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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Simon Hunter
Okay, have you heard about this? Last year, Degree changed the formula for their Cool Rush deodorant. The fans rebelled and wanted the old scent back and Degree listened and that doesn't happen often. They admitted they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason why it's the number one men's antiperspirant and it's back in Walmart, Target and other stores now for under $4. You can so try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local Walmart, Target and try to OG Cool Rush for yourself.
- [00:34]
Warren Shar
This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. May is Mental health Awareness Month and Talkspace, the leading virtual therapy provider, is telling everyone let's face it in therapy, by talking or texting with a supportive licensed therapist at Talkspace, you can face whatever is holding you back. Whether it's mental health symptoms, relationship drama, past trauma, bad habits, or another challenge that you need support to work through. It's easy to sign up. Just go to talkspace.com and you'll be paired with a provider, typically within 48 hours. And because you'll meet your therapist online, you don't have to take time off work or arrange childcare. You'll meet on your schedule. Plus, Talkspace is in network with most major insurers and most insured members have a $0 copay. Make your mental health a priority and start today. If you're not covered by insurance, get $80 off your first month with Talkspace. When you go to talkspace.com and enter promo code SPACE80. That's S P A C80. To match with a licensed therapist today, go to talkspace.com and Enter promo code SPACE80.
- [01:42]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:00]
Chad, how we doing dude?
- [02:02]
We got some serious football, some serious football betting to discuss. Because the NFL schedule came out last week. Lines are posted for every single single game. Team totals are posted for games like the action to get down already for week one has been insane. It's become a highlight for fans the schedule release during the sort of doldrums of the NFL off season. They've really nailed this. The NFL also offers gamblers a chance to discuss this upcoming season from a variety of of new Angles. Today we're gonna do things a little bit differently. We're doing a two part episode with a very special guest returning to the show to discuss many of those angles. One of our favorite guests with our favorite mustache. He's an NFL predictive analyst, one of the originals, a proponent of all things data, the impresario of sharp football analysis.com Mr. Warren Shar.
- [03:12]
Warren Shar
Hey, thanks for having me. Chad Simon, pleasure to be back with you guys. Always love this time of year because we get to break down the schedule and like you mentioned, lines out on all these games. Everything's super fresh. It's never going to be any fresher than it is over the past, you know, week or so. So happy to dive into it with you guys.
- [03:29]
Chad Millman
Well, listen, one of the reasons we love to have you on is because your preseason bible is a must for football fans because you go so deep on every team, every new addition. How these teams did against the spread, what they do on offense, defense, all the rest metrics we're going to get into today. You are very graciously offering listeners of the favorites the Bible, Sharp Football analysis, the preseason Bible. For $1, use code ACTION. Go to Sharp Football. That's right, Sharp Football, Sharp Dog Football.
- [04:08]
Warren Shar
It'll have a link up the top. You can go right to the purchase page, enter in the code action, drops the price from $35 down to $1. So you're not going to get a better deal than that. And I can guarantee you you're not going to find a better use today for a dollar than preordering the book for when it comes out, the beginning.
- [04:24]
Chad Millman
Of July, $1, the ROI and that dollar, God only knows. You've got to be wise, but that is going to be a huge roi. All right, NFL schedule, it's out. We're going to get to that in a second. Spring meetings happening as we speak. So many, you know, rules changes being proposed. Everyone's talking about the tush push, but there's also proposals for playoff seating structure. Simon, I'll start with you. How do you feel about a change to the seating structure and how would that impact the way you think about not just the playoffs but also how teams sort of work the regular season from a betting perspective.
