Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square – Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Co-host: Simon Hunter
Guest: John Middlekauff (Three and Out podcast host, former NFL personnel man)

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Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square" dives deeply into Super Bowl LX analysis, featuring expert insights from John Middlekauff. The conversation covers the evolving Super Bowl betting market, critical coaching decisions, the transformation and maturation of Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, and the significant impact of Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel. The tone is passionate, insider, and at times irreverent, blending betting sharpness with authentic, behind-the-scenes football talk.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Life After Football Sundays

• 02:47-07:10:
  Chad and Simon open with personal stories about their first football-free weekend in months, highlighting the transitional, slightly disorienting feeling as fans head into Super Bowl week.
  • Memorable Moment (04:22): Simon’s storm-fueled surfing adventure in New Jersey as an aging surfer:

  "Basically if I go out there, I have to catch my breath for about 20 minutes before I can catch a wave... I told Chad I almost died" —Simon Hunter [05:38]

2. Vikings GM Firing and NFL Executive Decisions

• 07:10-10:46:
  Chad discusses the Vikings firing GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, connecting the move to Sam Darnold’s Super Bowl run with Seattle and missed opportunities in Minnesota. Statistics are provided on poor draft productivity.
  • Simon highlights the ego and reactionary nature of NFL front offices:

  "If Sam Darnold loses last week, maybe he [the GM] keeps his job, but as soon as he won that game, I really did... feel bad for the Vikings because they had that guy in the building." —Simon Hunter [09:15]

3. Super Bowl Betting Market and Drake May’s Injury

• 13:05-17:00:
  Chad and Simon introduce John Middlekauff, starting with the Super Bowl spread’s stability around Seahawks -4.5. They dissect the meaning of little movement despite QB Drake May’s (Patriots) shoulder injury.

  • Key Insight:
    The market’s lack of movement signals confidence in May’s availability and health.
  • Notable Quote:

  "Until I see the guy not being able to function, I'm gonna expect Drake May as normal." —John Middlekauff [13:50]

  • Simon breaks down why sportsbooks are “stuck” at Seahawks -4.5:

  "If they do move it off an injury like this... double the amount of Seahawks money. The public would feel even more confident... they’re kind of stuck." —Simon Hunter [15:04]

4. The Size and Shape of Super Bowl Betting

• 17:00-20:11:
  The conversation shifts to the volume and diversity of bets, particularly props, and why understanding bookmaking risk is critical for bettors.
  • Chad explains:

  "All of our liabilities right now are Saquon Barkley props... the side had nothing to do with it. It's just an interesting way to look at it" —Chad Millman [19:54]

5. Sam Darnold’s Transformation & Role in Super Bowl

• 20:11-26:01 and 31:19-36:39:
  Detailed evaluation of Sam Darnold’s career rebirth in Seattle, and how his improved decision-making, confidence, and fit within the Kubiak-Shanahan offense are central to the Seahawks’ title hopes.

  • Middlekauff on Darnold’s growth:

  "If he plays in this Kubiak Shanahan offense, just under control with how their defense is playing... he’s got a big arm and he’s mobile... If he doesn’t turn the ball over, they will not lose." —John Middlekauff [21:09]

  • On Darnold's optimal approach:

  "In this offense, if it's going well... we're going to have less than 30 attempts, half are going to be layup throws. Then there's 10-20% where you need to make a play. And that's where Sam... if you make the right play, which he did against the Rams, they'll beat anybody." —John Middlekauff [25:00]

  • Discussion splits credit between game plan evolution (more runs, safe throws) and Darnold’s personal development (confidence after clutch performances, especially the key drive vs. Rams).
  • Simon compares Darnold's current profile to last year’s Jalen Hurts:

  "Just like Hurts last year… if he makes mistakes, he will lose it. If he plays sound football… I just can’t see the Seahawks losing." —Simon Hunter [36:39]

6. Patriots Coach Mike Vrabel: The X-Factor

• 37:22-42:11:
  The panel dives into how Vrabel, with his Belichickian management, vast postseason experience, and knack for leveraging the rulebook, gives the Patriots a fighting chance, even as significant underdogs.

  • John Middlekauff’s praise:

  "When it comes to football, [Vrabel] is brilliant... when Sean Payton said, we had the look we wanted—that’s what makes me nervous. He’s a freaking genius." —John Middlekauff [39:32]

  • Notable segment:
    • Vrabel and Josh McDaniels together are described as a rare coaching edge in the big game, especially with game/clock management.
    • Chad and Simon recall Vrabel’s infamous “Belichickian” clock tactics vs. the Patriots to ice out Tom Brady (now being put to use for New England):

    "He was calling the timeout, taking the penalties... all the ways to use the clock and burn it down. He did the same thing this year." —Chad Millman [42:11]

7. Vrabel as Coach, Leader & Sideline Genius

• 46:07-47:58:
  Middlekauff emphasizes how Vrabel's unique mix of player and coach experience lets him relate to the whole roster and thrive in big moments.

  "Their coaching experience was really their playing experience... anyone in that room, he can relate to. He's a stud. He's an easy guy to enjoy watching." —John Middlekauff [47:58]

8. Super Bowl LX: Key Matchups and Closing Thoughts

• 48:05-48:40:
  The show concludes with consensus: Despite Vrabel’s edge, Seattle’s quality, depth, and Darnold’s new poise make them heavy favorites.
  • Chad’s summary:

  "I actually feel like the key factors in this game are Mike Vrabel and Sam Darnold more than maybe Drake May, because what Mike Vrabel can do... is put them in the best possible position to keep it close." —Chad Millman [48:09]

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Notable Quotes

• "If he [Darnold] doesn’t turn the ball over, they will not lose." —John Middlekauff [21:09]
• "You can lose confidence and feel like you're never going to get it back, and when you've got it, you feel like it ain’t ever going to leave." —John Middlekauff [32:28]
• "Vrabel, from a game management standpoint, is a freaking genius." —John Middlekauff [39:32]

