The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS

Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Chad Mullen
Co-host: Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" dives deep into NFL Week 16 betting analysis, featuring debates between public ("square") and pro ("sharp") perspectives. Veteran sports bettor Simon Hunter and host Chad Mullen traverse a loaded NFL slate, dissect line moves, uncover trends, and debate the logic—evidence and vibes—behind each of their favorite bets. The discussion moves fast from game to game with sharp commentary, inside jokes, and playful banter. The primary theme: How to find value in betting lines by sifting through hype, professional consensus, and public overreaction.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Early Week Betting Drama and Market Moves

[04:04] Simon Hunter: "I just know because I basically got crushed by a bunch of pro betters … I was spooked up by the line. I couldn't get why it was moving, why people are hammering Miami … That pretty shocking lineman. Miami plus four and a half now against Cincinnati."

• Simon laments missing a big early line move after insider QB news, illustrating the power (and pain) of information in sports betting.

Thursday Night and Divisional Game Dilemmas

Rams at Seahawks

[05:19 & 10:30] Simon Hunter & Chad Mullen

• Simon “against the sharps” on Rams, feeling the pros ("fake sharps") are too hyped on Seattle, warning about the fickle nature of divisional games.
• Puka Nacua's off-field distractions are discussed, but ultimately seen as negligible to the outcome.
  [11:10] Simon Hunter: “He’s in that mode where … everything he thinks, everything he says he thinks is the right truth. I think the dumbest thing I saw, he said, vegetables give you inflation, which could be true, but just wait, wait.”
• Chad highlights McVay's historic December excellence and the Seahawks' fading home-field edge.
• Ultimately, Simon is hesitant to force a play:
  [12:01] Simon Hunter: “This just feels like … a little overreaction to the Seattle thing … Maybe I am too close to this Rams team. I love them too much.”

Sharp Calls: Quick Pros vs Joes Snapshots

[07:08] Simon Hunter:

• Pros loving Dallas, flipping Simon onto the Cowboys.
• Washington Commanders emerge as a rare "brass balls" pick against Philadelphia due to inflated line, even as public pounds the Eagles.
• General theme: Prime time games are seeing sharp action, while earlier slate is more mixed.

Game-by-Game Betting Breakdowns

1. Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (Brass Balls Bet)

[15:31; 17:12; 19:18]

• Commanders (+6.5) drew strong sharp support due to line inflation, divisional dog dynamics, and Hurts/Eagles’ ATS letdown history.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Chad: “We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out … feels a little bit inflated.” [16:07]
  • Simon: “His December’s numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later hurts 5 and 7 against the spread. When he faces the NFC East, he's one of five in his career …" [18:19]
  • Simon: "This is just a bet for the Eagles to prove it to me." [18:19]
• Commanders are Simon’s “brass balls” bet because they’re the unpopular, uncomfortable, but statistically attractive side.

2. Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

[20:44; 23:01]

• Chad pines for a Titans moneyline play as injuries and line moves downgrade KC's value.
• Simon, contrarian, is “happy to avoid it”:
  "I'm just, I don't want to be there. I honestly don't want to be there with them." [23:20]

3. Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (Simon Says Pick)

[27:41; 28:35]

• Giants (+3) identified as a pros vs Joes game; Simon points out the “emotional letdown” effect after playing in Dallas and the Vikings’ struggles outdoors.
• Stat: Dome teams like Minnesota are 6-11 ATS in cold weather from December onward; Giants well-cast as home underdog.
• Simon: “It's such a nice spot to fade the Vikings … teams that play in Dallas then go on the road the next game after playing Dallas, their own six against the spread this season.” [28:35]
• Movement from +3 to +2.5 reduces contest value but sentiment remains bullish on NYG.

4. Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

[34:12; 35:34]

• The Bills (-10) are favored despite the Browns’ double-digit home dog status; Sharp instincts usually favor the home dog, but Simon's deep stat on Josh Allen switches sides:
  • Allen is 28-9 ATS against defenses allowing <20 PPG. [35:34]
  • “He doesn’t cover against teams that give up a ton of points, but teams that are very stingy defensively, he is unbelievable against them.” [35:53]
• Prospective letdown noted but ultimately: Buffalo is “contrarian” chalk pick this week.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

[39:12; 40:21]

• Jaguars (+3.5) considered due to Denver’s unsustainable winning streak and built-in regression angles.
• Simon notes Jags are quietly (statistically) dominant against the run and have a strong ATS profile under Trevor Lawrence off big wins.
• Fun Stat: Teams scoring 48+ since Nov are 59-42 ATS next week.
  • Simon: "It's a really Trevor Lawrence stat..." [43:02]
• Contrarian pros are coming in on Jaguars, not Broncos.

6. Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

[44:12; 44:45]

• Raiders (+14.5) are auto-bet "buy-low" candidates after a shutout; rare double-digit dog stat: teams off a shutout are 6-0 ATS this year.
• Pros and Chad both admit discomfort but “the numbers are telling you you're supposed to back the Raiders here.” [44:51]

7. New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

[47:35; 48:46]

• Sharp movement toward New England as contest line sits at +3.5 while market heads to +2.5, revealing pro money.
• Mike Vrabel bounce-back and late-season Lamar trends:
  • Lamar is 16-0 SU weeks 15-16, but only 7-10 ATS as 7+pt favorite.
• Patriots framed as the sharper, painful side: “the money’s moving the line in the favor of the Patriots and I think that’s why we’re playing them.” [47:35]

8. Dallas Cowboys vs. L.A. Chargers

[51:25; 54:25]

• Cowboys become a sharp pick as Simon relents:
  • "Dak in this exact spot, he's 15 and 4 straight up, 11 and 8 against the spread" [52:10]
  • “All the numbers, the pros are right … the underlying numbers back it up.”
• Public will hammer the Chargers; sharp money on Dallas.

9. Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[56:44; 58:20]

• Panthers (+3.5 contest) are an "auto-play" after loss, 6-0 ATS this year post-defeat.
• Professional money on Bucs is described as “lazy,” betting on the better team to eventually cover. But Simon, as well as Chad, maintain that Panthers are undervalued.
• Notable stat: “Since week 7, Baker [Mayfield] is 36th out of 38 quarterbacks in EPA per play.” [57:55]
• Bryce Young: 11 comeback wins as underdog since 2023. [58:20]

10. Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

[60:29; 61:33]

• Simon flips from initial Steelers lean to Lions, citing mostly ATS trends backing Dan Campbell after a straight-up loss and noting Tomlin's struggles as a large dog.
• “I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team, they're not as bad as I'm perceiving … they actually are a really good high powered offense.” [63:13]
• Lions -6.5 is more justifiable by the data than expected; public may overinflate Steelers due to recent hype.

11. Other Notes and Quick Hits

• Arizona at Atlanta: Mild lean Arizona but both hesitant; bad trends on both teams post-win, nothing compelling.
• Jets: Simon proclaims undying loyalty to Shuck, the young QB, but little betting conviction this week.
• Bears Domes Rant: Chad and Simon lament the death of cold-weather home field with bear/Bills domes looming.
  • Chad: "If the Bears build a dome, three of the four teams in their division now have domes, and only Green Bay won't ... they're losing all their character." [31:04]

Most Notable Quotes

• “It's the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.” —[02:55] Chad Mullen
• “This is my favorite. These guys think they're professionals, but they're actually frauds … Yeah, we know what we're doing taking Seattle here. This is a fishy line.” —[05:19] Simon Hunter
• "This just feels like again, it's all about picking your spots." —[12:01] Simon Hunter
• “Washington Commanders, brass balls bet of the week.” —[16:02] Chad Mullen
• "His December’s numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. ... When he faces the NFC East, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread." —[18:19] Simon Hunter
• “It could have. It could have fallen apart a bunch of different spots here. So this is just a bet for the Eagles to prove it to me.” —[18:19] Simon Hunter
• "I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you. But I bet the Raiders. I've taken the numbers." —[44:45] Simon Hunter
• "If we can't find a fifth one, we can do it. But it's ... We're simply betting this because of the trends in the numbers." —[44:51] Simon Hunter
• “Dak in this exact spot, he's 15 and 4 straight up, 11 and 8 against the spread his last 15 games in this exact spot.” —[52:10] Simon Hunter
• "Since week 7, Baker, he's 36th of 38 quarterbacks in the NFL of EPA per play." —[57:55] Simon Hunter
• "I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team, they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be." —[63:13] Simon Hunter

Suggested Bets & Contest Summary

(Summed up late in the episode [70:53])

• Strongest Positions & Contest Plays:
  • Commanders +6.5 (Brass Balls)
  • Giants +3 (Simon Says)
  • Patriots +3.5
  • Raiders +14.5
  • Panthers +3.5
  • Jaguars +3.5
  • Bills -10 (“Super square, but give me the Bills!”)
• Moneyline underdog parlay suggestions: Tennessee, Arizona, Giants, New England, Jaguars.
• Favorites parlay: Saints, Lions, Cincy, Bears/Dallas.

Notable Timestamps

• [07:08] – Sharp Calls: Pros vs. Joes breakdown for the week
• [15:31] – Thursday/Saturday game breakdowns (Rams/Seahawks, Redskins/Eagles)
• [27:41] – Giants pick (“Simon Says” segment)
• [34:12] – Bills/Browns breakdown and key Josh Allen stats
• [44:12] – Raiders after being shut out; double-digit dogs
• [47:35] – Patriots-Ravens sharp insight; Vrabel factor
• [52:07] – Dallas-Chargers: pros on Dallas, public on LA
• [56:55] – Panthers auto-play and the case against Bucs
• [60:29] – Detroit Lions bounce-back, Tomlin as a big dog
• [70:53] – Recap of favorite contest entries

Tone and Style

• The episode is marked by sharp, snappy football analysis, with lighthearted pro gambler banter.
• Simon mixes deep betting trends with personal bias, while Chad plays the pragmatic host—factoring in numbers and feelings.
• Confident and opinionated but peppered with humility ("Maybe I'm too close to it," "I might be stepping into it"), the dialogue leans heavily on historical context and statistical quirk.

Final Take

"Sharp or Square" thrives as a guide for bettors navigating the minefield of late-season NFL betting. Simon and Chad strike a balance between data-driven recommendations and skepticism of market overreactions, aiming to arm listeners with every edge they can uncover for Week 16.

For more picks and live updates, tune in to Sharp or Square YouTube and check contest lines before Sunday’s kickoff!