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The Favorites - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker
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- [00:00]
Steph Curry
Make some noise. For the greatest shooter of all time, Steph Curry. We went live from All Star Weekend for a new podcast called Goat Greatest of their era. And we ranked our top five shooters from the 2000s.
- [00:13]
Peja Stojaković
Peja 5, Dirk Ford.
- [00:14]
Steph Curry
Peja is alone. You won't believe who Steph left off his list.
- [00:18]
Peja Stojaković
That's so tough. That's why we have these conversations.
- [00:21]
Steph Curry
Yes, absolutely.
- [00:22]
Peja Stojaković
Love it.
- [00:22]
Steph Curry
Listen to Goat G O T e Greatest of their era on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:38]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:03]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. How are we doing, brother?
- [01:05]
Chad Millman
You know, I'm so excited for today. You know, it's one of my favorite.
- [01:09]
Simon Hunter
Days, time of year.
- [01:11]
Chad Millman
It's one of my favorite days of the year. It's one of my favorite episodes that we do every year. I get to talk to my favorite annual guest. He's truly become my bff. We talk even beyond the show.
- [01:24]
Michael Lasker
It's true.
- [01:25]
Chad Millman
A true Hollywood insider. A top talent manager at Mosaic in Los Angeles. A man named one of the 40 most powerful people in comedy by the Hollywood Reporter. Most importantly, he's one of America's true Academy Awards savants who can effortlessly rattle off every major category nominee across every year. He's our favorite kind of sicko. He's Michael Lasker. Welcome back to the show, Lasker.
- [01:58]
Michael Lasker
Thank you. It's great to be back with you guys. Thanks, Chad. Thanks, Simon. I want to point out that you're. You're reporting on a Hollywood Reporter issue that is like maybe 7 or 8 years old. Oh, I know, I know.
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Chad Millman
I like that it's in there. Every single year we do it. And I remember when you first came on and we mentioned it, you very humbly try to distract from the mention because at that point it was like, I don't know, a year or two old. So at this point, it is like five, six years old. Matt Mitchell continues to put it in there. He loves to put it in there. He thinks it brings a lot of credibility and.
- [02:37]
Michael Lasker
No, we should. Well, Matt Mitchell, he, he's our guru. He knows, he knows. Going on, guys, how are you? I mean, by the way, I'm going to just say not to, not to immediately take over the pod, but I'M going to say what I think is very exciting and must be super exciting for you guys. This is a great year for the Oscars. This is a year with a lot of suspense. I mean, last year, of course, Oppenheimer was like, mowing everybody down. The previous year, everything everywhere was like, on its way towards the end. There are like, I don't know if I'm going to be right today. There's a lot of good races still. Let's break them down. But I mean, I would think, I mean, you guys are the experts. Like, there's a way to actually make some money this year.
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Chad Millman
I think there is going to be. It's really interesting and we're starting to see a lot of sort of movement in the markets just because some of the awards have been so inconsistent. There have been some controversies. We're going to get into all of it. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be at 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. And before we dive in, another reminder, you can officially RSVP for our free Favorites Live show event in Chicago. Let's fill this room, folks. This will be for the Elite Eight March Madness games. Saturday, March 29 Joe's Bar on Weed street, also better known as Joe's on Weed, nearish Lincoln park in Chicago. Free event, free free drinks, Free live show me Simon plus some other folks gonna be joining. Please RSVP to reserve your spot. Click the link in this episode's description or just Google Favorites. Live event Chicago Simon, I'm already losing sleep over like people coming to this thing. I just want you to know, like.
- [04:59]
Michael Lasker
How big is this place? What do we have to fill here?
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Chad Millman
It's a decent size. We gotta get some people in there. That's all I'm saying. And I feel extra pressure being from Chicago. Like I've already texted, like, you know, you got different text chains and stuff. And I got a text chain with all my friends that I went to College with. To Indiana, with who all live in Chicago. I'm like, please come, let's make it a reunion. Tell all your kids, tell all your friends. Like, let's just fill this room.
- [05:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you gotta fudge numbers. I tried bringing 25 relatives. That's what my move was in the Philadelphia one. So, yeah, that's definitely.
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Chad Millman
Oh, my God. Like every one of my dad's 80 year old friends, they're going to be turning out. That's all. That's it. We'll get them a special room. All right, we ready to dig in here? Here's what we're going to.
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Michael Lasker
Yeah, let's do.
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Chad Millman
We're going to focus on the eight major categories. Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Actress, Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Adapted screenplay. This will be fun because Lasker, you and I, we spoke in December for a little while, late in December, and we went through the odds like on prediction markets, and we talked about sort of what the markets were saying. And you gave me your best instincts of what you were hearing, seeing, wondering, thinking based on your expertise through a bunch of categories. So I tried to remember having not taken notes on that call because you're my BFF and I don't take notes on those calls.
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Michael Lasker
I know, we just, we're just like staring at each other's eyes, even though we're not even. We weren't even FaceTiming.
- [06:24]
Chad Millman
No, no, I was just thinking about your face. Yeah. So the ones I remember specifically were Best Director and Best Supporting Actress. I added Conte to those. I'm. At least I'm going to try. But let's start with Best Actress.
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Michael Lasker
Okay.
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Chad Millman
This one has had so much controversy because Carla Sophia Gascon, the nominee from Amelia Perez, has basically tweeted herself out of the running. Do you want to explain? You want me to explain? Do you want to give your take on sort of.
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Michael Lasker
Well, the take. The take that I would give. And you know, not to, you know, not to wade into politics. I, I think it's actually weirdly irrelevant because I. And by the way, I really liked Emilia Perez and I thought she was excellent in the movie. I don't. I never thought she was going to win. So, yes, it was a very weird classic Hollywood meltdown that the entire town watched in real time. And I talked to people associated with Netflix who were basically like, we've never seen anything like it. Like, I mean, she really, really just went rogue. And, and so, you know, but I don't think she was ever going to win. And so really, this race, as you know, is between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, and it's a really, really compelling race. Now, let's just go back, you know, two days.
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Chad Millman
Before you do that. Let me just give the odds right now. We got Demi Moore.
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Michael Lasker
You know what, Chad? It's your show.
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Chad Millman
Yeah, thank you. Demi Moore for the substance. She's at minus 300. Mikey Madison for Honora plus 165. And then the rest of the field is. Is pretty far off. So it's really is between those two. So. Yes, give us your take.
