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- [00:00]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [00:23]
Devin
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [00:28]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:35]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [00:36]
Devin
We choose to go to the moon.
- [00:38]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.
- [00:41]
Devin
It's one small step for man about.
- [00:43]
John Lithgow
Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [00:47]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [00:49]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz. Starring me, John Lithgow, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:05]
Manny
Why are TSA rules so confusing?
- [01:08]
Devin
You got a hoodie on. Take it all.
- [01:10]
Manny
I'm Manny.
- [01:10]
Chad Millman
I'm Noah.
- [01:11]
Devin
This is Devin.
- [01:12]
Manny
And we're best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing, where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? I can't expect. What to do now? If the rule was the same, go off on me, I deserve it, you.
- [01:25]
Devin
Know, Lock him up.
- [01:26]
Manny
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podc.
- [01:32]
Devin
No such thing.
- [01:35]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Get fired up, y'.
- [01:36]
Devin
All.
- [01:36]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Season two of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon Megan Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like, wee like this is. People ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [02:20]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Lots of conversations to have about life and the NFL today. Let's welcome in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:41]
Devin
Chad. How we doing, dude?
- [02:44]
Chad Millman
You and I could not be on more opposite ends of the spectrum of life. I've thought about multiple times this past weekend when you were sending us a picture of your whole crew, which did not need to make much of an effort to look exactly like Fred Durst from Limp Bizkit at your bachelor party this weekend while I was managing so much family stuff and the end of having kids at home. Please tell me, please give me like the highlight of something fun.
- [03:24]
Devin
I mean, there was a lot of. I mean, just, it was just stupid as shit. I mean, from the get go, stupid. I literally get there and one of the guys I'm staying with, his car is getting about to get towed. Like literally the truck is backing up the tow and I had to tell the guy, hey, that's my car, because I saw the kid had Delaware rugby stickers on the back of it. So it was a bunch of udell rugby kids 10 years later in Dewey Beach. So they were all reliving their glory days. And it was Chad saw the picture, it was like 30 guys, all different walks of life, all real characters, but they're all connected through one person. Obviously that's what a bachelor party is. So it was like his childhood buddies, his college buddies, and yeah, my first time really doing Dewey beach, the bar scenes. Best way I can describe. Again, I'm old now, so like there's milfs, which are people my age and then above and then like young 20 year olds who didn't know who Fred Durst was and was like, why are 30 year old dressed so weird? All these guys run up to one bar all over. But yeah, I'd say the funniest memory was I again, I'm an old man. I go to bed early and I'm woken up probably every half hour because people are coming back. So again, I'm a light sleeper at 4, 4, 4:30 in the morning. It sounds like someone just got thrown through a wall in the apartment above me. So we read it out the bottom and the top part of the apartment and all you hear is just shit breaking like insanity. And again, I went check the kitchen, make sure no one through the floor because that's how loud it was. We wake up the next morning, it looked like a bomb went off upstairs. It was just three guys fighting. Yeah. Just again, not fighting like you think, like just guys being guys.
- [05:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Pretending they're in a hockey fight.
- [05:12]
Devin
Yeah. And he suplexed the guy and the guy could barely walk. And it's like you guys are all in your 30s. What's going on? So, yeah, it went exactly how you would think it would go with the rugby guys from Udell at Dewey Beach 10 years later. So, yeah, it was a great time. It was a great crew, really funny group.
- [05:26]
Chad Millman
Oh my God, it sounds amazing.
- [05:29]
Devin
Yeah, no, that's what I said. I can't keep up. Like, even with them, I can't keep up. But you forget about the old days, right? You just go to the beach, you start drinking at 11am and you drink all day, you eat all day, go out to bars and restaurants all day, all night, and it's just like, damn, man, those were the good days. No worries. You're just boozing and Eaton and it's warm and sunny out. So, yeah, I. I enjoyed it. But like I said, the whole time we just talked football, it's like, it's just on the tip of everyone's tongue. So I was like enjoying it. But the back of my mind, the whole time I'm just like, can I watch this Browns game on my phone in this bar right now and not be judged? Because I just want to watch Sanders. So, yeah, it was fun going out with everyone. But also, always football, Chad, Always football.
