Loading summary
Transcript85 lines
- [00:00]
Chad Millman
Okay.
- [00:01]
Simon Hunter
Have you heard about this? Last year, Degree changed the formula for their Cool Rush deodorant. Their fans rebelled and wanted the old scent back. And Degree listened. That doesn't happen often.
- [00:10]
Evan
They admitted that they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason it's the number one men's antiperspirant and is back in Walmart, Target and other stores for under $4.
- [00:27]
Simon Hunter
So try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local stores to try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.
- [00:42]
Mike Conte
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our second day in a row. The rare twofer to doublehead. Are talking about the NFL draft today. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:06]
Chad Millman
Just talking football in May, Chad. Nothing better, brother.
- [01:09]
Mike Conte
How good is that? That's how much we love it and how much we miss it. We're doing two back to back shows about the NFL draft. We don't even do back to back shows about the super bowl, but we're going back to back the draft. Yesterday we did the nfc. Today we are doing the afc. And here's what's interesting to me. It's, it's more of an indication of what the public, the market, everybody thinks about the differences between the AFC and the nfc. In the nfc, there was one team that was minus money to win their division. That was the super bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. In the afc there are three teams that are minus money to win their division, including the super bowl runner up Kansas City Chiefs, including the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills. Who have the longest odds of any team or the shortest odds of any team? I'm sorry, it's really like yeah, the shortest odds. They have the largest discrepancy of any team to win their division at minus 275. So we're going to get into the AFC breakdowns today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365, a new bet365. Customers get a $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 and place the bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call off in Iowa terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, so we dug deep on a lot of the storylines yesterday. Today we're going to go right to the teams, and I do want to start Simon with the Buffalo Bills minus 275 at bet365 to win their division. Before we came on, you know, there were radio hosts in Buffalo who were giving Brandon, being the Bills gm, a hard time because they didn't go after a receiver. And he basically threw up his hands and was like, what do you guys want me to do? We averaged 30 points a game last year. Like, I think I know what I'm doing when it comes to building the offense.
- [03:58]
Unknown
I was just listening to the last few minutes of your show before I came on. Waiting on your. All right, sounds like 2018 all over with you guys.
- [04:05]
Mike Conte
Well, we're very. How so?
- [04:07]
Unknown
Well, you guys were bitching in 2018 about Josh Allen. You guys wanted Josh Rosen, and now you guys are bitching that we don't have a receiver. I don't get it. We just scored 30 points in a row for eight straight games a year ago. I get you guys asking why we didn't have receivers, but I don't understand it now. You just saw us lead the league in points. When you add all the postseason, no one scored more points.
- [04:31]
Mike Conte
I love that. He was basically came, came out and said, fuck you guys. Like you don't know what the hell you're talking about. They drafted the cornerback Maxwell Hairston, in the first round from Kentucky, who, to me, was my favorite player in the draft because he was the guy who was the last person that dapped up every single player who got drafted ahead of him in the green room. And then he finally got drafted at the end of the first round. So I was just happy for him because he seemed like a sweetheart of a guy.
- [05:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'll piggyback off that. Good for Brandon Bean to be flexing his muscle. He's a guy that, you know, last year we thought they would be a borderline playoff team. And, you know, I talked a ton about, you know, the fact that they had so much dead cap. I couldn't believe how much dead cap they had and how hard that is to overcome when you're trying to build out a team. Like, you're going against teams that don't have $70 million in dead cap. And I said the following year they'll use that money and attack the defense. They did in a different way. Right. He's re signed a bunch of guys that they are kind of paying ahead of time, just getting it lined up right for their defense. And then he went out and just drafted a ton ton of defense and I love that move because you know, their offense didn't fail them last year. They shouldn't have been giving up so many points to that chief's offense. Like that to me was very alarming and that was a reason for them to attack the defense in this offseason. And you know, the fact that they've paid starters they trust for the future and they've gone out defensively in this draft and really attacked it. I love it. So you know, minus 275. Chad, we don't bet those type of numbers around here. So if you want to do what I love doing, like, you know, the Chiefs are a big number. You parlay these divisional teams together and you kind of, you know, if you want to choose the Bills to be an anchor, you can go for it. There's a team coming up. We'll talk about that. I think might give them a little bit of a run for their money here in this division this upcoming season. So yeah, 275. I think it's warranted, but I wouldn't touch that straight up.
- [06:27]
Mike Conte
I wonder if you and I are thinking about the same team. It is not the team that has the second shortest odds to win the division in the Miami Dolphins, who are -5.50 at bet3.6 5. Their first pick was Kenneth Grant, the defensive tackle from Michigan. They're one of their last picks. I think it might have been. Their last pick was. No, their second to last pick was Quinn Ewers, the quarterback from Texas in. In the seventh round. But kind of unspectacular as a draft. It didn't feel like they did a ton of things that were going to take them from that. That team that was mediocre and really can do nothing without TUA to being a team that can challenge the Bills or a team I think could be on their heels in the AFC East.