- [05:10]
Bunch of different ways to come out. The main part I don't like about it is it's I feel like they're trying to take away something we all love as bettors, which is home dogs in the playoffs. Like that 8, 9 team in the playoffs at home playing against a team that's going to be much more talented, right? The five seed usually is going to be better than the four seed. You know, it's, it's taking something away from us, right? Like again, it, it rarely matters overall, right? But there's always those unique spots that there is a team that is terrible, makes in the playoffs and somehow pulls off a huge upset which we all talk about all the time. Beast Quick like that's the game that will forever stick out to any. Anyone that's a real big time better. That Seahawks is a big dog playing against a Drew Brees led team which as a better. Pretty simple, right? You're getting Drew Brees going from indoor to outdoors against a team that feels thrived on strong defense with a good run game. It was like very easy for betters to see, but the general public didn't see it that way. So those are ones that pop out to me. And you know, we saw last year with that great team down in Washington making that run. Chad. That was a team that, you know, did it all on the road. So those are things I love and I love to see happen. But I get it. I'd be pissed too if I was a really good team and I'm having to play all my road games rather than, you know, being at home. So pretty interesting shakeup. But I think that the Vikings, Detroit, I don't know. I don't like that they're. They're pro proposing and this actually might happen. But we'll see what the rule is. Chad, it's. It's a big deal for sure though.
- [06:38]
Warren, you're a pretty connected guy. Do you have thoughts on if this has a real chance at passing?
- [06:46]
Warren Shar
At first I thought it was going to have a great chance. I think now that the pressure from Goodell is going to be very strong on this two pass. But I'm not quite sure that we're going to get enough buy in yet from some of the teams in those divisions that stink, like the AFC south for example, who love to have that four seed when they get to the playoffs and would lose that four seed if they pass this rule because that team then would probably be seven seed or six seed and that's a big issue for those teams. But. But I felt like that this rule should pass because Goodell wants it to pass. I mean, as we're going to be talking about momentarily, this league is now built on making revenue and getting people to watch their games on TV so that their ratings go high so they can get new deals in the future. And this will make those Week 18 games better. But to Simon's point, from betting on those games, one of the things that we are able to do is all that insight a little bit before maybe the general public is is this coach going to rest this players week 18? Is this, how many snaps is this first team going to play? Now? If they do this, we're going to have less teams resting in week 18. I mean, there was a slide that they presented at the ownership meetings that showed that the Houston Texans went into week 18 locked into the fourth seed. But if this new system had passed, they could have finished anywhere from fourth to seventh seed last year. The LA Rams went into week 18 last year as the number three or the four seed. They also decided to rest starters. But if this had passed, they could have been anywhere from the fourth to the seventh seed. Even the Philadelphia Eagles, they were locked in as the two seed in this adjusted system. They could have fallen to the third seed with a loss. And so those three teams decided to rest starters in week 18. This new system would given them more of a desire to play guys. And so I actually think it might be like the players association that would feel the strongest, like, hey, our guys should deserve a little bit of a rest. We don't need to change this up for the NFL to get new ratings for the owners to line their pockets more, even though eventually it does trickle down to the players. So I think it's going to be fascinating. I totally disagree though, Chad, with this contingent of people who think that this is going to. Yes, it sort of makes divisions less important, but it's not going to throw everything out like this is. To me, this is not something that is going to make teams less likely to play hard. These teams in the strong divisions are still going to be playing to try to get their seating and the teams in the weak division. Do you think if a team is in first place in the AFC south and they're like, oh, well, we're not going to get a fourth place, they're still going to be playing to not play the seventh place playoff schedule. The sixth place playoff schedule. They may not be able to get the fourth place spot, but they're still going to be trying to play for a higher seed. So I don't see how this makes the teams less likely to try hard.
- [09:54]
Chad Millman
I like the idea, actually. I like having more of an opportunity in the regular season to have one more week with a full slate that offers betting windows. Right. Because the scenario that you just talked about, Simon, it's becoming less and less. We love betting the playoffs. We killed in the playoffs this year, but I don't mind having a lot more games to look at in the final weekend of the regular season. I think that's kind of fantastic, brother.
- [10:28]
I just took. We just had the Rams of the dog against the Vikings.
- [10:32]
That was amazing. And we killed it.
