Podcast Summary: The Favorites - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
• Episode: The Favorites - Academy Awards Betting Preview with Michael Lasker
• Release Date: February 27, 2025
• Description: The Favorites podcast, presented by bet365, offers insightful discussions and betting previews for the Academy Awards, featuring expert analysis from Michael Lasker, a renowned Hollywood insider and Academy Awards savant.

I. Introduction of Episode and Guest

Chad Millman welcomes listeners to the episode, expressing excitement for the annual Academy Awards discussion. He introduces his co-host, Simon Hunter, and special guest, Michael Lasker, a top talent manager at Mosaic in Los Angeles and recognized as one of the 40 most powerful people in comedy by the Hollywood Reporter.

• Chad Millman [01:02]:

  "He’s our favorite kind of sicko. He’s Michael Lasker. Welcome back to the show, Lasker."

Michael Lasker acknowledges the introduction and humorously addresses an outdated accolade mentioned by Chad.

• Michael Lasker [01:58]:

  "Thank you. It's great to be back with you guys. Thanks, Chad. Thanks, Simon."

II. Best Actress Race: Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison

The discussion begins with the Best Actress category, highlighting the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez from "Amelia Perez," who effectively removed herself from contention through self-sabotaging tweets.

• Michael Lasker [06:53]:

  "It was a very weird classic Hollywood meltdown that the entire town watched in real time."

Current Odds:

• Demi Moore: -300
• Mikey Madison: +165

Lasker's Analysis: Lasker emphasizes that precursor awards like SAG have limited correlation with the Oscars due to the vast number of Academy voters. He notes that from 2010 to present, 10 of the 14 SAG Best Actress winners aligned with the Oscar winner.

• Michael Lasker [07:58]:

  "10 of 14 winners for SAG Best Actress then correlated to the Oscar winner. So that's pretty decent."

He argues that Mikey Madison has garnered strong momentum despite being younger, and contrasts her with the more established yet potentially career-based contender, Demi Moore.

• Chad Millman [12:20]:

  "Demi Moore is the significantly more famous actor in this case."

Conclusion: Lasker opts for Mikey Madison as the likely winner, citing her strong performances and rising career trajectory.

• Michael Lasker [12:20]:

  "This one is such an amazing race. I am going to go with Mikey Madison."

III. Best Director Race: Sean Baker vs. Brady Corbett

The conversation shifts to Best Director, focusing on Sean Baker of "Anora" and Brady Corbett of "Brutalist." Lasker praises Baker's independent filmmaking approach and resilience despite mixed receptions of "Brutalist."

Current Odds:

• Sean Baker: -185
• Brady Corbett: +125

Lasker's Insights: Baker is celebrated for his artistic integrity and consistent quality in his projects, making him a strong contender despite not winning major predecessors.

• Michael Lasker [18:03]:

  "Sean Baker is an artist. You know, he’s just going to go make his next story."

He also touches on Brady Corbett's struggles with maintaining momentum after industry setbacks.

• Michael Lasker [18:03]:

  "He just continues to look like a very precious, unselfaware director."

Conclusion: Lasker supports Sean Baker for Best Director, highlighting his respected status among Academy voters.

• Michael Lasker [20:57]:

  "I think you have to go for Shawn Baker for Director right now."

IV. Best Original Screenplay: Anora vs. Substance

Chad Millman introduces the Best Original Screenplay category, comparing "Anora" (+230) against "Substance" (+280), with a third contender, Jesse Eisenberg's film, trailing at +750.

Lasker's Analysis: Lasker appreciates both films but leans towards "Anora" for its dynamic narrative and strong character development. He contrasts the societal themes in "Substance" with the more personal storytelling in "Anora."

• Michael Lasker [23:12]:

  "It felt like someone from this age wrote a piece of their life into a good, actual movie with actual good characters."

Conclusion: Anora is favored to win Best Original Screenplay due to its compelling narrative and character arcs.

• Chad Millman [23:12]:

  "We’re going with Anora and Sean Baker for Best Director."

V. Best Picture: Anora vs. Conclave

Chad Millman outlines the Best Picture race between "Anora" (-300) and "Conclave" (+215), with "Brutalist" and "A Complete Unknown" also in contention but considered less likely to win.

Current Odds:

• Anora: -300
• Conclave: +215

Lasker's Insights: Lasker discusses the historical correlation between Best Picture and other precursor awards, noting that Anora has won multiple categories including PGA, DGA, WGA, and Critics Choice, making it a strong contender.

• Michael Lasker [31:09]:

  "I think you have to go with Anora because it would be surprising to me that, like, substance or real pain is winning that."

He contrasts "Conclave" as a process-driven film that, while technically proficient, may lack the emotional resonance typically favored by Academy voters.

• Michael Lasker [32:02]:

  "I think the movie was too long. I think most movies are too long today."

Conclusion: Lasker predicts "Anora" to win Best Picture, driven by its strong performance in multiple categories and favorable odds.

