Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: Sharp or Square – SHARP NFL Week 3 Bets

Date: September 19, 2025

Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" features hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter breaking down their favorite bets, sharp and square angles, and contrarian takes for NFL Week 3 matchups. Their mission: help casual bettors ("squares") make smarter wagers and dissect where the "wiseguys" (sharps) are putting their money. They cover key trends, overreactions in the market, and candidly debate the games they're eyeing for their top five contest picks. The hosts also share survivor pool advice and round-robin moneyline parlay strategies. Throughout, they emphasize the pitfalls of overreacting to early season results and the danger of falling for too much "chalk".

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Housekeeping and Record Check-In (00:30)

• Record: 6-4 through two weeks; 4–1 in Week 1, 2–3 in Week 2.
• Chad: “This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.” (00:03)
• Emphasize importance of trend awareness but caution against “letting trends lead the way.”

Market Movements and Wise Guy Hotline (01:32–04:21)

• General Theme: Heavy pro interest in divisional underdogs and fading week-to-week overreactions.
• Bucks vs. Jets: Public action pushing Jets line down, but sharp consensus forming on Bucks despite OL injuries.
  • Simon: “All the pros I talked to… love the Bucks. I thought it was Jets love too, but it’s not." (01:32)
• Week of the Road Division Dogs: Wiseguys loving Texans, Dolphins, Denver—all teams 0–2 ATS as road divisional dogs (historical 80% cover rate in this spot since 2003).
  • Simon: “People gotta hold their nose and realize the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver.” (02:33)
• Sharp Sides Getting Love: Browns, Eagles, Bears.
• Pushback: Chiefs are "most hated pick" by professionals this week.

Game-by-Game Breakdowns and Betting Angles

1. Browns (+7.5) vs. Packers (04:25)

• The number dropped from 8.5, indicating some sharp influence.
• Chad’s Confession: Bet Browns at +8.5 because “This is the game wiseguys and real bettors should love. If this underdog doesn’t cover, I don’t know if anything we know about betting is real anymore.” (05:05, 09:02)
• Simon: Cites overwhelming statistical trend—home dogs of 7+ points in Weeks 1–9 cover at a 59% rate, 18–1–2 ATS (last 3 years).
• Quote: “It’s just overreaction to two weeks of data and the general public thinking they know these teams.” – Simon (06:13)
• Takeaway: Both are betting Browns despite feeling “sick” about it due to strong market and historical trends.

2. Texans (+1.5) at Jaguars (09:47)

• Chad: Makes Houston his “rock and a hard place” bet—uncertainty about CJ Stroud, but thinks this is more an anti-Jacksonville play than a pro-Texans one.
  • Chad: “This is as much a bet against Jacksonville as it is a bet on the Texans.” (10:53)
• Simon: Absolutely loves Houston due to the trend (0–2 ATS dogs, low total, divisional setup), and Texans' recent dominance in this matchup.
• Strong stats on AFC South dogs and Stroud’s strong history as an underdog.
• Quote: “There’s a lot of head fakes with these professional bettors… just moved the line and then bet it right back.” – Simon (11:31)
• Disagreement on Trends: Chad wants to temper dependence on trends, but Simon insists the data matters.

3. Patriots (+1.5) vs. Steelers (17:04)

• Debate over declining Steelers defense and uncertainty around Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye.
• Simon: “If you take this spot, you’re believing in Drake Maye, and that’s tough. I just can't get over the fact the Patriots are still a dog.” (17:45)
• Chad: Skeptical, not trusting Maye yet, referencing his inconsistency.

4. Eagles (-3) at Rams (21:02)

• Sharp Movement: Early sharp love for Rams faded once line hit 3—now sharp side is Eagles.
• Simon: Outlines Rams’ historical struggles as road dogs against good teams (5–9 ATS), worries about their O-line vs. Eagles’ front seven.
  • “Historically, this is a bad spot for McVay/Stafford against good teams.” (22:30)
• Chad: Wants to be on the Eagles; nervous about offensive struggles, but sees Rams’ hot start as potentially fraudulent.
• Unique Talk: Both joke about “tush push” penalty prop markets (27:16).

5. Colts (-3.5) at Titans (29:45)

• Line moved from 4.5 to 3.5.
• Chad: Cautions on being “too chalky,” holding onto Jonathan Taylor vs. worst rush defense.
• Simon: Loves Colts run game, but notes Titans fit winless road divisional dog trend. “They’re saying, ‘Show us Daniel Jones.’” (31:35)

6. Broncos (+2.5) at Chargers (39:37)

• Simon’s ‘Simon Says’ Bet: Broncos.
• Loves Denver due to overreaction to Chargers’ two primetime games and situational fatigue. Trends point to “buy low” on Broncos.
  • Simon: “Everything trends-wise flashes Denver, and on-field it feels about right.” (43:37)
  • “This is as low as you’ll get for Denver.” (44:34)
• Divisional Scheduling Note: Divisional games are “so intense”; teams playing three straight go 1–6 ATS in this spot. (44:46)

7. Bears (+1.5) vs. Cowboys – Brass Balls Bet of the Week (45:24)

• Line moved from Bears -1.5 to +1.5
• Chad: “The world is against my hometown Chicago…It’s time to make the Bears our brass balls bet of the week.” (47:21)
• Simon: Lays out strong trends supporting Dak vs. bad teams, but thinks line move is a huge overreaction.
  • Brass balls reasoning: “When you get kicked in the dick, you gotta have brass balls. Otherwise it’s gonna hurt.” – Chad (48:14)
• Both admit it’s a “hold your nose and bet the number” pick rather than any belief in Chicago’s performance.