- [06:12]
Chad Millman
By the way, the last time I really did what you talked about, which is starting to eat and drink at 11am and just going all night, was spring break, my senior year of college, when we. Or maybe my junior year of college, maybe my sophomore year of college when we went to Panama City, Florida, and there were like 15 of us.
- [06:31]
Devin
You're on a Girl's Gone Wild video. I have to now go through my collection, see if I can see Chad.
- [06:36]
Chad Millman
We drove from Bloomington, Indiana to Panama City. We started eating and drinking so early, I don't think I was hungry or sober for six days. Yeah, I gained on that trip. You know what I look like? Yeah, I gained 13 pounds.
- [06:54]
Devin
Cuz you probably didn't go to the bathroom once. That's how your bows got.
- [06:57]
Chad Millman
I have, I have a picture of me from that trip and I'm like, my face looks like a basketball.
- [07:04]
Devin
I. I can't even picture a fat Chad. That's how good a shape you are. I can't even visualize you see it.
- [07:09]
Chad Millman
That was the last time. Meanwhile, I am going through the throes of emotion that come from the final days. Having a kid in the house before he goes to college. Our youngest kid of the two. And we have been doing stuff and I'm realizing, Holy shit, we're 16 days away from this now. Last week we went to the Red Sox game. He had never been to Fenway. And we, at some point every summer, I did this with my other kid, too. Would go somewhere, just the two of us. And this is the last one, you know, before he goes to college. We're driving up to the game. I'm like, in tears four or five different times recognizing this. He never looks up from his phone. It's fine. I. This weekend, I made him watch the Bears preseason game with me, even though, like, he was dying to get out of the house and go to the gym. I'm like, guy, first half, just sit with me. We're going to do it. Like I'm envisioning. So am I texting him during the Bears games now? Non stop. Like, we were watching the Cubs a little bit. I'm like, last night I'm like, so how am I going to do this when he's not sitting next to me? I don't even know how I'm going to function. And you know how last week, like I told you, my wife actually asked me about point spreads? This week she came downstairs in an old School favorites T shirt that has cartoon caricatures of you and I on the back. And then I realized why she's doing it. She's not doing it because, like, she knows I'll be miserable when our son leaves the house. It's because she knows I'm the only one left. That's it. It's me and the dog. And right now the dog is on my side. I am totally the dog's person. So, like, my wife is realizing, oh, no, she's going to be home alone with us. I better start showing my husband I like him again after 22 years of having kids in the house. That's where it's coming from.
- [09:19]
Devin
Melbourne has pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history. That or she's about to get another dog. You don't even know it.
- [09:27]
Chad Millman
It's entirely possible.
- [09:28]
Devin
That is possible, by the way.
- [09:30]
Chad Millman
All right, you mentioned football. Today is our annual division by division NFL preview episode on the AFC east, home of the league's mvp, Josh Allen. Josh Allen, its most bettable coach and Mike Vrabel, its most disgruntled wide receiver. In Tyreek Hill, the franchise with the whiniest fan base, the New York jets, at the request of longtime listener Mike Schiffman. At least I think. I think that's how you say his name. I'm kidding. I'm adding which divisions the AFC east plays both in its own conference and in the nfc. The AFC east plays this Year the NFC south and the AFC North. Simon, we're going to start with the Buffalo Bills. Division minus 275 Conference plus 325 Super bowl plus 700 win total 11 and a half. There is no division that has a bigger disparity between the odds on favorite and anyone else in the division. You said this last week you love the Bills. I will say I went through the schedule to find 12 wins. They open with Baltimore. Then they have the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Panthers. So they obviously get the Jets, Miami and the Patriots two times each. Plus they have the Browns. I might be inclined to wait until after six or seven weeks and then see how their season win total is and maybe try and bet it then before I dive in right now.
- [11:26]
Devin
Are you a non believer, Chad? Is that what you're saying?
