B (3:49)

I have to answer this phone. All right.

C (3:54)

Ring, ring, telephone ring.

B (3:57)

Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, let's dive right into the games they love with us. Sharp calls right off the top. Tampa, I think I knew that was in the professional side. Honestly, I'm shocked we haven't gotten the three. I really did think that the three and a half was gonna be a gift and it was going to disappear and just go back to three with the injuries the Eagles have and the Tampa getting guys back, but luckily we're on the professional side there. The pros actually love Carolina, which I know is a game we haven't talked much about. I'm trying to avoid it. I. I got away with it last week in Carolina. I wanted to be on the Patriots. Number is egregious. I'm just avoiding it. I know a lot of pros, though, like that Panther side. Detroit gamer on pros love it. Like, every guy I talked to loved it. Eight and a half. They've been taking it at nine. Taking at nine and a half. So I think our view of it getting under 10, that was the key. Chiefs, I know, again, we're going to dive into. The pros love Cowboys. The pros love same side. Bur on. And, you know, last, Last but not least, that that Rams game. Shocking. I thought it was going to be all pros on the cold side. A lot of pros are joining us on that Ram side.

C (5:11)

So interesting.

B (5:13)

A lot of love for our picks. What what they hate for us. Talk to a lot of pros. I like the Commanders, a lot of guys that love the Saints, a lot of guys that love the Seahawks and a lot of guys that really, really love that matchup for that jets team. I I just can't get there. So yeah, interesting back and forth. A lot of professional this week about different sides, but I, I, I, I knew they would be on the for sure for the Chiefs and the Bucks. The other games honestly surprised me just because they are such chalky favorites. So yeah, excited to dive into this week and all these lines and kind of get into these ones.

C (5:46)

All right, well there's one game they didn't mention, which I thought for sure you would say that they're on the opposite side of us and we're going to talk about that in a minute. But first, let's talk about Thursday night. Just quickly because you mentioned they're on Seattle and we've liked Arizona since Sunday night. We were waiting for Arizona to get to plus numbers and it did. On Tuesday they were at minus one and a half. Now they're at plus one and a half. I want to pull the trigger on Arizona. I can't figure out why I'm not and it's like, is it because I don't trust Kyler Murray? Help me get over the hump here. My model is completely flashing green for.

B (6:26)

The Cardinals just because historically the Seahawks have one here. It doesn't matter who their quarterback has been, who the coach has been, what their defense has been. For some reason the Seahawks have owned the Cardinals in this matchup. And I think your hesitation for both of us is just we think the Seahawks are a better team right now and health does matter. Short weeks does matter. But I'm like you. I can't avoid it. It's. It's Kyler Murray as a dog. I've said it years ago. I don't care. No matter what, I take him as a dog even when he has a bad matchup and his offensive lines banged up and everything. It's just all negative and I hate it because it's making me like Arizona even more. But I'm not going to put in our contest. I know that for sure. But I'm still on the same side. I I was looking for ways to get there on Seahawks and I just can't, can't get there right now with this team that last year, I mean last week I should say we were on it for Survivor and it was the dream scenario. But Chad knows like anytime a team wins by 30 and now they're facing a team on a short week on the road, it just historically isn't a good spot. So the trends don't love the Seahawks either. The only, only trends I like the Seahawks is simply their matchup with the Cardinals. So yeah, we can keep it moving. Not a game on a force and I am on the Cardinals, but just there's no way I could talk myself into putting this in the contest.

C (7:41)

I, I don't want to walk away from for one sec because I just want to get to why would I like the Seahawks or the Cardinals better on the field? Like, the Seahawks are so much more dominant right now. They're amazing defensively. I'm still not quite sold on Sam Darnold. He hasn't necessarily had to win them a game the way their defense and running game has been winning them a game, you know, against the Steelers. And then last week was just sort of a trouncing. Is that why, like, what am I liking on the field here? I have no read of it.

B (8:17)

I think the Cardinals are well coached and they play hard. Like their defense with all their injuries. They played really hard, played really well last week. It, to me, I think our hesitation just is Kyler. That's to me is the issue. We're just, we don't trust him. That's why I just bet him as a dog where it's like I don't try to overthink it. He covers the dog as a favorite. He is just atrocious. So he's a dog. This is usually the games he. The type of games he covers. So.

C (8:40)

All right. One of the games that I'm surprised the wise guys didn't bring up in the conversation here is the LA Chargers are now six and a half point favorites against the Giants. This took a lot of our attention on Tuesday. Too much, honestly. Because while I was loving the Chargers at six, it moved to six and a half before I could grab it while we were talking about it on the show. And it, it remained the pick that I love. Chad loves the Chargers. I got it at six and a half. It's steady at six and a half. It's as we were talking, it was announced that Jackson Dart was going to take over for Russell Wilson. Look, there is a lot of love right now for the Giants defensive line and what they were able to do against Patrick Mahomes and make him uncomfortable. And the real failings for the Giants were their inability on offense to execute, take advantage of situations, score points. My feeling on this is the whole Jackson Dart thing is a sort of. Is a classic media parroting the organization's talking points. Like you listen to Collinsworth talk about Chris Collinsworth, talk about Jackson Dart on Sunday night and you think he had the swagger and talent of Joe Namath. Right. The way that they just sort of said way he walks in and gets the guys together and he works so hard and you know, his athletic ability. Is this not a guy who was like, who snuck into the bottom of the first round to a team that passed on him at the top of the draft? Like, is the expectations that the Chargers do not know how to defend against a quarterback who can run? Like, I don't know Patrick Mahomes is the expectations the Giants patrons will just dominate the Chargers injured offensive line. What are the wise guys? If they are betting on the Giants and you didn't mention them, seeing that should make me uncomfortable because I still love this pick.

B (10:41)

Yeah. I would say to Collinsworth, he's a man in his 70s or I don't know if he's in his 80s, but I think he's in the 70s and.

