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Sharp or Square - SWEET 16 MARCH MADNESS Betting Preview: College Basketball Picks & Predictions
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- [00:00]
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- [02:23]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Sharp or Square presented by Hard Rod Bat. We are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention all year long. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:47]
Sophie Cunningham
Chad.
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Simon Hunter
We were talking before we came on about how there's just no upsets in college basketball and it's, I'm not gonna lie, it's tough. It's tough coming here today and we're about to talk more college basketball. But the nil, it's killed. What I loved Cinderella stories. It's like I was trying to explain to a kid George Mason and you know, all that hot hoopla and back in the day we'd always get these random teams that would make a run and it's just something's missing. College basketball right now, we need those runs again. I, I'm just, I had a fun weekend, but I'm like Matt Mitchell. I lost a ton of money, been on underdogs and it was just all favorites this past weekend.
- [03:23]
Chad Millman
Well, what's interesting is the teams we will talk about as being the underdogs that are exciting us are the Iowas. Right. And all of a sudden do teams like that, which have always been considered good, not great historical schools, are they becoming the VCUs where you've got to get excited about that kind of run to sort of capture that, that magic again? I agree with you. Like I love to see a high point make it into the Sweet 16. You'd love to see a VCU make it into this week 16. Even Utah State, which looks so good in the first round, you want to see them advanced to the sweet 16. It's hard. It's. It's really hard because now you're going to get really top notch games and top notch teams and some of the games were exciting. Look, St. John's Kansas. Great game. Right? There were like really exciting games in the first two rounds. You're getting these marquee blue bloods, but yeah, you're not getting that. That kid from the plucky school that all of a sudden for three weeks in March becomes a heroic story. It is kind of a bummer.
- [04:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And just like the difference again, teams can keep it close, but you really do notice that the athletic difference and just the next level these guys go to in the final five minutes. Right. Like these really good teams, it feels like a college Basketball, they can just flip that switch at the very end of these games and totally shut down the teams defensively and then offensively they can get any points they want. So yeah, obviously we talk all the time. Sports are never been played at a higher level than they are right now. And you can see that in college basketball. Like they're just all five guys, are long, can shoot and are good defenders. It's, it's pretty crazy how, how the sports has grown so much and got so much better. And yeah, the upsets. Unless you have a guy shooting, you know, 75, 70 from 3, it's hard for these smaller schools to compete with these big time schools. So like you said, it's still great games like that. St. John's game was great, but yeah, it's just, it's just different. It's not like it used to be. No, no. Loyalist Chicago with some old lady in the stands is like 100 years old sister Jean rooting on her team. Those days might be long gone, my friend.
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Chad Millman
You sound 100 years old back in the day. Let me tell you about what it used to be. George Mason.
- [05:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's 20 or 20 years ago.
- [05:55]
Chad Millman
It is. That is a very long time ago. But you're also seeing, and we're going to bring in our guests in a minute, but you're also seeing the difference coaching can make and you're also seeing a little bit the difference age makes. Right. Rick Pitino talked about before they went into their game against Kansas, he might never go into a high school recruit's house again. He's only looking into the transfer portal to get guys on his team who are veteran players. And you're seeing a lot of these schools are recruiting kids who have played professionally in Europe. Right. And I think that the way the game is adapting to nil and the kids who are getting a ton of money coming out of, out of high school, a lot of coaches are saying, fuck it, I'm going to adapt by getting players who are a little bit older, a little bit stronger. And I know they might develop in my program for two years and then I've got that opportunity on the back of that second year to really have developed an adult group of kids, adult group of players. And we're going to be much better than anybody else. If the goal is to win the NCAA tournament, it might not be by recruiting the five, five star all American players anymore. It's a new way to think about it strategically. To me, that's kind of interesting. Yeah.
- [07:12]
Simon Hunter
And if I'm a man that's married with a wife. I wouldn't let Rick Patino into my house either. So.