- [11:30]
Chad Millman
Well, I'm not a non believer, but I think Josh Allen last year obviously had the best year he's ever had. And I think there were some factors that helped him along the way. Specifically, as much as he was brilliant when he was running the ball and they developed sort of a tush push strategy, his receivers averaged more than a yard more after the catch than at any point in his career. And I remember watching last year how many times did his guys get open and then get yardage that they needed to make the game shift and tilt in their direction. That's as big a factor as anything. So. And I don't, I don't. I just don't know if their defense is good enough yet. Like, and so last year to me was as good as they could possibly be. Can they be better? They can be one of the two, three best teams in the afc, but is that going to be good enough? That's why I'm not like all in yet.
- [12:42]
Devin
I'm shocked. Yeah, I would say of all the teams that are a safe bet, this feels like the safest. That's why the odds are what they are. Professionals came in and hit this as soon as they opened it and it was really based off the guess of what the schedule would be. And then once the schedule came out, this number really moved up because it kind of laid out perfect for them. They do have a very easy schedule, so that's why I wouldn't wait if I'm gonna bet this. Like, if I'm betting their win total, I'll take it 11 and a half. No problem. Gives a It's like pizza, baby. It's good no matter what. There's music in the air.
- [13:18]
Chad Millman
Step up.
- [13:18]
Devin
And shout now it's a good time.
- [13:20]
Chad Millman
Do you know what I mean?
- [13:21]
Devin
Rubbing up against each other and trying.
- [13:22]
Chad Millman
To make it honest. I get it.
- [13:24]
Devin
Their divisional odds is high, so we've talked about. Like, I put them in parlays, but I don't know if you're getting lost a little bit, but we. I definitely got lost in it last year where I took Josh Allen's talent for granted. And I can't believe I even thought the jets or anyone else in the division had a chance while this.
- [13:43]
Chad Millman
I don't think anyone has a chance.
- [13:44]
Devin
I know, but I'm just saying, like, overall, this is. This is lined up for them this season. Like you said, there's questions on the defense, of course. Like that's. That's going to be their weakness because he doesn't play defense. The MVP is not on defense. They have holes on defense and they're older in some places. So I get the skepticism, but it's all Josh, Sean. That's why you asked me if they could be cursed from the Hard Knocks. And it's like the Bills, they're. They are the curse. Like the losing four straight Super Bowls. I told you, they just. This fan base can't be phased by the bullshit of Hard Knocks and Josh Allen. I joked with you. He is doing an absurd amount of therapy in the off season because he's 0 and 4 against Mahomes in the playoffs. And he knows he is better than. He is better than Mahomes. We all know this. But again, I had him at three, you had him at two. We all put Mahomes above him because he wins when it matters. Like cool. Josh Allen won MVP last year. Matt Mitchell didn't go to a parade in Buffalo. No one did because there isn't one. They don't matter. MVP is cool. And that was my whole point with the whole QB rankings is we've gone too far with the stats. And Josh Allen knows that words, his stats. He likes it. He likes winning MVPs, but he. Even in watching the Hard Knocks, I love how he is. Just so he knows the deal. It's all bullshit. Like he wants to see people slam through tables in February, riding down Buffalo's Main street with all the fans. So I'm with you that you can have skepticism on this team for their win total and you can try to go against it. But I'm not going to overthink it. I'll go the over. And I would be shocked if they're not the one or two. See the way their schedule lines up in their division. Like, we're about to dive in their division. The only way it doesn't work out is if he gets hurt. Like, if he's healthy, at best, he's losing one home game. Josh Allen just does not lose home games. Like, he is just a different beast at home and even on the road. We saw last year, that was his biggest step up is he's not doing those super turnovers like him and Joe Brady. It's another year together. So, yeah, this is a team. You can tell. Like, I'm, I'm on. I'm all in on them. Like them, the Chiefs, they are the only teams I've taken positions on in the AFC for Super Bowl. And Josh Allen's so good that he makes me break a rule, which I know it's a dumb rule, but I usually don't put a high amount of money to teams, organizations that never won Super Bowls before. NFL is really weird where teams that have won before in the past or whatever, they tend to repeat. Teams that have never won before, I don't know why, they just, they don't win. Like, we've seen it time and time again, the same organizations, I mean, you can just go back the last 10 years and look at the repeats. It's, it's the same organizations are always in the super bowl, but with the talent level they have, Chad, the money they've spent on the young talent of their defense, I do think with the coaching staff they have that this is like, this is a true contender, this division. So. And then not just the division, the league. So. Yeah. Minus 275 Chad news. I'm not betting that straight up. Yeah, if someone out there, you're making one divisional bet and you want to go safe, go for it. Like, you're probably not going to lose your money unless Josh Allen gets hurt. But again, there's too much risk for me with that, with injuries that I'd rather parlay, parlay this into something than putting all this into one bet. So, yeah, as you can tell, Chad, I'm very high on this team. And I'm with you. The biggest Achilles heel when you drive through the numbers in this, this organization is their drafting of their defense. Have these guys improved enough on the talent they've lost in the back end these last couple years to be a great defense to match Josh Allen. And they have not, they've not shown up in the playoffs when it matters, it's always on Josh Allen. And you know, last year, I, like I said, I don't Want to make the excuse for him, but, you know, you expect, you put up 30 points on the road, you're probably going to win. And he fell apart and the defense fell apart there then against the Chiefs. So that, that's the question, Chad. Like you have, it's, it's the defense.
