The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Betting Recap & Reaction
Date: February 11, 2026
Host: Chad Millman
Co-host: Simon Hunter
Episode Overview
This Super Bowl recap episode of "Sharp or Square" delivers a thorough debrief of Super Bowl LX from a betting perspective. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive deep into their winning bets, discuss why their predictions were so on point, break down key lessons from the game, share notable stats, and react to memorable moments—including triumphs and near-miss heartbreaks. They also welcome the Sharper Square contest winner, Kingston Chen, who shares his process and insights as a listener-turned-champion.
Main Discussion Points & Insights
1. Super Bowl LX: Betting Success — Process and Predictions
- Hosts predicted a Seahawks blowout over the Patriots, bucking the trend of picking underdogs and staying confident despite sharp money moving late on New England.
- Their edge: In-depth analysis of matchup problems for the Patriots, trust in the Seattle defense, and skepticism about Drake May’s readiness for the big moment.
- Emotional ride: Despite a dominant win, both remain fixated on "the ones that got away," underscoring the razor-thin margin between epic celebration and frustration.
Quote:
"We loved Seattle from the beginning. We loved Seattle Alts from the beginning. We loved it. Props tied to the Seattle narrative of dominating and New England having to come back." — Chad Millman (01:16)
Key Segment Timestamps:
- Seahawks prediction rationale: [04:39 – 05:10]
- Betting contest wrap-up and results: [06:45 – 08:55]
- Play-by-play on contest picks and post-game emotions: [08:03 – 09:28]
2. Dealing with Online Blowback and Fan Interactions
- Simon describes going onto social media to "troll" Patriots fans after the win, a rare move for him.
- He admits the risk: If the Patriots had won big, it would have backfired publicly.
- The pair poke fun at fan bases—with love and playful ribbing for Patriots and Philly fans.
Quote:
"If the Patriots would have blown them out by 20, would have looked like an idiot. I knew there was no world, no world that would happen." — Simon Hunter (03:14)
Key Segment:
- Fun with fans and social media: [02:43 – 04:39]
3. Best Bets: What Hit and What Missed
- Winning Contest Picks:
- Seattle -4.5 (covered)
- Under 45.5 (hit)
- Ramondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards (hit)
- Drake May over 19.5 completions (hit)
- Patriots +3.5 1H (missed; only loss)
- Season-long Contest Record: 60-50 (55%)
- Biggest Paydays: Simon leveraged alt-spreads and prop ladders (Seattle -3.5/-6.5/-9.5/etc.) for major profits, narrowly missing higher payouts due to a late Patriots score and a holding penalty.
Quote:
"Our contest picks were Seattle minus four and a half cashed, the under 45 and a half cashed… we finished four and one in the Super Bowl. Our total contest record... 55%, basically. You tell me as a professional better you can go 55% in the season. You're taking that every time." — Chad Millman (08:05)
Quote:
"I loaded up on the Seahawks, but… my line of demarcation for break even on all of those bets was I think 10. If they won by 10, I was at least making money on those bets. And then it escalated from there..." — Chad Millman (22:11)
Key Segment:
- Breakdown of bets and sweat-worthy moments: [08:05 – 09:28]; [21:28 – 24:49]
4. Defensive Masterclass & Quarterback Play
- Consistent theme: Seahawks defense dominated; Drake May looked overmatched.
- Sam Darnold, often doubted, delivered key throws but "stayed out of trouble" thanks to conservative, smart play calling.
- Injuries and coaching decisions further doomed New England’s comeback chances.
Quote:
"Drake May, who played terrible, he had the best throws of the game, no doubt." — Simon Hunter (16:09)
Quote:
"We just couldn't find a reason to back the Patriots where me and Chad, we want to bet the dogs. ... That should always be alarms to people. We're so heavy into a favorite when we're such heavy dog betters." — Simon Hunter (17:38)
Key Segment:
- Defense/QB discussion and coaching breakdown: [15:22 – 20:43]
5. Notable Stats & Insights (with Evan Abrams, Brandon Anderson)
- Evan Abrams brought two sharp stats:
- Teams with exceptionally tough regular-season schedules perform well in Super Bowls.
- Teams entering Super Bowl having won nine straight and covered four straight: historically 4-0 both straight up and ATS after dominating in the playoffs.
- First Quarter Unders: Simon’s staple, now 18-7-2 since 2000 in Super Bowls.
Quote:
"Since 2000 in the Super Bowl, first quarter unders now 18, 7, and 2... every year people, you can bedside. You can do all this hard work... put all your money into this bet every year because every year it's a winner." — Simon Hunter (10:10)
Key Segment:
- Abrams stats and prop lessons: [11:09 – 12:26]; [10:03 – 10:52]
6. Memorable Moments & Bad Beats
- Chad and guest Matt Mitchell both lament near-legendary wins that "could have been":
- Chad missed massive payouts due to a late holding penalty and garbage-time TD.