- [10:33]
Right? That's what I mean. So, like, that was a nice opportunity. We're going to lose the opportunity, dude. That would have been a Vikings home game. That's. I get where they're coming from. Again, all these different proposals, each one's different, right? Some of them, it only matters if a team's below.500. Some of them, they're only going to recede after their first round. Like, it's. I mean, like you said, it's. There's a lot of things being pushed today that the Tush push. Like it sounds like the Tush push is more likely to get put through than this one is because it seems like a lot of owners fucking hate the Tush push because their team can't do it. And the Eagles obviously couldn't. Couldn't be stopped. So, like Green Bay being the team to go and propose this push push ban, that makes more sense than other teams agreeing to this receding. Because it's like, I'd be bitter, too. It's an automatic play that a team has a huge advantage on. You know, I get. I get why they're trying to ban that. I just don't. Like you said, the revenue thing, that makes more sense than anything else for this, trying to change these playoff schedules.
- [11:30]
Warren, you've cornered the market on the idea of rest advantage. And when you look at the schedule now, how do you handicap the teams that have done that have gotten a rest advantage versus the teams that don't?
- [11:55]
Warren Shar
Well, rest certainly matters. There have been changes in the way that the league has divvied up the schedule this year to help increase the equity a little bit. I do think that they did a little bit of a better job this year than they have in years. Past some years, I've come on your show this time every May and pounded my hand on the table and said, this is ridiculous. They keep making it worse. I don't know where the, you know, the light at the end of the tunnel is, but things are just ripping my hair out with how terrible it is. It's still not great, but it's better than what it was last year. I'll say that it has improved a little bit. Last year there are still 101 games being played where one team has a rest advantage over an opponent, which is the identical number to what it was last year. But the haves and the have nots, it's gotten a little bit closer to even. So we're not seeing as many teams skewing to one end of the spectrum or the other. So that's a positive. We'll talk momentarily about some of the teams that got screwed the most or the most benefits. But one of the things that has changed, and the league sort of pointed this out when they were doing a little bit of analysis of the schedule and rest in the schedule, is that bye weeks have certainly become less beneficial, especially to bet on, than they had in the past. In the past, prior to 2011, we had major advantages from buy weeks and you could cover the spread 56% of the time if you were just betting on the team that was off of a buy that no longer exists because that 2011 CBA forces four mandatory days off of bye weeks. And there are teams and coaches that used to give their players one day off in a bi week and get ready for the next day. We got a big game coming up. Okay, everybody, you can go home, don't come back until, you know, the day after tomorrow. But otherwise, now they're getting all this time off. The coaches are getting out of rhythm. From a play calling perspective. I don't know about you guys from the way that you've been betting things over the last couple of years, but I certainly have ran into a couple of problems where I would be liking a team for a certain game, knowing they're coming off of a buy, thinking that that would provide a little bit more of an edge. But what ends up happening is that team shows up rusty, out of sync. Their play calling strategies are a little bit different than what they were finishing as they went into the buy. And all of a sudden I'm betting on a team that I wasn't expecting to be out there on the field. And that's happened several times and you know, I just kicked myself. Oh yeah, I remember this team's coming off of a buy. Those teams are becoming a little bit more fade material, hitting, covering the spread like 47, 48% of the time, as opposed to 56%, which is massive. So identifying Chad, the situations where rest is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important over the last several seasons, in my opinion. But there certainly are spots where teams are just league wide getting screwed with rest or getting rest advantages. Holistically, we know that short week road games are a bad thing for teams. But since 2021, so just over the last four years, a team like the San Francisco 49ers have had to play 10 such games, whereas other teams have only played two such games over the last four years. So they're. There isn't necessarily a desire to balance this stuff out at the minute level. And that's where, you know, I would like to see it be more fair. But we now know that the NFL doesn't prioritize that. What they're prioritizing is big teams playing one another in big games, which is why we have ridiculous schedule this Christmas and Thanksgiving. And they're in it for the ratings they want to get. You know, they want to be able to promote that they broke the records ratings. I even heard Mike north come out and say we want to hit 50 million viewers on the Thanksgiving night game where Dallas plays the Kansas City Chiefs, which would break all of the records. And the reason that they're looking to do that is because they want to sell standalone pay per view game on Dazn or on Tubi or God knows what other network so they then can make more money in the future. So that's what they're prioritizing. And they say as long as rest isn't too inequitable, then it's okay. But who's to define too inequitable? It's their own decision as to what's too inequitable. And that's why we need to sort of act as watchdogs and look out for the schedule and look out for the rest and just make sure that they're not when they are screwing teams like they are. And we'll discuss, we point that out so that hopefully those teams get a little bit of benefit in the future.
