The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts / The Volume)

Episode: Sharp or Square - SUPER BOWL LX BETTING PREVIEW: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks & Predictions

Release Date: January 28, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of "Sharp or Square," hosted by Chad Noma and professional bettor Simon Hunter, delivers an in-depth betting preview of Super Bowl LX: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks. The duo reflects on improbable Super Bowl matchups, breaks down lines, trends, and betting strategies, and discusses key narratives, stats, and player matchups. The tone is sharp, candid, and occasionally comedic, appealing to both seasoned bettors and regular football fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bittersweet End of the NFL Season [00:46–01:46]

• Both Chad and Simon discuss the emotional toll of the season ending, how the Super Bowl is a unique event for fans and gamblers, and the loss of their regular Sunday football excuses.
• Quote: "It’s bittersweet waking up. But I’m excited to talk about Super Bowl. As always, it’s the best game of the year, the biggest game of the year…there’s never a bad matchup because…we got gambling." — Simon [01:17]

2. The “Scripted” Super Bowl Matchup & Improbable Odds [04:00–08:44]

• Chad jokes about conspiracy theories suggested by pre-season NFL promotional material, where unlikely players like Sam Darnold and Drake May were prominently displayed, hinting the Patriots/Seahawks matchup was "scripted".
• The hosts emphasize how historic these long Super Bowl odds are: Patriots (80-1), Seahawks (60-1).
• Notable that both teams overcame enormous preseason doubt due to hard divisions, unproven QBs, and coaching changes.
• Quote: “If only we had played closer attention, we would have bet a Patriot Seahawks matchup at 100 to 1. That is the longest odds for a Super Bowl matchup in 50 years.” — Chad [05:22]

3. Betting Trends & Previous Upsets [06:06–10:17]

• Simon recalls the rarity of such long-shot matchups since the early '90s, referencing previous outlier teams (e.g., 2021 Bengals).
• Both hosts emphasize taking preseason flyers on futures, particularly on teams with new QBs/coaches and cap flexibility.
• The 2026 Super Bowl breaks a decade-long trend where at least one favorite made the Super Bowl, making this matchup uniquely unpredictable.
• Quote: “Never before have two teams with preseason Super Bowl odds of more than 50-1 met in the Super Bowl in that time span.” — Chad, citing Ben Fox [06:06]

4. Betting Contest Performances & Tips [10:34–13:31]

• Chad shares contest results and notes which sides/props paid off or lost.
• Contest leaderboard is tight, ensuring a dramatic finish.
• For betting the Super Bowl: sides, totals, and player props all in play.

5. Super Bowl LX Matchup: Opening Lines & Sharp Money [13:31–18:30]

• Seattle opens as 4.5-point favorites, total at 46.
• Sharp (professional) money drove the line from 3.5 to as high as 5.
• Simon prescribes patience but is leaning Seahawks: “I am heavily leaning toward the Seahawks. I think this number is way, way off.” [16:00]
• Explains why alt-lines (-6.5 or -2.5) are good strategies for both favorites and underdogs in the Super Bowl due to the statistical rarity of the game landing close to the spread.

6. First Quarter Under: A Simon ‘Says’ Special [13:58, 15:56]

• Simon’s favorite Super Bowl bet: First Quarter Under. Historically, nerves and cautious play keep scoring low.
• Current first quarter under available at 7.5, though he prefers higher numbers (10+).
• Quote: “Simon says: always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl.” — Simon [14:06]

7. Narrative & Analytical Breakdown – Patriots vs Seahawks [25:09–32:34]

• Key questions:
  • Can you trust either young QB (Darnold/May)?
  • Can the Patriots compete given their soft playoff path and lack of elite weapons?
  • Seahawks defense has historic numbers against the run and forced opponents into negative expected first downs.
  • Darnold’s decline has been offset by Seattle's defense; Patriots’ magical run is partially opponent-fueled.
• Quote: “The Seahawks defense is just so much better than anything they [the Patriots] faced…” — Chad [26:35]

8. Matchup X-Factors, Coaching, and Recent Form [27:27–32:34]

• Simon advises not to overemphasize regular season stats; the Super Bowl is a “different season.”
• Patriots’ O-line is a liability; last offense they faced as good as Seattle was Buffalo (who scored 35).
• Strength of Seattle's coaching (McDonald), offensive creativity (Kubiak), and playmakers (JSN) highlighted.
• Possible for Patriots defense to keep it close, but the host consensus is Seahawks have distinct advantages.