C (10:47)

He'S not in his 80s. Guy, come on.

B (10:49)

He's probably on inedible. So anyone him probably seems cool.

C (10:51)

No, he's not.

B (10:53)

I think he is, man. Some of the stuff he says, you're just like, there's no way this guy is sober. That's why I think a lot of.

C (10:58)

People in sports come on.

B (11:00)

But yeah, I just. Dart is the unknown. So maybe that's why people love him. But for me in this game, like, I'm gonna support you even though back to back weeks you've taken the same team against the Giants. And I get your logic and your reasoning. It really was fading. This bad team against superior talent. And that's what the Chargers are. They're superior talent against a bad team that's, you know, not properly coached. The fear here, the reason pros aren't talking about this one is just because we don't know what we're going to get. Dart could come out and with his legs or whatever, have a good game even though he's not that good. Right. Because there's no tape. It's just going to be a very simplified offense for him to run. But I'm, I'm still on your side. Even though the pros aren't talking. I'm still on Your charger side. There's still sixes out there. You can grab the sixes. I mean, Hard Rock's at six here. Here in Jersey. I know that you got six and a half. They, they're, they've been fluctuating all day. So there's clear professional money on the giant side. While the public is. They're like us. They're going to be heavy on the Chargers. All the teasers, every money line parlay. I know people are talking about them. Survivor. So, yeah, this to me is. Don't ever think it. It's horrible, that defense against a rookie quarterback in his first start. It's Herbert against a bad defense. And I think I saw some crazy stat, basically when he's a favorite above three and a half Herbert, I think he's 11. 0 against the spread. So it's, it's like I talked about. He just beats up on bad teams. That's what Herbert's whole career, even when he's had horrible coaching, you get him against a bad defense, he beats him up. So I'll keep supporting you, brother. If we get this one in at five and a half, six and a half in our contest, either number I. I probably wouldn't mind put it in. My only fear is Dart having that first start. Miracle, pulling a rabbit out of his ass kind of game where it's like, I can't believe it. Me and you. By the end of the day, I'd be like, I can't believe he somehow covered it. Just because I don't know. They move the ball against this Chargers team if they just double neighbors. I just don't know how they do it. So excited to see what they're gonna do. Read option. They're gonna do some. Something funky with him and his running because his comp. I know it sounds weird. His comp coming out was Jalen hurts, the way he runs with the ball, how tough he is, his throw, his throwing style. So, yeah, we'll see. It's. It's gonna be definitely a game that went from being corner TV to one of my more main four games, most likely.

C (13:21)

Oh, brother. This is totally going in the four box. 100% going in the four box. I can't. I can't wait for this game. I'm probably going to be sick to my stomach watching this whole game because I also hate those 1pm games from the Meadowlands. It's like you're watching it, you know, in a house of worship. It's so freaking quiet early in those games. It feels like Everybody is just waking up. So yeah, this is a. We're taking a stand. We've seen a lot of changes the past couple years. We've seen favorites covering more and more and more good teams beating bad teams, bad quarterbacks not being able to execute, bad coaches not being able to get their teams prepared. Really good coaches. This is a coaching matchup. Mismatch. This is a quarterback mismatch. The Chargers defense as a whole I think is is better than the Giants defense even though their defensive line is elite. Last week was the game the Browns and the packers were like. If the Browns don't cover as eight and a half point underdogs with an elite defense, we're never betting underdogs at home in this spot again. But I do think this is season. We're still seeing a trend where you want to bet the better team. I know it's dangerous. I still like the Chargers. Philadelphia, Tampa Bay. Let's get back to a more traditional professional position. Tampa Bay 3 1/2 point underdog. You mentioned it. The wise guys love it. This was Simon says. Look, the Bucks are riddled with injuries on the offensive line. They don't have Mike Evans but reports are Tristan Wurfs may play at left tackle for the Bucs. Chris Godwin may be back for the Bucks from that injury. A Mecca Buka just seems to get better literally every snap. I like this because I think the Bucks and Baker are just perpetually undervalued and the Eagles are perpetually overvalued. So there's always going to be a little bit of value. I don't the matchups. Eagles have injuries too but I think you're just getting a little bit of a better value here.

B (15:26)

Yeah, I disagree somewhat with that. St I think that the Eagles were undervalued after their Week 1 performance against Dallas. Rightly so. Should have lost that game and since then covered two straight and they're another team that we said they could easily be 0 and 3 but now the public is totally coming around on them and they've bet this number up. So this is the type of game where if it was two and a half wouldn't be that confidant. It's all about the number here with this Bucks team and Baker because it is a bad spot for Baker. Right. He's covered three straight games with three straight fourth quarter comebacks that how long can you keep this up? Right. It's like there's only so many times you can ask him to make those type of game winning drives. But my View of it is just this is the type of game that the Bucks do play close. Right. A really talented team that they have the guys that can stop the tush push. This is one of the few teams that got a guy like Vita versus that can stop this type of play. And that's a big deal when that Eagles team relies so heavy on him for certain spots. So, yeah. Could the Eagles attack this secondary with Hertz and you know, really open this game up? Sure. But he's gonna have to do it. The. The holes they're gonna sell out just like every other team's been doing it so far. Stopping Barkley and they're the perfect team to do it. They just don't allow 100 yard rushers. So bad matchup for the Eagles team. They have their own injuries. Right. They might be down their number two, number three cornerbacks, both linebackers. I mean, Jahad Campbell came in today with a sleeve on his arm and I believe I forget who else. Someone had a brace on their knee. Might have been Zach Braun, like the other linebacker at a brace on his knee. The Eagles are banged up like they just went through a battle. So they're just, just like the Bucks. They're. They're equally banged up and not as healthy. So it's shocking how much love the public has for the Eagles team where I think the game temperature field temp supposed to be like 105. And this historically has just been a bad spot for the Eagles. Eagles haven't lost in a year. The last time they lost was this Bucks team. And you see it with Baker, he's not the best as a favorite. He's kind of like Kyler in this sense that as a dog, especially since he's been the Buccaneers, he's been an autoplay where it's like he just. Even when he loses those games as a dog, he always keeps them close. Get like the back door is always open. So to me with the hook, three and a half. I can't avoid it. Love the number. So much love. Love this matchup for Baker and God. If God would come back, I'm almost positive he's gonna come back with Worth. That's going to be so huge, having him in a book on the outside. Like you just. You need someone that Quinion Mitchell can focus on, then you're going to beat the Eagles without second receiver. That's truly the biggest weakness of this defense that they just cannot figure out. Now you're bringing guys up from the practice squad to maybe pick that position. And take on Chris Godwin. So yeah, I love this matchup. Love the matchup as well for Bucky Irving coming out of the backfield. So to me make the line two and a half. It's still three and a half calls from key numbers here. I just once again, if it's three and a half for our contest, I'm probably gonna force try to take it Sunday. I just I've heavily bet this one. I really love this number.

