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The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Bills-Browns, Chargers-Cowboys, Bucs-Panthers, 49ers-Colts, Patriots-Ravens and more
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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
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Simon Hunter
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- [02:55]
Chad Mullen
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Mullen. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my padre, my bff professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:17]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing, dude?
- [03:19]
Chad Mullen
Big, big quarterback news on Wednesday. I. I don't know if you saw it. Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback for the New York jets for the second week in a row. Did you think I was talking about tua?
- [03:34]
Simon Hunter
No, because it happened Tuesday. Interesting lock in, buddy. Gotta lock in.
- [03:41]
Chad Mullen
My week is all screwed up, right? Because I was in Vegas Monday, Tuesday, you fly back all day Wednesday and like you lose track of everything when you're in Vegas. Especially when like you're. You're just being bombarded by the bright lights late into the evening. So I don't know what day it was. I woke up this morning and like I couldn't even figure out what city I was in.
- [04:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just know because I basically got crushed by a bunch of pro betters because I just couldn't be the man and say Simon says give me Cincinnati plus one and now they are minus four and a half. So bad. Bad miss by me. And I, I don't know why. I was just, I was spooked up by the line. I couldn't get, I couldn't get why I was moving, why people are hammering Miami. So that's when I'm happy. I put a penny on it at Hard Rock, but obviously hindsight. I think 30 minutes after our show ended, the two news got that when it happened. Yeah. And it moved four points. So yeah, that pretty shocking lineman. Miami plus four and a half now against Cincinnati.
- [04:41]
Chad Mullen
All right, well, we know that one won't be in the contest. This is our Thursday Week 16 episode. We are going to narrow down to our final five now that we've got more information about injury news, line movements, etc, etc, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week we give out our picks. Every week your fellow Professional, better assignment call to critique, give us positive affirmation, negative feedback. Whatever the case, it's time to summarize those opinions. Let's do short calls.
- [05:19]
Simon Hunter
I have to answer this phone. Once again, we'll start with the Thursday game. I knew it. I knew that the Los Angeles side was a super public side. I just did not see the love by the professionals. And they're. They're coming on the Seahawks side. So this is my favorite. These guys think they're professionals, but they're actually frauds. Type of game where they're. Yeah, we know we're doing taking Seattle here. This is a fishy line. And we were hammered. And I'm happy with. I'm getting the Rams the dog down. I'll be with the public. I'll walk into the trap if this is one. And yeah, this is a game I don't know if we're gonna talk more about, but tons of love pros on the Seahawks and I just do not, do not see what they're seeing. But these, these games happen, right? It's divisional games. It's really tough to be your divisional opponent two times in a row. So I get their love for Seattle. I just, I think the hype is way too much for backing Sam Darnold in this spot. But that was the first game that really jumped out the Saturday games. I thought it was gonna be all love for Green Bay. Tons of really respected guys I know on the Bears and they flipped me. I'm actually on the Bear side now where I, I wanted to get there. I didn't want to be on Green Bay. Just like there was something I'm missing. But that was a really interesting game and obviously that commander's game. Tons of love for Washington. We knew that that was going to be a pros versus Joes and probably keep hammering this Eagle side and that number is not budging. I was hoping we're going to get seven. Like I just said, the professionals, they really like Washington. So that number is going to hold there. And moving to the Sunday games, you know, not as much love. I was hoping for my Giants love. I do have some pros with me on the Giant side. It's just not as locked in like say that Washington game is. Which is all professionals on that one side. Tennessee. A game I'm just not seeing tons of pros love that the number has fallen. So maybe I can allow myself said, well, we already missed the best number. Let's not bet it. Anyway, I got some thoughts.
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Chad Mullen
I got some thoughts.
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Simon Hunter
Okay. I'M just, I'm not there. You were right about Dallas. The pros love Dallas. Another game. I think I blind spot to and been talked into a little bit. It's just, I can't believe it. There are good trends and numbers, underlying numbers for Dallas here in the spot, but I still can't believe they want to fade Herbert. I mean, this is what, three straight weeks of fading. This guy's a dog. So very unique spot. And you know, again, we talked a little bit about. I kind of love Pittsburgh. Every pro I've talked, he was all over the line. So I understand now why that line's been bed up so heavily. It feels like every pro I know is on that side. On the flip side, most public people I've talked to, it feels like they're on the Pittsburgh side. So that's a really unique one. And you know, the final two games we talked about, you know, we both love New England. Every pro I've talked to for the most part loves it. There are some pros on the Ravens, right? This is a unique spot of a team that's been there before in the Ravens for the veteran quarterback base of team that has not been there before and that just blew a 21 point lead. So I get it. Maybe I'm leaking a little bit on the Patriots, but I still think the number is inflated and the Ravens are an overrated team. And the last one, we talked a little bit about it. We like the, we like the 49ers. All the pros I've talked to for most part like the Colts. But honestly, even if we're walking to a trap there, Chad, I still think it's a good spot for this 49ers team. I just, I don't know how the Colts offense keeps up with this 49ers offense, which is just fully healthy right now. And they're, they're a machine. When they got all their guys back, you see with Purdy, they're just unstoppable. So really fun games to break down this week and you know, a lot of prime time games to talk about. It wasn't so much the 1pms or 4pm it was really felt like all the primetime games, the pros are hidden. So really fun week.
- [08:46]
Chad Mullen
All right, let's get into it. Let's start to break them down first before we get into the games. Quick announcement. We saw there was an issue seeing the overall leaderboard for the sharp or square pro football pick them contest. The free contest at sharper square.the volume.com. this has been fixed. So here is the announcement of the season. Long standing leaders. Right now, three players are at the top with a perfect 10. And oh, start. Congrats to Jack Mack, DM 613 shooter neuter. There are still seven long weeks left, so it's anybody's game. All right, I, I do want to talk about the Rams in Seattle just for a minute. This line has moved. It flipped from Seattle's a one point underdog to now Seattle's a one and a half point favorite. Look, Puka, Puka, Puka, Puka, Puka. What are you doing? Two weeks ago it was Puka live streaming from the locker room, which is a no, no for the Rams. And then he's getting yelled at by veteran players. This week it's Puka going on another live stream as a guest with some popular streamers saying NFL refs are the worst. They just want to get on tv. They're just lawyers who want to tell their friends, hey, check this out. I'm going to call a pass interference and I'm going to be on tv. What, why is, why is Puka turning into a distraction? What is, what is he doing?
- [10:31]
Simon Hunter
I mean, the simpler version of it, and this is a guy that, what did he go to college at Utah. And, and now he's at la. And he was a quiet, shy little boy, but he's come out, and he's come out of his closet. He's 24 now, so he's young, dumb, in LA and the second best, third best receiver in football right now, stat wise, so his head can't get any bigger. I mean, this guy, he's in that mode where he. Everything he thinks, everything he says he thinks is the right truth. I think the dumbest thing I saw, he said, vegetables give you inflation, which could be true, but just wait, wait.
- [11:06]
Chad Mullen
Inflation or inflammation, whatever it was, I.
- [11:10]
Simon Hunter
Don'T know, I heard, I was just like, I don't know what Puka's talking about. I'm like, you, I'm like, I wish he got off these shows and just, you know, listen to his head coach who told him these guys can't come to the facility. Like he didn't want him to do those interviews with those kids on their live stream. And, you know, there's just nothing to gain from other than his, you know, up, up in the level of his notoriety on that community of like, you know, non sports fans. Right? These are video game people, I'm assuming, who watch these streamers. So maybe that's his idea, right? Get a new fan bases for himself. But it's a distraction like you said, the Rams don't need. Do I think it affected the spread? No, I think the spread was affected by devonte Adams injury. But yeah, not the best start for the Rams where they had that drama and then their flight was delayed, I believe, getting into Seattle. So a lot of negatives to start for the, the Rams in this matchup. Chad, I agree with you on that.