- [07:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think we all view the Dolphins window as closed and it's tough to say. I know they don't want to hear it, but it felt like that when he, you know, when TUA came onto the scene and they kind of had this offense built around him with Tyreek and Waddle and they were explosive. You know, two years ago, that was the team. And every year it feels like they've gotten worse. Right. Losing Fangs to the Eagles as a coach, that was a big deal. Their defense just simply was not as good as it was the year before. And, you know, this year, I like the moves in the draft, the fact they wouldn't got a D tackle their first pick from Michigan. Right. And who knows if Grant's gonna be a stub. That's. That's a good pick. That's a safe pick. Then you pick 37, you get a guard. Okay, that's fine. They didn't pick again till 143. So this is like another team that, like, they just didn't really have the picks because they've traded so much in previous years. And now we're kind of seeing it. The fact that they've paid their quarterback one, crazy money, the two wide receivers, crazy money. There's nothing left throughout the team. This is just a thin team across the board. So, yeah, I think we're on the same page. Plus 5,50. I wouldn't bet this. This should be closer to plus 600 plus 6,50 than it is. So to me, Miami, you're. I'm with Chad. I think they're the third, fourth team in this division.
- [08:33]
Mike Conte
Well, in that plus 650 range, the new England Patriots. And that is interesting to me. You. And I love Vrabel. He has historically been a coach that we always want to bet on, really performs well as an underdog. He is Belichickian in his understanding of the rules and how to take advantage of them and how to squeeze every single opportunity out of the most strategic moments of a game. And then they go out and do the smart thing. They draft Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from lsu, with the fourth overall pick, and then they get a guy that a lot of people love, Travion Henderson. In the second round, they're running back from Ohio State. So all of a sudden, they're starting to build a little bit and support Drake May, who was just a baller last year. So you bring in a guy with an attitude like Vrabel, who brings structure to the organization and. And then start building infrastructure around Drake May, and this team just gets much better. To me, I think they're. They're. They're better just by virtue of who's in the building.
- [09:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'll just start at the top of saying that as a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that all fan bases of football want them to have 20, 30, 40 years of just. Hell, I want you guys to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible. I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots. That being said, I love the hiring Rabel. We both agree, we think Drake May has a ton of upside, a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them to win this division is because of the year two jump. That's something we see time and time again where a guy comes in year one and it's on an awful team and it looks awful and they're a bad team. We've seen if they can get the right type of talent in the door, the right coaching staff in the door and they can build it out. There is a year two jump and a possibility of that. And at this number plus 650, plus 700. A lot of books have the Patriots known as division. We'll take that number. But like we said at the top, there's a reason the bills are minus 275. Like they are so far ahead of this Patriots team. We would need a major, major jump from Drake May and we need a defense to go to another level. Like Chad just said, they basically went offensive tackle, running back, wide receiver, center. Those are their first four picks. So they've kind of said, okay, we'll address the defense down the road either in free agency or in next year's draft. This year we're going to put an emphasis on trying to put Drake May in a better position than he was in the previous season. So I, I do really like that. If you're a Patriots fan, you have to be happy with this draft even if you don't love Will Campbell at that spot. Right? Why wouldn't you trade back to pick 10 with the Bears or whoever was offering you a pick at that spot to take someone else, another, another offensive lineman. You know, you probably would have the same value there just because all those offensive line at the top of this draft are kind of all the same, right? They're all really good high level offensive linemen with a little bit of weaknesses here and there that can make them never be an all pro. And that's. That was kind of the whole deal heading to this draft. So I get why people are like, they reach a little bit on Campbell. That could be true. But I think at the end of the day it was variables guy. No one was offering them good enough pick to get up to pick four. And you know, to me they, they nailed this draft. So yeah, I think we're on the same page. Chad Value to me right now for this division it's got to be this Patriots team.
- [12:00]
Mike Conte
What a difference a year makes. Simon that when the jets had Aaron Rodgers, we were all in on them being the challenger brand to the Buffalo to the Buffalo Bills. The jets are now 14 to 1 to win the division. No faith in Justin Fields. The operators are saying the public has they drafted an offensive tackle, might have reached for a guy at the seventh overall pick in the first round. They probably needed some weapons, specifically a tight end. People thought they might take Tyler Warren with that pick. Instead they got a tight end in the second round. Not a ton of sort of enthusiasm or hope coming out of this draft.
- [12:51]
Chad Millman
No. And you know, part of me wants to throw a little penny on this 14 to 1 because it is such an insane number and anything could happen, right? Josh Allen could go down, Tua could go down. Like there could be a bunch of different injuries this division. Drake May could fan out and all of a sudden the jets somehow see this division 8, 9 and 8. And you had great value on bed number 14 to 1. The hardest part for me, Chad, is Justin Fields and we talk all the time in football, the quarterback position. Yes. People can make up a million reasons why he never won in his career that the, the Bears failed him, yada, yada, yada. But you see it time and time again. Some of these guys just can't turn it around without the perfect scenario. And this doesn't feel like the perfect scenario for, for him, Justin Fields walking to this jets team. It still feels like a dysfunctional organization that starts at the top with their ownership and then works all the way down. So yeah, first year head coach and you know, Aaron Glenn's already in the news because he's getting from how he dealt with Aaron Rodgers and all this other stuff. So this is just not a Jets team I want to invest in. I think you're on the same page. Like it's, it's a team I assume is trying to get a top five, top ten pick next year in the draft. Like that's how they're kind of building this team out. So the books very telling having them at 141 right now in this division. So yeah, it's, it's great. Draft. Like we'll get to the draft real quick. You know, the fact that you guys went tackle, tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, like they're taking positions that they just, they're going best available. They weren't really filling in needs. They didn't feel like they didn't draft. They just to draft a guy. Right. They were taking the best guys they had on their board, which I like for the jets future for this season does nothing for me, by the way.
- [14:35]
Mike Conte
You just said, you guys. What do I have to do with the Jets? I don't. I don't even think about the Jets.
