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Chad Moment
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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Chad Moment
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Spencer Agiar
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Chad Moment
Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock bet. We are part of the Voluum Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Moment. I am joined as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon Chad.
Simon Hunter
I can't believe it. Was that the first weekend we've ever texted about soccer in our entire lives.
Chad Moment
Crazy, right? So, yeah, me, you and Debundo, Anthony De Bundo were texting about Morocco and tying Spain. I was in this. I was in New York over the weekend. My kid had graduated from college in Philly on Friday, and then I went into the city on Saturday and me and our good friend Seth Wickersham and another good friend of ours went to see Bono interview Bruce Springsteen at the Tribeca Film Festival. But really all we were doing was trying to find bars before and after to watch World cup and then watch more World cup and then watch the Knicks. And I was in some bar watching Morocco. They went up on Spain and me, you and Dabundo started texting because holy shit, that was amazing.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was. It's. If you're a span a fan like we are of all sports and obviously of all things, betting doesn't get much better than this past weekend, right? You had the NHL finals, the NBA finals and the World Cup. And I mean, I, I know people probably, it's a little late now, but you know, as a fan of soccer, that was the biggest USA win ever. And people can say, well, they've gone further. I don't think Americans understand how big of a deal it is to beat that Paraguay team. And that's why all these international people are like, what in the world? Because Paraguay, their last 10 games, they didn't conceded more than one goal, let alone four. And the pressure that was on that USA team playing, you know, that own goal obviously helped a lot, right? It helped them relax and you could say all that, but that just felt like a game that could easily flat fell in their face, right? The, the hype, the atmosphere, it was all built so high. I just can't get over it. USA winning that 4:1 and yeah, something that loves soccer. The. I don't know if you've any watching of the COVID that's on Fox Sports. Um, it's Terry Henry and this guy named Ibrahimovic and yeah, yeah, yeah, I love Ibrahimovic. He's like one of my favorite players ever. Actually. I could sing a song, Chad, if you want a song. Rare chance of me actually singing English song.
Chad Moment
Oh, my goodness, please.
Simon Hunter
Americans don't really get it. Like he's half joking and he's also being dead serious. This man truly thinks he's the greatest player ever. And he is God. And to me, he is one of the best players ever. But when he played for Man United, I went to a few games when he was actually on the team. Is when I was really into Man United, I literally would just fly from Philly. You can fly direct to man to Man United to Manchester. I'd go to a game on Saturday, be back home by Sunday. And my favorite songs, I don't know if it's age appropriate. So if you're listening with your kids, take a quick 30 second break here. But it goes 6 foot 5, hard as fuck. Gets the Reds excited. Stick city up your ass because we are Man United. We are Man United. Ibrahimovic was a great, great player. He came from Man United basically first season and got injured and that was all she wrote. But he was just an all time great player. So him on the coverage, even him and Henry again, these are the best players in the world. They were stunned after that USA game. That's why I'm trying to wrap around people how big of a deal it was. So yeah, it's. This could be as good as it gets. I hope it isn't right. Australia is the next test. It's gonna be a great game and I'm really confident our side and our squad, but that was as good as the game you could possibly have for United. So right now, as a fan of the World Cup, I'm loving it. And obviously the Knicks won and that had all the Brazilian fans in the city like that whole, the whole part of the World cup and all these international fans being here. Like I, I said I didn't feel, wasn't feeling in Philly. I felt that this past weekend, like the Ecuadorian fans taking over the city of Philadelphia. They're everywhere. It's. It's been really, really cool. And I'm, I'm just so happy they spread it out. Right? We have a month left of this. Right? So it's, it's just the beginning. You can tell how fired up I am. It's just been such a fun weekend in sports. I'm going to miss. Gonna miss basketball and hockey, but thank God we have the World Cup. Chad.
Chad Moment
Well, look, the city was on fire sometimes literally on Saturday. Kudos to Jason Timf, by the way, because we had him on the show host of Hoops Tonight, the podcast on the Volume Podcast Network. And we consistently tried to push him into taking the Spurs. You and I both decided we were on the spurs in seven for sort of this specific bet and he would not back away.
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He.