- [11:59]
Chad Mullen
But it doesn't change your opinion.
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Simon Hunter
No, this just feels like again, it's, it's all about picking your spots. But like I'm not, I'm not going to force this one to our contest obviously, but it just feels like a little overreaction to the Seattle thing where it feels like the most pros I've talked to, they. They think they have to beat Seattle here and that this is a really tough spot for the Rams to be backing them. And you know, my mindset is it doesn't, doesn't this line just seem a little fishy to you? I, I just can't get over where. I don't know, is Seattle really a one and a half point favorite. But I told you, I'm too biased, I think with this Rams team and.
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Chad Mullen
Well, you love the Rams all season and you've had them higher rated than anybody else all season. So now they're living up to your rating. And the Seahawks, look, they're. They haven't looked good, right? Like Sam Darnold. They, they nearly lost to a grandfather, literally.
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Simon Hunter
Which again, it's another reason I back them because it's like those are the things we like. We like backing the teams that look bad that we know are really good, facing a team that, you know, might have had their best game of the season. That was an incredible comeback by the Rams in a really tough spot on a short week now. But I keep going back to all these McVeigh stats. That's what like I keep, I can't get over how incredible McVeigh has been this late in the year. And you know, I can read it to people again if they want to hear it. The McVeigh 2811 straight up 2711 in the month of December in his career against the spread since 2021, he's 173 against the spread in the month of December. So, you know, we already know he owns the Seahawks. Like he just. I think this year they didn't cover. We, we definitely bet that. The Rams, I believe, were two and a half point favorites. They were up 14, I believe in the, in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks backdoored it. They. They lost by two. So they covered the number they lost by two in a game that they. I just felt like the Rams were way better. So like I said, if you, if you want to follow what I call the fake sharps, they're going to be on the Seahawks this week and I think the Rams, it's going to be the spot. So I'm interested to see where this one goes. Like I said, it's. It's a game where maybe I am too close to this Rams team. I love them too much, but I just can't believe people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this divisional game. And like I told you, Chad, there's a lot of really interesting stats about backing McVeigh in this type of spot and he actually does really well in short weeks. On the flip side, you know, this Seahawks team, since they, since they faced the Rams, it's obviously been different coaches, different quarterbacks. They're owing three in the spot of facing the Rams on short week where the Rams tend to play really well in their. And the biggest one that jumped out to me is I talked to you about the home field advantage for the Seahawks. That's been irrelevant since like 2015. They actually have a losing record at home and against the spread at home and this exact spot. So a short week that's facing a divisional opponent that's above.500. They're 0 and 6 in this spot. Seattle Seahawks since 2020. So again, it's. Even with their head coach. He's been there. He's 02 in this spot. So it's not a good spot historically for Seattle. And on the flip side, like I said, McVay, he dominates these late season. He's just such a prepared coach and you know, another distraction could be had a baby. I love that kind of stuff. Like that's. Those are my favorite things where coaches or players have babies and I bet on them anytime. Touchdowns, obviously I can't do that McVeigh, but I will be taking his side here. But like I said, it's a game that luckily we can't put in our contest because I'm, I'm confident in it. But I think I might be blinded to my love of this Rams team.
- [15:32]
Chad Mullen
All right, that's enough. On a Thursday night game that 10 people are going to get to hear the show and then actually bet on Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our brass balls bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [16:02]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
- [16:07]
Chad Mullen
Look, I'm, I'm kind of taking your lead on this because you know the Eagles as well as anybody, and you were leaning commanders on Tuesday. And when we talked about it before we came on the show, we. I, I presented three games that I could have thought could be brass balls contenders, and the only one that we felt really comfortable with was Washington. Wayne Johnson's still out. I think that matters. The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota, which we've been saying for the past few weeks. Jalen Carter will still be out. I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback. And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you're fading a team. We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out. And all of a sudden people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in Sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well. The real wise guys, not the fake wise guys.
- [17:13]
Simon Hunter
It's true, though. It's. It feels like inflated line. I had this model at 4, and it's not shocking, though. If I was the general public and didn't have a model and know much about it, why wouldn't I bet the Eagles here, right? They looked incredible. They look like they got things right. And we've talked about they're a team that if they can figure out that offense, why would they not be the number two or number three, best team in the nfc? So this is obviously two teams that are going totally different directions. The commanders, like we've said, they're. They're shut down their star quarterback, you know, how motivated would they be, blah, blah, blah. I think that's why the public is just coming in so heavier. I don't know about you, but most books I've looked at or talked to, it's like 80% to 90% of all the money. All the bets are coming on this Eagles team.
- [17:55]
Chad Mullen
Yeah, that's why it's so surprising to me. It hasn't moved to seven. That's clearly sort of resistance coming from the professionals.
- [18:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it could be part of it. It's also, I think the books, too, are just like they, they're like what we're thinking here is just who. Who are the Eagles to be catching seven against a divisional opponent like this, where.
- [18:12]
Chad Mullen
Who are the super bowl champions to be catching seven. But I get it. Like they haven't looked like the super bowl champions at all.
- [18:20]
Simon Hunter
No, it's like, it's the. They haven't had a horrible season like the Chiefs have had, but it's been close to it. Like they've. It could have. It could have fallen apart. A bunch of different spots here. So this is just a bet for the Eagles to prove it to me. Right. And you know, we always talk about the numbers with Hertz. There's some real numbers here to fade Hurts, especially when it comes to this late in the season, in December, he is great, usually against the spread to start the year, but then the public keeps betting him falling more in love with him and the number goes too far. And we've seen that now through his early career because the Eagles obviously every year he's been a starter, he's made the playoffs, right. And he's kind of been in that spot where, you know, not the last two years or not last year, but the year before, they totally fell off. So that's why these numbers are skewed a little bit. His December's numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later hurts 5 and 7 against the spread. When he faces the NFC east, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread. So we talked about it. He just gets inflated in our division. I mean Eagles division, historically, it's kind of been a bottom feeding division right there. Usually two teams really good and the other two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that for his whole career these last four or five years for hurts. So even against bad teams in his division in December, he's struggled. It's been very bizarre. And another stat I really loved was the Eagles were a double digit favorite last week. Hertz, for some reason, he's horrible at games following being a double digit favorite. So when he's a double digit favorite Hurts, he's 3 and 6 against the spread in this following game. It just shows they usually blow teams out, live up to it in the final game. They have a letdown game. So I've seen that time and time again. And on the flip side, Dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton of grief. I just don't think he's that good of a head coach. But as a dog, he's been great, especially at covering 7 to 4 against the spread in this exact spot, 3 and 1 in his own division. So, you know, we like Dan Quinn. We like the numbers when he's back in his own division as a dog. It's just when he's a favorite, I really couldn't get over how much overrated he was. So we talked. We knew Washington was coming back down to earth this year. Felix. They have, but they feel like the the public has totally left them for dead and happened last week they were hammering the Giants team. Like you just said, that number didn't budge last week. It's happening once again. The public is hammering the opposite side of the commander side and it's not budged. So for both of us, I think we'd feel much better. We wake up Saturday and this number's five and a half because it's like, okay, at least some real professional money is coming and we both have the best number. But even this gets the seven, I'm still going to back this Washington team come Saturday.