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Important Timestamps

• 03:00: Chad’s LeBron/Lakers game experience
• 13:05: Introduction of John Middlekauff; setting lines re: Drake May injury
• 15:04: Simon on why spread isn’t moving
• 19:54: Shift to prop bets as major book liability
• 21:09: Middlekauff on Darnold’s path and key to Seahawks’ success
• 25:00: Kubiak/Shanahan offensive structure and Darnold's fit
• 32:28: The importance of confidence and the mental aspect for QBs
• 36:39: Simon’s analogy to Jalen Hurts and last year’s Eagles
• 39:32: Vrabel’s immense value, creativity, and game management
• 47:58: Vrabel’s player-turned-coach credentials and communication skills
• 48:09: Chad on Vrabel and Darnold as Super Bowl’s defining factors

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Podcast Tone

Smart, fast-paced, conversational, deeply analytical but always accessible. The banter is friendly with a mix of sharp betting perspective, hard-earned football experience, and a touch of nostalgia and humor.

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Summary Takeaway

The path to Super Bowl LX revolves around Seattle’s Sam Darnold making the right decisions inside an offense schemes to protect him, while Mike Vrabel’s coaching genius gives New England its best hope for an upset. The betting market shows little concern about the Patriots’ QB injury, and most sharp money favors Seattle as the stronger, deeper team—unless Darnold turns back into his old, mistake-prone self under pressure.

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For listeners looking to bet or just sound smart at your Super Bowl party, the keys:

• Trust the Seahawks’ structure—but don’t underestimate Vrabel’s mastery of the game’s margins.
• Props, not the spread, are where the real bookmaking sweat lies.
• In the end, this Super Bowl, like so many others, could swing on the decisions of a single player (Darnold) and a single coach (Vrabel).

Transcript

[John Middelkoff]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Chad Millman]

Guaranteed Human early birds always rise to.

[John Middelkoff]

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[Simon Hunter]

Hey, this is US Olympic Gold medalist.

[John Middelkoff]

Tara Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic Gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.

[Simon Hunter]

As athletes, our lives are about having.

[John Middelkoff]

Clear path and a team that you can absolutely trust.

[Chad Millman]

So when it came to getting the.

[John Middelkoff]

Best mortgage, we chose PennyMac. PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you learn more at pennymac.com PennyMac Loan Services.

[Simon Hunter]

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[John Middelkoff]

Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Conditions and restrictions may apply.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the show. It makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Hello, Chad. How was your first non football weekend in six months, brother?

[Chad Millman]

It was, it was wild. My wife and I went down on Thursday to Philly. As you know, we took the train down from Connecticut, got in right in time to have dinner with our older son who's at Drexel and is a senior and went to a great restaurant, went back to the hotel, woke up the next morning, left early, went down to dc, My wife, came back to Connecticut, I went to DC and met my younger son and we went to see the Wizards Lakers game and it was awesome. Like, you know, we really just wanted to see LeBron before in case he was retiring this year. And this was a good opportunity to do it. They were up by 40 early in the third quarter. The Lakers were. LeBron was jumping out of the gym like he was 18 years old. Luca had a triple double in the first half. Well, it was even for a 40 point bloat. It was freaking wild. And Sunday was the weirdest day. You know, I'm working on this book, but I feel like I'm in decent shape and I've got a little transition moment right now. I watched movies for part of the day. I watched like two. I watched Wolf of Wall street last night. Like I didn't know what to do with myself. Awesome. I'll say.

[Simon Hunter]

It's a great day. I went to San Diego, got away for the weekend. Yeah, living the good life. I usually go to Florida and meet up with the boys, but a lot of the pros I know were like, dude, it's kind of cold in Florida, let's do San Diego instead. So last minute, went to San Diego, went to pb. If you don't know that is Pacific beach. Hung out.

[Chad Millman]

Did you surf?

[Simon Hunter]

Nope. Save that for Jersey. I did not bring a wetsuit with me to Cali. But no, it's just those people are so spoiled. Going From New Jersey, 8 degrees to people are like bundled up there. I was walking around, a T shirt and shorts. It was just so nice to feel the sun. But yeah, quick trip in and out three Days and yeah, right back to work.

[Chad Millman]

The most surprising thing to me, we're going to get into this with our guest and talk about the game. But something shocked me before we came on the air. You went surfing in New Jersey today?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we had a big storm come through. If people don't realize we, we didn't get hit up here in the north, but North Carolina got absolutely hit by a snowstorm and it basically blew off the sea. And those waves, they do go from down the south up to the north. And yeah, we had some big waves up here in Jersey. So I went out and yeah, Chad was shocked to know that a wetsuit could keep you warm.

[Chad Millman]

But it's warm enough like in, in 5 inch thick.

[Simon Hunter]

It's, it's good enough. It, it really is incredible. And yeah, I told him I, I ate it. So I had a rough go of it. Obviously I'm an old man, not like the old days where basically if I go out there, I, I have to catch my breath for about 20 minutes before I can catch a wave because it's, it's that rough just getting out there. That's how big the waves are right now. So yeah, it's, it's, I don't want to say dangerous, but I told Chad I almost died. So I basically 8:1 and just paddle right back. And I just basically did. I'm too old for this kind of moment and paddled back in. The waves were too big for me so. Wasted my time driving down there. But never, never a bad day. You can get in the water, dude.

[Chad Millman]

You'Re gonna have so many more of those moments. I cannot tell you.

[Simon Hunter]

They happen. They have been too regular now. It's kind of depressing.

