Sharp or Square - Sharp NFL Week 18 Bets: Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Vikings, Panthers-Bucs, Lions-Bears, Cardinals-Rams and more

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square - Sharp NFL Week 18 Bets
Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

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Overview

In this special Week 18 episode of "Sharp or Square," betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter break down the final slate of games for the NFL regular season, focusing on where the sharp (professional) and square (public) money is landing. The episode blends sharp betting insights, historical trends, and lively banter as the co-hosts debate bets, contest picks, and the narratives swirling around league storylines. Both hosts reflect on their betting philosophies for a challenging and unpredictable final week, packed with playoff implications, dramatic line movements, and value hunting.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Sharp Calls and Notable Line Movements

(Timestamp: 07:26 – 11:29)

• Chicago Bears -3 vs Detroit Lions:

  • Pros love the Bears, even at -3. Both public and pro money are on Chicago, surprising the hosts as the line moves in favor of Chicago despite Detroit’s recent form.
  • “That one actually pretty, pretty shocked me… I thought Detroit would be the pro side, the public would be over the Bears. But it seems like the public and the pros are lined up on this Bears team.” (Simon, 07:44)

• Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants:

  • Despite wanting to bet Dallas, all the pros Simon’s spoken to love the Giants. Giants at +3.5 seen as a value play due to Cowboys struggles with running quarterbacks.

• Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers:

  • Sharps on the Seahawks as road underdogs, doubting SF’s sustainability. However, the hosts push back—preferring Shanahan and Purdy at home.
  • “Most guys I talk to really like that spot and they just think this 49ers team is truly a house of cards.” (Simon, 08:28)

• Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Pros and hosts align on Panthers as line drops to +2.5, noting fade spot for Baker Mayfield at home.

• Chargers at Broncos:

  • Chargers are getting sharp action; books are holding firm on high spread. Public likely staying away—this is true “pros vs. books.”

• New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:

  • Pros are all over Saints +3/+3.5, even with Olave missing. Early number movement toward Atlanta but now action driving it down.

• Minnesota Vikings Line:

  • Sharps got in on Minnesota at +5.5/6.5. Now line back up to 7.5, reflecting uncertainty at QB for Packers.

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2. Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Carolina Panthers +2.5 @ Buccaneers

(Timestamp: 11:38 – 14:56)

• Hosts double down on Panthers, pointing out historical trends and Baker’s woes as a home favorite, especially in division.
• “No team has ever gone 8-0 ATS after a straight up loss… so like you said, we’re betting on history here." (Simon, 13:00)

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3. Deep Dives on Key Games

• Seattle at San Francisco
  (16:05 – 19:30)

  • History: SF is rarely a home underdog with >75% win%.
  • Shanahan, Purdy, and the home-field dynamic discussed in contrast to Darnold’s road underdog profile.
  • Simon: "There's something about this 49ers team, especially at home and knowing that this is kind of the way it's been with Shanahan.” (17:41)
  • Hosts side with 49ers despite sharp money on Seattle.

• New Orleans Saints +3 vs Falcons
  (24:58 – 28:08)

  • Even without Olave, sharp action loves Saints.
  • Divisional familiarity and Saints’ pass defense highlighted.

• Bengals -7.5 vs Browns
  (28:50 – 31:43)

  • Chad bullish on Bengals; expects them to “fling it.” Simon notes Browns as poor ATS after a straight-up win.
  • “This is the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out, plays hard. Their offense has been rolling.” (Simon, 29:33)

• Cowboys -3.5 at Giants
  (33:49 – 34:43)

  • Both like Cowboys but are wary of sharp support for Giants. Dak’s historical dominance in this spot is noted.

• Packers at Vikings
  (35:27 – 37:25)

  • Helmets off for this one: line moved hard due to Packers’ QB uncertainty and possible resting of starters. Not much play left at current lines.

• Chargers +12.5 at Broncos
  (37:25 – 40:29)

  • Most sharp money on Chargers, expecting defense to hang tough and Trey Lance to offer a spark with his legs despite being a major step down from Herbert.

• Lions +3 at Bears
  (41:37 – 46:12)

  • Complex: Pros support Bears, but Chad leans into “betting against recency bias” by taking the Lions after an ugly loss.
  • Simon: "This is the lowest we've been able to buy this Lions team in, I don't know, four years with Campbell.” (45:09)

• Cardinals at Rams -7.5
  (46:12 – 50:04)

  • Rams are "Chad's Choice"; both hosts expect Stafford to rally after rough first half last week and exploit a Cardinals defense that’s checked out.
  • "Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacations.” (Simon, 47:05)

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4. Sunday Night Football: Steelers +3.5 vs Ravens

(Timestamp: 50:04 – 52:53)

• Both hosts love Steelers as divisional dog, citing historical ATS trends in Ravens-Steelers matchups.
• “This series since 2005: 30-12-3, the dog in this matchup, 71% in the regular season.” (Simon, 51:09)
• Lamar practicing, likely playing—but they don’t see a huge line impact either way.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• Chad, on brass balls betting Panthers:
  “We would have been doing our listeners a disservice if we didn’t just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are coming off a loss… Let’s do everyone service and be on the right side of history.” (12:03)

• Simon, on fading Baker Mayfield:
  "As a favorite, we talk, we just do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We like to back him as a dog. Little did we know he would be going through one of the most historical worst streaks ever against the spread." (13:30)

• On sharp/square identity:

  • “This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention.” (Chad, 02:27)
  • "It feels like we're the suckers here, but like I said, I think the pros are missing this one.” (Simon, 18:59)

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Best Bets & Betting Strategy Discussion

• Simon’s Biggest Bets:
  (55:38)

  • Early position on Vikings, 49ers +1.5, Panthers teased up to +7.5, matched with 49ers up to +7.5.
  • Moneyline parlays: Rams + Bengals (“teams who need the win against checked out opponents”).

• Moneyline Underdog Parlay:
  Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans (58:33)

• Moneyline Favorites Parlay:
  Cincinnati, Rams, Denver (-5.5), Minnesota (58:47)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 07:26 – Sharp money breakdowns and line movement analysis
• 11:38 – Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Panthers +2.5
• 16:05 – Dive into Seattle vs San Francisco; sharp split
• 24:58 – New Orleans vs Atlanta, Saints as sharp side
• 28:50 – Bengals vs Browns; “Browns after a win” fade angle
• 33:49 – Cowboys-Giants: Pros vs public
• 37:25 – Chargers-Broncos, big spreads, sharp dog
• 41:37 – Lions-Bears, contrarian case for Detroit
• 46:12 – Rams-Cardinals: buying on Rams to close season strong
• 50:04 – Steelers-Ravens SNF, divisional dog stats

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Tone & Banter

• Classic Sharp or Square: Conversational, teasing, and candid with frequent joking about age, Indiana roots, and Midwest underdog pride.
• Unabashed about betting on (or against) historic trends, with self-aware humor about their own sharp/square tendencies.
• Frequent reminders to listeners about value, contest strategy, and the volatility of the final regular season week.

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Final “Sharp or Square” Picks

• Simon: 49ers +1.5 (60:04)
• Chad: Bengals -7.5 (60:11)

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For Listeners

Perfect for:
NFL bettors, contest players, and fans looking for sharp-vs-public perspectives, actionable picks, historical betting trends, and some good-natured sports talk.
Skip: Ads, intros, and promos (not included here).