- [16:40]
Dan Flores
Do you say data or data? Well, at my house we say data. And for the longest time I thought paying a fortune on my monthly data plan was just normal. That was until I found out about Mint Mobile and their premium wireless plans that start at just 15 bucks a month. Say bye bye to your overpriced wireless plans. Jaw dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages, Mint Mobile is here to rescue you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. Ditch overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for $15 a month. No matter how you say it, don't overpay for it. Shop data plans it mintmobile.com favorites that's mintmobile.com favorites upfront payment of $45 for three month five gigabyte plan required. That's equivalent to $15 a month new customer offer for first three months only then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.
- [18:00]
Simon Hunter
So we all made mistakes, right? But owning up to them is the right thing to do. But but we all know Degree Cool Rush deodorant well. Last year they changed the formula and it did not go over well with the fans. Degree's whole thing. It turns up sweat and other protection when you turn up the effort. And good thing it does cuz Cool Rush fans really turned up the effort to bring back the OG formula. One guy even started online petition and degree listen they admitted they effed up and are bringing back that OG Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. It's back at Walmart, Target and other stores for under $4. There's a reason why it's been the number one men's antiperspirant for the last decade. It's the same reason why people are not happy when the recipe was changed. So listen, if you've never tried, it might be a good time to try. See what the fuss is about. Head to your local Walmart or Target and try the OG Degree Cool Rush for yourself.
- [18:50]
Warren Shar
This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. May is Mental Health Awareness Month and Talkspace, the leading virtual therapy provider, is telling everyone let's face it in therapy, by talking or texting with a supportive licensed therapist at Talkspace, you can face whatever is holding you back, whether it's mental health symptoms, relationship drama, past trauma, bad habits or another challenge that you need support to work through. It's easy to sign up. Just go to talkspace.com and you'll be paired with a provider, typically within 48 hours. And because you'll meet your therapist online, you don't have to take time off work or arrange childcare. You'll meet on your schedule. Plus, Talkspace is in network with most major insurers and most insured members have a $0 copay. Make your mental health a priority and start today. If you're not covered by Insurance, get $80 off your first month with Talkspace when you go to talkspace.com and enter promo code SPACE80. That's S P A CE80. To match with a licensed therapist today, go to talkspace.com and Enter promo code SPACE80.
- [19:50]
Dan Flores
The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network, host, writer and historian Dan Flores and brought to you by Velvet Buck. This podcast looks at a West available nowhere else. Each episode I'll be diving into some of the lesser known histories of the West. I'll then be joined in conversation by guests such as Western historian Dr. Randall Williams and best selling author and Meat Eater founder Stephen Rinella.
- [20:21]
Simon Hunter
I'll correct my kids now and then.
- [20:22]
Chad Millman
Where they'll say when cave people were here.
- [20:24]
Simon Hunter
And I'll say it seems like the.
- [20:26]
Warren Shar
Ice Age people that were here didn't have a real affinity for caves.
- [20:31]
Dan Flores
So join me starting Tuesday, May 6th where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today.
- [20:42]
Warren Shar
Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts you.
- [20:51]
Chad Millman
Brought up sort of. It used to be an autoplay and now it's becoming less and less of that to bet these teams coming off the buy. Evan did some research for us. Last season, teams with a rest advantage were actually one game under.554, 55 straight up. And then they were 13 games under.500 against the spread. That's the second worst mark against the spread since 2000 and by the way, since PASPA was repealed in 2018, 51% straight up, 48% against the spread. So that is a losing bet since 2018. Betting teams with the rest advantage. To your point, is it because they haven't been equitable? But before I actually let me ask Simon, how have you been thinking about teams coming off a buy or teams having rest advantages the last couple years?
