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Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction
01:07:25
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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:36]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:56]
Simon Hunter
Chad, what's going on?
- [00:57]
Chad Millman
This morning, the FBI, the U.S. attorney from the Eastern District announced a sweeping set of indictments against many people, including members of three families of the mafia, La Cosa Nostra, including Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups, including Damon Jones, former Cleveland Cavalier and assistant Coach Terry Rozier. Two separate indictments. I will set the stage here. Two indictments, 34 different people involved. One indictment is for illegal poker rooms and swindling unsuspecting players in those poker rooms. That's what Chauncey Billups is involved in and Damon Jones is involved in. The U.S. attorney in the press conference referred to Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones as the face cards of the operation. Meaning they were the famous people who brought in the rich, unsuspecting fish into the games who were then taken. And then another indictment in which there are overlapping people is the one in which Terry Rozier has been indicted for the sports betting sharing of information that also is tied to Johnte Porter, who famously was banned. This is involving player props and Tara Reserve. Player props. Crazy story. Definitely. You know, the stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization. And last a couple of years ago there was the Ohtani interpreter scandal. Now this is front page news. This has been blowing up all morning since the arrests at 6 o' clock in the morning, both in Portland and in Orlando where Terry Rezear was after the Heath game last night. He did not play last night. And now there was a press conference that was all over the news. Look, it's, it's, it's a weird thing. We do a show on betting, we have a good time, we talk about betting on the games, we Talk about where the opportunities are.
- [03:22]
Simon Hunter
The.
- [03:23]
Chad Millman
That's the primary focus of what we do. But you and I are also very much in this world. We know a lot about the poker rooms. We know a lot about what's happening in the sports betting space beyond what we talk about on the show. I'm in the middle of working on a book about this world of sports betting that will come out in the next, say, 12 to 24 months. You obviously are professional. Better. There's going to be a lot of conversation about legalization being the cause and the scandals being the effect. I got a lot of thoughts on that. But let's break down the news for a second. You're seeing this. What are your thoughts?
- [04:07]
Simon Hunter
I'm sadly never shocked just because, like you said, I am in this world and we've talked all the time. I'm someone that. I love poker, I love Texas hold', Em, and I play a lot of house games in the off season. I do a lot of casino games, a lot of tournaments. But there's always gonna be house games, right? But you hear of these games with dirty tables and fixed games, and you might get away with it on one or two millionaires. Not all millionaires are dumb that look into it, right? We've all met guys who you're like, okay, he was born into it, or he found a right niche. This guy's not that smart. Some guys are brilliant and they are incredibly smart with people, and they can see things that normal people can't see. That's how they made all their money. All it takes is one of them to get into that game and they can tell right away something's off, something's fixed. Then they go again. And if the same thing happens again, they're going to notice it again. So it's, it's really about the names, right? It's huge names we all know. I mean, Chauncey Billups, he's one of my favorite players ever. Like, he played in Detroit Nuggets and then he came to Philly and I loved him like I love Chauncey Bills. I think I have a Chauncey Bill up Sixers jersey. No joke. So sad. Because you know how much money this man has made in his career, and it wasn't enough. He wasn't like, when you, when you hear people doing stuff like this, they could say they did it for the money in their family, whatever they want to say. It's like Walter White and Breaking Bad. You did it for you. You didn't do this for anything other than yourself. And crazy, crazy story. Like you said, it's the tip of the iceberg a lot of times. Right. So much more stuff is going to come out as this unfolds. So it's a really interesting story I'm excited to follow. And you know, people like you said, they think it's bad, the legalization of gambling. This is why it's good because before this would be handled off the radar, this would not be handled in the public eye, I promise you that. So things have just changed now and, and it's a good thing. These guys should see the light of day. And you just said all the lives it's going to affect, this must be a huge multimillion dollar operation. And like I said, it's gonna be really interesting these next couple months. All the information that's gonna come out.
- [06:18]
Chad Millman
Some of the details from the press conference that the U.S. attorney and the FBI had this morning in New York were that the tables at these illegal poker games included X ray technology that allowed off site individuals to see the face down cards of the players at the table and then relay that information to other people at the table. There were contact lenses and glasses that were able to read watermarks on premarked cards at the table. There were mini cameras inside the card trays that a lot of the players had at their table. So the cameras were able to read what cards people had and again, relay all that to off site operators who were then able to share that with other people at the table. I know a lot about these card rooms. Like I've spoken to a lot of professional poker players about it and a lot of people who are playing for high stakes games, this is how a lot of professional poker players, not games like these that are fixed, but a lot of professional poker players, even at the World Series of Poker, these are the games that are going on. These are the games where the cash is being traded, where, you know, it's 1 million, 2 million, 3 million, 10 million on the table at the World Series of Poker. Because these games go on all night. And that's where the real action is happening. And they've been at the center of this gambling controversy that started with Jonte Porter. And so the marriage of these things, and it was also, I think, a part of the Ohtani stuff, the marriage of these things and how these things take place between just very wealthy people across the board is where I think sort of the real intriguing sort of narrative is taking place. Just like you're in these poker rooms, you like to play poker you just said that, like, when you're inside there, what does it feel like?
- [08:26]
Simon Hunter
I mean, it's fun, honestly. It's all about how you view money, though. Like, these people view money the same way I do that. It's just. It's something to have fun with. It's not so much, you know, like, again, you can have rough nights. No one wants to lose money. But it's not like in Sopranos, right, where the guy is like, Yeah, I got 150k and I owe this. This casino room. It doesn't really work that way, right? It's. You're spoken for. You're not going into debt, selling your business to play in these casino rooms. So that's what. The interesting part of this, though. This is, like, way above my levels. Like, I. I played in some games I shouldn't have been in, and I literally play super tight. I'm literally just there to build relationships in the conversation. I honestly am there. If I can get up 10k, great. If I lose 10k, okay, I'll walk away. But I'll never go all in unless I have the nuts. And guys in that room will know that. So if I do push, they almost always fold. So I can bluff myself into some nice spots. But I play super, super tight in those games. There's guys who sit down and they will go all in every three or four hands. They just like the action, and they're there for the drinks, the cigars, the fun. It's. It's all different. Everyone's there for different reasons. So this one, like you said, from the top, Chauncey Billups. If someone said, you want to come to this poker game, you can meet Chauncey Billups. I'm a sucker. I would have been there. So him be them putting him out there and being like he was running this thing. He knew that he could get people in there because of who he was. I believe that right from the top. So, yeah, again, American reporting. People keep saying it's dying, Chad. It's. It's not dead yet.
- [10:03]
Chad Millman
It's not dead yet.