Chad Moment
He thought the Knicks could sweep this. He then moved it to Knicks in six just because I think there was a little hedging there. But he never once wavered from the Knicks and even I as someone who on this show talked about how much I hate the Knicks. I came around. Brunson is so fun to root for. Mike Brown is so fun to root for. This team is really special in terms of how they connect with people who are watching basketball and how they connected with the city of New York. I mean look, I think Bono and Springsteen was the lowlight of my day on Saturday between. It's one of those great days that you don't get anymore. Especially like when you're older and have kids where me and Seth and another good buddy of ours named Phil who is one of Seth's closest friends from high school who I've known forever. Like we got to go start drinking at like three in the afternoon. And like we were at a legendary bar in Fred Becca called Walker's. Then we went to the event, then we went to another bar, then we went to dinner, then we went to another bar to watch the game.
Simon Hunter
And.
Chad Moment
And it was just, it, you just felt light and free and like there was so much joy in the city. It was really, it's freaking remarkable. It was great. Totally.
Simon Hunter
I want to give props to New York City. Like for a city that has the most people in the world in a concentrated area, wasn't all that bad afterwards when it happened at the time I was like, oh my God, they're gonna burn that city to the ground. End up not being that terrible. The craziest part was someone posted a video of the night before. They're on the street, cars are burning. It's like a riot, all this chaos. And it was him at the next morning, 9am Little tables outside, people eating breakfast. The New York only in New York City where 12 hours later you would never know there was just a riot on the street. So yeah, just an incredible weekend.
Chad Moment
I gotta say it was probably less violence than a normal Saturday night. Honest. Honest to God. Because like everyone was so happy and joyful and focused on that it wasn't sort of dispersed violence that there normally is in New York. I thought it was amazing. It was great. And correct. Congrats to the Knicks. Congrats to the Knicks fans. I have been watching all the videos of like how joyful people are and sports is the best. Anytime you get jaded about sports, something like this happens and it's just freaking awesome. And guess what Simon. We get another chance to celebrate sports in the great state of New York. For the six time golfs most challenging tournament. The US Open is returning to the Hamptons. The US Open tees off on Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island. We're going to be covering it from every betting angle with returning guest Spencer Agiar, two time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Golf Writer of the Year, last year's winner of Research Article of the year. We've had him on before. He he is one of the smartest golf guys we've had on. Spencer from Las Vegas. How you doing, brother?
Spencer Agiar
I'm doing well, thank you. I appreciate you guys having me on again. I will say this, Simon, beautiful singing to lead into the show. I'm probably, I don't know what the odds would be on it, plus a billion to actually sing on this show. So if you guys can get me to do that, that's the big money ticket to have out there.
Chad Moment
Well, let's see if we can get you in by the end of the show. Spencer Shinnecock, gorgeous course number five in Golf Digest Golf Magazine's top 100 golf courses in the world can also make for a miserable, brutal U.S. open course. Fit is always important when you're talking about golf. It's become a really important metric for betters. What stands out in terms of the factors? What kind of play is going to be rewarded or punished?
Spencer Agiar
Yeah, you kind of mentioned at the beginning, like Shinnecock is widely regarded as one of the best championship tests that we get in this country. And I think it's a funny answer when you consider that if we look at 2018, the last time it was played here, on average on the PGA Tour, players hit about 60% of the fairways. Here you get 71% of a made fairway rate. And you hear that answer and you would think that there's going to be the straightforward setup for ease. Accuracy is going to be the number one answer to the game, which in fairness it is, but a lot of that is deeply rooted into, you just cannot miss. And we see this over and over again of where you take that 30% rate of people missing the fairway and you're essentially dead off the tee. There's this 5 inch thick fescue rough. If you are wayward, it's a 7440 yard layout, which means that if you're going to be conservative off the tee, now all of a sudden your second shot finds these secondary problems here into these fiery green complexes because you are laying back off the tee and you're not getting the most out of your first shot. So you know, for me, when I look at this venue and I'm somebody that Wishes we had more data to be able to pull from. You can pull from 2018, you can P from 2004, but the, the course is marginally different. They made the fairways a little bit wider this go around and I do wonder from a statistical perspective if that changes anything. Like if, if players like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McElroy really decide to get aggressive off the tee and kind of do this risk reward and, and see if it pays off and you know, we'll see if it does or it doesn't. But when I ran a model for this, the number one thing that I noticed is good shots are going to get bad shots get punished. And to answer your question, Chad, I don't know if there's a specific game type that is the most geared to find success. And, and for me when we are putting together mathematical equations and trying to figure out the answer, I think that's why people love this tournament so much because you can be accurate and you can find success. You can be good around the green, you can be a good putter. As long as you're good in some of those areas, you kind of have this blueprint for success success. So you know, of, of the four majors I would say and you know we'll play into the name of the show here like this is probably one of the sharper majors that you can find for betters. I, I think if you're trying to be a square better out there, the Masters, the Open Championship are probably the two that kind of yield that for whatever reason this historically and this is when I you guys mentioned at the beginning when I won best research article. What I talked about is how the data played into every single tournament and where the sharps and the squares landed for everything and where you could find more success over a five year period. And the US Open was the most sharp test of any of the majors. So I think that comes down to just overall skill and finding the right players. And you can do that at a U.S. open where you can't do that at some of these other majors as easily.