C (18:25)

I don't think you're gonna have to force me. I've already I bet it the worst number. I bet it at 3 so I don't feel like there's going to be any arm twisting on this. Where we've talked about the Chargers. That was my Chad Loves pick. We've talked about the Bucs. That was Simon says. I want to bring up Washington. We owe people a brass balls and you and I haven't discussed our brass balls and our rock and hard play. So it's going to be a surprise to both of us at this point.

A (18:49)

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C (19:15)

Bring the boom XBOOM Washington at Atlanta Atlanta's down to one. Atlanta opened at three on Sunday. This was the first game I bet on Sunday. It's the first game I talked about on the Sunday night show. I actually bet Atlanta thinking that Jaden Daniels was going to be playing. Actually not really knowing if he was going to be playing but expecting him to be playing. And so we don't know yet. He said it's up to the doctors. He practiced. The line is moved in the Falcons direction. Like the cov to me is saying if we can get the Falcons at a more beneficial number in the contest and it's a team that just came off a blowout and was shut out. The trends hashtag trendsetter are all going to be in our favor for the Falcons. Are we going to have to put the Falcons in so we don't have four favorites and an underdog Again, It's.

B (20:21)

A week to weekly. I have no issues having a ton of favorites this week. That's that's least of my worries. But I there's a 90 chance that I refuse to put in this Atlanta team. I just. The penic stuff, man, he's not good. And like I keep saying, he's very young. I don't want to judge him too hard because he needs time, he just needs starts, he needs reps and he needs to play against different style of defenses. So I just can't get there with Penix. Like you said, this is an amazing spot for Atlanta. Typically, you know, a team that gets rolled like that and now they're a dog at home against potentially a quarterback coming off a serious injury that seems like he's rushing him back a little bit. It's just a, a weird spot to be back at the commander. So I think your read is right. I mean your initial read on the three was spot on. Like that was a great number. Anyone out there that has a three, you don't need to touch or watch this game in any way. Yeah, have a, have a great closing line value and whatever, but I don't know if I can get there. I just, I've gone back and watched the Pennix tape and he's got issues and as you see these defenses get more tape on them, it's gonna be interesting to see how he progresses through his career because there's not many lefties in the league and I know that's a stupid thing, but like there's certain drops and certain throws he makes where it's like, is this why there's no left uses? Because this exact, this guy the exact reason why or is it just a fluky thing that there just aren't that many left handed quarterbacks? But he's just been unlucky to me in a couple ways. And now in this matchup, you expect after getting embarrassed, you know, Raheem Morris and his defense to bounce back. They should play better Atlanta. So I get where Chad's coming from here. I just, I have no confidence right now in the quarterback and I just have major questions where Washington, even though he's banged up Daniels, the. This is the exact team he dominates. Like a bad team indoors on turf. So it's. If he was fully healthy, there's no way I would touch Elena. But with the question marks, if it is Mariota and if we are able to get the early number right, if we can get two and a half against Mariota, plus two and a half is Elena as a dog. I could be talking to a chat for our contest maybe, but at this number, no way. It's. It's moved too much. This is start quickly becoming a commander's number in my opinion.

C (22:34)

We'll see what we get on Sunday. This could be in the conversation.

B (22:37)

We owe people 10 games I like more than this one.

C (22:40)

Okay, well that's a strong statement. Cleveland at Detroit. We owe people a brass balls. I wonder if we should have a conversation about Detroit. It's -9 at as a brass balls game.

B (22:51)

It was brass balls. I love Detroit.

C (22:53)

All right, so then let's do it. Detroit Lions minus nine. They're going to be a our brass balls bed of the week.

B (23:05)

You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.

C (23:10)

And I'm pretty sure I just scared the bejesus out of every 87 year old neighbor of my mother in law's on either side of the walls in her apartment. This has been a wacky line because we saw it in real time on Tuesday. I went to bet this right after we recorded the show. It had been at eight and a half. I convinced myself the Lions were the right side. The Browns had their moment in the exact right spot under perfect conditions against the packers when I went to bet the game, seriously, in the time it took me to log into one of the sportsbooks, it had moved from eight and a half to nine painted across the board. And then Simon, you and me were on the phone after the recording and after I made the bet, it moved back down to eight and a half and then it got back up to nine and a half and now it's back down to nine. So clearly there's, you know, some people who are finding the threshold for where they want to bet the Browns and some people finding the threshold for where they want to bet the Lions. I'm still thrilled about betting Lions. I think this is such a good spot for them.