- [10:04]
Simon Hunter
And the stories are pretty incredible when they do get broken. So, yeah, I don't know if it's gonna be Pablo. Tori finds out. But, you know, that's the greatest fear, I think, in all sports media right now is you do not want to know if Pablo Torres looking into you. I would love a Pablo breakdown, a show about this one, because like we said, we're just getting the layers here, man. You think it just stops at Terry Rosier. I mean, this might get really juicy in the NBA. Not, I don't want to say it's the most corrupt league or whatever, but between the owners, the players. No other leagues have these type of scandals right now. Well, this is really, really wild that every sport has their own little scandals. I hope this is where it ends for the NBA because between what's going on the Clippers, now what's going on with players in the league, they need this to stop. You need this to stop the NBA. This is, this is such a bad look.
- [11:00]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the, the, the, the player prop problem is the biggest challenge for the NBA. And Adam Silver was on Pat McAfee 36 hours ago, 48 hours ago, talking about working with the operators to try to limit certain player prop markets. And I will tell you right now, I don't believe legalization is the cause of these issues. I think legalization is part of why we are learning more and more about these issues. There are so many people that are involved in the chain that have so much to lose financially. And I don't mean individuals, I mean huge corporations and these leagues. It is in their best interest as much as it is a bad look when this happens to root out every single one of these instances. Because you can't have bad actors. And there are always going to be bad actors. And we have talked about this on this show. Literally the National League was formed in something like 1876. In 1877, there was a scandal about players who were fixing baseball games. It is going to happen. It is time immemorial. It is not going to stop people from betting. The amount of money that is wagered every year gets bigger and bigger. Only now we have a much better understanding of what that money is and where that money is going.
- [12:34]
Simon Hunter
And people need to realize we're catching them track because these are done through legal books. We're not talking all offshore.
- [12:39]
Chad Millman
So that's what I mean.
- [12:40]
Simon Hunter
These are being. People don't realize that's why you need these legal books. Like Chad's saying here, it's like without it, we wouldn't catch these people. They be. It'd all be offshore like it used to be. And there'd be no stories in the news. Like, you're naive if you think this is something new, is what I think we're both saying. Right.
- [12:54]
Chad Millman
And. But I don't want to turn this into like advocacy for sports betting because we are both sort of shills in that regard. But I do think that back to the player props, that's the biggest challenge. You know, you mentioned a guy is making so much money, why would he do it? Well, he's doing it for him. I don't know what Terry Rezear's financial situation is. I don't know who he was doing this for, why he was doing it, what the situation was in any capacity. I do know that Tara Azir is in the last year of a four year, $96 million contract. Yeah, right.
- [13:30]
Simon Hunter
And.
- [13:31]
Chad Millman
And so he's not Jonte Porter. He's not the guy who's on a two way deal at the end of the bench who's bouncing around between the G league and the NBA. And maybe $50,000 as a quick amount of cash means something to him. So we don't know what it is with Terry Rezir. But the premise has always been that a lot of these leagues are protected from fixing scandals because the amount of money for the people who can impact the actual game is so high that it won't be worth it for them to get caught up in this. But the props change that. The props change everything. And I think specifically in the NBA more than any other league, it's harder for a running back to always be in control of his own destiny because he doesn't know how many times he's going to get the ball right. That's determined on the situation and the flow of the game. Same with baseball. And it's really only controlled by the pitcher. And we've already seen in the case of the guardians, pitchers who have been suspended and are under investigation, how that can be figured out. Because it is so egregious that there are monitoring agencies and the operators in the leagues that are working together say we've got some weird activity. We got to flag this. The NBA, anybody, any individual player, with all the markets that are available, as much as they are trying to limit the markets that are allowable, especially for end to bench players, that's an impossible scenario to police. That changes the argument about whether or not there is an amount of money that would keep people from fixing a game. Because it's not about the game anymore. It's just about your individual performance. And even then it's not about always doing badly. It's about just doing badly enough to make it look like it's not suspicious. That's the real insidious, dangerous part of what we're talking about here is that prop market, especially for the NBA. I don't know. I don't know how they fix it.
- [15:30]
Simon Hunter
I don't know either. But They've been trying for years. I mean, let's, let's face it, the NBA, this isn't new. We never talk about it. Like the ref. Between the ref scandals, the player scandals, it's been there in this league for a long time. I mean, the greatest player in NBA history had a gambling scandal. So you know, they're, they're in a really tough spot where whatever it is that nature that it goes hand in, every sport has its degenerates. I mean, we had a guy on talking about Pete Rose, some amazing stories, but it just feels like as we're going along here, Chad, it's just of all the leagues I have the least amount of trust in right now, obviously air hockey, you know, that whole scandal and all that stuff. Badminton. We're not talking about, talking about the major sports. NBA of the major sports right now. It has, my, my eyes are definitely fixed on it and I have, I just hope this is it. I hope this is the end of it because it's just. This could get really bad. Like we, we've talked about, we haven't really talked about, but it's, it's come apparent to a lot of people that the NBA hit its peak with LeBron and Golden State against Steph Curry. Right? That was the ratings galore. The MLB has a real opening here because it's like romanticizer now. MLB has had a nice sense of coming back to being a major sport. Its biggest scandal with its biggest player. It looks like they avoided it. And it's. I don't know about you, but like Otani, he's the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime. So it's like I get why they found a way out. They moved bridges to make that work. And like we always joke, he's one of us. Like it makes me love him even more knowing the guy's a gambler. But the ambay stuff, it's not funny, it's not cute. This is scary stuff. It's within its league with its big players. Like Chad just said, I didn't know Terry made 90 million. That's, that's insane amount of money.
- [17:25]
Chad Millman
Four year, 96 million dollar deal.
- [17:27]
Simon Hunter
So yeah, it's. I'm sure you're gonna get a ton of calls over the next week and you'll get more info on it.
- [17:33]
Chad Millman
But as we is literally, I just checked it. It's like non stop texting right now from people in the industry, from people who are just waking up to this. They're truly astonished. They're same Blown away. Look, last. I'm a massive NBA fan. I, I watched league Pass constantly. I was on league pass last night. I started with the, the Cavs and the Knicks, then I went over to the Bulls. I'm watching the Bulls and the Pistons and Adam Amin and Stacy King, who are the Bulls play by play and color commentary. They're brilliant. I love them together. It's, it's one of my favorite things is when the season starts it's like.
- [18:18]
Simon Hunter
Catch that Sixers game.
- [18:20]
Chad Millman
It's. I did see Vijay Edgecombe and dominate and, and Tyrese Maxey go for 40.
- [18:25]
Simon Hunter
But MBA went one for nine.