- [21:56]
It's a bunch of ways. Like I told you, I use Warren's book as a as a major tool for what I'm doing. And that is the sense of, you know, adjusting to season win tools and different things like that. Like, you know that Eagles team last year, all the players talked about going to Brazil week one. They felt like they couldn't catch up and get like, get their heads right until their bye week, which was after week four. And you hear every player talk about that where it's like they couldn't catch their breath. It was just really intense going from your preseason trying to make the team get ready for the upcoming season to you're going to a foreign country now, you're coming back and now you're playing, you know, multiple road games. You have a home game here and there. It's, it's a lot. And the bye big helped them catch up. You look at this schedule this year, there's tons of teams having that exact scenario. Long distance travel, a lot going on and a lot to deal with when they get back. And you know, for me, I remember last year, one that really jumped out was Warren was on. It was about the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the worst deal we've ever seen any football team get last year, right? They had the most insane schedule. Saturdays, Wednesdays. I mean, I think the only day they didn't play was Tuesday. They might even have a Tuesday game. I don't even know. But it was just insane how their schedule set up. They were perfect. So we talked on here about that. Where there are certain teams we do think it'll affect and there's other teams with veteran quarterback and veteran head coaches that their leadership can balance that, right. That rest disparity. But there's other teams that it does affect. Where we just talked about a young Eagles team, they started two and two, right? They lost to a not very talented Kirk Cousins in that Atlanta team and then to a Saints team that we all know were terrible. I mean, not the Saints, Tampa Bay were pretty good, but still close game with the Saints start the season. So it just shows how early in the year these teams, they're not going to be who they are. Especially when they're traveling like they are. So, you know, jumps on the page. Chargers, Chiefs, that's a team that's going to Brazil week one, right? Like we have a lot of things people can look at Warren's book about that type of stuff where it's like those miles and that stuff does matter and can affect a lot of teams. So that's what's such a big deal to me reading Warren stuff. It's like you have to look into each team's rest disparity. Even though it's not the end all be all. It's a major tool to have on hand.
- [24:03]
Warren Shar
One thing, Chad, I, I do, I do want to throw in just some data. I know because you were mentioning Evan's. Evan Abrams. Great research. I just want to throw in some, some nuggets here real quick before we get into team discussion and other situations. Just the specifics. If you are off of a Bye week from 2002 to 2010, you are covering the spread 56% of the time. 7.6% ROI since 2017, you are covering the spread 46% of the time, minus 12.2% ROI. So a massive difference off of the buy the situations where you want to be looking. And Simon mentioned this too about the Chiefs. What I have found is that the better team usually obviously in these games is going to be favored favorites. When they have extra rest, that edge becomes amplified. Bad teams that may have extra restricted, it doesn't necessarily help them. They don't know the right strategies to use during that extra rest or to take advantage of to get to the level of the good team. So favorites tend to do a little bit better when they do have extra rest than than underdogs or than bad teams do. The other spots to think about here are the short week road games which we are going to discuss. Short week road games the last 10 years. Those teams that means like they're playing Sunday and then they play on Thursday on the road, which happens a lot. This year those teams have covered the spread just 48.3% of the time, which is minus 7.8% ROI over the last 10 years. That's a big deal. 48% cover rate can be a solid spot to bet against these teams, especially when other factors play into it. If that same team, instead of having goes on the road, instead of having short rest, they actually have a little bit extra rest in their opponent and all of a sudden they become 54.7% ROI, 54.7% cover rate, which is positive. 4.4% ROI. A couple other spots to be aware of. It only happens once this year. Three games in 10 days. That last game is absolutely brutal. It's a very low sample size. It's going to happen to the Dallas Cowboys once this year actually on Thanksgiving. Those teams, when it's, when it's happened, there's something like 2 and 9, 2 and 10 in the last like decade when they've played three games in 10 days, which hasn't happened very frequently. And then games after playing on the road Sunday or Monday night and having to come home and play an opponent that has not had to do that. 48.7% since 2013 across over 400 games. So we aren't talking about situations here that are going to scream, you know, 60%, 65% cover rate. When you talk about sample sizes that are a little bit larger. But it is meaningful when you're talking about, and Simon knows this, you know this, Chad. I don't really bet other sports but I do know that there are people out there that whether they're betting NBA rest spots or MLB rest spots or situations where team has gone on the road for all those games and then comes back home. Like there are spots and edges to be had just based upon general rest situation. So it is a key factor in the NFL. But the, the, the key is to understand when it is a factor and when it is not as big of a factor.