- [20:44]
Chad Mullen
All right, Washington Commanders brass balls better the week look, talk about teams that as the season goes on historically are bigger and bigger favorites and the quarterback ends up not being as good against the spread because of it. That has been the Kansas city chiefs since 2018. Now Patrick Mahomes is out. Kansas City has gone from ostensibly eleven and a half when he was playing against Tennessee Titans to four and a half down to three and a half. Now it's down to three in the contest. It's currently three and a half. So I want to have this conversation thinking about the three and a half and the three. I think there are so many issues for the Chiefs right now beyond Mahomes. Right. They are missing so many offensive linemen and we were on the Chiefs last week. They lost that game because they couldn't protect Mahomes, obviously. But they're also down Hollywood Brown this week. Rasheed Rice. Will he play again? Will he play? Coming off the concussion, we don't know. They're already having a hard time getting any kind of explosive runs. We know the Titans have been covering being more competitive. I mean, all of a sudden the Titans look attractive to me.
- [22:12]
Simon Hunter
So you know what to do. People hammer the Kansas City Chiefs. I know what you want from I'm not, I'm not going to let us put in the contest regardless. Maybe if it was four and a half Tennessee, which was to me that was where the Sharps really made their statement. That was the Sharp number. But you are betting into a bad number and what feels like a bad spot. The under still looks good. Under is 37 and a half. Like you just said. I don't know how the Chiefs are going to score. I still don't know how Tennessee is going to score. This is still a spag defense that as bad as the Chiefs have been, the defense has been pretty good, right? It's really the offense I've disappointed this season for this Chiefs team. So I get where you're coming from, Chad. You're with all the pros. They're all over it. I think the public are with you too. Like I don't see the public betting minshew as a favorite in this spot so I don't know what to do with this one. I'm hope I'm happy just to avoid it if I can.
- [22:58]
Chad Mullen
Maybe a little taste of the Titans on the money line.
- [23:02]
Simon Hunter
Do your thing, whatever you want to do.
- [23:06]
Chad Mullen
Well, your lack of support, unlike a really ugly dog, is shocking to me. The whole Titan Titans voodoo has gotten into your head. It's totally in your head right now.
- [23:20]
Simon Hunter
I just, I don't want to be there. I honestly don't want to be there with them. Like last week, not watching a second of their game was very, very nice. It was enjoyable.
- [23:27]
Chad Mullen
It was enjoyable, right?
- [23:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [23:28]
Chad Mullen
To not to think that they just didn't exist was people pleasure if a.
- [23:33]
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- [24:03]
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Simon Hunter
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Simon Hunter
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- [26:41]
Podcast Announcer
Have you been scrolling through TikTok live lately? Well, buckle up because the biggest creator celebration of the year just kicked off. Live Fest 2025 is officially here, uniting creators from every corner of the world. We're talking singers hitting high notes, dancers dropping choreo, gamers going head to head, all on their way to trophies, stacked rewards and a red carpet moment waiting for them at the annual awards ceremony. You might even find your new new go to recipe from a home cook or a new Internet bestie who is always there for you. Anything can happen here. And that's the magic of TikTok Live. From December 10th to 22nd, Live Fest is going full throttle. Creators of every kind are stepping into the spotlight with performances, challenges, battles and big community moments. So dive in, show support and help lift up the creators who inspire you, whether you are a fan or a creator. Search hashtag live fest2025 on TikTok to catch everything happening during Live Fest. Let's celebrate live together.
- [27:42]
Chad Mullen
Minnesota -3 at the New York Giants betting the Giants +3 with Simon says I hope everyone is better because this line is going to move to two and a half because it looks like the money is coming in on the Giants again. I don't think there are metrics to make us feel better about this one. It's really about fading a quarterback who until two weeks ago people were trying to figure out what their option was going to be next year in Minnesota to replace JJ McCarthy and how bad they must feel that they don't have Sam Darnold, that they didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins. And then the guy beats up on two bad defenses in the Commanders and the Cowboys and all of a sudden he's a three point road favorite. That's what we're fading here and that's why Simon says and that's why we bet it and that's why it'll be in the contest.
- [28:35]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, like you just, you nailed it. It's, it's such a nice spot to fade the Vikings and we actually do have data backing it up that you know the Vikings in such an emotional spot. That which that really was the Vikings playing in Dallas on Sunday night last week. It's been unique this season. So teams basically playing in Dallas, then on the road the next game after playing Dallas, their own six against the spread this season and you can be like, okay, that's not that big of a deal. That's kind of just this season in a nutshell. But it really does feel like it kind of tends to that game. Right. That was such an emotional win. And you go back through a lot of Dallas games this year. They all, they most for the most part have been really close, high emotional games for a lot of these teams. So it makes sense there are letdowns in the following games. And you know the, the ones that dropped out, dropped out to me is just the season teams that play in Dallas and then go on the road the next game, they're failing to cover by almost 11 points per game. And then next game, like that's not a small margin. That's a really big gap that shows there is a let down. And you know the Vikings, I had a couple reach out to Me. Is there really anything to dive into about the Vikings being an indoor team now, going to play outdoors in the cold? You shake your head. There actually is, Chad. Like, they're not a outdoor type of team. In December or later. They are 611 against the spread and they've been covering by failing to cover by five points per game in those exact spots. So it does prove out that they're not a cold weather type of team. Right. They are a dome team. And now they're going outside to play a Giants team that, you know, they've been playing in the elements. They're used to it. So that is something. Another part you can take away for this Giants team. But at the end of the day, my biggest thing I'm taking away from is just the matchup. I think JJ is going to struggle with this type of defense the Giants have, which is a very fast front that can give him problems because we've seen that these, those teams you just talked about, they don't have any pass rush to get after them. And JJ looked so comfortable passing against those type of teams because he had no pressure in his face. We've seen him struggle this year. It's when he has to move outside the pocket, the plays break down. That's when JJ struggles. So I'm back in the Giants here and like you said, it's about the number. The number is coming down. So I'm happy to see the pros are joining me on it. It's a big split game, so the public, I think it's like 90, 80 of the tickets right now or on the Minnesota Vikings, but 70% of the money is coming in on the Giants. So that just shows this is going to be a pros versus Joe's type of game. So I am shocked to see it's coming down, but not shocked to see the pros line up on this one. Just feels like a very nice spot to back this Giants team.
- [30:54]
Chad Mullen
Well, look, the one thing we got to consider is that it's two and a half in the contest. So do we still want to play it if it's two and a half in the contest? Because that's what it's going to be.
- [31:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I mean, it's. It's tough. Like I. I got. I let that scare me last week with the Saints and we ate it on that one. So it's going to be a tough choice to make.
- [31:13]
Chad Mullen
I can't believe that the Minnesota Vikings are an indoor team. It just disappoints me. I think what the Bills are doing your future, buddy. I know. That's what I was going to say. Like, what the Bills are doing is amazing. They're built, they're leaning into their attitude. And I'm seeing all this stuff about the Bears and whether they're building in the suburbs or now they're thinking Gary, Indiana. Let me tell you something. I'm already upset that the Bills might build a dome stadium just so Chicago can get a Super Bowl. I get it. I get it. But, like, you don't understand how much of a part of the personality of being a Bears fan and sitting outside and being an outdoor team and being built for December and what this and what Caleb Williams calls ball weather, that's an advantage. And like, all of a sudden, if the Bills. If the Bears build a dome, three of the four teams in their division now have domes, and only Green Bay won't it actually, it's so disappointing to me. I. I can't believe it. And let's not even start about Indiana. Like, obviously, I went to Indiana University. I have so many friends who are from Indiana in college, some of them from, like, northwest Indiana, like, you know, outside, like, Munster, Indiana and whatever, and they would say to live closer to Chicago than you do, and they try to claim that they're from Chicago. I'm like, dude, you're from Indiana. So if the Bears go to Indiana, I am just going to be. They're losing all their character. You build a dome stadium in Indiana, you might as well be the Colts.
