← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets: Lions-Chiefs, Cowboys-Panthers, Patriots-Saints, 49ers-Bucs and more
01:09:34
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- [00:02]
A
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my still bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad.
- [00:28]
B
How we doing brother?
- [00:29]
A
We are freaking great. You and I are still BFFs. I don't want anyone worried about it. People were asking me questions, people were concerned. Some people loved when it got spicy on Tuesday. I enjoyed it too. I feel like it's going to make it for a more interesting Thursday as we are on the Thursday Week 6 episode Trying to narrow down our options on our quest for our five favorite picks and if Tuesday shows was any indication, it might be tougher to narrow it down on our journey than usual. Couple of quick reminders. Number one, we teased this on Sunday thanks to our wonderful benefactors at Hard Rock that we are going to be relaunching our free to play five games against the spread pick them contest that we've done for the past couple of years. A lot of our old head listeners know what this is, but you guys get to compete against me and Simon in a free to play pick them contest. There will be prizing from Hard Rock that we're going to announce the ability to sign up next week. It's a blast and we're excited to participate and join everybody who's going to sign up to compete against me and Simon. We'll give up all the details starting next week. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Let's get this thing going. It's time for sharp calls.
- [02:01]
B
I have to answer this phone. All right. Ring ring telephone ring. Somebody said baby what you doing? Yeah busy, busy week. I feel like we did pretty good though giving out what side we thought we professional side and it's pretty much gone that way. We've already seen Panthers line moved so that was a regret should have made Simon says I I was thought it was gonna maybe get the four that's why I didn't the three and a half's are basically gone. There's pretty much just threes out now on Carolina. I got a lot of calls about that one. A lot of love for the Jags, a lot of love for the Colts which again both sides. It feels like that we were on from the get go Pittsburgh surprisingly and I do think it was about the number right like we did a show and that Number was four. I know a lot of guys that grab the four, four and a half and even the five. So if people are wondering what side the pros are on, I think they're joining the public on that side. I think they really like the Pittsburgh in that exact spot, which is again, we can go through. I got a lot of fun numbers on it. Didn't talk much about it. Still trying to figure out it. 49ers, I know a lot of pros that love the 49ers on the spot. They love the number. They love this matchup for them. And, and a lot of what they say is true. The Bucs are banged up. They do have injuries now to their secondary as well. Like, I get it. That's a game I guess we can go through. I just. Total blind spot to me, I just thought that was a Bucs number minus three. Purdy, like, I don't think he practiced yesterday, so he did. Not really. Interesting. The pros are so heavy on this 49ers team. And that's always something that just sends the alarms off when it's like, what am I missing here? Why do they love this number so much? You know, it's, it's a unique spot. We talked about it briefly too. You know, we talked about how we liked the Bears. I know a lot of pros, they really like the commanders. They like the number, they like the spot. So that's one we can talk about. The last one I think we knew was coming. Chiefs. All pros gonna be pros versus Joes. I know a couple pros that have taken positions on Detroit, but they're doing it with most, I think pros have, which is their model has this as Detroit as a favorite, which I think most pros do. And like to me, my pushback to them is that should tell you something when everyone has the same number and it's way off in the books, like I said, are taking a ton of money and they're not budging here. So that number has come down like it was stuck in minus two and a half. There are some one and a half's now popping up if you want to get the chief side. But that just sounds like it's the pro side. And I, I, I'm not shocked by that. I just thought there was gonna be more money and respect on this Detroit side for professional betters. And it just seems like they're gonna trust the trends in this spot and back this Chiefs team here. So really, really fun matchups to break down this week.
- [04:48]
A
Yeah, I really want to get into that Bucks Niners game because you have been on the Bucks and I am shocked at all the action coming in on the Niners and from professionals. So we're going to dig into all that and more. We'll get to brass balls, biggest bets, all that kind of good stuff as we go through the show. First, want to talk about Dallas at Carolina. You liked it at three and a half. We both bet it at three and a half. This is I think where the slow burn anger began on Tuesday because I was not as committed to Carolina as you were. The line has moved in that direction as I've done more research. It obviously makes sense and we can see why the number has been moving in that direction. Cowboys dead last in defensive dvoa. They give up the most yards per attempt. The most that number increase most yards per attempt, meaning passing attempt. That number increases against mobile QBs, which I would qualify Bryce Young as a mobile QB for his ability to move around in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. Everything about Bryce Young has been improving the past couple weeks and we've talked about Dave Canales and how he's been able to make Bryce Young a better quarterback. Also, more than likely they're getting back Chuba Hubbard. Dallas still riddled with injuries even if they hold up like they did against the jets, the Panthers offense is more than capable of neutralizing all of the offensive capabilities that the Cowboys have when they're playing at home in Carolina. Totally makes sense. I've come to love this play. I better to three and a half. It is now at three.
- [06:42]
B
Yeah like I said should it should have just made this one. Simon says. I again thought it was going to come down but didn't think it'd come down that quick. The professionals came in on it and yeah I still love it. Still want people to bet it. I hope people have bet it when it was three and a half. We can start with all the DAC stats if we want just because I have heard pushback from some pros and some people that why they are betting Dallas and I said well you're lucky it's down to three now so you got even better of a number which again the Dak numbers here pretty alarming. We've already talked about Dak versus bad teams and he burned us last week with it. We we know how dominant Dak is against bad teams right? He's 40 and 13 straight up when he's playing against a team below. 500 so 76% 3318 and 2. So 65% against the spread. He's, you know, winning those games by 9.7 points per game. So we've seen historically Dak does really well. His exact spots and another one that jumped out. You know Dak, you would think, okay, this is a back to back road game. How is he doing in these type of spots? He's 12, five against the spread and in the first three months of the season he is nine and one against the spread. So it's not ideal. Like when you dive into those numbers, it's like, okay, Dak performs well here, but I do want to give out the stats we do like about Carolina and why I talked a little bit about it. I just think they're a different team at home. I know it's a crazy small sample, but we can go back to just Bryce's career, which he's dreadful on the road. I don't know if you've seen the stat chat. He is 1 in 15 on the road. Straight up in his career.
- [08:18]
A
I have not seen that.
- [08:20]
B
Yeah. So that already should let you know that. Okay, he just doesn't win road games. So that could be our thing where we just stay away from him on the road. I mean, obviously spread we can talk about, but never take him in our moneyline parlay that we love doing on these underdogs. But when he got consistently home games. So back to back home games in his career, he's 4 and 1 against the spread. So again, very small sample, but that just shows in his career when he has back to back home games, he's comfortable, he does well, and the market still undervalues him. He's averaging 26 points per game in those matchups. So again, that's a big deal. Chad is talking about. This is a historically bad Dallas defense, which another stat I loved. So since 2003, again, this is how unique of a spot this is. You have a defense and an offense in Dallas that's giving up 400 plus yards per game. Again, very unique. So when you get six games in the season, these teams again that give up a shit ton of yards defensively, they're 39, 50 against the spread, 26 of 40 against the spread in this exact spot. So you see that they can score, but the market tends to favorite their offense where what burns these people is the defense. That's why when I look at that number, the hook did matter. You wanted the three and a half. Because it feels like when I look at these numbers, it's telling me Dak is going to win this game somehow. But if you get the hook, it's a real live cover with this. This Carolina team. So, again, I don't mind getting the three. It's a professional number. You've seen. It's all the money. I mean, I talked to bookmakers, it's all Dallas. So that is very smart professional money that I've hit these different books that have moved from three and a half to three, and it's holding there. So if you want to be patient, if you miss the three and a half, there are still a couple out there, if you can find it. If not, I think if you wait, we'll see how much more professional when it comes. I do see this getting back to three and a half because I just see the general public coming in so heavy on this cowboy side where, you know the numbers, the trends and stuff. It backs up the love for Dak. So I think you can be patient here and get this three and a half again. Again, we talked about making this one of our bets today. I'm not going to force it in just because we did miss the best number. And I personally have only bet this three and a half. So I don't want to be giving out the three on this Carolina side.