[Chad Millman]

I had one of those moments where on Friday night the game ends at 9:30, 10 o', clock, whatever it is. And I'm going back to my hotel because I'm leaving super early the next morning on Saturday and my kid takes the, the, what is the Metro or Metro, I can't remember what it's called in D.C. back out to College park, you know, because he goes to Maryland, quick 20, 25 minute ride. He gets back at 10 or 10:30, whatever it is. And he was going out that night. I'm like settling in, couldn't be more comfortable. And he's just getting raring to go. I'm like, I can't do that. I haven't been, I couldn't do that when I was 20.

[Simon Hunter]

And so you haven't been able to do that in a long time. My friend.

[Chad Millman]

No, it's when I. It's when I got to use my pre alcohol. Which we'll get to. This is our Tuesday super bowl week preview episode and we do have another very special guest, which we will get to in a minute. But there's been more big news this week and it's all related to the Super Bowl. I don't know if you were surprised by this, but the gm, the Vikings fired their gm, Koesi Adolfo Mensah. And you know, on the surface it looked like it was completely reactive almost to Sam Darnold leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Right. Like a team that has so many similarities to the Vikings and it, it made many people, including the gm, like look back and say, God, could that have been us? Would we have been better off keeping Sam Darnold? Justin Jefferson was quoted in USA Today this week saying, you know, you do look at that and wonder what if. But it seems like it wasn't just the QB Mass like, seems he might not have been very popular in the organization. Allegedly. Per story on ESPN.com, brian Flores was sort of waiting to get some more clarity on the off season before he decided if he was going to stay or go. And then that ESPN story pointed this out, which I didn't even realize because you think about the Vikings as sort of being a successful organization. They've gotten less production out of this GM's four drafts, 172 total starts from players drafted. That's less than all but one NFL team. The average NFL team has gotten 368 starts from players drafted over that period. I don't know if you saw that at all. Was that surprising to you? I was a little bit surprised by it until I dug it felt reactive to the super bowl until I dug a little bit deeper.

[John Middelkoff]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm most surprised. I thought you're going a different way. I thought you're gonna go with the big news of Madison Beer and Herbert breaking up. But I like that.

[Chad Millman]

Well, you could tell because he wasn't smiling in any pictures together. So you knew that was going to happen.

[Simon Hunter]

But no, for this, it's. It had. They can say it was much of the reasons, but it seems like Koc said we got to keep Darnold and he said we're going with JJ and if that is true, to me as an owner, you're. That's fireable. You've set our franchise back now potentially three to four years, while the other franchise that got the quarterback is now in the Super Bowl. So, yeah, they can put up a bunch of reasons, but I think we're both human enough to know the egos in this business. That. That just seems like the most logical thing, right? If. If Sam Darnold loses last week, maybe he keeps his job, but as soon as he won that game, I really did. I was waiting for this to happen. We said it on Sunday night, who was the biggest loser, who we felt bad for? It was like, I feel bad for the Vikings because they had that guy in the building. The guy. It's so hard to find. He. And he. He was on another team, the supernal. So, yeah, pretty shocking, you know, made a great hire in Flores and made a great hire in koc. So I don't know. I guess. I guess they need to do it. So, yeah, for. For all the. The news going on, I guess that was probably the biggest, right? But, yeah, it's. It's one that's not gonna move the needle too much for me because it's just the. The next guy. I don't know. It's. How much power is this man gonna have and is gonna be able to correct the mistake that is nine. J.J. mcCarthy.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that's it. Like, how do you. How do you fix that? The other coaching news. Clint Kubiak expected to sign as the Raiders head coach.

[Simon Hunter]

Love it.

[Chad Millman]

As soon as the super bowl is over, he'll get to coach Fernando Mendoza, whose victory tour continues to be as charming as the entire Indiana season. There's going to be a lot of coaching talk after the Super Bowl. I do want to get into the game with our very special guest because he's got a lot of thoughts on what's going on. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe like this video while you were at it. Also subscribe to Sharper Square. Not the pods. Spotify wherever you get your pods. Bring in our guest, our Volume brother, former NFL personnel man with the Philadelphia Eagles, host of the very popular football podcast three and out, which you can hear on the Volume podcast network and watch on Netflix. He can talk for hours about football all by himself, which I want to ask him about, because the only other person I know who can do that is our boss, Colin Cowherd. He will answer all of our questions about the super bowl matchup and so much more. Please welcome John Midkoff. Incredibly hydrated John Midkoff.

[John Middelkoff]

Chad, It's a. It's an honor. I. When I got the text, I'm like, damn, I'm getting invited to the big leagues now, so. Been following and listening to you for a long, long time. So fired up. Fired up the. The gambling world. You know, as a. As a guy that used to sneak in to Cash Creek Casino, I grew up close to. Close to Sacramento in Davis, California. And we had this Indian casino. And they had black back then. You could play like, dollar blackjack. I bet you couldn't go in now, and there'd be anything under $25 a hand. But I remember my high school buddies would go there, like 16, 17 years old. You know, you're supposed to be 18, but you'd steal like 20 bucks from your parents and be like, I'm gonna turn this thing into 500. And you'd be out like three hands. You'd have no money and be like, what am I gonna do? I just drove out here an hour. But I got the. I got the bug early. And then obviously sports gambling. Been dabbling since college. So excited.

[Chad Millman]

Well, we're glad to have you. We're thrilled you're on. To talk about this matchup especially. I had a question for both you and Simon to start off, which is this line has basically settled at four and a half right now, and that is off of the Drake May news about his shoulder and the limited practice and then the missing practice. My first question about on the field personnel situational stuff for you, John, is the line not moving to me is an indication that it doesn't really matter whether he practiced last week or not. But from your point of view, how much do you think the conversations around this injury really matter?

[John Middelkoff]

Well, we've had some quarterback injuries, starting with Stafford, who was like his back shot. And then all of a sudden, the guy won the MVP. Then, like, I live in a 49er household and, oh, Sam Darnold's oblique. You cannot play with an oblique. I remember I'm a Fresno State guy. I think Derek Carr got that injury, couldn't throw. I'm like, they're screwed. And then he was like, making throw after throw. And even Kyle's like, yeah, with torture. All kicks in. He's completely fine. So I'm hesitant to think this as much. You never know. I mean, it is football. I mean, injuries do impact players, but until I see the guy not being able to function, I'm gonna. I'm gonna expect Drake May as normal.