Hot Tip:
If you want direct betting updates and contest leans before kickoff, follow their Sunday morning YouTube broadcast for last-minute sharp calls.

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“We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get the eavesdrop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions we will regret.” (Chad, 61:01)

Transcript

[Simon Hunter]

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[Danny Shapiro]

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[Cam Jordan]

It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast. Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment about anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture, and I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season. The season of More on the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

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[Danny Shapiro]

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[Simon Hunter]

We were in the car like a rolling stone came on and he said, there's a line in there about your mother. And I said, what?

[Chad Millman]

What I would do if I didn't.

[Simon Hunter]

Feel like I was being accepted is choose an identity that other people can't have.

[Chad Millman]

I knew something had happened to me in the middle of the night, but.

[Simon Hunter]

I couldn't hold on to what had happened.

[Danny Shapiro]

These are just a few of the moving and important stories on my 13th season of family Secrets. Listen to Family secrets on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. RingCentral's AI receptionist uses Voice AI to answer on the first ring so you'll never miss a call again. In just a few minutes, you can personalize your own AI receptionist to answer questions, route calls, schedule appointments, and even send texts in multiple languages. Plus, it's easy to scale. Create unlimited AI receptionists across any phone system. It's all powered by one reliable platform for effortless AI communications. See for [e-mail] RingCentral Voice of your Business did you know Tide has been upgraded to provide an even better clean in cold water. Tide is specifically designed to fight any stain you throw at it, even in cold butter. Yep, chocolate ice cream? Sure thing. Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered. You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology. Just remember if it's gotta be clean. It's gotta be tide.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rodbat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better, my co host, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad. Happy New Year to you, my friend. How you doing?

[Chad Millman]

Happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to Matt Mitchell. Happy New Year to all of our friends and listeners and watchers who have spent the season with us, who found us anew in the Sharper Square world, who came with us from the old world. We are incredibly appreciative and lucky as we kick off 2026. Good Lord. 2026.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it doesn't sound real yet. I, I definitely had one of those moments last night. We're just saying out loud. I turned to my friend, I said, it is weird every time you hear that. We're closer now to 2050 than we are to the year 2000. The year 2000 doesn't feel.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, my God.

[Simon Hunter]

The year 2050 sounds like a different lifetime. So it's kind of a mind right now thinking about that.

[Chad Millman]

2050 is cosmic, dude. I, I don't even know how that it. Well, let's see. 2050. I. I can't even say how old I'll be. Simon, you might be. You might be doing this show on your own by then, brother.

[Simon Hunter]

I doubt it. Chad. I keep saying people like you that live on bird feed, they live to 120, 50 in all my clogged arteries.

[Chad Millman]

I'm not even going to say. All I know is that in. I'm not even going to say 2050. 80. I can't even, I can't even see the number. I, I won't be 80, but I won't be that far off.

[Simon Hunter]

I mean, you really want to know? I'll be your age, basically.

[Chad Millman]

Dude, you'll be older than me.

[Simon Hunter]

I'll. I'll basically be right around 60.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, but I'm not. I'm not 60.

[Simon Hunter]

I know. It's just fun making fun of you.

[Chad Millman]

That's hurtful. Those are hurtful things to say as we kick off the new year as BFFs. Hey, listen, today, no matter where you are, no matter what you're doing, we are all Hoosiers. That's all I'm going to say. Except I'm also going to say for those who are like, grappling with Indiana's College football dominance. Welcome to the club. If you're. If you're joining us in Hoosier nation, you're wondering what a Hoosier is. I wish I could tell you. I took an entire class on it when I went to Indiana University. I still don't know. It could be some nickname from a poem a guy in Indiana wrote. It could be a saying from jolly old England, Simon, about like depicting strength and woodsman. It could be because a guy who owned a lot of land in the state of Indiana was named John Hoosier and everyone who worked for him called themselves Hoosiers. It doesn't matter today, Simon. You're a Hoosier. Matt Mitchell is a Hoosier. I'm a Hoosier. Go iu. Fight, fight. Fight.

[Simon Hunter]

What about this trend, Chad? The trend of. What is it?

[Chad Millman]

Don't like it.

[Simon Hunter]

Teams off a buy in the college.

[Chad Millman]

Playoffs do not like what I've seen so far with the teams getting the buys. It's not a good trend at all, Simon. We saw it again last night with Ohio State losing to Miami. Great game by Miami. Hopefully Kurt Signetti gets to repeat the words of Miami coach that he said last night. And.

[Simon Hunter]

But hats off to our guys for being some tough ass sons of bitches.

[Chad Millman]

Tough ass sons of bitches. That's what we are for doing a Week 18 episode on Thursday on New Year's Day in the morning because we are dedicated, we're professional, we're gonna do our stinking job. Tough ass sons of bitches. Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

We both should be up on a couch right now watching Stranger Things, getting ready for this college football day. But instead, the never ending wheel that is the NFL continues to roll, my friend. We got to get to it.

[Chad Millman]

No, Simon, we should be on the peloton working off the olive oil cake that we ate last night. All right, reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get into this. Every week we give our picks every week, even in the holiday season, Simon's fellow professional betters, the wise guys, are going to give us some feedback. So let's get to it. Hear some sharp calls.

[Simon Hunter]

I have to answer this phone.

[Danny Shapiro]

All right.

[Simon Hunter]

Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said baby, what you doing? Yeah. As always, let's start where we differ. The pros absolutely love Chicago. Most guys I've talked to have taken a position on Chicago. They even like Chicago at the minus three. So they totally think Chicago's are a much better team than Detroit right now. A team that is playing for that two Seed they think they're gonna massively motivate and they've been betting it just thinking that exact way. So that one actually pretty, pretty shocked me. I thought Detroit would be the pro side, the public would be over the Bears. But it seems like the public and the pros are lined up on this Bears team. Another game. I think it's just not on our radar or maybe I'm just missing it. I wanted to be on Dallas. Every pro I've talked to, they love the Giants here in this spot. They love Dart and what he can do offensively against a Cowboys defense. It's just atrocious, especially against running quarterbacks. So I found it really interesting. So many pros think that's gonna be a close one. And yeah, that number is a Couple Times Touch 4 Again, just got a mainly bet back down to three and a half. A lot of books. So really interesting. A game that I might simply just be missing. Seattle Seahawks. I cannot believe the pros are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite on the road and a must win to get the one seed type of game. But they are. I mean, most guys I talk to really like that spot and they just think this 49ers team is truly a house of cards. How. How much longer could Purdy in this offense prop up this 49ers team is kind of their view of it. And if you're looking for a team that maybe can stop this juggernaut of an offense, the 49ers, it would be the Seattle defense. Right. That's been so dominant on the road. So really interesting game where I thought all of us would be lined up on them. And it's pretty split for what we did get right. Panthers like we talked about all week, you know, that came down from three and a half to three three. Now down to two and a half. That's a really smart, sharp side. And I'm glad the pros are on it because I was a little worried when I saw how much money was pouring on that Bucs team. It's like, what am I missing here? But I think we see this number keep dropping. It makes me feel better as our position and you know, another game we haven't spent too much time on. But I think is an interesting move by the professionals. Is that Chargers game, the pros. I've just been hammering the Chargers and the number really has not budged. So that's going to be an interesting topic to talk about. Where are the books? Simply just missing it. Are they overrating too much the, the backups for this Chargers team and they're clearly taking a stand here. The, the books and you know, I don't think the public this is a game they're ever going to mess with. I truly think this is just a professionals versus the books type of game. Right. The most, you know, Joe public betters, they're not going to bet too big on the NFL this weekend. So a lot of the money, when you see big money simply on one side most times, if it's a game like this, like a 12 and a half point spread, this is going to be professional money. It's not going to be the type of game the public talk touches here. So I really should see where that number goes, Chad, because like I said, the books have taken a stand now. They're holding firm on that 12 and a half game. We love saints plus three. Plus three and a half. It's. I knew that would be the pro side. It's going to be interesting what happens now. We just got word before the show Olave is going to miss this game. See where that number goes. Maybe we get fours four and a half. I know there's going to be some pros on the other side of this. It's just them. They basically took Atlanta two and a half. They've not touched it since. So it really is just if you're getting the three, three and a half. That's a professional side of my opinion on the Saints. And you know, the last one, we talked a little bit about it, Minnesota, we've seen that number. A couple books get up to seven and a half. It keeps coming back down. So, you know, there is some, a little bit of resistance, but I hope people listen. Got the five and a half. Got the six and a half On Minnesota, that was definitely the sharp side. I don't think we see it go below seven at this point. So yeah, it's a wonky week. I'll have maybe a little bit more calls come Sunday morning. But just with the holiday, it, it throws it off a little bit because most pros I know, especially professional groups, they're really focused on the college, the college bowl games and the playoffs. Once that, once those games are over, that's when they start taking larger positions come NFL on Saturday and Sunday. So I'll definitely have more info hopefully Sunday morning.

[Chad Millman]

All right. So everyone check it out Sunday morning. We're on the air. YouTube Watch it.

[Simon Hunter]

That excited Sharper Square.

[Chad Millman]

I'm really excited about this Carolina game. We've been hitting it since it was three and a half last Sunday. They are now two and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simon the Carolina Panthers are going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bep.

[Simon Hunter]

You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

[Chad Millman]

To me it came down to this and the Chargers and I'm glad you brought up the Chargers and sharp calls because I do want to talk about them later in the show. Really intriguing matchup to me but I feel like we would have been doing our listeners a poor service, a disservice if we didn't just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are coming off a loss. They are on the road. They can fulfill their destiny that we have been predicting for two years of winning the dreadful nobody cares about it. NFC south. Like how do we not stick to our guns and go with the Carolina Panthers especially And a trend. Three weeks ago we're on them, two weeks ago we're off them. This week we're on them. Let's just be consistent. Let's do everyone service and be on the right side of history with the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we love betting history as well. Just the uniqueness of this right this will be give all the stat one more time. Carolina 70 against the spread after a straight up loss covering almost 12 points per game in this exact spot since 1990 no team has ever gone 80 against the spread after a straight up loss. So like you said, we're betting on history here. Can never avoid it. Really unique spot with this Panthers team. And yeah I, I really found it interesting just about what I gave out that home record with Baker, just about how bad he is in this exact spot at home and the fact that you know, in his career 5 and 14 at home and against divisional foes since he's moved all these different teams. So since 2020 he's 2 and 12 against the spread against home divisional foes. So as a favor we talk, we just do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We like to back him as a dog. Little did we know he would be going through one of the most historical worst streaks ever against the spread. We have made money luckily off of it. But my guy looking back, there were so many signs that this was just a crumbling house and the start of the year. They were so hot. They were so good to us because we were winning on them. I think we're not late to the party with this Bucks team but you know we've been a little hesitant in certain matchups to fade them. Here we're both aligned where we're like, okay, we want to fade Baker. We really want to back the Panthers. And we. We said this probably should be closer to a pick. There's not much that separates these two. These two teams of this standpoint. So the fact that you're still getting the Baker feels like tax. Like they're still. The books are still giving Baker that point, point and a half because he is the better quarterback. I think we're getting a steal here. Like the Panthers, you know, coming off 54 yards by Bryce Young. Yeah, like I said, this is. This is a. This exact thing he does. He plays possum. They. They're terrible one week. The next week, he's throwing for what was a 350 against the Rams. Like a juggernaut. It just. It's just so up and down this season. So, yeah, I love that we're ending the season with our team. The Panthers give it to us plus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

You know, Simon, we had some friends over last night, and I got a lot of comments this week from listeners about your immediate reaction when I said, rico tower needs seven yards. And you're like, no, no, I can't do a whole show where you're talking about this.

[Simon Hunter]

Seven yards, seven yards.

[Chad Millman]

I just want to point out I did bet Rico Dowdle 25 plus yards rushing and parlay it with Rico Dowdle, his anytime touchdown. Because the anytime touchdown odds are about plus 117. If you parlay it with his 25 plus yards, you're getting it for plus 130. So that was my point.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I had. I think I had two different people walk up to me and say, hey, Rico, Dado has got a bad hamstring. He might not play this week.

[Chad Millman]

He's playing. He's. He's full participant.

[Simon Hunter]

If the difference is 7 yards, to make what is a million dollars in incentives, you have to take the shot. Yeah. You have to at least get two or three carriers to try to get that seven yards. I know the touchdown might be a stretch, but the seven yards, he's got it.

[Chad Millman]

I love that people were coming up to you in the book.

[Simon Hunter]

Why tell me this guy's hurt?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I just thought, yeah, that is just great. God bless our listeners. The freaking best. Hey, Matt Mitchell. I didn't put this in the script, but we should throw up Seattle and San Francisco just because Simon mentioned it. Because I didn't think we were going to play it in the contest.

[Simon Hunter]

We can't. Right? It's Saturday.

[Chad Millman]

