The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Sharp or Square: SHARP NFL WEEK 17 BETS
Date: December 27, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Episode Concept:
This “Sharper Square” episode focuses on breaking down the sharpest and squarest betting angles for NFL Week 17. The hosts analyze key games, provide insights from professional bettors (“sharp” calls), share personal experiences, and dive into statistical trends. The episode is lively and conversational, balancing expert analysis with sharp banter.
Main Theme & Purpose
This episode zeroes in on identifying sharp (“wiseguy”) and square (public) betting sides for NFL Week 17, with a special focus on high-stakes, playoff-implicated games. Chad and Simon work through big matchups—Eagles-Bills, Jaguars-Colts, Bears-49ers, Rams-Falcons, and more—offering listeners actionable betting advice, pro insights, and their own contest picks, while reflecting on betting trends and outcomes from the prior holiday games.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Opening Thoughts & Christmas Recap
- Both hosts share personal stories: Chad dealing with COVID and Simon with holiday traditions.
- Recap of unexpected results from Christmas NFL games; notable trend of underdog success (7-0 ATS on holidays).
- “Holiday games, Thanksgiving dogs 3–0. Black Friday, obviously the Bears... Eagles covered as a dog... 7–0. Pretty, pretty crazy.” — Simon [02:50]
- Reflection on Dak Prescott's performance and NFL’s uncanny ability to produce quality games regardless of matchups.
2. Sharp Calls: Professional Bettors’ Feedback ([05:38])
- Each week, Simon brings feedback from professional bettors, dubbed “sharp call.”
- Major sharp & square leanings discussed for each key game.
Highlights:
- Pros love the Texans against Chargers; major move from +2.5 to +1.
- Pros and public split on Eagles-Bills; possible concern with Josh Allen’s injury status.
- Pros love Colts over Jaguars; Simon leans Jags, Chad leans Colts.
- Titans and Browns receive sharp money but some public interest as well.
- Pros on Seahawks over Panthers; some sharp money at Panthers +7.5, but mostly about getting the number, not strong sentiment.
- Big disagreement between sharps and public on Rams-Falcons; Simon is heavy on Rams, pros favor Falcons’ side/matchup.
Quote:
“The pros absolutely love the Colts... I just think the Jags are so much a better team. So that was a really interesting one.” — Simon [07:01]
3. Game-by-Game Analysis & Picks
Texans @ Chargers ([09:02])
- Both hosts favor Texans due to matchup edge: Houston's defensive line versus weakened Chargers OL.
- Demeco Ryans praised for outperformance as a dog.
- Simon: “...I just will not be fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys... Against a team that did what it did against Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles... I'm just not buying it.” — Chad [09:02]
Seahawks @ Panthers ([12:42])
- Simon is bullish on Seattle; believes the Panthers’ improvement is overstated and Seattle possesses a real talent/defensive advantage.
- Points to Sam Darnold’s strong track record as a big favorite.
- “Seattle absolutely dominates this matchup... 55, 57% of the time, which again, that’s an edge to me.” — Simon [13:59]
Jaguars @ Colts ([16:28])
- Chad likes Colts +6.5 as a classic buy-low/sell-high after blowout loss vs. Niners; quotes home dogs off blowouts as 61% ATS.
- Simon sticks with the Jags due to their offensive machine and recurring success vs. the Colts, but acknowledges pros are backing Indy and the number is dropping.
Titans vs. Saints ([24:39])
- Chad and Sharps on Titans (down from +3.5 to +2.5) despite public dog worries; Simon likes early read but notes public action.
- Discussion of rookie QB Shuck’s surprising impact for New Orleans and how this game will be a major test for him.
Browns vs. Steelers ([27:49])
- Browns +3 considered the “Brass Balls Bet of the Week.”
- Chad notes the 61% ATS trend for teams with “nothing to play for” vs. “something to play for” late in the year.
- Simon: “This is going to be the Miles Garrett party... I love the irony of it, if it is going to be Mason Rudolph being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against.” [29:52]
Bucs @ Dolphins ([31:51])
- Chad questions why Miami isn't being discussed more as the right side; Simon notes public/pro money is landing on Tampa, worries about Bucs' defensive weaknesses but not enough confidence in Miami’s offense/QB situation.