- [14:43]
Chad Millman
Maybe you guys talking to media. I don't know.
- [14:45]
Mike Conte
Oh. Oh, so now I'm just media. Now I'm just. That's how you see me. I'm just a media guy.
- [14:51]
Chad Millman
It was more. It was more in general. It wasn't directed at you. I usually go more you. I go Chad. I like the hard Chad. Yeah, I'm directed at you.
- [14:58]
Mike Conte
Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate that. I don't want to be lumped in with just how you generalize, you know, the media. Evil media under attack every day as an institution. The Baltimore Ravens minus 135 to win the AFC North. Look, I know what we're going to say here. Last year, we love the Bengals, and I'm not sure I have that kind of enthusiasm for the Bengals this year. I was pretty unimpressed with their draft, and we'll get to that part. But the Ravens. The Ravens. Did the Ravens like picking at the end of the first round, they get Malachi Starks from Georgia. They have released Marcus Williams. Like, he's going to come in perfectly aligned with Kyle Hamilton. That defense got better and better as the second half of the season went on. Like, I love what they do. They had a controversial pick with Mike Green. The kid from Marshall who had played at Virginia has had sexual assault allegations in the past. That's partially why he was at Marshall and partially why he's dropped. But it's supposed to be a great talent. Like, this is a team that just. They know what they're doing. They also drafted a kicker, by the way, in case Justin Tucker is no longer available.
- [16:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I would say that was probably the craziest part of their. Their draft, in my opinion, them taking that kicker because allegedly, you know, Justin Tucker might be on his way out of the league. So that's the type of move that it's like, okay, they're kind of being ahead of it. Right. I think they're kind of letting us know what they're probably going to do here because that's. That's a big deal for a team like this to take a guy and especially, you know, another team that we have to say they're a top five front office, or at least top five front office the last 25 years. Like, they just always make the right decisions. And even they've had guys step down and new people step up into these front office positions. They've carried on the legacy of a draft, a great drafting team in Baltimore. So yeah, Mike Green, major questions, no doubt about the talent. It's all about the person. You know, to them that that risk was worth it at that position. You know, I'm. I'm with you with chatted. The fact that, you know, the. Them being -135, they should be like I have them great up to minus 150 in this division. So I have. There is value right now on this number if you want to take it. I've thrown a little bit on them at this number and we'll talk about the other two in this division I think has a chance. But you know, the Ravens just feel like they're so far ahead of everyone else in this division because they just draft so well every year and you're going through their major weaknesses of this team. Like we say every year. There really isn't one. Like you could say the. The major questions might be defensively that is fair, but offensively we think it'll be even better this year. Lamar gets more comfortable in this offense. Derrick Henry, obviously year two on this team should be more comfortable. Um, it's just. They're just so good. Like you said, they just draft so well. So yeah, really impressive.
- [17:55]
Mike Conte
How much more comfortable can they get? Lamar Jackson should have been the MVP and Derrick Henry could have run for 2000 yards as a 31 year old. Like that is peak comfort to me.
- [18:07]
Chad Millman
It was. But it was also felt like there were a couple of things missing and it was the first year where they really opened up the offense to Lamar having more say in passing the ball downfield, in my opinion. So it's just gonna be interesting to see what he does this upcoming season where you're right. You know, he probably could have won MVP last year. Probably should have. Can he. Can he re redo that in another season? I think he can. It's just didn't feel like they lost anything from last season. They've only gained and gotten better since last year.
- [18:33]
Mike Conte
Cincinnati Bengals plus 220. I had a long rant on the show last week about Shemar Stewart, the defensive end from Texas A and M. And look, I don't know anything, but I know that you got a lot of film on a guy who has not produced despite having all world athletic capability according to the numbers that he showed at the combine. And the team that bites is the Cincinnati Bengals because they don't know if Trey Hendricks is going to be there next year or not. They've gone all in on the offense. He wants his, his, his bag. He might not get it. So the answer is going to be a guy who combined well and had four and a half total sacks in college.
- [19:20]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I, I hate everything this Bengals team has just done. I feel like every year they do stupider things. And you know the T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, them waiting till the last hour to sign those guys where they had all this time to work out these deals ended up just paying them both just a ton of money and just above market just because they had to, because they just couldn't lose those two. And you know our guy Nick Giffen last year was all over the Spangles team being one of the worst defenses in all football. Nothing's changed. They have not addressed a single thing in the free agency this draft. To me, like I'm going through all these guys, you know, I'm glad they, they went, you know, edge and D lineman, their first two picks. But neither guy really moves the needle for me and I would be shocked if Stewart's a Day 1 starter. Like the kid's just so raw as Chad's saying. So yeah, I'm, I'm off this team. Wouldn't, would not pay the price. Give me plus 350 on the Bengals at plus 220. No value.
- [20:16]
Mike Conte
Plus 220 on the Bengals.
- [20:18]
Unknown
Do you say data or data? Well, at my house we say data. And for the longest time I thought paying a fortune on my monthly data plan was just normal. That was until I found out about Mint Mobile and their premium wireless plans that start at just 15 bucks a month. Say bye bye to your overpriced wireless plans. Jaw dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages, Mint Mobile is here to rescue you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. Ditch overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month. No matter how you say it, don't overpay for it. Shop data plans@mintmobile.com favorites that's mintmobile.com favorites upfront payment of $45 for three month five gigabyte plan required. That's equivalent to $15 a month new customer offer for first three months only. Then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.
