Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Sharp or Square – Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff
Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Co-host: Simon Hunter
Guest: John Middlekauff (Three and Out podcast host, former NFL personnel man)
Episode Overview
This episode of "Sharp or Square" dives deeply into Super Bowl LX analysis, featuring expert insights from John Middlekauff. The conversation covers the evolving Super Bowl betting market, critical coaching decisions, the transformation and maturation of Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, and the significant impact of Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel. The tone is passionate, insider, and at times irreverent, blending betting sharpness with authentic, behind-the-scenes football talk.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Life After Football Sundays
- 02:47-07:10:
Chad and Simon open with personal stories about their first football-free weekend in months, highlighting the transitional, slightly disorienting feeling as fans head into Super Bowl week.- Memorable Moment (04:22): Simon’s storm-fueled surfing adventure in New Jersey as an aging surfer:
"Basically if I go out there, I have to catch my breath for about 20 minutes before I can catch a wave... I told Chad I almost died" —Simon Hunter [05:38]
2. Vikings GM Firing and NFL Executive Decisions
- 07:10-10:46:
Chad discusses the Vikings firing GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, connecting the move to Sam Darnold’s Super Bowl run with Seattle and missed opportunities in Minnesota. Statistics are provided on poor draft productivity.- Simon highlights the ego and reactionary nature of NFL front offices:
"If Sam Darnold loses last week, maybe he [the GM] keeps his job, but as soon as he won that game, I really did... feel bad for the Vikings because they had that guy in the building." —Simon Hunter [09:15]
3. Super Bowl Betting Market and Drake May’s Injury
-
13:05-17:00:
Chad and Simon introduce John Middlekauff, starting with the Super Bowl spread’s stability around Seahawks -4.5. They dissect the meaning of little movement despite QB Drake May’s (Patriots) shoulder injury.- Key Insight:
The market’s lack of movement signals confidence in May’s availability and health. - Notable Quote:
"Until I see the guy not being able to function, I'm gonna expect Drake May as normal." —John Middlekauff [13:50]
- Simon breaks down why sportsbooks are “stuck” at Seahawks -4.5:
"If they do move it off an injury like this... double the amount of Seahawks money. The public would feel even more confident... they’re kind of stuck." —Simon Hunter [15:04]
- Key Insight:
4. The Size and Shape of Super Bowl Betting
- 17:00-20:11:
The conversation shifts to the volume and diversity of bets, particularly props, and why understanding bookmaking risk is critical for bettors.- Chad explains:
"All of our liabilities right now are Saquon Barkley props... the side had nothing to do with it. It's just an interesting way to look at it" —Chad Millman [19:54]
5. Sam Darnold’s Transformation & Role in Super Bowl
-
20:11-26:01 and 31:19-36:39:
Detailed evaluation of Sam Darnold’s career rebirth in Seattle, and how his improved decision-making, confidence, and fit within the Kubiak-Shanahan offense are central to the Seahawks’ title hopes.- Middlekauff on Darnold’s growth:
"If he plays in this Kubiak Shanahan offense, just under control with how their defense is playing... he’s got a big arm and he’s mobile... If he doesn’t turn the ball over, they will not lose." —John Middlekauff [21:09]
- On Darnold's optimal approach:
"In this offense, if it's going well... we're going to have less than 30 attempts, half are going to be layup throws. Then there's 10-20% where you need to make a play. And that's where Sam... if you make the right play, which he did against the Rams, they'll beat anybody." —John Middlekauff [25:00]
- Discussion splits credit between game plan evolution (more runs, safe throws) and Darnold’s personal development (confidence after clutch performances, especially the key drive vs. Rams).
- Simon compares Darnold's current profile to last year’s Jalen Hurts:
"Just like Hurts last year… if he makes mistakes, he will lose it. If he plays sound football… I just can’t see the Seahawks losing." —Simon Hunter [36:39]
6. Patriots Coach Mike Vrabel: The X-Factor
-
37:22-42:11:
The panel dives into how Vrabel, with his Belichickian management, vast postseason experience, and knack for leveraging the rulebook, gives the Patriots a fighting chance, even as significant underdogs.- John Middlekauff’s praise:
"When it comes to football, [Vrabel] is brilliant... when Sean Payton said, we had the look we wanted—that’s what makes me nervous. He’s a freaking genius." —John Middlekauff [39:32]
- Notable segment:
- Vrabel and Josh McDaniels together are described as a rare coaching edge in the big game, especially with game/clock management.
- Chad and Simon recall Vrabel’s infamous “Belichickian” clock tactics vs. the Patriots to ice out Tom Brady (now being put to use for New England):
"He was calling the timeout, taking the penalties... all the ways to use the clock and burn it down. He did the same thing this year." —Chad Millman [42:11]
7. Vrabel as Coach, Leader & Sideline Genius
- 46:07-47:58:
Middlekauff emphasizes how Vrabel's unique mix of player and coach experience lets him relate to the whole roster and thrive in big moments."Their coaching experience was really their playing experience... anyone in that room, he can relate to. He's a stud. He's an easy guy to enjoy watching." —John Middlekauff [47:58]
8. Super Bowl LX: Key Matchups and Closing Thoughts
- 48:05-48:40:
The show concludes with consensus: Despite Vrabel’s edge, Seattle’s quality, depth, and Darnold’s new poise make them heavy favorites.- Chad’s summary:
"I actually feel like the key factors in this game are Mike Vrabel and Sam Darnold more than maybe Drake May, because what Mike Vrabel can do... is put them in the best possible position to keep it close." —Chad Millman [48:09]
Notable Quotes
- "If he [Darnold] doesn’t turn the ball over, they will not lose." —John Middlekauff [21:09]
- "You can lose confidence and feel like you're never going to get it back, and when you've got it, you feel like it ain’t ever going to leave." —John Middlekauff [32:28]
- "Vrabel, from a game management standpoint, is a freaking genius." —John Middlekauff [39:32]
Important Timestamps
- 03:00: Chad’s LeBron/Lakers game experience
- 13:05: Introduction of John Middlekauff; setting lines re: Drake May injury
- 15:04: Simon on why spread isn’t moving
- 19:54: Shift to prop bets as major book liability
- 21:09: Middlekauff on Darnold’s path and key to Seahawks’ success
- 25:00: Kubiak/Shanahan offensive structure and Darnold's fit
- 32:28: The importance of confidence and the mental aspect for QBs
- 36:39: Simon’s analogy to Jalen Hurts and last year’s Eagles
- 39:32: Vrabel’s immense value, creativity, and game management
- 47:58: Vrabel’s player-turned-coach credentials and communication skills
- 48:09: Chad on Vrabel and Darnold as Super Bowl’s defining factors
Podcast Tone
Smart, fast-paced, conversational, deeply analytical but always accessible. The banter is friendly with a mix of sharp betting perspective, hard-earned football experience, and a touch of nostalgia and humor.
Summary Takeaway
The path to Super Bowl LX revolves around Seattle’s Sam Darnold making the right decisions inside an offense schemes to protect him, while Mike Vrabel’s coaching genius gives New England its best hope for an upset. The betting market shows little concern about the Patriots’ QB injury, and most sharp money favors Seattle as the stronger, deeper team—unless Darnold turns back into his old, mistake-prone self under pressure.
For listeners looking to bet or just sound smart at your Super Bowl party, the keys:
- Trust the Seahawks’ structure—but don’t underestimate Vrabel’s mastery of the game’s margins.
- Props, not the spread, are where the real bookmaking sweat lies.
- In the end, this Super Bowl, like so many others, could swing on the decisions of a single player (Darnold) and a single coach (Vrabel).