Right. We can't play it in the contest. So, like, I'm a little surprised, too. I understand sort of where the wise guys are coming from. And we talked a little bit about this on Tuesday. There are very clear distinctions here. Either you believe in Kyle Shanahan as an underdog and you believe in what he's been able to prove with his team at home as an underdog, or you believe in Mike McDonald and what he's been able to prove with his defense on the road and being so dominant. So I understand why the wise guys are backing the Seahawks. At the end of the day, I think you and I both just feel better backing Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan than ultimately backing Sam Darnold.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And we talked. This is another historical game, right. Since 1990, the only one other time has the 49ers had a 1 percentage above 75% and been a home dog. And it's very unique. I went back and looked it up. 2011, 2012 playoffs Drew Brees, Saints 49ers won 36 to 32. So not much historical data we have to go off of, but that just shows you that, you know, it's a unique spot for this Niners team. They're not really dogs at home. And I gave you all those crazy Brock Purdy stats in his career against the Seahawks team in his career, six and one straight up when he's been under three points or less, he's three, zero straight up. And against the spread at home, you know, we just. There's something about this 49ers team, especially at home and knowing that this is kind of the way it's been with Shanahan. Like we talked before the year, we both like the niners to be the 1 seed at plus 900 in the NFC, and it really was because their schedule was easy. But we've talked all the time about the up and down of the Niners. They're just the seesaw team. They come in fourth place the next you year, they come in first place, they get healthy next year, they have a ton of injuries. This year they've had the injuries. I mean, that's why Shannon's up for coach of the year number two right now in the voting, or I should say in the odds because they've done it with all these injuries. I mean, it's incredible what the Niners have been to do with those injuries. So I get why the pros are taking their position on Seahawks. Right. I blindly bet the Seahawks team all year on the road because they're just a covering machine. The coach gets this defense up. You know, Mike McDonald is also, I think maybe number three, number four in coach of the year odds just because it's been incredible, right?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Went out, got his quarterback and really has changed his defense. And at the end of the day, me and you were a line Chad. The reason we like this 49ers team is we just do not trust Sam Darnold. And you've seen it. The numbers back it up. These last five, six weeks, he's been very disappointed. I think he's number one or number two in the league in fumbles. He's just been.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, turnover machine.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, he's been really up and down, and the defense has kind of bailed him out and saved him. So you're basically. If you're back in Seoul, you are simply back in that defense. And I think we're both more comfortable back in Purdy, the Snyder's offense, and they've been there, done that, Right. Purdy's been to Super Bowls. He's lived up to these kind of moments in his. In his career. So I know it's crazy. Unique spot getting the Niners the dog. It does feel like we're the suckers here, but like I said, it's. I think the pros are missing this one. Back in the Seahawks team, I think this is finally time to hop off the train after we kind of got away with one last week when they were 7 1/2 point favorites.

[Chad Millman]

Speaking of suckers, back in the old 1800 days, when Indiana was first defining itself as the Hoosier State, they called their border rivals in Illinois the suckers. True story. Thank you for your attention to that matter.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, my God. I'm gonna let you have your moment, though, because you're right. Hoosiers, you guys are number one right now, baby. Today it might not end that way, but today as we sit here right now, it's.

[Chad Millman]

I'm gonna enjoy it. Listen, people. People dismiss the Midwest. They don't understand the laws and culture of the Midwest. You know, I'm. I'm married to a woman who's from New York City, who grew up in Staten island, who looks at everything as a flyover state, even though she went to Michigan, but she sees that as like an anomaly. Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Matt Mitchell's current home state. Those states don't matter to people, but they matter to me. Okay? So today we are going to give them their due.

[Simon Hunter]

I would say Chris Farley changed my opinion about the Midwest. That's why I will say that. Man, I did not think there was a sense of humor in that cluster. But Chris Farley, he opened my eyes.

[Chad Millman]

It's all sense of humor. It's all kindness and sense of humor in the Midwest.

[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

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[Chad Millman]

Now that's lemon pepper perfection. Zaxby's Lemon Pepper. Get some today.

[Simon Hunter]

Who's got the sauce? Zaxby's.

[Danny Shapiro]

What's up?

[Cam Jordan]

It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast. Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment about anything from teams and players making waves to to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season. The season of More on the off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage. Store more and do more with your data. Try them for [e-mail] hi, I'm Danny.

[Danny Shapiro]

Shapiro, host of the hit podcast Family Secrets.

[Simon Hunter]

We were in the car like a rolling stone came on and he said, there's a line in there about your mother. And I said, what?

[Chad Millman]

What I would do if I didn't.

[Simon Hunter]

Feel like I was being accepted is choose an identity that other people can't have.

[Chad Millman]

I knew something had happened to me in the middle of the night, but I couldn't hold on to what had happened.

[Danny Shapiro]

These are just a few of the moving and important stories I'll be holding space for on my upcoming 13th season of Family Secrets. Whether you've been on this journey with me from season one or are just joining the Family Secrets family, we're so happy to have you with us. I'll dive deep into the incredible power of secrets, the ones that shape our identities, test our relationships, and ultimately reveal who we truly are. Listen to Family secrets on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

The moments that shape us often begin with A simple question. What do I want my life to look like now? I'm Dr. Joy Hardin Bradford and on Therapy for Black Girls. We create space for honest conversations about identity, relationships, mental health and the choices that help us grow. As cybersecurity expert Camille Stewart Gloucester reminds.

[Simon Hunter]

Us, we are in a divisive time where our comments are weaponized against us. And so what we find is a lot of black women are standing up and speaking out because they feel the brunt of the pain.

[Chad Millman]

Each week we explore the tools and insights that help you move with purpose, whether you're navigating something new or returning to yourself. If you're ready for thoughtful guidance and grounded support, this is the place for you. Listen to Therapy for Black Girls on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts are wherever you get your podcasts.

[Simon Hunter]

Like if we're on the air here and I literally have my contract here and I'm looking at, you know, as soon as I sign this, I'm going to get a seven figure check. I've told them I won't be working here in two weeks. From the underground clubs that shape global music to the pastors and creatives who built a cultural empire, the Atlanta Is podcast uncovers the stories behind one of the most influential cities in the world. The thing I love about Atlanta is that it's a city of, of hustlers, man. Each episode explores a different chapter of Atlanta's rise, featuring conversations with ludicrous Will Packer, Pastor Jamal Bryant, DJ drama, and more. The full series is available to listen to now. I really just had never experienced anything like what was going on in the city as far as, like, you know, seeing so many young, black, affluent creatives in all walks of life.

[Chad Millman]

The church had dwindled almost to not nothing. And God said, this is your assignment.

[Cam Jordan]

And that's like how you know, like.

[Simon Hunter]

Okay, are you from Atlanta for real? I ain't got to say too much.

[Chad Millman]

I'm Grady, baby.

[Simon Hunter]

Shut up. Listen to Atlanta is on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

New Orleans plus three and a half at Atlanta actually moved down to three now, even with the Alave news, because everybody has been piling in from the wise guy perspective on the Saints. And as you noted, this is a wise guy week. It's not a huge public week, but, man, Atlanta's been playing great. To me, this is really about Tyler Shuck rookie of the year game. And I don't love, I don't love that a lave is out and we'll know so much more about Teo McMillan, who's right now, the odds on favorite from the day before could have a huge impact on what happens with Tyler Schuck.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and it's brutal. Losing a lot of it. Like, he's just been brutal. Oh, good. It feels like every time they draw up some type of play for him to get one on one, and he's just automatic. Feels like in the end zone with Shook. They've just had such great chemistry, especially down the stretch here. And, you know, maybe, like I said, maybe I'm too biased, too close to. I'm just happy at least see that pros are actually betting the same side with me, because, not gonna lie, I got a little worried when I got up to three and a half. I go, oh, my God, now they're giving us the hook on this. I could not believe that Kirk was now minus three and a half at home. But Kirk, gotta give him props, like, going through the tape, watching these last couple weeks, you know, he's gonna still have these Kirk games where he just is so immobile in the pocket. He looks so totally lost against the right type of defense. But overall, I gotta give him a ton of props. The way he's been playing down the stretch here, I think he's earned the right to be a starter next season. Might not be for Atlanta, but. But some team. You got to give this guy a chance at this point. Like, he totally has come back from this Achilles injury where, you know, last year we talked about he couldn't push off his back foot. I watch a tape, he's pushing off that back foot, no problem. He's stepping into throws, really good throws downfield. So matchup wise for us with the Saints team. What I'm trying to hang my hat on is what we talk a little bit about is, you know, they're actually pretty good against the past. Their weakness has been the rush. And as much as love and everything, Robinson's getting in this. You know, what he just did in two primetime games back to back. The last time they played, the Saints did really well at balling up Bijan Robinson. Like, they're. They're a team. Obviously, they see him twice a year, and they have so his entire career. You know, we always talk divisional teams. They have a different read on these in these type of games. So I do think there are ways for them, the Saints, to attack defensively and already talked about shuck. People might think he's dead in these games, and he just always finds a way to come back. He's been that way since he's been a starter where, you know, he just keeps on slinging it. And that game against Tennessee where they down 13, they never looked worried. He kept pushing the ball downfield and obviously we got lucky, right? They were kind of dead. And all of a sudden Ward got strip sacked for that touchdown. That brought spark to that Saints team. But you know, the Saints have always found a way since Chuck's become the starter to find ways to win. So plus three and a half with this kid and this offense, the way they've been moving the ball, I feel like we always have the opportunity to get the back door here. So I really, I really was hoping that maybe I could talk myself out of this one if it stayed at two and a half. But the fact that it's three and a half, never going to avoid it. Love this number for this Saints team. They've just been absolute covering machine down the stretch here.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, I think what you're saying about Kirk Cousins when you watch him on film right now and the way he's able to push off is you like that. Do you get it?