- [17:21]
Chad Millman
But also we talk about the young talent they're adding to the defense. They're the. Everything I keep reading is about Matt Milano coming back and how he's a game changer for this defense. They weren't that good when he was playing last year. And so he was hurt. Yeah, but he's been hurt non stop.
- [17:44]
Devin
But when he, when he comes on the field, like even the playoffs, he made a couple plays, you're like, that's why he's so special. Like even that Ravens game, he had a couple plays where you're like, that's why he is special. I get where you're coming from. He's older and he gets hurt a lot. But that's, that's just a name. That's why they're telling you that. Because there are other guys in their defense that aren't household names. That's why they're not talking about it. But to me, I, again, I get where you're coming from, where it's like, he's an older guy, but he's not. Like they have other parts that are going to be more important. But I agree, the question for me is just going to be their secondary. Like they, they've been drafting secondary, they've been spending money on the secondary. Can. Can they cover? Because I still can't believe Mahomes and that. That Chiefs offense put up, whatever it was, 33, 30 points last year in that playoff game. That was not, I think that might have been the first time all year they put over 30 points. Right? Something crazy like that. So that's, that's the Achilles heel of this team. And I think that's why I get your skepticism when you talked about it a little bit. But I've been blind to it all summer. I'm just like, man, this is. He's 29, Josh Allen, whatever, this is his seventh or eighth season. It's just all lined up like, is he really about to go over five against Mahomes in the playoffs? I just, I can't believe it. Like, when you dive into the stats, it doesn't make sense. It's an anomaly. He's just so talented, he's so good. But he just keeps fucking up in these fourth quarters or the Defense fucks up for them in the fourth quarters and it's like, if you're a betting man, Chad, eventually it's going to go the other way, brother. So that's why, like, I'm hitting it, you know, Super Bowls plus 700. You could do what Chad's doing, which is like, be patient, maybe see if you can get a better number. But I do match up. So, like, I've already thrown a couple matchups with them, the Rams, them and the Eagles, and they're all, they're all nice and juicy. I think they're all like 50 or 45 to 1.
- [19:22]
Chad Millman
You know, I do the matchups. I've already. I actually did the Bills and the Niners at 45 to 1 like that. I think we talked about this with the NFC West. I just feel like I'm not seeing any value in anything. Betting the bills outright. 11 and a half. I guess you could take it, but it just feels like last year was so elite and so special. It's ripe for some regression. It wasn't just Josh Allen. It was sort of everything being perfect on the offense. I watched the movie Sinners over the weekend. I didn't even know Haley Steinfeld was in it. And she was awesome. And it just made me excited for her and Josh Allen because, you know, I love, love.
- [20:08]
Devin
She's the ultimate catch. And you know, Josh, like what, that's what I love about him, though. Like, he's, he's hyped. Obviously. He has an off field life. But even watching Hard Knocks, he's just so committed to that team and that organization, the fan base, it's like they just. I can't get over how they deserve it. The Bills deserve this. But you really, you got, you got one of a kind with Josh Allen. He is, he is Superman. So pretty, pretty sweet.