- [07:20]
Chad Millman
All right, listen, we got to get onto this Week 16. It's our Thursday episode. We've got four games tipping off tonight and another four games on Friday. We've got a lead eight Saturday elite eight Sunday, final four next weekend. Today we will cover all things betting for this week 16. We will give out another Simon says, another Brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. We muscled out small tiny profit last week because we had Wisconsin -9 and a half in the opening round. They did not cover but we did have the TCU moneyline. They were a plus 120. So add it all up. They're getting about, you know, maybe you're making 10 bucks. Once again bringing back to the show because we enjoyed him so much the first time. Our special returning guest co hosted the Big Bets on Campus podcast, college basketball betting expert Joshua Nunn, AKA Doc. Welcome back, brother.
- [08:18]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Thanks for having me on. It was a wild run in the first couple of rounds. We saw, as you had alluded to, some of the underdogs that we had liked hung in there for 35 minutes and then the ended up kind of fading in the last five minutes. Didn't see as many upsets concomitant to the landscape of college athletics where the rich get richer. And you see a lot of these mid level and low major leagues that get a lot of their talent plucked from year to year. And so I think that we'll see that become more and more sparse where it's tougher for these teams from one bid leagues to make a run. And the problem too is this year specifically we had a lot of leagues like the Southern Conference, the Ivy League CAA teams didn't send their leagues didn't send their best representation to the NCAA tournament because you had upsets during conference championship week. And so you didn't have teams that had separated themselves throughout the regular season end up winning their conference tournament. So that can happen when you have upsets during conference championship week. You're probably not going to get them here. And that just further provoked the success of the higher seeds and the favorites during the opening round.
- [09:27]
Chad Millman
Simon, you're smiling right now. I'm sure Matt Mitchell is smiling right now. As we've discussed, we are the most literate sports betting podcast in America and I just want it recognized. Duck just used in one answer. Concomitant, sparse and provoke the guy. He might as well be Dostoevsky. Just, just Talking about gambling as if it is some kind of, you know, really digging deep into the dictionary to pull out the kind of words that really you only get on a podcast like this. Well done, Doc. If there was a prize for most literate guests, we'd be giving it to you right now.
- [10:19]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Hey, we try to get people to the window, but we got to articulate these games the best we can. We call it as we see it. And you know, sports betting and gambling is. There's a lot to do with diving into the metrics, looking at the matchups, looking at the personnel, but there's an art to it as well. So let's also. Let's. We want to talk to the art and the caveat with the minutiae of what goes into all this. I think it's important to do that the best we can.
- [10:44]
Chad Millman
Now you're just showing off. Articulate caveat. What is happening here, Duck, with all the bets he gave out the other day was a little bit like us, basically, even on the day. Some really great calls. Some calls that didn't work out. You know, you had Cal Baptist, I think you had their team total under. And we had that game against Arizona was the under, but the Wisconsin team total over, but the Duke Belmont under, which was great and covered by a hook. You know, mixed bag. Mixed bag for the day. On that, we talked a little bit about the favorites. This from our best friend Evan Abrams. A remarkable run for early round favorites. On Friday. Favorites went undefeated 160 for the first time since 1992, 12 and four against the spread in the first two rounds. We've seen favorites go 39, nine straight up and over 60% against the spread to Simon's point. Fewest outright upset since 2018. Tyber the second fewest in the last 20 years. The best against the spread record for favors to start the tournament since 2008. And if you combine last year and this year entering the Sweet 16, that's 65 favorites of six points or more. Only six of those teams lost outright and they covered 63% against the closing line. I mean, I still love the tournament. I watched it on Saturday. I watched it on Sunday. I felt like there were games that I enjoyed. This does put into stark relief what a chalky tournament this has been, which is what people were expecting. So, Doc, like, what is your biggest takeaway from all of this? Heading into the sweet 16?