- [27:19]
Chad Millman
Well, what's interesting about that, and you guys have both just said this is the NFL disadvantages the marquee teams in these scenarios because they want to put the marquee teams in the highest profile slots. And that's automatically going to be impossible to navigate to get them both rest and marquee slots. The teams that we've already talked about, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, historically the Niners have gotten screwed on this. Right? Like the teams that the Eagles last year, right. Like those are the teams that we're always thinking about. So it's fascinating to me that all of a sudden you've got these insights and windows into, hey, these might be teams that even if historically we want to back them, this is a very specific spot where you might want to fade them because there could be value, especially if they're coming off some high profile games in which they might have won. So Warren, looking at the schedule, who wins, who loses when it comes to rest and spots right now, well, I'll.
- [28:29]
Warren Shar
Tell you one spot that's terrible. This team is fine from an overall rest advantage. But like just an example of how the NFL doesn't pay enough attention to this. The Cincinnati Bengals have to play on the road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And that's the third straight year that they have to play on the road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And how many times have the Ravens gone into Cincinnati to play on the road on a Thursday game? One time since 2006. So we're talking one time in the last 19 years. But Cincinnati has had to do it now three straight years in Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore nine and oh hosting Thursday night home games. Most teams are really good when they host Thursday night games. Baltimore's terrible when they go on the road on Thursday. That nine and oh team at home turns into two and seven on the road. But they get to host Cincinnati. It's unfair that they get to do that three straight years in a row. The NFL needs to, you know, right that wrong next season. But you know, you could try to make up for it like they're doing with The San Francisco 49ers rest this year. They're one of the top teams in the league after being screwed by minus 20 days or worse each of the last two seasons. We talked about them last year on your show. Minus 22 day net rest differential, I think it was. And obviously their season unraveled mainly due to injuries, but rest didn't help. But you know, it's, it's one thing to go right the wrong, you know, a couple of years later. The issue is trying to make it as balanced as possible in the moment and not have these situations happen because coaches careers are on the line, you know, a couple bad seasons. Because in some part rest is factoring into the fact that you're unable to win some of these games and all of a sudden you're out of a job. So it might help your successor when they right the wrong a couple of years from now, but it's not going to help you in the moment. The Detroit Lions are one of these teams that really stands out this season. It's ironic because they have such a brutal schedule. They have one of the most difficult schedules of opponents in the NFL. But the NFL doesn't define who you're going to play. That's all predetermined based upon where you finished last year and a rolling calendar that schedules out in advance, years in advance, what divisions you're going to play. The Lions are screwed from a strength of opponent perspective, but the NFL gave them eight games where they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games has never happened before in NFL history. This is an example of where while the league has improved their scheduling a little bit, there are still areas that are notable and that they could improve further. Never before has a team played more than six games in a season with a rest advantage over their opponent. Detroit doesn't play just seven, they play eight. On top of that, they only play one game where they're at a rest disadvantage. Thus a net of plus seven games where they have a rest advantage over their opponent. They play five different games against an opponent who's coming off a Monday night football game on a short week. And those five games, you think about it, and I've talked to some players when, when they get home on Monday night, it's actually Tuesday morning at that point in time, even if it's a home game, they're getting in Tuesday morning, they're starting their rehab. The Lions playing on a Sunday at 1pm they have all evening Sunday to rest and rehab and start watching film. They have all day Monday to rest and rehab, watch the tape from yesterday, make their adjustments, figure out their game plan and then they get Monday night to watch the opponent that they're going to play while the Lions are still rehabbing. This other team that they're playing has less time to rehab and also has less time to make adjustments based upon what happened. They're instantly looking forward to the next game as opposed to making some of those corrections based upon how they performed on Monday night. So it's a minor advantage. It's only one day of rest, but it is impactful. Over the course of, you know, these minor edges added up over the course of entire season, no