- [10:32]
A
Right. We talked about making it our brass balls better the week we're not that. That stat about Dak against bad teams is somewhat concerning, but I do think it's a little bit mitigated because most of that has come with when he had some semblance of a defense and this was just a. A better team. And right now, this defense is truly awful. And you could look at that jets game last week, and you can see if you squint, if you. You squint really hard, you could see how that game is much closer. Like, the jets just consistently give points away, like, truly give touchdowns away. And so if you. If you get beyond sort of the variance plays, all of a sudden it's a different game. And this Cowboys team is really defensively so freaking bad. I like Bryce in a shootout. I just do. I think Bryce might be psychotic. Like. Like the way he is just unconscious about throwing the ball down the field. They were down 17 nothing. And. And then at one point, like, he had thrown a pick, then he had thrown a pass. It hit a camera guy in the head. He's just laughing about it, like he's playing, I think, as well as he can play. And I really like Canales as a coach. So we like the Panthers, but it's not going to Be our brass balls bed of the week because we don't like the number as much as these, the one that we can share with our listeners and our viewers. However, the LA Chargers, our four point favorites at the Miami Dolphins. This is going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.
- [12:17]
B
You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.
- [12:23]
A
Before we came on the air we were talking about this and you had one question, are we stepping in it? And I completely think we are. I was nervous about this one on Wednesday afternoon because the move had been against us. We talked about it on Tuesday and, and both like the Chargers, the move had, the line had dropped from four and a half to four. That's where I actually bet it. Over the past 24 hours in a lot of places outside Hard Rock, it's moved back up to four and a half. So I feel, you know, a little bit better that we're on the LA Chargers right now and but man, we totally could be stepping in it because we're circumstantially betting the same scenario that we bet two weeks ago when the Chargers were going across the country and playing a team that is significantly worse on the east coast where they're short road favorites.
- [13:20]
B
Yeah, once again if you think back to that game, think of all the things that had to go wrong for you not to cover that number. So it's like my, from what I heard and look at this, it's probably just the fact again it's to at home. So like when you really dive into it too at home, it's just different. And this is tends to be the spot the professionals do back and because he does win and play really well at home. But I, I, I thought this was really about the travel and maybe because people are like, well the Chargers are so banged up and it is a brutal travel. Right. Going from LA to Florida. But you know, diving in Herbert's numbers, he's actually done pretty well in this exact spot. He's 13 and six against in against the spread in his career when he goes and plays in east coast games. So you know, he tends to not get frazzled in that way and early in the year. So September and October in his career when he goes east, he's 12 and 6 against the spread. So he's done well traveling. I will say this, there are some damning steps about Herbert and, and it's like again, non ball knowers will put him in their top five, which is like the laziest take ever putting Herbert in your top Five quarterbacks. When you dive into how bad he's been in these one score games, it is alarming. This is a one score game line. Like that's what this number is. So you know the last three seasons the Chargers of the team one in ten when it's a one score game this year they're one on one which is good. But last year so 2023 and 2024, Herbert was.09. Herbert 09 straight up in one score games. That's as a quarterback that's a damaged dad. That's you like you can try. People can put blame and always make up excuses but it's like that just shows at the end of these games if he's not blowing these teams out, we're dead on this bet. That's the fear, Chad. So I'm still on it. I still like this spot. I think defensively this is a great bounce back spot for this Chargers team matchup wise. And we said the worry for us with this Chargers team is how they're going to handle a team with a good pass rush. Miami doesn't have that and they don't have a good secondary either which I think Herbert will have passed the ball on even without his running backs. Something about to push the ball downfield. So I'm with you like this because we're just such dog betters and we're always looking for opportunities at home dogs. But this one to me just feels like a little of too much of adjustment by the books. Still think this number should be five and a half six. They've downgraded this team way too much in my opinion. So I do think it's a nice buy low spot on this Chargers team. And like we said, the fact that all this professional money is coming on Miami and it looks like public money, like you're looking at the splits at a lot of different websites. I don't know. Makes me feel pretty good that we're on the side that no one loves in this Chargers team which just going back just two weeks ago they were the best team in football. So I don't know, it's. It's hard for me to get out of this one Chad, because I just, I like the number a lot. I love this matchup for this Chargers team. They usually dominate beat up on bad teams and I, I just think that that Giants game was a one off. Just so much bad luck. And you saw last week once again a ton of bad luck against Washington. Too much overreaction to them getting blown out 27 to 10. That, like we said, that number is just not true. We both watched that game from start to finish. That score does not indicate what that game was.
- [16:36]
A
Great matchup for the Chargers. The reasons why it's different than going into New York against a desperate Giants team is number one two. It doesn't scramble the way Jackson dart does. And that was a huge factor in that game. Number two, the Dolphins have no choice but to play zone in coverage. Justin Herbert eats up zone coverage. Number three, their secondary, in addition to having to play zone 27th in average depth of target, allowed more than nine yards per play and average depth of target 25th in yards per attempt allowed their bottom five in just about every coverage category. Meanwhile, Miami, we talked about the Chargers O line and struggling against pass rush. The Dolphins Defensive line is 28th in pressure. Defense total is 28th in pressure rate and bottom 10 in total pressure. So the things that have been challenging for the Chargers are not necessarily, if you look at the numbers, challenges in this game, different teams, different situation. If you're saying he's, he's 0 and 9 in one score games. The other day you brought up betting the outlines on a couple games. Maybe we should just take a piece of the outline on this and like see if we're going, you know, Chargers -8 and get it over one score.
- [18:13]
B
It's more like if this is, if they're up 14 the fourth, I'll feel confident. If we're up 10 in the fourth, our bet is we're dead. We're dead. So that, that's like really what I was bringing up. It's just like we, we, like you said, you got to have them roll. I don't. I love the outlines in this. I'm with you on it. So I'm, I'm on the outlines in this game, but it's just we need the, we need the Chargers to roll. Bounce back massively in this game because it's, that's what like all the pros telling me why they like Miami. They were just like, this has backdoor written all over. And it's like I looked at those numbers, I go, maybe they're right. Maybe they're right about the, the Chargers not closing these teams out. But historically, this feels like the type of team the Chargers absolutely roll.