- [12:52]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Yeah, there was a real spirited debate on Twitter about that. And the language people were using was that the tournament was dead. I'm not here to suggest that, but I did feel that there was a lack of some Cinderella drama early on. You just didn't see as much in the way of shocking upsets. You saw a couple of teams that were able to put a little bit of a scare into some of the traditional blue blood power programs, but they did fade later on in the second half. It was interesting to see teams like Virginia. I, I bet Virginia trying to adhere to what they had really shown as far as the identity of that team and the makeup of that team during the second half of the ACC schedule and into their ACC tournament run. And Virginia just looked terrible. They couldn't defend against Wright State. The shot blockers were neutralized and ineffective. They ended up eking out a win but never threatened to cover, and defensive intensity was just not there. And then they just look like chumps. Against Tennessee in the second round. It was really surprising to see Virginia play so poorly. SMU played poorly in the first four. They just didn't make shots and couldn't stop anything. Miami of Ohio was doing very surprising that their athleticism didn't take over. And then you had a couple of fun teams that were big underdogs in Siena and Akron that were right there at the end and ended up fading down the stretch. So my takeaway is that there are just fewer and fewer teams that are capable of making deep runs. What High Point did was incredible with their style of play. They don't play a ton of great defense, but their defense rose up against Wisconsin during the last five minutes. And just a group in High Point that completely bought into what they wanted to do. They were going to play fast. They took wild threes, they didn't get deep into the shot clock to try to get the best shot. They were just looking to really get the first shot. And for them to upset Wisconsin and then take Arkansas to the brink was really, really a cool thing to see. I wish we were seeing a team like that in the sweet 16. But then really, I mean, you know, the shock of the tournament is Iowa defeating Florida and the way that that game played out. Ben McCollum in Iowa have this wild system that they play offensively where they're really void of a star outside of Bennett Sturretz. They're very unselfish with the ball. They play at the slowest pace in the country and they had built a 12 point lead against the Gators, who were more athletic, they're taller, they're better in the post. But when I was surrendered that lead and they were down with five minutes to go by multiple possessions. They were missing foul shots. Their best player was 0 for 9 from 3. It was just really stunning to see Iowa be able to hang in there against a superior team. And then they gave themselves a chance to win. And the way they executed that inbounds play with five seconds left, throwing the ball to Stern, having him dribble to the three point line, kick it out. And then the guy who transferred in from Robert Morris was able to hit that three point shot in the corner. It was remarkable. I was just really stunned that they were able. That was the biggest surprise of the tournament at this point. Seeing Florida go down early with the home environment in Tampa and the way they had come back, I thought they were going to gain firm control of that game. So I think really Iowa becomes a Cinderella team that we can. Look, I'm sorry, I know in seed only Texas is an 11 seed, but they have such a huge athletic budget. They play in the sec. Texas is not a Cinderella in my opinion. They're a team that, it's a fun story. And I mean they, they're a very talented basketball program that spends a lot of money. So I'm not considering them a Cinderella. I will consider, consider Iowa to be that. Yeah.
- [16:24]
Simon Hunter
And I would say too to people complaining about the NCAA going from watching March Madness, the NBA. I know the NBA has a problem. Like they just came out and said their revenue dropped. It's, it's. It really is. The gap is getting bigger and bigger. We're like, it's fun watching college basketball. I don't have that same type of fun watching the NBA. So I don't know what they're going to do. But there is definitely a difference where like I was literally on the edge of my seats in a couple of those college basketball games. I don't get like that with the NBA until June. So yeah, college basketball, to me it's something that's a casual sports fan is still king. I know it was a downwind like you said, but yeah, it's. It's just tough. As a gambler that likes bend dogs, it's like me, we gotta switch. I guess I think we gotta start doing the. The favorite moneyline Ron Robins. Right. Like that's, that might be the move going forward where it's like it's a cash cow that we're missing out on just because we're so adhered to betting these dogs. But I would love to know your take on just the chalk at the top. Right. We saw Duke struggle against the 16 seed. We saw them struggle against TCU. Florida got knocked out. Are there some teams are sleeping on the future market that you're like, okay, these, these top dogs aren't that great as I thought they were going to be. Is there, is there, there anyone out there that we should grab in the future market?