- [21:37]
Simon Hunter
Hey, so we all make mistakes, but owning up is the right thing to do. You know Degree Cool Rush deodorant? Well, last year they changed the formula and it did not go well with their fans.
- [21:47]
Evan
Degree's whole thing is it turns up the sweat and odor protection when you turn up the effort. And good thing it does, because Cool Rush fans really turned up the effort to bring back the original formula. One guy even started an online petition.
- [22:03]
Simon Hunter
And Degree listen, they admitted they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Ru scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. It's back in Walmart, Target and other stores now for under $4.
- [22:15]
Evan
There's a reason why it's been the number one men's antiperspirant for the last decade. It's the same reason why people were not happy when it changed. So if you never tried it, it might be a good time to see what the fuss is about.
- [22:28]
Simon Hunter
Head to your local Walmart or Target to try the OG Degree Cool Rush for yourself.
- [22:33]
Mike Conte
I'm curious because you said there's a team that you like. Right now we're going to talk about the Steelers at plus 550. I can't imagine it's the Steelers.
- [22:44]
Chad Millman
Why not?
- [22:45]
Mike Conte
Interesting.
- [22:46]
Chad Millman
Explain yourself because this is just a perfect team of. They have, you know, DK Metcalf, who I think is one of the better receivers in football, and they, they kept Pickens like, they kept their two big. They have these two big receivers. The only negative is Aaron Rodgers. We don't know what his mentality is, what he's going to do. Is he going to come back? Yada, yada, yada. If he comes back, Chad, it's, it's going to be night and day. Him going from the jets dysfunctional organization to a Tomlin Rand team in Pittsburgh. And to me, this feels like a Hail Mary, all in last hurrah type of season in Pittsburgh. Like, you know, T.J. watt is going to be, I think, 31 at the start of this season. He's basically on his way out and he's kind of been quietly rumored to be really behind the scenes about this team. But I think if they bring in Rogers with this team, I like it. Like, I just like how it's built out that it's not going to be all on him and he's going to have such insane weapons that, you know, we saw it last year. He took about, I want to say, 10 weeks to get that Achilles right in game, in playing in the games. Right. He didn't feel like he was comfortable either moving the pocket or pushing off that back achilles until week 10 or 11. And you did see the jets get better once he did get comfortable as the season went along. So that's my view of a chat of just. I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number. Like, I have them priced as the second best team this division. They have them way down there. Plus 500 is a big drop down for this, this Pittsburgh team. So I think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what? Plus 400 plus 350. So I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like the number I'm going to back Pittsburgh here.
- [24:27]
Mike Conte
I had to put on my glasses to make sure I was reading the number right for the Cleveland Browns, 30 to 1.
- [24:35]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [24:36]
Mike Conte
To win the division, 30 to 1, you're almost obligated to take a piece of that number because it's so outrageous. What if Shador Sanders is as good as Mel Kuiper thinks he is? And what if he should have been the number one overall quarterback? And what if he comes in and he takes Kevin Stefanski's offense, which we know can be really effective and we know he's a good coach. We've seen him do it with Baker, we've seen him do it with Joe Flacco. Like, if he's got a accurate, careful quarterback who can make the plays that he asked them to make. What if Shador Sanders is those things? Don't we have to take the Browns at 30 to 1 just for a little taste?
- [25:19]
Chad Millman
I mean, I'll throw a hundred on it. It's fun. It'd be fun to make this bet and have a 3k come back off $100 bet. That'd be insane. But you know, to me, I loved how they started this draft. Like, I thought they were going to make the stupid mistake of taking Travis Hunter with that second pick. And thank God they didn't. They traded down, took this smart, safe pick. Mason Graham. Brilliant pair, him, you know, up front. Like that's. That's their biggest strength is their defense. And I love that they went D tackle linebacker, like, to start the draft. They're like, we're gonna keep adding to the strength of this defense. And I think what you said was kind of sneaky, the Joe Flacco thing, you know, I. You don't remember it, but another bet I gave out at our live show was the over four and a half for this Browns team to. To win their win total. And it was just because they have the defense. The thing that was missing last year was just a stable player at that quarterback position. And in my mind, I thought, even if it was a guy they drafted or an Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco type, it's going to be so much better than it was last year. It was just so bad. Like, Winston had one good game, then just had four games in a row of just nothing, just train wreck in every game. They were kind of in it because their defense is so good. Like Chad said, Stefanski is such a good coach. So, yeah, I, I, I just like this team. I like their win total. The only reason I'm not taking them divisional odds is I know they're going to peter out come November. Like, they just won't last with the Ravens or these pit or Pittsburgh. I just think eventually it's, they're going to get figured out and kind of get caught up. But yeah, like you're saying 30, 30 to 1. How do you not throw a penny on that? That's, that's crazy long.
- [27:04]
Mike Conte
You have to throw a penny. Little, little bit of a taste. The only team in the AFC who, the only division in the AFC where the odds on favorite is plus money are the Houston Texans in the AFC south at plus 105. They, they had a lot of offensive line needs last year. They have receptors and to their credit, first pick, wide receiver, second pick, offensive tackle, third pick, wide receiver. They took both receivers from Iowa State, so they are clearly going after the things that they felt they needed the most. Last year. Stefan Diggs injured, Nico Collins was injured, Tank Dell injured. They don't know when he'll be back. He had that gruesome injury, knee injury. So they're trying to get themselves back in a position to get some weapons for CJ Stroud, plus 105 to win the division.