Chad Moment
What about wind? It's supposed to be nice here on the east coast, but is wind going to be an issue?
Spencer Agiar
Wind's always prevalent when you are on a coast. I was, I'm trying to figure out the best way to word this to your guys's audience. Like I think if we threw this into football terms, golf is really unique at the end of the day because in football you know who somebody's playing against. There's factors that come into play. There's game scripts that change because of the weather in golf. It's not quite as simple as that. Yes, you are playing against the field and you know who you are, but you're also playing against the course and yourself. And when you look at weather specifically for these examples, t times matter. And I think sometimes they matter too much to, to people that are running models, like I always say to people inside of my discord, like, if you're waiting on the exact tee time of a player, you're going to end up missing the movement. Like, you kind of have to be quick to act in a lot of these situations in golf. But golf, unlike a lot of these other sports, do have the chance to where you can get yourself blown off the course if you get into the wrong end of the weather. So one of the ways that I tried to combat that, or I always try to combat that, is I just have an overall weather profile in my model. There's a 10 to 20% weight that I did throw into some of those weather categories. There are going to be some players that are going to get the good end of the draw. There are some players that are going to get the bad end of the draw. But at the end of the day, two things happen. First, everybody's going to get bad weather on the coast. It's, it's, it's going to be one of those things where it's going to come and go. Two, I'm going to make enough bets to where even if you get some of them wrong, you're hoping that what you're building from a mathematical perspective is going to put you on the right end on enough of these situations. So it's going to matter. It's. I don't want to come on here and be like, don't look at the weather. The weather matters. But I also think it's so baked in to a lot of the movement that it almost becomes like a negative in the grand scheme of it.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you can test to a chad. It's been honestly dry northeast. It's. We've really needed rain and most our storms we're getting lately it's been the one hour quick hitters. It's not really prolonged rain. So I, I'm always into their range. Especially when it comes to golf. It does matter, right? Like you're talking about, it does affect the playing course. And some guys teeing off at the wrong time can affect their game totally. But just look at the odds right now to hard Rock, there's three golf players right now listed with better odds than 1401.
Chad Moment
Right.
Simon Hunter
We have Rom 1401, Rory 1101 and Scotty at 550. Is it still just Scheffler's game? We're all just, are we just going chalk here or are we, are we thinking about the other guys that are 40, like the other, you know, eight, eight other players under 40 to one occurrence? You don't like anyone. That whole group.