[Chad Millman]

Simon. Four and a half, it stayed steady. It looked like it might hit five for a minute. And it's kind of just locked in at four and a half. To me, what that's Saying is basically, wise guys know he's fine, wise guys know they're being cautious, wise guys know he's going to play. Is that kind of what you're hearing at this point?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, there was never a doubt he wasn't going to play. It was just, what's the injury tolerance here? To me, it's the NFL. Everyone's going to get surgery. I mean, you saw Josh Allen walking with that boot not even a couple days ago, right?

[Chad Millman]

He.

[Simon Hunter]

He got surgery. As soon as he's there, everyone knew he was playing with something wrong in his foot. So I'm hoping someone in the media does the ultimate test of tossing him something and see if he can roach above his head and catch it to see how hard that shoulder is. But, no, every. Everything I've seen, it's like he's. He's fine. So to me, if he is truly injured and it is something, he gets surgery in the. After season, they say afterwards, you're like, well, he was playing with a torn. Torn whatever in his shoulder. Whatever it was. Serious injury after the fact could happen. But as we're talking about leaks, I've heard nothing leaking out, that it's injured and that everyone in the building saying, he's fine. And the number to me, though, again, we can dive. We're going to dive so much into the number. This is a number that I don't think they can move, Chad. I think they've kind of backed themselves into position at this point, the sports books, because they've taken so much Seahawks money. If they do move it off an injury like this, say they did move it to 6, double the amount of Seahawks money. The public would feel even more confident about their early bet, and they would come and bet even more because they're saying, hey, look, we were right on my early bet. Now you're seeing that he might be hurt. That's why the numbers moving. So they're kind of stuck, in my opinion. I don't think they can move the number at this point because they're already so dug in on the Patriots, right? They. They desperately need the Patriots and every Katrain better. I know they're on the Patriots simply because of that. They're like, well, the house always wins. I'm gonna build the house. And it's like the Super Bowl. You can't think that way. The books, the. The house does not always claim if this is a shootout, if this goes over the spread, one of the matter, they'll get destroyed on TDs and everything like that. Chad so to me, the, the conversation about the shoulder isn't that much. But it was last week where everyone, because he didn't practice, like you said, that was really alarm bells going. I think as, as the more news has come out from the Patriots side, it's like, listen, it's not that bad. He's going to play in this game. He'll be fine. And we won't know until, you know, it's, it's game time if that's the truth or not, right? If he, if they're dropping back chat, he's not throwing deep, that's going to be a telltale sign.

[John Middelkoff]

What's the amount of money bet on the Super Bowl? You know, because last year set a record, right?

[Chad Millman]

And I'm, I mean, the estimates this year, they're saying from the AGA, legally, $1.7 billion. Now, don't forget there's prediction markets that will skewer that. And it's not apples to apples, because prediction market do it based on volume of trades, not, you know, handle of bets. And, you know, I could bet $50 on one side and $50 on the other side, and that's $100 in volume, but it's one person betting, right? So it's a different, it's different metrics. And then think about what's happening globally. Like this morning, a buddy of mine had me on a text chain with his son who's in college, and, and he's in Europe right now, and he went to a sports somewhere and he was able to parlay, which we can't do this in the United States. He was able to parlay like Super Bowl MVP and winning team. And so he was able to get these crazy odds. So who even knows what the total handle is going to be in Europe, but suffice it to say, it's going to be well over a couple billion dollars. It's insanity.

[John Middelkoff]

That's all.

[Chad Millman]

Legally. I mean, look, it is awesome. It obviously speaks to. Over the past seven years now, almost eight years since legalization of how much sports betting has become ubiquitous within culture and how much the conversation has changed about it, some people would argue that it's too much, but the numbers never lie, right? The numbers are telling you that even with all the backlash against the betting scandals, against how operators sometimes treat customers about predatory marketing habits, whatever the case may be, the numbers keep going up every single year. So there's a huge delta between what people have an opinion about and how people are actually acting. And believe you me, this will be a Massive conversation in the off season on this show. There's so much to unpack in this industry about it right now.

[Simon Hunter]

But just top off what my point about the super bowl is, don't get too caught up in the spread. Because even last year, the number one biggest bet that sportsbook had was Saquon Barkley. Anytime touchdown.

[Chad Millman]

Exactly.

[Simon Hunter]

He did not score. Saquon Barkley, number two biggest prop was Saquon Barkley over yards that went under. So as much as they do care about the spread, I keep telling my contrarian friends, I'm like, guys, you can't just blindly bet aside here because you're trying to fade the public. They. It just is not that big of a markup to them. If it's. It's a small fish in a big pond. The super bowl is very unique compared to every other sports week.

[John Middelkoff]

Totally trauma. Bet millions of dollars on Saquon to score a touchdown last year.

[Simon Hunter]

Hundreds, hundreds.

[Chad Millman]

Hundreds. John. Last year.

[John Middelkoff]

Oh, you're talking the aggregate, the total amount.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

I bet you one guy did that. A million. There's always that one guy.

[John Middelkoff]

Yeah, I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying. Yeah, yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Last year, Saquon Barkley. Props. I remember talking to a bookmaker in New Orleans and he's like, we're not even thinking about this side. All of our liabilities right now are Saquon Barkley.

[John Middelkoff]

Props.