- [17:42]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
You know, the future market adjusted pretty quickly live as some of these teams were pulling away or falling. I do like Houston. I think the path for Houston is clear for them to advance to the Final Four. I think these guys can play with anybody on their side of the bracket. With how it looks up when you. When you look at the NCAA Tournament bracket and Houston having to potentially play in the Final Four against an East Region team team. But with Florida being out of the fold, it really opens the path for them. They're playing at home. They're not in their home gym, but they are in Houston. They're going to have such an advantage in the crowd being behind them. I think they can do some things to neutralize what Illinois likes to do. There's not going to be a lot of pace in that game. Both those teams operate very slowly. But I think Houston's defense will provide some unique challenges that Illinois hasn't seen. And then after that, looking beyond, they would play the winner of Iowa and Nebraska in the Elite Eight and Houston would be a decided favorite of at least eight or eight and a half points there. So I think Houston has a real great shot to get to the Final Four. And then once you get to the Final Four, you're really looking at two game settings where any of the four teams that advance to that point would be capable of winning the whole thing. So really, at this point, Houston, I really also think Purdue is starting to. Come on. We're starting to see some more offensive continuity. For Purdue, when they struggled down the stretch in Big Ten play, it was because the offense was not going. They weren't making shots. They were getting good looks and just not knocking them down. Trey Kaufman. Ren wasn't as effective. Some of the other post players just hadn't been clicking. But Purdue is a team that I think can continue to win games and can put a real scare into their side of the bracket, potentially defeat Arizona to get to the Final Four. So I would want to buy on Purdue as well.
- [19:26]
Chad Millman
Who do you think is the. You know, every year there's a coach that sort of comes out of this who makes the most money because they got their team right. And we just talked about McCollum at Iowa and he had come From Drake. So he got his bag and now he's proven what a good coach he is and that he's been doing this from Division 2 to Drake to Iowa. Who do you think is the coach from your point of view who has most improve their standing? And I guess we got to take Jerry McNamara out of it because he's already gone from Siena to Syracuse. So who's the guy who's going to make the most money out of this tournament?
- [20:07]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Well, it's so funny you bring that up because the minute the season ends for these teams, their coaches are getting plucked elsewhere. We saw it with Siena, we saw it with South Florida State, yet Utah State's Guy Calhoun, South Florida Hodgson went to Providence. I mean, Flynn Klayman from High Point is absolutely on the map and I won't be surprised at all if he were to get plucked somewhere else. The way that he had his team believing in their system, the way that they played was exciting and they significantly overperformed expectations. So it may not happen immediately this next coming season, but I'd say within a year and a half Flynn Klayman will have a high profile job in college basketball coaching.
- [20:48]
Chad Millman
You know, it's funny you mentioned that about High Point. I read that High Point has like a 4 million dollar nil budget for basketball plays in a nearly 200 million dollar stadium, chartered a plane for fans and administration to go to their game. High Point is one of those schools like as someone who just had a kid go through the process, he didn't apply to High Point, but it's one of those schools that has a rep is like this very wealthy enclave country club school where you get treated like a king when you are on campus. I was thinking about that this morning. Like if I'm the coach at High Point, do I want to leave? Like it seems like a really cushy gig where you can compete in a not amazingly competitive conference, continue to go to NCAA is unlike burnish a rep for a little while before you take a bag somewhere else.