- [18:27]
Chad Millman
And, but here, here's my point is Adam Amin is a brilliant play by play guy and we've seen that this season. He did that 15 innings Mariners game. He does NFL, he does the Bulls play by play. Last night they were playing the Pistons and they were talking about Duck and Robinson and Duncan Robinson has replaced as the three point threat Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley, who had a record setting year last year, had gotten a new contract from the Pistons and then he was part of a gambling investigation and that contract was pulled and he's still on the street because the investigation is still happening. And you know, Admamine was doing a brilliant job of explaining what it is and, and perfectly threading the needle, not being accusatory, not saying anything. That was sort of a stretch about where the investigation is, but being specific that this was about prop betting. Right. And Malik BEASLEY, no joke, 30 seconds after he's done an in game promo for the betting sponsor of the Chicago Bulls in the game comes up all about live player props. You can be betting in the middle of that game. And Adam Amin, to his credit, did not skip a beat. He did not try to gloss over it. He acknowledged the irony. He noticed the. He called out his producer, he's like, I can't believe you're doing this right now. It was brilliant. I kind of feel like that's us right now, like there's a very serious thing happening and we obviously have to talk about it. And you and I have both been very lucky and very successful in this particular industry for many, many years, both with the show and way beyond this show. And we're gonna have a good time talking about these NFL games, but it's hard not to acknowledge the serious nature of, of what's happening and the ramifications on the industry. So that's why we're going to keep talking about it and keep following up on what's happening with this investigation. It's crazy. Chauncey Billup's Terror Azir arrested by the FBI as part of illegal gambling investigations Two days ago or yesterday, the NCAA passed a law allowing college athletes to bet on pro sports, with one of the guys who was on the committee that allowed it, basically saying we got to acknowledge the universe we live in. And this is happening, which is how we ended up with legalized betting to begin with. And the NHL signed deals with multiple prediction market platforms which have zero regulation. So here's where we are. People are going to say there needs to be regulation. People are going to sign deals with prediction markets who want to pay them a boatload of money that have no regulation. This is the state, the sports betting world that we live in.
- [21:30]
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- [22:29]
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- [23:00]
Chad Millman
The NFL chugs on and we're going to have to figure out how we are telling our audience what we like in an upcoming weekend. That for our Thursday week 8 episode we need to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks that we can agree on. And I think it's hard because meanwhile all this head twisting mind Bending. The Pandora's box is wide freaking open. News is happening and this may be the strangest week for betting so far this NFL season because we got the Buymageddon so we don't have a ton of games and the games that are being played, there's been like half point movements at the most on the games being played. Except for one of them. The Chiefs have moved two points from 10 and a half to 12 and a half against the Washington Commanders off of the confirmation of Jaden Daniels. So man, you know, reminder. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. It all sounds silly. Listen. Every week, Simon, every single week we give out our picks and every single week your fellow pro gamblers call to yell at you or compliment you about the conversations we're having. We're having because we know the wise guys are paying attention. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's time for sharp calls.
- [24:27]
Simon Hunter
I have to answer this phone. All right.
- [24:31]
Chad Millman
Rain, rain, telephone ring.
- [24:34]
Simon Hunter
Somebody saying baby, what you doing? Yeah. And interesting week. I know you said you didn't love it. I'm on the other side. I love these kind of weeks. Like there just feels like it's. People view it as gonna be a boring by the book type of week. And all I can just see is there's a. There could be a lot of madness and a lot of teams that need this week to get right. And when we talked about I still love the Panthers but I'm surprised there are some real smart pros coming in on that bill side and I'll read some stats. Some trends I still think people are overlooking on this Panthers team. But it seems like the pros I talked to want to fade anytime they can. And Andy Dalton start. They just think he is absolutely finished. No idea he's still in this league with a job. So that's a game we'll break down. But I can tell you I know some really smart money on the Bills and they'll end up in our money line. Run Robin. I'm not too upset about that now knowing there's so much love there. It's actually a great spot for Josh Allen to win outright. The Bears. Some real smart pros on the Bears here, as we said. Yeah. And it's. They just are not buying Lamar's right. And they're also not buying this Ravens team. They don't think it matters. They're getting all these guys back healthy that this team is just not as good as people perceive. I still think they're Overlooking how hard of a schedule this team had. Like yeah, they lost the Lions at home, they lost to the Eagles at home. That might be the two of the best teams in nfc. Like I just. I think the Ravens have just had a really brutal start to the year and professionals are still holding it against them. And they just are enamored with this Bears team who have is a four straight covers. They might have like they just been cashing for him. They love them. It's a raven scene that can't stop the run. Going against a really, really well run team in the Bears about running the ball. So interesting game. We'll have to break down some more. Got a lot of love for my Houston pick, but I knew that was gonna be the pro side and we'll get into that one. It's just historically a horrible spot for the 49ers. They tend to lose those type of games. The jets, tons of love for the Jets. Love that we had on the jets money line but like we joked, not a shocker. Every week the pet the pros are going to bet them. Got a bunch of calls about the Giants. The pros, they're gonna bet the Giants every week. Not shocked at all. It's. It's a money maker for them. So Chad was spot on about his call about the Saints. He said it's just gonna be a team the pros are enamored with. We are like every pro I talk to, they're in the same boat as me again. I think it's a game we'll get into more about why we like them. And yeah, for sure. Surprisingly has not been good for the Saints to be at home. I couldn't believe that diving into the record at home, they just. There is like you said, you're right. There is no true home field advantage for this Saints team like there used to be. And the last two, two games we love. Pros love Denver. The pros love the Steelers. I told you there are some pros on Green Bay. It's not as much as I thought it was going to be earlier in the week. I think their early love did make sense. But the more pros I talked it seems like the more they're on Pittsburgh. And that that Dallas game does have some pros on it, but it's very, very more so the public on the Cowboys and it's the pros for the most part on that Denver side. So a lot of games that go through. I know it. Like Chad said, there's three bye weeks. Surprisingly amount of love for the favorites this week from some professionals I've talked to. So, yeah, very interesting week for this lineup.
- [28:06]
Chad Millman
All right, well, let's get into it and let's start right away with Chicago at Baltimore. That number was at six and a half. It is down to six at Hard Rock bet. I thought by now it would have gone in the other direction, but. Simon, the Baltimore Ravens are going to be our brass balls bet of the week. Presented by Hard Rock bet.
- [28:36]
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- [28:41]
Chad Millman
We think today is crazy with news. Yesterday, the first text I see in the morning is from a buddy in the Chicago text group that sent it overnight a video of Lamar Jackson allegedly at a late night hot food truck in Baltimore ordering loads and loads of food. Food. Not looking like he's connected to the conscious world. And because, you know, of the world we live in today, I immediately thought, well, this is weird. And of course by the end of the day, Lamar had said that wasn't true. It was an AI video. And you know, like, I don't know if that had an impact on the move at all. But meanwhile, he did not practice yesterday and it was limited in practice. It was a walkthrough. He was taking the third string snaps. And I got a text in the middle of the day from my buddy Mark Silverman, who's better known as Sylvie. He hosts the very popular show Waddle and Sylvie on ESPN Radio in Chicago and asked me what the line would be if Lamar wasn't playing. And it hadn't occurred to me that he wouldn't be playing. So that's when I went to check like what's happening with the practice reports and saw, I think if Lamar Jackson's not playing, it's pick, maybe the Bears are minus one.