8. Chiefs (-5.5) at Giants – Square Bet of the Week (53:41)

• Chad: Bet KC at -5.5; acknowledges this is the square side. “Not buying out.”
• Simon: “Sharp side is the Giants, but I’m supporting you. Chiefs likely win, but don’t always cover these big numbers.” (53:41–55:32)
• Discussion of how this year’s “chalk” keeps hitting, but historically this would have been a classic trap.

Other Notes

• Lions at Ravens: Strong early lean on Lions when at +5.5, but not in top contest choices after line movement.
• Saints (+7.5): Heavy bet for Simon, but wary of being too split between survivor and spread.

Big Bets and Notable Picks (59:08)

• Simon’s Heaviest Bets: Panthers (+5.5/6), Texans (+1.5), Broncos (+2.5), Browns (+7.5/+8.5), Eagles (-3), Cardinals (+2.5/3), Saints (+7.5).
• Not pushing for Saints/Seahawks contest pick due to conflicted survivor/ATS positions.

Round Robin & Survivor Strategy (62:22–68:08)

Underdog Moneyline Round Robin Parlay

• Texans, Denver, Chicago, Panthers, Bengals (62:43–64:04)

Moneyline Favorites Parlay

• Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, Bucks, Seahawks (64:21–65:07)

Survivor Pool

• Strongest lean: Seattle Seahawks.
• Other considered: Chiefs, Bills.
  • Simon: “This is the best opportune time for the Seahawks. I don’t think there’s a better spot the rest of the way.” (65:29)

Final Consensus & Contest Pool (68:36–70:41)

• Core Likely Five (to be finalized Sunday):
  • Browns
  • Texans
  • Eagles
  • Denver
  • (5th pick a toss-up among Colts, Bears, Patriots)
• Emphasis on dog-heavy card; both hosts wary of “super chalk.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is the game where we say to ourselves, we know what we’re doing. We see the money going in the opposite direction.” – Chad on Browns, (05:05)
• “People gotta hold their nose and realize the pros love the Dolphins, Texans, and Denver.” – Simon, (02:33)
• “When you get kicked in the dick, you gotta have brass balls. Otherwise it's gonna hurt.” – Chad, (48:14)
• “Every trend you talk about is, is flashing bright, bright green…everything says bet the Browns. We are betting the Browns.” – Chad, (09:02)
• “If the Browns don’t cover, I’m never betting another underdog as long as we live.” – Chad, (09:31)
• “This is a week for ugly dogs. The numbers just moved too much.” – Simon, (59:08)
• “Survivor’s making my head spin this week.” – Chad, (62:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:32 – Wise Guy Hotline: Early sharp movement and divisional dog theme
• 04:25 – Browns vs. Packers discussion
• 09:47 – Texans vs. Jaguars deep dive
• 17:04 – Patriots vs. Steelers breakdown
• 21:02 – Eagles vs. Rams line movement and matchup
• 29:45 – Colts vs. Titans, weighing chalk concerns
• 39:37 – Broncos vs. Chargers, Simon’s pick of the week
• 45:24 – Bears vs. Cowboys, “Brass Balls Bet”
• 53:41 – Chiefs vs. Giants, “Square Bet of the Week”
• 59:08 – Simon’s largest bets
• 62:22 – Survivor and moneyline round robin strategy

Tone & Style

• Candid, self-deprecating, and debate-driven, with Chad often voicing anxiety or skepticism while Simon pushes data-driven contrarian angles.
• Numerous playful exchanges about “brass balls” bets, “vibes,” “being sick to your stomach,” and the agony/ecstasy of betting ugly underdogs.
• Both hosts stress process over results and enjoy poking fun at trends, overreactions, and each other.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode is a must-listen for anyone betting NFL Week 3 or in a weekly contest/survivor pool. Chad and Simon dissect market movement, point out professional sharp angles, and equip listeners with actionable strategies—especially when betting divisional underdogs, fading overreactions, and identifying value in a season marked by big favorites. Their blend of stats, sharp humor, and personal betting experience delivers practical intel with entertainment.

Listen to their Sunday morning show on YouTube for final contest decisions and check Twitter/X for last-minute updates.

Note: Ads, sponsorship reads, and unrelated segments were skipped per instruction.