[Simon Hunter]

I do, but I thought it was gonna be another Hoosier reference. I'm kind of heartbroken. I thought you're gonna bring it back to the Hoosier.

[Chad Millman]

I'll find a way.

[Simon Hunter]

You need.

[Chad Millman]

Don't, don't you worry. It's 2026, my friend. New year, same sense of humor. Don't worry about me because I'm so old I can't change, right?

[Simon Hunter]

Can change. Your body DNA totally changes every seven years. I believe it totally redoes. You can change that. You choose not to change. Unfortunately, that's the problem.

[Chad Millman]

Well, now you really do sound like my wife. Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a 7 1/2 point favorite. I don't see how we're walking away from this like the. In the last 48 hours. I love this game even more. I might bet some alt lines in Cincinnati. I just think they're going to go out there and fling it. They don't give a shit. They can say they're building on next year. It doesn't matter. Joe Burrow just wants to go out and have a good time and play some ball and end the year on a high note and sling it to Jamar Chase and 4210. That's my call now.

[Simon Hunter]

Did something happen that made you like it more? You just like it because you like it more.

[Chad Millman]

I like it because I like it more.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't Know if I missed, missed something. But yeah, I'm right there with you. Like I talked, this is the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out, plays hard. Their offense has been rolling. I know they did have that horrible game. Like you said, Joe Burrow was contemplating life and if he's happy or not, and then went out and totally put up zero against a Ravens defense that has been suspect all season. Since then he's, you know, he's been lighting it up and that's just what we expect. The Joe Burrow when he's got Chase Higgins both playing. It's an offense that's an absolute juggernaut. The only thing it's been missing was the blocking. And you know, I keep talking about the offensive line. You can look at the numbers since Joe Flacco took over, they've been a top 15 some weeks, top 10 offensive line of pass protection, which is just blowing my mind when I look at this team. And it really has been the interior. Like the guards have been playing better. Everything. Just really impressive how the Bengals have turned around that offensive line. And if you're a Bengals fan, maybe another thing you could pitch a Joe bro to be like, got to come back next year, right? The offense line we've totally rebuilt. It's better where it felt like two weeks ago his foot was kind of out the door, like he was leaving it open to be like, I can move on potentially next year where I think he'll come back. This is the exact type of game where we talked about, Chad. This is the type of game they'll win big to kind of launch off into the off season of like see momentum. We ended the season. This is what we can be. And I'll give up the stat one more time. This Browns team off a straight up win since last year.06 against the spread, losing those games by almost 11 points per game. So they're not covering by 11 points per game. I should say so. They've just been absolutely terrible. This exact spot. They're just a team that does not. Not to handle winning and that we joke all the time, but it really is a young team at its core, right? This Browns team, they. They nailed this draft. I mean I went back and looked. They probably coming in this year. They're probably gonna have my highest grade for what they drafted this past draft class. But not the quarterback position. I've already talked about. Sanders has been graded as like the worst quarterback since he's taken over as a starter. Even worse than Geno Smith somehow, which Shocked me when I looked at the stats. But you feel like this is a total game where he just cannot keep up with Joe Bro on that offense. So I'm with Chad. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half.

[Chad Millman]

The real question, Simon. And I want Matt Mitchell to note this. I want him to remember this, I want him to play this. When we get to August and we're doing our team by team in division breakdowns and we're doing our quarterback rankings, are we suckers? Are we looking at Joe Burrow and his last six games and saying, oh my God, the guy was dominant and his offensive line was good? And are we thinking the value on the Bengals is going to be too high to win the division because they're going to be playing a relatively bad schedule and are we going to all of a sudden be going all in in value? Are we going to be as the Hoosiers used to say about their friends on their border state, are we going to be Illinois suckers and are we going to go all in backing Joe Burrow in the Bengals? I want us to remember this. I want us to be smart about this. I don't want us to get crazy because something's always going to happen to screw up that bet.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, I'll say this, my one buddy turned to me and said this is the only division of football that they could have. All four teams have a different starter come next year. Week one with all the drama with some more, what we've heard from Joe Burrow, the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers and the unknown obviously of the Browns and what they're going to do. And I was like, I, you're right, I probably never even thought about that. It's probably the only division in my lifetime that's ever been in that unique spot of having all four new starters come week one next year.

[Chad Millman]

Two years ago, this was the most competitive division in football. Remember, all teams had had reason win totals of eight and a half or higher. Yeah, it's like insane how quickly the league changes. Dallas a 3 1/2 point favorite at the New York Giants. We are very public on this. We both like Dallas. You're explaining the wise guys like the way Jackson Dart can move the ball around. We're definitely on the public side here because we do have reverse line movement with the public coming in on the Cowboys. But the line moving in the direction of the Giants doesn't have to get into the contest for me. But I, I, I'm not seeing it with the Giants.

[Simon Hunter]

I know, and I hate these Type ones because it's like either, either side, I feel like I'm leaving money on the table where it's like the line movements scared me enough where I'm not putting as much into Dallas and it's making me rethink where maybe I'm overlooking this Giants team too much. And this is probably a giant spot. But I told you my life is a better with Dakota. I blindly bet him in this exact spot. Right when he's playing the bad divisional team below.500. Dak beats the crap out of these type of teams in this exact spot. He just seems to win these games big. You know, maybe once again there's something I'm missing. Maybe there's a, a cold front or a storm coming in on Sunday. I don't think there is. I gotta check the weather. It looks pretty good. I just don't know why Dak being outdoors in the cold or the line moving as much as it has off. I just don't know what it's moved off of. Right. It's moved off professional money. So you know there's nothing going on injury wise for either team. Right. Was the Cowboys cut digs or it did.