- [20:31]
Chad Millman
I just think it'd be great if next year Josh Allen is coming off a Super bowl win and Hailee Steinfeld is walking the red carpet with him at the Oscars. I think it'll be amazing. All right, Matt Mitchell. I feel like we need to get Matt Mitchell's take here because he's so aligned with the Bills and defined by the Bills.
- [20:52]
Matt Mitchell
I appreciate you making me a part of this.
- [20:55]
Chad Millman
Will you offer any insight as a fan?
- [21:00]
Matt Mitchell
I'll say this. I am consumed with the exact same amount of dread for the exact same amount of reasons as I have been. I think Simon nailed it perfectly. I do think if you want to get involved in betting Buffalo, I actually do think the super bowl matchup angle is probably a really smart one because seven to one's asinine because it always feels like it's a billion to one that they'll win the super bowl the last season in the old stadium and wanting to, you know, if you're a conspiracy theorist, the league turning its eye to to Buffalo, they'll want them to be successful and make money in this unbelievably expensive, publicly funded stadium. So I think there's some angles there.
- [21:45]
Chad Millman
All right. No, it's good for script. I agree with that.
- [21:47]
Devin
Yeah.
- [21:48]
Action Network Announcer
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- [22:48]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [22:50]
Devin
We choose to go to the moon.
- [22:52]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast, that's One Small Step for Man. It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [23:02]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz. As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.
- [23:06]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.
- [23:11]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
To depression, alcohol abuse and suicide.
- [23:14]
John Lithgow
We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.
- [23:17]
Devin
What do you say, Buzz? Another beer?
- [23:19]
John Lithgow
And triumph over addiction.
- [23:21]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.
- [23:23]
John Lithgow
Good luck to you and become a true hero.
- [23:26]
Devin
Buzz and I will proceed into the.
- [23:28]
John Lithgow
Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.
- [23:35]
Devin
Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.
- [23:37]
John Lithgow
Starring me, John Lithgow.
- [23:39]
Devin
Can you put it through?
- [23:41]
John Lithgow
Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:47]
Chad Millman
Columbia.
- [23:48]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Get fired up, y'.
- [23:50]
Devin
All.
- [23:50]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe to the show. And, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance sue, bird watching former teammates retire, and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final and the locker room. I really, really like you. Just, you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to the locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar AZ Foote. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:49]
Action Network Announcer
Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [24:54]
Chad Millman
Hello, puzzlers.
- [24:55]
Ken Jennings
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?
- [25:10]
Action Network Announcer
Jeopardy.
- [25:11]
Ken Jennings
Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [25:15]
Chad Millman
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [25:18]
Ken Jennings
That's right. Are there Jeopardy Truthers. Are there people who say that it's it was rigged?
- [25:23]
Devin
Yeah, ever since I was first on.
- [25:24]
Chad Millman
People are like, they give you the answers.
- [25:26]
Devin
Right.
- [25:26]
Chad Millman
And then there's the other ones which.
- [25:28]
Devin
Are like, they give you the answers.
- [25:29]
Chad Millman
And you still blew it.
- [25:32]
Ken Jennings
Don't miss Jeopardy Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:54]
Chad Millman
New England Patriots. This is what's interesting. Huge trendy team getting a trend alert here. Matt Mitchell, cue the alarm. Trend alert. Lungs are bursting at the moment for Millman. Everyone loves this team. You can see it in the numbers. For example, their conference odds are 35 to 1. They're Super bowl odds are 75 to 1. Their win total is seven and a half. Same exact across the board as the Miami Dolphins. But the patriots division odds 5 to 1. The dolphins division odds 7 to 1. So we know where the money's going. We know what people are excited about. And then this past weekend against the Bills, like everyone or not against the Bills. Oh, My God, I just totally forgot who they. I think they played the commanders, the Patriots. They're starting their new left tackle. That kid from LSU looked amazing. Those little videos were all over the TikTok of him doubling guys, of him pancaking guys. So, hooray, the Patriots are back.