[Chad Millman]

After that it was Patrick Mahomes prop. After that it was Travis Kelsey. Props. It. The side had nothing to do with it. It's, you know, it's just an interesting way to look at it now. But you had a really interesting conversation with Colin the other day talking about Sam Darnold. And if we're talking about the Super Bowl, I don't think there's a more important player here. It's the, the, the Seahawks. Success or failure will rest on how he performs. And on the show there was a stat. I think Colin mentioned it. Since Darnold started six games for Carolina late in 2022, he's the winningest QB in the NFL, ahead of my homes. Who's played in the next three, last three Super Bowls four and two at Carolina. Was Darnold 10 in San Francisco, 14 wins in Minnesota, 16 in Seattle. Explain how you see him as becoming a smarter player as he's evolved from the sort of I'm seeing ghosts days in New York.

[John Middelkoff]

Well, I, I actually thought that game against the Rams, some of his best plays like we had seen in the playoffs. C.J. stroud. For example, who they don't run. It's not apples to apples, the same offense, but they do run a lot of boot. Get them on the move, you can be a hero. You know, the Kyle Shanahan boot action. If that guy, the end or the linebacker on the outside doesn't bite and just goes at the quarterback, that play is doa, right? And that you can get in trouble. It's. You turn around and the guy's right in your face. And sometimes quarterbacks freak and they like jump and they throw. I mean, C.J. stroud was doing that and Darnold, like hit the ground a couple times and just took the sack. He had three sacks, I think, for 25 yard loss. So he's averaging like eight yards of sack a lot. That was smart because he didn't turn the ball over. And at one point in time this year, right. I don't know if he turned the ball over. He definitely didn't that last game against the 49ers. So, like through 16 games, he had what led the league and turnovers and 14 picks and a bunch of fumbles. I think six. So it's like if he plays in this Kubiak Shanahan offense, just under control with how their defense is playing. And he has the capability, right? He's got a big arm and he's mobile, and not mobile like Lamar Jackson, but can scramble to throw, which is, to me, the most valuable thing you can do in the NFL right now. Because if the play isn't there, can you scramble to keep a play alive and then make a play? It's. I mean, Caleb hung his hat on that this year, so he's doing that. And if he doesn't turn the ball over, like, they will not lose. Like, to me, the only way the Patriots win this game is like, you'd probably need maybe a pick six or maybe a pick and a fumble. Like some weird things to happen from him. If he plays an efficient game like he did against the Rams, it wasn't just out dueling, you know, outdoor. They basically play the same game. They're both awesome, right? Throwing for 346 yards. I think Sam was. I forget the number was Stafford. He didn't turn the ball over. Like, and in these games, and who knows, maybe the Rams game turns out to be closer and more decisive. Like in the second half, a little more until both sides than this game plays out. But if it does, a lot of Super Bowls, all of a sudden you get a little tight, it's a little tighter. And closer than you think. You know, a major turnover we've seen in the playoffs. They flip a game. You know, when I was in radio, we used to be around. We had the A's when I was in the Bay Area. And you know, the numbers, guys always like, momentum doesn't matter. And at bat in October for Johannes Cespedus is no different than a bat in the middle of June. It's like, I don't know, I'm at. You feel it, you know, the momentum in football, this, the sideline, like you turn them over. Like the Patriots, they've kind of lived off that this year of just. They're a team that like the one thing with Seattle, like they do got a bunch of sweet players. And this is why I, I actually hammered them this year because they were like plus 500 to win the division. It's like, guys, The Rams went 10, 7 as well last year. And while the 49ers aren't going to be as disastrous as they were the previous year, The Seattle went 10 and 72 like. And if Darnold is just solid, their defense is going to be better. Seems going to be pretty good. And they've had like down the stretch of the year, right. Their offense wasn't as explosive and he had two weird games against the Rams. But for the most part I do wonder if we just talk about the evolution like the jets things are relevant now, of course, but his, his evolution in building off the couple games to end the season last year and then the Rams experience this year, how could he not just have a little more confidence of like, I don't need to force it. I got these guys. He's got a defensive head coach. His, the Kubia Shanahans, they aren't blood related. They might as well be cousins, right? I mean they are in relation to the offense. They all know it like the back of their hand. And this offense is essentially, if it's going well and their defenses are built, which Seattle's is, we're going to have less than 30 attempts, so. And in those 30 attempts, half of them are going to be layup throws. I mean throws that you and me could, could make if we weren't getting pressured or whatever. They're going to be NFL as easy as it gets. And then there's going to be 10 to 20% where you're going to need to make a play. And that's where it can be. You know, probably throw some picks. Sam can throw some picks. If you make the right play in explosive plays. Which he did against the Rams will beat anybody. That's why Shanahan's won all these games. The, the packers have won a bunch of games. It is tailor made for the quarterback. Then if you get a talented guy, which Sam is extremely physically gifted, so if you do have explosive plays down the field, he's not going to have problems hitting those which he's hitting. So it's like that game he played against the Rams was really, really high level, you know, and coming off the game where he kind of Jimmy Garoppoloed it against the 49ers, what he had 12 completions for a buck 20. Look at, they had no problem playing that way either. And that's what's scary about a team like Seattle. They could beat you by 20 points with him completing 15 balls more with.

[Chad Millman]

John Middlekoff in a sec. But first, a quick word from Z Biotics. Only one game left this football season. And Matt, I know you'll be having a great time watching the big game with your friends and family, making bets, pouring plenty of drinks the Wisconsin way. And before we get to our new sponsor, we've had to choose between a great night of football or a great next day. But that was before we tried Pre alcohol zebiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. Invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this product. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Isn't that right Matt?

[John Middelkoff]

That's right. I have a number of friends and family over this weekend. Pre alcohol, it's always on the menu.

[Chad Millman]

Before we start serving drinks. Comes in this fancy package, pop it open. Inside we've got these little airplane bottles, shoot it down. About an hour before I start drinking.

[John Middelkoff]

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[Chad Millman]

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[John Middelkoff]

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[Chad Millman]

You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good right?