Spencer Agiar
I rarely give this answer of going near the top of the board in situations. I, I usually try to find value in golf and that, that comes further down the board. And I will say this, for major championships, it's, it's one of the things that you will notice there's almost a stigma attached to all these events where the general public does not believe anybody but the top names are going to win. And a lot of times that if you are going to get drift, it's going to come into that triple digit zone of a lot of those names that get pushed back 10, 20 points higher than they should be. And I think that sportsbooks condense the top of the board into kind of unbettable ranges a lot of times to where you're probably going to get the winner from there. But you get this heavily juice board where there's a ton of hold percentage that you're finding. And I kind of thought that was going to be the case at least a couple weeks ago. And it's kind of changed for me. When I built my model this go around, I, I kind of think Scotty's going to win this golf tournament. And there has been this. Scotty was 3 to 1 to win every golf tournament for almost the first three months of the year. And he's underachieved. And he's underachieved in a really weird way because from a statistical perspective, I ran things for the last 24 rounds and, and the last time I came on, I talked about how I run my model longer than most people do. I, I like to have that long term outlook. I don't want that short term stuff that's going to inflate or deflate numbers on it. But with Scotty, the stigma around him right now is that he cannot find success. He is struggling. You see him yelling at his caddy, you see him having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members, he's having outbursts on, on pretty much everybody who's getting around him. And I think that what that has done is it is inflated a price now for Scotty and When I ran the numbers, I wanted to look at the short term outlook here. And for, for Scotty over the last 24 rounds, even without any of the victories and even without some of this high end success that we expect from him, he is still far and away the number one golfer in my model. I ran seven statistical categories from various degrees of range of time. Scotty was number one and substantially number one in every single area. And I kind of go back to that last 24 rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and what we've seen from Cameron Young and some of those names and sure, like I like Fitzpatrick this week, I think that this is this prototypical sort of a course for him where he can find success. And there's a handful of names that probably make logical sense to go back. But I took the, the more bullish route on Scotty. And if you shop around, you can find this number six and a half, seven to one in some locations. And like I said, it's not something that I normally do, but I am playing the chalk here with Scotty and I and I think that it kind of goes back to the answer that I said at the very beginning that if there's no specific skill set that it's rewarding and it's just rewarding good shots. Scotty is the best player in the world at picking a target, hitting a spot and doing what he needs to do to find success. And when we don't have these 30 under par winners and the US Open is going to deliver something that's closer to even par to win this, that's kind of the Scottie Scheffler blueprint where I think he's more likely to win one of those tournaments.
Chad Moment
I love that we're talking about Scottie Scheffler underachieving when he just finished second at the Masters. Let's do a quick word from Hard Rock bet. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock bet, Florida's sportsbook, the world's biggest soccer tournament is here. Everyone is watching. National pride is on the line. Superstars chasing immortality. And for the next month, every match feels like a final. If you haven't tried Hard Rock Bet yet, there's no better time to get in the game. Hard Rock BET is the the top rated sportsbook app built to viva la Copa. And if you're ever late to kickoff, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet lets you live bet all match long from the first minute to the final whistle. Plus Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily. We're talking profit boosts, no Sweat bets, bonus bets and more. And be sure to check out no Goals, no Problem and Super Sub two promos designed to give your bets insurance all tournament long. Sign up with Hard Rock Bet today and place a $5 bet if it wins. You also score $150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra $150 to bet with. Now that's how you get this summer's party started. Download the Hard Rock Bet app today. Roll with us. Go with us. Hard Rock Bet they have and bonus bets Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play, terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1833, playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-39 with it in Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call 1-800- My reset gambling problem, call 1-800- Gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee.
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Spencer Agiar
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Chad Moment
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything Spencer, beyond the outrights, you've come on the show and given out some really thoughtful ideas about betting head to head, finishing in position markets. What are you targeting in those groups right now?