- [32:48]
Simon Hunter
Now, it would be not only a. Embarrassing as an organization, but like you said, that's such a part of the city. The culture, just the whole area being a Bear weather, just like. Like you. Like when I thought there was even a chance of the Bills but a dome stadium, I literally got sick to my stomach. I feel the same way thinking about the Bears and it just. The underlying problem of this country, at the end of the day, it's all about the money.
- [33:13]
Chad Mullen
All about money.
- [33:15]
Simon Hunter
I hate.
- [33:15]
Chad Mullen
So upsetting. Yeah, it's so. There's no culture left. There's no character left. Character is the person you put on the dollar bill. It's just upsetting. I was gonna talk about the jets, but I don't even want to. There's nothing to say.
- [33:31]
Simon Hunter
No, I'm. Yeah, like, I'm still on the jets, but I'm with you. It's like a bet that I feel like I have to make, but everyone knows my position. I am all in on shuck. I've basically hit up every family member of my family and being like, hey if this guy hits, I'll buy you something nice. Coming in January, like that's how all in I am just because I want to get as much good vibes I can behind this kid. And I think social media is coming a long way. I rarely saw post about him. Now it feels like every day I'm seeing stuff pop up of these like, you know, YouTube commentators or whatever. Just talking about how good he's looked and how, you know, like I've talked about they he came and he won two straight divisional games on a saint scene that was just left for dead. So the, the shuck hype. I don't need to keep hyping up anymore. It's. It's going global now, Chad. We're getting there.
- [34:12]
Chad Mullen
It's global. Buffalo, Cleveland, back in the day. Look, we auto played Cleveland at home. They're a 10 point underdog. Even a few weeks ago against the Titans we would have not hesitated on this one. But then you made all these points about how bad the defense has been playing. The way they looked against the Titans at home. They've got an offensive line that is decimated. So now they've got a quarterback. I don't know how they're going to score enough points. Like if, if Buffalo scores a touchdown and two field goals, they win this game. And it worries me betting on this offense to try to find a way to cover the back door when I don't know if they're going to be able to.
- [34:52]
Simon Hunter
So let's lose money on the Bears then. I mean not Bears, the Bills then Chad. That's the move. The move is for us to back the Bills. We know we knew there's something off with this line because we should love it. And I'm like you like as soon as I saw this one, it's like what am I missing here? And a game that obviously I want to dive in the numbers on. Just because when you, when you do think of Josh Allen, this spot, I, I remember the back of my thinking, well, isn't this the type of team that Josh Allen does beat up on? Because he wasn't. He wouldn't overlook such a great defense like especially a defense with Miles Garrett and shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams. He had some amazing stats about this exact spot. So when Josh Allen plays a defense that is allowing less than 20 points per game, Allen in his career, 28 and nine against the spread.
- [35:35]
Chad Mullen
No. Yeah.
- [35:36]
Simon Hunter
And when he's facing a team that allows more than 28 points per game, Josh Allen is 8 and 11 in his career against the spread. So how bizarre is that? He doesn't cover against teams that give up a ton of points, but teams that are very stingy defensively. He is unbelievable against them.
- [35:52]
Chad Mullen
That's crazy.
- [35:53]
Simon Hunter
It's the best mark of any quarterback since 03. So like it's a huge outlier. But we always talk about Josh Allens that guy, where it's like, you find this type of stats, lean into it. I'm not going to fight it here. Like, I wanted to be on the Browns, but once I saw that stat it's like, okay, he tends to show up. And even more. There are even more crazy numbers. So since 2010, the Bills have been listed against the Browns five meetings. They're 5, 0 straight up in those games, winning by more than seven. The, you know, the Browns are a big home dog. So, you know, we've seen home dogs this year covering right. I think they're 11 and 6 against the spread, these big home dogs. So, okay, maybe we need to lean into it and just blindly bet the home dog, which is what me and Chad usually want to do. But when I saw those Josh Allen numbers, it's like, okay, this guy blows up these really bad teams and you know, is there a letdown after playing New England? No. Josh Allen on the road after facing New England patriots, he is 10 and 5 against the spread against outside divisional opponents. So plays divisional teams. You think there'd be a let down the following game. There isn't. He's 10 and 5 against the spread in those exact games covered by almost four points per game. So a lot of just underlying numbers that like us and we already talked like the Bills and the one we already talked about, the biggest one that jumped out to me is the Bills top three, top two, whatever you want to put them as best running team in football. This Browns team has struggled against their run these last couple of weeks. And that's what's really jumped out to me is that was what they were so dominant at. They were so great against the run. And their secondary we talked about is really good. So it was like, okay, that's why their Browns are stealing these games early in the year. Team's going to run against them, they had to pass. And that's what the Browns wanted you to do because they're going to get you to turn the ball over. So looking at this matchup, I think, you know, Cook might have 13 rushing touchdowns, Josh Allen might have 12 rushing touchdowns. It's like this is the juggernaut of a rushing team. They just, once they get to the red area, the red zone, they just score rushing touchdowns. And the Browns have struggled in that exact spot. So it feels like this is actually a Bills. I can't believe it. Bill's minus 10.
- [37:53]
Chad Mullen
I'm shocked.
- [37:54]
Simon Hunter
I know.
- [37:55]
Chad Mullen
I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it, because I didn't want to bet the Browns.
- [38:00]
Simon Hunter
And even if we lose, at least we'll be like, well, at least we lost on Josh Allen.
- [38:04]
Coca Cola Advertiser
I don't know.
- [38:04]
Chad Mullen
Right.
- [38:06]
Simon Hunter
Sanders. I mean, I can't do it.
- [38:07]
Chad Mullen
I can't. I. That's why I said historically this would have been an autop play and we haven't done it and there's something that's holding us back and I think you just nailed it.
- [38:19]
Simon Hunter
So that 289 stat's crazy.
- [38:22]
Chad Mullen
I kind, I, I kind of like the idea of having the Bills as a big favorite on the road against the Browns in the contest for us. It feels very contrarian.
- [38:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I mean, it'll be ten and a half, but I wouldn't mind having that discussion Sunday morning. I bet it as soon as I saw those numbers, it's like, all right, I'll take a position as. Because Hard Rock. There's only one other book at the 10, so if you want the 10, unfortunately for you, if you don't have a Hard Rock, you're probably not going to find it. Most other books have already moved at ten and a half, so it'll be interesting if the pros do bet it down. I just think, I don't know how many pros are gonna be taking big stands here with Shador Sanders in this defense that might have given up on the season.
- [38:55]
Chad Mullen
Yep, Jacksonville plus three at Denver. No team in the NFL has been luckier than one of the teams playing in this contest. Simon, which team has been the luckiest team?
- [39:13]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I know I want to say Jags, but Denver feel like Denver's been pretty lucky.