- [27:15]
Devin
It's going to be a team that, like you just said, the general public's going to hype up and, you know, is it deserving, Chad, of the hype? You know, it's all. It's all debatable. But then we both look at this team and we see the pieces they have, and it all comes back to Rabel. Right. I think we're both one of those guys. We just. We look at coach, and it's such an important cog. And I think most professional betters do, and that's why they've taken a position here where it's like, okay, they have the schedule you expect. When they have. They've addressed the offensive line, it should be so much improved that, you know, if Diggs just gets back to 75% is what he was before the knee injury, that's a huge upgrade for them. The wide receiver position, this is someone that can run routes. Like, he is really, really crisp at running routes. That's what Diggs has always been so talented at. So, you know, Drake may, you know, people. People take a position on them. We've had people on the show that, you know, talked about him being one of the best quarterbacks they thought coming out in that group, and I've just. I've never seen it. And even last year, he had moments that he popped, but it's like, you know, we all know he has the talent, have deep throws downfield or he can run the ball, and that's that. That was never the question with him. The question with him was being consistent. And that was the problem with him coming out. And last year was kind of a throwaway because, you know, this year he's going to have Rabel and McDaniels coaching him up. That's a huge, huge upgrade than what he had last year. I think people might be a year early on him because of what they're projecting, because people are like, well, they have an easy schedule. Every fan base you talk to, any fan base outside of New England, you're. You're the easy team on their schedule. New England, like, you're talking about everyone being. You have an easy schedule. This year, when people look at their schedule and break it down, no. 31 other teams are saying that's a win against you guys. I don't think anyone's giving a loss to the Patriots. So they're. They're an interesting team where it's like, I get what the bookmakers. They're doing. They're taking a position on them, and their model is projecting out. This is a really talented team. I think it's a year early. Like, my. My model literally has them right next to Miami, basically. And you just talked about the difference, like 7 to 1, Miami, to win this division, they're 5 to 1. That's a big. That's a big difference. So, yeah, I like this Patriots team a lot. I love the pieces there, but it's like, oh, I don't. What is. What is the ceiling? It's. They put them at seven and a half wins. Are you taking their under? I'm not taking their under because there's so many variables. They could easily go over this with Rabel and Drake may. Because it sucks to lose. It sucks losing. Awful. That's why I want to win.
- [29:53]
Chad Millman
Dude. I did the math. All right, I did the math because, a. I've asked this before, but give me your opinion on the number of wins you think Mike Vrabel can get for this team because of his coaching. Remember Mike Vrabel managing the clock, managing the game overall, strategically understanding the rules, doesn't have any peers in the NFL right now. The only one was Belichick, and he was outmaneuvering Belichick the last few times they played against each other. So I have an opinion on how many games I think he can win for them. How many do you think? How many do you think he can win for them?
- [30:37]
Devin
Yeah, I think last time I said two, and I think you had a two and a half, right? Yeah, something like that. Yeah.
- [30:42]
Chad Millman
So I set the line at two and a half.
- [30:44]
Devin
Yeah.
- [30:44]
Chad Millman
I think it could be as many as three. There's a couple factors for me that make me like this over, and it's actually not the Drake may hype. I think that the offensive line will be improved. I think it's a generally better coach team. I'm discounting Stefan Diggs. You just don't know. So their skill positions haven't really improved very much, but I think their defensive line will be better. They got Milton Williams. Christian Barmore will be back. I like their defensive backfield a lot. Christian Gonzalez continuing to improve as a physical lockdown corner. They have really good defensive backs. But like you just said, it's the schedule. I count. I count six 50, 50 games. Raiders, Steelers, Panthers, Dolphins, twice. I count six games that they should win. Giants, jets, two times, Browns, Titans, Saints.