- [18:52]
A
Seattle, Jacksonville. Jacksonville is a one and a half point favorite. You say the wise guys are on the Jags. I don't know that we'll make this into our contest, but it was a hot topic on Tuesday. You know, Justin, Julian, Love, Devin Witherspoon DeMarcus Lawrence all missed practice again on Wednesday. I'm trying to figure out where the love is for the Jags. Trevor Lawrence, we know, is a liability. This defense as good as they've been, enforcing turnovers there. There's going to be some aggression here. Sam Darnold has been amazing so far this season. This Seahawks defense can be as good as the Jaguars defense. I don't love betting the short number anyways. I'm just trying to figure out where the love, like why there's so much professional left for the Jags. There shouldn't be that much professional love. It should be. It should be more of a debate.
- [19:45]
B
Yeah, I would say this Jacks team is healthier than Seattle and that's it. That's. I mean, there are other things too, like this. This Jack's team probably still being a little underrated to the market. People are really loving the Seahawks team now because Sam Darnold had an incredible game against that Bucks team last week. So I get the confidence now. But, you know, even the trend, you look at it, the Seahawks, the reason I like the book so much last week is whatever it is, McDonald as a coach, he's bad at home, but on the road, they've been dominant. When he's taken over his tenure there, I think he's 12 and 6 against the spread on the road in his young career and just shows he gets his team up. He gets his defense up for these matchups on the road, which is huge, huge deal. And I'm. I'm not shocked. This is professional side, honestly, the Jag side, because the public will be looking at this Seahawks team. Like I said, that was probably the best game of the week last week. Like, everyone watched that Seahawks Bucks game and they didn't think they lost that game. Right? They think the Bucks won it. They got Baker, so they pretty much are crediting this team with a win. On the flip side of the Jags, like we said, we feel very lucky that we got that cover in the win. No, no one, like you don't want to do it either. No one wants to put their money back on Trevor Lawrence experience. So I think that's part of it where it's like you're getting a unique situation where people just don't want to bet this team they're undervalued even though they're healthy. And you see it every week. As bad as Trevor Lawrence has been, the defense has been getting better and that run game is a legit threat like the Jags can run the ball. Like, I couldn't believe that he's had success against Bags because my view of that whole game was sags is going to take away the run and make Trevor beat them. And it almost worked, right? Like, if without that pick six, that's once again a totally different game. So I'm with you. Like, I'm scared to do it, but it's like, I feel like it's the right side. I'm gonna try not to overthink it. Take the Jags. Take the number. This Seahawks team, like, we loved early in the year, they'll get back to that once they get right and get healthy. I just think this is. This is too much to ask for. A defense is missing so many key pieces that, you know, they still haven't hit that yet. Like, the Jags have not hit their stride yet with Travis Hunter and BTJ and that, you know, passing attack. So we'll see. Like, I. I get it. Like, you. You don't want to do it. I'm not gonna. I'm probably not gonna force it in on Sunday. I just think it's really funny when all the pros, like, you have to bet this, and even I'm like, man, I don't want to bet the Jazz again. So that lets me know that I probably should be on it. But it's like, I'm with you. We. I feel like I survived something on Monday, and I don't know if I want to go right back to it.
- [22:24]
A
It's like we just got away with something. We should, you know, we shouldn't. We should.
- [22:27]
B
It's the wrong way to think, though. But it's true.
- [22:30]
A
Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is now five and a half. We talked about it the other day. You called it your lazy is better the week. Listen, if you were. If folks were listening on Tuesday and paying attention, you could have had the Steelers at minus four. So it's moved up a point and a half. I mean, five to five, five to six is still pretty much a dead number. I wouldn't tell people you'd be crazy to bet at a five and a half. But if one of the philosophies of betting is you got to get the best of the number, you're not getting the best of the number. Since this thing was at 4 on Tuesday. I like it for the spot. I like it because the Browns are coming back from the uk a rookie playing in his first road game. It's a difficult place to play. You've got Alex Highsmith coming back You've got Cam Hayward, T.J. watt already there. Alex Highsmith being healthy, to me is a game changer. Plus Joey Porter Jr. Like, the Steelers team is rested and the greatest advantage the Browns have is their defensive line and their pass rush. Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball, getting rid of the ball 2.52 seconds fastest in the NFL, so. So if there's one thing that can mitigate a powerful pass rush from your defensive line, it's Aaron Rodgers, who knows how to get rid of the ball quickly and as you noted, takes a dive. So I'm more and more comfortable with the Steelers here.
- [23:59]
B
Yeah. And I, I was trying to find anything I can to give me more confidence in the Steelers thing because I, I, everything we said is true. I feel like on the field and I really want to dive into the trends here and like, shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams. Just, he had the exact trend I was looking for, which is, I feel like this is a Tomlins spot that we historically bet. And that's why I was like, is this just being lazy? But it's an early bye week for a coach that we see just, he doesn't have that bye week letdown. Like, that's the real thing of football. Guys just aren't up for that game. After the bye week, again, I was grasping at straws because, like, I don't even know if this is real. I need to find some numbers that back it up and it is real. So when he has a bi week, basically he's one and covered five straight Tomlin since 2020, you could say that's not that big of a deal, but to me it is. He's 8. 0 since 2017, 6 and 2 against the spread. That's a big deal to me. Like, this is a guy that gets his team up ready for these type of matchups, let alone when they're about to play a rookie quarterback coming off an international game.
- [24:56]
A
Bring your A game today.
- [24:58]
B
You ain't new to this no more. Now, you know what I mean? Dominate this football game and you can go even more into it. It's like, okay, how does he do early in the year? Because that again, this is a very early bye week. So when they have an early bye week under Tomlin in his career, he's 9 and 1 straight up 73 against the spread. So what's in it? When it's within the first eight games of the year, he. His 1:1 rate goes up even more. He's 900:1. So a lot of that stuff I really Like, I already liked it when I saw those type of trends. It's like, okay, now this is a, it was already going to be in our moneyline. Run Robin for favorites. Now it's a no brainer smash spot for Tomlin. Like, this is a Tomlin spot after a bye week. And like Chad said, I, I just feel like it was so lazy because it's like, who's betting Cleveland side? And I could not believe it had gotten down to four. And you know, we, we try to make sense of it. What are these pros doing? And I always talk about you have to be wary of the professional head fake where they'll bet a line to get to a number they want and they'll load up on that side. And that's what I feel like Chad's talking about. What happened? Like, a lot of fours were popped up across the books. All jumped up to five, five and a half after a lot of money came in. So I still like it at five and a half. I still think it's a fair number under six. I just, again, their running attack is so good at Cleveland. That might be my only fear. Like if, because you can run the ball against this Pittsburgh team, but I have to trust Tomlin to make adjustments during this bi week. And then they're getting these guys back healthy. It's like, what, what, what, what does Tomlin doing this bye week? He has to attack their biggest weakness, which is the run. Anyone has these numbers, they can see they've been awful, I guess, to run through the first four weeks. So, yeah, Chad, I, I'm really happy to see he's done so well after these bi weeks and the trends back up our love for this Pittsburgh side because I'm not gonna lie, there's a couple games this week. Like, we keep talking on these favorites like the Chargers. That's like these lines just feel off and they're priced wrong because last week the, the dogs had their week, right? Where were they? 9 and 5.
