The Favorites - 2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 2

Release Date: May 23, 2025
Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Guest: Warren Sharp

Introduction

In the second part of "The Favorites" podcast episode, hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter of the Action Network, the hosts continue their in-depth analysis of the 2025 NFL schedule with special guest Warren Sharp. Building upon their previous discussion, they delve deeper into team strategies, rest advantages, and the implications for the upcoming NFL season.

Recap of Previous Discussions

Chad Millman opens the conversation by recapping their last session with Warren Sharp, where they explored potential changes to playoff seeding, the Tush Push strategy, and the significance of rest advantages from both a betting and one-loss perspective. They also touched on how rest advantages could indicate which teams are poised to win their divisions, influencing win totals, futures, and odds.

San Francisco 49ers Analysis

Warren Sharp provides a comprehensive analysis of the San Francisco 49ers, focusing on their recent decisions and future prospects.

• Quarterback Contract:
  “The Niners historically have been successful because they've generally kept their costs under control and they've kept their quarterback costs under control. Specifically, while this is an outsized contract, it's not like a break the bank for a quarterback contract this year.” ([02:33])

• Player Health and Rest Advantages:
  “They’ve been getting screwed on rest advantages for the past three years and I do think it really came back to haunt them last year.” ([03:00])

• Fred Warner's Resilience:
  “Fred Warner, who broke his ankle in Week 4 and played 100% of the snaps the next seven straight games, did not miss a game for the rest of the season...” ([04:08])

• Team Depth and Roster Management:
  “They have more studs than many teams do and they're paying those studs what they deserve. So then they're going to have to get by with better players that are playing on their rookie deals...” ([04:36])

• Offensive Strategy Under Kyle Shanahan:
  “Kyle is such a genius when it comes to designing offense... he’s working much, many more steps behind than most other offenses are able to because they don't have such unique game plans designed to such unique, talented players.” ([06:00])

• Schedule Strength and Future Prospects:
  “They play the easiest schedule of any team in the NFL because they had that rare horrible season... they’re going to need this draft class to impact their 2025 season if they're going to get to where they need to get.” ([07:30])

Chad Millman reflects on the schedule details: “If they continue to botch their drafts, which they've done a little bit more than I think 49ers fans would like... they need to hit is a secret team that I felt really needed to hit in this year's draft...” ([08:24])

Buffalo Bills Evaluation

The conversation shifts focus to the Buffalo Bills, highlighting their favorable schedule and strategic advantages.

• Warren Sharp on Bills' Favorable Schedule:
  “The Buffalo Bills play the number one easiest strength of schedule of opponents on the road of this entire season. Their road schedule is the easiest.” ([14:18])

• Rest Disadvantages Later in the Season:
  “From week 10 through week 18, they're playing four games at a rest disadvantage...” ([16:00])

• Strategic Tent Poles in Schedule:
  “Week one, Sunday night football, Baltimore Ravens at home... Week nine, halfway through the season, Kansas City Chiefs at home...” ([16:30])

Simon Hunter expresses optimism about the Bills: “There’s so many things that just break Buffalo's way with that schedule. It sets up very well for the Buffalo Bills.” ([20:29])

Chad Millman suggests betting strategies: “I might do a Bills vs. Niners, Super Bowl matchup bet right now before the number on the Niners drops even more.” ([13:53])

Super Bowl Odds and Betting Insights

Simon Hunter and Chad Millman discuss the Super Bowl odds, particularly focusing on the 49ers and Bills:

• 49ers' Odds:
  “We got it. I was a 20 to 1. I'm seeing most books now 15 and 16 to 1.” ([10:21])

• Bills' Dominance in Early Season Games:
  “The Buffalo Bills are favored in every single game... They just seem like a team that's going to easily get to 11-12 wins the way the schedule set up for them.” ([12:39])

• Potential Super Bowl Matchup:
  “A Bills vs. Niners, Super Bowl matchup bet... What do you think of that, Simon?”
  "I love it." ([13:53] - [14:10])

Tennessee Titans and Other Teams

Simon Hunter highlights the Tennessee Titans as a "unicorn team" with a unique schedule:

“Tennessee is a team in a very unique scenario of very simple all season, 1 o' clock, 4:30 Sunday. I love that for a team that I'm very interested in this upcoming season.” ([25:00])

Chad Millman adds: “Tennessee and New Orleans, the only teams without prime time games this year.” ([26:32])

Bye Weeks and Player Health

Warren Sharp emphasizes the importance of strategic bye weeks and their impact on player health and team performance:

• Strategic Use of Bye Weeks:
  “Teams care about when their bye week is and they're trying to focus on it... The Philadelphia Eagles were a prime example of this. Jumping out to big leads early in game so they could rest their guys...” ([27:18])

• Preventing Player Fatigue:
  “More teams need to be aggressive early in games, to jump out to leads, to be up at halftime, to put games to bed by the middle of the third quarter so they could rest these guys...” ([28:00])

Chad Millman agrees, noting the physical toll of the sport: “The buy is probably saving years on people's careers because it is a brutal game.” ([24:05])

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter wrap up the episode by reiterating the strategic insights shared by Warren Sharp. They encourage listeners to consider the analyzed schedules and team strategies when making their betting decisions for the upcoming NFL season. The hosts also promote Warren Sharp's preseason football book, offering listeners a discounted rate.

Warren Sharp emphasizes the need for teams to balance competitiveness with player health through strategic game management and bye week utilization.

“Teams want to be ahead. Their number one priority is being ahead at the final whistle after 60 minutes. Their priority should be to be up by double digits entering the fourth quarter.” ([28:30])

Key Takeaways

• San Francisco 49ers: Solid team with strategic player contracts and a favorable schedule, but dependent on draft success and player health.
• Buffalo Bills: Highly favored schedule with strategic home games against tough opponents, though face rest disadvantages late in the season.
• Tennessee Titans: Unique scheduling without prime time games, presenting a strategic advantage.
• Bye Weeks: Crucial for maintaining player health and team performance; strategic use can influence playoff success.
• Super Bowl Betting: Strong recommendations for considering Bills vs. Niners as a potential matchup based on current odds and schedule analysis.

Notable Quotes

• Warren Sharp:
  “Fred Warner... did not miss a game for the rest of the season even though the Niners only won six games and were eliminated from the playoffs.” ([04:08])

• Simon Hunter:
  “There’s so many things that just break Buffalo's way with that schedule... It sets up very well for the Buffalo Bills.” ([20:29])

• Warren Sharp:
  “Teams want to be ahead... Their priority should be to be up by double digits entering the fourth quarter.” ([28:30])

This detailed analysis offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of the strategic elements influencing the 2025 NFL season, providing valuable insights for fans and bettors alike.