- Matt found himself a "tortured soul" after missing Seattle by exactly 12 or 22 (both would have netted 100-1) thanks to late game swings.
- Hosts ruminate on how bettors remember heartbreaks more than wins.
Quote:
"If they won by 10, I was at least making money on those bets...they ended up winning by 16 so I ended up getting the 13.5 as well. To your point about like what you remember, you know, they were up 29, 7. … If the Patriots don't get that garbage touchdown, I'm having maybe the best weekend I’ve ever had as a bettor." — Chad Millman (22:11)
Quote:
"That experience of being like, I feel like I'm being lifted above towards heaven. And then the God damned Patriots are like, oh, now we're pulling out all the stops..." — Matt Mitchell (33:19)
Key Segment:
- Near misses and memorable heartbreaks: [22:11 – 24:49]; [32:12 – 34:58]
7. Contest Winner Spotlight: Kingston Chen
- Contest Winner: Kingston Chen of New Jersey; went 5-0 in the final week.
- Process: Relied on listening to Chad and Simon, not personal models or in-depth stats.
- Strategy: Focused on props and totals rather than sides—embracing show insights but picking his own spots.
Quote:
"A lot of the credit has to go to the Sharpen Square podcast. ... So a lot of my insight and rationale behind those picks come from you guys." — Kingston Chen (39:12)
Key Segment:
- Contest winner interview and wisdom: [38:59 – 42:56]
Notable Quotes (with Timestamps & Attribution)
-
"We loved Seattle from the beginning. ...the most beautiful football we've seen in decades. We kind of nailed it right from the beginning."
— Chad Millman (01:16) -
"Yeah, I'll never try to go up, fans, just because I get it. We're all irrational and emotional, but my God, were the Patriots fans loud and obnoxious."
— Simon Hunter (02:43) -
"If the Patriots would have blown them out by 20 would have looked like an idiot. I knew there was no world, no world that would happen."
— Simon Hunter (03:14) -
"Since 2000, the year 2000 in the Super Bowl, first quarter unders now 18, 7 and 2."
— Simon Hunter (10:10) -
"Teams that have won nine straight and covered four straight entering a Super Bowl… 4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread. If you think Seattle’s dominant, that’s the stat you want to hear."
— Evan Abrams (11:28) -
"Drake May, who played terrible, he had the best throws of the game, no doubt."
— Simon Hunter (16:09) -
"He tried to make some turnovers in the Super Bowl. He really did."
— Chad Millman (21:24) -
"If the Patriots don't get that garbage touchdown, I'm having maybe the best weekend I've ever had as a bettor in my entire life."
— Chad Millman (22:11) -
"That experience of being like, I feel like I'm being lifted above towards heaven. And then the God damned Patriots are like, oh, now we're pulling out all the stops."
— Matt Mitchell (33:19) -
"A lot of the credit has to go to the Sharpen Square podcast. ... So a lot of my insight and rationale behind those picks come from you guys."
— Kingston Chen (39:12)
Recap: Biggest Takeaways
- Sticking to a strong, well-reasoned process works—even if public money or sharp action moves the line late.
- Super Bowl betting can come down to inches and seconds—from garbage-time TDs to called-back runs—often separating a big payday from “what could have been.”
- Props, alt lines, and unique stats (like first quarter under, or strength of schedule trends) remain fruitful hunting grounds for bettors.
- Coaching matters—a team choosing to “not lose” instead of trying to win can doom underdogs, especially against dominant defenses.
- Contest listeners can ride along, learn, and win—even without deep research—all by absorbing sharp podcast insights and picking their spots reflectively.
- Hosts and audience remember the bad beats just as much, if not more, than the wins.
Episode Reference Timeline
- [01:16] – Seahawks prediction
- [03:14] – Social media and Patriots ribbing
- [08:05] – Contest picks and season stats
- [10:10] – First quarter unders Super Bowl trend
- [11:28] – Evan Abrams’ historic trends and stats
- [15:22] – Defensive and QB in-game analysis
- [17:38] – Picking favorites vs. dogs rationale
- [21:24] – Sam Darnold’s mistake avoidance
- [22:11] – Alt line sweat and memorable bad beats
- [33:19] – Matt Mitchell’s near miss on exact differential bet
- [38:59] – Contest winner Kingston Chen's appearance
Tone and Style
Informal, enthusiastic, occasionally salty (“scumbags of the earth” as friendly banter), mixing deep stats with storytelling and humor, true to the “wise guy square” ethos. The hosts balance humility (sharing their own self-doubt and bad beats) with sharp, tactical post-mortems and betting process wisdom.
Conclusion
This “Sharper Square” episode is a masterclass in sharp betting process, six-figure swings, and the emotional highs and lows of big-game gambling. By dissecting their wins, near-misses, and analysis edge, Chad and Simon serve up a podcast that’s equal parts actionable takeaway and highly entertaining binge—leaving listeners both smarter and deeply empathetic to the pain and joy of betting’s finest margins.