- [21:47]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Yeah, it's funny, there are schools that are that way and you see some of the coaches have different sort of philosophies on that. A guy like Mark Few at Gonzaga or Randy Bennett at St. Mary's College, some of those guys stick around for 20 or 25 years before moving on. We just saw Randy Bennett sign with Arizona State. Yeah, on there. But some of these coaches are just. You kind of outgrow your pond and you've kind of maximized everything at that school that it will ever be. I don't think High Point will ever be a ton more than a potential dark horse sweet 16 candidate. And some of these coaches just want to be able to validate that they can do it at a high major or a P4 school. And so, you know, I agree that and I've always, I've often thought this privately. If it was me coaching and I was paid millions of dollars and I could do it at High Point and never have a tremendous amount of pressure. You're always going to be one or two in your league. You're going to out recruit everybody else in your league. Kind of might just stick it out there and see what happens. UNCW is a place like that as well. In the caa, you live on the beach, you're always going to get the best recruits, you're going to get some TV exposure in CAA being at the top of your league. But you find in all these mid major leagues or low major leagues that coaches will leave when, when the phone rings. And so I wouldn't be surprised if that happens with him.
- [23:10]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, high points, great Chad. But when USC calls, you go, yeah,
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Chad Millman
I know, I know. Look, I thought it was interesting that Randy Bennett just left St. Mary's to go to Arizona State. That to me felt like Arizona State, which has been doing a lot to sort of improve their athletic department reputation and they've invested a lot in Kenny Dillingham and the football program and I know their women's college basketball team is doing really well. Now they've gone out and gotten Randy Bennett. That felt like a run the Indiana Kurt Signetti playbook to me. Get a guy who's been a proven winner at a, you know, mid major school for a long time and see what he does when he has a much bigger budget and recruit like tier one high school players, go into the portal, get tier one transfers and see how quickly he can turn that team into a monster. That to me, that to me, Doug feels like a team to watch next year.
- [24:09]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
I think so. And the system that he runs is, it's similar in nature to Iowa's in the fact that St. Mary's doesn't rely on one or two star players. They have a very fluid offensive system that allows for any one of five players to, to shine at any one given day. The defensive, just the tenacity of their defense can really put the clamps on a lot of people. So Randy Bennett has a system that clearly works and it works in situations where he's not recruiting the most talented players. Arizona State, they've always said, particularly for football, it's the easiest place to recruit to. It's the hardest place to keep him eligible. So if you can get the guys in the building at Arizona State, they're going to have some talent and I agree they're going to be a program that'll certainly be on the upward trend.
- [24:59]
Chad Millman
All right, Thursday games, Texas, Purdue. Purdue is a 6 1/2 point favorite. Iowa. Nebraska. You mentioned Iowa. Nebraska is a one and a half point favorite. Arkansas, Arizona, Arizona, eight and a half. And Illinois, Houston. Houston is three and a half. Duck your best bets for Thursday's game.
- [25:21]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
I mean, I really like Purdue laying the six and a half. I think Texas is just a bit over their skis here. They were very fortunate to have defeated byu. Who was really banged up? No, Richie Saunders. The team really suffered badly offensively as a result. And their defense just had no, no real ability to accumulate any stops down the stretch. For byu, we look at Gonzaga, who Texas defeated next. Also banged up. They didn't have Bradenhoff and Braden Smith, their point guard was injured against Santa Clara in the WCC final. Well, he rarely, he didn't even play very much in this NCAA tournament and he was ineffective, largely when he was out there. Another one of their players in Asante was also hurt and ineffective. So you had Texas playing two teams that were banged up and not at full strength and now they have to go do it against Purdue. And again, I think Purdue's offense, they're so efficient, I think that they can absolutely torch Texas's defense. They'll be able to neutralize what Texas likes to do on offense, operating out of the post. For those reasons, I like Purdue to win and cover this number of six and a half.
- [26:29]
Chad Millman
All right, look, Simon, we owe the people a Simon says presented by Hard Rock bat. It's a Thursday game. Give us your pick.