Giants vs. Raiders ([34:27])
- Simon likes Raiders despite line movement and their public backing; points to statistical trend: in very rare matchups between two low-win teams late in season, the home team is historically undefeated.
Eagles @ Bills ([37:29])
- Both are wary due to Josh Allen’s injury and the Eagles' stated intention to play starters despite having little to play for.
- Chad is overexposed on Bills bets; Simon wants to bet Bills if Allen is cleared.
Bears @ 49ers ([42:13])
- Emotional investment from Chad as a Bears fan but both see value: Bears are turnover machines and have improved against good teams.
- Simon believes 49ers' defense is vulnerable and Bears can stay close.
- “If our contest is three and a half, there’s no way we avoid this one. There’s no way... With the hook, I love it. And again, I have this game modeled at two.” — Simon [43:07]
Rams @ Falcons ([46:26])
- Simon loves the Rams but notes sharp money and line movement favor Falcons, making him more cautious.
4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On holiday underdog trend:
“Holiday games, Thanksgiving dogs 3–0... we went 3–0 again on Christmas. So underdogs on the holidays. 7–0. Pretty, pretty crazy.”
— Simon [02:50] -
On pros vs. Joe’s game split:
“Pros are lining up on that [Titans] side. The public is hammering that same side. Gonna be a really interesting matchup.”
— Simon [07:01] -
On Bears’ turnaround:
“It’s unfortunate. I can’t put Chad’s Bears down anymore saying who have they beaten because they have... As horrible as their defense has been, what are they leading the league in? Turnover rate—because your quarterback doesn’t turn the ball over, your defense gets picks.”
— Simon [43:07] -
On Josh Allen’s durability:
“Josh Allen... the biggest thing I always talk about is availability. The greatest strength of Josh Allen is he simply does not miss time. He is one of the toughest guys in this entire league and it’s why we all love him...”
— Simon [38:30]
5. Picks, Bets & Contest Strategy ([52:13])
- Simon’s biggest bets:
- Houston
- Seattle (waiting for best line)
- Cleveland (loaded up on +3.5 and +3)
- Bears (+3)
- Underdog parlay: Houston, Bears, Tennessee, Cleveland, Raiders
- Favorites parlay: Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Rams, Bills
“Sharp vs. Square” picks ([57:10]):
- Chad: Tennessee
- Simon: Chicago Bears +3
Important Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------|------------| | Recap, Holiday Dogs Trend | 02:50 | | Sharp Call Segment | 05:38 | | Texans @ Chargers Analysis | 09:02 | | Seahawks @ Panthers | 12:42 | | Jaguars @ Colts | 16:28 | | Titans vs. Saints | 24:39 | | Browns vs. Steelers | 27:49 | | Bucs @ Dolphins | 31:51 | | Giants vs. Raiders | 34:27 | | Eagles @ Bills | 37:29 | | Bears @ 49ers | 42:13 | | Rams @ Falcons | 46:26 | | Biggest Bets, Parlays | 52:13 | | Sharp vs. Square Picks | 57:10 |
Summary Table: Sharp Consensus Sides
| Game | Sharp Side | Notable Analysis | |----------------------|----------------------|-----------------------------------------| | Texans @ Chargers | Texans | D-line vs. weak OL, Demeco as dog | | Seahawks @ Panthers | Seahawks | Big talent gap, Panthers overvalued | | Jaguars @ Colts | Colts (Chad/Pros) | Buy low/sell high, number dropping | | Titans vs. Saints | Titans | Sharp/public dog, question on Saints' rookie QB | | Browns vs. Steelers | Browns | Brass Balls Bet, possible PIT resting | | Bears @ 49ers | Bears (+3/3.5) | Turnover edge, undervalued line | | Rams @ Falcons | Falcons (market) | Sharp money, line dropping |
Tone & Style
The episode mixes banter, sharp betting analysis, contest strategy, personal anecdotes, and statistical trends. The hosts are frank, sometimes self-deprecating, and willing to debate and disagree.
Final Thoughts
Listeners come away with a concise but nuanced set of sharp-vs-square leans for a loaded week. The hosts demonstrate how pro bettors break down line movement, public perception, matchup analysis, and deep-dive into statistical angles. The episode’s tone is accessible, making even complex betting discussions engaging for fans and participants in weekly NFL contests.