Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "Sharp or Square" NFL Week 7 Bets (Oct 16, 2025)
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter (iHeartPodcasts & The Volume)
Episode Theme:
Sharpen your NFL betting edge for Week 7 as betting analyst Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter debate sides, dissect key games, and review the sharp (pro) and square (public) action across the board. The duo aims to find their five consensus best bets, mixing stats, betting theory, and some behind-the-scenes insight into wiseguy action.

Episode Overview

• Goal: Narrowing down to five NFL sides for the weekly contest, with an emphasis on where sharp vs. square bets diverge.
• Format: Rapid-fire analysis, blend of historical stats, trend insights, sharp calls, and their personal betting philosophies.
• Tone: Candid, witty, competitive. Friendly bickering and mutual respect underpins their analysis.

Key Discussions & Insights

1. Sharp Calls Recap & Betting Market Pulse

[03:34 – 06:52]

• Simon shares feedback from pro bettors regarding last episode’s picks (“sharp calls”).
• Key teams where the professionals agree: Tennessee, Minnesota, New Orleans Saints, Detroit, Houston Texans.
• “It’s been the dream for professional bettors … just fade the public and ride with the books.” (Simon, 05:22)
• Interesting splits this week: Pros are not united on the Chargers vs. Colts or Washington vs. Cowboys.

2. Chiefs vs. Raiders – The Classic Big Dog Theory

[06:52 – 09:50]

• Raiders (+12 to +13) not likely a contest play, but Simon insists: “If you listen to the show, you have to bet the Raiders.”
• Mahomes’ ATS record: 2-9 in last 11 games as a double-digit favorite against the spread.
• “His numbers are always inflated … especially in-division.” (Simon, 09:40)
• Consensus: Not making it into the five picks, but Raiders are the right, ugly side for value.

3. Miami at Cleveland – True Sharp/Square Divide

[09:50 – 13:06]

• Line: Cleveland -2.5, moved briefly to -3 before buyback.
• Chad expresses nerves about Miami’s off-field noise and handicaps the game from a “karma”/situation angle.
• Simon agrees but doubles down, “Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup.” (Simon, 11:14)
• Both end up on Cleveland -2.5; situational play backed by sharp action.

4. Saints vs. Bears – Spot, Trends, and Troy Aikman Tangent

[13:06 – 19:23]

• Saints line moved from 4.5 to 5.5 and back.
• Simon notes: “Saints … it is a pros team.” Bears are a young team, poor on short rest, and defensively porous.
• Entertaining aside about Troy Aikman’s commentary style.
  • “He gets, he gets testy and sensitive about everything … I think he’s actually great.” (Chad, 16:05)
• Edge: Saints the sharp side due to better coaching, defense, and the Bears’ tough situational spot.

5. Vikings vs. Eagles – Sharp Early Bird, But Wait for Injury News

[22:29 – 28:53]

• Vikings opened +2.5, quickly bet down to +1.5 and potentially back up depending on QB news (JJ McCarthy vs. Carson Wentz).
• Simon delivers key trend: “Hertz … 22nd game off a straight-up loss. He’s 10–11 following, 7–14 ATS.” (Simon, 25:08)
• Consensus: Smart money came in on the Vikings early, but confirmation will wait on final injury clarity.

6. Jets vs. Panthers – Hold Your Nose Special

[29:12 – 30:38]

• Jets slight home favorites; essential to “have amnesia” to bet them after recent outputs.
• “It’s going to take more than brass balls to bet the Jets. It’s going to take forgetting everything we’ve seen.” (Chad, 30:03)
• Both lean Jets, but not likely for contest—just too ugly.

7. Patriots at Titans – The “Brass Balls” Sharp Bet of the Week

[30:55 – 33:49]

• Titans +7 is the clear sharp side according to both hosts; public is all over Patriots, especially in teasers, survivors.
• “We have our favorite Dead Cat Bounce with the new coach. Now you’re mixing in just how horrible of a spot this is … The third straight road game … all I needed to hear to really get me behind this Tennessee team.” (Simon, 33:45)
• Best Bet: Titans +7, a classic “hold-your-nose” wager.

8. Colts at Chargers – Buying Low on the Perpetual Disappointment

[33:49 – 37:50]

• Chargers -2 at home, favorite among the hosts; pros are surprisingly tepid.
• “You’re buying very low on a Chargers team ... This is a horrible spot. This is the type of game [Harbaugh] gets his guys up for.” (Simon, 34:51)
• Fade public dog: “Any single time we can be fading the public dog, especially this season, I feel like that’s the side we want to be in.” (Chad, 37:57)
• Both like Chargers as a buy-low spot.

9. Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders – Trends vs. Team Talent

[39:41 – 44:54]

• Pros lining up on Dallas; Dak has historically dominated the Commanders (10–3 ATS and 6–0 straight up).
• Old trends favor Dallas, but Chad notes: “Dak was on a better team than the Commanders almost the entire time … that’s usually how it goes.” (44:31)
• Split opinions; Commanders seen as a live underdog but hesitation due to history.

10. Atlanta at San Francisco – The Fred Warner Factor

[45:24 – 49:40]

• Major discussion about the impact of 49ers linebacker Fred Warner missing the game.
• “I just can’t get over the impact … they lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, two guys they literally could not lose.” (Simon, 47:24)
• Market now Atlanta +2; Simon likes the number for Atlanta but with caution.
• Both waiting for Sunday for clarity on key injuries.

11. Bucs at Lions – Primetime Bounce-Back Stats

[49:41 – 53:52]

• Lions -5.5, both hosts love it as a classic Campbell/Goff bounce-back spot.
• “This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions … not going to walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff in a dome.” (Chad, 50:17)
• Wild stat: Goff & Campbell: 20–8 ATS after a straight up loss. Goff 19–3 ATS as a favorite in night games.
• Both: Detroit strong play, even with line up from 4.5 to 5.5.

12. Texans at Seahawks – Market Moves Confirm the Sharp Side

[53:52 – 57:34]

• Houston moved from +3.5 to +3 in Seattle.
• “I love, love this matchup for this Houston defense … We have a D-line in Houston that can get pressure, which we know Sam Darnold does not like.” (Simon, 54:56)
• “I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And that moving from three and a half to three was the validation I needed.” (Chad, 54:27)
• Strong nod to Texans with the extra rest and road dog stats.

13. Five-Pick Contest Shortlist & Parlay Ideas

[57:55 – end]

• Mutual five best bets candidates: Houston, Detroit, Chargers, Minnesota, Tennessee, Cleveland; Atlanta/Niners, Saints, and more being monitored for final injury/report info.
• Underdog moneyline round robin: Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans (with Tennessee considered but removed).
• Favorites parlay: Packers, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Broncos.
• “We both won last week. I had the Panthers, you had the Chiefs. I defer to you, good friend.” (Chad, 63:15)
• Colin: Sharp vs. Square best bet – Simon chooses Lions -5.5, Chad grabs Texans +3.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup.” – Simon, 11:14
• “It’s going to take more than brass balls to bet the Jets. It’s going to take forgetting everything we’ve seen.” – Chad, 30:03
• “We have our favorite Dead Cat Bounce with the new coach. Now you’re mixing in just how horrible of a spot this is … The third straight road game … all I needed to hear to really get me behind this Tennessee team.” – Simon, 33:45
• “This is a smash cover spot for the Detroit Lions … not going to walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff in a dome.” – Chad, 50:17
• “Jared Goff, 19–3 as a favorite in night games. That’s 9–0 … as a favorite with the Lions.” – Simon, 52:27
• “I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And that moving from three and a half to three was the validation I needed.” – Chad, 54:27

Timestamps by Segment

• [03:34] Sharp Calls feedback and pro betting consensus
• [06:52] Chiefs-Raiders divisional dog spot
• [09:50] Miami at Cleveland breakdown
• [13:06] Saints-Bears analysis and Troy Aikman discussion
• [22:29] Vikings-Eagles, market moves & injury watch
• [29:12] Jets-Panthers “hold your nose” angle
• [30:55] Titans-Patriots “Brass Balls” sharp side
• [33:49] Colts-Chargers – fade the public dog discussion
• [39:41] Cowboys-Commanders historical trends
• [45:24] Atlanta-49ers, Fred Warner’s absence
• [49:41] Bucs-Lions, Goff/Campbell stats
• [53:52] Texans-Seahawks, sharp market validation
• [57:55] Summing up best bets, contests, parlay, sharp/square picks

Final Notes

Episode captures the perfect blend of actionable betting tips, sharp/square line watching, stats, and the hosts’ sharp rapport. Betting fans will leave with not just picks, but nuanced frameworks for approaching NFL markets and understanding when to zig or zag against the crowd.
Recommended Bets from the Episode:

• Lions -5.5, Texans +3 (or +3.5), Chargers -1.5, Titans +7, Browns -2.5, with a close eye on Vikings/Eagles injury news and keeping tabs on late line moves for Atlanta/49ers and Saints/Bears.

For more in-depth weekly analysis, tune in to Sharper Square every Thursday and Sunday on all major podcast platforms.