B (24:18)

Yeah, I love them. And another game where you dive in the trends, you're like, what? What's the bad part of this Lion's team is this big of a favorite. That's what I'm trying to find here because it's another line that it feels like again, sometimes you're just seeing the field clearly and you're reading the lines right. And this is another game, though, I just didn't get why it wasn't 10. Now it is 10. Like one of the more public books in all of America is at 10. So I assume most of their books will follow that way. But the trends are interesting, right? Our guy Evan Abrams had an amazing trend about this exact spot with Dan Campbell. So he basically when he just when they have a absolutely Insane blowout, right? They beat a team last week by six plus points. They're 22 and six against the spread the following game. So after they blow a team out, they just keep it rolling.

C (25:02)

Yeah, they like to. The Ben Johnson said this the other day. Someone asked him after the Bills, the Bears got destroyed by the Lions, was he annoyed that they didn't kick a field goal. And he said about the Lions, they score touchdowns, that's what they do.

B (25:18)

Again, it's just predicates to what Dan Campbell is, right? This is all stats under Dan Campbell. So they win by 6, the next game is 22 and 6. If they win 7 by 7 plus they're 1905 the game after against the spread. So it's like when they get rolling like this, when the offense is clicking, they just steamroll teams. They don't take the foot off the gas. Right. Dan Campbell likes it when the team is rolling like that. He doesn't want to slow it down. So we talked about it. There's ways to neutralize this front four of the Browns. And that is going to be really interesting here because they are arguably the greatest run defense we've ever seen. When you look at the stats, what they've done through three weeks against really good run team. I mean Josh Jacobs, stud, Derek Henry, stud. Even week one, Jace Brown with, with Brielle Burrow, he's pretty good. Like when that. When he was healthy with Burrow, they shut them all down. So I can't wait. Like this is arguably the best running tackle football. The hammer and the nail of, you know, the one, two punch of Gibbs and Montgomery. So I love it. I think we're on the same page that, you know, might be a little scary here in the very beginning, but as the game goes along, I, I love the idea of a big win here for this Lions team.

C (26:31)

We've done this with the Lions before. I think a year or two ago we bet them at minus 14. It might have been against the Jags and that someone, whoever it was, that came out to a 10 nothing lead and then the Lions rolled and all of a sudden it was like 55, 10. That's what the same boat.

B (26:48)

It's always scary betting these big spreads because we see how it can go a million different ways. Right. Golf has the off day. We're dead. But yeah, historically. Have no fear, people. Dan Campbell in this spot, it's been pretty profitable over the last couple years. And he backed it up last week with that Ravensbach. Chad said they blew out the Bears they came out and they laid it on that Ravens team. So they're just, they're cruising since week one. This is arguably one of the best teams in all football.

C (27:12)

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B (30:29)

Yeah, I bet this, I bet the Bills. I'm like you, I, I, there's never, I was never going to have this in the contest. I just, I can't have any confidence in that. Bill's defense. This is really a Josh Allen bet and a fate of Spencer Rattler who just looks so bad and inconsistent where sure he might get him down there. How many touchdowns are they really going to score? Right. And that will be the introducing part where they've just been settling for so many field goals in this Kellenmore offense. Do they just start getting super aggressive and stop kicking the threes and start going for the touchdown? So just a historical spot for Josh Allen. Not great. Right. As a 10 point favorite in his career, he's 610 and 2 against the spread. So 38% in this exact spot. So it, it's just not something I'm a banging the table for. It's really about the number and how bad that Saints team is that I'll probably be more in on backing them at home. But these type of scenarios, back to back, really tough road teams flying across the country, then flying again up, back up north. It just feels like a horrible spot for the state team against, you know, a Bill scene that's on extended rest and it'll be interesting to see what that defense is like. They've had more times if they got any of these guys back. But yeah, if they're fully healthy at Oliver's in all that, I, I would have loved this spot for this Bills team but they just, they have so many injuries. It's just, you can't ignore it. There are ways for the Saints team to attack it if they have the right, right stuff going that day. So I'm glad we're on the same page. We'll prevent it. No way. Mixed to our contest.

C (31:54)

I mean we might be eating some square Soup on Sunday.

B (31:59)

Can't always bet dogs, Jen.

C (32:01)

I'm just saying we are. We are square. Quentin Tarantino, Reservoir Dogs this week is.

B (32:08)

I just love the home teams. That's what I found. My, like, that's why I'm happy you're, like, all on the Chargers. And, you know, I, I just needed some road team for us in our contest where it's like, that was my biggest thing I noticed right away. I was like, I love the home teams this week, which is very random.

C (32:23)

Speaking of home teams, Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are three and a half point favorites. We've kind of just been hoping this would get to three. It hasn't gotten there.

B (32:35)

It did for a second, which was crazy because I was like, oh, it's happening. And it stopped. Chad. It went right back to three and a half.

C (32:42)

I didn't even see. When did it happen? At like 2 in the morning?

B (32:44)

No, no, normal time. Like midday. Because just again, people, you can set alerts in your phone for different things like this on apps I shall not mention, and it will tell you when it moves. So, yeah, I got an alert right away, try to send a runner to go bet it for me, and literally 10 minutes later, it's gone. So that's Chad's right. This is going to stay, I believe, at three and a half.

C (33:04)

The professor, it actually looks like it might move to four based on the price, but based on the juice.

B (33:08)

Okay, I didn't see that.

C (33:13)

Yeah.