[Chad Millman]

He signed with the Packers. Trayvon Diggs?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. So I don't know. It's. It's like he doesn't matter. He wasn't doing anything for the Cowboys anyway. So really bizarre line movement here. And like, like Chad said, we know it's the public side with Cowboys, but it's, it's Dak and Dallas against a bad team. Like I said, this is a long term winner. Taking special with Dak usually wins these games pretty big. So he's another guy that, you know, it's not his fault his team's been as bad as they were this year. He's. He has great numbers. He's performed basically every week. He's had a couple let down games. So that's usually against really good defenses. Not so much against the Giants team that yes, they have a pass rush but that secondary is just terrible. So terrible you expect him to throw all over the field. With CD Lamb and Pickens obviously playing for that new contract Green Bay in.

[Chad Millman]

Minnesota we talked about this one has moved from five and a half on Sunday night when we talked about it, said you got to grab it to 7. That we don't know who the packers quarterback is going to be. We do know that they recently signed Desmond Ritter to the practice squad and we expect them to rest a lot of starters. So that's why this game has Moved from five and a half to seven. The only reason it isn't moving more is because Max Brosmar is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings as far as we know. So like in terms of value, in terms of contest, I mentioned it only because of the Desmond Ritter news. I don't think there's a play to be had here if you are getting this number at seven.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and I'm obviously investing the Vikings, but if you don't have a single penny invested in the Vikings, you have no bet on this game. A couple books have popped. Green Bay seven and a half. I mean with all the, all the unknown, that to me is the position you want to be on at this point. You're getting now a touchdown and a half where it could be Malik Willis, which is, that's a big deal. Like if he is a player. Now if it's Desmond Ritter, obviously I think you're deader than dead. I can't see him moving the ball that well, especially after one week of practice against this Vikings defense. But yeah, I'm, it's a weird game because the numbers move too much to me. Like I, I like the Vikings. You can still get anything under seven. But like I said, a bunch of books are popping. Seven and a half. I, I just, I cannot give out the Vikings with a third string quarterback at seven and a half without knowing who the Green Bay quarterback is. If it's the third or fourth string guy. Yeah, I have no problem taking Minnesota if you want a ton of points. But yeah, this, this is what's tough about this week. The lines move so much just because the pros are hitting it so early. And yeah, this game I really am shocked to see again up to seven and a half. Hopefully like you, you know, listen to the show. You were able to get the five and a half on Minnesota, even the six and a half we gave it on Tuesday. But yeah, at this point the number to me is moving too much for me to really give out. The Vikings on minus 7.

[Chad Millman]

LA Chargers, we talked about it. 12 and a half point underdogs at Denver. I'm shocked this one hasn't moved to 13. I was really hoping it would because I wanted to bet it at 13. But one book actually has it. A very public book has it at eleven and a half. But like this is an imminently intriguing matchup to me because the Chargers defense is still good and that's who's going to be defending against Bo Nicks. I don't talk about unknowable. Why is Trey Lance, to me a 10 point difference from Justin Herbert. I don't know that he should be. And so I think he presents a dynamic with his legs that is a little bit different than what the Broncos have been able to prepare for. So it just feels like it's way too high to me.

[Simon Hunter]

You know, actually went and looked to see what is the difference just from my model and honestly it's right around that shot. I, I, I, yeah, I had it a nine point difference. So somebody that likes to, you know, on Herbert because it's fun because his fans think he's something that he's not, which is top five quarterback. Yeah, I think he's a good quarterback, just not top five quarterback. But I told you this is all pros. Like this is just simply a pros versus the book type of game. And yeah, there's hard rock just moved to 12 while we're doing it live. So clearly there's still money coming on the Chargers even late. But I just want to let people don't be scared off. Like you look at all the splits you're going to see all the tickets, all the money on this Chargers team. Like I said, I think it's simply just professionals. I don't know anyone Joe Public messing with this game unless they're throwing, you know, the Broncos in a five and a half teaser or taking the Broncos money line that just, I just cannot see the public lineup. But there's other games they're going to want to bet. The Broncos have disappointed, right, As a favorite. I've talked about it. Bo Nix this season two and nine is a favorite against the spread. He's just struggled in this spot. And you know, Chad, Chad talked about a little bit here with Trey Lance. It's, it is a obviously a step down from Herbert, but the legs I feel like mitigates a lot of it. What you've seen Herbert do so well. Obviously he's got a passing the ball. Herbert has bailed them out a ton with his legs and that's what is going to happen a lot here with Trey Lance. He's going to be on the run a ton and shockingly saw the Charger are going to play a lot of their starters from their offensive line just because those guys need work. Like if you look at the grades, they're basically 32nd, 31st in almost every category blocking wise. And you know, they obviously need to work on the pass block and run blocking. This is the perfect thing to do it against. The Broncos have one of the best fronts in all football so Trey Lance, he's gonna be running for his life. But like Chad just said this, it feels like a little bit too much of a movement with the Herbert news. Like if it was Herbert in this game, what is this? A 3.2 and a half point type of spread? 10 points feels like a lot. So if you do hear this and you can't get a 12 and a half, I would grab because I do think the pros keep betting this down. And like Chad said, there's one book already shown, 11 and a half. I think a couple books will follow suit as the week goes along here.

[Chad Millman]

Keenan Allen, a lot of incentives in this game. I don't know if he's going to be playing but if he does, look for those Keenan Allen props folks. Because if there's anything that there's. That's like it could be the perfect scenario. Like he's playing. They don't really have anything to lose. So just sling the ball. Find a way to get KEENAN ALLEN His 750 grand in incentives. If he has six plus receptions. Take a look. It's more than seven yards, I'll tell you that much. Detroit plus three. At Chicago, Caleb Williams is 270 yards away from being the first Chicago Bear ever to get 4,000 passing yards in a season. Ben Johnson was asked about this in his press conference and he said he thought it was an arbitrary number. Who cares? Reporters laughed and said, you must be new here because everyone here cares quite a bit. I looked at Caleb's two year stats through week 17 in his second year, 45 touchdown passes and only 12 picks. So last night my buddy who was over asked me while we were watching the game, the Miami Ohio State game, if you were to redraft the 2024 quarterback draft, what would you do? I still had Caleb number one and I still I and I. Drake made number two.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it's. We all overreact, right? I think Jaden Daniels was the unanimous number one pick coming to this year from that draft. So yeah, it's just I saw people are saying is this the greatest QB draft ever? A draft that I think Jay Daniel is the only one with the actual playoff win. So it's just we like to crown him early. That's what we do here. We like to crown them early. But I'd never waver. I, I said from the get go, Caleb was my number one guy. I mean one of my favorite shows ever was, I think it was we had on Seth Rollins was trying to talk you and Seth Rollins down about Getting rid of Justin Fields and how is a good thing. And Caleb Williams is a million times better in sets of the upside. And it's just funny looking back where now it's like there's no question, right? One's a. One's a proven winner that can make the big time throughs. The other one is a crazy athlete that can never find a way to win games so can be out of.