- [28:05]
Chad Millman
Simon, this division is really tough. It's one of the divisions where it's like I'm kind of at this point throwing my hands up and I'm going to need more guidance on what to do with this division because I just don't trust Houston like I did coming to last season in the sense that last year I wanted to fade Houston. And then I, I remember I broke right before the season. I was just like, all right, I'm gonna go with Houston. I just cannot trust the Jags, couldn't trust the Colts, and I sure as I didn't trust Tennessee. So I was okay with taking Houston last year. This year, I see the upside of the Jaguars. I see the upside of the Colts, I even see the upside of Tennessee. I don't really see the upside of this Texans team. Like, I feel like they're tapped out and they're in kind of a rebuild mode here, especially on that offensive line. Like, did I dream that they moved Larry and Tunsil? Like I, I, I, I envision them moving their best offensive player that's on their offensive line, their biggest weakness to a different team because what they didn't want to pay him, he's too old. Very bizarre move of them getting rid of him. So, yeah, great that they got Higgins. You know, you think he's a solid receiver. You know, like you said, a pick 79, they wouldn't got another receiver. That's great. But at the same time it's like, I don't know if that's the really the needle mover. Like they, they just, they so much other. They need to attack, they need to attack that defense and to me, that offensive line, they really did not answer those questions. I'm, you know, you're getting the, the 48th pick. Taking the offensive attack from Minnesota could work out. He could be a hitter, but the odds are saying most likely not. He's going to be a two or three year kind of thing where they're going to maybe have to start him because they don't have a choice, but he's not going to be polishing anyway. So. Yeah, I just don't think there's any value there, Chad, at plus 105. And I'm not shocked the books have made them a plus number. I thought this would be closer to plus 120. Plus 125. So yeah, I just, I don't think there's any value on this Houston team.
- [29:53]
Mike Conte
You were, you didn't dream it. By the way, Larry McTunstel, left tackle, who a lot of people consider to be grading out as the best left tackle in football, was traded from Houston to the Washington Commanders. So next up in that division, the Jacksonville Jaguars, plus 300. They made the biggest day one move. Their young GM, who came from the Rams, traded up from number five to number two so he could get Travis Hunter. I don't know if you've watched this guy's press conferences in the first couple days after the draft, both when he explained the trade for Travis Hunter and when Travis Hunter was introduced. But they're not, they're not just platitudes, man. This guy is preaching about what this team is going to be and looking at it from 60,000ft as if we are in the middle of church. Like, the way he is talking about this, it feels so much bigger to him than we're just trying to build a good football team, which it should be. He's the youngest GM in football and he's getting a big chance and he's taking big swings. But I'm enjoying that more than I'm enjoying trying to figure out what this team is going to be with a quarterback that neither of us believe in.
- [31:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah, he's a 34 year old. That, you know, is basically why older generations fucking hate millennials.
- [31:22]
Mike Conte
Like, when he speaks, he's so confident.
- [31:25]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Why? Why? It's, it's bizarre where it's like, okay, make a playoff run and then give that speech after the season. Okay. Shock us first. Like, to me, it's all, horrible trade for an overrated player, but great situation to me for Travis Hunter. Like, he's got a team that is totally all in and believes the bullshit he's selling that he's going to play defense and offense. It's like, even though any guy who's ever played in the league and current players in the league are just like, he is going to die if he tries to play defense and offense. And I gave that, that analogy to Chad, you know, the other week, if he got drafted by Cleveland, I can only imagine he gets laid out by Kyle Hamilton and then the next drive they have him thrown in there and he has to make a tackle on Derrick Henry. He will. He was going to die if he went to the NFC north, so AFC North. So maybe he can get away with it, right? He's in the AFC south now. No one really cares. Maybe they can get away with it. But like this, this gm. Holy shit. Talk about just thinking. He's got all the answers to the test and he doesn't even know the fucking subject. Like, this kid just seems like he is just going to set the jags back another five or 10 years. So I'm excited. Like, it's going to be fun watching, you know, the house burn down. Or it could be, this guy is a genius. Travis Hunter can play both sides of the ball. And it's like, you nailed the pick then. Because Brian Thomas Jr. To me is a great pick from last year. I picked this kid to not make. So they got the one receiver. If Trevor Hunter could be the number two receiver and be an absolute stud, great. Like, that's, that's fantastic. But me and, me and you talk all the time. The biggest issue we've had with the Jaguars is they can't block for Trevor Lawrence and they didn't address that. Like they got an offensive guard from West Virginia, pick 89. That ain't gonna, that ain't gonna change much for that offensive line. So excited for them. High hopes for the jaguars. But yeah, plus 300. No, thank you. I, I'm happy to wait and see how this crazy experiment goes with this kid.
- [33:31]
Mike Conte
It's so funny you mention the playing both ways thing because I watch the draft coverage and I feel like I'm being punked. Like watching a lot of the analysts talk about Travis Hunter and how he's going to be able to do that and how it might be easier in the NFL because they play fewer plays. I'm like, what the fuck is happening here? Am I not watching the same league?
- [33:58]
Chad Millman
It's fun. It's fun to make up in your own mind that this is going to work and he's going to be.
- [34:01]
Mike Conte
But it's so dumb. And by the way, all of this comes down to Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, like that's it. That's the ball game is Trevor Lawrence and his ability to be accurate and run the playbook and get the ball into his weapons hands. By the way, with a brand new coach, brand new coaching staff. Like, I am not sold on this situation at all. I think the Browns put themselves in a really good spot. I don't know that the Jaguars are going to be playoff quality next year. Whereas like the next team we're talking about, the Indianapolis Colts, they get Tyler Warren, who knows who their quarterback is going to be. But either one of those guys, Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson are going to be in a better position because they got a guy who a lot of people thought could have been a maybe the fifth, sixth best player in the draft. The Colts are plus 325, so not that far off from the Jaguars. The market doesn't think there's much of a difference between these two teams.