- [26:55]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [26:56]
B
Straight up. Something crazy like that. So I, I, I, there's a couple lines that pop like this where I can't believe I'm on a chalk favorite like this once again. But it's like, it's just an undervalued line. It's still, to me, undervalued. Probably should be six, six and a half. I don't think a five and a half is a terrible number. If you did miss the four.
- [27:10]
A
Simon. This is us growing.
- [27:14]
B
This is, at least for this week.
- [27:15]
A
Evolving in the marketplace. We're not just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses. We're going to take a look at favorites every once in a while because that's what the market dictates. You can't just bet whatever you used to bet. This. This thing is changing dramatically before our eyes. All right, Pittsburgh Steelers, the game that caused the biggest riff you and I have ever had of the podcast. The New England Patriots. Three point favorites at the New Orleans Saints. This was your Simon says. When I disagreed and pushed back, you got very mad. But I do realize that I listen back. We did this right after revisiting the Cardinals debacle from Sunday. And then we played your rant about the Cardinals from Sunday. So I think you might have been triggered.
- [28:14]
B
Kyler Murray's a loser. Gannon's a loser. That's a loser. Organization fold don't exist anymore. Tomorrow. I hope I wake up tomorrow. And they said, yep, 31 teams. NFL Arizona literally folded overnight. Good. Let it be done.
- [28:29]
A
At Hard Rock. The line has shifted. The Saints are a flat three. A lot of other places it's still three and a half. Clearly the wise guys, as you noted in sharp calls, are on the Saints. Here I'm a little more trepidatious. Like everyone keeps saying the Saints are better. I think people are undervaluing the impact of Christian Gonzalez on the return for the Patriots. I get it's like it's not going to be a good side. It's inflated against the Patriots because of what they did against the Bills. Everyone's talking about Drake May as MVP big, basically because there's no one left to talk about. Right? Like you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes. You can't talk about Lamar Jackson, you can't talk about Josh Allen this week. Hey, let's talk about Drake May. And so I totally, totally get it. I just don't know about these Saints.
- [29:19]
B
Yeah, let the record show I wasn't mad. I was annoyed. Listen, we're humans. We all have many flaws. I have many flaws and I am a crazy person. Has many blind spots. And that's. That's all. We all have blind spots. So peek behind the curtain. Chad asked me for my favorite bet this week before the show. Again, we're not live. This is only me and Chad. I tell him I'm on the Saints. Chad could have just simply said, oh, I like the Patriots. Chad pro speeds to go on a minute rant about why the Patriots are the right side and how he makes the number five or five and a half and I'm just like, this guy. As soon as we get on the air, I'm going to bury this guy for his worth of his Patriots team. You can't read the room. I'm a guy. He thinks it's the Arizona thing. Dude, I'm a dire Phillies fan. I'm staring at 02 and I forgot about that. And I'm just like, is this guy really doing this before the show? Because again, if it's on air, check and talk for five minutes about the Patriots. I don't care. That's for you people. He's giving me his own private show of something I do not want to hear after being up 14 games. So that's why I was just like, annoyed. I don't know if I was mad. I was more annoyed. But yeah, I, I'm still in the Saints. And it like, my view of it was to get the number before it moved because I was just like, okay, the public will be on the. The Patriots here. Will the pros join me on the sane side? Will they bet this down to 3? I feel like Hard Rock's the only one that moved. Like, if you want the three and a half, there are so many out there. And yeah, I think I'll get back there. Like, I, I talk to pros who are on the Patriots side and yeah, Christian Gonzalez is a big deal. I don't think they realize that this Saints team is still better than people perceive. And, you know, even the numbers say this team's actually not as bad. Like, defensively. I was shocked because that's when I want to look into. It's like, okay, their defense, yeah, they've had a soft schedule in some aspects, but they've actually played well like that. That Bills game, they didn't just lay down and die. Like, they stopped the run. I feel like they were pretty solid in that game. And you look at it, they're ninth in EPA a game against the run. So they're holding. You know, in four out of the five games they played this year, they've held the number one running back to under 70 yards. Okay, that's. That's something improving on. Right. Their run defense is actually getting stops. That's something I hang my hat on. The Spencer Rattler part, though, is the part I can't get over. I can't get over how good this kid's playing for someone that I totally viewed as a joke. I was like, they're making the quarterback so they can tank and get a quarterback this season. And you look at the Numbers and it's, it's good and like even when Chris Gonzalez takes out the number one of a team that is a big deal. But they haven't really like Olave, who we really respect. He was incredible. Ohio State, he's, he is their number one but he's not their focal point of their offense. He's not a guy in a lot of ways. And you look at the Spencer Rattler numbers. So he has six touchdowns and one interception this season. So in the Saints history, this is crazy. They've never had a quarterback or they've had two quarterbacks through five games, throw for six touchdowns, one interception and throw for over 70%. That was Drew Brees in 2018. So Spencer Rattler Drew Brees and Spencer Rattler in 2025. In 2025. So those are the two quarterbacks on that list in Saints history that have played that well to start a year. So it's like I got to give him his roses. Kellen Moore, which like again I didn't think it was a huge loss for the Eagles for him to leave. He obviously is a pretty gifted coach if he's turning that out with Spencer Rattler and the team they have. Like I just, I looked at those numbers, I couldn't believe it. Like the fact that he's being smart with the ball in his hand like that because him being six touchdowns and one pick, I agree with people that's not jumping out of like that's not amazing. That's not a Pro bowl numbers. But he's playing within the offense and he's not the reason this team is losing. Like they have losses on the stream. You can't point to him like sure there's been times he missed throws but it's like once again expectations for this team. So I still think the general public doesn't realize this defense is actually all right for the Saints and Spencer Ellis playing at a same high level that Drake may explain right now. And my only pause here is when you dive into the numbers, this is once again another variable spot variable does very well against bad teams, let alone teams with first or second year head coaches. So there are trends that's are like I know pros who bet trends and that's there are trends they like that face to this Patriots team. So I just want people to know this isn't all professional. I thought this was going to be all pro on the same side. There are some that are back in brable in this spot. But like I told them, I'll tell you if you like the Patriots, you can get minus three right now. That's. That's a Patriots number right there. To me, the Saints number, though, which is every book most likely in your state is three and a half. That to me is the confidence smart side. The Patriots can win. They can cover this number. That's like a 30%, 35% chance. Like you're betting into a really bad spot side at a bad number. This Saints team, I could be over my skis here. Back in them two weeks in a row, but it's just about the number. Just like last week, I thought that number should have been closer to three. It wasn't right. I mean, I think it peaked at two and a half. Same thing here. I think this number should be closer to a pick you're getting a hook on. Three and a half. I'm never going to avoid this one. I like the Saints here. I like this matchup for this team and their defense.
- [34:36]
A
I always forget how emotionally invested you are in the Philadelphia Phillies.
- [34:44]
B
Yeah, I love them, man. Like again, it's Eagle season, but I'm still. It's still in my mind Philly season. Like if The Eagles were 2 and 3, yeah, it would suck, but it's like their season start till December anyway. This is. Yeah. Going down O2 at home. Chad. I was. I was hurting. I was hurting Tuesday morning. Not gonna lie. Thank God for last night. Schwarber. Man, I needed it. Starters have been a major story. Oh, Schwarberg gonna send one way out of here. How far will it fly? My goodness. Kyle Schwaber with a tape measure shot. That is one of the biggest bombs you will ever see.