B (33:17)

Yeah, I guess you're right. I'm looking at it right now. Yeah, that's a, That's a possibility. I, I love the ramps. And we've already talked about it. It's. We're selling a little bit on the Colts team. We do, we love it. I've. I'm a big believer. Been betting them every week, it feels like. And this is the type of game, just like the Chargers last week. Like, you win this, I gotta start making big changes and big updates. Like, I haven't moved the model enough to respect this Colts team, but I can't help but get over and look at who they played, right? Like a Miami, a Denver and a Tennessee team. And it's easy early in the year here to get sucked in on these teams that look so well against bad teams, just because the way the schedule breaks, where you have really good teams playing against other really good teams who still don't know who they are, and it's like, well, this team looks sloppy. They don't look good, they don't look Disciplined. So like looking at my model, it's crazy how much higher I have Colts rated than these other teams. That would shock people. But in this exact spot, I still think this should be closer. What I opened at four, four and a half. Like when I first saw the opening line, I was shocked by it. But the more you dive into it, it's like this ramps team, they usually beat up on teams like this Colts team that know have a struggling secondary that can be passed on. Even Bo Nix was moving the ball against this Colts secondary. So yeah, I, I look at this matchup very favorable for this Rams team. My biggest fear question is how does this Rams defense slow down Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? Because they are real problem right now. Like the best, arguably the best 12 combo in football. Quarterback, running back just. He's incredible right now. Daniel Jones against the blitz. But like I said, it's. It's gonna be interesting how well he did against his other defense where Denver is legit but we talked about was a bad spot for Denver. How can he perform against a ramps team that is going to be very hungry, is going to be desperate. And you know, we've seen that stat. This rams team, they were 90 their last 12 games. Their only three losses were against that Eagles team. So this is a team that has been playing really well. We're getting probably a little bit of a discount here because of a fluky blocked field goal that if they won, probably stays F4 and F. Maybe the professionals do put it up to five and a half.

C (35:36)

I was gonna say it might get higher.

B (35:38)

Yeah, it could. Because like I told you, the professionals I've talked to, they're like us. They like the Rams here. But there is pushback. Like I do know some pros that they're not getting off the Daniel Jones train yet. They just think him running this stike in the Shanahan type of offense is just working for this Colts team right now. So I know me and Chad went to three, but I'm. I'm glad to see a three and a half because that's what's gonna be in our contest. So that's what I've been betting all week. It's one of my bigger bets. I'm gonna stick with it ends up being our contest. I got no issue with it. I just. I gotta trust the Rams in this spot, in this matchup and sell an overvalued Colts team and just hope they cool off. Because we've seen a football. Sometimes it takes 5, 6 weeks for these teams. To really actually cool off. So you might be stepping right in front of this Colts train, but I got to do it with this number.

C (36:26)

I feel the same exact way as you do. I would have no hesitation with this one at all. And I might end up betting the three and a half today. I'm trying to be really, really patient.

B (36:35)

Hard Rock that.

C (36:36)

What's that?

B (36:37)

A hard place going to rock?

C (36:38)

Well, I. Look, I was going to. We can do that. We can make this, the rock and the hard place Hard Rock better the week. I think we have two other games coming up, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Baltimore Kansas City that can fill that too. So I think we should focus on those. So let's leave Rams minus three and a half. I don't think it's a hard spot because we actually both love the Rams.

B (37:01)

Right.

C (37:02)

You know what I mean?

B (37:02)

Yeah, that's fair.

C (37:03)

Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco still at minus 3. No Nick Bosa Schefter did say Purdy has a good chance to play. Adam Schefter said he had a good chance to play earlier this week. Simon, I don't know about you, but you said on Tuesday you wanted to watch film of Brock Purdy in practice. I watched 2 minutes and 50 seconds of Brock Purdy practicing on YouTube to some very calming, ethereal music. That was the soundtrack. I saw him take snaps and drop back. I saw him in the shotgun. I saw him throw a couple of bombs. I throw him. I saw him do one throw where he was running straightforward and sort of throwing off of one foot. He looked brilliant.

B (37:49)

I know.

C (37:50)

So clearly he's totally fine because we are Internet doctors. The line has moved in that direction. It did move to three and a half. It might be three at Hard Rock right now, but I do think there's a mostly three and a halfs out there. I. I'm glad I got the Niners at three because I feel really good about the bet right now.

B (38:12)

Yeah, Even three and a half again. Another. I can't believe. I just love these home truck favorites. But it's like another line I trust with this team in this matchup and the pretty things bizarre because they made it as if. It's like. As if his toe was like hanging off his foot and it was going to be three, four weeks of an injury and it's like he set out one game and like Chad said, he moved. He was moving. You could not tell he was ever injured. He looked the exact same as he did in early August when he was fully rested and healthy. So I'M with Chad as a doctor, fake doctor. I don't know what to make of it. I couldn't believe how good he looked. And that's like you just said, that's why the number to me, it has moved. It feels like. Why would they sit him if he's moving like that? If he's looking like that in practice on a Tuesday and a Wednesday, why would you sit him for Mac Jones that, you know, as good as Mac played last week, right? Leaving that comeback drive. You saw it. It's like it's. It is Mac Jones. He is a backup quarterback. Purdy is just a totally different level. And you know, my, My question here is Trevor Lawrence versus solid defense. I know Nick Bosa is now out.

C (39:16)

Feels like to bet on Robert Salah. It is what we're doing.

B (39:20)

It honestly is. It's also, I mean, it's been a pretty. But it's been on Salah in the sense of these matchups that, you know, it's. It's never been good for this Jaguars team. Right. We can, we can look at the data. I think it's the last 20 years, whenever they're traveling from the east coast to the West coast, they're 3 and 13 straight up, 3 and 12 against the spread in this exact spot. So this is historically, Jaguar scene doesn't travel well. And that I think honestly says a lot about Trevor where it's like even going through his career, his offense has come out slow in these exact type of games where it's like they. Whatever it is, getting off the plane, whatever that old saying is, like that one team looks like they're coming out shut out of a cannon. The Jags never look like that in this exact spot when they go on the road, especially after a win. So I, I look at this as once again a team that Jaguars could be very good offensively as a season progressives. I just see that Trevor's having problems learning this offense. I know he's been burned by the drops. Right. I think he.

C (40:18)

Yeah, I think he's a huge amount of drops.