- [39:17]
Chad Mullen
Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos were losing that game against the Packers. If Micah Parsons doesn't go out, if their offensive line talent doesn't go out, if Christian Watson doesn't go out, teams that are on an 11 game winning streak, 14:36 and two against spread in the following game. After the 11th game, all the talk about Liam Con and Trevor Lawrence to me, don't forget, and I've said this for the past four weeks, the difference in this offense has been Jacobe Myers giving them that possession type receiver who can run the routes across the field like that's the guy that has been missing. I'm a little nervous back in a Trevor Lawrence that coming off of a career game when the vibes are so good on the road in altitude against this defense. It's a big number for a game in a team that against the Broncos has been winning those one score games in the way they lost them. There's got to be some regression coming.
- [40:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah and I couldn't believe that I liked even like the Jaguars were most pros I've talked to. They like Denver, they're just avoiding this game. I think it's what the public sentiment is, right. It's how can you trust Trevor Lawrence on the road possibly in the cold in this spot against the Denver's defense that what do they have 58 sacks this season? They've been absolutely dominant defense obviously. And you know Bo Nix, that was an incredible game. Like you said that there is a world where maybe yes Green Bay does win it, but Bo Nick's playing that way. They're going to be a really tough team to beat when he's playing at that type of level. Right. His he's just so good moving outside the pocket and throwing the ball downfield. But we've seen him dirt plenty of balls into the grass, right. We've seen it when those those outside the pocket rollouts are not hitting. And to me the biggest difference here is what I've talked about. Like I feel like the Jags have a legit run game and on the flip side Denver, you know Harvey's tried his best but you know, they lose. J.K. dobbins, the run game has not been the same to me for this Denver's team and you know Jaguars quietly have one of the best defenses in all football. I don't believe they've given up even 100 yard carrier this season. Like teams have not been to run the ball against this Jags team, which makes sense, right? They've had tons of years here drafted the top of the draft. They've just been drafting D lineman and it's worked out like they are really stout against the run. And you know looking at all the trends and everything like that, the first one I want to go to is how is Bo Nix off that type of game? You know a game where he throws three touchdowns, no interceptions. He looks so incredible. It's very small sample. Right. He's had a very small NFL career. He's 3 and 4 straight up against the spread in the following game after that type of performance. Okay. Not much to take away from it. I just wanted to give that out there what he's like after having such an incredible performance. The Jags, on the flip side, they've been really impressive with Trevor Lawrence off of those type of wins. Doesn't matter who that coach is. In his whole career, he's been great when you back him after those type of wins and just going through the numbers when he goes off a win that his team wins by more than 10 points or more in his career. The following game he's 104 against the spread. Trevor Lawrence, which again, small sample, that was really impressive to me. The biggest one too is the fact they scored 48 points. This Jaguars team, it's like, okay, that's an insane amount of points. You expect teams that naturally have letdowns after those type of games since 2000, teams that score 48 points in the previous game, November or later, 59, 42 against the spread. So, oh, wow. Yeah, a shockingly autoplay type of spot for these type of teams where it just shows maybe early in the year, it's kind of fluky. November or later, this is who you are. Like your offense doesn't matter if you're playing the shitty teams, you're legit. Like you. You put up those type of numbers where they have that much film on you. It's really impressive. We've been, you know, beating the bush how impressive we've been with Liam Cohen. But it's really a Trevor Lawrence stat. Like the fact that he these last couple weeks. I know it's not great teams, but he's been playing really good ball. So, you know, I might be stepping right into a chat. I know that I'm back in Trevor Lawrence on the road here against a really great Denver defense. But I'm interested to see how this Denver team does. I do think this Jaguar team, just by the general public too, is being underrated. I mean, Puka. Speaking of Puka, I saw a clip of him, another clip of him saying, who's the biggest flaw flawed team in the afc? First team popped up, second in Jaguars. He's like, they are frauds. They're going to get rolled in round one. So not even the general public thinks the Jags are frauds. They're his own peers in the league. Do not believe in this Jaguars team. So, you know, interesting number. I thought we were. I thought today we'd have three and a half because I thought the pros would come in heavy on this Denver team. It's either them and dip on their toes a Little bit on Denver. They've been avoiding it. So this number is not budged. So I, I am confident this Jaguars team, but for contest play for us, I would have two and a half. It has. Yeah, it has to be three and a half.
- [44:02]
Chad Mullen
Well, the contest, it is three and a half.
- [44:04]
Simon Hunter
So I would. I'd lock that in now. And just in case, because I. I'm issue what the pros do for us. I could see this being two and a half by kickoff. I do see professional money coming on this Jaguars team.
- [44:12]
Chad Mullen
Las Vegas Raiders are minus or plus 14 against the Houston Texans. Simon, this is the buy low sell high spot of the year.
- [44:26]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God.
- [44:28]
Chad Mullen
Okay, what do we do when a team gets shut out? What do we do the next week?
- [44:33]
Simon Hunter
I know what I do. I don't know what you do. What do you do?
- [44:35]
Chad Mullen
We bet on the team that got shut out.
- [44:37]
Simon Hunter
Good, man.
- [44:38]
Chad Mullen
So the Las Vegas Raiders at plus 14 and a half in the contest. We got to put them in.
- [44:45]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. If we can't find a fifth one, we can do it. But it's. We're simply betting this because of the trends in the numbers. And just.
- [44:52]
Chad Mullen
I got news for you, buddy. We're not going to find a fifth one.
- [44:55]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. We might. I have games I like. I'm just lukewarm on them right now because it's just. It's such funky lines. We just. I feel like this is the most threes we've had all season. Like there's just six games. We're just. There's hanging threes and it's like. I just don't know what to do with them. But this game here, like you said, the, the trends, obviously they love this Raiders team. Like you already gave out that one. They got shut out the previous week before this season. Team got shut out the week before 6, 0 against the spread. You know, it's a great lazy stat like we talk about. We love those type of stats. And the team that fits our description this week, it's the Raiders in Cincinnati and one team's lines move three points. The Raiders line has moved the other way for three points, right? I think it was 11 or 11 and a half. Now it is 14, 14 and a half. And it's a unique spot, right? This Texans team, like you said, they are a juggernaut. Their last loss was a game we bet them on, right? The game they should have won against Denver and CJ got knocked out of. Since then, they've won six straight and since CJ's come back, I mean last week that was to me CJ's best game this season that looked like CJ from rookie year. Just incredibly disciplined downfield throws right on target, just in total, total unison. And you know the underlying numbers here. Let's dive into it. Six game win streak for Texans teams is the exact spot. They're 11 and 16 against the spread since 2003 when they are double digit favorites in this exact spot, they are 2 and 7 against the spread. So a very unique rare spot where like Chad just said, the numbers, they're telling you you're supposed to back the Raiders here and I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you. But I bet the Raiders I've taken the numbers and it doesn't matter to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know you look horrible against Eagles obviously last week. But even as bad as he looked, him and Gino Smith, there truly is no difference. Like it really there is not. So we'll see who the quarterback is, Chad, and maybe that will dictate our decision. But I have no problem locking this in at 14 and a half. And if it is Geno and it drops down to 13 or 12, at least we have good value. We can lie to ourselves. We have to keep them in there. But I'm just, I'm just scared because I just don't trust this Raiders team right now. Just, I think I saw some crazy stat. They had been shut out three times in the previous like 40 years. They've been shut out twice this season. So it's like, it's just all negative. And you know, we talk all the time, one bad GM eight years ago can seek your organization for the next 20 years. We are living it with Madoc and Gruden. Just TV figures brought into an organization that have just derailed and train wrecked this team in so many different ways. So yeah, it's, it's bad, bad right now for this Raiders team.