- [35:05]
Chad Millman
I know people are going to be shocked. This is not the team I'm betting this division. So there's only one team left. So it kind of gives it away. But I like the draft by the Colts. I honestly, it's. It's a good, solid, boring draft. Right. They took the best available players they had on their board and didn't reach for people like Warren. To me shout out to Anthony De Bundo. He predicted it, you know, three, two, three weeks before the draft that that's who they were going to get. And I was shocked. The Bears passing them but again, the more you dove into it, it makes sense, right? Like there's. There are questions that Warren won't beget any separation, that this kid was a freak in college, now he's in a different level and that, you know, he's not going to project out to keep getting better. So, you know, fun, interesting pick. There's the. The hope is obviously Dallas Clark, like that's the dream scenario, is they get the guy they've been looking for for forever. But yeah, the fact they went tight end and then went edge, went D back, like, we all like it. You know, this is a team that it all comes down to the quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, I don't feel like putting any money on them at this point of the year, but maybe that'll change come August. But we're sitting here right now, Chad. I don't have really confidence to put money on those either. Quarterback.
- [36:14]
Mike Conte
And you do on the Tennessee Titans at 8 to 1.
- [36:17]
Chad Millman
Let's go. You don't, you don't love it. Look at that face.
- [36:21]
Mike Conte
So I'm just curious. I don't actually have a strong opinion on this one.
- [36:27]
Chad Millman
So my view of it is this team that historically was the worst team we've ever seen from a gambling perspective last season, like, biggest, biggest blind spot, biggest miss by far of the season for me and you, Chad, was not just fading them every week. And every week I kept saying that to myself and I just couldn't do it because it was like. But they're getting literally four or five extra points for free here and it didn't matter. That's how bad Will Levis was. So when you really go back through and break down this team, he was such a net negative for them that their defense was actually pretty good, especially against explosive plays. Like, they're actually really good at stopping teams from explosive plays. They just got grinded out by a lot of teams, right? They just got worn down because tons of short fields, tons of three and outs from their offense and they just got worn out defensively. Offensively, there's a lot to work with here. Like their offensive line, you saw, you know, you made a big deal effect. The dad came over from Cleveland. What's his name?
- [37:24]
Mike Conte
Bill Callahan.
- [37:25]
Chad Millman
Bill Callahan. He came over and you immediately saw that he did make a difference to a terrible offensive line. Like by end of the season, their blocking schemes were actually pretty good. They weren't, you know, Will Levis was dying early on, but as the season went along, he. A lot of it fell onto him. Just holding on the ball too long, him just being a bad quarterback. I just don't see the same happening here. Like, this is a team that, you know, say what you want. If Cam Ward's a little bit overdrafted, you know, I think people kept saying he had been the fifth or sixth quarterback in the previous draft. I don't think he was that bad. I had him right there, right behind Drake. May I view him as a, a guy that was underrated coming out of high school. I think he was like a one star or zero star recruitment.
- [38:07]
Mike Conte
Zero.
- [38:08]
Chad Millman
That's crazy. And he just worked for everything he's gotten and he just keeps getting better every stage of his life. So maybe he hits the wall. Maybe what we just saw him in Miami, that is as good as it's ever going to get. Or you believe and project out. This kid is really smart, football wise, and he's going to transition really well into the next level. Just like we saw Jaden Daniels do. Where these guys who are cool, calm, collective in the pocket, confident in the pocket, those are the ones who can't transition the best into the NFL. So I know I got crazy high hopes here. I got a long rope. It's eight to one for them to win this division. So that's, that's my view of it is I think I get to get a position here and come November, they're all the way down to, you know, 4 to 1 or 3 to 1. And then maybe if I like Houston at that point, I'll take a position on them. But I think you're just getting way too long of odds for this team that defensively isn't as bad as people think they're an offensively. Just with the quarterback change, I think we're going to see a major leap for this team. So get ready for it. You're going to bend in Tennessee a lot, brother.
- [39:06]
Mike Conte
Tennessee and Carolina. That's going to be our super bowl pick. AFC West Kansas City Chiefs minus 130. Like, I don't know that we'll ever not want to bet on the Chiefs as long as this division exists with Patrick Mahomes. And they did things that we thought they needed to do, right? They drafted Josh Simmons, the offensive tackle from Ohio State. They drafted for speed at the edge. They drafted a wide receiver later on, a guy who a lot of people thought could have been a much higher pick. He came in the fourth round, Jalen Royals from Utah State, but he was injured and so people thought if he could replicate his 2023 production then he would have been drafted maybe second round. So they got guys that can probably play immediately, that they need to contribute immediately. Plus they're going to have Hollywood Brown. Plus they're going to have Rasheed Rice. Like, they're going to be better by virtue of addition of players who had been injured, not coming back.