- [30:20]
Simon Hunter
Did you, did you see what Houston did to the Ravens two weeks ago?
- [30:25]
Chad Millman
I did.
- [30:26]
Simon Hunter
They got embarrassed by a Houston team that's, we can both agree, not the greatest team in the world. They beat him by like 30 points. I mean, what are we doing here, like.
- [30:34]
Chad Millman
Well, I'm assuming that the Ravens are going to be significantly more healthy on defense. And as they did last year in the second half of the year, they gave Zach or tremendous amount of help to figure out how to fix that freaking defense and they got better at it. I'm banking on a little bit of president here and a little bit of health. But here's the bigger question. Lamar is playing. The line's down to six. We've made it our brass balls bet of the week. Here's a stat from our friend John Ewing, who tweeted this yesterday. Are you ready? This is good for us. Put us back together. Since 2000, 3, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games. So the Baltimore Ravens and our favorites against an opponent with a winning record, 56% against the spread. I just think this is a great spot for the Ravens. If Lamar is playing and he's healthy and, you know, I think we're hoping that he is. That's why we made it. The brass balls. The brass balls part here is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to be playing and thinking we're getting the Ravens at less than a touchdown because I do think they'll fix some of the issues on defense. I think they've gotten healthier, and I think that the Bears defense is going to have real issues against this rushing offense.
- [31:53]
Simon Hunter
You didn't even give out the best part of that stat as a favorite. So that exact team you just talked about, team with 20% fewer wins as a favorite of three points or more in this spot, those teams 30 and 14, 68% against the spread.
- [32:07]
Chad Millman
That's right. That's right. I forgot that. I mean, I didn't forget it.
- [32:11]
Simon Hunter
It's a Raven spot. You know, historically we've seen after bye weeks, Harbaugh has done well. I think he's 10 and 7 ATS after his bio week. And, you know, we're fading a Bears team that they're on our roll right now. Like we were talking. I don't know if that was, you know, on the show before the show, but they're four. They've covered in one four straight games. Yeah, like this is normally a team we try to avoid because they are so high right now and they're playing so well and the books keep undervaluing them and the pros are joining. I mean, like you just said, this is down to six at Hard Rock because there is so much unknown about what's. What's up with Lamar. But I am banking on it all being smoke screens and him being a total difference maker of this team, even if he is missing that half a step, him pushing the ball downfield like they got Isaiah likely back as well, which I think is gonna be huge for them. But that's what's been lacking. Like Cooper Rush can't put the ball downfield and he's no threat to run. So Derek Henry's just had a stacked box and they've been able to just put one on one on the outside. So Lamar changes everything. There's A reason every year he's in an in it for mvp. Me and you are simply betting on the known here which is scary. But we have to take the value. This is a great number, a great line for a raven scene that everything we've seen, they should be healthy in a get right spot here against the Bears. And like we said the trends, they love this spot as well for this this Ravens team.
- [33:37]
Chad Millman
Baltimore Ravens -6 at Hard Rock bet right now unfortunately I bet him at six and a half but we are on them. We are on the Ravens. That is our brass balls bet of the week. Sponsored by Hard Rock bet. I have the New York Giants plus seven and a half at Philly. There are actually three touchdown four touchdown games that I thought about putting in here. You mentioned the Carolina Panthers are seven and a half at the bill with hosting the Bills. Miami is seven and a half at Atlanta. Cleveland is seven at New England. You brought up the Panthers in sharp calls. I went with this one because it feels like the best combination of point spread value, getting the hook, situational value because it's a divisional game and matchup value. I don't have a strong opinion on any of anymore to be honest. So I would like a little bit of clarity.
- [34:35]
Simon Hunter
What do you mean? Like why are the pros betting the Giants?
- [34:38]
Chad Millman
No, no, no, no. I mean like if we were to have to include one of these four in our final five, I lean to the Giants. I think I'm off. I think I'm off the Panthers for the same reason the wise guys that you said in the sharp calls and we hadn't discussed this. I just don't trust Andy Dalton. This is a, a really good running team and I think it's a really good running team because of the things Bryce Young can do in the pocket and Andy Young. Andy Dalton can't do those things. So. And a little bit concerned that the Bills are getting some key players back who haven't been with them all season on the defensive side of the ball who could help with the rush. So I walked away from that one and I think I'm most leaning into the Giants at seven and a half.
- [35:24]
Simon Hunter
Okay. I got some good stats for that Bills game. We could talk about this Giants game for now. I, I probably come around more to the Giant side hearing why guys are pitching it. I, I'm fine with just simply having the Eagles in my money line around Robin and I can eat that seven and just get a seven and a half by one of the Giants. You're right. It's probably still too inflated of a number in a matchup that the Eagles just haven't proven they can close teams out. They haven't played two good halves of football this year. Like they just. It's. It's been their Achilles heel all season. No doubt. Could they beat this giants team by 20? Yes. This is a Giants team that lost their number one receiver and as dominant as their pass rush has been, you would think the Eagles with that offensive line be able to get some stops against those guys. But the Eagles lines hurt. Like we've talked about that Joe off the line is just injured.
- [36:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [36:15]
Simon Hunter
It's the main reason Saquon can't get going. So I agree. Giants out of all those guys, I, I agree with you. That's probably the. The best one. But it's also just be cautious. It's like it's this Giants team. We saw what can happen with them. Right. Like in that Saints game, what was a. Five straight turnovers. We know we're Ben into. We're bent into a rookie quarterback on the road in divisional game with an offense that he's making it work.
- [36:44]
Chad Millman
But.
- [36:45]
Simon Hunter
But like we said, they're, they're just, they're not real weapons on the outside. So yeah, there's. There is some hesitation for me. But I'll join you in the pros.
- [36:53]
Chad Millman
Of those four games, of those four games that I mentioned that are all seven, seven and a half Giants, Eagles, Bills, Panthers, Browns, New England and Miami at Atlanta. If we had to put one of those in, I'm worried we're good. We're like. I think we have four games we love and I think we're struggling to find a fifth of those four games. Would you put any of those in?
- [37:21]
Simon Hunter
I mean I like, like I talk. The Patriots is a horrible spot. I haven't a crazy stat about that game too. It's the trap of traps. I still like the Patriots. I just, I can't find. I can't find the points for the Browns. So that's a game we're definitely going to put in and lose. No doubt about it. Patriots.
- [37:39]
Chad Millman
But for the record, I don't. I haven't bet any of these games yet. So if we.
- [37:42]
Simon Hunter
You want to just be running. Do you want me to give you my stat for that Panthers?
- [37:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah, give it to me. Yeah.