Spencer Agiar
Yeah, I don't have a ton of matchup exposures so far this week. I mean the one that I did back in, I think unfortunately the number has moved pretty heavily across the board. But I'll give it on the show for one reason because I think that there's ways to back this player and maybe fade the other one. But I took Siwoo Kim over Justin Rose. Two parts to this. The first one is Siwoo Kim. This is a player. If we're talking about underachieving and where the market is on him, I think this is a top 10 golfer in the world. And because we don't have a victory from him this season, the market doesn't necessarily treat him as that. Like he opened at 51 to win this golf tournament, which I think in fairness is a pretty good look there at 50 to 1 without that victory. And I kind of made the argument if Siwu had won once, what would his price be? You could probably chop this into like the 30 to 1 range and he's been in contention so many times to win so many of these tournaments, give him a second victory and all of a sudden now you're in like that Matthew Fitzpatrick sort of a range. And that's kind of where my model has Si Woo Kim when it comes to win equity. So I think you get the good end of Siwoo Kim there. And then Justin Rose is a name that tends to burn me in major championships sometimes. Like we saw it at the Masters, we saw it at the PGA Championship. You know, I talked about the Masters specifically being like the most square tournament where it feels like square betters kind of get the right end of some of these Justin Rose spots. You look at Justin Rose, yeah, there's a lot of upside. A matchup bet. You want safety at the end of the day. Rose has missed four of his last five cuts at the US Open. And I think it's this boomer bust profile that he presents to the mix. So when this open in that minus 120 range, I thought that was way too short. Unfortunately the market agreed and that thing is kind of ballooned up. But whether it's a fade of Rose or a backing of Siwu, I think that's something that you can look at. And then the other one I will give is a made cut bet and it's, it's a plus number here. So if you're, if you're looking for a little bit of value. Andrew Putnam to make the cut at plus 105. This is a golfer that is not going to be a household name to people, but it's a golfer that also had been just stringing together made cuts over and over again. And I had him at the PGA Championship at a very similar price and ends up making the weekend falters on Saturday and Sunday to 55th place, but cashes the ticket. We see him last week miss the cut at the RBC Canadian Open. And I think it's that classic situation of like you like to see the ball go through the hoop right before one of the biggest tournaments of the year. You don't want to have a five over round that you shoot and miss a cut. But I think in this particular situation, one, it enhanced the price here at plus 105. So you get a little bit of value because of that miscut. And then the second thing that transpired is the US Open is a really fun event because there's qualifying into this tournament and your high end names are going to get in based off of their ranking. But a lot of these other guys that are good golfers have to qualify Their way in, whether that be through the sectionals or regionals and then to the very end of this. And on the Monday before the US Open, that's when the final qualifiers are held. So Andrew Putnam went out, played 36 holes that day, does not get himself qualified yet has to go back out on Tuesday to qualify again. Plays 45 holes in those two days. And look, the number of holes is not the problem here. It's the prep into the RBC Canadian Open. So he ends up qualifying for the US Open, gets there on Tuesday night for the RBC Canadian, ends up shooting five over, bounces back on Friday, which is I think the positive to this whole thing. I just think it's a fluky miscut at the end of the day. And at +105, I thought this was an interesting price that I had closer to minus 120 for him to make it. So I mean anytime I can get 25 points of value on something like that, I'm always going to take it.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, speaking of the cut, how like what kind of advice would you give to people here that are trying to bet, you know, on Saturday after the cut, like what are you looking for on this weekend?
Spencer Agiar
For me, my favorite markets and I think we're the most winnable and the biggest edges still lie would probably be for in tournament matchups. I think in internment matchups. If you look at what happens, that's the one spot where inside of the golf market books are still slow to move. In a lot of these spots where there's over corrections and overreactions that take place, you know, there's people and this is kind of like the number one blueprint that I try to tell people that are building models or do things. It matters what's going on. But we build a model from a lot. It almost would be like in football, Simon, where if you build a model and you have it built out for this entire game and after 1/4 Patrick Mahomes, let's just say plays poorly and now all of a sudden you create a whole new model, change everything that you know about this and re weigh it. And that's a little bit of what happens in golf. And it happens really hardcore on the data building side, which is the incorrect thing to do. So you know, trust your pre tournament research. Whether you are building your own model or you're, you're listening to advice from other people or whatever it is like trust some of your takes that you had early on, trust the numbers do not overreact to one or two rounds it's such a small sample size, but if you can do that and you can trust some of your priors, I think in tournament matchups are where the value still land.
Chad Moment
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Chad Moment
I'm spending my own money on this product.
Spencer Agiar
It is lovely.
Chad Moment
Highly recommend it.
Spencer Agiar
Whether you live in the drink, in
Chad Moment
the state, in the union, like Wisconsin or anywhere else, highly recommend it.
Simon Hunter
It's these little bottles, you knock them
Chad Moment
back, you feel your best the next day.
Spencer Agiar
Couldn't recommend it more.
Chad Moment
All right, well listen, go to zebiotics.com sharpersquare to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you, when you use Sharper Square at checkout. Zebiotics is backed with 100 money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zebiotics.com sharp or square and use the code sharp or square at checkout for 15 off. Hi Spencer. We got a lot of very casual golf fans and golf betters listening. That crowd, they love a long shot. Everybody wants to get rich quick. Everybody wants to play the lottery. Spencer, what are your picks? What are your liens for anyone hunting for a big, big price? They just want to make bank for very little investment at the US Open.