[John Middelkoff]

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[Chad Millman]

What have you seen, say, even over the last four weeks, where Sam Darnold has been creating for has been creating fewer turnovers for his team than he was prior in a very weird stretch where it seemed like he was throwing the ball into coverage and turning it over all the time. How much of that is Kubiak adjusting the game plan from what you've seen? How much of that is Darnold making smarter plays and pulling himself back from taking risky throws? Where's the balance here? Because there's clearly been a distinction. And I know for me, as I'm thinking about betting this game, I'm thinking about Darnold being more of what he's done the past four weeks. You know, we had Evan Abrams on the show and he pointed out that Darnold has the fourth highest QB rating of anybody in playoff history right now. So like going into this super bowl, what has been the difference? Is it the game plan? Is it how he's managing the game himself?

[John Middelkoff]

I do wonder if that, I mean, that second Rams game was also disaster for him.

[Chad Millman]

Yes, right.

[John Middelkoff]

He had a couple picks. They were in shambles. And then once that punt return happened, it did lighten the mood. And this is we talk about momentum on their sideline a little bit. Like it gave him life and he kind of looked like a different player. And I've always been a big believer. I don't care what you do in life, whether you're playing pro sports or whether you're doing what we do or whether you're selling insurance for younger people. Confidence is a very powerful thing. Like you can lose it, you feel like you're never going to get it back, and when you got it, you feel like it ain't ever going to leave. And he had that Final drive. And that has. He's parlayed that into playing at a really, really high level. And that final drive was big time. Like, if that final drive to win that game on Thursday night had been Mahomes or Josh Allen and Lamar would have been like, see all time great right here. This. That's what they do. But it was Sam. It was like, yeah, but he played a crappy game. You know, it's kind of weird. And. And he has to fight that, right? Like, every quarterback that's not, you know, no doubt about it. First ballot, hall of Famer, like, once you're in that. To me, that kind of category of, like, guy six to, like, 12, 14, you know, the Purdies, the Dax, the Goffs. The narrative can come back either way on them at any moment. Like, Josh, okay, played a bad game against the. The Broncos, right? Well, it turns out he had a broken foot, and it was like, first really bad game in the playoff. What do you want to do, bench him?

[Chad Millman]

Like, what were we even talking about? Right?

[John Middelkoff]

I. I was a huge Peyton Manning fan. He had a lot of bad games. So I think confidence is really big. And I mean, JSN is just an elite player now. I think the one question is going to be. They're pretty dependent on just, you know, they kind of had some. They just had multiple running backs. Now Charbonnet's out. They're pretty dependent on Kenneth Walker, who has looked exceptional, I think. Was it McDonald or Kubiak maybe with John Schneider? Said that he's, like, really stepped it up. Like, he. He does look like playing the guy that I remember at Michigan State that got. What's his name, a contract extension before he blew it. Mel Tucker. Yeah, Mel Tucker. You know, Kenneth Walker looked like Walter Payton that year, so. And he's shown signs. Now, granted, a couple of them are against the 49ers, whose defense is not great. But even last week, I thought the stats weren't reflective to his impact. So to me, it always helps to have a running back in the. In the Kubiak system, because they will just dump it down, throw it to him a lot, and obviously the tight ends as well. But you got a wide receiver that. I mean, JSN made a couple catches in that game that. The one out of bounds in the back of the end zone where he leaped. It was like, is that Michael Jordan? I mean, yeah, because I had someone text me, like, you know, he's a. He likes the NFL, but he's more casual. And he's like, how Does. This was after the game Darnold had against the Niners when he threw for 120 yards. Like, I feel like I watched Sam Donald, he throws for less than 200 yards at JSN's, like, shattering records here. How's this? How's that up? I'm like, well, some of it was early in the season. They. They banked a bunch of yards, but, like, at any moment, he can have Puka, like, lines, which he literally just did. Him and Puka were, I mean, I don't know, two of the best players on that field, whatever. How many days ago now. So I. I think confidence is a huge thing. And he's just. Even the last two, I. I felt like I was on an island. Last year, the Lions game, he was bad, right? He was. He was atrocious. Kevin o' Connell was not good in that playoff game. It's like, you got to help this guy out a little bit. He kept calling passes, you know, Kevin O' Connell is much more. McVeigh is really not Kyle's guy. He feels much more like andy Reid's guy. McVeigh would throw it 50 times a game, every game if he could. He wants to throw. Which, listen, we all have. Our. Kevin o' Connell's a lot like that, too. Andy Reid would throw it 50, 60 times a game, every single game if he could, where Kyle Shanahan would run it 50 or 60 times. Right. Like most defensive coaches. And I think Sam got put in a rough spot in that playoff game, and I think that. So it felt like two games was like, I think Kevin o' Connell's getting a little bit of a pass, and you've seen him this year. He could turn over the ball. I mean, that's. He's a little bit of a gunslinger. I mean, that's kind of the way he plays. He's not. I don't even. He's not Alex Smith like, he. But he doesn't have that physical skill set. Like, he has an explosive arm, and he's made enough plays now the last couple years where he knows it works.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I'm right there with you, John. Where I held last year against Sam.

[John Middelkoff]

Darn.

[Simon Hunter]

I was one of those people where. That Lions game, that Rams game, it just. It stuck in everyone's mind because he played so well. And then the biggest games, he didn't. That last game against the Rams, though, that again, I'd bet him. I bet on them as a team. I said, chad, I couldn't believe that we bet on the Seahawks. For a different reason. Yeah, Sam Darnold saved us. He had the game of all games against that Rams team. And you know, I really look at this team just like the Eagles last year where Sam just like hurts last year. He can lose this game for them. Right. If he makes these mistakes like you said, he will lose it if he plays. What you just said just sound football, very patient. Take what it even gives them. I just can't see the cells of the game. They just feel like such a more complete team. And I think of the art of war. Right. Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. That's what this game's going to be.