- [37:47]
Simon Hunter
It's what we've been talking about ad nauseam about these home dogs. Early in the year when it crosses seven, it's. You can say it's lazy and we just keep cashing it it keeps hitting. It's just. It is what it is with the trend and it's all about the spot where these home teams are undervalued. There's a road favorite like the Bills that are being priced like they were last year. Now let's just dive into the trend. So in the first nine games of the year. Okay, what are we in? Chad is this week eight.
- [38:17]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [38:18]
Simon Hunter
They fit this home teams seven plus points. Seven points or more 40 and 11 against the spread at home. So we've hit this a bunch of times already this season. It's worked for us. We did the Giants, what was that two weeks ago against the Eagles on that Thursday game?
- [38:35]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [38:37]
Simon Hunter
Was that. No. I don't know if the Bengals were home. Was that Bengals game in Green Bay. I forget with Flacco but they were like a ten point dog game was.
- [38:48]
Chad Millman
I can't remember. I think it was the only time.
- [38:50]
Simon Hunter
We'Ve lost this bet is with Tennessee. So that's how good it's been where we bet these bad teams. It comes through now I looked in these stats. Josh. Josh Allen after a bye week in his career. 80 straight up. So this is a no brainer going to be in our money on round robin autumn auto spot for Allen. Historically he's performed really well in these type of matchups and I thought it was interesting this stat from our guys at BET Labs and this also includes our Broncos. Panthers and Broncos both won three straight games by seven points or less over the last decade. Teams that fit that description, 30 and 46 against espresso 40. Okay. Not egregious. But when they're listed as an underdog, which our Panthers are, here they are 10 and 26 straight up. 12, 23 and 1 against the spread. So that's bad. Exactly.
- [39:49]
Chad Millman
Those are both bad things for us.
- [39:51]
Simon Hunter
Well mainly for the Panthers, a little bit for the Broncos but really for the Panthers where it's like I've been trying to find ways for me to stay away from this one. And like anything, any lazy static I had a buddy send me a stat. It was like yeah, The Bills franchise history 30 against the spreading straight up against this Panthers team. Again, useless stat. But I love it because it's like okay, maybe I can avoid this game. So like you said, Bills are getting a bunch of guys back healthy. I was going to auto play this one But Andy Dalton 1 and 5 ATS as a backup coming in and being a starter is one win, one cover. Chad probably remembers against the Raiders they like won by like 20 points on this horrible Panthers team. Then he lost four straight. That's right.
- [40:31]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [40:32]
Simon Hunter
I I'm glad we can avoid this one. We'll have the Bills in our money line around Robin. It maybe throw him in a couple teasers. But yeah, this is I thought was a Panther spot. Thought the Trends liked it more. I read into it. It's, it's, it's become more of a Bill spot.
- [40:47]
Chad Millman
I let's, let's talk about a game that we know we're going to like. San Francisco at Houston. Houston is a one point favorite at Hard Rock. Bet this was Simon says. I hope people got it because at a lot of other places it's moved to one and a half. And the Niners had even more injuries on defense on, on Sunday and brutal. I think. I think they're having a really hard time getting pressure without Bosa and that has been the biggest problem for C.J. stroud. We saw a lot of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and more comfortable even though we've got a flipped line here just for a moment on the Texans and as you mentioned in sharp calls. So give me your take on why we're still feeling comfortable.
- [41:31]
Simon Hunter
I thought you'd better say something real crazy there. Yeah.
- [41:33]
Chad Millman
For it's so I'm walking away.
- [41:36]
Simon Hunter
Well, it's always funny. Like I'm out and about and I ran into a couple of buddies who do listen to our show and they're like, like, dude, are, are you the sucker for taking a 2 and 4 Houston team against a 5 and 2 49ers team on their favorite? Like, isn't this an easy bet on the 49ers? I'm like, when you say something like that to me, it's gonna be more confident on Houston where it's like I'm hoping more people think like he is where they're overlooking a lot of underlying stuff with this 49ers team. And like you said, the injuries is the biggest one. But to me it's the trends. Shanahan, whatever it is, he's moving in this era that he's. His teams just don't get up for games after wins since 2023. So like late December 2023, 49ers 1 and 13 against the spread after a straight up win and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and a half points. So that's, that's not just a little, little bit of Data that's over two years now. Like 2023 December. That was a long time ago. Just a different team after these wins in the sense that they just don't cover like the fact that they get overvalued by the general public after wins. Just shows that's happening time and time again in the market. So I really like that stat for Houston and I, I immediately thought to myself, okay, well, let's dive into what Chad talked about, right? The. The defense, how. How are they been and how. How is the 49ers offense against really good defenses? And you know, their last nine games against defenses, again, this is a Shanahan stat again defense that allowed 17 points or less per game, which is. That's the Houston's bread and butter right now. They're a great defensive team. Shanahan's 1 in 8 against the spread on the road or neutral sites since 2022. He's actually lost five straight in this exact spot. So already kind of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about, there's a ton of injuries to this 49ers team. And I felt like this was a get right spot for Houston that just got embarrassed on a short week. This is kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that taste out of their mouth. Move on to the next week in this 49ers team. Now with all the unknown of Purdy and a banged up Mac Jones and we still. We don't know who the quarterback is for this week. I just think there's so much going on now. This 49ers team, them getting to be. Them being 5 and 3 with all they've gone through, that makes more sense than this Houston team totally laying another egg at home here. And the 49ers move to 6 and 2. This feels like a bad spot. Plus four 9ers team. On the flip side, Houston, their defense, this. This should be a. A great matchup for them in the sense that they have two limited quarterbacks, they have two really good ed rushers on their team. And like we said that that defense, they put him in a spot to win against the Seahawks. The CJ just screwed us over. And Chad talked about it. CJ has no pass rush fear. That tends to be when he shines. So I'm glad you've come around this Texas team. I know it feels gross. I get why on Tuesday you were like, I hate this. But it just feels like it's a number you have to play in a spot. We have to bet.
- [44:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, like none of us are immune to recency bias. And so it Takes a minute. It takes a minute to come around.
- [44:35]
Simon Hunter
Especially when it's like 24 hours, you know.
- [44:37]
Chad Millman
I know it's really hard.
- [44:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [44:39]
Chad Millman
Speaking of really hard, New York jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've been trying to avoid this one.
- [44:45]
Simon Hunter
All right, let's avoid it then.
- [44:46]
Chad Millman
I mean, like, we're going to have to find five bets that we love. And it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrod Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have 48 hours to truly understand if he is, it feels like it might have to make it into one of our favorites. The first five weeks of the year, the jets played struggling or bad defenses in the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks and bills and average 23 points a game. The Bengals have allowed fewer than 27 points once this season. It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the kind of defense that might be Aaron Glow, Aaron Glenn and Jets proof, you know what I mean? And so.
