Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: The Favorites - 2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Shar - Part 1
Release Date: May 21, 2025
Host/Authors: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Featured Guest: Warren Shar, NFL Predictive Analyst

Introduction

In this episode of The Favorites, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into the intricacies of the newly released 2025 NFL schedule. Joined by renowned NFL predictive analyst Warren Shar, the conversation centers around the schedule's impact on betting strategies, potential rule changes from recent spring meetings, and the broader implications for teams and fans alike.

NFL Schedule Release and Betting Implications

Chad Millman opens the discussion by highlighting the excitement surrounding the NFL schedule release, emphasizing the extensive betting opportunities it presents:

"Lines are posted for every single game. Team totals are posted for games like the action to get down already for week one has been insane."
[02:01]

Warren Shar agrees, noting the freshness of the schedule and the abundance of new data to analyze:

"Everything's super fresh. It's never going to be any fresher than it is over the past, you know, week or so."
[03:12]

Rule Changes and Playoff Structure Proposals

The conversation shifts to the ongoing spring meetings and the proposed changes to the NFL's playoff structure. Chad Millman expresses reservations about alterations that might remove the home-field advantage for lower-seeded playoff teams:

"It's I feel like they're trying to take away something we all love as bettors, which is home dogs in the playoffs."
[05:10]

Warren Shar provides a deeper analysis, discussing the likelihood of these proposals passing and their potential impact on team strategies:

"I actually think it might be like the players association that would feel the strongest, like, hey, our guys should deserve a little bit of a rest."
[06:46]

He further elaborates on how these changes could affect betting patterns, particularly concerning rest advantages:

"Teams in the strong divisions are still going to be playing to try to get their seating and the teams in the weak division..."
[08:17]

Rest Advantages and Scheduling Fairness

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the concept of rest advantages—teams enjoying extra rest weeks and how this affects their performance and betting outcomes.

Warren Shar cites data supporting the diminishing benefits of bye weeks since the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement:

"Prior to 2011, we had major advantages from bye weeks and you could cover the spread 56% of the time if you were just betting on the team that was off of a bye..."
[11:55]

He critiques the NFL's scheduling practices, highlighting disparities such as the Detroit Lions having an unprecedented number of games with rest advantages:

"The Detroit Lions are screwed from a strength of opponent perspective... they have eight games where they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games has never happened before in NFL history."
[28:29]

Chad Millman echoes these concerns, pointing out how marquee teams like the Cowboys are adversely affected by unfavorable schedules:

"They have four Thursday games... they have a tough schedule as well, like towards the end of the season."
[34:17]

Impact on Specific Teams

The hosts and guest discuss specific teams and how their schedules may influence their performance and betting value.

• Cincinnati Bengals: Facing repetitive challenging matchups, especially against teams like the Baltimore Ravens on short rest.

• San Francisco 49ers: Previously dealt with significant rest disadvantages, impacting their season performance.

• Detroit Lions: Highlighted as having a unique and challenging schedule with multiple rest advantages.

Warren Shar emphasizes the importance of analyzing these factors when predicting game outcomes and advising bettors:

"Identifying the situations where rest is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important over the last several seasons."
[11:55]

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Chad Millman expressing enthusiasm for future discussions and the upcoming second part of the episode with Warren Shar. The hosts encourage listeners to utilize the insights shared to refine their betting strategies and deepen their understanding of the NFL schedule's complexities.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman:
  "Lines are posted for every single game... week one has been insane."
  [02:01]

• Warren Shar:
  "Prior to 2011, we had major advantages from bye weeks... now they're covering the spread 47, 48% of the time."
  [11:55]

• Chad Millman:
  "They're always in these tough spots where they're not going to be great for a team, especially for their season."
  [34:17]

• Warren Shar:
  "The Detroit Lions are screwed from a strength of opponent perspective... eight games has never happened before in NFL history."
  [28:29]

This episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the 2025 NFL schedule, providing valuable insights for fans and bettors alike. Warren Shar's expertise sheds light on the strategic implications of scheduling decisions, emphasizing the need for bettors to consider rest advantages and scheduling fairness when making their wagers.