[John Middelkoff]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

You got two guys on both sidelines, you know, variable as well. He is going to hopefully let Sam don't make the mistake. And that's when the momentum will flip. Which is what happened that Broncos game. The Patriots were dead. The quarterback made the mistake that all the momentum had flipped in that exact point. So I would love to hear you just talk about variable right now because we're getting a lot of love Seattle Vrabel is the difference maker. Right. He's the reason Patriots are here where they are. A lot of Drake may love but it's, it is variable. This is a variable defense. Everything about this defense is just such a variable personality. Can you speak on him how you feel about him as a coach and you know, the confrontation is to his success?

[John Middelkoff]

Yeah, I mean I feel the biggest bet I've ever made in my gambling career on a football game was the Denver Broncos against Carolina because I, I had seen that Denver Bronco team. I'd been doing Raiders post game. So I'd seen in the super bowl years in the super bowl in that, in the super bowl relative to my income, it was probably the 07 Pats I bet against them with the Giants because I had seen that week 16 or 17 game that they ended up need that crazy pass for Randy Moss and I was like this, they match up well, 13 points. And I convinced me and my roommate we like scrounged like 1500 together and bet it all on the Giants. It was incredible. But I, I have a lot of conviction in Seattle in this game. Like, I mean a ton. Like it wouldn't shock me at all if we get one of those Super Bowls where it's like 38 to 10, just an ass kicking. But the variable Josh McDaniels combo makes me pretty nervous. I mean Sean Payton said it after on that fourth down that they went for it. That obviously looking back that he would have kicked the field goal if you would have known. Like, we got the look we wanted. But then what happened? They ran something completely different with the look. Well, while he was never a coach for Belichick, he was one of his key cogs on defense. All those super bowl championships where Belichick ran some of, like, the most famous game plans in the history of the sport. And clearly Mike, being now a coach, you know, I mean, was probably on the front lines with Bill in Romeo Cornell discussing this and implementing it with the group with Brusky. I think he looks, you know, like. Like a Jim Harbaugh or Dan Campbell. And obviously those guys are smart, too. And I think it takes away a little bit. I think Mike, when it comes to football is brilliant.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[John Middelkoff]

You know, I mean, brilliant. And you guys might know this. I. I need to look this up. There can't be in the history of the NFL a coordinator who has coordinated more offensive or defensive game plans for playoff games. And Josh McDaniels feels like this would be like his 40th game because most guys, like, become a head coach or whatever, but his. All of his work in the playoffs for how many years now, multiple runs with Tom now back with Drake, and he's not going to get a head coaching job. How many playoff games that guy going to be an OC for? So their coaching advantage with Mike and his understanding of what it takes in these massive games, like, when Sean said that, it's like. And listen, I'm all for going for it. I've said forever the movement to go for it. Every human being that's ever watched football on their couch is always screaming at the TV to go for it most of the time. But that was like when you factored in the weather. And then when I heard him say, well, Sean, you would do the same when it comes, hey, we got the look we wanted on their offense and they ran something different. That's the afc, nfc. These are the best of the best. And that's what makes me nervous. So if it wasn't. If this was just like a kind of a team out of nowhere with a coach that we didn't have as much, like, familiarity with, but I. That's what makes me hesitant to go all in on Seattle because I think the coaching advantage. Not that the Seattle's at a disadvantage because their coaching is great, too, but how good? I mean, variable from a game management standpoint, is a freaking genius. You know, I have Stucky on every week. And he was saying there was a moment in that game where he subbed and had the guy going slowly off that led the clock. I mean, he knows the rule book. That was Bill's thing, right? I know the rule book better than you. It's like, what do we all look for an accountant? The guy that knows every single loophole. Well, that's Bill and that's now Mike. And then Josh is just extremely comfortable. That clip of when Drake, like, looked at him like this is really hard. You could tell. I mean, they're playing this blizzard. And I was like, yeah, this is supposed to be. How many times is Josh down on one knee, sat there looking at Tom in that same exact spot. That is a huge, huge advantage because this team shouldn't be here based on like, it's kind of like the commanders last year. I would say the Patriots have more talent than that commander's team. But it's like, this is not your typical super bowl roster, right? I mean, this Patriot team in theory is going to be way better in a couple years, but they got the coach and they got the coaches. You know, the combo of. I know variable technically doesn't call the defense, but I would imagine during the week he's pretty heavily involved sitting there in the room. Right. So that's. I, I think they, I think he's a star, you know, just like. And I know the thing ended weird in Tennessee, didn't have a quarterback, but I watched him with some pretty good teams kick some serious. I mean, weren't they the one seat the year that Tannehill threw all those picks?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. This is a great, A great redemption story on both sides with Darnold and the, the roadmap he's traveled to get to the Super Bowl. And Vrabel, two years removed from pretty unceremoniously getting fired. It feels like the only person who didn't know what a genius Mike Vrabel is was the owner of the Tennessee Titans. Because what he's done in a year after back to back four and 13 seasons for the Patriots is brilliant work. But also it's why everyone was betting on the Patriots preseason. It wasn't because of Drake May, it was cousin Mike Vrabel. Because betters especially know you look back at that game that the Titans had against the Patriots, which was Tom Brady's last game. Vrabel was using Belichick on Belichick, right? He was calling the timeout, he was taking the penalties. He was finding all the ways to use the clock and burn it down to give them so little opportunity. He did the same thing. He's done that this year. And and he's also talk about momentum. He's taken the right momentum plays at the right time. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock BET Florida Sportsbook. The biggest Sunday of football season at this weekend. And for games like this, basic bets just don't cut it. That's why Hard Rock Bet is loaded with special props you can't find the rest of the year. Scoragami Opening Kickoff Touchback all the bets you need to make every snap matter. So if you haven't signed up with Hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been a better time. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets. A max of 50. 50 bucks? That's right. If you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet, make that $200. Plus you won't want to miss hard rock bets. 7 million dollar big game bonus party place a ten dollar big game parlay and you'll get a share of 7 million in bonus bets. Win or lose, every parlay counts. And the more you place, the bigger your share. I already built mine. Now it's your turn. And if you're in Florida or New Jersey, the Big Game energy doesn't just live in the app. Head to Hard Rock Casino for drawing giveaways and all the excitement leading up to kickoff. Big Game week is also the best dime to be a Hard Rock vip. Hard Rock Bad is rolling out the red carpet for its MVPs, private jet, five star hotel, big game tickets and more. Other VIPs will attend. Invite only watch parties with special guests, high end food and tons of exclusive merch. If you want to get in on the action, check out the status match page at Hardrock Bet Loyalty. Let them know where you play for a shot at an instant upgrade to the best signature VIP program in the industry. So download the Hard Rocket Vet app and make your first deposit today. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1-833-Playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. JOHN to your point vrabeled how he handled the Broncos game and like knew whether it was going to be a factor. Everybody was saying kick the field goal for Sean Payton on that fourth down. He's the only one who didn't say I'm going to kick the field goal. And Mike Vrabel took the points in those exact scenarios and that just shows sort of how smart and, and connected he is.

