Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd — “Sharp or Square: Sharp NFL Week 15 Bets”

Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Chad Millman
Co-host: Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

In this episode of "Sharper Square," Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter break down their sharpest NFL betting plays for Week 15. Their mission: make the “squares” sharper and force wise guys to pay attention by dissecting lines, market movement, and actionable stats for the week's games. The show includes candid debate, “brass balls” picks, notable industry statistics, and a rundown of both consensus and contrarian positions among pro gamblers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Tone and Movie Mix-up (03:12–06:41)

• Chad and Simon kick off on a loose note, correcting a famous movie quote misattribution from a prior episode (confusing “Airplane!” with “Planes, Trains and Automobiles”).
• “Everybody who listens to this podcast knew what they were getting into. Shame on me. Shame on Matt for not correcting it. Shame on the listeners for signing up for this dreck.” — Chad Millman (06:41)
• Sets a light, self-deprecating tone for the upcoming sharp football talk.

2. “Sharp Calls” – Market Respect and Wise Guy Leans (07:42–11:12)

• Simon’s phone lights up: reports on insider professional betting positions for the week:
  • Strong Pro Interest:
    • Atlanta: Some pros are heavy on the Falcons, though Simon holds off.
    • New England Patriots: Plenty of sharp money; line hammered from +1.5 to -1.5.
    • Rams, Green Bay, Chiefs: Consensus among sharps.
    • Less Love Than Expected:
      • Saints: Pros more tepid than anticipated, possibly due to emotional swings and QB uncertainty.
    • Cincinnati Bengals: Injured, line volatility tied to Joe Burrow’s “somber interview.”
  • Split professional opinions on Cleveland/Chicago and Colts/Seahawks games.
• Big dogs (double-digit underdogs) are seeing unusual professional action this week, but Simon is more hesitant.

3. Week 15 Contest and Picks Context (11:12–14:22)

• Chad reminds listeners of the free Sharper Square Pick’ Em contest rules — only one entry per person.
• Recaps prior contest results, emphasizing unpredictability: “It wasn’t won by a professional gambler. It was won by a rancher from Bow Bells, North Dakota, who came on the show. Lovely dude. Said he was going to use all his prize money to buy more cattle.” (13:16)
• Prediction for winner’s record: 35-10 out of 45 possible picks.

4. Deep Dives: Featured Game Breakdowns

A. Chiefs vs. Chargers (14:22–18:15)

• Injury-decimated Chargers offensive line; bad spot for Herbert (playing with a broken finger).
• Justin Herbert as an underdog: historically great ATS (11-2-1 as a dog with line above 3.5, 4-0 ATS vs. Chiefs/Andy Reid).
• Despite these trends, Simon and Chad agree it's a unique negative spot for L.A.; they both take the Chiefs.
• Chad: “The look on Travis Kelce’s face... he just looked so sad — a prideful athlete trying to figure out what the fuck is going on.” (16:44)
• Both put the Chiefs “in the contest.”

B. Bills vs. Patriots (18:15–23:15)

• Sharp split, but both hosts stick with Buffalo as slight favorites, trusting Josh Allen.
• Stat of the week: Patriots as home dogs after 10+ straight wins (only 2 times in 20 years); heavy historical edge has favored the big dog but Chad/Son trust Allen and see mistakes in first matchup as fixable.
• Simon highlights Bill Belichick’s (and by analogy, Mike Vrabel’s) post-bye week trend — 6-1 ATS/SU.
• They acknowledge risk but “are going to bet on Josh Allen.”
  • Quote: “We are both stepping in it. This is a season-making game for either of these teams. It’s a playoff game. It really is.” — Chad Millman (22:58)

C. Cardinals vs. Texans (27:19–30:31)

• Cardinal-Texans line holding at 9.5 despite heavy public Texans money, signaling resistance from sharps.
• Simon prefers Arizona at +10, flags Texans’ questionable status as big favorites, and suggests taking the under (Texans 10-3 to the under with CJ Stroud).
• General skepticism over Arizona’s locker room and coaching staff: “A lot of really respectable guys in the media saying he might be out, like Gannon might be done...”
• Not an automatic contest play but being watched closely.

D. Bengals vs. Ravens (30:31–33:59)

• “Joe Burrow as a dog just covers,” but both hesitate to put this game in the contest at current line (2.5), wait-and-see if it hits 3.5.
• Both teams trending poorly; Ravens historically struggle as home division favorites.
• Simon: “Kind of love [the] Bengals if they get the three and a half... Dog bigger than three he’s 19-3 ATS.”

E. Browns vs. Bears (33:59–36:48)

• Number stuck at 7.5; extreme cold weather expected.
• Both lean Browns (+7.5) based on long-shot value and emotional Bears letdown spot after a big Packers game.
• “Try not to overreact... expect Cleveland to bounce back here, especially defensively. But my God, I’m happy if we can avoid this one in the contest.” — Simon (36:48)

F. Rams vs. Lions (36:48–41:01)

• “We both love the Rams here. We both bit into the Rams five and a half.”
• Heavy professional money on Rams; line has moved to -6 (originally -5.5).
• Simon required to hold back on his best numbers for paying clients.
• Rams, in December, coached by McVay: 16-3 ATS since 2021.
• Chad: “Stafford is so good right now. Puka Nacua is so good right now. The Rams are not the Cowboys — they can do it all.” (41:01)
• Probably won’t be “brass balls” pick due to line move; still a strong play.