- [47:35]
Chad Mullen
Go Raiders. Plus 14 and a half New England. This was Chad's choice. The money's moving it in the direction of the Patriots. It was three. It's now two and a half. We can get it three and a half in the contest, so we might want to lock that in as well. We're bouncing on a Mike Vrabel. We're betting on a Mike Vrabel. Bounce back here. I know there's, there's trends that say the Ravens are getting a little bit better. And you could look at what happened this past weekend in a big win against the Bengals and say Lamar Jackson started to look a little bit more comfortable. Obviously they've got to win out in order to keep up with the Steelers and then beat the Steelers in the final week of the season to make the playoffs. But. And you can make all the cases about how bad the quarterbacks have been that the Patriots have played and they just played a MVP candidate and blew up a blue or blew a 21 point lead. So now they're going on the road to Baltimore. Tough spot to play. But the money's moving the the line in the favor of the Patriots and I think that's why we're playing them. Yeah.
- [48:46]
Simon Hunter
And like you said, it's the only thing that scares me about this spot is just our bias to Lamar Jackson because it's there. We've had what, five, six years of him in this exact spot where he dominates. And that's what makes him so special and unique. Like he is another quarterback. Like I Talked about that McVeigh stat about being in December, how dominate is Lamar is the same guy like Lamar in his career weeks 15 and 16, 16, 0 straight up in his career. He's never lost in these two weeks. So that just shows why he's been the MVP multiple times and why, you know, I love on the guy for his playoff letdowns because it's like this. It's like, dude, how are you so dominant in one of the toughest months and then just clay eggs come January. So the data I tried to dive into finding some nuggets to give me some hope on this Patriots team. It is hard because it's. Well we've talked about, right? It's a new young team. May has not been in this scenario, right. He's not played legit playoff games and that that last game felt like the first legit playoff game. He played great in the first half. Totally in his own head. No showed us in the second half, right. He just was totally out of rhythm. Never got into a rhythm that second half. And he got lucky. Trivia Henderson saved, kind of saved the day, right? Had a couple huge runs that kept him in the game. But Drake on third down. I don't know about you, but watch that Bills game. I wanted to be passing on third downs. I was like, he's not going to complete these. This kid is not ready for this moment. This is going to be the ultimate test for him. And it really, to me it's not so much a bet on him, it's really a bet on variable which we've been talking about all season. Anytime I Patriots team, it's like, is this a variable spot? And you know, variable in this exact spot. So coming off a really bad loss in his career, right. This is just his career variable. 24:18 off a loss as a head coach of the Patriots or the Titans. So it's pretty impressive this season. He's 2, 0 straight up. I guess the spread off a loss this season, obviously haven't lost much this season, but he tends to get his guys ready to bounce back in this game. And you know Lamar, like I gave you that stat, how incredible he's been. You know, he used to be dominant night games. He was incredible. I think before this season he's 20 and 5 in night games. Coming to the season this year he's one and three straight up in night games. So like we always talk about these, eventually these stats start going the other way. And that's why I think we're backing on here because I, I don't see it. I think the Patriots are honestly a better team, more complete team, this Ravens team. And the only thing for me that gives me pause is the Ravens have the pedigree. Right. They've been there before. They've been in these spots. So really love unique spot. Love this numbering. Yeah. Hard Rock has two and a half. Every other book is still a three for the Patriots. So like Chad said, if you can go get the Patriots now, I'm with you. I think the pros come in back the Patriots and bet this number down. So three is such a key number. I want people to get it before it does move to two and a half.
- [51:26]
Chad Mullen
All right, so what am I missing right now if I'm talking Cowboys? Well, the number moved and so, you know, that scared us.
- [51:36]
Simon Hunter
That scared you off, that one point movement.
- [51:38]
Chad Mullen
I don't know. I guess so a little bit.
- [51:40]
Simon Hunter
I, I didn't have a right read on this one. I just was going to blindly bet this Charger side. I just felt like it's a Chargers kind of spot to back them and the fact that they're a dog. People still aren't sure about Herbert, his injury. I mean, people are talking about Herbert as if he should be the MVP in a game where I think he scored 19 against the Eagles and 16 against the Chiefs. It's just we live in a very bizarre time. There's never been dumber people speaking on microphones and that's the damn truth.
- [52:07]
Chad Mullen
But yeah, it's like looking in the mirror, man.
- [52:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Seriously though, I, I looked at this matchup, I just wanted to find, okay, are there any, at least trends here that can maybe make me flip to this Dax side? And there are some really good trends. That backup Dakota in 19 games in his career when he's on a Homestead, which is back to back home games. Dak in this exact spot, he's 15 and 4 straight up, 11 and 8 against the spread his last 15 games in this exact spot. So back to back homestead, he's 13 and two straight up. So if you want to be like Chad and you are worried about the number. Yeah, the one and a half, if you can get it, that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120. You probably can just take the money line from minus 130. And that's, that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said, the movement, maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers back door type of game, but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense. And that's, that's my pause here. It's like their, their defense needed, what was it, five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles May put up 16. On the flip side, the Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 2022 Dallas, when they're on the home stand playing against a team that is above 500. Dak three zero in this exact spot. So, you know, once again I'm trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team, but it just seems like all the numbers the pros are right. Right. The pros came in heavy on this one. I didn't really understand it. This was the Charger side, but the underlying numbers back it up. And offensively, you know, I hate to say they're the more desperate team here, but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was emotional win against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the chart. The Chiefs, you expect them to have a let down spot, I guess a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus Joe's pros all over the Cowboys team public. They will be hammering this Chargers team. So yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll give you full credit because I just did not see it. I think even you might even mention Sunday night I totally missed this one and I'm chasing the number now.
- [54:26]
Chad Mullen
Well, I'll put it on the list. The last one that I forgot to mention that is still interesting to me is Arizona as a two and a half point dog at Atlanta didn't come up in sharp calls like it. I, I like it basically because of the number in the spot. I don't want to bet Atlanta as a road favorite but are we blind to our love for Jacobe Brissette because we thought he was the better quarterback for this offense in limited opportunities before he got the job and then he did and we bet into him and we won a couple times but then we got killed a couple times. Where do we stand right now on this? I still lean Arizona. It's going to be two and a half all the way across the board. I'd almost rather bet him on the money line and just take a flyer.
- [55:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's another game where I honestly didn't have a penny on it because I was waiting to see where the number is going to go and it did go up. Like you can get the three now in Arizona if you want to get in. I did take a position once. I did get the three and I'll hit you with all the numbers. We knew all these numbers are going to be terrible in this Falcons team, right? Especially after a win. The Falcons. All right, let's get into it. So after a straight up win since 2019, they are 11, 24 and 1 against the spread after a win, including 1 and 3 against the spread this season. All right, what's Kirk Cousins after a win? Kirk Cousins in his career again, think about how good Kirk used to be. Now he's washed up and kind of terrible. He was 33, 46 against the spread in his career. So he's not good after straight up wins either. Not just, not even, even Atlantis. Atlanta's terrible. Kirk Cousins just as bad Every other underlying number. Chad, this Arizona team is atrocious. There is nothing I can give to you to try to sell you on this team. Really. Their defensive numbers, horrible. Their pass rush terrible. So Kirk should be able to pick this defense apart. Our only hope is, you know, Jacoby Brissette against bad defenses has been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually not that good though. Like a lot of his numbers are just straight Junk time numbers. So I have other games I want to talk about. So I'm happy to avoid this one. But I'm glad you're not strongly like, hey, we need to hammer this Arizona one because I would have to support you because I am on Arizona. But my God, if we can avoid this one like Tennessee, I'm happy.
