The Herd with Colin Cowherd: Sharp or Square – Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots

Episode Date: February 6, 2026

Host: Shad Noman & Chad Millman

Guest: Brandon Anderson (Action Network)

Episode Overview

This Super Bowl-focused episode of Sharp or Square dives deep into the wild world of Super Bowl prop bets and longshot strategies. Hosts Shad Noman and Chad Millman are joined by professional bettor Simon Hunter and special guest, prop-betting savant Brandon Anderson from Action Network. With a relatively quiet lead-up to the big game between the Seahawks and Patriots, the trio analyzes betting trends, escalator (ladder) bets, and creative props—especially those involving defensive scores and player milestones. The tone is part analytical, part playful, with an emphasis on having fun and thinking outside the box for Super Bowl betting.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: A Quiet Super Bowl Week

• Lack of buzz: Shad notes the subdued Super Bowl week—little controversy, a stable line, and the NFL news cycle overtaken by NBA trade deadlines.

"It feels like a weirdly quiet super bowl week... line has stayed the same. There hasn't been a lot of, you know, super bowl opening night controversy." (Shad Noman, 00:31)

• Public excitement: Chad suggests the matchup can’t match the Mahomes hype from previous years, contributing to the lack of 'pop.'

2. Sides vs. Props: Where Do the Wise Guys Lean?

• Shift to props: Professionals, especially younger ones, are focused increasingly on props rather than classic sides or totals.

"If I know plenty of professionals below the age of 30, they don't even do sides or totals. They only do props." (Chad Millman, 04:17)

• Old guard vs new wave: Older pros still prefer sides/totals while the younger crowd embraces the variance and opportunity in props.

3. The Grind of Prop Betting

• Hard to scale: It’s tough to bet props at high volume; getting money down and building a network is a serious grind.
• Alt spreads and layering: Both Shad and his sources are layering high-variance bets like Seattle -31 (+3100).

4. Official Picks and Bets: Chad’s Choice & Brass Balls

• Seattle Alts: Chad’s best bet is Seattle -6.5 (+115)
• Brass Balls Bet: Patriots, first drive punt (-113)

"New England Patriots, first drive punt, minus 1 13. Gross. Just gross." (Shad Noman, 08:37)

Special Guest: Brandon Anderson Joins (09:29)

5. Super Bowl Script and Betting Psychology

• All-in on Seahawks: After some doubt, Brandon commits to the Seahawks, using a “choose your own adventure” approach versus full script lock-in.

"I did my last prep these last couple of days and made my final picks. I was like, yeah, yeah, no, Seattle. We're on Seattle." (Brandon Anderson, 10:55)

• Game scripting:
  • “Do you cover your bases with four or five scripts, or go all-in on one narrative?” (Brandon Anderson, 11:25)
  • The consensus: Go all-in; don’t hedge.

6. Seahawks Defense vs. Patriots Offense: The Key Matchup

• Dominant defense:

“Two units that I most believed in, Rams offense, Seahawks defense.” (Brandon Anderson, 13:22)

• Patriots offense struggles:
  • Statistically comparable to the Jets.
  • Drake May’s numbers drop dramatically vs. top-tier defenses.

“The Patriots offense has been the jets offense.” (Brandon Anderson, 15:39)

• Best Bet: Patriots under 20.5 points.
  • Seahawks held non-Rams teams under 20.5 in 13/16 games.

7. Why Are Some Pros on the Patriots?

• Underdog trends: Dogs have covered frequently in the Super Bowl era—public bias provides value on the favorite this time.

"You're fading Sam Darnold as a 4 1/2 point favorite in the Super Bowl. That's basically the basis of most guys I talk to..." (Chad Millman, 18:28)

• Public vs. pros: Despite some sharp support for the Patriots, Shad, Chad, and Brandon prefer the Seahawks.

Deep Dive: Prop Bets & Escalators

8. Building Ladder (Escalator) Bets

• Strategy: Start with 5.5, 9.5, then target bigger margins (16.5, 23.5), always ducking just below key numbers.

“Y'know, that the main number they're putting out... I like five and a half... nine and a half to get out of the ten...” (Brandon Anderson, 24:57)

• Correlated parlays: Link big win scripts (e.g., Seahawks blowout) with player performance escalators.