- [45:29]
Simon Hunter
I don't know, I'm not going to waste people's time on it, but if, if you want to just if you don't like any of our other bets and you're like, what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week? Because it's a long term winner. This jets is a long term winner. I know it doesn't feel like it, but it's a unique spot. It's. I mean there's tons of stats. Like teams that are 04 like they are and they go on the road, they tend to cover these exact games. It's only. The only other team owned four this year that's gone on the road and covered was the Titans. The Titans did it. So that's what I mean. Like it's usually a spot for these teams. So I mean the Titans could do it. God damn jets, you got to do it as well. But I'm with you. I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm not going to make people bet this one. But yes, I will be on the Jets. We will put them in our money line around Robin. And I hate it too, people. That's gross.
- [46:13]
Chad Millman
We're just going to do it where it's just. I feel like it's happening. I feel like we can't avoid it. I feel like it's the beacon that is drawing us in. Tampa Bay at New Orleans, you mentioned this in sharp calls. That number is down to three and a half at Hard Rock. Bet it was five And a half.
- [46:31]
Simon Hunter
That's a big move.
- [46:32]
Chad Millman
So it's gone down two full points now. And look, you mentioned Baker is a little bit banged up. We know Mike Evans is out. Godwin Mecca Buka was not at full speed in that game the other night. I just don't trust the Saints. I feel like everyone is trying to force the Saints down my throat. Like we have to be betting on the Saints and they're a wise guy team. And like I hear it all. Spencer isn't as bad as his record and he's really good against pressure and he hasn't made turnover worthy plays. They're really unlucky. I hear it all. And like we see the imbalance between the bets and the money. The bucks are getting 70% of the bets and the Saints are getting 70% of the money. Like it is 100% the sharp side. The Saints, we've seen the activity, we've seen the number move, huge reverse line movement, meaning that the bets are coming in on the box and the money and the line is moving in the direction of the Saints. Fishy.
- [47:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Again, it doesn't mean it's the right side just because the pros are on it. But it's like I said, you should have grabbed the four and a half. Should have grabbed the five and a half that was going to be the pro side just because it's a number that is inflated and just because of the injuries. Like Chad said, it got no Godwin, no Mike Evans, no Bucky Irving. Like Mecca Abuka is not full strength. That's a big deal. Like those things do matter. The thing you can hang your hat on, it's. It's Baker versus Spencer, Rattler and Rattler and the Saints team, they have not been good at home. Like even this year they have not really been covered. Even though I thought they played well at home, surprisingly, they have not been covering at home. So you're right. Probably overvalued by professionals. I talked a little bit about it. Like how weird of this Bucks team is like minus one point differential and Evan Amras had an amazing stat about it. Basically they're the first team since 2022 to be eight games in with a winning percentage like that and a negative point differential. The other two teams or the Browns and the Bills, neither of them end up covering in this exact spot in this week because it's like it's just simply a team that plays close, undervalued, overvalued by the market. That makes sense. Baker's career, I've Talked about it like him as a dog. Always feel better taking Baker as a dog.
- [48:56]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [48:57]
Simon Hunter
Really hate taking Baker as a favorite, let alone a favorite against divisional opponents. In his career, he's played 21 games against divisional opponents as a favorite. He is 7 and 14 against the spread. So since he's been drafted, of the 82 starters in the league, he, he has the worst win percentage against divisional foes as a favorite. So just understand what you're betting into here. If you are taking the Bucks side, it's not a good number. It's not a good side. Like Chad's saying, this Saints team, no one's going to feel good about betting them. Right? They have not. Probably. You're probably right. They do not deserve to be getting this much line movement. It is now down to three and a half at Hard Rock. I'm not going to force that in. Like to me, four and a half, five and a half. I felt confident there. I won't chase this number, but I still think if you want to bet this, I don't think it's moved enough. I have it at three. You're still getting a good number technically on this, this Saints team. But I need every point. I need every point if I'm gonna bet Spencer Rattler. And it was the same reason last week I didn't force them in with us against that Bears team because it's like it's, it was Spencer Rattler outdoors in the elements. I'm just not gonna get there. So, yeah, it's not great for Baker and Baker's short career with the Bucks as a favorite on the road. He's four and five against the spread. So it's just, it's not a good Baker spot. That's what I'm trying to get people understand. You just don't, don't force this one in this week. We said it's a short week, not many options. Either play the Saints or don't play this number at all.
- [50:23]
Chad Millman
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- [52:09]
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- [53:09]
Chad Millman
What do you think makes the perfect snack? Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient. Could you be more specific when it's cravenient? Okay, like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at a.m. p.m. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at am pm. I'm seeing a pattern here.
- [53:26]
Simon Hunter
Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.
- [53:28]
Chad Millman
Crave, which is anything from am, pm.
- [53:30]
Simon Hunter
What more could you want? Stop by AMPM where the snacks and.
- [53:33]
Chad Millman
Drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient.
- [53:35]
Ariat Advertiser
That's cravenience ampm.
- [53:37]
Simon Hunter
Too much good stuff. Do you want to talk that Patriots Browns game or no?
- [53:42]
Chad Millman
I don't know what to do with it because it feels like the spot where we should be completely walking away if we know better from. From the Browns because it's not where they are. It's like we found a winning formula.
- [53:55]
Simon Hunter
No, no. I'm on New England. Aren't you on New England with me?
- [53:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England. I don't know how the Browns are getting any points. Like Dylan Gabriel is not an NFL quarterback. That's it.
- [54:08]
Simon Hunter
I saw this amazing stat. It goes to the Patriots and the Bears and it's basically about these teams in these four plus game ats win streaks like straight up and against the spread. So those teams that didn't. This is again Evan Abrams. Amazing stat is those exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up and against the spread in this exact spot, they are 1426, one against the spread since 2022. They are 1 in 14 against the spread in this spot. So it is like I know exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team.
- [54:46]
Chad Millman
We're stepping into it and like to be clear, like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not. Other than the Panthers.
- [54:54]
Simon Hunter
No, I took them at six and they were six and a half at a couple of books. I took that.
- [54:57]
Chad Millman
I like. I have not bet the Falcons, I have not bet the Giants and I have not bet the Patriots and I'm not sure that I will. The only bet. Let me give you a picture set.
- [55:10]
Simon Hunter
To make you feel better then.
- [55:11]
Chad Millman
Well, hold on. The only game I've bet of those four seven to seven and a half point spreads is the Panthers. And that's only because I bet it in the summer when I thought the line would be much shorter because I was so in on the Panthers. Go ahead.
- [55:24]
Simon Hunter
So just this year, this, this feels like a variable stat. The Patriots, when they go up by a touchdown or more so 6 plus points, they're 50 straight up and against the spread this season.
- [55:36]
Chad Millman
That's why you bet it. You bet variable Exactly.
