The Herd with Colin Cowherd: The Favorites - AFC East Betting Preview

Hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Release Date: August 13, 2025

Introduction

In the episode titled "The Favorites - AFC East Betting Preview" of The Favorites podcast, co-hosts Chad Millman and Devin delve deep into the betting landscape of the AFC East division. This detailed analysis offers listeners insights into the odds, team performances, key players, and strategic betting considerations for the upcoming NFL season.

AFC East Overview

Chad Millman introduces the AFC East as a pivotal division in the NFL, highlighting its influence on both conference and Super Bowl prospects. He humorously refers to the division's unpredictability and the varying odds associated with each team.

Buffalo Bills: Division Favorites

• Odds and Confidence
  • Division Odds: -275
  • Conference Odds: +325
  • Super Bowl Odds: +700
  • Win Total: 11.5

Chad asserts, "There is no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds on favorite and anyone else in the division." ([02:20])

Devin supports the bullish outlook on the Bills, emphasizing their favorable schedule and offensive prowess. He likens betting on the Bills' win total to betting on "pizza, baby. It's good no matter what." ([12:41])

Key Points:

• Josh Allen's MVP Credentials: Devin notes Allen's exceptional performance last season, particularly his improved receiving yards after the catch, which significantly contributed to the Bills' success.
• Defensive Concerns: While the offense is strong, both hosts express caution regarding the Bills' defense, questioning if it can sustain its performance throughout the season.

New England Patriots: Trendy Team with Cautious Optimism

• Odds and Confidence
  • Division Odds: 5 to 1
  • Super Bowl Odds: 75 to 1
  • Win Total: 7.5

Devin highlights the Patriots' improved offensive line and the acquisition of talents like their new left tackle from LSU. He remarks, "He is just one of a kind with Josh Allen. He is Superman." ([20:07])

Chad remains skeptical about the Patriots' ability to meet the projected win total, citing uncertainties around quarterback performance and defensive consistency. He introduces a cautious approach, suggesting a wait-and-see strategy before committing to bets on this team. ([30:37])

Key Points:

• Coaching Impact: Mike Vrabel's strategic acumen is praised, but concerns remain about offensive consistency, particularly surrounding quarterback Drake May.
• Schedule Toughness: Chad points out six challenging matchups that the Patriots must navigate, including games against the Raiders, Steelers, Panthers, Dolphins, Browns, and Saints.

Miami Dolphins: Competitive Contenders with Protective Measures

• Odds and Confidence
  • Division Odds: 7 to 1
  • Conference Odds: 35 to 1
  • Super Bowl Odds: 75 to 1
  • Win Total: 7.5

Devin lauds Tua Tagovailoa's leadership, despite public skepticism. He emphasizes Tua's statistical excellence across various metrics and the Dolphins' robust offensive system. "He is a top 10 quarterback across every single metric." ([31:43])

Chad echoes Devin's confidence in Tua and the Dolphins, focusing on their offensive strengths and strategic playmaking. He recommends betting the over on their win total, citing their strong schedule and offensive capabilities. ([33:49])

Key Points:

• Tua's Health: While Chad expresses slight reservations about potential injuries, he remains largely optimistic about the Dolphins' performance.
• Offensive Strategy: The Dolphins' emphasis on short slants and quick throws, combined with Tua's accuracy, positions them as a formidable team.

New York Jets: Undervalued Team with Defensive Upside

• Odds and Confidence
  • Division Odds: 14 to 1
  • Conference Odds: N/A
  • Super Bowl Odds: 200 to 1
  • Win Total: 5.5

Chad discusses the Jets' defensive strengths, particularly spotlighting players like Quinn Williams and Sauce Gardner. He notes their potential under Aaron Glenn's new defensive schemes. "They have a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams." ([41:33])

Devin remains cautious about the Jets' offensive struggles, primarily attributed to quarterback Justin Fields' inconsistency. Despite the strong defense, the offense's unpredictability makes betting a challenge. "Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season." ([37:16])

Key Points:

• Defensive Talents: Strong defensive line and secondary are potential game-changers if leveraged correctly.
• Offensive Challenges: Justin Fields' performance remains a critical variable, with concerns over his ability to maintain consistency and avoid injuries.

Betting Strategies and Considerations

Chad and Devin discuss their respective betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding team dynamics, player health, and schedule difficulty. They advocate for a balanced approach, considering both offensive strengths and defensive capabilities when placing bets.

• Chad’s Approach:

  • Bills as Safe Bets: Advocates for betting on the Bills' high win total due to their superior offense.
  • Cautious Patriots Bets: Suggests monitoring the Patriots' performance before committing to bets.
  • Dolphins as Over Favorites: Recommends taking the over on the Dolphins' win total, based on Tua's performance and offensive strategy.
  • Jets for Value: Sees potential value in the Jets' defensive strengths but remains hesitant due to offensive uncertainties.

• Devin’s Approach:

  • High Confidence in Bills and Dolphins: Strongly favors betting on both teams’ high win totals.
  • Skeptical of Patriots and Jets: Expresses reservations about the Patriots despite their trendy status and doubts the Jets’ offensive prospects.

Notable Quotes

• Chad Millman:
  "There is no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds on favorite and anyone else in the division." ([02:20])

• Devin:
  "He is a top 10 quarterback across every single metric." ([31:43])

• Chad Millman:
  "The key component for the Bills is do you believe their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen."' ([40:22])

• Devin:
  "Everything about him. Like, I know he's got the weak head, and I feel like he's got a brittle body." ([37:16])

Conclusion

In "The Favorites - AFC East Betting Preview", Chad Millman and Devin provide a comprehensive analysis of the AFC East teams, blending statistical insights with personal perspectives to guide bettors through the complexities of NFL wagering. Their balanced discussion highlights the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins as strong contenders, while exercising caution with the New England Patriots and New York Jets due to underlying uncertainties. This episode serves as an invaluable resource for fans and bettors aiming to navigate the upcoming NFL season with informed strategies.

Additional Resources

• Subscribe and Listen:
  The Favorites podcast is available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, and other major podcast platforms.

• Follow Hosts:
  Stay updated with Chad Millman and Devin for more in-depth sports analysis and betting previews.

• Join the Conversation:
  Engage with the podcast community on social media platforms to share insights and discuss predictions for the NFL season.

Disclaimer:
**The content provided in this summary is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk, and listeners should wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help at 1-800-GAMBLER.