- [35:22]
A
He was a season saver last night. Yeah, we'll see what happens today, but yeah. All right. So clearly you love the Saints here. Part of me just wants to bet the Patriots at minus three and then. And then put them in the contest and just see what happens and let it roll.
- [35:44]
B
Put the Patriots in at minus three.
- [35:45]
A
No, put the Saints in.
- [35:46]
B
Oh, I'd be willing.
- [35:48]
A
I'd be willing. I'd be willing to sacrifice the bet and put the Saints in just to see how this whole thing plays out.
- [36:00]
B
We might have to, though.
- [36:01]
A
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet. The bright lights of the Big Apple set the stage tonight for week six in Eagles versus Giants. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet stats hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. The giants have lost 11 in a row versus NFC opponents Saquon Barkley has reached the end zone in five straight road games. If you like those, you can bet on them with live odds right here in the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in both bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus, tonight on Hard Rock Bet, you can get a Thursday night parlay boost for the game Boost your same game parlay or SGP max so your bet pays extra winnings. Here's a parlay I like tonight. Giants against the spread under in the first half and Saquon Barkley to score score the first touchdown. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets. Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888- admit-it in Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. Tennessee at the Las Vegas Raiders. All right, look, I made a Chad's choice on Tuesday. It's down half a point since I made it Chad's choice. Brock Bowers did not practice yesterday. Not great. Not great, Jim. But this should be about the Raiders letting Ashton Genti repeat the performance he had against the Bears, right? The Titans are 31st in Run DVOA, 28th in EPA per rush, 29th in success rate against the rush. Like Chip Kelly. Don't get freaking cute, man. Don't put the ball in Geno's hands. Don't try to do anything special. Just give it to Genti. Let him score his touchdowns. Let him beat up on a Titans team that really should not be even on the same field as any NFL team. I know I'm exaggerating because it's the Raiders and really, the Raiders are trash. But they do have offensive weapons and if they can just put them in the right hands, they should Be able to win this game and win this game by margin. So I'm still on the Raiders, still.
- [39:11]
B
In Raiders and the professionals are coming on Tennessee's like, what is that about? They don't always win. So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You can find minus three and a half and I don't care for the suckers here. I saw the best, laziest stat of the week, which was there's been three rookie QBs come back down 17 points in NFL history. They all lost the following game by like 20 points.
- [39:36]
A
So yeah, you know why? They're playing for bad teams. And like this Titans team. What, what is this line? Honest to God, what is this line? If the, if, if the Titans lose that game 28 to 6 against the.
- [39:50]
B
Carriers are so bad, I don't think it crosses six. I think a peak would get up to minus six.
- [39:55]
A
Right. But so then to me we're still getting two points of value.
- [40:00]
B
But to me that's just a glaring stat too of just how these young quarterbacks, they can have that moment, that comeback thing. But Chad just nailed it. They're on really bad teams and that most usually don't know how to handle winning. So like you have this insanely high emotional win on the road, you fly home vibes are the highest of high. Now you're flying again to Vegas to go play this matchup against a Raiders team that is veteran, across the board and insanely desperate like Pete Carroll. If he gets fired, he might end up being our next president. What is he, 75? He's right around the perfect age. So it's, it's, it's scary. Like we're both the same boat of like holding our nose, taking this side. And we know exactly what we're doing here with this Raiders team. That the only thing I could burn is Gino because Genti, he should rush for 150 here. Like you just avoid Simmons in the middle. You can run for whatever you want against this team. And you look on the flip side like we talked, the same reason we loved the Raiders against the Bears. Max Crosby against battle lines when he can pick the guy he can go against.
- [41:06]
A
Oh my God.
- [41:07]
B
Right? It's like it's not even fair. And I love too, you see, you know, all these teams reached out to try to get him off the Raiders. If the Raiders were a smart organization, you should move him on. You should let this reward this man who's so great. Get three first whatever you can get from him and let him move on and go win a championship, because it is. You watch him every Sunday. He's just the best. And it's such a waste here for the Raiders, but we still got him here, and we still have a great match with him. So. I know, Chad, I, I can't believe the amount of professional money that moved this number down, especially that, you know, we got four here at Hard Rock. The minus three and a half is just egregious to me.
- [41:39]
A
It's stupid.
- [41:40]
B
Yeah. Shop around, get that number if weekend. I just, I, I, I can't believe people and professionals alike are overreacting this much to a Tennessee win, which they view as something that is going to spark this team. Historical data shows this is not that moment. This is usually when they fall off a cliff the following game.
- [41:57]
A
Also, historical data tells you that when you're betting a home team after a blowout, there's also going to be deflation in the line, and that's when you want to bet on that team. So, like, if we talk about buy low and sell high, like, this is when you sell the Titans, and this is when you buy the Raiders.
- [42:15]
B
We hope on the Raiders part, we don't know if this is rock bottom yet, because if they lose, we assume.
- [42:19]
A
We assume Caleb Williams called Max Crosby the best football player he's ever played against.
- [42:24]
B
That's fair. Yeah.
- [42:25]
A
Tell you that. All right.
- [42:27]
B
Aaron Donald. So I get it.
- [42:29]
A
Yeah. Right. San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay minus three. We talked about this. And sharp calls. I want to spend a minute on it because, like Brock Purdy, Juwan Jennings, Ricky Pierasol, again, none of them practiced on Wednesday. Also, even scarier, Mac Jones was limited.
- [42:45]
B
So, like, what is happening?
- [42:48]
A
Why is the entire wise guy community forget about coming in on Tennessee? Why the Niners? What is happening here? To me, this is solely about fading the box and just thinking they can't continue to win every game by a field goal in the final seconds. Literally the final seconds. Agree that, that that's the only reason. And maybe there's some other injuries for the Bucks in the defensive backfield. But if Mac Jones, who is already limited physically, is now limited because of injuries and he's your quarterback. I don't know, man. Like, what, what are people seeing here?
- [43:28]
B
Bizarre world. And I was so excited, too. I was like, oh, my God, they're gonna give us two and a half in our contest and we can, we'll get the Bucks here. They'll announce Purdy's out and Max playing, and maybe this line will run up to four. Four and a half. We have an amazing number. It's three and a half. So it's like I don't even know if we're gonna have in our contest either, which sucks.
- [43:45]
A
Yeah.
- [43:46]
B
Which could be good for me though, because I probably should avoid this Bucks team because there's something I'm not seeing here. I mean, I. I have a total blind spot and I think what you said is part of it, where it's like, Baker is hit on black now nine straight times and he's gonna go hit it again. Like, I loved his interview this week. I think he's talking about how, like guys will say he has moxie now where before he was just a cocky ass.
- [44:08]
A
Yeah, right.
- [44:08]
B
That's what winning does. Where it's like, yeah, Baker, that's part of it. But there's also part of it. You were kind of a douche and now like, you do have the cool moxie of like, you know, you're not some young kid. You're a grown ass man cursing dudes out in the stands. I kind of love it. Rather than when you were 22. It just looked. It felt weird. So I don't know. I'm too close to it, I think. And I'm just in love with this team. And I've obviously been into this. Like, I'm all in on this three. It's like. And I've got guys telling me not to do it. It's like, I. I gotta touch the hot stove. I can't help it. Here, this is the number. Doesn't make sense because once again, if Purdy is out, their number one and number two receivers are out again. You're betting on lightning striking twice with this, this 49ers team. Like, what happened? That Rams game felt so incredibly flukish.