Spencer Agiar
So I, I did a show with Matt Mitchell in 2023 where I came on with Wyndham Clark in this triple digit zone for the US Open and Wyndham Clark very famously won at LACC for that. I don't know if I have as strong of a lean this go around with it. If there are some names I am looking for in that triple digit zone. If you want to throw a dart at the board and kind of hope for the best. I think Kurt Kitiyama's ball striking you can get him over a hundred to one. He makes some sense. Maverick McNeely is another name that I've kind of been chasing this year. It feels like I. I had a lot of exposure to him at the Masters. I had a lot of exposure to him at the PGA Championship. Not necessarily in the outright market but in a lot of these safer markets, like whether it's a matchup or a placement bet. But I think those two names, maybe more so than most of them would be the two that resonate inside of my model where there is a profile of where you can start telling a story. They don't necessarily check all the boxes of what you would want to see. But you know, my model has them closer into like the 70 to 80 to 1 range being proper for them and you can get them in that triple digit zone. So those would be the two that I would bring to the show.
Chad Moment
Spencer, I tried as hard as I could to figure out a way to tempt you into singing something. I might have almost been distracted during the show just trying to figure that out. I couldn't get there.
Spencer Agiar
I'll tell you this. I mean, I can't promise I'm going to do it if, if I hit an outright winner. If it's Scotty Scheffler, like it may go from a billion to one to like 100 to one the next time I'm on the show. So each winner will keep like increasing.
Chad Moment
If one of your long shots cashes. We're just gonna have Matt Mitchell call you, record you singing a little ditty and we'll put it on the show.
Spencer Agiar
Perfect.
Chad Moment
That's your promise to us. Spencer Aguard. Thank you so much. Tell everyone how to sign up for your discord.
Boost Mobile Advertiser
Yeah.
Spencer Agiar
So first of all you can follow me on x @t off sports and you can go over to my website at teeoffsports Club. You know, there's a lot that I do on there but there is also that free portion of the Discord to where if you sign up for a players club membership on there, you can get inside of the Discord and get a behind the scene look at a lot of the goodies that I offer, whether it be my model that I've talked about on this show, it has the ability for people to make a copy of the model and to weigh the data themselves. That's my number one thing that I'm proud of, Chad, that I. I'm able to give back to the space is giving people the ability to build their own model, build their own numbers, and to look deeper into these tournaments because I think at the end of the day, like, we can come on here and we can, you know, quote unquote tout plays, but I think where the true value comes in is being able to originate your own prices, figure out where the value lies. And. And that's something that I'm very proud of, that you can do inside of that model. And yeah, I write a lot of articles, Chad. Like, you know, some of them have gotten me nominated and won awards, but I mean, look, I write so many articles. At the end of day, you can probably get 15 plus on the website. So some are free, some are premium. But sign up for the website. You can see a bunch of that beautiful Spencer Agar.
Chad Moment
That's our show. It's been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Don't forget, follow us on Instagram at sharp or square, all one word like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate.
Spencer Agiar
Review.
Chad Moment
Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want.
Spencer Agiar
Feedback is a gift.
Chad Moment
Until next time.
Spencer Agiar
Love you.
Chad Moment
He's gonna try to putt this thing up.
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Did you say putt?
Spencer Agiar
John Putt.
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Oh, my.
Spencer Agiar
Oh, my goodness.
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Stop.
Spencer Agiar
Have you ever seen anything close to that?
Chad Moment
Not from a professional.
Spencer Agiar
Hey, it's your ceiling vent. So I'm dripping. Could be the rain. Could be the upstairs bathroom.
Chad Moment
Yikes.
Spencer Agiar
You could hire the guy your neighbor recommended, but I'm pretty sure that's just his cousin. Do we know if he's licensed or does he just own a ladder?
Simon Hunter
Listen to your home go with thumbtack.
Spencer Agiar
Upload a photo or voice note, and
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we'll diagnose your project and match you
Spencer Agiar
with the right pro for the job.
Chad Moment
Thumbtack.
Spencer Agiar
We know homes hire the right pro today. Joy is essential, and it's also elusive. But now there's a new and exciting way to start your journey toward a more joyful existence. Joy 101. It's a new podcast hosted by me. How to copy. If you're craving it's inspiration to maximize your joy, tune into these candid uplifting and moving on air chats. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Joy101 and listen now. Joy101 with Hoda Kotb is presented by CBS. It's that time to put on your jersey and wave your flag, whoever you root for.
