The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Betting Trends with Evan Abrams

Date: January 30, 2026
Host(s): Chad Millman (A), Simon Hunter (B)
Guest: Evan Abrams, Director of Research & Media, Action Network (C)

Episode Theme/Purpose

This special Super Bowl episode of "Sharper Square" breaks down the key betting trends, narrative angles, and actionable insights for Super Bowl LX. Host Chad Millman, professional bettor Simon Hunter, and renowned betting researcher Evan Abrams cover everything from Hall of Fame voting controversies and head coach drama to in-depth Super Bowl data. The episode aims to help listeners become "sharp" bettors by understanding what's meaningful (and what isn’t) in betting trends and prop bets for the big game.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Hall of Fame Voting Fiasco

• Belichick Snubbed:

  • Chad and Simon discuss the surprising and controversial news that Bill Belichick was not inducted into the Hall of Fame on first ballot.
  • Chad (02:12): “That’s so fucking stupid... the guy’s got eight Super Bowls... he changed the way people think about situational football... how fucking dumb, Simon.”
  • Simon (04:07): “You knew there was a possibility... he wasn’t the best with the media... The cheating stuff... only the Patriots... that’s your reasoning for not voting them in, you’re bitter about it.”

• Voter Pettiness in Sports:

  • Discussion about pointed sportswriter votes affecting not just current candidates (Belichick) but those lined up in the future.
  • Both hosts agree the NFL must clean up its vetting and voting process, as the current black mark diminishes the Hall’s significance.
  • Simon (06:57): “The world is very petty. It does not not get any less petty when you head to the NFL.”

2. NFL Coaching Carousel & Cleveland Browns Drama

• Buffalo, Cleveland, New England Updates:
  • Joe Brady and Todd Monken are new head coaches for the Bills and Browns, respectively.
  • Chad is bewildered at the Browns’ process, describing it as organizational incompetence and a downgrade in coaching.
  • Chad (07:51): "The only thing working in that building was the defense... so what do they do? They hire a mediocre offensive coordinator... If I’m the Ravens, I’m like, yeah, it’s one less team we gotta worry about.”

3. Super Bowl LX – Market Moves and Injury Rumors

• Drake May Injury Speculation (Patriots QB):

  • Rumors swirl about May’s limited practice due to a vague shoulder injury.
  • Pros were leaning Patriots, but the uncertainty has swung money toward Seattle and the under on total points.
  • Simon (11:07): “Professional money has come in once again on the under... down to 45.5. Most pros are like me, leaning towards yonder and Seattle.”

• Sharps vs. Public Betting Behavior:

  • Professionals quietly back Seahawks amid uncertainty, but nobody is making dramatic moves yet.
  • Chad describes how the line has moved from -3.5 to -4.5/-5 for Seattle as rumors firm up.
  • Simon (13:20): “Even guys confident on the Seahawks are not telling me to bankroll them heavily... just taking that position now 'cause you might get a better number than later on.”

4. Trends, Data, and How to Use Them

• Evaluating Betting Trends:

  • Chad presses Evan: which trends matter, and how do we separate signal from noise?
  • Evan (18:52): “Personally, I am the best storyteller. I can really push you any direction you want to go... The more on-field trends... have more substance than some of the others.”
  • On-field, contextualized trends (e.g., defense vs. young QBs) matter most, whereas meta trends (e.g., historical spread records) can be misleading without context.

• Simon (22:14): “Trends and stats, Chad, they’re literally no different... It’s an easier way for the general public to comprehend... if I already like a side and multiple trends lean to that side, that’s gonna send off alarm bells.”

5. Actionable Super Bowl Trends (Evan Abrams)

5.1 Underdog/Favorite Historical Insights

• Since Super Bowl XXX, underdogs of 4.5+ points are 12-2-2 ATS, but outright wins are rarer—underdogs often cover but don’t necessarily win.
  • Evan (23:06): “You go back 30 years... 16 games that have closed 4.5 or more. The underdog is 12-2-2 ATS. But the underdogs only won seven games outright...”

5.2 Cover/No Cover in the Conference Championships

• Since 1970, teams that failed to cover the Conference Championship are just 4-10 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl (this year: Patriots didn’t cover, Seattle did).
  • Evan (26:41): “It’s probably a little bit of a predictive element... team that didn't cover the conference championship, maybe not playing as well...”

5.3 Strength of Schedule

• Only 11 of 120 SB teams faced a harder strength of schedule than the Seahawks. Those 11: 8-3 in the Super Bowl.
  • Evan (32:25): “Only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams had a harder strength of schedule than the Seahawks... those teams went 8 and 3 in the Super Bowl.”

5.4 Defense vs. Young QBs (Seattle DC Mike Macdonald)

• In the past two seasons, Macdonald’s defense is 1-9 SU vs. QBs under 25, with 12 INTs and 30 sacks in those games; 8 straight losses for the young QBs.
  • Evan (49:34): “With the Seahawks, Mike Macdonald... has faced 10 QBs under 25... the inexperienced QB is 1-9 straight up... 12 INTs, 30 sacks.”