- [44:50]
A
Yeah.
- [44:50]
B
The Niners covering it.
- [44:52]
A
The Niners didn't win that game.
- [44:54]
B
Right.
- [44:54]
A
The Rams lost that game.
- [44:56]
B
And even the COVID where it's like you're betting on Mac Jones again to be 20 of 23 passing and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like, I just feel like the ask is way too big if you're back in this 49ers team. So like I said, people can be careful here. There's clear. I clearly have a blind spot here. I maybe talk to two other really smart groups that are on this buck side, but they're like me. They're scratching our heads a little bit and like, I don't know, are we, are we idiots here? Like, this feels like a gift getting Minus three on a Bucks team that with all their injuries they do have in their secondary. There's ways to combat that with this, this style of defense they play. I know it didn't show up obviously against the Seahawks, but I don't know, I once, like I said, I just. I think it's a big difference between Sam Darnold and a healthy receiving core the Seahawks had. And Mac Jones here with a banged up 49ers team. So very, very unique game. I'm excited to talk about more on Sunday because we'll have a lot more info. Like right now, we just don't know. I'm going off right now. What I know, which is Purdy hasn't practiced in two days. The wide receivers haven't practiced in two days. If they practice today, which they need to do, most likely to play in this game, we will have more info. And this number could easily drop to Bucks two and a half. And then I'll talk more about take a position on that on Sunday.
- [46:08]
A
I'm excited for Sunday because I feel like we're already. We've got like five teams right now that I think five games that we feel will be in contention. The Bucks are one of them and we've got more to come.
- [46:26]
B
Can I talk the Colts game? I don't know if you have that on your thing. Just two seconds on the Colts.
- [46:31]
A
I didn't put it on the list because the numbers move so much. The numbers now at seven. So Colts are minus seven. You know, against the Cardinals, just to set it up, they were five or five and a half. When we talked about it on Sunday, I bet into the Colts when that number was lower. I haven't brought it up because the numbers move so much. So go ahead.
- [46:52]
B
Yeah, it is at minus 7, minus 115 now at hard Rock. So like Chad said, I think that's based off the Keller Murray news. Right. He's not practicing like we said. That's why I wanted to be on this number early.
- [47:02]
A
Yeah.
- [47:03]
B
Because it's like, okay, he could have. I know it sounds stupid. He could have got a concussion from that snap of the football or he really does have a foot injury. We don't know. But we do know is he's not practicing. That's a big deal. And I wanted to look at what are the trends of teams like the Cardinals that are in this unique spot that they lost three straight games on a last field, a last second field goal. Like, to me, that's something that always jumps out to me where it's like there are going to be numbers that back up and trends to back up teams that are in this spot because they are humans. And like I say all the time history does repeat itself with humans. You can't. The game may change, the personalities may change. At its core it's still people living real lives that are affected by wins and losses. And you dive into this one. Since 2013, teams have lost three straight by three points or less. They're 1 and 8 and they're following games straight up 2 and 7 against the spread. So again this number people I still think it's worth grabbing the seven if you can just in case it is Brissette this will instantly jump to seven and a half and then if you hadn't missed it, yes you can talk yourself into taking that Cardinals but I still think this is a cold slide. Like we talk Colts are a big is they're big offensive line wise, defensive line wise and I just matchup wise. If I was going to be on Kyler it's like okay, this is a Kyler game because he is a dog on the road always tends to be much better than at home as a favorite just historically against the spread. But when I saw that trend it feels real to me that teams have hit their low point and then you have to add in now the time is something to do with trends. We have a coach get into physical altercations with players on the sideline and having to talk in front of the team and pay 100, 100k fine and all those players, they'd be like yeah, it's cool. We forgive coach. We're moving on. Well, you know in the back of their mind they're like this guy I cannot wait to be able to be fired. Like other video and Urban Meyer this was the kicker. Urban Meyer kicked the kick.
- [48:58]
A
Yeah. Lost the whole team.
- [48:59]
B
Lost the whole team. So they can say what they want on camera, play it good. I mean I just felt like that was like the again they don't have an owner of that team or they would have fired the coach after that incident. It's just you have to do something there. So yeah, I I just wanted to bring that up because I saw that trend. I was like oh my God, this is exactly what I thought. This is why I wanted to be on the Colts early. And yeah my hate was right early early on this Sunday the five five and a half was the right read and we'll be interested if calorie does get cleared if this does drop below 7. I think this is what the line will be regardless if Kyler gets clear to come back. I just don't see it dipping below 7 again.
- [49:39]
A
Cincinnati at Green Bay I just want to touch on it for a second because after we talked about liking Green Bay on Tuesday, we won't put this in the contest but as soon as maybe right. As soon as we were done recording on Tuesday, the pack the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco and Zach Taylor's announced that he will be starting and the line moved to 14 and a half. Yeah, so I bet the packers at 14 for a little taste. Not, not too much. But I don't think anything changes for me. Is Joe Flacco going to be better at getting the ball to Jamar Chase? More importantly, is Joe Flacco going to play middle linebacker and stop Josh Jacobs from running after 10 days of Matt LaFleur just being so mad that his running game isn't doing anything. So this Bengals team isn't going to be saved by Joe Flacco walking through that door.
- [50:36]
B
No, but it is shocking. A lot of trends do love the Bengals, but it's like this computer doesn't understand what this team is. No, I don't care what's happened the last 30 years. This is. You have to play this exact spot. This is very unique and there's actually some good trends too that point to Leflore after bi weeks playing against very bad teams, especially early bye weeks in the year where talk all the time, it's a big deal. Right. You're healthy, rested against a team that they've just been running through it for five straight weeks now. And now they're on the road again as a double digit dog. And the Flacco trade, just bizarro world. I, I don't know if they look at the circle data, but you're. You're grabbing a quarterback that needs protection and now he's going from mid tier, maybe bottom 20 protection in the Browns to the bottom 32, number 31 and pass blocking. So nightmare, nightmare, nightmare scenario. I mean as a hater, as a fan, I mean it'd be the greatest thing ever. Joe Flacco beats the Green Bay packers twice on two bottom five teams in the NFL. It'd be legendary. But this isn't a fairy tale. This isn't a made up world. This, this Bengals team is so much worse than that Browns team and which is crazy to think and say because I know the books don't reflect that. Right. They still have the Bengals as a better favorite to win this division. This brownsteam, but my model just hates this Bengals team. And I have this at 15 and a half, so I'm still on Green Bay, but my God. My God, I can't believe this is. This is how bad it is for this Bengals team, that this number is what it is on against a bank. A Green Bay team that I want to say they're not warranted to be this big of a favorite. Like, they have their own issues, right? They got injuries, they're not in rhythm offensively. But that just shows how bad this Bengals team, they should. They should just absolutely get rolled here by Green Bay.