B (40:20)

Yeah. Like they lead the league in drops right now. I don't know if that's gonna be a quick fix and especially when you're going against a matchup against a solid defense that, you know. You know, even with their injuries, their defense has been swarming and really good against these receivers. So, yeah, it's more chalk another spot where it's a home team I love. And yeah, Hard Rock still minus three. Go grab it. Because I do think Purdy gets cleared. This gets up to three and a half, four by game time. So it's all about line value. I would still. If you're stuck in a state that you only get minus three and a half, I'd still take it. Like I still think that's a, that's a good price on this number, have this game closer to four. So if it gets to four and a half and you haven't made a bet, yes, you can take a position on the Jaguars. I just, I wouldn't do it. I just have major questions about this Jaguars team that they feel very, very fortunate to be two in one. But also another team that could easily be three now. So a really weird team to try to get a read on this year, this Jaguars team. But I think me and you're on the same page 49ers, we know we're getting from this defense right now. The only, only true unknown is the pretty injury and we both agreed he looked well in practice.

C (41:24)

I can't abide when you're giving me a trend from the Jaguars that is 30 years in the making. You know that doesn't mean anything. 20 years in the making. It doesn't mean anything.

B (41:40)

To you.

C (41:44)

To the history, to logic. I'm with you.

B (41:49)

I think Trevor Lawrence is trash right into that Russian winter that whose Chad is. Chad would say, who cares what happened to Napoleon? Who cares what happened to the Germans? We go into Russia. I don't care what happened 30 years ago. History matters, Chad. Learn history.

C (42:04)

Oh my God, that is a ridiculous analogy.

B (42:07)

It's not. You're the same person that just says, well these things don't matter. I'm in 20 year goes. No, it matters. It's all connected, brother. Well figure it out one way.

C (42:15)

One way or the other. We want to be on the same side here. And either you're going to be proven right with your historical irrelevant correlation, not causation references, or we're going to be proven right because The San Francisco 49ers are a better team and Trevor Lawrence just isn't a very good quarterback. At least not right now. Baltimore, Kansas City plus two and a half. Simon, this one has been lingering in two and a half. I think this is going to be our rock and a hard place. Hard rock. Bed of the week. You mentioned it at the top of the show. This is a sharp call. Like the wise guys. Like the Chiefs here. You've been pounding the table for the Chiefs all week. I listened to the show on Tuesday. Like you made a case for why you're taking the Chiefs here. The Ravens defense is still decimated, right? Like Van Noy injured, the middle of that defensive line injured. They are especially challenged against the run. Here's the problem. Chiefs cannot run, and Patrick Mahomes has zero weapons. So this is just us believing in the magic of Steve Spagnolo, believing that the Ravens are troubled right now, believing that Patrick Mahomes can do something path. Patrick Mahomes like, is that correct?

B (43:41)

No, they're. They get Worthy's. Worthy's coming back. He's a weapon.

C (43:44)

Oh, he is. I didn't see that. Okay.

B (43:46)

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that's a big deal. As far as their run game goes, I agree with you on that. Like, Pacheco has not looked at Samson's injury. Whatever, whatever it is, losing that half a step in football, it just matters, right? It's just. Yeah, you can just tell them guys don't have the burst anymore. But, you know, I look at this Chiefs team that they have faced really tough run defenses too. So that's why I'm not trying to be too hard on it. It's like, yeah, you played the Eagles, the Chargers. You know, even that Giants matchup against that front four wasn't ideal to run the ball against them. You expect it to be much easier against a Ravens team that literally cannot stop the run in any way. And do they have the guys that can make the adjustments? I don't know. It just feels like with the injuries they've had, the Ravens, they don't know if they can make those type of adjustments. And it's also a unique spot of the short week for Mahomes. Right. When Mahomes plays teams. Coming off a short week, he's been very profitable in this spot going back many years. Chad, I know you hate that, but going back many years, I don't mind.

C (44:46)

If it's the same player going back many years, but if you're giving me a team and a franchise, trends. Oh, Jesus.

B (44:53)

They go back 50 years. Yeah, I just. Mahomes in this exact spot, short week against teams coming off short week 18, three straight up in his career. Lamar pretty good short week. You know, like kind of cancels out. He's five and three in his career, but when he's just on normal wrestling More is 29 and 13 straight up. So there is a little bit of a difference. Right. He's much better, obviously, when he has more rest. But this number, I'm still confident. But I'm glad some threes popped up because I. I could not get over the fact that I wasn't gonna be able to get a Chiefs 3. I just couldn't believe this is really gonna stay at two and a half. Like this is really the books are that confidence in this Chiefs team where I'm like Chad, where it's like I'm bed the number. I'm betting my homes in the spot, but I'm not confident in this chief's team, honestly, where it's like they got a ton of time to get it right, but right now it just ain't right. Like there's little things that keep going wrong and they're just trying to keep finding their identity. So this one really is about trusting my homes, this matchup and fading a Ravens team that just looks dysfunctioned. And as great as Lamar's playing, I've seen all the stats how incredible he has been. I mean this is no doubt the best defense he's faced this year. So it'll be interesting to see how he plays against his defense where Lamar is no doubt should not be sitting here at 1 and 2 and like I can't, you know, saying he's gonna be one in three after this game, which I think he will be as crazy I think, but stunning. It happens, right? It's just teams with bad matchups and still would bet them to win their division, still think they'll make the playoffs as long as Lamar is healthy. So it's not that big of a deal because the season is so long right now. But I get it. We're betting against a very desperate team in this Ravens team that got embarrassed in a prime time spot. Usually be the other way. But the, the every probably talk he likes the Chiefs on this side and I would say every Joe Public guy I've bumped into in the sportsbook last two days is just all about this race. You believe I'm getting Ravens minus two and a half here. Like what a. What a gift. So that's why, like I said, the chat. Yeah, I'm happy the three pops because I couldn't believe every book was holding at two and a half. I was thinking some professionals have to come in on the Ravens at some point. So one book here in Jersey has moved to three. So it's not a lot of professional money on this Raven side. It really is the pros and the books lining up here on the Chiefs. So can't avoid it. Gotta take it. It's a good number. Probably should be closer to a pick. We're just getting a ton of undervalued Chiefs love right now just because what Chad said, right. It's. People don't know where he's coming back. They doubt this offense, all their weaknesses and it's, it's Lamar after a loss, right. It's, it feels like it's a pretty easy bet for most people. So yes, it's, it's scary. It's two and a half still in our, I believe in our contest. But if you can get the three right now, just betting the people, I would grab that three on the Chiefs team. It feels like that's a good number. They do lose. It won't be able by more than a field goal.