[John Middelkoff]

I, I think sometimes too, like there are certain individuals, you know, I have, let's just pick a guy. I got 18 years coaching experience and you'd say, well, Philip Rivers has none. Guys like Philip Rivers, guys like Mike Vrabel, their coaching experience was really their playing experience because they were essentially coaches on the field. You know, like listen, Peyton would not do it. He's not going to put in the hours. But if Peyton really dedicated himself, you know how good he would be at running the offense for a team and, and just running the team. Great Tom as well. Like their understanding of implementing these game plans and being around in these high leverage moments countless times in their career is just something that like it's. I was looking at Sean McVeigh, I saw Sean McVeigh got extended. So he's been in 16 playoff games as a coach. Like think how many variable games now as a coach and a player. And that's, you know, the bus on, you know, Taylor Luan's talked about this before. His advantage when he gets in front of the team is there is not a human being in that room that he can't relate to. The high paid guy, the practice squad guy, the guy Clawn to try to get off special teams. He's seen it all and he's won at the highest level. It's just he's a pretty. Probably a throwback, right? A lot of guys like Ditka and Re, you know that that was the. Used to be a lot of the coaches, right? Well, I was born in the mid-80s but like guys that had played and then they just got into it and they were really good players and like big time, the packers or the Cowboys, it happens less because these guys make so much money now. But it shows you the power that they have because the advantage they have of just seeing it. Because if you're going to get into coaching, it's not like, well, Michael Jordan can't tell you how to play. If you can become a football coach, you have to be able to communicate like, or else you're just not going to do it long. So if you get into it, you're going to be good at it. So in terms of communication and then his knowledge is just he's a stud. I mean, he's, he's an easy guy to enjoy watching.

[Chad Millman]

He's a stud. And yet we all think the Seahawks are going to dominate this game.

[John Middelkoff]

It would be pretty impressive though if, if you, if they were to win the game, be like a, his Belichickian.

[Chad Millman]

Moment when I actually feel like the, the key factors in this game are Mike Vrabel and Sam Darnold more than maybe Drake May, because what Mike Vrabel can do if Drake May is healthy and the way he's going to manage this game, I think it's going to put them in the best possible position to keep it close. So we'll see John Middelkoff three and Out. Watch it on Netflix. Listen to it on the Volume Podcast Network. Great stuff, my friend. Thanks for joining us.

[John Middelkoff]

See you guys. Take it easy.

[Chad Millman]

All right. We want to thank John Middlekop from three and out, our Volume brother for coming on the show. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast network. We want thank John Middelkoff, our Volume brother from three and out for coming on the show. We will be back on Thursday. We're going to go deeper into NFL props for the Super Bowl. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.

[John Middelkoff]

The biggest gap in sports is the difference between the winner and the loser of the Super Bowl.

[Chad Millman]

The winner, your world champion.

[John Middelkoff]

They can never take it away from you. You'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in the pile. If you're a maintenance supervisor for a commercial property, you've had to deal with everything from leaky faucets to flickering light bulbs. But nothing's worse than that ancient boiler that's lived in the building since the day it was built 50 years ago. It's enough to make anyone lose their cool. That's where Grainger comes in. With industrial grade products and dependable, fast delivery, Grainger can help with any challenge, from worn out components to everyday necessities. Call clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[Chad Millman]

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[John Middelkoff]

Think again. Anyone can bring their AT&T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal. So bring us your bill. Walk in, run in, pogo stickin' teleport. If you can ride on the back of a rollerblading yak or fly in on the wings of a majestic falcon. Any way you can Bring your AT and T or T mobile bill to.

[Chad Millman]

A Verizon store today and we'll give.

[John Middelkoff]

You a better deal on the best network based on RouteMetric's best overall mobile network performance. US second half 2025. All rights reserved. Must provide very recent postpaid consumer mobile bill in the name of the person redeeming the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply. Every Lenovo is built to Let them move. Let them put a chicken on a skateboard, please let them scale, copy and change it. Let them make a purple sky with raining soccer balls incoming. Let them launch their vision to the world. Let them make Powered by Intel Core Ultra processors, Lenovo gives creatives everything they need. Lenovo.com, let creatives create Lenovo Lenovo Are you a fraud paying American? 1 in 4 tax paying Americans has been a victim of Identity Fraud with LifeLock. If your identity is stolen, they fix it guaranteed or your money back. Last year billions in refunds were stolen. Could be from your salary, overtime or second job gone. But this year you don't need to stay a victim because this tax season fraud paying American is something no American should have to claim. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com iheart Terms apply. This is an iheart podcast.

[Chad Millman]

Guaranteed human.