Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - Sharp NFL Week 18 Bets
Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Overview

In this special Week 18 episode of "Sharp or Square," betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the final slate of games for the NFL regular season, focusing on where the sharp (professional) and square (public) money is landing. The episode blends sharp betting insights, historical trends, and lively banter as the co-hosts debate bets, contest picks, and the narratives swirling around league storylines. Both hosts reflect on their betting philosophies for a challenging and unpredictable final week, packed with playoff implications, dramatic line movements, and value hunting.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Sharp Calls and Notable Line Movements

(Timestamp: 07:26 – 11:29)

• Chicago Bears -3 vs Detroit Lions:

  • Pros love the Bears, even at -3. Both public and pro money are on Chicago, surprising the hosts as the line moves in favor of Chicago despite Detroit’s recent form.
  • “That one actually pretty, pretty shocked me… I thought Detroit would be the pro side, the public would be over the Bears. But it seems like the public and the pros are lined up on this Bears team.” (Simon, 07:44)

• Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants:

  • Despite wanting to bet Dallas, all the pros Simon’s spoken to love the Giants. Giants at +3.5 seen as a value play due to Cowboys struggles with running quarterbacks.

• Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers:

  • Sharps on the Seahawks as road underdogs, doubting SF’s sustainability. However, the hosts push back—preferring Shanahan and Purdy at home.
  • “Most guys I talk to really like that spot and they just think this 49ers team is truly a house of cards.” (Simon, 08:28)

• Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Pros and hosts align on Panthers as line drops to +2.5, noting fade spot for Baker Mayfield at home.

• Chargers at Broncos:

  • Chargers are getting sharp action; books are holding firm on high spread. Public likely staying away—this is true “pros vs. books.”

• New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:

  • Pros are all over Saints +3/+3.5, even with Olave missing. Early number movement toward Atlanta but now action driving it down.

• Minnesota Vikings Line:

  • Sharps got in on Minnesota at +5.5/6.5. Now line back up to 7.5, reflecting uncertainty at QB for Packers.

2. Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Carolina Panthers +2.5 @ Buccaneers

(Timestamp: 11:38 – 14:56)

• Hosts double down on Panthers, pointing out historical trends and Baker’s woes as a home favorite, especially in division.
• “No team has ever gone 8-0 ATS after a straight up loss… so like you said, we’re betting on history here." (Simon, 13:00)

3. Deep Dives on Key Games

• Seattle at San Francisco
  (16:05 – 19:30)

  • History: SF is rarely a home underdog with >75% win%.
  • Shanahan, Purdy, and the home-field dynamic discussed in contrast to Darnold’s road underdog profile.
  • Simon: "There's something about this 49ers team, especially at home and knowing that this is kind of the way it's been with Shanahan.” (17:41)
  • Hosts side with 49ers despite sharp money on Seattle.

• New Orleans Saints +3 vs Falcons
  (24:58 – 28:08)

  • Even without Olave, sharp action loves Saints.
  • Divisional familiarity and Saints’ pass defense highlighted.

• Bengals -7.5 vs Browns
  (28:50 – 31:43)

  • Chad bullish on Bengals; expects them to “fling it.” Simon notes Browns as poor ATS after a straight-up win.
  • “This is the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out, plays hard. Their offense has been rolling.” (Simon, 29:33)

• Cowboys -3.5 at Giants
  (33:49 – 34:43)

  • Both like Cowboys but are wary of sharp support for Giants. Dak’s historical dominance in this spot is noted.

• Packers at Vikings
  (35:27 – 37:25)

  • Helmets off for this one: line moved hard due to Packers’ QB uncertainty and possible resting of starters. Not much play left at current lines.

• Chargers +12.5 at Broncos
  (37:25 – 40:29)

  • Most sharp money on Chargers, expecting defense to hang tough and Trey Lance to offer a spark with his legs despite being a major step down from Herbert.

• Lions +3 at Bears
  (41:37 – 46:12)

  • Complex: Pros support Bears, but Chad leans into “betting against recency bias” by taking the Lions after an ugly loss.
  • Simon: "This is the lowest we've been able to buy this Lions team in, I don't know, four years with Campbell.” (45:09)

• Cardinals at Rams -7.5
  (46:12 – 50:04)

  • Rams are "Chad's Choice"; both hosts expect Stafford to rally after rough first half last week and exploit a Cardinals defense that’s checked out.
  • "Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacations.” (Simon, 47:05)

4. Sunday Night Football: Steelers +3.5 vs Ravens

(Timestamp: 50:04 – 52:53)

• Both hosts love Steelers as divisional dog, citing historical ATS trends in Ravens-Steelers matchups.
• “This series since 2005: 30-12-3, the dog in this matchup, 71% in the regular season.” (Simon, 51:09)
• Lamar practicing, likely playing—but they don’t see a huge line impact either way.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• Chad, on brass balls betting Panthers:
  “We would have been doing our listeners a disservice if we didn’t just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are coming off a loss… Let’s do everyone service and be on the right side of history.” (12:03)

• Simon, on fading Baker Mayfield:
  "As a favorite, we talk, we just do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We like to back him as a dog. Little did we know he would be going through one of the most historical worst streaks ever against the spread." (13:30)

• On sharp/square identity:

  • “This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention.” (Chad, 02:27)
  • "It feels like we're the suckers here, but like I said, I think the pros are missing this one.” (Simon, 18:59)

Best Bets & Betting Strategy Discussion

• Simon’s Biggest Bets:
  (55:38)

  • Early position on Vikings, 49ers +1.5, Panthers teased up to +7.5, matched with 49ers up to +7.5.
  • Moneyline parlays: Rams + Bengals (“teams who need the win against checked out opponents”).

• Moneyline Underdog Parlay:
  Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans (58:33)

• Moneyline Favorites Parlay:
  Cincinnati, Rams, Denver (-5.5), Minnesota (58:47)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 07:26 – Sharp money breakdowns and line movement analysis
• 11:38 – Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Panthers +2.5
• 16:05 – Dive into Seattle vs San Francisco; sharp split
• 24:58 – New Orleans vs Atlanta, Saints as sharp side
• 28:50 – Bengals vs Browns; “Browns after a win” fade angle
• 33:49 – Cowboys-Giants: Pros vs public
• 37:25 – Chargers-Broncos, big spreads, sharp dog
• 41:37 – Lions-Bears, contrarian case for Detroit
• 46:12 – Rams-Cardinals: buying on Rams to close season strong
• 50:04 – Steelers-Ravens SNF, divisional dog stats

Tone & Banter

• Classic Sharp or Square: Conversational, teasing, and candid with frequent joking about age, Indiana roots, and Midwest underdog pride.
• Unabashed about betting on (or against) historic trends, with self-aware humor about their own sharp/square tendencies.
• Frequent reminders to listeners about value, contest strategy, and the volatility of the final regular season week.

Final “Sharp or Square” Picks

• Simon: 49ers +1.5 (60:04)
• Chad: Bengals -7.5 (60:11)

For Listeners

Perfect for:
NFL bettors, contest players, and fans looking for sharp-vs-public perspectives, actionable picks, historical betting trends, and some good-natured sports talk.
Skip: Ads, intros, and promos (not included here).

Hot Tip:
If you want direct betting updates and contest leans before kickoff, follow their Sunday morning YouTube broadcast for last-minute sharp calls.

“We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get the eavesdrop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions we will regret.” (Chad, 61:01)