- [56:38]
Chad Mullen
No, I feel like we got some games that we feel pretty good about. But if, if you're mit, if I'm missing something, tell me.
- [56:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm shocked. Just a couple games that you skipped. I'm shocked you skipped the Carolina Panther game. Are you wavering on that one? A little bit.
- [56:52]
Chad Mullen
A little bit, yeah. Although it is three and a half in the contest, right.
- [56:56]
Simon Hunter
And I, I'm once again, I, I, I, I'm shocked the public and the professionals alike have come in so heavy on this Tampa team where I mean I joked about it but like the, the Panthers got, they got screwed last week. I mean they got bamboozled like that. That hit on Shuck, the clock should have ran out. That should be an overtime game where the Panthers, yes, they did blow that game, but they're being priced as if they just, they got straight up beat or dominated by that Saints team. And I feel like it's gone too far where the Panthers have been good to us this season. Like we've been backing them in certain spots and fade them in others. And of course this is the exact spot where we're supposed to back this Panthers. And that's why I'm just shocked you haven't brought up where they lost last week. This season Panthers after a loss, they are 6, 0 against the spread this season. So it's like we've seen it time and time again. The public fades them, the number moves too much and they become a value. And you just said it, three and a half in the contest, that's a value. This Bucks team, they are better. No doubt. They have a more complete offense. Even when everything was rolling this season, it was always Baker coming from behind and them covering by, you know, a couple points, right? And I was really shocked to see this number again. Another Abrams number. Just an amazing number here since Week 7. Baker, he's 36 of 38 quarterbacks in the NFL of EPA per play.
- [58:21]
Chad Mullen
Look, we know struggling, he's been struggling. The offense has been struggling. We're trying to reconcile. Is the offense going to be better now that everybody is back? Obviously he didn't have anybody in that window other than a Mecca Buka. Now he's got Bucky driven back. He's got Mike Evans back, he's got Chris Godwin back. The offensive line is getting healthier, but they still haven't looked very, very good. But it was the defense that blew that game against the Falcons mostly. Baker did throw a bad pick, but it was the defense that blew that game. Flip side Panthers Bryce Young best quarterback in terms of wins. Comeback wins in the fourth quarter in overtime since 202311 comeback wins. So now he's an underdog and you know that's how they like to play. We talked about this on Tuesday. I love Bryce in this spot but I saw all the professional money coming in on the box and it just sort of scared me off my spot.
- [59:23]
Simon Hunter
And the pros I talked do not and I'm calling lazy pros but they're, they're some of the pros I talk to. They simply play. Don't even look at any type of research. They're simply playing certain spots. And this one here is they just don't think the books can keep not covering. Right. It's a lazy bet. But it's six straight weeks that Bucs have not covered. It would be if they don't cover here. It would be their longest non covering streak since 1982. So I guess these guys are just betting on straight up on the better team and the laws of averages. But I think the Bucks are who they are. Right. And I think they're not reacting too much to it of they are a good team but they don't have the defense to really roll and blow out teams let alone be a three, three and a half now in our contest point favorite on the road in a divisional game here. So you know I get it. This, this game obviously means much more to this Panthers team because the Bucks basically they can lose this game but if they win their next two, they still win the division regardless of what the Panthers do here. So it's a unique spot and I just have one more game I want to talk about that we didn't mention. Sorry Mad Mitchell. It's that Lions Pittsburgh game. What the hell are we doing with this game, Chad? I am so flabbergasted by this game.
- [60:29]
Chad Mullen
Well, Bing luck, it feels like the classic Steeler spot. We should be backing the Steelers. The Lions do not deserve to be six and a half seven point favorites in this game. It doesn't make any sense. They're not good enough to be doing that. It feels like a line from two years ago or last year. Yeah, and but is there so much Hype now on the Steelers that are all of a sudden becomes the public side because of what they've done, because they've continued to win, because now they are leading the division, because everyone is starting get excited about Aaron Rodgers. Like, I, I'm just sort of like, you want to bet the Mike Tomlin rah rah spot, all of that stuff. I don't feel the need to put it in the contest because I feel like we got a lot of other options like Carolina, Dallas, New England, Las Vegas, the Jags, Buffalo, the Giants. Like we got a lot of games that we feel better about. So talk me into putting Pittsburgh on the list.
- [61:33]
Simon Hunter
That's why I didn't want to blindside it. I flipped. I am on the lines. I told you I wanted to be on Pittsburgh and I was just like, maybe I'm overreacting too much what you just said. I'm giving too much credit probably to Aaron Rodgers and this is going to be a track meet. This is going to be a track meet. We know this Pittsburgh defense is suspect. They are not that good, let alone indoors. Like this is a bad spot to back them. And I was like, okay, I'm missing this because I really wanted to be on Pittsburgh. And you know, even then, even look at the Tomlin numbers, him as a big dog are actually pretty terrible. Like you don't want to be backing Tomlin as a big underdog in his career. As seven plus point dog in his career. Tomlin 3 and 15 straight up, 7 and 10 against the spread. So he's actually struggling. This exact spot, the big one that jumped out to me, I know I already said that. A lot of these, you know, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff stats are Ben Johnson stats. This one to me is the biggest Ben Johnson stat that I could find from their, their previous history together. I told you I thought we were dead in that Rams game for good reason because I knew there was something insane about that. The Lions just don't seem to blow those type of games. The Lions had not blown a 10 point lead in almost three years. So in those three years in that exact spot when they were leading by 10 plus points. 10 plus points. There are 210 straight up their only loss. You will remember this one well, NFC title game. Yes. Against the 49ers in the playoffs. And I was like, man, I remember that like that. You know, they took out Montgomery, put Gibson, Gims had a bad fumble and bang, bang. I think two touchdowns in a row by the 49ers. That game's totally flipped. So you know, it's historically a unique spot to back Dan Campbell. Like we've talked about it off a straight up loss. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff 239 against the spread. Even more insane since 2022 in this exact spot they are 141 against the spread. And you know, I look all the time, it's like, okay, well how's Dan Campbell been as a head coach when they blow a seven point lead? Like that's, that's a lot to ask your team to bounce back from. He is 9 and 5 straight up 11 and 3 against the spread in this exact spot. So I just want you to be on it. It's six, it's six and a half right now in our contest. I'd bet the six and a half on the Lions team. I thought the number should be four. Four and a half. That's why my model thinks as well. And I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team, they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. Like they actually are a really good high powered offense. I think they're number one and number two in total yards this season. Even with Dan Campbell taking over offensively, it's been the defense that's held them back all season. So to me, matchup wise, as good as Rogers looked in that last game, I think there are ways for this team to attack them, especially that defensive front to give the Rogers some problems where Miami, they have no real pass rush. We talk Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming to the year that was like the worst secondary in all football. And as much injuries as this Detroit team has had, they still, they play hard for Campbell, they hit hard. They know that they're just going to run tons of zones here and that's, you know, what you expect Rogers to be able to pick apart. But we've seen it Rodgers these last couple weeks, he's been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually struggled against certain type of zones this season. So to me this feels like it's going to be a game. It's going to be a lot of points and I don't see the Steelers keeping up with the chat. So I just wanted to bring it up just in case I don't blindside you come Sunday for my love with the slam team.