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Michael Lasker
Well, so what's interesting is, okay, so Demi won SAG on Sunday. And the thing about sag, just as one predictor and. And one thing I want to, you know, maintain and always sort of give the blanket statement is that it's great that there's all these precursor awards, and in a certain way, they do kind of start to calcify a perception as to who's going to win. But for everybody listening at home, there's no body in any of these precursor awards, the pga, the dga, sag, wga, Golden Globes, that truly, truly correlates to the Academy as a for instance. I think there's, like 10,000 members in the Academy. The acting branch of the academy is the largest branch. I should have looked it up before we got here, but let's say it's like three to five thousand members are in the actor branch. There's 150,000 people in SAG who were eligible to vote, you know, in the last week for the SAG Awards, which were announced on Sunday. So ultimately, like, just because it's something they did does not mean it's going to completely correlate, because you've got people that are doing day player parts on TV shows voting for who they think should win, you know, Best Actress. So with that said, you can still look at this stuff to figure out if there's patterns. So what I decided to do was, for a lot of this, was go back to, like, 2010, basically. Like, you know, start with that decade and go forward. So from 2010 to now, 10 of the 14 winners for SAG Best Actress, then correlated to the Oscar, the Oscar winner. So that's, you know, you guys are numbers guys, like 10 of 14. That's pretty decent. With that said, and this is my kind of hunch on this race, which will lead into some of the other races. I'm thinking about last year. Last year, Lily Gladstone beat Emma Stone. And I thought Lily Gladstone was excellent in Killers of the Flower Moon. And there were two narratives she had one was there was a question the entire year, which was, was she the lead actress or was she the supporting actress? Because she's really kind of the supporting part of that movie. But the other issue, or not issue, the narrative was she's a Native American woman playing a Native American character in a movie that is about the plight of Native American people. And, you know, there was a sense of like, well, we want to honor this because this representation has not been around enough. And I picked Lou Gladstone to win at the Oscars. And the minute Michelle Yeoh announced Emma Stone winning, I was like, I'm an idiot. Of course Emma Stone was winning the whole time. Because if you had watched Poor Things, it was impossible to not come away thinking Emma Stone was every single inch of that movie. She was absolutely brilliant. Not to mention she's kind of one of the most famous people working in Hollywood. And when you go back to, like, who's winning two Oscars for Best Actor Actress before they're 40, that is a very, very rarefied list. My point is, now you look at Demi versus Mikey. I love Demi Moore. I mean, I'm 45 years old. Demi Moore was a huge part of my childhood. A Few Good Men, you know, like, she was married to Bruce Willis, my all time favorite actor. Like, I love Demi Moore. I'm rooting for Demi Moore just as a human being. And she's run an amazing press tour. If you watch the Substance, it is truly a 5050 movie. I mean, by design, she takes the substance and then Margaret Paul appears not to give too much of it away. And then the rest of the movie, they're going back and forth, sharing the body, and she's amazing in it, but it's like a 50, 50 split. If you watch Anora, not unlike Poor Things, every inch of that movie is Mikey Madison. And not to get into the other categories, but obviously Anora is surging. And we'll come back to that later when we get to like Best Picture and Director. But I do feel like, frankly, if there's this much love for Anora, well, how can you have that much love for it and not have the love for Mikey Madison? The thing going against her has been that she's 25 years old. The youngest actress to ever win the best Actress Oscar is Marley Matlin. She won in 1986 for Children of a Lesser God. She was 21. Now, there are young actresses that win relatively frequently. Jennifer Lawrence won when she was really young for Silver Linings Playbook. It's the best actor category where Typically, young men do not win, ironically. We'll get to this later, but when Adrian Brody won in 2002 for the Pianist, he was the youngest actor since. He might have beaten the record. I have to look it up. But since Richard Dreyfus won in 1977 for the goodbye Girl, so typically, best actor goes to, like, older men. And we'll get to that. Between Tim Chalamet and Adrian.
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Chad Millman
Now.
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Michael Lasker
Now Adrian's the older man, so. But this is. This is an amazing race. I mean, Mikey Madison, you know, won Indie Spirit Award. She won the bafta, which is not nothing. Demi won the Golden Globe. Demi won sag. Demi has a huge following, obviously, in Hollywood for years. I think there's probably a sense that, like, will Demi be nominated again? Who knows? Whereas Mikey's at the beginning of her career and she could be nominated five more times for all we know. This one is such a toss up, but I am going to go with Mikey Madison.
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Chad Millman
I'm shocked because I feel like you said two things that actually contradict your theory about Emma Stone. Demi Moore is the significantly more famous actor in this case. There is a history of wanting to give the award as a career award for someone at this stage when they haven't won before, haven't been appreciated, haven't been acknowledged. And I love that your reference point for Demi Moore is being married to Bruce Willis and.
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Michael Lasker
And A few.
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Chad Millman
And like. And the movies and Disclosure and A Few Good Men. And I'm thinking like, you know, St. Elmo's Fire. Yeah, because. Because that's my reference point. But number one, she's more famous. Number two, I do think in the substance she had, I do feel like she carried that movie. And Margaret Qualley was amazing in the movie, but, like, her acting was much more muted to me, almost literally, like she just had. Didn't have a lot of lines like in the first 35, 40 minutes of the movie. Whereas Demi Moore was. She felt like a different person to me compared to her public Persona. Simon, you're nodding back and forth. I think you're with me.
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Simon Hunter
I think it is all part of the game. Like, there's a couple things we'll talk about here coming up. But it's like, even if, like you just said it's career, Right. It's not just. We know that it's that part of the game. Right. It's not just for the one movie they've done. It's for their body of work. And like you said, she knows a lot of these people in this business better Than, you know, unfortunately for Mickey. But I'm, I'm going to be betting here on the dog. So I already know where I'm going. I mean, I get a Demi, should be minus 300. But you know me, Chad, I like the dog. I like the upside, the value here. What he's talking about, like, we've seen last minute flips here in the Oscars, right? They, they've gotten the favorites wrong because it is kind of the human element, right. They don't know how these people are going to vote. All they can do is just project. So you know me, Jad, I'm a sucker for the dog.
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Michael Lasker
Well, the other thing too, keep in mind, you have to go back to like, okay, what are the narratives we have? Like, you get a narrative on the day of the nominations and you get a narrative now basically to this moment when we've had every precursor award except obviously the Oscars. The narrative on the day of the nominations was a couple things. Over performers were a complete unknown substance, actually, which helps to me more and I'm still here. The Brazilian film that it got into the best picture race and Fernanda Torres got best actress nomination. Those were the over performers. So that would bode well for Demi Moore. But then when you look at the next two months, the massive over performer has been anora, which, you know, best picture of the PGA's best director of the DGA will get to DGA. That's a highly correlative, you know, one to one over like 90 years, you know, winning Critics Choice awards. Did not win BAFTA or did not win BAFTA or sag. We'll come back to that. I have some stats and Golden Globes went to brutalists, but, and I'm very much on the record here, like, I don't think the Golden Globes matter. I mean, the Golden Globes are not even voted on. People who even work in the business technically, you know, you could at least make a correlation to say, well, the producers are, you know, there's a certain body of producers in the Oscar, you know, in the Academy, blah, blah, blah, blah. So to me, I just feel like you have to pay attention to like, it's been a weird year for movies. I thought it was actually a very good year. Despite there not being some massive heavyweight, everybody agreed was the second coming. But in talking to a lot of Academy members and voters, one of the movies people always come back to is Anora. And by the way, a lot of the movies people come back to is brutalist, but it just seems like brutalist is like not dead on arrival, but like, you know, is not going to win best picture, I think.
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Chad Millman
I feel like it had its moment.
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Michael Lasker
It had its moment.
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Chad Millman
Let's. So we, we like Mikey Madison here. What you guys do?
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Michael Lasker
Well, you listen, I'm happy to. Me. Yeah.
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Chad Millman
But I do. I want to talk. I want to get to. I want to get to director because Lasker, when you and I spoke, Brady Corbett, I think was. Who directed the Brutalist. Yeah, was the odds on favorite at the time. And I had just seen Anora. I freaking loved it. I thought it was amazing. Shawn Baker, the director of Anora, he was, I think, the second shortest odds now. Sean Baker minus 185. Brady Corbett plus 125. I feel like if Demi Moore has had an incredible Oscars campaign. Brady Corbett peaked and then has gone downhill since he gave that speech. And now he just continues to look like a very precious, unself aware director. And that along with the fact Anora has gotten so much more heat the past few months, has catapulted Sean Baker.
