The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square — SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets

Date: October 9, 2025
Episode Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet

Episode Overview

This Week 6 “Sharper Square” episode is a sharp-driven, data-rich discussion of the best NFL bets for the week, focusing on professional betting insights and how public opinions diverge from "sharp" money. Hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter take the audience under the hood of key matchups, share betting trends, break down line movement, and debate contest picks with humor and candor, aiming to both educate squares and challenge sharp bettors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Week 6 Market Movement and Sharp Calls

• Contest Reminder & Setup: Relauch of their five-game ATS pick’em contest.
• Early Movements Noted:
  • Sharp money already moving lines, especially on Panthers, Jags, Colts, and the Chiefs/Lions game, often contrary to public sentiment.
  • “Chiefs-Lions looks like classic pros vs. Joes.” (Simon, 03:51)
• Market ‘Blind Spots’: Sometimes sharp consensus is puzzling — like Niners/Bucs — and demands extra analysis.

2. Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

- Pro Insight & Stats:

• The Panthers (+3.5) drew sharp action early; now mostly at +3.
• Sharp reasoning: Dallas is dead last in defensive DVOA and poor vs. mobile QBs. “This defense is truly awful.” (Chad, 10:31)
• Bryce Young's at-home improvement and the return of Chuba Hubbard factor in.
• Historical context: Dak Prescott is elite vs. <.500 squads (76% win rate, 65% ATS), but this Dallas defense is historically bad.
  • “Since 2003… teams giving up 400+ yards a game after six weeks are 26-40 ATS.” (Simon, 09:02)

- Tone:

• Chad is increasingly confident in Carolina but laments losing the 3.5.
• Decision: Like Carolina but not making it their “Brass Balls Bet” due to line movement.

3. Brass Balls Bet of the Week: LA Chargers at Miami Dolphins

- Pick: Chargers +4 / +4.5

• Both hosts are nervous: “Are we stepping in it?” (Chad, 12:22)
• Pros loving Miami due to travel and bounce-back, but hosts cite Herbert’s east coast ATS record (13-6).
• Worry about Herbert’s 1-score game struggles: “Last year, Herbert 0-9 straight up in one-score games. That’s a damning stat.” (Simon, 14:16)
• Matchup angle: Miami’s defense is weak in pressure and against zone-beating QBs; this suits Herbert.
• Consider outlining Chargers -8: “If we’re up 10 in the fourth, our bet is dead.” (Simon, 18:13)

4. Other Major Game Breakdowns

- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks:

- Jags slightly favored, sharps on Jacksonville due to health, historical undervaluation, and Seahawks’ key injuries.
- “No one wants to put their money back on Trevor Lawrence... which means you probably should.” (Simon, 22:08)

- Steelers vs. Browns:

- Steelers -5.5 (was -4): Sharp action on Pitt due to post-bye Tomlin trends (8-0 SU off a bye since 2017; 6-2 ATS). Rookie QB on road, Browns travel disadvantage.
- “This is a Tomlin spot after a bye.” (Simon, 24:56)

- Patriots vs. Saints:

- Simon’s pick was Saints -3.5, despite pro and public love for New England.
- Saints' defense overlooked, Spencer Rattler outpacing expectations: “Spencer Rattler and Drew Brees — only two Saints QBs to open a season with 6 TD, 1 INT, and 70%+ comp. (29:19)
- “If you like the Patriots, minus three is your number; if you like the Saints, three and a half is the ‘sharp’ number.” (Simon, 33:10)
- Emotional detour: Simon vents about his Phillies fandom.

- Raiders vs. Titans:

- Chad likes Raiders with the line moving. Titans coming off emotional comeback; history suggests a let-down game.
- “Three rookie QBs have come back from 17 points; all lost their next game by 20.” (Simon, 39:35)
- Max Crosby “should feast” vs. Titans' O-line.

- 49ers at Buccaneers:

- Puzzle: Pros flooding Niners -3 despite injuries; both hosts mystified but tempted by Tampa.
- “Feels like a blind spot. The number makes no sense if Purdy and top receivers are out.” (Chad, 43:44)

- Colts vs. Cardinals:

- Colts -7 after Kyler Murray injury questions.
- Teams losing three straight by ≤3: 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS next game since 2013. (Simon, 47:03)
- Sideline drama possibly impacting Cardinals’ morale.

- Bengals (with Flacco) at Packers:

- Packers ballooned to -14.5 after Flacco trade.
- “Flacco’s going from bad protection to the league’s worst… Nightmare scenario.” (Simon, 50:36)

5. Sunday's Marquee & Prime Time: Lions at Chiefs

- Why Is the Line Moving to KC?