- [55:39]
Simon Hunter
That's what I'm like thinking this game. I'm trying to throw out all the other numbers where it's like that. That sums up the variable type of team he's going to be this year. Where it's like if he. If he gets up a lead in this game, I just. How do the Browns come back? So Chad's right. We should try to avoid this one. I don't think I'm gonna be able to. I will be shocked come Sunday morning. Like, I'm gonna probably bet in the Patriots minus seven. I just. I can't get over how to. How different this Browns team is on the road and how bad of a spot is for their quarterback. So. Yeah, I just.
- [56:08]
Chad Millman
Terrible.
- [56:09]
Simon Hunter
It's. It's interesting those, those trends pointing to it being a bad spot for the Patriots, but they feel a little bit like a unicorn here.
- [56:16]
Chad Millman
Terrible. Dallas at Denver. Denver minus three. Now, this was Chat's choice when it was three and a half. It moved in my direction basically because I move lines. And so nothing really moving me off of this pick other than nightmares of Bo Nix throwing into empty spots in the middle of his own, which he is not as good as he is against man to man. And unfortunately Matt Ebro Floose loves to play his own. Except for last week when he played man to man against third and fourth string receivers. So I liked when you said the wise guys were on this because I very much wanted to be a Broncos game.
- [57:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I was really confident.
- [57:12]
Chad Millman
I misspoke. I misspoke. I'm sorry. I bet this at three. It moved up to three and a half and now it's back down to three at Hard Rock. Bet. I apologize. I move lines.
- [57:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. When we talk Tuesday, I was really confident. This one really loved Denver here. Technically not the best. Just because Chad's talked about. We're. We're backing Bo Nicks, who as good as he's been this year with all these crazy comfort behind wins, we're telling people to take him at minus three, minus three and a half as a favorite. Like that's not ideal for a quarterback that seems like he can't roll these teams. Like we need him to roll Dallas because Dax gonna get his. We already talked about. Dak is one of the few quarterbacks I can remember that is on an incredible run with it. Terrible defense when he's not turning the ball over. He's just playing so smart. Like the. The biggest thing we can take away from deck is hoping for three and outs and we have that. We've talked about it. This Broncos front should give them real problems and, you know, historical data. I talked to a lot of old, older guys who talked about, you know, this is a unique spot where the Broncos tend to always own this Cowboys team. Doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are. You can go way back. And I was like, all right, is that true? And I did. Look, last time Dallas beat Denver was with Troy Aikman. So it's been a rough go for Dallas historically against this Denver team. And I think me and you are really banking on the defense. I know Bo Nix. We're gonna need him to move the ball. We're gonna need him to score. But I like to think Sean Payne can scheme it around this terrible Dallas defense. There's gonna be plenty of options and holes. We just can't have him do what he's been doing, which is slow starts. Like he gets. He puts himself in these holes, and then we're asking Bo Nicks to throw us out of these holes, which is not a position we want to be in. So. Yeah, I know. I've had a couple people send me those trends. Teams that basically come from behind like they did. It's horrible for them historically. The following game, right, they tend to not cover, but me and Chad always say there's a 30, 36 chain stat on the other side of that trend. So we're just hoping Bo's at 36. We just need him to show up here. And it really is a bet, though, on that Broncos front. Like, if we get pressure on Dak Tax due to have a letdown game, he's been so flawless. They, you know, the weapons they have. Dallas, this. This historically should be a bad matchup for them. So pretty unique spot, right? The total, I believe in this one's 50 as well. Bo Nix, his career totals above 45 as a favorite. He's owing three straight up and against the spread. So it's a prove it game for Bo Nicks. You're getting a bad defense. You need to put up points. This is not going to be the type of game you're going to be able to win. 20 to 10, right. I think Dak's going to get his. So we're. We're betting on. We're betting on Bonix here, Chad, but I will stay with you. I will still back this Broncos team, especially at minus three. I think that's a great number.
- [60:08]
Chad Millman
It makes me nervous, I'm not going to lie. But I'm in. I'M totally in Green Bay at Pittsburgh. The last game we're discussing purely a play. Purely a play. It's Pittsburgh plus three. Purely a play on the Steelers as dogs at home. We do like what we've seen from Pittsburgh as a defense now that everyone has returned from injury, especially Alex Highsmith. Why do you laugh at me?
- [60:29]
Simon Hunter
We know what happened last week against the Bengals. But you know.
- [60:32]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but generally. Generally, I also am not that sentence.
- [60:36]
Simon Hunter
People are gonna be like, what the hell is this guy talking about?
- [60:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah, people. Like when we said. Like when. When we said the bears would be 11 point favorites on the road with an 18 point swing. I'm not a buyer of this packers team. Like, they just don't seem to be able to be as great as their individual talent right now. I don't know what's going on there, but this is the rah rah Mike Tomlins. But that's it. That. That's all we're betting here.
- [61:05]
Simon Hunter
Again, one of us watched the Ravens play Houston. All of us were out apple picking.
- [61:09]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God.
- [61:11]
Simon Hunter
I don't know why they. They're gallivanting. It's very bizarre. Yeah, no brainer. We're never gonna avoid this game. We're gonna get burned by it. But historically, we won't like, long.
- [61:21]
Chad Millman
We're gonna get burned by everything this week.
- [61:23]
Simon Hunter
Well, it just feels like. It feels too easy. I don't know to you, but it's like, I can't believe I'm still able to get Pittsburgh here at three and a half. It just feels bizarre. I don't know who's betting Green Bay minus three and a half other than smart professionals. Because the public, they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes. And on this packers team. So what we really have to dive into is just what we talked a little bit about with Tomlin. After his defense gets embarrassed, he bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out. After allowing 30 plus points, Tomlin's defenses, 29:12:1 against the spreads, 71%. That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at your work when they're at home after a bad defensive performance like that. 218 and 1 71, 72% under Tom and against the spread. So it's like, all right, those are stats. We were looking for that that proves that our point that he gets his defenses up after those type of games. And a lot of it's being made in the media about Rogers playing against his former team. The trends Actually don't point to that being a good spot. Basically, every quarterback that's played their former team failed to cover except Drew Brees, who covered and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically it shows that these guys get in their own heads. It's. It's a bigger, a big moment, and it's tough for them to just play the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff on our side. The packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh. Their last six games are only six the last 50 years. So the last time they won was in 1970. And, you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh, the last time they, they started that run of beating Green Bay at home, it was Terry Bradshaw beating, you know, a Bart. A Bart star led team. So it's been a long time. You're betting Green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't happened in 50 years, people. So I love all those trends that point to Tomlin. I love that we talked about with the defense. They seem to get right in these exact spots. And I just think our, our view of Green Bay is right, that they're just. Something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed either. The offense is just a little off. Their defense still isn't right. I, I think we're, we're getting a good value here on this Pittsburgh team that we talked about. They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin usually has those guys bounce back in the spot. So trends. Love it. We love it. Can't avoid it. Gonna. Gonna hammer this one. Probably be one of my bigger bets this week.