- [18:03]
Michael Lasker
Here's, here's, here's what I would say. I think, you know, I always want to be politically correct because I work in this business. I think that Sean Baker's speeches at the DGA and at the Indie Spirit Awards were like really strong and really big rally cries. And look, they're both incredible artists. They both have been very on the record, like these guys. I, I, a producer who produced some of Sean's movies, who produced a film for one of my clients was telling me, like, Sean Baker doesn't moonlight for the studios and rewrite romcoms for them. When he's not making movies. He is an independent filmmaker. He goes from one project to the next. He makes whatever money he can make. He literally said in his speech on Saturday, the Indie Spirit Awards, that he doesn't have children. And if he had children, he wasn't sure he'd be able to, like, survive because of the way him and his wife, you know, live, you know, making these movies. And Brady has been very open on many, many interviews and on many podcasts about, you know, the life they're living. He hasn't made anything off the Brutalist. I thought the Brutalist was absolutely incredible. Definitely when it like really hit in December, it was like, okay, Brutalist is here to stay. He's going to do it. I don't think the Golden Globe speech helped, but I think on the bigger level, you know, I loved the movie, but it's not a movie for everybody. And it's not a movie where, like, it landed for everybody. There's a lot of people that are like, that. First half was incredible, second half, less incredible. Wasn't sure that Dakota, like, totally landed. And there's a lot of people who think that it's an absolute masterpiece, but it does feel like it's faded. I was very surprised he didn't win Best director from the DGAs, and frankly, very surprised they didn't win at the PGAs, because what a lot of us thought was, we. You have a bunch of producers voting on this, and the whole story of the Brutalist. One of the stories has been that they made it for 10 million bucks, and it looks like 50. So, like, why wouldn't the producers vote for that? Because that's really impressive and they didn't care. And by the way, Anora was made for, like, you know, a similar amount of money and also is a. I mean, people love Anora. So I think, you know. Yeah, I mean, you can't. You don't have really good odds on Sean Baker, but it would be very hard to bet against him. The DGA almost always correlates, and sometimes when it doesn't correlate, that's because. And I have to look up the years. I mean, one of them, notably, was 1995. In 1995, Ron Howard wins Best Director, the DGA for Apollo 13, and then is not nominated for the. For the Oscars, and that's when Mel Gibson wins for Braveheart. So there's years like that where the winner doesn't correlate. But that's also a very weird exception when the winner of the DGA is also nominated for the Oscar. I'd have to look it up. But, like, I. I think maybe the last time where it was in both fields was, I want to say Sam Mendes won for 1917 at the DGAs. Then, of course, Bong Joon Ho won at the Oscars, which was a massive, like, surge that night because he won so many Academy Awards. But typically, it does correlate. I mean, almost always. So I think you have to go for Shawn Baker for Director right now.
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Chad Millman
Well, you could parlay Sean Baker at minus 185 and Demi Moore at minus 300 and get a little better. Right, Simon? That's. That's what we like to do.
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Michael Lasker
Well, by the way, speaking of that. And this will come to a non of the big eight categories, but it's a category I want to bring up in a second as it relates to Best Picture. Can you guys Actually bet in real time as the show's going on. Like, can you place a. No, it has to be locked.
- [21:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. They close it like an hour before. Usually got it like as soon as they. As soon as I hit the red carpet, they. Almost all markets go off just because it's like that's where the information is being shared. Right. That's where the leaks start happening once you get here in the building.
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Michael Lasker
Well, once when we get a Best Picture, I want to throw out a side category that could connect to that. But we'll come back to that in a second.
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Chad Millman
All right, so we're going with Anora and Sean Baker.
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Michael Lasker
Yeah.
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Chad Millman
For Best Director.
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Michael Lasker
Yeah.
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Chad Millman
The Substance. To me, we're going to go on to Best Original Screenplay. And this is a race between again, Anora, which is about minus, I think 230 and substance, which is plus 280. And a real pain is sort of drifting around there at +750. That's the Jesse Eisenberg movie that he did with Kieran Culkin. So Anora and Substance, both amazing, amazing movies. I felt like the last 20 minutes of the Substance kind of went from mind boggling horror slash big think piece to kind of silly and lazy. Whereas Anora, like went from. This is a fun, cool, sexy romp with a really smart lead and kind of a dopey supporting actor and had a crazy pivot that just made it more and more insane in a really good way. Simon, you're. You agree with me on this? You're shaking your head.
- [23:13]
Simon Hunter
I thought it was good where it just felt like, no, I don't want to age myself here. But it feels like so many movies nowadays are 440 and above and you don't really get too many 20s and like 20s and below. That's actually well done. Right. Like you get kind of these rom comps or whatever, but this felt like actual thing of someone from this age, from my generation wrote a piece of their life into a good, actual movie with actual good characters. Like, not to shit on female roles, but a lot of times they don't keep them real. Right. It's all about either them chasing a boy or them going through heartbreak or just something stupid. In general, they don't really develop as a character in this movie. I felt like they really developed the female role in these characters, which is great for this time period. Right. It's all about, you know, people my age wanting to get. Want to see things about things they've gone through in their lives. And it felt like, we had a dead period right in the 90s, we had a ton. The early 2000s, we had a ton. And then we've had a run here of maybe one every two years of a timepiece of young people my age living in New York or Chicago, Louisiana. And showing what the life is like there. So I'm right there with each other. That's why I'm shocked to see it's picked up steam here. Right? Like, every category we're going through right here, they're kind of the favorite, right? So it's interesting they've picked up so much steam such so late here.
- [24:30]
Michael Lasker
Well, I think you make a good point. I mean, you know, some people on other podcasts have talked about, like, is a Nora, does it have too much sex to win, like, Best Picture? And people reference that, you know, the only X rated film to ever win best picture was Midnight Cowboy 1969. And that movie would not be rated X day. That was just because of the time. There's not even that much sex in it. I think the thing about Anora, what connected to people is that you just saw her as this real person. You didn't see her. She wasn't a prostitute. She was a stripper who sometimes would, you know, you know, do other things, you know, as, as the movie sets up. And it really, I think, tapped you into, like, this is just a young person who's trying to live their life and has dreams. And I think a lot of what people enjoy about the movie is like, it's this debate of, like, is she dumb? Is she not dumb? Like, she really thinks this guy's in love with her. She really thinks she's gonna. She's gonna be married to this guy. Like, she's surprised that it turns out he's just a video game loving, you know, teen, you know what I mean, all that stuff. So what a lot of people thought going into the nomination, you know, season was that, oh, Anora would be a lock to win original screenplay because that would be the valid, the consolation prize for Anora. Other movies would win the other big awards. And now it turned out to have all this momentum. The thing about the substance, and I do think the screenplay, I mean, the movie's way too long, but the screenplay is really good. And what it's saying, obviously about like modern beauty and societal standards, you know, specifically for women, but not to compare one French movie to another. But I do think back to Anatomy of a Fall, you know, the movie that won best original screenplay last year, that movie, to me Just had so much more momentum in the way people talked about it and what it was sort of analyzing about, you know, marriage. I think Corali, you know, obviously getting director nomination, writer nomination, producer nomination is huge. I still don't think she's going to win. What's interesting in talking to a lot of people the last few days, people do not want to count out a real pain yet. He won the Indie Spirit award on Saturday. The town loves when. When actors also write. Emma Thompson adapted Sense of sensibility in 1995, won the Oscar for best adaptation. So I. I would not entirely be surprised if he pulled an upset. I still think. And I'm. And I'm going, you know, as you'll see later, with just the momentum of, like, you've got to think about the end of the night and the next morning of, like, what was the story. And the only viable story going into this Academy Awards is Anora. You know, it's not going to be a. A year where something wins 7, 8, 9 Oscars. I'll get back to some of those stats when we get to best picture. But I think you have to bet on Anora because it would be surprising to me that, like, substance or real pain is winning that. And then he's winning director and picture, and she's winning actress, if we think she's winning actress. But I don't know. I mean, it's. It's another good, you know, up in the air category. I've talked to Academy voters that voted for September 5th. You know, that's obviously not going to win, but you just never know. That's the beauty. And to remind your listeners at home, the way the Academy Awards work is that the individual branches nominate their respective members. So all the writers nominate the writing nominees. But for this Sunday, everybody who's voting votes for the entire ballot. So a cinematographer is voting for screenplay. An actor is voting for screenplay. You know, somebody who's a. An at large member because they're in the business as an agent or a manager or a lawyer, they're voting for everything. So it's not all just writers looking at the craft of writing. I do think also, I mean, Sean Baker and same thing for Brady and same thing for Coraline. But like, Sean Baker has so, you know, in a major way been this kind of outlier of, like, I'm not in the system. And he's made other movies that have flirted with the Academy Awards. I mean, he made the Florida project, which a lot of people thought was going down to be for best Picture. It wasn't, but Willem Dafoe was nominated for best supporting actor, so, like, he's been kind of, like, knocking on the door of the academy and people really, really like him and they really respect him. So I think it could be a very big night for him.