- [26:41]
Simon Hunter
Duck got me fired up about Iowa and that was, that was probably the most fun I had watching a game. That Florida game was just so back and forth and Iowa just could not, they could not knock it Iowa out. And I feel like they're still just a live dog here. And you know, they've already beat Nebraska this year, so it's not like they're unfamiliar with this opponent. And plus 110. Chad knows we love those little short dogs. So it worked for us last week on tcu. I'm going to run it back this week with Iowa. Give me Iowa +110 at Hard Rock.
- [27:08]
Chad Millman
Iowa +1 10 is the Simon says presented by Hard Rock Bet. Speaking of, let's take a listen to our word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, Florida's Sportsbook. If your bracket's already busted, you're not alone. But don't worry, you can still call the next video big upset and turn your picks into payday on Hard Rock BET all tournament long. Hard Rock Bet is rolling out daily dance and boosts featuring a live profit boost and a parlay profit boost every single day. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is giving up $25 bonus bets throughout the tournament. If a team you bet to win or cover, it's a buzzer beater if you haven't joined heart Hard Rock Bet yet. Right now, new signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets max $50. That means if you would have won a hundred bucks on your bet, now it's 200. So don't sit on the bench. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today and let's get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital, LLC and all of the states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800-my reset gambling problem, call 1-800-gambling in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia.
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Sophie Cunningham
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- [32:04]
Chad Millman
that means our brass balls is Going to come from the Friday Games Doc, I just want to point out we're talking about Iowa, Nebraska, we're talking about Michigan, we're talking about Michigan State, we're talking about Illinois. The Big Ten is clearly the most dominant conference and the reason I bring that up isn't just because I went to Indiana, but you had mentioned, you know, Texas and the SEC and they get athletes. You don't see them as a Cinderella and yet you do see Iowa as a Cinderella. I was playing in the hardest conference in college basketball. I just want that pointed out. Give us your best bets for Friday. The games are St. John's Duke, Duke 6 1/2, Alabama, Michigan, Michigan 9 1/2, Michigan State, UConn UConn 2 1/2, UConn 25 to 1. That's my pick to win it all. Tennessee at Iowa State, Iowa State 4 1/2 Doc, give it to us now
- [32:59]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
this first one here that you shop around for the best numbers so you put yourself in the best situation possible to succeed. But Hard Rock has the best total on this one. Actually like St. John's and Duke under 142 and a half. I do not want to disregard a Rick Patino coach team here in the sweet 16 with plenty of time to draw up a defensive scheme that will be able to limit the effectiveness of what Duke likes to do. With Boozer out of the post, you look at Zuby and Dylan Mitchell on the block, they should be able to match up pretty well with Boozer in the paint and should make it tough for these guys to operate. St. John's really can force the issue with forcing turnovers and steals. They've got two really pesky guards in Darling and Ian Jackson and every game they force multiple steals. And so with Duke still having their point guard Caleb Foster potentially out of the fold, I really think the Johnny's can just provide some on ball pressure and just create some situations where Duke is going to struggle operating offensively. Duke has really throttled their tempo down anyway with some of their guys being out of the fold, so I don't think we're going to see a lot of pace here and Duke's transition defense is very good so you're not going to be able to run on the Blue Devils. I think we get an honest game in the half court here. We have not seen a Rick Pitino coach St. John's game go over this total yet. Since he's been at St. John's he has trended to be an undercoach in the NCAA tournament. They've throttled down their tempo in the NCAA tournament. Duke is already playing slower. I just don't think we're going to get enough possessions and enough offensive efficiency in a matchup that pits the first and the eighth most effective defenses in the country against each other. I think that we'll see a close game, a back and forth game that I think the Johnny's can hang around in in D.C. but my best bet here is under 142 and a half between St. John's and Duke. Second one I'll talk about for Friday is and this is not a play yet. I want to look at the injury reports but Tennessee plus four and a half against Iowa State if Joshua Jefferson is not in the fold he is such a force on both ends of the floor in the painted area for Iowa State and Tennessee was just able to make Virginia look like chumps on the offensive glass. Virginia was one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They have a really good rim protecting defense. Two great shot blockers that blocked 14 shots against Duke in the ACC title. Just completely ineffective against Tennessee with Nate Amen and Tennessee rebounds 45% of their missed shots on offense. So the extra possessions, second chance opportunities, put backs, all that is so important in a game with this magnitude. So if Jefferson is not able to go we won't probably see a four and a half. It'll probably tick down to three or two and a half. But he sprained his ankle pretty badly and that can take some time to get back into playing form. So this is one where I want to check the injury in the participation report diligently before tip off. But without Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State is really going to struggle with Tennessee on the glass and I think Tennessee can hang around if not win that game outright. So tbd but I really like Tennessee here.