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And definitely Rice is the biggest one. Like, them. Them losing him and the fact that they didn't really miss a beat and they still just make it all work, just shows the level of greatness of Andy Reid in this team where they can just keep adjusting like chameleon and changing their colors into whatever they need to be to make it work for that team. And, you know, offensively, on paper, I look at this team as this might be the best team they've had offensively since the Tyreek Kelsey years. Like, they've been winning all these championships basically off makeshift offenses with a really good defense. And like Chad just said, you know, adjusting the offensive line right away with the first pick, great. That's what we all think they should do because they've done a total reshuffle this offseason over that offensive line. They've let guys go, they've traded guys. I mean, they traded a guy to Chad's Bears. Like, they're just. They're. They're moving pieces and then paying guys and trying to make it all work because it's tough, right? It's like they paid Mahomes all this money. Now they're trying to make it all work across the board. And it's like, you know, that's the magic of all these teams where, like, you know, the Eagles, they've had to let a ton of guys go because they can't afford anyone after these shoe polls. That's what's so impressive with the Chiefs is they keep making these Super Bowls and losing all these guys, and they keep going back. They keep making it work and it's just, when are they going to get caught? Like, it's that old, you know, Aaron Paul scream at the sky. They can't keep getting away from this. It's true. It's like, I can't believe the Chiefs just keep getting away from this and this. This draft. I'm with you. I think they nailed it like that. The fact they drafted offensive lineman that went to defensive linemen right after, I love that for them. Like, just keep reloading in the trenches. They're just. They're so smart and savvy. So, yeah, this is a team that, you know, great value in my opinion -130. This is a team that's won the division seven, eight years in a row, something crazy like that. And it's because every year everyone thinks in their mind that this is the year that they take a step back. This is the year the Chargers take the next step. This is the year the Broncos finally step up. So it's a rare opportunity. Chad. Minus 130 for the Chiefs. To me, I have a surprise of 1. Minus 175. I really like this early value here on this Chiefs number. Minus 130.
- [42:24]
Unknown
So we all made mistakes, right? But owning up to them is the right thing to do. But we all know Degree Cool Rush deodorant. Well, last year they changed the formula and it did not go over well with the fans. The grease, whole thing. It turns up sweat and other protection when you turn up the effort. And good thing it does because Cool Rush fans really turned up the effort to bring back the OG formula. One guy even started an online petition and degree listen, they admitted they effed up and are bringing back that OG Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. It's back at Walmart, Target and other stores for under $4. There's a reason why it's been the number one men's antiperspirant for the last decade. It's the same reason why people are not happy when the recipe was changed. So listen, if you've never tried, it might be a good time to try. See what the fuss is about. Head to your local Walmart or Target and try the OG degree Cool Rush for yourself.
- [43:15]
Mike Conte
Kansas City Chiefs Professionals Los Angeles Chargers are trying to be professionals and I think they're getting closer. They're at plus 300. They drafted Mario and Hampton in the first round. I know that Evan loved Hampton and had we had a lot of conversations about that last week when we had him and Raybon on. I think they had a totally good draft. Like, did they put themselves in a position to be better than the Chiefs? Probably not. But you can't get there unless you have Patrick Mahomes. The real question for them is just another year playing with Harbaugh and he did a miraculous turnaround with them last year. His teams always get that much better in the second year. So if you're going to bet on them, it's because you're betting on Harbaugh and sort of the value of his system. What's interesting to me is Justin Herbert would get crushed from the center of his offensive line, the middle of that offensive line. Last year, they kind of didn't do much in the draft to. To improve that.
- [44:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And, like, honestly, I didn't think the Chargers would be that good last year. And what I looked was this kid Minter, like this DC they brought in that totally changed the team. Like, as much as you want to give credit to Harbaugh, it was the defense that carried them that entire season. Like, they just basically ran it first and second down. Then, you know, Herbert would make a nice play on third down. That was their offense where defense, they kept getting stops and even against good teams early on. Like, I remember the Chiefs when they played early on, they were really stout against them. And, you know, I get why the public is fascinated with this team, but I think they were a year early and it's moved the number too much. I don't think there's any value here. Plus 300. No value for me on this Chargers team. Like you just said, this draft, it was good, but it was good in the sense that it's like, does it really help them be so much better than they were last year? Their run game was pretty solid last year with a bunch of nobody. So obviously, Hampton should be a big uptick. This kid seems like an absolute stud. You know, such a horrible pick in that. At that spot. Like, taking a running back where I didn't see it coming just because they already have guys. But after they make the pick, it makes total sense because he is so good. But, you know, looking at it over, the more I look at their draft, I'm just like, okay, it is a hardball draft, right? One running back, wide receiver, then a couple guys in the D line. Like, they're just filling it out, trying to get better, like you just said, trying to get more of his identity as they go along here. But a plus 300, that just feels like way too much respect for what they did last year, where last year felt very fluky based on the schedule they had, and very fluke in the sense that men during this defense was just out of this world, how good they were for the first 12 weeks. So, yeah, for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division.
- [46:01]
Mike Conte
I thought it was interesting with the Broncos. Sean Payton was really vocal all weekend defending Shador Sanders, talking about how he knew the family. You know, he had been in Dallas when Shador was in Texas and has a relationship with them and was truly saying teams are going to regret passing on Shador Sanders. He didn't draft Shador Sanders to be a backup to Bo Nicks at any point, no matter how valuable he thought the placement might have be, might have been in the draft. They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who you know is crazy fast. To me, they're more interesting as a play, a plus 325, than the Chargers at plus 300. Because we saw how good this defense was and we saw Bo Nix get better and better every single week. So now all of a sudden, they've got another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much more challenging for a team like Kansas City, which has the best quarterback in the NFL.
- [47:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you're going to like it even more. Chad's plus 375, plus 400. So even better number.
- [47:06]
Mike Conte
Dude, I should have put my glasses on for that one.