• Chad Millman [40:31]:

  "All right, then it's going to be Anora. We're getting into a sweep category at this point."

VI. Best Actor Race: Timothy Chalamet vs. Adrian Brody

The Best Actor category features Timothy Chalamet (+140) and Adrian Brody (-225) for their roles in "Brutalist."

Current Odds:

• Adrian Brody: -225
• Timothy Chalamet: +140
• Ray Finds: +1200

Lasker's Analysis: Lasker acknowledges Chalamet's rising star and strong performance but leans towards Brody due to his previous Oscar win and the profound impact of his role.

• Michael Lasker [44:29]:

  "I think I would still lean Adrian just because he won so many of the early awards."

Conclusion: While recognizing Chalamet's potential, Lasker favors Adrian Brody as the more likely winner based on his track record and current performance.

• Chad Millman [46:57]:

  "Simon loves Timothy Cham."

VII. Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana vs. Emilia Perez

Chad Millman introduces the Best Supporting Actress race featuring Zoe Saldana and Emilia Perez.

Current Odds:

• Zoe Saldana: Locked as the favorite
• Emilia Perez: Controversial due to self-sabotaging actions

Lasker's Insights: Despite the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez, Lasker asserts that Zoe Saldana remains the clear favorite due to her exceptional performance and positive reception within the industry.

• Michael Lasker [54:46]:

  "This is a no brainer. Lock it in. She's -3000. No discussion."

Conclusion: Zoe Saldana is confidently expected to win Best Supporting Actress, with Lasker dismissing any impact from Perez's controversy.

• Chad Millman [55:19]:

  "She was so good in that movie... So, this is a no brainer. Lock it in."

VIII. Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin vs. Others

The Best Supporting Actor category highlights Kieran Culkin (-5000) as the dominant favorite, with potential upsets from Yuri Borisov ("Anora") and Jeremy Strong.

Current Odds:

• Kieran Culkin: -5000
• Yuri Borisov: Potential upset
• Jeremy Strong: Potential upset

Lasker's Analysis: Lasker acknowledges Culkin's strong position but opens the door for possible upsets due to unpredictable voting patterns in supporting categories.

• Michael Lasker [55:16]:

  "Kieran probably is going to win in the last 10, 15 years, for better or worse."

Conclusion: While Kieran Culkin is the clear favorite, Lasker suggests that upsets are possible, though unlikely.

• Chad Millman [55:19]:

  "So then the question is, as you just said, Best Supporting Actress, Kieran Culkin in a real pain. He's -5000."

IX. Additional Discussions and Insights

Best Adapted Screenplay: Lasker touches on "Conclave" as a strong contender but notes that its lack of a Director nomination complicates its Best Picture chances.

Voting Dynamics: The conversation delves into how various awards correlate with the Oscars, emphasizing the unpredictability and the unique nature of Academy voting, which often diverges from precursor awards.

Historical Context: Lasker references past Oscar anomalies, such as "Green Book", and discusses how certain films win fewer categories to maintain a balanced Oscar distribution.

• Chad Millman [41:36]:

  "It's a sweet movie. I liked Green Book."

Championing Independent Filmmakers: Both hosts express admiration for independent filmmakers like Sean Baker, valuing artistic integrity over mainstream success.

• Michael Lasker [54:50]:

  "She's amazing in the movie. This is another good moment."

X. Conclusion

The episode closes with Chad Millman and Simon Hunter wrapping up their discussions, reinforcing their support for the favorites they've analyzed, and inviting listeners to participate in their betting strategies.

• Chad Millman [66:34]:

  "Michael Lasker, you are a super powerful manager at Mosaic and so we appreciate you coming on the Favorites podcast to waste your time with us."

Final Thoughts: The hosts reiterate the excitement surrounding the Oscars, acknowledging the potential surprises and affirming their commitment to providing insightful betting previews for their audience.

• Chad Millman [66:41]:

  "We will. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365."

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Lasker [07:58]:

  "10 of 14 winners for SAG Best Actress then correlated to the Oscar winner. So that's pretty decent."

• Chad Millman [12:20]:

  "Demi Moore is the significantly more famous actor in this case."

• Michael Lasker [23:12]:

  "It felt like someone from this age wrote a piece of their life into a good, actual movie with actual good characters."

• Michael Lasker [55:16]:

  "Kieran probably is going to win in the last 10, 15 years, for better or worse."

Timestamp Highlights:

• Introduction of Guest: [01:02]
• Best Actress Discussion: [06:35]
• Best Director Analysis: [12:20]
• Best Original Screenplay Insights: [21:52]
• Best Actor Race: [44:26]
• Supporting Categories: [54:46]
• Historical Oscar Context: [65:31]

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the podcast episode, capturing the critical analyses, predictions, and dynamic discussions surrounding the 2025 Academy Awards, making it valuable for listeners and those interested in Oscar betting strategies.