[Chad Millman]

The league in two years.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Caleb is just. You see why he's. You know, the guy was hyped up in high school. Seth Wickersham told us his dad had him getting interview prepped. He was in high school getting read for talking to the media for college in the NFL. Like this kid always has been the guy. The question was always going to be can he be a leader of men? Can this guy lead men? Can guys play hard for him through a whole season? Does he have that type of personality type? And you've seen it now, he is what we always talk about, right? You need that quarterback to be the type of alpha guy. He seems like he is it. You know, that game last week really was shocking. I just couldn't believe how great Caleb played in a game that had just the same amount of pressure to get the one seed. So I am not shocked talking about this game to see the pros coming on the spares team, right. They have been what we've talked about all season. They play teams close, they always find ways to win late. And that's just their identity. Right. They're just a slug it out type of team. And they have something the Lions don't have which is a run game. Like let's break it down for real. This Lions team, they cannot fall back on the run game like they have in the past. A lot of these games have fallen onto golf shoulders where this there's Bears team and they need to pick up four or five chunks to give, you know, a third and five or second and five to Caleb. They've been great to put them in that position. The lines have not been the same. I do think that is why so many pros think that this is the difference here. The Bears team will always be in a better position. But I think me and Chad have talked a little bit about this Bears team. We love them. But as a three point favorite, that's where I have to draw the line. This is a team like I talked about, they play close games. This Lions team, as bad as they've looked, there's still the number two, number three offense in all of football. They're still a team that has moved the ball. They just been so let down by their defense. So really unique spot, right? A really, really unique spot in the sense that a couple of weeks ago, the Lions were probably minus one here on the road. And the number has moved, what, four and a half points, five points now because the Bears have been playing so well done. The stretching the lines, they've fallen off the cliff. I mean, that last loss, I mean, it could be more embarrassing. That's why the public is, yeah. Totally out on them. Right? That was.

[Chad Millman]

That's, by the way, why I'm on.

[Simon Hunter]

This game, is how bad that game was.

[Chad Millman]

I'm fading that last game. Like, I'm fading the Bears brilliance. And I'm betting into the Lions complete.

[Simon Hunter]

And total failings, which, again, to me is scary because this type of year, I really do think you are who you are. Like, the lines are exactly who they are. If you go through and you look these last couple of weeks, no, this is who they are. They've totally faltered here and falling apart. And it's really golf. Golf has just been absolutely terrible with the turnovers, holding on the ball too long. Like, it just felt like all of a sudden he has zero pocket awareness. Like, he doesn't know there's a blitz coming. He's about to get smacked in three seconds. All of it. Golf has been so bad. But like you just said, this is the lowest we've been able to buy this Lions team in, I don't know, four years with Campbell. Like, this is just feels like this is low as it gets since we bet on them when they were, what, 0 and 8 and they come out pulled out, that win against the Minnesota Vikings. So it's been a long time for this Lions team. And, yeah, it's really, to me, about the numbers. So we'll ride with the books. The books are going to desperately need the Lions come Sunday, and that's a position I'm happy to be in. So grab the three. We'll see if we get lucky in three and a half couple. Three and a half, pops. But while we're doing the show live, Hard Rock just went to two and a half. So there is some pro money coming on the slides team now.

[Chad Millman]

Finally, Arizona, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are seven and a half point favorites. It's ticked up from seven into seven and a half since I made it Chad's Choice. Talk about you are who you are. And maybe I was leaning into it too hard for the Lions, but I'm definitely buying into a team that had a dreadful first half in prime time and then nearly won the game in, in the second half with a guy who probably should be the MVP and Matthew Stafford going against a team that really is who we think they are in the Arizona Cardinals. It's at seven. It's moved up to seven and a half. Still good with it. Still like it. Still want to put it in the contest. Los Angeles Rams. Fight, fight, fight.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and Arizona just looks like one of those teams that all these guys had booked their vacations. They're done, totally cooked. You know, last week saw some fight. I think they like had this crazy, crazy touchdown where Cincinnati couldn't tackle and all of a sudden it was like a 14, 14 point game. The final score is 37 14. Like Cincinnati just totally whooped and opened it up on them the rest of the game. And we've gone through it every game. They've just been blown out. Even Atlanta beat them by a touchdown. I think they beat him 26:19.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, they just like, they, they, they, they couldn't compete anymore. Like the second half of the year they just stopped being able to keep the games that were close in the first half of the year within contention and they just get blown out and they get blown out late.

[Simon Hunter]

And the last time they played. Speaking of a reaction, the Rams is the same exact team, whereas in Arizona is a minus nine and a half point favorite. So they're. Yeah, the number has moved against them. Now they're at home.

[Chad Millman]

Makes no sense.

[Simon Hunter]

Exactly. It just shows how the public and general public overreacts to it. So this is gonna be a huge need for the book. But every week whoever plays against the Arizona is going to be a need, obviously. But I'm with Chad. Those are the exact type of game that they need to get right. And McVeigh, you know it's not gonna be an easy week of practice. Right. It's gonna be a really hella week. They need this. They're gonna need to show up offensively and touch a little bit of the Stafford MVP stuff. There's no way they don't hear that stuff inside the locker room. Right? There's no way they don't hear you. Oh yeah, he's now not the favorite and I'm sure he's seen that. I think he has 42 touchdown passes. Basically if he throws for three touchdown passes, he'll have 45 touchdown passes and under 10 interceptions. Only two other quarterbacks in NFL history have ever done that. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers. They Both won the MVP this season. They did that. So there is a little bit of historical data where certain numbers he needs to get to. I think that look better to these beat writers. A lot of these people vote on MVP and I'm sure you've seen it. It's already been a heated week. Patriots.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God. So much fun.

[Simon Hunter]

Dan Arloski just getting killed because his agent reps Matthew Stafford's agent. And it's just they're coming for you. If you have an opinion on this in your sports media, they're really coming for you. And you know, it's we talked a little bit about it. I think Stafford came on the show, he was over plus 300 umbp. You've seen it come down a little bit. Just because what I said, it's like this is opinionated award. There's no it doesn't matter if Drake May is the big favorite here. It's really based on these opinions and how well Stafford's agent can sell it to all these people in media when like I said, he's been around 37 years old. He's been around a long time. That's going to ring true in a lot of these media guys when they go to vote. So, you know, we're all in on this Rams team. This is another spot where Arizona we're really banking on Arizona being a team that quit here. That's really what we're banking on here because if you just have a little bit of a letdown like we've seen this ramps team can be so motivated. How do they not put up 35, 40, 40 points here against Arizona defense? Chad so I know it's very chalky of a bet by you on Tuesday, but I'm supporting. I I love this Rams team.