- [63:53]
Chad Millman
Well, let's talk about that. I will review where we stand heading into Sunday at the end of the show, but you're bringing up your biggest bets. What are Simon's biggest bets?
- [64:02]
Simon Hunter
Pull up those pants and be a man. Honestly, I've not gone too crazy yet this week because of all the unknowns, with injuries and stuff, like taking a pretty big position in Houston just because I was worried that number was going to shoot up two and a half. It really is held pretty strong at this point. I'll get there. On Pittsburgh, I'm really going to be doing these Moneyline favorites. Like, I, I just don't see a world where the Patriots lose. I don't see a world where the Bills lose to Andy Dalton. Like, the Bills are super desperate. So this week, just like last week I talked about, I threw a lot of those favorites together. I think we went 5 and 1 or 4 and 1 on the favorite money line. Like, it's just, it's how it is right now. People like you can say you're, we're getting lucky. Like, yeah, did I feel like I got lucky with Denver's money line? Yeah, Green Bay's money line. Like that game came down to a fourth and two where Green Bay went for and they got it and scored a touchdown. Like, I know it's just the way the league is now. The truck keeps winning. So I get why you don't love the spreads this week. To me, it just feels like the books have gotten really sharp with these lines. So, you know, Denver -3, I'm going to take a position on it will be one of my bigger bets. Now. I much rather have a ton of money on Hertz money line and Josh Allen's money line than Bo Nicks on the spread. So it is a tough week with that where it's like, I just, I don't trust some of these guys and I'm having to take positions on them just because the number is right. But to me, you know, that Ravens game, if Lamar is cleared, I'm probably going to take. I know. Chad can't believe I think it's a 14 point swing, but I'm telling you, Cooper Rush is that bad. I think Lamar is that big of an improvement that offense and even if his legs aren't fully back, his arm is good enough now say flowers, Isaiah, likely all those pieces there. I think it's a, it's a great matchup for this Ravens team against a Bears team that, you know, incredible run by this Bears team. But eventually it's going to catch them. They just can't keep covering these games, can they, Chad? So I, I hate that we've missed it. I know it's your team, but I have to sell the Bears at some point. It feels like, oh, I'm there.
- [66:02]
Chad Millman
I'm totally there. All right, let's talk about our. Before we get to the favorite parlay, let's talk about our underdog parlay.
- [66:13]
Simon Hunter
My dog likes your dog.
- [66:15]
Chad Millman
Your dog likes my dog. Steelers.
- [66:20]
Simon Hunter
Steelers. Jets.
- [66:22]
Chad Millman
Jets.
- [66:25]
Simon Hunter
Get them. Saints.
- [66:26]
Chad Millman
Saints.
- [66:28]
Simon Hunter
Now this is where it gets tough.
- [66:29]
Chad Millman
Yeah, this is where it gets a little tricky.
- [66:31]
Simon Hunter
I mean, of course, at once. 70 on Thursday night games. Did you see that stupid stat?
- [66:37]
Chad Millman
Oh, really?
- [66:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's incredible.
- [66:40]
Chad Millman
I don't love doing a Thursday night game. Like people can't.
- [66:43]
Simon Hunter
True. It is plus one advantage of that. I want to get a little taste of that one. How about the Giants I can't see it, but I'll take the value. Right. It's plus 330. That's a good number. I don't think they've been Eagles and back to back. So beat them twice in a season since 2007.
- [67:00]
Chad Millman
Carolina can't get there.
- [67:03]
Simon Hunter
I just can't. I mean, for we're being honest, we should put the Bears in in case Lamar doesn't play.
- [67:10]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's a good idea.
- [67:11]
Simon Hunter
Okay, like, again, I have nothing on their number but a plus 230 if it comes out. Like people. Chad thinks it's crazy. People on the show might think it's crazy. I just. That's how low I am on Cooper Rush. I just could not get over how horrible his film has been since he's been a Raven. So if I was him, I'd start the other backup. Like just. He. He is doing zero for their offense. He's just horrible. So. Yeah, that's. That's. That line could easily flip. If it's not Lamar could easily see that become a plus. Plus three. Plus three and a half.
- [67:41]
Chad Millman
Ravens line favorites parlay. Patriots, Bills, Chiefs Take the Chiefs down.
- [67:52]
Simon Hunter
To minus five and a half or minus six and a half. Colts take the Colts down to minus five and a half. Minus six and a half. Gotta put Denver in. We both believe in them.
- [68:04]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So, okay, Pat's Bills, Chiefs that are not line of five and a half, six and a half. Colts that are not line of outline of five and a half, six and a half and then Denver. That is our favorites parlay. Again, the underdog parlay. Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants. No. Who did we say? Steelers, Jets. Do we say Giants?
- [68:29]
Simon Hunter
No, we. We did put giants in the apples.
- [68:32]
Chad Millman
330 Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants.
- [68:35]
Simon Hunter
And then for. For survivor don't hate Patriots this week. Don't. I. I'm just. I'm. I'm not going to do it personally just because for my contest I still have the Colts and I just. I'm trying to go super safe. So survivor I am going Colts don't hate Patriots. And you know, obviously if you are a wild child, you could do Cincinnati Bengals in the Flacco, but I, I just. I can't get there. I. I know some pros that are doing it because they're like, when am I gonna use the Bengals again? I just. I can't. I cannot do it. I cannot trust Flacco.
- [69:09]
Chad Millman
Who are you doing for Sharper Square?
- [69:17]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I guess I gotta do. I gotta take Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers plus three or Three and a half. Whatever I can get.
- [69:24]
Chad Millman
All right, so Steelers for you there. I am gonna take, I don't know, a ton of options here.
- [69:34]
Simon Hunter
It's an ugly week.
- [69:36]
Chad Millman
It's an.
- [69:37]
Simon Hunter
I love it, though.
- [69:39]
Chad Millman
It's so ugly. Like, I might have to double up. I think I have to go with Denver. Don't.
- [69:47]
Simon Hunter
Don't do that. Don't put your eggs on one basket. Why don't you do the Giants? You like them seven and a half.
- [69:54]
Chad Millman
All right, let me.
- [69:55]
Simon Hunter
Don't double down. Don't do it.
- [70:00]
Chad Millman
You know what I'm gonna do? It's crazy, but I'm feeling lucky.
- [70:07]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [70:08]
Chad Millman
New York Jets.
- [70:10]
Simon Hunter
Taking the jets, six and a half.
- [70:12]
Chad Millman
I'm doing it.
- [70:13]
Simon Hunter
I love it. Look at you.
- [70:15]
Chad Millman
New York jets, sharp versus Square. You're taking the Steelers at three and a half. I'm taking the jets at six and a half. That's how we roll on this show. What a crazy, crazy day this has been. Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back in Shepherd Square YouTube on Sunday morning. Please drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon as we make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube. Arpersquare. Like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [71:01]
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- [71:31]
Simon Hunter
This is an Iheart podcast.