- [64:50]
Chad Mullen
It's on the list. It's on the list. We've added it to the list. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock. Bet you want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season? It's Hard Rock Bet. Not just because it's the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make it easy to bet on my favorite teams, players and leagues in just a few simple taps, especially with their brand new for your page that recommends picks based on my favorite picks and who I like to bet on. I open the app, go to my for your page, find a bet I like, and then bam. My bet is placed just in time for me to get back to wrapping presents, presence and enjoying my favorite holiday movie. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game if it wins. You also score $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra hundred and fifty dollars to bet with. Now that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock Bet fills your stockings with new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida In Florida offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem, call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia.
- [66:43]
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- [67:13]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not in investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available@public.com Disclosures hey, I'm Frank.
- [68:24]
Simon Hunter
And I have hidradenitis superativa HS before starting Cosentyx, I was so uncomfortable with my symptoms, like not being able to sleep on white sheets or wear white clothes. Now I can appreciate the little things.
- [68:39]
Cosentyx Advertiser
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- [69:18]
Simon Hunter
Ask your dermatologist about Cosentyx.
- [69:21]
Coca Cola Advertiser
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- [69:52]
Podcast Announcer
Have you been scrolling through TikTok live lately? Well, buckle up because the biggest creator celebration of the year just kicked off Live Fest 20202025 is officially here, uniting creators from every corner of the world. We're talking singers hitting high notes, dancers dropping choreo, gamers going head to head all on their way to trophies, stacked rewards and a red carpet moment waiting for them at the annual awards ceremony. You might even find your new go to recipe from a home cook or a new Internet bestie who is always there for you. Anything can happen here. And that's the magic of TikTok Live. From December 10th to 22nd, Live Fest is going full throttle. Creators of every kind are stepping into the spotlight with performances, challenges, battles, and big community moments. So dive in, show support, and help lift up the creators who inspire you, whether you are a fan or a creator. Search LiveFest2025 on TikTok to catch everything happening during Live Fest. Let's celebrate live together.
- [70:52]
Chad Mullen
All right.
- [70:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, buddy.
- [70:53]
Chad Mullen
Biggest bets.
- [70:56]
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man. Biggest bets. Honestly, because. Because I went so hard last week, I haven't gone too crazy this week. Right now, my biggest early position just because they're, you know, Saturday games is Washington and the Packers. I mean, not packers, the Bears. I could get bigger on the ramps tonight, but I just, like I said, I've been a little lukewarm on that. I'm just. Maybe I'm too close to it for the Sunday games. My bigger position so far. Again, this was early in the week. I bet it with the other Patriots. I just couldn't. Couldn't stop grabbing the plus three. Same with the Giants grabbing the plus three for favorites. You know, I think I'm gonna get there on Buffalo. We'll see. Right now, I'm not too heavily invested into it, but the more I look at that Buffalo line more, it feels like that's the type of game they just roll 30 to 7 or something like that. So I could get there on it. But, yeah, this week, obviously nowhere near as big as last week, but definitely took in some strong positions. My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.
- [71:59]
Chad Mullen
Moneyline underdog Parlay Tennessee.
- [72:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, throw it in.
- [72:04]
Chad Mullen
Arizona.
- [72:06]
Simon Hunter
Arizona. Okay. Yeah, I'll do it.
- [72:08]
Chad Mullen
New York Giants.
- [72:12]
Simon Hunter
New England.
- [72:13]
Chad Mullen
New England.
- [72:14]
Simon Hunter
And. Gotta put. Gotta put my Jags in there.
- [72:18]
Chad Mullen
The jazz.
- [72:19]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. Saints are up to five and a half now.
- [72:22]
Chad Mullen
Jesus Christ. Favorites parlay. Saints.
- [72:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Lions. Cincy. People might not hear, but I do love Bears. If we don't do Bears, though, we could do Buffalo. Yeah, Take. Do. Do. Adjusted. Don't. Don't do the minus five and a half. Five and a half. Yeah.
- [72:47]
Chad Mullen
I'll do the Bears.
- [72:49]
Simon Hunter
Bears. And if people don't hear this and they miss that Bears. One throw in Dallas. Dallas. That's a really nice, unique spot for them to win that game out.
- [72:55]
Chad Mullen
Right.
- [72:55]
Simon Hunter
I give you all those numbers.
- [72:57]
Chad Mullen
Wow. You come around a long way on that one.
- [72:59]
Simon Hunter
I know bullying does, does work on certain people.
- [73:03]
Chad Mullen
All right, Sharp versus Square. Who do we got?
- [73:11]
Simon Hunter
Sharp versus Square. I'll do it. I'll, I'll go super square. Give me, give me the bills. Minus 10.
- [73:21]
Chad Mullen
Wow.
- [73:21]
Simon Hunter
I know. I just know somehow I'm gonna end up betting a ton of money to that line. I just, I, I, as soon as I saw that, that go, that Josh Allen stat against good defense, it's like, my God, he just rolls these type of teams.
- [73:33]
Chad Mullen
All right, so rest balls was Washington.
- [73:40]
Simon Hunter
Come on, you got to do Tennessee.
- [73:42]
Chad Mullen
I wish I was just gonna say I'm taking Tennessee and taking the Titans. All right.
- [73:47]
Simon Hunter
Are you really?
- [73:48]
Chad Mullen
Yeah.
- [73:49]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God.
- [73:50]
Chad Mullen
I am. I am. All right. This has been Sharper Square part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square Sunday Morning on YouTube. You can eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation. We're going to make human decisions and it's going to be miserable. We will be back later that day at 7:30ish. Sunday night. Sharper Square on YouTube. Watch or listen Sharper Square on YouTube. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hey baby. Hey baby.
- [74:32]
Simon Hunter
We gonna be here all day. We're gonna be here all day, baby.
- [74:36]
Chad Mullen
I like this kind of party. I like this kind of party, baby.
- [74:41]
Lenovo Advertiser
If a Lenovo computer for your business is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just go directly to the source lenovo.com it's your last chance to get exclusive deals on the PCs you want for your business like the ThinkPad X914, Aura Edition and Yoga 7i 2in1. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's lenovo.com lenovo Lenovo.
- [75:11]
Public Investing Advertiser
Support for the show comes from public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any item idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures para.
- [76:21]
Coca Cola Advertiser
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- [76:50]
Podcast Announcer
Live Fest 2025 is taking over TikTok right now and the hottest creators on your feed are going all out to claim the top spot on TikTok. Here's one you can't miss. Hey, I'm Kira Elise. I go live every day to share my passion for music. Shout out to my community, the house Akira, my dragons who make every stream feel like family. Come be a part of the rise. Follow me Iralease and come hang out live. Let's run it all the way to the top.
- [77:13]
Simon Hunter
Get in on the action.
- [77:14]
Public Investing Advertiser
Search Live Fest 2025 on TikTok and back your favorite creators.
- [77:18]
Podcast Announcer
Let's celebrate. Live together.
- [77:21]
Chad Mullen
Only one movie answers the call. Hello, it's me, SpongeBob.
- [77:26]
Simon Hunter
For the biggest comedy event of the holiday season.
- [77:29]
Chad Mullen
Do you know what the best part is? What is it, Patrick?
- [77:32]
Simon Hunter
No, I'm asking.
- [77:33]
Public Investing Advertiser
The Spongebob movie rated DG Friday this.
- [77:36]
Podcast Announcer
Is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.