[Chad Millman]

It's a narrative award. People in the media love a narrative. Simon says was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season game of the year on Sunday Night Football. Were both all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're all in on Mike Tomlin. Rah rah. We're all in on the Steelers as an underdog. We're all in on Aaron Rodgers. I'm mostly in because I think this Ravens defense has proven to be a fraud against the pass as the season is going on. They haven't gotten better. They can be taken in the middle of the field. They keep getting confused. I'm tired of seeing Kyle Hamilton and Roque on Swift trying to work it out after a big play like, like they Just haven't been good. I'm betting against the Ravens. I'm betting on Aaron Rodgers. Let's roll.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And it's such a fitting way for us in the season, right on this gross game, taking the gross dog in a spot. We always back Tomlins. So, you know, it's a really unique game in the sense what Chad's talking about here. It's a team that you kind of throw out the records and you just blindly take the dog historically out the record one more time just because it's my always be my favorite stat. This series since 2005, 30, 12 and 3. The dog in this matchup, 71% in the regular season, the underdog. So whether it's Tomlin's underdog or Harbaugh's underdog, these two coaches, when they match up, whichever team is the underdog, 25 and 7 against the spread in their history, it's crazy. It really is. When you go back through all the data, especially you know, when those Ben Roethlisberger years, right, they had the, the, the three Bs, they were dominant offensively. They were playing against a banged up Flacco and a horrible Ravens team. The Ravens kept winning those games, recovering and then they flipped. When this Pittsburgh team has now been playing backups, they've been covering winning. So I don't know about you, I'm hoping it's Lamar. I know it sounds crazy, but we talked about Lamar with this injuries to his legs. He's not had a superpower, he's not had his legs. And that's, that's such a weapon of his to miss. Where you saw it with Snoop Hundley, that felt like that was a big difference in that Green Bay game. Like they just couldn't contain him. And when he would break out and he'd use his legs, that was such a weapon. You saw that was lacking that Ravens offense. So we'll see today. I think Lamar is participating their walkthrough. Hopefully he gets cleared today and he should be the quarterback here and maybe we get a four, a four or four and a half by kickoff because Lamar is the quarterback. But I'm grabbing the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and bet this one down. Now I, I could see this one coming down. So unique spot. We love the Steelers here. We blindly bet it. We will see what the injury news is a Lamar, but you know, I, I just can't see it affecting the line too much. And most moves a point, maybe half a point.

[Chad Millman]

He did practice. He is. They are confident he will play. That's the latest. There you go. So there you go.

[Simon Hunter]

Maybe it won't. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it won't move. Because if Chad's giving you that info, that means that the books have known that for a little bit. They've not budged. So that's, that's really interesting. So yeah, it's it's held at three and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half Quick word from our sponsor at Hard Rock back. We'll come back on the other side. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bat Florida Sportsbook and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Buccaneers, Heat, Magic and panthers. It's week 18 and playoff spots are on the line. I think you know how it will play play out, Build a same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and turn game day into payday. Or if you're more into hardwood than the gridiron, you can put up shots on the NBA and college every night on Hard Rock Bet your home for hoops action all season long. You can even combine your football and basketball bets. If you've got a week 18 parlay, add an NBA bet or play player prop to turn it and turn up the payouts. And if you missed the start of the game, don't worry. Hard rockbat has live in game betting so you're never too late to bet any football or hoops game all season. Find a winner or grab that player prop you had circled and bet live in just a few easy taps. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for whenever you're in Florida and also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado and Michigan. Coming soon to more states too. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open up the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets. Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it gambling problem call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. All right, Simon Hunter, what are your biggest bets?

[Simon Hunter]

Pull up those pants and be a man. Before I do it, a couple people asked about futures. I'll do it super quick just from before the season asking what I have left from our show that got lost in the shuffle. I basically need a miracle. I need the Bills to somehow for super bowl futures it says I need a miracle. I need to build somehow to make it to super bowl to beat the 49ers at plus 65 to 1. So that's the one I've left. I obviously gave out the Eagles to over the Chiefs. That one's deader than dead 49ers to be the ones in the NFC plus 700 still alive. I couldn't believe it. I gave out worst record Arizona Cardinals 75 1. I have a couple tickets on that one game away they are three I think three and 13 or three and 14. Obviously the Raiders have two losses so that that one was really close to coming out and still alive. Most receiving yards Jackson Smith a Jigba at 35 to 1. He is leading by I think 70 yards. So yeah, not, not the best year for future but that's why we give out crazy long shots. You're always yeah crazy stuff for this week. Biggest bets Like I said, it's a little little weird because it is the week before the playoffs and there's so much college football going on. Biggest position I took obviously early in the week I took a large position on Minnesota Vikings took a large position just because I thought that Green Bay wouldn't be playing their starters. That number has moved luckily accordingly. I took a pretty big position on this this 49ers team at +1/2. I'm a little worried about it because like I said it is the the pros are so heavily on the other side. So you know, if you want to join me in my prime. My bigger bet for Saturday I'll take Carolina up to 7 and a half. I'll take the 49ers up to 7 and a half. It's probably minus 120 maybe minus 110 just because Carolina is now up back up to plus 3. The juice isn't too bad But I like both of them to cover at least being a touchdown underdog. I just can't see the 49ers getting blunt or Carolina again, blunt on these type of games. Just you see it time and time again, right? Teams fighting for divisional, divisional games that decides playoff positioning tend to be very close games. So I do like that. I wouldn't tease it because teasers now are a ripoff. I think if you tease this, it's like minus 140. You don't need the Panthers mine or plus nine and a half. Just stake the number up to adjust it to seven and a half. That's going to be one of my bigger bets. And as people know, Chad's already talked a little bit about it. Cincinnati, love that side. Love the Rams. I'm just putting their money lines together, taking a pretty big bet on both those sides just to win straight up. Yeah, like I said, very, very wonky week. It's just be careful because it's really the pros heading these lines. The public usually set this week out just because it is such a wild week.

[Chad Millman]

Speaking of money lines, Moneyline underdog Parlay.

[Cam Jordan]

My dog likes your dog.

[Simon Hunter]

Your dog likes my dog.

[Chad Millman]

I've got Pittsburgh, Carolina, San Francisco, New Orleans.

[Simon Hunter]

Love it.

[Chad Millman]

Moneyline favorite, you just mentioned two of them. I had Cincinnati and the Rams. I have Denver -5 and a half. I got Minnesota.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't hate like, again, it's, it's a weird week. We're like Dallas. I like, I like Philly. I know Philly's playing their backups, but yeah, Tanner McKee just looks like an absolute stud. Like, I think this could be a starter and this is the exact type of game where, you know, he knows he's playing for that, right? He's playing for that Matt Flynn type of deal. He wants that Matt Flynn money. So, yeah, I like the Eagles now. The numbers move so much. I said if you could got. If you could have got watching at plus seven, that, that was a really nice number. But now that it's under seven, especially now the Eagles money line, I think that's good value there. So, yeah, there's a bunch of ways you can mismatch if you don't love the Denver's Denver line that Chad gave out. I don't hate throwing Dallas's money line in there. The Eagles money line. But yeah, Rams money line. Since these money line like these we, we've seen time to take them these big favorites at in the week 18. These teams do tend to show up where these other teams, they're already ready for that vacation. They're just. They're just there to get that paycheck.

[Chad Millman]

Sheriff versus Square, who do you got?

[Simon Hunter]

I guess I gotta do it because I've just hyped it up so much at this point. Give me. Give me the 49ers plus one, plus one and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals. I'll take the seven and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Ram seven and a half, and then Bengals, seven and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I know. I thought about that. One of them's gonna lose. Obviously. Now.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't know. I'm with you. I'm drinking the Kool Aid. I like them both.

[Chad Millman]

All right, listen. Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today. Go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, fight, fight. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get the eavesdrop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions we will regret. Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube. You can also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever. Get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Sunday.

[Simon Hunter]

Love you. This ain't Ray Nitschke and Dick Butkus and Deacon Jones over there. So let's start kicking some ass. This team is not better.

[Cam Jordan]

They're not even good.

[Danny Shapiro]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Chad Millman]

Guaranteed Human.