- [52:29]
A
All right, I want to get to the prime time games because we actually liked all of them and we had a good conversation. I think the most challenging one is Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City. You can get it at two at Hard Rock. It's a two and a half in a lot of places. We were wondering why this line was moving towards the Chiefs when something like 80% of the bets were on the Lions. It told us that the wise guys really, like the Chiefs told us the books were taking a stand on the Chiefs. We do know at this point. Terry and Arnold, cornerback Taylor Decker, tackle Khalif Raymond, receiver Kirby Joseph, safety Amanra St. Brown, wide receiver for the Lions. They all missed practice on Wednesday. So there are a lot of injuries. A lot of people playing through. Through pain that normally they would be able to do, but it's so bad they can't even practice this week. That will probably have an impact on the game. I don't know that that's why the line is moving, because it kind of started moving before that. It just feels like people are still underestimating the Chiefs. They're overestimating the Lions. Like, the Chief's offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be. The Lions offense, they're going on grass a little banged up. I don't mind being on the Chiefs here. I kind of like it. I've bet the Chiefs at minus two.
- [53:53]
B
Yeah, honestly, I do mind. I feel sick to my stomach because I was just trying to find a reason to be under Troy and I just haven't. I'm on the Chiefs with Chad. I, I probably. We'll talk. So they might end up in our contest, but it's like, I think it will.
- [54:06]
A
I. I think it's going to be the Rock and the hard place, and I think we're going to convince ourselves we probably will.
- [54:11]
B
I just. I. I can't get over how much love There is professionally to this chief side. And you know, I'll run through all the trends. I mean, we know a lot of fans of the show know him because we, we love getting off this. Mahomes 1, Mahomes minus 3 or less. So if he's an underdog or short, you know, less than a field goal 2912 and one in his career against the spread. So like again, this is why me and Chad love Betty Mahomes in this guy's spot. We've made a lot of money over his entire career in sex spot. So his opponent is coming off a win more than 10 points. So again, same thing. They had a huge win. Detroit. Now they're playing against Mahomes, who's less than three points. He's 15 and 4 in his career in this exact spot against the spread. All right, let's dive into even more Mahomes. When he's playing against a team that's covering 80% through five games, he's 4 and 1 against the spread 3, 0 straight up, winning by over nine points per game. So when he's playing against Juggernauts, Mahomes in his career showed up in this exact spot. So once again, I want to paint a picture of why people are like so shocked. These pros are betting that you, the football geeks and nerds already like this spot for the Chiefs. But then you have all these trends that keep showing how of a spot this is for this Chiefs team and specifically on my home. So Mahomes, you know, he's faced great offense in his career, right? This is a team that's Lions are scoring more than 30 points per game. This happened five times in his career. Mahomes, he's 5, 0 straight up against those teams, winning those games, almost 10 points. When he's, you know, in prime time, which this is a prime time game for Mahomes, 19 and six straight up in this exact spot, prime time game at home. So can't avoid it. I wanted to find reasons to like this Detroit team. I think this is just the classic case of they are very, very talented offensively. They have injuries to their defense. Can they out scheme spags here and you know, be the juggernaut they are. I don't know if they can. Like, this just feels like the type of game where spag is going to take away whatever their strength is that these other defenses they played, these are bad teams. I mean, you saw a little bit of the Browns. The Browns were taking away what they want to do, which is run the ball and make golf beat you. I think that's smag is going to do. I mean, Chad just said I'm on say Brown. That's a huge deal if he's banged up and might miss this game. He is the safety valve of all safety vals for golf. Like anytime they need a third down, a crow route or a slant and they let aman Rod pick, it's unguardable. The man wins. It feels like every time on third down it's just an autop play and if he doesn't win it, he's one yard short on fourth down. They go for it anyway. So. Yeah, I can't believe it. It's like Detroit as a dog here. I cannot believe I'm not on that side. But you got it. You got to stick with us people. You got to take the Chiefs here. This is the chief spot. A Chief's number. Long term, we win this one. So again, might not work here. There's no guaranteed bet, there's no 100% bet. But it's like you're playing the long term game. You have to back Mahomes in this spot. He just plays really well in these big moments when people don't believe in him, let alone the general public. Like the fact that it's still, you know, 75 of the money in the tickets on this Detroit team. There's one book that moved the Chiefs back to one and a half. You can go grab. I just don't know if the spread's gonna matter. Like the books are telling us this ain't going to be under three. Like this is going to be a field goal or more game. The Chiefs win here. So I don't know how they're going to get there. Late win, field goal by Mahomes. But I love them to bounce back here after that. That loss they had against the Jaguars and once again we're playing the number. This is. This was three and a half then no matter what I had to put on Detroit. But if it was three or less, I'm going to back Mahomes in this exact spot. Like we went against them here early in the year when the Eagles were a favorite against the Chiefs, that was different. They were banged up then they had a lot of pieces missing. I think with worthy back, you've seen their offense just take that next step they needed with him there that he just opens things up. So yeah, I really like this matchup for this Chiefs offense against the defensive Detroit and defensively I think Spags is going to get his best this Detroit team that he's going to be able to slow it down. There's no way they're going to get more than 30 points. They're not going to be what they've been at home, which is this indoor juggernaut. This is outdoors, like Chad said, on grass. They're not cutting that grass this week. They're going to water before the game as well. It ain't going to be that turf like they're used to. So, yeah, I'm. People can tell I'm starting to really fall in love with this chief. So I'm just trying to be patient here because I know anything can happen. These type of matchups with two great teams.
- [58:44]
A
Yeah, the way we're talking about it belies how we feel deep down about this game, which is real fear, real trepidation. I think we're somewhat leaning into how the books are telling us they think this game is going to go because they haven't moved it at all. I thought by now the Chiefs would be an underdog. Like on Sunday night, we started talking like this line's gonna move. It's going to be the Chiefs, and it hasn't. It's gone in the complete opposite direction. Even though all of the money, all of the tickets, I mean, are coming in on Detroit right now, it just tells you that there's so much wise guy resistance on this Chiefs team. So it took me until yesterday to bet it. I betted it, too, because as confident as we sound talking about this game, it's still going to be a nightmare to watch. And it's going to keep us up late. And I bet it's going to be in our contest because it's going to come down to this and the Saints and the Bucks and we're going to be like, oh, my God, what are we going to do? Last game, I want to talk about Chicago at Washington. This game has moved down to four. It was at four and a half. Our comment section lighting up on this one. Lot of people loving the commanders. I'm here for it. So many people got opinions. The Bears are the play. I bet the Bears at four and a half. I know you kind of feel the same way, but don't love it. I don't see this getting into our contest compared to the other ones that we have. But I think the commander is getting too much love for the way they beat up on the Chargers and Jaden Daniels coming back and it's over. Inflating this line. It's Tyreek Stevenson's Redemption game.
- [60:44]
B
Yeah, it's just another game. I feel like I have a total blind spot too because it's. It's way off my model number, which again, usually.
- [60:50]
A
Meaning what?