- [28:22]
Steph Curry
Make some noise for the greatest shooter of all time, Steph Curry. We went live from All Star Weekend to our new podcast called called Goat Greatest of their Era. And we ranked our top five shooters from the 2000s.
- [28:35]
Peja Stojaković
Peja 5. Dirk Ford.
- [28:37]
Steph Curry
Peja is a loot.
- [28:38]
Michael Lasker
I'm mad him.
- [28:39]
Steph Curry
I left him off my list, but I still like my list. You won't believe who Steph left off his list.
- [28:45]
Peja Stojaković
That's so tough. That's why we have these conversations.
- [28:48]
Steph Curry
Yes, absolutely.
- [28:49]
Peja Stojaković
Love it.
- [28:50]
Steph Curry
Steph talked about what separates the truly elite NBA shooters.
- [28:53]
Peja Stojaković
When you have a scouting report and you're on the list as not just a shooter, but we have specific rules for how we guard you. There's a fear factor that's associated with anytime you're wide open. Like, you might as well just count that and get on back on defense.
- [29:09]
Steph Curry
Listen to Goat G O T E Greatest of their era on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:17]
Michael Lasker
Sean Baker, People really, really like him, and they really respect him.
- [29:20]
Chad Millman
What do you think happens to that guy's career if he wins?
- [29:25]
Michael Lasker
I. I've talked about this. I. I asked my friend who produced a couple movies for him, and she was like, nothing. He. He will just keep making movies. He's not gonna, you know, Edward Berger, who's a genius. Every two months you open up the trades. It's like, Edward Berger's doing Ocean's 14. Edward Berger's rebooting the Bourne Supremacy. Like, Edward Berger, who I thought is amazing. We'll talk about Conclave. He seems to, like, really be like, I'm in Hollywood and, like, give me Hollywood stuff to do. I want to make huge movies. Sean Baker is an artist. You know, he's just going to go make his next story. I literally asked a friend this, and she was like, yeah, he's not. He's not going to go do a weekly for Warner Brothers for 250 grand to, like, help them on a movie. That's, like, not who he is.
- [30:08]
Chad Millman
Simon, you and I are artists.
- [30:09]
Michael Lasker
Oh, you guys are total artists.
- [30:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah. We would never. We would never ever sell. I like the idea. I like the idea of Jesse Eisenberg getting a little bit of love at +750. I like the real Pain. I didn't love it.
- [30:22]
Simon Hunter
Did you watch his speech the other night?
- [30:23]
Chad Millman
I thought his speech was great. I think last year, that's maybe why you were thinking Emma Stone is because he kept referring to Emma Stone in his speech. I thought. And I thought the speech was great. I thought the movie was, to me. Okay. And we'll get to Kieran Culkin. I didn't know you could, you know, be in the lead for, you know, supporting actor or actor. I forgot what he is for. Playing yourself. That apparently that or playing a character.
- [30:52]
Michael Lasker
You already played on a TV show, on hbo. It's four years.
- [30:55]
Chad Millman
That's basically what he's doing. And he's just, you know, he seems to be very charming, and people like to have him at award show, so they just keep letting him win. All right, let's talk about best picture here for a second, because we're just. We're coming out of original screenplay.
- [31:09]
Michael Lasker
Okay.
- [31:10]
Chad Millman
Anora minus 300. Conclave, you just mentioned plus 215. Then the brutalist plus 600. Complete unknown plus 2800. So I thought Conclave was amazing. And Lasker, you and I and Simon, I think it was two years ago. The Menu, to me was one of the best movies of the year.
- [31:37]
Michael Lasker
You were on the record. You loved the Menu.
- [31:39]
Chad Millman
I loved that movie. I actually just watched it again. You can see it now. I think it's on Netflix. It's so freaking good. It is so good. Conclave obviously reminds me a little bit of that movie and because the actors and all that kind of stuff. But give me your take on Conclave or is this just Anora? Anora.
- [32:03]
Michael Lasker
This one is so up in the air. I mean, first of all, I really, really liked Conclave. I thought it was. And I actually watched it twice. And the second time I watched it with my 78 year old mother, and she gasped when it ended at. At the ending, which was hilarious to watch in real time. I thought it was great. I mean, I do think, and I want to be careful not to spoil for people who haven't seen it. I. I still am not sure that the ending entirely works of Conclave. Like the, the, you know, the kind of what you find out at the very, very end. And I do think that a lot of these movies that tend to win best picture, sometimes they do come down to, like, the ending. Like, you know, I look back at 2018 when Green Book beat Roma, and, you know, if you just look at it from, like a moviegoing standpoint, you know, Roma was a piece of art. Green Book was a movie that, like, made you feel. And you remember back to, like, when the door knocks at the end of the movie and Mahershala Ali is standing there freezing and they hug each other. And that's why that movie wins Best Picture. That's what people want. And no different than Coda and the, you know, 2020, which is Nomadland and 2021 is Coda. Those were weird years because of COVID But, like, you look at Koda when the dad says, I want to hear you sing, and he puts his hand on her neck to feel her vocal cords. That's why these movies win. And I kind of thought Conclave botched that a little bit with, you know, the twist. But I loved the movie and I thought it was directed within an inch of its life, and the editing and the photography and the acting, and I could watch Ralph Fiennes do literally anything. He's never won an Oscar. He was nominated in 93 for Schindler's List for supporting actor, in 96 for best actor for the English Patient. And he's been. Been overlooked, like, seven times. Should have been nominated for the Grand Budapest Hotel. Like, another amazing. Another movie he's amazing in and an amazing film. So let's look at some of the best picture stats. So Anora won the pga, the dga, the wga, the cca. That's critics choice. Brutalist won Golden Globes. That's like a distant memory. And now Conclave has won BAFTA and sag. Okay, all right, let's go to sag. They call it Best Ensemble. That's their version of Best Picture. SAG has been around for 29 years. 15 of the 29 years of SAG. The winners that have won best ensemble, one best picture. You guys are numbers guys.
- [34:23]
Chad Millman
Not good.
- [34:24]
Michael Lasker
That's not good. That's 50. 50. That's not good at all. So now there's all kinds of, like, sub stats out there about, like, you know, people that are way smarter than me, that are, like, you know, well, the last time a movie only won X and Y and one SAG and one Best Picture, and, like, one of those was Coda. You know what I mean? So this has happened recently. The way I look at SAG ensemble, to be quite honest, is sometimes I think people are truly voting for an ensemble. You know, literally the word. And Conclave is an ensemble. You know, you've got, like nine people with major parts. Anora has four people in it, right? It has, you know, Mikey. It has the guy who was nominated, you know, The Russian, you know, guy that she has.
- [35:08]
Chad Millman
The Russian Timothy Chalamet.
