The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharper Square – SHARP NFL Week 4 Bets (September 25, 2025)

Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Podcast Network: The Volume via iHeartPodcasts
Episode Theme: Deep-dive analysis and betting preview for NFL Week 4 with an emphasis on making listeners' picks sharper, discussing wiseguy vs. public angles, and uncovering the best values and angles in the betting markets.

Episode Overview

This week’s “Sharper Square” sees Chad and professional bettor Simon Hunter chopping up the NFL Week 4 slate, zeroing in on a handful of key games, lines, and sharp-vs-square sides, and wrestling with market movement, injury noise, and public narratives. Their mission: to finalize the five bets they agree are the sharpest and most contest-worthy—with lively debate, trend talk, memorable analogies, and their trademark banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of the Market & “Sharp Calls” (03:49)

• Sharp bets (wiseguy consensus):
  • Pros heavily on Tampa Bay, Carolina Panthers, Detroit, Cowboys, and Chiefs
  • Unexpected: Pros also joining the Rams side, not Colts
• Disputed or avoided by pros:
  • Commanders, Saints, Seahawks, and Jets all getting sharp love, but Simon and Chad tepid.
• Quote:
  • Simon: “A lot of professional this week about different sides, but I knew they would be on for sure for the Chiefs and the Bucs.” (05:30)

2. Game-by-Game Betting Analysis

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (06:26)

• Modeling flashes green for Arizona, but both hosts have “the Kyler Murray hesitations.”
• Historical trend: Seahawks always beat Cardinals in this spot.
• Strategy: Chad and Simon will bet Arizona as a dog but NOT use in contest.
• Quote:
  • “I just bet him [Kyler] as a dog where it’s like I don’t try to overthink it.” – Simon (08:17)

LA Chargers (-6.5) vs. NY Giants (10:41)

• Chad loving the Chargers, worried about being off consensus.
• Jackson Dart (“media hype,” “unknown factor”) now starting for Giants.
• Simon: Some pro money on Giants, public on Chargers, but likes fading the rookie.
• Noted Herbert trend: >3.5-point favorite, he beats up bad teams (11-0 ATS).
• Quote:
  • “Don’t overthink it. It’s Herbert against a bad defense.” – Simon (11:00)
  • “This is totally going in the four box. 100%.” – Chad (13:21)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (15:26)

• Clear wiseguy side: Bucs.
• Bucks undervalued, Eagles overvalued; both teams banged up.
• Simon: Loves the hook at 3.5, especially with possible Bucs reinforcements (Godwin, Wirfs).
• Historical angle on Bucks stopping Eagles’ signature plays (tush push).
• Quote:
  • “This is the type of game the Bucs do play close.” – Simon (15:26)
  • “With the hook, three and a half, I can’t avoid it... I really love this number.” – Simon (18:25)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (19:15)

• Early bet on Atlanta (-3) with assumption Jaden Daniels would play.
• Now injury uncertainty, possibly Penix or Mariota at QB.
• Simon: 90% chance not putting Atlanta in; too many QB questions.
• Quote:
  • “Penix... just needs time, he just needs starts... I've gone back and watched the Penix tape and he's got issues.” – Simon (20:21)

Detroit Lions (-9) vs. Cleveland Browns (“Brass Balls Bet”)

• Line fluctuation: 8.5–9.5, bouncing as pros decide their thresholds.
• Chad and Simon emphatically like Detroit; quote important Dan Campbell trends:
  • After big wins, Lions are 22-6 ATS; after 7+ point win, 19-5 ATS.
• This is a “steamroller” team in rhythm; caution on Browns’ run D, but expect Lions to wear down opponent.
• Quote:
  • “When [the Lions] get rolling... they just steamroll teams. They don’t take the foot off the gas.” – Simon (25:18)

Buffalo Bills (-16.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

• Giant spread “never a contest play,” question marks for Bills’ defense.
• Josh Allen historically poor ATS as double-digit favorite (6-10-2).
• Both agree Bills for Survivor, but not for contest.
• Quote:
  • “It’s just a huge number... and that Bills defense, I don’t have the confidence in them.” – Simon (30:29)

LA Rams (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Both love Rams despite line in limbo; only fear is getting sucked in by hot but unproven Colts.
• Model says should open higher; Rams D likely to give Colts problems.
• Quote:
  • “My biggest fear question is how does this Rams defense slow down Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? ... But in this exact spot, I still think this should be closer to four, four and a half.” – Simon (33:17)