- [47:09]
Chad Millman
No, it's. To me, that's the value in this division. Right. Like, I feel like you just nailed it. Where we're banking on the year two jump from Bo Nix, which we. I know it's annoying people, but it's a. It's a real thing. That year two jump with these quarterbacks. Go through, you know, Mahomes first MVP season. That was this first year as a starter. It was a year or two jump. Lamar first year's MVP year two jump, you know, second season as a starter. So this draft, to me, they nailed it. Like, I love the cornerback that got out of Texas and now, you know, your secondary is one of your biggest strengths. Now it's like even more insane. Like it's just another team that they didn't force a draft pick, they didn't force a D lineman that they do need. They took the best player available in their draft board and I loved it. And you know, Harvey, the running back from ufc, it'll be unknown how good he'll be in the NFL, but he's got all these free qualities to him. And I love those type of running backs where it's like, you see the vision and a guy that, you know, Peyton is just like out of this world where he. The stuff he can do with running backs, you know, Darren Sproul is the first one that pops in the mind what, what he was able to do with him once he came down there.
- [48:16]
Mike Conte
Reggie Bush.
- [48:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right. Reggie Bush, he just. He can.
- [48:21]
Mike Conte
He can era.
- [48:23]
Chad Millman
Keep going. No, but seriously, he gets his vision for these guys and he can mold the offense around them as well, which is something very unique to Sean Payton and his offensive schemes. So, you know, big, big deal. They've done all this and our view of it is just okay, the defense takes another step. If Bo Nex takes another step it's all there, right? They have a coach who in my mind is on the same type of level offensively as Andy Reed is and you saw that last year like Bo Nicks. I wish people could heard Matt Mitchell talk about him coming to the season. This I think most college fans buried that man. They're just like who the hell are they taking their first round and Bo Nix and and you saw as the year went along like he fit so perfectly into that scheme that he was running. So really excited to see if they have a year two jump or a team that could just be like what they were last year. They overachieved and just fall in their face because Bo Nix is overrated and he just got lucky after one fluke year in the NFL. So high upside team, huge floor like really could drop down to 5, 6 wins this coming season just because they were so ahead of the chat. I remember they had a run at one point they had won like seven straight road games. Like very bizarre how dominant they were. So yeah this is, this is a team that you know really out kicked their cover last season. We expect them to take another step. We're going to bet on it but I am nervous making this bet on Bonix.
- [49:45]
Mike Conte
How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at 16 to 1 with Geno Smith and Ashton Genty and Pete Carroll as the head coach? I'd be tempted to take their over season win total. Tempted because I do think there's enough talent with Geno Smith and Brock Bowers and Ashton Genti they will just be so much better than last year offensively and the market will keep them being depressed.
- [50:14]
Chad Millman
Well something really depressing is I got this at 20 to 1 and then when they added Geno it only moved to 16:1 so it just shows the books just don't respect Gino at all. I'm with you though. This number feels insane. Like like we said before this is a physical game. We've already seen Mahomes, you know he got injured on a tush push. That's why he doesn't even do QB sneaks anymore. Like his knee last time he did a QB sneak his knee popped out.
- [50:39]
Mike Conte
I remember that.
- [50:40]
Chad Millman
And there's a reason they don't do that with him anymore. You know this is a fickle league. So it's like this, this Raiders team is going to take such a huge jump going from Minshew to Geno Smith, a guy who is smart and is Patient in the pocket and can read a defense. Yeah, like, I hate that Genti went here, but man, did that pick saved my ass. Like, if he would have went after pick six, that would have cost me an insane amount of money. So, yeah, I got really lucky. He went there. Don't know if I love the fit for Genti, but it's like that's an instant a plus move for their offense, right? Like this already. This is already going to let it be that the box, if they ever even try to stack against Gino. We've seen Gino. Maybe that was part of the DK effect. But to me, Gino is best downfield. Like him pushing the ball downfield is when he's at his best for some reason. It's when he's like, you know, taking his time too long in the pocket, trying to go through all of his motions that he struggles. So I'm with you, Chad. The fact that this is 16 to 1 still, it's just like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on just because the crazy things that have happened. My big, big bet like that, I'm going to take a large position on. It's going to be the Chiefs in this division minus 130. That's where. If you want to lock up your money now, that's where I would go with it. But if you're like us and you love, you know, madness and crazy, upside 16 to 1, Geno Smith. Come on, let's throw a little piece on that.
- [52:02]
Mike Conte
We began our back to backs yesterday talking about Mel Kuyper and his meltdowns about Shador Sanders and a chart in which the exemplar, one of the exemplars of his grading quarterbacks highly who then sunk down the draft was Geno Smith. We end it talking about how we believe enough in Geno Smith. They were willing to take a taste on the Raiders at 16 to 1. Good for us. Good for us that we bring it full circle.
- [52:39]
Chad Millman
Like, there it is.
- [52:41]
Mike Conte
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Condition restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites. It's actually tomorrow on the Action Network YouTube page. We're talking Kentucky Derby with Mike Conte. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [53:50]
Unknown
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
- [53:54]
Mike Conte
If you or someone you care about.
- [53:56]
Unknown
Has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [54:01]
Okay, have you heard about this? Last year, Degree changed the formula for their Cool Rush deodorant. The fans rebel and wanted the old scent back. And Degree listen, and that doesn't happen often. They admitted they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason why it's the number one man's antiperspirant. And it's back in Walmart, Target and other stores now for under $4. So try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local Walmart Target and try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.