- [35:10]
Michael Lasker
Right. Then it has the Russian Timothy Chalamet, the other guy, and then it has the older guy who I loved. I need to write their names down for future podcast appearances. But it's. It. It's a four person movie. I don't think people see it as an ensemble. So with all that said, there's only two movies really now that feel like they could win, and it's Anora and Conclave. There was a feeling on the day of the nominations, a complete unknown had a real chance. People thought because of the. The preferential ballot, that it could be so many people's ones, twos and threes. It could get there. I loved that movie, but I just don't feel like it's shown any real momentum in any of the other precursor awards. I never thought Wicked was going to win. Brutalist is completely faded, so it's a Nora and Conclave now. The funny thing about Conclave is that it is the quintessential older Academy movie, you know, and I. I talked to one Academy member that is in his 70s, like a month ago, and he was like, it's a process movie. And people in Hollywood love process movies because it's kind of like making a movie, you know, so it has a shot. Doesn't matter that it didn't get a Best Director nomination. Coda did not have a Best Director nomination and won Best picture. Argo in 2012 did not have a Best Director nomination, won Best Picture. Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, did not have a Best Director nomination, won Best Picture. Happens all the time. The Best Director race was unbelievably competitive this year. So what I was going to talk about earlier, and this is why I asked you, you know, Chad and Simon about could you vote during the show? So let's talk about Best editing. Okay. Pre 1999, usually the movie that won Best Picture also won Best Editing because there was a feeling that, like, if it's the best movie of the year, it was obviously the best edited film of the year because that means the movie is put together in the best possible way. If you look in the 90s, movies like Schindler's List, Dance of the Wolves, Unforgiven, Forest, Gump, you know, on and on and on. From 1999 until now, only nine films that have won Best Editing also won Best Picture. Right? So it doesn't correlate now at all. It did correlate the last two years. Oppenheimer won Best Editing and everything everywhere, all, all at once, won Best Editing. But what happens now a lot of times is best editing will go to maybe a more unique film. Like in 1999, it went to the Matrix, you know, So I might go to a movie that, like, really stood out for its editing. One year, one of the Bourne movies, I think the Supremacy, the second one, won best Editing. People remember those movies were edited in really cool ways, like how they did the fight scenes. So meanwhile, the five best Picture, the five best editing nominees are Emilia Perez, Conclave, Wicked, and Nora and the Brutalist. Okay, well, we know Emilia Perez is not winning Best Picture, and we don't think Wicked's winning Best Picture, and we don't think the Brutal is winning Best Picture. And what do you have left? Conclave and an aura. So here's my point. When you're watching the show on Sunday, if Conclave wins Best editing, assume it's probably winning Best Picture, you know, and by the way, that movie was edited. The editing was incredible. Now, I think the editing of a Nora was incredible, too. I think the movie was too long. I think most movies are too long today. But, you know, so I. You have to really. That can be a really strong precursor award. But going back up to Best Picture, I mean, I still will go with an aura, because I'm just going to go with the momentum. And I also think that if you are looking at the preferential system of, like, what's in the top one, twos and threes. You know, the movies I've heard anecdotally about from the most people that I talk to that are in the Academy are Anora, Brutalist and actually a complete unknown. Because one of the things that a complete unknown did, which you can imagine, I mean, you're not a boomer, Chad. You're. You're right after the Boomers, but the Boomers, right after, I would say, okay, 20 years after.
- [38:55]
Chad Millman
Long, long after.
- [38:56]
Michael Lasker
Okay, okay, okay.
- [38:57]
Chad Millman
Very long after.
- [38:58]
Michael Lasker
Okay, excuse me, but I'm telling you, the people, I had two clients in New York who went to one of the complete unknown Oscar screenings, and they were like, we were the youngest. These guys are both in their 40s. Like, we were actually a client and a friend, and they were like, we were 20 years younger than everybody in the room, and people went nuts. And as you know, and I felt this way. I felt this way about Elvis a couple years ago, which was that, what? And I like the movie Elvis, but I think why Elvis resonated with the Academy is that a quarter of the Academy was alive for Elvis Presley. And they were like, oh, my God, like, this is my childhood. This is when I was 20. This is when I was 30. I remember Elvis Presley. And I loved A Complete Unknown. I was so happy Mangold was nominated. And Monica Barbaro. I had them both on my nomination list that I made the night before. Like a nerd. And I thought the movie was great. I thought Mangold crushed it. And I think there is that feeling of, like, he went out and he recreated the Bob Dylan these four years that a lot of us know. And I talked to a friend of mine whose mother is a retired producer who's in the Academy, and she told me that her mother and her dad literally got out all their Bob Dylan albums, like, that week and, like, put them on the mantle, like, to kind of, like, pay respect, you know, back to Bob Dylan. So I would say to me, those are only three movies that really have a chance. I think the Brutalist is out. A lot of the other movies in the top 10, you know, from, you know, Nickel Boys to, you know, I'm Still Here, you know, to the substance. I mean, they were never going to win. So I think you have to go with an aura.
- [40:31]
Chad Millman
All right, then it's going to be a Nora. We're getting into a Nora, like, sweep category at this point.
- [40:39]
Michael Lasker
Well, that's, That's. That's where my head is at. I'm sorry to interrupt you. Is that.
- [40:42]
Chad Millman
No, no, go ahead.
- [40:43]
Michael Lasker
Is at the end of it, you'll be like, okay, a Nora, wonderful picture director, screenplay, actress, maybe picked up another one. And then you'll be like, okay, it won, like, four or five Oscars. And that will make sense because the other thing I was going to mention earlier is that which I touched on is that, you know, a lot of these Best Picture winners now, they win less than five Oscars. So, like, Oppenheimer and everything everywhere, each one seven. But then when you look back in the previous, you know, Several Years, Coda 1 3, Nomadland 1 3, Parasite 1 4, Green Book 1 3, Spotlight 1 2, Argo 1 3. So we're definitely still out of this, like, huge epic, you know, phase. I mean, if the Brutalist ended up being the dominating movie, that could have won like, seven, eight or nine. But it's just not meant to be. But I'm sorry I interrupted you.
- [41:27]
Chad Millman
Now, when you look back on history, Green Book, winning three Oscars is gonna be one of those years where you're like, what the were people thinking?
- [41:37]
Michael Lasker
It's a sweet movie. I liked Green Book.
- [41:39]
Chad Millman
It was fine. Totally fine. Simon the 2017 Academy Awards presentation featured one of the biggest live gaffes in the history of modern television. Many will remember that for the final category of the night, the incorrect winner was announced for best picture. This sent the entire broadcast into complete chaos, tarnished the reputation of the Academy and generally embarrassed people on the biggest stage. And there's something else that can send each of us into complete chaos. Something else that can tarnish our reputations. Simon Something else that can embarrass you on your biggest stage. Inferior, low quality underwear. That's why our beloved sponsor, Tommy John is here providing the red carpet treatment to every man and woman who wears their best in class underwear and their flexible, breathable collection of casual essentials. When I'm handed the envelope in the best underwear category, there's only one nominee on my card. It's Tommy John. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [42:50]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [42:52]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorite favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites Lasker chuckled at that, which was fun.
- [43:07]
Michael Lasker
Well, I actually thought you were going towards a piece of trivia and then the way you tied it into the underwear ad was incredible.
- [43:12]
Chad Millman
I can take no credit. It's all magic. And it's the first time I, I read these without having read them before. And so I am, I'm reading it. I'm learning the story as I go. It's like reading.
- [43:23]
Michael Lasker
It's why they feel so natural.
- [43:25]
Chad Millman
Yeah. As I go. And so it's so fun. I can't wait to see how it ends.
- [43:28]
Steph Curry
Make some noise for the greatest shooter of all time, Steph Curry. We went live from All Star weekend for our new podcast called Goat Greatest of their era. And we ranked our top five shooters from the 2000s.
- [43:42]
Peja Stojaković
Peja 5. Dirk Ford.
- [43:43]
Steph Curry
Peja is alone. Okay, okay.
- [43:44]
Michael Lasker
I'm mad him.
- [43:45]
Steph Curry
I left him off my list, but I still like my list. You won't believe who Steph left off his list.
- [43:52]
Peja Stojaković
That's so tough. That's why we tap these conversations.
- [43:54]
Steph Curry
Yes. Absolutely.
- [43:56]
Peja Stojaković
Love it.