- [36:14]
Chad Millman
Doc, you are foreshadowing what we are going to make our brass balls bet of the week.
- [36:22]
Simon Hunter
You know what it takes.
- [36:23]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
It takes brass balls.
- [36:28]
Chad Millman
The Tennessee Volunteers plus 155 versus Iowa State. We're just going out on a limb that Jefferson isn't going to play given how bad that injury was and he was, you know, scooting around in a boot the other day. So we are going with the Tennessee Volunteers. Our brass balls bet of the week presented by hard rock that plus 155 versus Iowa State. So look, we talked about Tennessee a little bit, we talked about Iowa as our Simon says, looking at the sweet 16 knowing that it has been a favorites heavy tournament so far. Is there anyone else, is there another upset minded team that you're looking at and saying huh, these guys, they got a shot.
- [37:18]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
I mean If Alabama makes 19 threes again like they did against Texas Tech, they can beat anybody. And you know you really get some compression now in the point spreads. Seven of these spreads are lined at six and a half or tighter. So these are going to be close competitive games. I wouldn't be stunned if we do see see some more upsets. Michigan State, UConn is going to be a really great game. And Izzo against Hurley, the coaching battle is going to be exquisite. We're going to really see some good defensive basketball there. Either one of those teams can win. You look at the Thursday games, I wouldn't be stunned. I wouldn't. I don't want this to happen because I'm long on Houston, but I wouldn't be stunned if Illinois were to win that game. It's a three point spread for a reason. It's saying the align I can compete. I think, I think Arkansas can do some things against Arizona. You know Arizona, they don't rely on the three point shot but they really also don't shoot a lot of threes. And if they're in a situation where they have to make some threes, it's really something that they haven't done a lot of this year in high pressure situations. So I mean if Arkansas is shooting the ball well and they're getting the fast break going with Acuff, I think they can put a scare into Arizona as well. I think all these games will be pretty tight. Really the one upset that I would be stunned if Purdue lost. I think Purdue is a much better team. I think that executional basketball they're really doing well at. I would be stunned to see Purdue lose. I really wouldn't be completely stunned to see anybody else lose. So I do have an exotic here you can find in the markets. Three plus upsets based on the seed line in the sweet 16 there's eight total games, three or more. So essentially over under two and a half, three or more upsets on the seed line to happen in the sweet 16 and that's a plus money bet. You can find that about plus 113 or plus 117 if you shop around. So I do think that that will happen. I think these games are tight. I think it'll come down to execution in the last four minutes. Foul shooting, who can make step up and make a shot. And I won't be surprised at all if we see at least three higher seeded teams win during the Thursday and Friday rounds.
- [39:25]
Chad Millman
All right, let's recap a little bit. Ducks best bet for Thursday is Purdue minus six and a half on Friday at St. John's Duke under the total the Simon says bet is going to be Iowa plus one. 10. Brass Balls is going to be Tennessee plus one 50 5. Joshua Nunn, aka Duck Big Bets on Campus Podcast thanks for joining us and being our college basketball expert once again. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube @Sharpersquare like this video? Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate Review Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [40:15]
Joshua Nunn (Duck)
Give it up. Wow. Take me to the Balkans, please.
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Sophie Cunningham
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