5.5 Streaks and “Hot Teams” Entering the Super Bowl

• Only four other teams entered a SB with 9+ straight wins and 4+ covers; they went 4-0 SU/ATS, and all won convincingly.
  • Evan (47:54): “They’ve won nine straight. They’ve covered four straight... those teams were 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the Super Bowl.”

5.6 Seahawks and Patriots Super Bowl Odds Context

• Opening season odds (Patriots 80-1, Seahawks 60-1) less meaningful now, as both teams evolved—don't over-index preseason market perceptions.

6. Actionable Bets, Angles, and Props

6.1 Super Bowl MVP (Quotes & Analysis)

• Evan:

  • Warns against Rashid Shaheed for MVP (overvalued, too many indirect paths).
  • JSN (Seattle WR) at 5-1 for MVP is the second-shortest WR price in recent history.
  • May’s MVP odds are short relative to spread; Darnold at +125 is a better value if backing Seattle.
  • Evan (39:38): “Patriots are +4.5 but Drake May is just +240 MVP... only three QBs have been listed below 3-1 as dogs that big... Darnold and Najigba are better value.”

• Simon (41:49): “It’s a QB league... the hardest part with these bets, it’s been tough for D players or WRs to win it... Darnold just has the narrative if the Seahawks win.”

6.2 Alt-lines and Spread Strategy

• Simon: Advocates for betting Seattle at alternative lines (e.g., -6.5) or 1-6 point win margin for more value instead of laying juice on -4.5.

• Simon (25:02): “If you’re betting the Seahawks, you’re either betting on a blowout or a close game... I just, I like betting the outlines like Chad said.”

6.3 Notable Prop Bets & Early Action (Evan)

• Drake May Over 29.5 Rush Yards: Now moved to 38.5; great CLV, but may be out of reach now.
• Stefon Diggs Under 18.5 Longest Reception: Predicts Diggs will be a short-yardage target.
• Seattle First Half & Full Game Parlay: Sees value in Seahawks to start fast (+130, +140), against their recent trend of slow first halves.
• First Quarter Under (7.5 or 9.5): 58-60% hit rate in recent decades. Both Simon and Evan like this early under due to Super Bowl nerves and slow starts.
  • Evan (54:05): “Took first quarter under 9.5... first quarter unders in Super Bowl something like 58-60% last decade or two.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad on Hall of Fame writers (05:33):
  “You see it with baseball too, where guys like Derek Jeter won’t be unanimous... some holier-than-thou, precious douchebag asshole who decides, ‘I’m the steward of the Hall’... so fucking dumb.”

• Simon on trends (22:14):
  “When you give out stats, you’re doing the exact same thing... if multiple trends lean to that side, that’s gonna send off alarm bells.”

• Evan on "Level One" Trends (19:02):
  “Like, the Seahawks haven’t allowed a hundred-yard rusher in 25 games. Those are the stats to me you hold in level one. All the other stuff gets mixed in below.”

• Chad on the Seahawks’ rookie OL (33:33):
  “One of my favorite things... Gray Zable and Leonard Williams on the bench... the rookie points out a tendency, the veteran executes and gets a sack. That’s in-game communication you want to see.”

• Evan (32:25):
  “Only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams had a harder strength of schedule than the Seahawks. Those teams went 8-3 in the Super Bowl.”

• Simon on Darnold's confidence (31:02):
  “Sam Darnold just seems like he is very comfortable in this offense... that gives me a ton of confidence.”

Important Timestamps

• Hall of Fame Discussion: 02:06 – 06:57
• Browns/Coaching Moves: 07:34 – 09:24
• Sharp Calls & Market Moves: 10:08 – 13:20
• Super Bowl Trends Meta Talk: 18:20 – 22:20
• ATS Super Bowl Trends: 23:06 – 24:34
• Conference Title Cover Trends: 26:23 – 27:44
• Strength of Schedule Stat: 32:21 – 32:45
• QBs under 25 vs. Macdonald Defense: 49:34 – 50:28
• MVP Odds/Prop Discussion: 39:38 – 43:41
• First Quarter/First Half Bets: 54:05 – 54:34

Overall Tone

The show was energetic, irreverent, and highly opinionated, in line with Colin Cowherd’s "The Herd" brand but filtered through hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter’s sharp-witted, no-nonsense betting expertise. They, along with Evan Abrams, blend nerdy trend analysis, humorous storytelling, and blunt debate.

Takeaways for Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• Don’t blindly trust meta ATS trends; focus on on-field matchups, strength of schedule, and how teams’ recent forms translate.
• Seattle’s defense vs. a young quarterback profile is a significant edge.
• The market has adjusted quickly around Drake May’s rumored injury—wait for clarity before making big bets.
• Alternative lines and razor-sharp prop bets may offer better value than conventional sides/totals.
• If you want watercooler stats for your Super Bowl party, dig into Evan Abrams' Super Bowl 60 betting primer.

For deeper research, subscribe to Sharper Square, check Action Network primers, and revisit this episode next week for prop-specific angles!