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Why do I watch the World Cup? That's like asking me, why do I breed?
Chad Moment
And it's beautiful.
Spencer Agiar
The guys are young and cute and fit.
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It's not just a game, it's your culture.
Spencer Agiar
I like watching it with my dad.
Chad Moment
It's a connecting force.
Spencer Agiar
From Futuro Studios, I'm Fernanda Echavarri and this is American Football, a show about soccer culture in the US and its underdog roots. Listen to American football on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Chad Moment
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Date: June 17, 2026
Guests: Chad Moment (Host), Simon Hunter (Co-host), Spencer Agiar (Guest, Fantasy Sports Writer Association Golf Writer of the Year)
This special “Sharp or Square” episode dives deep into the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, with betting strategies for both casual and serious gamblers. Chad Moment and professional bettor Simon Hunter are joined by golf betting sharp Spencer Agiar for a data-driven, high-energy preview. The episode also blends in sports fandom, stories from a wild New York weekend, and practical advice for navigating sharp/square golf betting angles.
[02:13–10:13]
“If you’re a fan of all sports and all things betting, it doesn’t get much better than this past weekend.”
(Simon Hunter, 03:30)
“USA winning that 4:1… Americans don’t understand how big of a deal it is to beat that Paraguay team.”
(Simon Hunter, 03:54)
“It was just, you just felt light and free and like there was so much joy in the city.”
(Chad Moment, 08:16)
[10:13–20:39]
“Shinnecock is widely regarded as one of the best championship tests… It’s 7,440 yards with a 5-inch thick fescue rough. You just cannot miss.”
(Spencer Agiar, 11:06)
“Of the four majors… this is probably one of the sharper majors you can find for bettors… The US Open was the most sharp test of any of the majors.”
(Spencer Agiar, 13:16)
“Golf… do have the chance to where you can get yourself blown off the course if you get into the wrong end of the weather.”
(Spencer Agiar, 14:23)
Top of the Odds Board – Is It Scheffler’s Tournament?
“Is it still just Scheffler’s game? Are we just going chalk here?”
(Simon Hunter, 16:54)
Spencer’s Model – Playing the Chalk:
“For Scottie over the last 24 rounds… he is still far and away the number one golfer in my model… I kind of think Scotty’s gonna win this golf tournament.”
(Spencer Agiar, 17:12)
[25:21–29:46]
“I think this is a top-10 golfer in the world [Si Woo Kim]… Rose has missed 4 of his last 5 cuts at the US Open.”
(Spencer Agiar, 25:43)
“Anytime I can get 25 points of value on something like that, I’m always going to take it.”
(Spencer Agiar, 28:59)
“If you can trust some of your priors, I think in tournament matchups are where value still lands.”
(Spencer Agiar, 29:55)
[32:55–35:37]
“That crowd, they love a long shot… Spencer, what are your picks for anyone hunting for a big price?”
(Chad Moment, 32:55)
“They don’t necessarily check all the boxes… but you can start telling a story.”
(Spencer Agiar, 33:54)
“If one of your longshots cashes, we’re just gonna have Matt Mitchell call you, record you singing a little ditty, and we’ll put it on the show.”
(Chad Moment, 35:37)
“Anytime you get jaded about sports, something like this happens and it’s just freaking awesome.”
(Chad Moment, 09:15)
“Only in New York City where 12 hours later you would never know there was just a riot on the street.”
(Simon Hunter, 08:26)
“The US Open was the most sharp test of any of the majors.”
(Spencer Agiar, 13:16)
“Trust your pre-tournament research… do not overreact to one or two rounds. It’s such a small sample size.”
(Spencer Agiar, 29:55)
"That's my number one thing… giving people the ability to build their own model, build their own numbers, and to look deeper into these tournaments."
(Spencer Agiar, 35:53)
Mixes smart, model-based betting talk with relatable sports fan enthusiasm, NYC anecdotes, and practical advice. Everything from the science of weather betting to the fun of rooting for a 100-1 winner.
“Feedback is a gift.”
(Spencer Agiar, 37:28)