9. Prop Bets, Trends, and “Getting Weird” [30:49–41:08]

• Simon and Chad share prop ideas:
  • First score safety (80-1/100-1).
  • Defensive touchdown (“These things happen in the Super Bowl more often…” — Simon [31:09])
  • Special Teams MVP flyer: Rasheed Shaheed
  • Kenneth Walker over 20.5 receiving yards
  • Player-specific props, e.g. JSN touchdowns, Darnold passing TDs.
• Chad: “...if there’s going to be a long shot, I feel like special teams has been a factor for the Seahawks all season long.” [42:04]

10. Why the Seahawks Are the Smart Bet (According to Simon) [32:34–41:08]

• Sharp money immediately on Seattle at opening lines.
• Seattle’s offensive firepower, coaching, and momentum sets them apart.
• Patriots feel “two years early”—a team that lucked their way through a favorable playoff road, but now faces a different caliber of opponent.
• Quote: “...this feels like the type of game that can just be an absolute blowout. Patriots get rolled because...as good as their defense has been, this is going to be by far the best offense they’ve played...” — Simon [32:36]

11. The Coaching Edge — Mike Vrabel Concerns [43:10–45:36]

• Chad’s betting reluctance centers on respect for Patriots coach Mike Vrabel’s historic performance as an underdog and elite game management.
• Simon counters that Vrabel “has taken this broken down car as far as it can go,” and the Seahawks are simply at another level.

12. Super Bowl Futures 2027: Early Long Shots [50:32–54:54]

• Listener question on value of futures for next season:
  • Simon’s Long Shots: Browns 130-1 (if Deshaun Watson is healthy), Chiefs 15-1, Buccaneers 40-1.
  • Dismisses teams like Saints, Giants, Titans, and Dolphins for lack of a strong coach/QB combo.
• Quote: “If they do promote Jim Schwartz with that defense and they just have a top-15 quarterback, that’s all they need…” — Simon, on Browns [52:34]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on using football as an excuse: “It is the greatest get out of anything card or leave something early card that exists…” [01:48]
• Simon on betting the underdog: “If you just blindly bet the underdog in the Super Bowl since 2004, you are 15-7 against the spread…” [20:04]
• Simon’s Seahawks take: “It just feels like such an overwhelmingly bad spot for them [the Patriots]...this Seahawks team just feels so much better.” [44:26]
• On JSN mismatch: “They don’t have a true speedster that can stay with JSN...just another mismatch for the Seahawks team.” — Simon [35:40]
• Chad’s confession as a bettor: “If you don’t know by now, Simon, that I need constant, over the top affirmation about what I’m saying and my choices, then you don’t even know me anymore.” [13:58]
• Simon’s Super Bowl routine: “Simon says: always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl…” [14:06]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Super Bowl Odds Conversation/Scripting: [04:00–08:44]
• Betting Market & Line Movement: [13:31–18:30]
• First Quarter Under Seminole ‘Simon Says’: [14:06–15:56]
• Seahawks vs. Patriots Narrative & Analytics: [25:09–32:34]
• Prop Bets Strategy: [41:08–43:10]
• Coaching/Mike Vrabel Factor: [43:10–45:36]
• Super Bowl Futures for Next Year: [50:32–54:54]

Final Takeaways

• The hosts see Seahawks -4.5 as a poor line, heavily favoring Seattle and implying potential blowout risk.
• First quarter under remains the sharp play for Super Bowl betting.
• Prop market offers multiple fun angles: safeties, defensive TDs, special teamers for MVP.
• Conservative game plans, weather, and team narratives were debated, but analytics and sharp money point firmly towards Seattle.
• An underappreciated variable: Mike Vrabel’s underdog record and game management prowess.
• For futures, Simon likes the Browns and Bucs as long shots, and sees surprising value on the Chiefs.

Overall: This episode is essential listening for any bettor or fan prepping for Super Bowl LX—packed with actionable advice, candid debate, and insight into the psychology and art of betting the big game.