G. Saints vs. Panthers (Carolina at New Orleans) (41:01–46:42)

• Saints are +2.5 home dogs, strange for a team chasing the NFC South.
• Historically, Saints as home dogs: 4-17 SU/5-16 ATS since 2020 — “the worst mark in the NFL.”
• Panthers’ Bryce Young: 0-11 ATS as a fave early career.
• Chad/Simon on Saints at +3 if available. Potential for “weird” awards futures discussed.

H. Packers vs. Broncos (47:02–50:04)

• Chad’s pick, loads of advanced metric love for Green Bay; finally believe the eye test matches analytics.
• Jordan Love vs. single-high safety (Broncos coverage): strong matchup.
• Simon expects Packers to -3, not scared by small line moves; keeps Packers in contest.

5. “Brass Balls Bet” & Other Major Bets (50:30–52:48)

Brass Balls Bet (50:30–52:48)

• Minnesota Vikings +6 at Cowboys are their high-upside, high-risk “brass balls” pick.
  • Chad: “Forget about J.J. McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks... I have to believe in what I’ve seen...” (51:02)
  • Simon: It’s “really a bet on [Minnesota's] defense... I do think they’ll be able to get stops against the Cowboys.”

Most Confident Bets (“Biggest Bets,” 65:27)

• Rams -5.5/-6
• Packers -2/-2.5
• Chiefs at -4.5/under 6
• Lean Buffalo Bills but not as big a position

6. Additional Notes, Sharp Statistical Nuggets & Quick Picks

• Underdog Parlay (66:15):
  Chad: New Orleans, Cincinnati, Washington, Minnesota
  Simon: Adds Cleveland, and then his favorite, the Raiders (+490).
• Favorites Parlay: Rams, Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh (per Simon’s Monday night stats).
• Lazy Man Stat (56:25): Teams that are shut out in the previous game are 34-17-3 ATS since 2015, and 4-0 this year.
• Monday Night Football: Steelers, since 1992, are 22-1 straight up at home on MNF.
• Tennessee Titans as a Pro Play: Recent pros have flipped from Niners to Titans based on historically poor Kyle Shanahan performance off byes: 4-8 ATS after a bye.
• Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather: 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS when under 40°F, losing by 19 points/gm average.
• Washington Giants “Lazy Man” play: Always back a team after a shutout loss; this week, that’s Washington.
• Bounce Back/Bigger Dog Trends:
  • Joe Burrow as underdog of >3 points: 19-3 ATS.
  • Justin Herbert as a dog: 11-2-1 ATS when line above 3.5.
• Chad: “For every season there is a time, Simon. We have certain teams we lock in on.” (52:48)

7. Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The holidays are here and the sports schedule is packed tighter than Santa’s gift bag.” — Chad, plugging sponsor (58:07)
• “He [Travis Kelce] just looked so sad — a prideful athlete trying to figure out what the fuck is going on.” — Chad (16:44)
• “We’re riding a knife’s edge all season with some of these teams.” — Chad (69:00)
• “Don’t care.” — Chad, on Packers’ historic Denver road struggles (50:19)
• “I want to make money off the suffering. That’s the key here.” — Simon, about betting the Raiders as big underdogs (67:05)
• “Pull up those pants and be a man!” — Simon, as they share their biggest bets (65:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:12] Podcast proper starts, with self-mocking movie quote correction
• [07:42] “Sharp Calls”/wise guy market recap
• [14:22] Chiefs vs. Chargers deep dive
• [18:15] Bills vs. Patriots breakdown
• [27:19] Cardinals at Texans betting philosophy
• [30:31] Bengals/Ravens, split pro views, Burrow as dog
• [33:59] Browns/Bears cold weather, emotional letdowns
• [36:48] Rams/Lions passion, McVay trend
• [41:01] Saints/Panthers divisional breakdown
• [47:02] Packers/Broncos, advanced metrics vs. eye test
• [50:30] Brass Balls Bet: Vikings +6 at Cowboys
• [53:04] Extra sharp stat segment (Titans, Steelers, Tua, Commanders)
• [65:27] Biggest bets recap
• [66:15] Underdog/favorite parlays

Final Thoughts

This episode offers a comprehensive window into a sharp betting process—pragmatic, stat-driven, with doses of humor, humility, and insider perspective. The core message: trust the numbers, respect market moves, but sometimes you need “brass balls” to make the toughest plays. Whether you’re a degenerate gambler or football analytics enthusiast, Chad and Simon’s banter and deep knowledge both entertain and deliver value for the weekend ahead.

End of Summary