- Public (80%) loves Lions, but line moved from KC -2.5 to -1.5; sharps are on Chiefs.
- Major Detroit injuries: “Amon-Ra St. Brown is the biggest ‘safety valve’ in football.” (Chad, 54:11)
- Mahomes “short favorite” stats:
    - “Mahomes as a dog or <3-point favorite: 29-12-1 ATS.” (Simon, 54:41)
    - “Against teams scoring >30/game: 5-0 SU, wins by 10 PPG.” (Simon, 54:57)
- Chiefs expected to out-scheme Lions; field advantage (grass, outdoors) cited.
- Both hosts feel nervous but conclude: “You have to back Mahomes. This is a Chiefs spot.” (Simon, 57:00)

6. Bears at Commanders “Weird Line Alert”

• Model says Bears +4.5 is value; line feels suspiciously inflated.
• “Books don’t make dumb lines. This is bizarre.” (Simon, 62:29)
• Both reluctant to trust it, but if healthy, Bears are considered playable.

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• On Chiefs-Lions:

  • “Mahomes when an underdog or less than three? You just press the button.” (Simon, 54:41)
  • “I wanted to find reasons for Detroit, but you have to take the Chiefs here.” (Simon, 57:00)

• On Betting Psychology:

  • “We’re not just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses… the market is changing before our eyes.” (Chad, 27:15)
  • “It’s a nightmare to watch… we sound confident but it’s still going to keep us up late.” (Chad, 58:43)

• On Market Movement:

  • “When everyone’s model has the same number and it’s off-market, that should tell you something: books are taking money and not moving.” (Simon, 03:33)

• On Emotional Edges:

  • “I think Bryce [Young] might be psychotic… he’s unconscious about throwing downfield.” (Chad, 10:31)
  • “Kyle Schwarber, season saver last night!” (Chad, 35:22)

Important Timestamps

• 02:01 – Sharp Calls & Market Movement analysis
• 06:42 – Deep dive: Cowboys @ Panthers sharp/pubic splits
• 12:17 – Brass Balls Bet: Chargers at Dolphins
• 18:51 – Quick hit: Seahawks vs. Jags
• 22:29 – Steelers-Browns, Tomlin post-bye trends
• 28:13 – Patriots-Saints disagreement and resolution
• 39:35 – Titans-Raiders: Rookie QB-less follow-up stat
• 43:28 – Bucs-Niners analysis and confusion
• 46:26 – Colts-Cardinals: Three-loss trend, Gannon drama
• 50:36 – Bengals-Packers and the Flacco move
• 52:29 – Lions-Chiefs: Market intrigue and sharp logic
• 60:43 – Bears-Commanders: Suspicious line breakdown
• 64:23 – Moneyline Underdog & Favorite Parlay suggestions
• 68:25 – Sharp/Square contest picks: Simon takes KC, Chad takes Carolina

Parlay, Survivor & Best Bets

- ATS Bets (per Simon):

- Carolina +3.5, Saints +3.5, Steelers -4/5.5, Chiefs -2

- Moneyline Underdog Parlay:

- Panthers, Saints, Bears, Lions, Seahawks

- Moneyline Favorite Parlay:

- Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Colts, Rams, Chargers, Packers (alt line)

- Survivor Pick:

- Green Bay

Summary Table: Games, Lean, Rationale

| Game | Lean | Rationale | |----------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------------| | Panthers +3.5 vs. Cowboys | Sharp | Dallas D vulnerable, sharp $ | | Chargers +4 vs. Dolphins | Contrarian | Miami love, but matchup edge for LA | | Jags -1.5 vs. Seahawks | Sharp-reluctant| Public on SEA, pros like Jags health | | Steelers -5.5 vs. Browns | Sharp | Tomlin, rookie QB, bye trends | | Saints -3.5 vs. Patriots | Sharp-Disputed | Saints underrated, Rattler efficient | | Raiders -3.5 vs. Titans | Sharp | Titans letdown after comeback | | Bucs +3 vs. 49ers | Contrarian | Pros on SF, hosts puzzled | | Colts -7 vs. Cardinals | Sharp | Cardinals at nadir, coaching chaos | | Packers -14.5 vs. Bengals | Sharp | Flacco upgrade overvalued | | Chiefs -2 vs. Lions | Sharp Big Bet | Pros v Joes, Mahomes trend | | Bears +4.5 vs. Commanders | Model Play | Weird number, caution advised |

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon delivered another tightly wound, deeply analytical episode, candidly navigating both statistical edges and their own betting psychology. Their contest of favorites vs. underdogs this week highlights how market dynamics — not old habits — dictate the sharpest action.

Final Sharp vs. Square Picks:

• Simon: Chiefs
• Chad: Panthers

“The market is changing before our eyes… you have to be adaptable, and you have to trust the numbers, even when it feels uncomfortable.”
— Chad Millman (27:15)

For Listeners

Miss the episode? This deep dive hits every major betting angle, highlights line movement worth chasing, and puts numbers (and nerves) behind each Week 6 NFL matchup. For your contest, survivor, and betting tickets, this is the sharp-and-square edge you need.