C (47:36)

Chiefs are nothing to me.

B (47:39)

That's fair.

C (47:39)

You say bet the Ravens, I'm like, ugh, that feels, that doesn't feel right.

B (47:44)

Betting the Chiefs win.

C (47:45)

But I agree the Ravens feels off. The Chiefs feels scary. You know what I mean? Like you just instinctively institutional knowledge, whatever, you get that, that sort of gut reaction to it that's built into all the knowledge you've been gathering and that's how I feel about it. Real quickly I want to talk about the, the Bears and the Raiders only because this game has been flip flopping. On Tuesday the Raiders one and a half point dogs today they're one point favorites. You can find both a bunch of places strictly for the contest. I don't know, do we like the rave if we can get the Raiders as underdogs, are we thinking that's what we want to do? Like I don't feel that strongly about this team.

B (48:24)

I do. I love Raiders here but I will make you forced it in because I.

C (48:28)

Know I don't, I don't like, I don't know that we're gonna have a fifth that we like better. But you know, at the end of the show let's sort of. We will review where I think we stand.

B (48:40)

Yeah, I'm with you. It's, it's just a game where I just love the number right. There was still a couple one and a half plus one and a half's in the Raiders there and I just loved it. And you know it's, it's data going back many years, Chad, with your Bears team that they just don't perform well. Doesn't matter who the new quarterback is after they have incredible quarterback play and you know, you dive into all the trends since 2018, the Bears 6 and 10 straight up 5 and 11 against the spread after they have a quarterback that throws for three plus touchdowns. I don't know, is that a Mitch Trubisky Justin Field stat or is Caleb Williams going to be a part of that? Because he looked really good in that game with no pass rush. And that's my fear is that when he. When the right type of matchups, he's going to excel. Caleb Williams when he's got no one in his face and this type of matchup. But they will be blitzing them. They will be having Max Crosby come off the edge. Either side he wants to line up on, it'll just be different to me. So I can't help but be a little weary of this Bears team coming off such a huge win. Young team now on the road against a Raiders team that got embarrassed. And once again it's another pro spot. The pros are backing this Raiders team. The public very heavy on this Bears team. So I, I won't. It's not a game I'm gonna force in. Right. It was really about betting the number, like plus one and a half. There's still one or two out there. I think you just have to grab that for this matchup. Is this going to make another contest? Probably not. But I do, I do really like this spot for this Raiders team that you know, has looked bad. I'm not gonna. Not that. Not gonna deny the public sentiment, but I think they're not as bad as people perceive right now. They're not three points worse than this Bears team, which this. That's what this line is saying.

C (50:18)

Listen, for all I know, that stat about the Bears historically could be a Mike Phipps, Vince Evans, Bob Avellini stat that since 2018.

B (50:30)

That stat. That's what it said. Yeah.

C (50:32)

Too bad. Do you know because. Do you know who those guys are?

B (50:36)

No. Do they fly in World War I.

C (50:39)

That might have been Sid Luckman, who also still may be until Caleb Williams can prove it. The greatest quarterback in the history of the Chicago bears from the 1940s. All right, Simon, biggest bets.

B (50:53)

Well, let's get to another game. We didn't talk to that. We'll have to.

C (50:56)

Oh, okay. I don't have it on my list. Tell me.

B (50:58)

Dallas, we never talked about. They're plus seven. It's no different than us taking Cleveland last week. It really is not. You're getting a seven point dog at home in the first couple weeks of the season and we've all seen that stat, right. Like this last couple years, these dogs in this exact spot, it's been very profitable. And I don't know about you, my only fear is it's Leflore. Like he is owned Dallas, I think it's some crazy stat like they're 50 against the spread or straight up against this Dallas team. And my biggest memory is Chad. We did, me and Chad did a live party with all of our listeners and the game we bet on was the Green bay packers is 7.7 and a half point dog.

C (51:42)

Oh yeah.

B (51:42)

In the playoffs.

C (51:43)

In the playoffs.

B (51:44)

It was over five minutes into that game. So I will put that out there right now. Dallas gets owned by Green Bay. If you want to avoid this one. Totally get it. But this is another undervalued Dax spot where I love Dak in these exact spots when he's ever he's a big dog. Dak tends to cover because he's so offensively gifted and they have so many injuries in the Cowboys. Again, not a game I'm gonna bang the table for. But I just want to read the stats because it is so important about what Cleveland did last week as a big home dog. And it's the same exact spot here. So seven point home dog through games one and nine when they're in this exact spot. So they're a big home dog. More than seven points or more. They're 191 and 2 in the last three years in this exact spot.

C (52:25)

Oh my God.

B (52:25)

And go back further because I know Chad hates going back further since 2020, 38, 10 and 2.

C (52:33)

I don't mind 2020. I don't mind anything. You don't mind 2015?