team has ever played five opponents off of Monday Night Football like the Detroit Lions are going to play. The other interesting factor about the Lions schedule specifically is the comparison. And unfortunately, Chad, you know your Chicago Bears are there in the NFC north, the comparison of the Detroit Lions and how they stack up with the rest of the north. Because you know, if you look at my net rest edges in the article that I wrote, a lot of the teams in the NFC west are up at the top. The 49ers, the Rams, the Cardinals. The NFL tried to help out the 49ers, I think this year right the wrongs of those minus 20 days. And so they also ended up helping out some of the other teams in their division simultaneously. But for the NFC north, the Lions are the only team that's getting these edges. If you look at their division games with a rest edge, they have eight. No other team in their division has four. Your Chicago Bears only play two games with a rest disadvantage. I just mentioned the Chicago Bears, sorry, the Detroit Lions play only one such game. The Bears play five games with a rest disadvantage. And so if you look at the net, how many net games of rest advantage do you have? The Lions are at plus seven, eight and one plus seven. The Bears and everybody else is zero or worse. In fact, the Bears are minus three. So that's just games with a rest advantage. The the net games, the lions are at plus seven and your Chicago Bears are minus three. We're talking about a 10 game span in a 17 game season. So I just don't feel like things like that are necessarily fair, pre flop and equitable. And the league should be looking at at trying to make things a little bit more balanced, specifically within divisions so that teams don't have such wide sweeping edges in rest like they do right now in the NFC North.
- [34:18]
Chad Millman
Simon feels a little bit like a conspiracy theory from the NFL.
- [34:24]
It is and it isn't though, because you know, as someone that has lots of Football debates. I feel like 90% of my life is conversations about football. People call me off season. Are they going to call me to catch up, Chad? No, they're calling me to give me some crazy idea and have a conversation about football. And you know, we always talk, especially with the old heads about the Cowboys. Like that's such a polarizing team that you know, even when they're not that good, they're still going to get four to five primetime games and if they have a little bit of talent, they might get six or seven. Like that's just a team the NFL loves. But because of that, pros professionals have been on a steady fate of them since the 90s, ever since they become America's team really. They're always in these tough spots where they're not going to be great for a team, especially for their season and this season it's historical for them. The Cowboys are a team that have four Thursday games. That doesn't even sound real when you say it out loud, but it's true. And like it's the NFL. You could say as a Cowboys f you say we have a raw deal, they're screwing us here. And I would agree they really are because Warren's telling you like that Thursday game players talk all the time. Their bodies ain't right till that Thursday, Friday after our Sunday game. So they have four this year of short weeks and you know, they finagled it right. They give them back to back Thursdays. They try to make it work for them. But overall that's something that really jumps out to me. That's a team I love this season, the Cowboys, a team who's win total. I've been very heavy on a team that I bet for division. And you're seeing why? Because they have a tough schedule as well, like towards the end of the season. Why their win total is what it is, Chad. Seven and a half, eight and a half. Because the NFL screws them with the schedule because they are America's team and they're not getting any favors where the NFC east is playing really tough out division games this season. So that's something I really can't wait to dive into. And I get Warren's book about his outlook on this Cowboys team because that was something that jumped out to me right away where it's like, man, I thought I was getting insanely good value. You see their schedule once again I goes, okay, I get why that's such a low number. All right, there's a lot of hype for Washington Eagles, but they also have a very tough schedule this upcoming season in Dallas.
- [36:24]
Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites Thursday with Part 2 of our episode with Warren Sharp. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [36:47]
Warren Shar
Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER okay.
- [36:58]
Simon Hunter
Have you heard about this? Last year, Degree changed the formula for their Cool Rush deodorant. Their fans rebelled and wanted the old scent back and Degree listened. That doesn't happen often. They admitted that they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason it's the number one Manzani Perspirant and it's back in Walmart, Target and other stores for under $4. So try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local stores to try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.
- [37:31]
Unknown
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- [38:14]
Chad Millman
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