- [43:56]
Steph Curry
Steph talked about what separates the truly elite NBA shooters.
- [44:00]
Peja Stojaković
When you have a scouting report and you're on the list as not just a shooter, but we have specific rules for how we guard you. There's a fear factor that's associated with anytime you're wide open. Like, you might as well just Count that and get on back on defense.
- [44:16]
Steph Curry
Listen to Goat G O T E greatest of their era on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [44:24]
Chad Millman
All right, Best actor, Timothy Chalamet.
- [44:26]
Michael Lasker
He just won sag. And. And then, let's see. I looked at my stats.
- [44:30]
Chad Millman
Okay, while you're looking at the stats, let me just give the answer, because while he won the SAG, Adrian Brody at the Brutalist, minus 225, Timothy Chalamet plus 140, Ray Finds, plus 1200. You know, everything sort of skyrockets from there, appropriately. So, look, Chalamet wants to do what Brody did, which is win it as the youngest person ever. As you mentioned, Brody did it. What was it, 25 years ago or whatever?
- [44:57]
Michael Lasker
Yeah, 2002.
- [44:58]
Chad Millman
Yeah, give it to us. Tell us what's going on.
- [45:01]
Michael Lasker
Well, look, I mean, again, what's interesting is that, you know, Chalmet hadn't won anything until Sunday night, and then he won the SAG award. Now, SAG since 2010, has gone 12 of 14 predicting best actor. The notable exceptions were Denzel Washington won for fences in 2016, as opposed to Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea. And then in 2020, Chadwick Boseman won for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom instead of Anthony Hopkins for the Father. Now, I had Anthony Hopkins winning that night at the Oscars, because if you watch Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, he really was the supporting person of that movie. And I actually thought, I don't think people are going to vote for him just because, unfortunately he tragically had passed away. So to me, I feel like looking. I mean, both of those from SAG were just sort of like, none of those made sense because even Denzel and Fences wasn't really contending as, like, maybe the runner up from Casey anyways in a lot of the other races that were being, you know, predicted that year back for in 2016. So it's pretty predictive. I mean, look, it's. It's so tricky because there's definitely this feeling of, like, Chalamet is our new Leo, and, like, let's make him work for it. Leo didn't win until he was nominated, I think in his fifth time in 2015 for the Revenant. But Chalamet, I mean, it's cool. I mean, he's a special, special actor. I think he's unbelievable in the movie. This. I. This is such a toss up. I mean, I think I would still lean Adrian just because he won so many of the early awards. And I think people think he's just so amazing in that movie. And I do think there's a little bit of a sense of like, Chalamet will be back so many more times. There was this weird narrative of like, you know, Adrian Brody already won for this exact same role in the Pianist, which. That's a very reductive thing to say just because they're both, you know, Jewish Holocaust survivors. He's amazing in the Brutalist. So I would still lean Brody, but it's another toss up.
- [46:55]
Chad Millman
Simon loves Timothy Cham.
- [46:58]
Michael Lasker
He's amazing.
- [46:59]
Simon Hunter
I do. I think it's. He's. He's in a rare spot where, like, he talked about Leo. Leo probably would have won if things were a little different in the 90s where it was really, you gotta earn it before you can get it. Where I feel like there's been a shift nowadays where, you know, someone like him, I feel like he has put in the work and movies. Do they need a movie star? Like, we need young movie stars. We're in this weird thing where, like, I love Michael B. Jordan. I thought he was gonna be the next one to step up. For people around my age, he kind of hasn't. And there's been this void still of someone to fill this void of the next Leo, Tom Cruise type. Like someone that, you know, like, there was. There's. There's stretches of different people. Like even Brad Pitt, I put on the same pedestal where Matt Damon too. They make a movie. I don't care what the movie is, I go and see it. And the, the. They think they know they need to start getting back to that with this younger generation because we have had some dead like, duds. Like, you know, I like Zac Efron. He's kind of a dud. He didn't really turn out to be the guy. Like, I love Iron Claw, but I had to beg people to go see that movie. They weren't going to see it simply because Zac Efron's in it. Where, you know, if that was the 90s or 80s and it's Tom Cruise in the Iron Claw, everyone's seen it, men and women. So, yeah, I think Timmy's in this cool spot of his range of Dune to then do a movie like this, right, where he can be the action star guy. And, you know, I just think it. He could pull the upset off here. Like, I love that he's a dog in this number. And I do think it's like after how he gave that speech at SAG where it's like, he's not backing away from it. He's leaning into it. Be like, I want to be great. I want to be the big guy. I do like that. I wonder your perception of it, is that going to hurt him or benefit him?
- [48:42]
Michael Lasker
Well, the thing is, the voting was. The voting was done on like February 20th. February 18th, though the voting closed like 10 days ago, so it doesn't really matter. I mean, look, I think honestly, for people that are betting on this, it's like, take Chalamet for best actor, take to me more for best Actress. Like, just hedge your bets. You know what I mean? Like, look, I, I thought Chalamet was unreal in that movie. I would be so happy if he wins. I don't know. This one is just like a complete, complete toss up. But you're right, he definitely has been annoyed. It is like he's going to be the next guy. But the SAG Awards are always pretty late. Somebody said that they were moved because of the LA fires. But yeah, I mean, they're, you know, the voting's been done, so. And look, I think Xiaomi, he was already doing so much press. I mean, he played himself as Bob Dylan on snl. Like, you know, he was leaving it all out on the, on the floor.
- [49:30]
Simon Hunter
He's dating. Dating a Jenner.
- [49:31]
Michael Lasker
Dating.
- [49:32]
Simon Hunter
Really? Going all in.
- [49:33]
Michael Lasker
Exactly.
- [49:34]
Chad Millman
I. I want to take Chalamet here. I love the. I thought the movie was amazing. Just, yeah, rush it. But again, I'm close to Boomer, so it's almost, it's almost my music. But I've never been a Bob Dylan guy and I watched that movie and then couldn't stop listening. You know, I was your friend's parents, like, just streaming Dylan non stop because he was so, so good in this movie. I also found him to be. And you know, I'm a sucker. So incredibly charming on his press tour, right?
- [50:11]
Michael Lasker
Oh, yeah.
- [50:12]
Chad Millman
Did College Game Day. He was amazing. And then the old stuff surfaced about what a huge Knicks fan he was and his sports knowledge. I mean, that connected with me. And then, so then it was just this guy who I want to hang out with and he happens to be a great actor and he's so freaking ambitious, which I loved. Simon, to your point, I loved that speech. And I like the way Adam Sandler says Timothy Chalamet, of course.
- [50:38]
Michael Lasker
No, he's. He's amazing. It would be very cool if he won. And I mean, Adrian Brody already has an Oscar. But yeah, I think because Adrian Brody won in 2002. You know, people, I was Talking to an Academy member yesterday, it's like, do you want to put Adrian Brody in the two timer Club as winning two Best after Oscars? But it's so far apart, I don't think people really think about it. And by the way, in this newer era, we've had a lot of people win two Oscars relatively fast. I mean, Emma Stone won two in 2016 and 2023. Christoph Waltz one two, 2009, 2012, Mursha Ali won to 2016, 2018. I mean, like it's happening kind of faster. I don't think people care about that stuff as much anymore. It's a total toss up. I, I mean I literally might change my mind at like 4 o'clock on Sunday when I like finish doing my ballot at my house.
- [51:25]
Chad Millman
You know, Oscars are practically a participation trophy now. The way they're just giving away. They don't even have standards anymore. Best Adapted Screenplay, conclave, runaway here -11.
