback and put major pressure on them. So this just feels like a nice match with this Eagles team. And yeah, this is a very unique spot for me where I, I thought I would be all in on the Seagulls team, but I'm very hesitantly betting it because I'm just worried there's something I'm missing here. This Eagles team, it just feels way too Easy getting Eagles -2 and a half against, like I said, a one handed Herbert without his left and right tackle. Like it's just what am I missing here? I'm missing something.

Simon Hunter (67:27)

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Simon Hunter (72:37)

Factors.

Simon Hunter (72:39)

All right Simon, let's talk about the biggest.

Chad Millman (72:41)

Bets. Pull up those pants and be a man. Yeah. Shockingly a week. I'm a little, not a little gunshot, but I kind of am. Honestly, I, I usually would have a lot more bet this week in this position, but again, we didn't really talk about much. I've taken a pretty large position on the Saints like that match or maybe we'll talk a little bit more Sunday for, for dogs, that's probably my, one of my bigger spots right now is them in Washington. The. And, and the Jaguars. And for favorites. You know, I can't quit it. Cleveland, Baltimore, I just, I, I really love both those Favorites and the Chiefs at minus three. I really love that one. So nothing huge yet. Maybe come Sunday I'll have some really big bets. But right now I'm not just dipping my toes and my whole foot's in the water. I, I put some good money into it, but I'm not, I haven't dived in yet. I'm just a little hesitant. I want to see what the weather report is, what the injury report is come.

Simon Hunter (73:30)

Today. All right. Underdog Moneyline.

Chad Millman (73:35)

Parlay.

Chad Millman (73:38)

My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my.

Simon Hunter (73:42)

Dog. Who do we want to do this week? I would say Jaguars. Yeah.

Chad Millman (73:47)

Jets. Jets. And then let's do for the third one, let's do.

Simon Hunter (73:51)

Washington. All Right. And then I think for the favorites, we want to do the Rams. I made a list the other day. We want to.

Chad Millman (74:00)

Do. We'll take. Take the range down to five and a half.

Simon Hunter (74:03)

Though.

Chad Millman (74:04)

Okay. Don't do the money line. Do the five and a.

Simon Hunter (74:06)

Half.

Chad Millman (74:07)

Seattle.

Chad Millman (74:09)

Seattle. I do the same thing. Take it to five and a half. I wouldn't do money line. And for money lines, I would do Chiefs. I think we both agree on that one.

Simon Hunter (74:17)

Right? Yeah.

Chad Millman (74:19)

Baltimore. I was like, how do we not get Ravens in there? We love that.

Simon Hunter (74:22)

One.

Chad Millman (74:23)

Yeah. Buffalo for the last one. Yeah, I'll do Buffalo.

Chad Millman (74:29)

Yeah. That feels. I mean, I. I'm with you. I don't want to do Green.

Simon Hunter (74:32)

Bay. Let's do Buffalo, Kansas.

Chad Millman (74:35)

City. Buffalo or Denver, if you don't love Buffalo, because that is risky. Right. We take. We're going against a good quarterback. All right, I gave you the stats. Denver bone. Knicks as a favorite. 15 and oh, straight up. So if you want to get Bo Nixon there, you can easily get that down to two and a half. One and a half. You don't have to take the money.

Simon Hunter (74:52)

Line. Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, Seattle, and the Rams, take them down to minus five and a half. That is our favorites. Moneyline parlay. Simon, it's time for sharp versus Square.

Simon Hunter (75:11)

We missed it last week with the condensed show schedule. Give me your. Should we do. I don't want to do Atlanta versus Seattle. I don't know who's going to be playing in that game yet. Go.

Chad Millman (75:22)

Ahead. I mean, if for my square side, I was thinking the Chiefs minus 3, but I'll stick to my MO in this part where I always go sharp. So give me. Give me the Saints plus eight and a.

Simon Hunter (75:35)

Half. Interesting. Very interesting. Okay. I would say.

Simon Hunter (75:44)

Oh, boy.

Simon Hunter (75:47)

Chad's choice was the Jets. Brass balls, I think was the Ravens. Simon says was the commanders. We haven't done rock in a hard place yet.

Simon Hunter (76:03)

All right, give me the.

Bowen Yang (76:05)

Jacks.

Chad Millman (76:06)

Wow. He's full.

Simon Hunter (76:08)

Circle.

Chad Millman (76:09)

Yeah. Oh, my.

Simon Hunter (76:09)

God. I know. Well, honestly, it came down to them in the Browns, and I feel like the Browns on Sunday.

Chad Millman (76:15)

Are. Got.

Simon Hunter (76:16)

Scenario. Yeah. As rock and hard place. That's what I'm.

Chad Millman (76:19)

Thinking. Oh.

Simon Hunter (76:20)

Okay. I think. I think it's going to be. I think it's just going to be a hard conversation on Sunday about the Browns. All right. This has been Sharper Square. We're part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sunday on Sharper Square YouTube. We're going to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation that Simon and I have. We'll panic. We'll make utterly human decisions. Regret the rest of the day. We'll be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night 7:30ish watch or listen at YouTube Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Apple Pods Spotify wherever you get your pods rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you okay this isn't.

Chad Millman (77:04)

College. You're not at a home college I understand. This is and NFL which stands for not for long when you make them.

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Calls. I'll be selling.

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