San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• Some line movement around Purdy’s ankle; both watched practice tape and declare him “totally fine.”
• Historical trends say Jags travel east-to-west poorly; Chad is dubious of ancient trends.
• Quotes:
  • “After I watched Brock Purdy run around in practice, I feel really good about the bet right now.” – Chad (37:49)
  • “As a doctor, fake doctor, I couldn’t believe how good he looked.” – Simon (38:12)
  • “[Jaguars] are 3–13 straight up, 3–12 ATS going from east to west in this spot.” – Simon (39:16)

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5 / +3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (Rock and a Hard Place Play)

• Sharp money and books lining up on the Chiefs; public sees Ravens as a “gift.”
• Ravens D “decimated,” big questions about run D; KC offense struggling but trending up if Worthy returns.
• Historical Mahomes advantage on short rest, but both agree KC is “scary, not comfortable.”
• Quotes:
  • “This one really is about trusting Mahomes, this matchup and fading a Ravens team that just looks dysfunctioned.” – Simon (44:53)
  • “Chiefs are nothing to me.” – Chad (47:36)
  • “The Chiefs feels scary, you know what I mean?” – Chad (47:45)

Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Line flip-flopping; little contest enthusiasm, but Simon would bet Raiders as underdogs.
• Bears’ “post-hero-QB” fade trend: 6–10 SU, 5–11 ATS after 3+ pass TD game since 2018.
• Quote:
  • “It’s just data going back many years, Chad, with your Bears team... they just don’t perform well.” – Simon (48:40)

Dallas Cowboys (+7) vs. Green Bay Packers

• Simon: “Not banging the table,” but can’t pass up seven-point home dog, citing very strong modern trend.
• Trend: Home dogs of 7+ are 19-1-2 ATS in the last 3 years (51:44).
• Quote:
  • “I really, really, really trust Dak when he’s a big dog in this spot.” – Simon (52:37)

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. New York Jets

• Simon likes Miami (despite poor primetime trends) due to matchup edge vs. Jets’ bad secondary.
• Chad: Not interested in this one.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On being lucky to do this job
  • “Dude, I’m not gonna lie to you, I feel so lucky... I get to talk about betting on football.” – Chad (02:04)
• On ancient trend skepticism
  • “I can’t abide when you’re giving me a trend from the Jaguars that is 30 years in the making... you know that doesn’t mean anything.” – Chad (41:24)
• On finding comfort in “sharp” picks
  • “The Ravens feels off. The Chiefs feels scary.” – Chad (47:45)
• Comic banter:
  • “Do you know who those guys are? No. Do they fly in World War I?” – Chad & Simon (50:36)

Segment Timestamps

• Sharp Calls & Market Overview: 03:49–05:46
• Seattle–Arizona: 06:26–08:40
• Chargers–Giants: 08:40–13:21
• Bucs–Eagles: 13:21–18:25
• Falcons–Commanders: 19:15–22:34
• Lions–Browns: 22:51–26:48
• Bills–Saints: 27:12–32:01
• Rams–Colts: 32:23–36:26
• 49ers–Jaguars: 37:01–41:24
• Chiefs–Ravens: 43:41–47:36
• Bears–Raiders: 47:44–50:18
• Cowboys–Packers: 50:56–52:37
• Dolphins–Jets: 53:54–54:16

Contest Bets & Portfolio Update

Biggest Bets (54:58):

• Rams, Buccaneers, and Chiefs (all straight up)
• Moneyline Round Robin Parlay: Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers
• Favorites Parlay: Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams, Broncos
• Survivor recommendation: Texans
• Sharp vs. Square picks: Chad—49ers -3; Simon—Rams -3

Final Recap: Contest Standings (58:42)

• Primary contest candidates: Chargers -6.5, Bucs +3.5, Atlanta (if +2.5), Lions -9, Rams -3.5, Niners -3, Chiefs +2.5
• Pending line/injury updates may shuffle some final picks.

Tone & Delivery

• Conversational, lightly comedic, and self-aware
• Frequent self-deprecation and banter about trends, “fake doctor” evaluations of player practice tape, and gently roasted sports media personalities
• Relentless focus on finding real value and not chasing narratives/“media parroting”

For Listeners Who Haven’t Heard the Episode

This episode offers sharp, actionable insight with a focus on contest entries, line value, and signals from the wiseguy betting community. You’ll get early-week leans, strategic contest advice, key trends (with healthy skepticism), and plenty of entertaining side chatter—making this a great resource for making your own NFL Week 4 bets sharper.