- [51:36]
Michael Lasker
Has to be relatively weak category. The other thing too, going back to Best Actor for one second, just again thinking about what happens the next day. One thing that's happened recently with the Academy Awards is every year there have been some major, major movies with like 10 or 11 nominations to get nothing. Notably Killers of Flower Moon, Irishman, Banshees of Inisherin Tar, Like Tar and Banshees each had nine nominations, got zero. So Complete Unknown has eight nominations. Like don't be surprised if it wins zero Oscars. Like that's just how it, how it shakes out sometimes now. But back to Adapted. Yeah, Conclave has been the Runaway, you know, favorite for this, you know, non stop, you know, the entire narrative the entire year. I don't see why it wouldn't win. You can't go off the WGAs. It's very confusing because think about the WGAs. They only nominate WGA scripts. And a lot of these movies get nominated for Oscars are written by foreign non American writers who are not in the wga. So I don't think Conclave was even eligible at the WGA's. The brutalist wasn't eligible, blah, blah, blah, blah. So the Conclave is going to win. I don't see anything upsetting it. I can't ever. I mean, I know like Complete Unknown was nominated. I'm forgetting. Oh nickel boys. That's not going to win. Yeah, I'm forgetting the other two nominations.
- [52:51]
Chad Millman
Amelia Perez and Not gonna win.
- [52:53]
Michael Lasker
And Sing Sing. Yeah, not gonna win the Sing Sing nomination. I loved Sing Sing. I was bummed it wasn't nominated for Best Picture. That was definitely a way of nominating the guys behind that movie to, like, show them some love, but it's not going to win.
- [53:05]
Chad Millman
This does feel like the award that is Conclave's consolation. Right? Like, it's. It's sort of second place in a lot of different categories, and this is the one. Everyone can be like, oh, yeah, but.
- [53:17]
Michael Lasker
But, but how about this? What if Conclave wins Best Editing, Best Adaptive Screenplay, and Best Picture with no Director nomination? You know, that would be tantamount to a little movie called Argo.
- [53:28]
Chad Millman
I was just gonna say that feels Argo.
- [53:30]
Michael Lasker
That's Argo. You know, so it's possible. It's completely, completely possible. And it's. That's why it's fun. And that's, you know, the. The new preferential balloting they do is really interesting. And Conclave could win. You know, the BAFTAs are to be taken seriously because the Academy has gotten very international, has a much more international voting body. Although I think the producers of Conclave were British. And so you could argue because it won Best British Film and it won Best Film at bafta. So, you know, maybe it won because it was kind of the hometown favorite a little bit. You know, I don't know. I really liked it. If it wins, I'll be okay with that. I think there's parts of Conclave that.
- [54:11]
Chad Millman
Are incredible banshees of insurance, by the way.
- [54:14]
Michael Lasker
You know, you. You're. You're on the record. You loved Banshee. Sharon.
- [54:17]
Chad Millman
I thought that was as good a examination of the price of success, the price of a life like that was.
- [54:27]
Michael Lasker
Well, it was about you and Simon. It was. I mean, you saw you and Simon's relationship reflected between. Brian.
- [54:32]
Chad Millman
Simon has told me so many times, if I keep talking to him, just going to start cutting off body parts.
- [54:37]
Michael Lasker
Exactly.
- [54:37]
Chad Millman
He can't fathom wasting any more time when there is real stuff to be done.
- [54:43]
Michael Lasker
Correct.
- [54:44]
Chad Millman
Best Supporting Actress.
- [54:47]
Michael Lasker
Both of these are locked. I mean, not to, you know, they're locked. Zoe Salon.
- [54:51]
Chad Millman
She was the pick. When you and I spoke like she was. The odds on she and the Emilia.
- [54:54]
Michael Lasker
Perez controversy did not affect her on any level for the obvious reasons of. She's great in the movie, she's beloved in the business. It's kind of a weak category this year, and people are not that, you know, mean. They're not going to, like, hold that against her. She's. She's getting up there, and she has played her press and speeches post the controversy perfectly. She's. She's winning.
- [55:16]
Chad Millman
She was so Good in that movie.
- [55:19]
Michael Lasker
Yeah.
- [55:20]
Chad Millman
The way she danced that, that scene when they're at that dinner, you know, there's thousands of people there and she is dancing in the middle of the tables. Like, her movement is great. Her voice is amazing. She speaks Spanish so much in the movie. Like, she was tremendous. This is a no brainer. Lock it in. She's minus 3,000. No discussion. Yeah. So then the question is, as you just said, best supporting actor, Kieran Culkin in a real pain. He's minus 5,000. He's been winning everything.
- [55:58]
Michael Lasker
He's a. He's a lock as well. Look, I think in both categories, you could do fun upsets if you want to try to make some money. Going back to supporting actress, I did talk to academy member last week who not only told me they were voting for Isabel Rossellini, but also were like, oh, yeah, she's winning. It's kind of the same thing as Demi Moore. It's like a career Oscar. I do not think she's going to win, but maybe if you wanted to find like a fun upset. And I think in supporting actor, the. There's two upsets to be had because Kieran obviously seems to be winning. One would be Yuri Borisov from Anora, if you want to go the full Anora, like, sweep. But the other one, the performance that everybody talks about in Hollywood, is Jeremy Strong.
- [56:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [56:39]
Michael Lasker
And when you think about the fact that Sebastian Stan was also nominated shows you some real love for that movie. And Jeremy Strong's just having one of those moments where people are like, no one quite knows what to make of him. He seems really weird. But he's a hell of an actor. And don't be surprised. I mean, be hysterical because him and Kieran obviously were on a show together for four years and, you know, have whatever relationship they have. I don't know, they both seem odd, frankly. But. But Kieran probably is going to win. In the last 10, 15 years, for better or worse, the supporting categories calcify really early. And I can barely remember upsets. You know, I'd have to think about it, but there's very, very, very few upsets that come to mind.
- [57:23]
Chad Millman
Isabella Rossellini and Conclave Plus 2000. I feel like she had five lines in the movie.
- [57:30]
Michael Lasker
I agree.
- [57:31]
Chad Millman
That wasn't a supporting actor in any sense. She. She was like, you know, a cameo.
- [57:41]
Michael Lasker
Yeah, I completely, completely agree with you. And I was. I actually didn't even have her on my nomination ballot, you know, but like Felicity, you know, Jones never really took flight. Ariana Grande never took flight. And who. The fifth one would have. Who's the fifth one of that category.
- [57:56]
Chad Millman
Was.
- [57:59]
Michael Lasker
Monica Barbara, who I love, but again, not. I mean, her nomination is the win.
- [58:05]
Chad Millman
Yes. I feel like. I feel like she was great, but it, you know, it's not like maybe a lot of people could have done that part, and she just happened to be really good at that part. Zoe Saldana. I don't know anyone else who could have done this part like she was. She's put her stamp on it. She was brilliant. It was her.
- [58:26]
Michael Lasker
She was the. The interesting thing about Monica Barbaro, I was talking to Fred Berger, the nominated producer of A Complete Unknown, who's a really good friend of mine, and I was sitting next to him at a wedding at the end of the Christmas break, and right as the movie is kind of surging, and I was just peppering him with a gazillion questions. And a lot of this has been in the press now. I mean, Monica, I don't think she actually could sing when they cast her. They. I mean, she could carry a tune. They must have been able to suggest that somehow, but they had to teach her to be able to sing like that. And they ended up, you know, had they all these shutdowns with COVID and so forth. And I mean, she's amazing in the movie. I thought she was just incredible.
- [59:05]
Chad Millman
Also great in Top Gun Maverick. She.
- [59:08]
Michael Lasker
Amazing. I was flying back, flying back from New York last weekend. I rewatched the final scene of Top Gun Maverick about four times in a row. Fail. Tears every time.
- [59:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [59:20]
Michael Lasker
When he says, thank you for saving my life. And then Miles Teller says, it's what my father would have done. And it's so brilliant because he. He saved his life technically by rescuing him, but he saved his life by giving him purpose. It's an incredible movie.