B (52:37)

Yeah. You hate 2018 apparently too. But I'm just saying like this is, this is a real trend in the modern era that is carried weight here that the rules have changed that have benefited these high powered great quarterback in these offenses. But the public Betsy's lines up too much when we get good value in these dogs. That's really what that keeps telling me. So hold your nose. If you can still get the plus seven, go grab it. I'm. I'm praying this is six and a half so we don't have to put it in contest. But because of that number, I have to do it. And I really, really, really trust Dak when he's a big dog in the spot. The last one. I'm a sucker for this game. Miami's -2 and a half against this jets team. This is an 03 Miami team at home. And I know the trends actually hate this team in the spot. Like they're actually terrible in prime time. Two has been terrible at prime time and at home. But he just needs a win by a field goal against his jets team for his first win of the season. I can't overstate how big of a deal that is where it's like I know the jets are just as desperate, they're owing three as well. But I felt like they shot their shot last week and they fell short where Miami did as well against the Bills. But they never really were as close as this jets team was. Right. They were never in a position that they simply got to stop. They were going to win that game that the jets were. So I, I can't believe it's still two and a half and I know some professionals who are on the jets side, but their secondary of the jets is so bad. This is how Miami can beat teams. This is one of the few teams they actually match up well against. So I have a model that minus three, it's minus two and a half. I, I wanted to hear where you were at in this Miami game or you're not even thought about it at all?

C (54:11)

Haven't thought about it.

B (54:12)

That's fair.

C (54:13)

Not interested. Not interested at all.

A (54:16)

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C (54:48)

Give me your biggest bets. Big time play. My goodness, what a play. Every time he does another one, we thought he's made his all time best and look at this.

B (54:58)

Unbelievable. Definitely, definitely Rams. Started off with the Rams. I, I, I've put a decent amount of Rams on the Bucks. I've taken a pretty large position. By the time we get there, probably gonna have a lot of money tied to the Chargers money line, Houston's money line. Those are like two spots I really like and probably have the Denver. Denver's playing the Cincinnati at home probably will have Denver's money line thrown there as well. So if you're looking for a really chalky moneyline bets, doing a lot of those with those type of teams. But yeah, my straight up bets probably end up with it being Chiefs, Rams and Bucks as my three biggest bets.

C (55:38)

Wow. Chiefs. Interesting.

B (55:40)

I know it's just about the three. Like the three. You give me a three, I'll. I'm gonna keep betting pretty heavy into it. I just can't help myself.

C (55:47)

All right. Our moneyline round robin underdog Parlay.

B (55:53)

My dog likes your dog.

A (55:56)

Your dog likes my dog.

C (55:59)

I think we gotta go Chiefs. I think we gotta go Bucks.

B (56:04)

Yeah.

C (56:04)

I think if we can get the Raiders plus one and a half. Can we put that in? Is that fair?

B (56:11)

You know you love Atlanta. They're plus.

C (56:13)

Oh, yeah, Atlanta. Then who's laugh. Who's left?

B (56:18)

I mean, I feel like we have to do it every week as long as they're a big number. Plus 185. Carolina Panthers.

C (56:23)

Panthers.

B (56:24)

I know it's sick and we're going against some respected money here, but I just, I. Drake may show it to me. Show me. Like, I, I. People are throwing these stats out after you beat up throwing the ball against Miami, Vegas and you know, last week against Pittsburgh, I know he lit it up, but it's like, show me Drake, man. Like, let's see you do it again against another bad defense and actually win a game. So I'll take that +185 with Panthers.

C (56:50)

For the favorites, Parlay. Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams.

B (57:00)

Yeah, love the Rams. Who's the fifth, Texans or Denver? I just, I'm like, I'm really into those. Both those.

C (57:07)

Let's do the Broncos.

B (57:08)

Okay.

C (57:09)

All right. Survivor Bills.

B (57:20)

So are we. Are we not thinking we're just going super lazy and taking Bills a week? Are we going to try to be cute and go, go Houston?

C (57:27)

I've been thinking about it. Like, who are we gonna.

B (57:30)

This is the spot. We have an 0 and 3 Houston team that could easily be 3. 0 at home against a Tennessee team that we both agree are lost beyond law.

C (57:39)

And Cam Ward popped up on the injured list.

B (57:41)

Did he really?

C (57:42)

I thought I heard that somewhere.

B (57:43)

Interesting. Well, that makes sense because I've seen a couple books move to seven and a half, which blew me away because again, this is another spot where you have. If you're betting, you have to bet Tennessee.

C (57:52)

All right, let's get cute. Let's take the Texans.

B (57:54)

Go Texans.

C (57:55)

I like it.

B (57:56)

Yeah, I like it too, because it's like the perfect spot. And it's just like we did with Denver, where. And Cowboys. Like, I'm so glad we took bad teams. Never have to take them again the rest of the year.

C (58:05)

All right, Sharp versus square. I. I won last week. I'm going to take the Niners.

B (58:12)

Wow. Minus three or minus minus three? Minus three. Okay.

C (58:17)

I can get a minus three at Hard Rock bet.

B (58:20)

I guess I can't do bucks. I did them as my right because.

C (58:23)

I, I thought about doing the Falcons, but I can't get him at 3. I thought about doing the Chargers, but.

B (58:28)

I did them for Chad says I'll plant my flag. I guess I'll go with I guess I'll go with the Rams.

C (58:36)

I like it minus three.

B (58:38)

I'm hyping them up. I have to fade this cold steam. It's just too much love.

C (58:42)

So it looks to me like the the games we're gonna recap on Sunday. Chargers minus six and a half. Looks like we'll do the Bucks plus three and a half. You know, if Atlanta's at two and a half, we'll have a conversation against Mariota. We'll see how the Lions are doing. But we like them right now. The Rams minus three and a half. The Niners minus three. Chiefs plus two and a half. I think those are our top candidates. And then we got to adjust based on how lines are moving and what injuries we're seeing. Yeah, okay. Like, all right. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning at 11. Well, we'll be back on Sunday morning. We will be back at Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day. Then we will be back On Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night after the late afternoon games. 7:30ish PM Eastern Live. To recap all the misery, watch or listen on YouTube like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.

A (60:11)

Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG XP Boom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom and for a limited time save 25% at LG.com with code fall25. Bring the Boom XBoom.