- [60:51]
B
Meaning, like I have this at three. So, like, yeah, why are we not hammering the Bears at plus four and a half? And that's my fear where it's like I always say the. They're not here to give away free one of these sports books. And that's just a very bizarre number where everyone's in agreeance with the chat. Like who? That's why I couldn't believe there's so many professionals that like this commander side. It's like, what do you like, like what is the match up here that makes them right. A 4 1/2 point favorite over this Bears team. I just, I can't find it and it feels like people are grasping at straws to try to make it sound as if it is a good number where it's like you're just playing the number because you know it's what the book is going to need. The book is going to need the commanders here. The, the public dog is going to be this Bears team. I have no doubt about it. But it's like, I think the public is right. I think this is too inflated. I can't find trends that point to love in this Washington team. You know the, the Bears, yes, they're not as good, I guess you could say, as commanders. Here we are through five weeks. But like I view them as not that different of teams. Like skill wise. You know, Jane Daniels had an incredible season last year. I still told you, I still have Caleb as like basically the same guy. I still think he's graded just as high and through five weeks, I think he's played really well in this offense.
- [62:10]
A
So he's played amazing.
- [62:13]
B
So I just don't know what to do with this one. It's like I want to be on the Bears, but 15 years of being a professional sports better just has the alarms going off here of being like, man, this is a weird line. There's. I just. I'm glad it came down. Like seeing it now for like a hard rock.
- [62:29]
A
Yeah.
- [62:30]
B
Thank God. Like at least some professionals are joining us on this Bear side because I can tell you this early in the week, it was all commander's money. It was all love for this commander's team. And I'm with Chad. I just totally think people are box score watching that Chargers game and they're just overrating this team. And like Chad said through A quarter and a half. Daniels looked totally uncomfortable and didn't look right at that knee brace. Now, once he got in rhythm, yeah, it's. You saw Jane Daniels, one of the more deadly passers downfield. We were done. So. So to me, I'll be patient here. Like, if, if Terry McLaren gets cleared, if they're all good to go offensively, they're fully healthy. Okay, maybe we won't have this contest, but I think we can have a real discussion Sunday if this is one of the. One of the five we want to get in here. Because I, I do like the number. I like the four and a half. I bet the four and a half. My just weary here is just. What am I missing? This feels too good to be true. Just a bizarre number. Like, again, they would have got the same amount of action on this Bears team of three and a half and they did a four and a half. I don't know why they gave us a free point there. It's. That's the part I can't get over. It's just, it's a dumb line by the books, and the books don't make dumb lines like that. Like, they're not idiots. This is billion dollar companies. So really, really bizarre line. You can. Once again, you can still get a four and a half. I can't believe it. But you can still get it.
- [63:43]
A
It's on the list for Sunday, Simon. On the list. We got the Panthers, we got the Chargers, we got the Steelers, we got the Saints, we got the Raiders, the Bucks, the Chiefs and the Bears. So a healthy number for Sunday. I think I'm looking at seven, eight games.
- [64:05]
B
Yeah.
- [64:05]
A
For Sunday, which is a good conversation. I think there's four that we. That we feel pretty good about. And then it's going to be a rock and a hard place conversation for the rest. But I'm excited for it. I'm here for it. A lot of favorites. A lot of favorites.
- [64:19]
B
One second. One second. Survivor Green Bay. Survivor Green Bay.
- [64:23]
A
Well, that's what I was going to say. Okay, great. Simon, it's time for you to give us your biggest bets of the week.
- [64:33]
B
Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, ATS this week's gonna be a little tough, people, because I'm kind of, again, lazy this week because we did so well ATS last week. I tend to just go with easy favorites and pair them together like the Rams. I love that number, but I'd rather just take their money line. A pair would say the Eagles or, you know, we just talked about, we like the Vegas, we like the Chargers. Like, there's a lot of teams I'm just pairing money lines with this week. So I would say it's different than most weeks if we're looking for ats. My biggest bets, I mean, I'm on Carolina, three and a half, on the Saints, three and a half. Took positions on Pittsburgh. Still would, I guess the five and a half, but obviously I feel much better when I was in the fours. And I just know I'm gonna get there in the Chiefs. The Chiefs are probably gonna be one of my bigger bets. So, yeah, against the spread, those. Those will probably be my bigger ones.
- [65:25]
A
That's why I feel like the Chiefs will end up being in the contest, because we're both talking ourselves into how confident we feel about this, which is a frightening, always scary, frightening scenario. All right, let's do an a round robin underdog parlay.
- [65:46]
B
My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.
- [65:51]
A
I would do Panthers. Yeah. I would do Saints.
- [65:58]
B
Yeah.
- [65:59]
A
I would do Bears.
- [66:02]
B
Love it. Gotta. Gotta do Detroit just in case.
- [66:05]
A
Oh, yeah, Detroit.
- [66:06]
B
Just emotional.
- [66:08]
A
Saints, Panthers, Bears, Detroit. Who's our fifth?
- [66:19]
B
I mean, it's kind of boring, but let's. Let's throw Seahawks and they're plus one, plus 100 right now.
- [66:23]
A
That's what I thought. Okay. Moneyline, underdog, round robin, Saints, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, and Detroit, our money line round robin favorite.
- [66:39]
B
Let's do six, six this week because I have a lot of favorite chalk. I like the one outright.
- [66:44]
A
Oh, exciting. Raiders.
- [66:46]
B
Raiders. If you hear this in time, you can throw the Eagles in there. I just don't think enough people hear this in time. Pittsburgh, we talked about Tomlin. 9. 0 in this exact spot or 9 and 1 straight up in this exact spot. Colts love it. Rams, McVeigh, Stafford, 16. 0 as a favorite of six points or more until last week. So you expect a bounce back. Right. So I have no problem going out the Rams here against the Ravens on the money line. Throwing around Robin already gave out Vegas. Right? Chad, you said that one.
- [67:24]
A
Yep.
- [67:26]
B
You can. I wouldn't do the money line on Green Bay, but like the alt line, six and a half if you want take it down. That's probably minus 500. I wouldn't mind throwing that in as the sixth leg. And the Chargers again. That's why I want to do six, seven legs this week. I just. Yeah, one of these favorites. Sure. They're going to lose, but I wouldn't be shocked. All seven of these guys went like. Last week was really the week of the underdogs. I think this week is going to be super chalky on the money line.
- [67:51]
A
For favorites, we said survivor. Let me repeat that. Actually. Raiders for the favorite, parlay Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, and maybe throw in the Packers. Outline. Minus six. Survivor. We just said Packers.
- [68:11]
B
Yeah.
- [68:12]
A
Sharp versus Square. Let's see. Last week I had the jets, you had the Saints. You won, I lost. Who would you like to do this week, Simon?
- [68:24]
B
I gotta go Chiefs, I guess.
- [68:26]
A
That's what I thought. That's.
- [68:27]
B
I feel like I really need to take a stand on that one. Just like last week with the Saints. It's like I. I'm betting it big. I might as well make it my Sharper Square.
- [68:34]
A
I think I'm going to take Carolina.
- [68:37]
B
Okay. Plus three.
- [68:38]
A
Yeah, I'll take them plus three. But we're in. We're in. And I like it more and more the more that we talk about it. All right, we're going to be back on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back Sharper Square, YouTube, Sunday morning. You're going to eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon. We're going to panic. We're going to make human decisions. We're going to regret that the rest of the day and probably Monday, too. We will be back Sharper Square Sunday at 7:30pm Eastern. To recap all that misery, watch or listen YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.