The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets

Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Chad Millman & Simon Hunter
Presented by: Hard Rock Bet (part of The Volume Podcast Network)

Episode Overview

This "Sharper Square" episode delivers a thorough and high-energy breakdown of the NFL Wild Card Weekend betting slate, focusing on making “squares” sharper and earning attention from wise guys. Hosts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter analyze sides, totals, and betting trends for every playoff matchup, offering actionable insights, professional viewpoints, and stats to back up their positions. They also reflect on the significance of coaches, playoff experience, betting trends, and the importance of adapting to the unique context of each matchup.

Key Themes & Purpose

• Prepping for the NFL Wild Card Round: Deep dives on both spreads and totals for each game.
• Blending Trends with Context: Weighing historical playoff betting trends against current team form and injuries.
• Sharp vs. Square Plays: Identifying where professional (sharp) money is landing versus public (square) sentiment.
• Coaching & Quarterback Experience: Evaluating the effect of coaching continuity and playoff inexperience at quarterback.
• Totals as Contest Strategy: Discussion on using totals (over/under) in contest picks instead of just sides.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter, College Football & Coaching Chops (02:00–10:27)

• Chad’s College Football Excitement: Chad is flying to Atlanta to watch Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff – ties the theme of team turnarounds to football betting and confidence.
• Coaching Loyalty & Fit:
  • Signetti, Indiana's coach, is praised for staying, with both hosts drawing parallels to NFL coaches who know and stick to their level ("he’s a college guy through and through" –Simon, 06:09).
  • Quote, Simon: “It just sounds like this guy loves it there and he’s not going to leave. ...One of the best coaches in college football is going to stay.” (06:00)
• Trend Dismissal: Chad argues that name brand schools don’t matter as much as the right coach and resources in modern college football.

2. NFL Wild Card Weekend Games: Trends & Early Lines (10:39–13:32)

• Unders Dominate Wild Card Round:
  • Stat from Killer Sports: Since 2001, wild card games have gone under 59% of the time, jumping to 76% if it's the teams' first meeting of the year.
  • Quote, Chad: “If we decide, all right, like, at the end of the day, we just like the unders better than we like the sides. We can totally do that.” (18:45)

3. Game-by-Game Analysis & Bet Positions

A. Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Line: Rams -10.5; Total: 46.5
Discussion: (15:04–19:39)

• Sharp Support for Rams Despite Trends Favoring Panthers:
  • Historical trend: >4-pt road favorites in playoffs are 1-8 ATS since 1970.
  • But Simon leans Rams: “They’re the better team. ...It feels like they know Devonte Adams is going to be back...” (15:53)
• Counter-Trends:
  • Teams in their first playoff after a <=6 win season (Carolina) are 21-38 ATS.
  • Teams avenging a recent loss (Rams/Packers) are 61-39 ATS.
• Weather & Totals: Pros are heavily betting the under due to possible weather and offensive styles.

B. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Line: Packers -1.5 (moved from Bears favored); Total: 45.5
Discussion: (19:51–25:16)

• Pro Money on Packers: Wise guy line movement shifts Packers into favor as the better-rested team.
• Key Trends:
  • First-time playoff starter (Caleb Williams) historically struggles: 20-40 straight up in this spot.
  • Quote, Simon: “The line’s telling you something. ...It’s not good.” (21:12)
• Under as Key Play: Both prefer the under in the contest: “I love the under as well.” (24:32)

C. Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Jaguars +1; Total: 52
Discussion: (28:17–36:25)

• Split Sharp Action: Money on both sides, but some respected Jags backing.
• Key Betting Angles:
  • Underdogs Rule Wild Card: Since 2017, dogs are 16-3-8 ATS (61%); even better in wild card round.
  • Jags ATS as Home Dog: Simon leans Jags +1.5 but notes how close the teams are: “Whoever wins this game wins by one point, maybe a late field goal...” (32:52)
  • Chad relays Matt Mitchell’s confidence in the Bills – Bills win = Ben & Jerry’s for the neighborhood!
• Totals: Both see the over as a fun, viable play.

D. San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -4.5/5; Total: 44.5
Discussion: (36:29–41:28)

• Eagles as the Play (with Lane Johnson in):
  • Quote, Chad: “I do think he is like Trent Williams for the Niners. This team is just so different when he is in there.” (36:29)
  • Simon: “It’s just bad. It’s all bad for the 49ers... They are walking into an absolute eagle’s nest.” (38:57)
  • Hurts’ home dominance: 31-5 straight up, 4-1 ATS.
  • Injury concerns for Niners at key positions (Trent Williams, WR).
• Sharp/Favorite Money: Despite trend advice to take dogs, Simon likes the Eagles’ spot here for both side and under.

E. Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Line: Chargers +3.5; Total: 46.5
Discussion: (41:28–46:42)

• Brass Balls Bet: Chargers are Simon’s bold play.
  • Quote, Simon: “He’s been great with Harbaugh... This year he’s 4-0 straight up as an underdog.” (43:19)
  • Despite public/pro action on New England, Simon trusts the Chargers’ defense vs. rookie Drake May.
  • Under is a secondary preference due to playoff nerves and weather.

F. Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers +3.5 → +3; Total: 39.5
Discussion: (52:48–59:31)

• Steelers as Favorite Sharp Play: Heavy professional money moving line toward Steelers +3.
  • Quote, Simon: “They are a well-coached veteran team at home... Another game where we’re expecting the elements.” (56:21, 57:43)
• Houston’s Dome Struggles Outdoors: Texans offense has shown drop-off in the elements.
• Monday Night Tomlin Factor: “The Tomlin voodoo at home... it's just the feels man.”
• Under Also Noted: Both hosts again like the under due to matchup and weather.
• Fading Hot Streaks: Fading teams on 8+ game winning streaks is 27-13 ATS.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Simon on Layoff Favorites Trends:
  “Since the 1970 merger, teams that close as four-point favorites or more on the road in the playoffs are one and eight against the spread. Losing their last eight.” (15:12)
• Chad on Smart Betting Contradiction:
  “We’re going to end up fading one trend or another here. We’re going to step in it with something. Sometimes, Simon, you have to know enough to go against the trend. You don’t win big money by just going with the trends all the time.” (40:49)
• Simon on Steelers Homefield Edge:
  “Fans in that stadium, the renegade music going, it’s just. It’s the feels man. It really is pretty awesome.” (58:25)

Quick Picks & Contest Strategy (60:07–64:36)

• Simon’s Biggest Bets:
  • Steelers +3 (“By far my biggest bet.”)
  • Eagles -4.5
  • Chargers +3.5
  • Totals: Under in Eagles, Patriots, and Bears games (“Those are my three biggest under bets so far this week.”)
• Chad’s Top Total: Bears-Packers under 45.5
• Sharp vs. Square Picks:
  • Simon: Eagles -4.5
  • Chad: Bears-Packers under 45.5 (61:57–62:06)
• Parlay Ideas:
  • Fade first-time playoff QBs: Chargers, Rams, Packers
  • Favorite side parlay: Rams (down to -2.5), Packers, Eagles

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | | -------------- | ------------------------------------------| | 02:00–10:27 | Opening banter, college football, coaching| | 10:39–13:32 | Trends & wild card totals stats | | 15:04–19:39 | Rams at Panthers | | 19:51–25:16 | Packers at Bears | | 28:17–36:25 | Bills at Jaguars | | 36:29–41:28 | Niners at Eagles | | 41:28–46:42 | Chargers at Patriots | | 52:48–59:31 | Texans at Steelers | | 60:07–64:36 | Best bets, sharp vs. square, contest talk |

Overall Tone & Style

• Conversational, lively, highly opinionated – especially on coaching philosophy and betting contrarianism.
• Educative and statistical, targeting listeners wanting sharp angles but also entertainment
• Friendly jabs and banter between Chad and Simon, with injections of personal stories and humor.
• Focus on helping listeners not only with picks, but understanding the rationale—so "the squares get sharper."

For Quick Reference (Game Sides/Totals/Leans):

| Game | Lean | Key Reasoning | | -------------------------------- | --------- | --------------------------------------------------------------- | | Rams at Panthers | Rams -10.5| Superior team, trends favor Dogs but context favors Rams | | Packers at Bears | Packers, U| Wise guy money on Packers, love the under most | | Bills at Jaguars | Jags +1 | Split, but home dog edges, both like over as side preference | | Niners at Eagles | Eagles -4.5| Eagles healthier, Niners banged up, Hurts home trends | | Chargers at Patriots | Chargers+3.5| Brass balls play, rookie QB fade, love under as contest option | | Texans at Steelers | Steelers+3 | Sharp play, cold-weather angle, love under too |

Final Note & Sign-Off

Chad: “We will be back on Saturday morning with our final five for the contest... Fasten your seat belts. It’s playoff time.” (64:36)

Listen to The Herd’s "Sharper Square" for Wild Card Weekend for a compelling primer on how data, sharp action, and gut instinct collide in playoff football betting.