- [59:34]
Chad Millman
It's a dude. I've seen it so many times. I've made my kid watch it probably four times, and I've made him watch the original Top Gun, which I still love. It's much slower than. It's interesting. You watch movies now. Like, my kid was sick last week, and so we ended up watching a bunch of movies together. We did, like, the. We did Meet the Parents, and then we did. We did Wedding Crashers and like, even the difference between those two movies as comedies with just a few years between them, the pacing is different. Right. And so one of the nights, I just happened to watch all the Right Moves with Tom Cruise from 1983.
- [60:20]
Michael Lasker
Sure.
- [60:20]
Chad Millman
Tom Cruise and Leah Thompson, right. My wife was out of town this weekend, so like, and I don't have any friends, so I was just watching a lot of movies and like all the Right Moves was on, you know, Amazon prime in the first row. So I watched it. It's so. And I was going to call my kid up from the basement and play in 2K to come watch it with me. And it's so slow. I'm like, he'll walk out in two seconds. It's a great. I loved it, but it is so slow.
- [60:48]
Michael Lasker
Well, there's all these movies from that era where like the first acts are 40 minutes long and like, yeah, I mean, people today, granted, we're making really long movies right now, but people just would not, they just wouldn't get how much time. But then, you know, there are actual, there's funny examples. I'd have to clock it. But if you go back and watch Tootsie, I think it's like minute nine when he's the woman, you know, he has, he goes to lunch with Sidney Pollock and Sidney Pollock is like, you're busted. Nobody likes working with you. You gotta like shake it up hard. Cut to him walking down the street of New York dressed as Dorothy Michaels. And you just buy it because, you know, he's an actor. You know, he has access to makeup.
- [61:24]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [61:24]
Michael Lasker
And hair and that. And that's it. And they, and it's one of the fastest buy ins for a movie ever, you know. But yeah, a lot of those movies, they, they take their time. So anyways, I mean, look, as you guys know, it's a, it's a great year. I mean, I thought it was a great year for movies. There's, it's going to be really spread around on Sunday and there's still like a lot of surprises to come. It's exciting.
- [61:45]
Chad Millman
It is exciting. Michael Lasker, you are a super powerful manager at Mosaic and so we appreciate you coming on the Favorites podcast to waste your time with us.
- [61:57]
Michael Lasker
Simon, I love wasting my time.
- [61:59]
Chad Millman
Is going to chop off all those fingers after probably the next few episodes of talking to me. So this was a good respite for him.
- [62:06]
Michael Lasker
You guys didn't, you didn't even give me any trivia this time.
- [62:09]
Chad Millman
Matt Mitchell, do we have any trivia?
- [62:11]
Michael Lasker
I mean, Michael, we know you're a savant.
- [62:14]
Chad Millman
Our listeners know your savant. The Hollywood Reporter knows you're a powerful and influential savant.
- [62:20]
Michael Lasker
Sure. So, so powerful.
- [62:21]
Simon Hunter
I didn't, I didn't make you.
- [62:23]
Chad Millman
We didn't need to wheel out that parlor Trick.
- [62:25]
Michael Lasker
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
- [62:26]
Chad Millman
I'll ask you one thing. I'll ask you one thing.
- [62:28]
Michael Lasker
Oh, I hope I get it right.
- [62:29]
Chad Millman
And this is. This is more of an opinion to see if you can match sort of my perspective on pop culture.
- [62:36]
Michael Lasker
Yes.
- [62:38]
Chad Millman
Earlier in the show, we mentioned Green Book as a movie. I think it's. Should not have won three Oscars. Should not have won. I think it won Best Picture that year. Should not have won. Can you name what's in my head as the other movie that, looking back, is on the wrong side of history, and given the competition and how those movies have played out historically over the past, say, 25 years, should not have won Best Picture, but did win because of the marketing might of a certain studio.
- [63:14]
Michael Lasker
Well, you have to be referring to Shakespeare in Love.
- [63:16]
Chad Millman
Shakespeare in Love. Michael Lasker, you have won again.
- [63:20]
Michael Lasker
I mean, it's funny. People talk about all the time, Harvey, who's in prison for life, where he should be. He changed it forever. I was talking to an exec who worked at miramax in the mid-90s, and she was telling me she was like an assistant. This was the year of Il Postina, which is a very beautiful Italian film, that Miramax got a best picture and director and actor nomination, that the actor had died, Massimo Teresi, and he was nominated posthumously for Best Actor. And she was like. It was like, basically, Harvey ran the campaigns, like, political campaigns, and they would get the numbers of all the Academy members, and all these assistants would sit in a room and they would dial up. There was no cell phones. They would dial people up at home. They'd say, have you watched El Postino? Can I tell you all about it? Blah, blah, blah, blah. And he just completely changed the face of campaigning. I don't think. I don't really think that people. Like. I don't think there's, like, you know, people are actually trying to hurt people. Like when that AI thing came out about, like, how they altered Adrian Brody's voice for some of the foreign language in Brutalists. I don't think that's like a plant. I don't think, you know, people have been wondering, like, was it a rival movie that dug up the. The tweets from the star, Amelia Perez? No, I. I don't believe any of that. But everything just obviously is more amplified than it's ever been now. And, yeah, I mean, people look back at Shakespeare in Love. But the thing is, and I love Saving Private Ryan, but when it. When it lost, even in that moment, I reconciled that, like, well, let's let's break the movie down. Like, it's the greatest first act in the history of movies, basically. And then it is really strong. But, like, I don't remember actually feeling that. Like, I mean, I like the third act a lot, you know, when they have to, like, defend, you know, the bridge and everything. But I don't remember actually thinking in the end, the movie was like, perfect. Shakespeare in Love and Chad and I. You're old enough as am I. I was in college. That movie really knocked people that took people by storm. It was so clever and the acting was incredible and the writing was incredible and the way it kind of created this amalgamation of where all the stories came from. So, like, I don't personally think. I thought you were going to say crash, because people talk about crash beating broke.
- [65:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's another one.
- [65:31]
Michael Lasker
I don't think Shakespeare love is that bad. There are worse Oscar winners than Shakespeare in Love. I mean, in that movie, it ended up winning the most Oscars of the night because it won actress, supporting actress, best picture, best original screenplay. And it won some, like, below the line stuff. So I think Sam Pryor won four and they won five or something like that. So I don't think it was so controversial. What's controversial is it was the beginning of Harvey being a terrorist and kind of willing his might on people. And, you know, you want to have a controversial the Artist, Another Harvey Weinstein special wins best picture in 2011, right over movies like the Descendants and other good movies that year. And like, have you. Has anybody ever talked about the Artist ever again? Picture, director, actor, like, that was a Harvey Weinstein special.
- [66:20]
Chad Millman
I had just had my first grandkid when Shakespeare in Love came out.
- [66:27]
Michael Lasker
You know, you have a baby face.
- [66:29]
Chad Millman
Because I'm old. I'm old. Simon, that was the joker. You're the best, brother. Thanks for coming on.
- [66:35]
Michael Lasker
So wonderful seeing you guys. Let's compare notes on Sunday and Monday and, you know, happy, happy. Betting to your. To your audience.
- [66:41]
Chad Millman
We will. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. Download from Spotify Apple Pods. Wherever you get your pods rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [67:53]
Steph Curry
Make some noise for the greatest shooter of all time, Steph Curry. We went live from All Star Weekend for a new podcast called Go Greatest of Their Era, and we ranked our top five shooters from the 2000s.
- [68:06]
Peja Stojaković
Peja 5 Dirk Ford.
- [68:08]
Steph Curry
Peja is a loot. You won't believe who Steph left off his list.
- [68:11]
Peja Stojaković
That's so tough. That's why we have these conversations.
- [68:14]
Steph Curry
Yes, absolutely.
- [68:15]
Peja Stojaković
Love it.
- [68:15]
Steph Curry
Listen to Go T E Greatest of Their Era on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.