9. Advice for the Fun Factor

"You're having fun. That's Super Bowl... The Super Bowl is supposed to be fun. Spread out your stuff." (Simon Hunter, 26:27)

• Small stakes, big parlays: Emphasize tiny bets on big, wild longshots (“fun money”).
• Don’t just bet overs: Combine with TD props and creative parlays.

Defensive & Special Teams Props

10. Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown Bets

• Historical edge: Defensive/Special Teams TDs hit in 19 of 59 Super Bowls, 13 in the last 24 (that’s over a 50% implied probability).
• Best bet: Either team to score Def/ST TD (+265).
• Aggressive angle: Parlay with the team’s moneyline for a huge payout.

"Almost always the team that gets the defense touchdown is the winning team... build two separate parlays and I'm playing both." (Brandon Anderson, 29:13)

• Defender MVPs: Defensive players have won 10 Super Bowl MVPs (more than WRs or RBs). “Bet every defender at 15-to-1.”
  • Brandon’s longshots: Marcus Jones (150/1), DeMarcus Lawrence (150/1), Ernest Jones (200/1).

Most Fun & Creative Props

11. “Most Fun” Bet: Rashid Shahid Rushing Yards

• Gadget play magic: Take over 2.5 rushing yards—bank on a single trick play.

“We get one shot at this. In all likelihood, the entire Super Bowl. We're waiting for the one gadget.” (Brandon Anderson, 33:28)

• Look for longest rush by player: 30-to-1 on Shahid could pay off.

12. Kenneth Walker Receiving Props

• Walker’s usage as receiver is up post-Charbonnet injury.
• Over 2.5 receptions is solid; yardage escalators (30+ yards) are live.

13. Patriots Offensive Props

• Target Hunter Henry’s receiving yards (over 39.5, escalator to 50+), since Seattle concedes to tight ends.
• Narrative: If Patriots are trailing, look for Drake May over completions/passing attempts, Henry over yards.

Final Official Picks & Closing Thoughts

14. Official Contest Picks (44:00)

• Seattle -4.5 (full game)
• Seattle -4.5 (first half)
• New England +3.5 (first half)
• Under 45.5 total points
• Drake May: over 19.5 completions
• Ramandre Stevenson: under 53.5 rushing yards

“Anybody who's hearing that can see that we believe the script is going to be Seattle wins this game. Patriots are going to have to make a comeback... Not a lot of rushing attempts for Stevenson, not a lot of opportunities, and Drake May with a lot of short check down passes with Brandon Anderson just talked about.” (Shad Noman, 43:24)

15. Mindset for Super Bowl Betting

• Build YOUR script and correlate bets accordingly.
• Think wild and include defensive TDs, special teams props, big alt lines, and “fun” escalators.
• Keep bets small, and enjoy the unique betting slate only the Super Bowl provides.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Props... will always be... the Super Bowl is the holy grail. Because you can get so much money down on these props at all different books."
  (Chad Millman, 04:17)

• "I want to bet on Cooper cup throwing a pass. So I am totally on board. But I told old heads... they're like, you're a sucker, you're throwing your money away..."
  (Chad Millman, 05:18)

• "If you bet two bucks and it hits and you hit some of these parlays, sometimes you're getting back like, a thousand bucks."
  (Simon Hunter, 27:08)

• "Betting defense in the Super Bowl, but I especially like it this year."
  (Brandon Anderson, 32:36)

• "Just keep using your imagination for building these parlays. You're trying to write your own script for the game and you're putting money behind it."
  (Simon Hunter, 41:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:31: Quiet Super Bowl week discussion
• 04:17: Pros shifting from sides to props
• 09:29: Brandon Anderson joins, game script philosophy
• 13:21: Seahawks Defense and Patriots Offense matchup breakdown
• 18:28: Why some are on the Patriots—explaining sharp action and public lines
• 24:57: Ladder (escalator) bet strategies explained
• 28:42: Defensive/Special Teams TD props
• 33:28: Rashid Shahid and “most fun” prop bets
• 36:12: Kenneth Walker props (receiving)
• 38:39: Patriots’ Hunter Henry and other offensive props
• 43:24: Final five contest picks revealed
• 47:35: Closing remarks and the spirit of fun and creativity in Super Bowl betting

In Summary

This episode is stacked with actionable insights for serious bettors, plus a dose of joy and permission to go wild with prop bets and parlays—provided they keep stakes low and expectations realistic. Creative betting and correlated scripts are king, the Seahawks defense is the key, and defensive props get more love than ever. It's an episode for both sharp insights and square fun.