- [31:44]
Devin
So, but this is my point. They're honestly not that much better than those teams. So that's gonna be the thing you need. You're gonna need Drake, man, to take that step. Like, of course that's the margin with football is that you need. You need the quarterback to show it and be consistent where we all know he has talent, but talent doesn't mean shit in the NFL. Everybody has talent. So can he be consistent with the talent that he has is the biggest question. And yeah, for me, I wanted to take the over coming into this. I mean, we talked about them months ago where I felt they were the best value bet for this division. I still think that's true in some sense, even though it's come down a little bit. It's like if, if Drake make takes that next step and Josh Allen eventually takes the wrong hit, like, he's such a physical quarterback, you know, nothing lasts forever. Yeah, this would be the front runner to me. So then all of a sudden me and you have amazing odds on most likely the front runner team just because the hype is so high, like you said with this New England team and the schedule breaks that way. So I get it. I get why guys are taking a position on them. I just, I can't find it like right now. Like we already talked about, like, I, I was confident on the Bills over eleven and a half. This one I wanted to be confident on. Like, I had confidence. Like, again, my model has an eight and a half that's a full game up. So I would bet this if you want to take the over here. I'm just, I'm so nervous about Drake May. I haven't seen enough. Even in this training camp, I haven't read enough of him being consistent. Where it's like, I want to see them, you know, a week out before the season, before I put any money into this Patriots team. I really need more time, more info from the B writers just because right now it's just too much happiness and excitement with the Patriots up there. Like, everything just seems like such flowers. And Vrabel, like, had some comment to some guy in the media. Everyone went apeshit. They're like, this is what we needed. This is what we missed. And it's like, yeah, I get it, we all love Rabel, but we need to see what his actual game plan would be on the field. So, yeah, good start to it, right? They blew like you said they blew out the commanders good defense, discipline, that's what that organization needs. So the right start for the preseason. But yeah, I need to see what's going on Drake, Maine, these next, you know, three weeks to really have a confident bet on them.
- [33:49]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I lean over, but it is not even close to my favorite bet in the division. Have we gone anywhere near any of your favorite bets in the division so far? I just want to make sure.
- [34:03]
Devin
I love, like we just talked about the bill super bowl bets against super bowl matchups and they're, they're over. I love low and a half. Like okay, I got them at 13 wins and like as a, that's my, my motto as a human, I'm just like, I, I'm the opposite of you. I look at their schedule, I'm like, where do they lose? Like, they're just, they are just so much better than some of these other teams because the style they play with Joe Brady and the ball control of that running style they have on offense now. So yeah, I told you I'm drinking too much of the Kool Aid. So I was happy to hear you skeptical because I, I, I need a little bit of pullback. I've talked to other pros who pulled back a little bit because of that defense, but I'm also just like, man, it's, it's so hard to pull back. Josh Allen at this, this age in his prime. It's just, we saw it last year, like you said that was his best season ever. He just has gotten better every year and it's like, what is this? Are we about to see the next step where he literally has one to two turnovers this upcoming season? I mean that's, that's going to be the game changer for him is just if he can not fumble or throw those stupid picks in the red zone or which we saw last year, he became mvp. So that's, that's the question with them and with this team here. It's all about Drake May. Like I, I don't think neither you are either high on him or low on him. We're just no opinion. He didn't show.
- [35:14]
Chad Millman
We're just waiting. Yeah, I have a controversial favorite bet that I didn't really come to a conclusion on until I finished my research for this division this weekend. But first, quick heads up to anybody playing fantasy football this season. The ultimate 2025 draft kit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team. That means our award winning team of Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon have their rankings tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them, you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription. And right now, new subscribers can use code Flex20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com Flex Let Sean and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code FLEX20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com FLEX all right, Miami, as I said, division seven to one conference, 35 to one Super Bowl, 75 to one win total, seven and a half. I'm telling you, man, if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team no matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look at the stats for the past few years, when he is playing a full season, I know we don't like him as a quarterback. I know we would never put him in a top 10. But he is a top 10 quarterback across every single metric, superficial stats, advanced metrics, anything you look at because of who he is, because of the system he plays in. He is just too good in this offense. He is too accurate. The office is too hard to stop on short slants and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is down on them, which screams to me, give me the over seven and a half.
- [37:17]
Devin
Oh, I get it. I get it. I know some people that have taken positions on this because of what you've just talked about. This team is different with two. And you know, that's. That's the question here is can he stay healthy? And I don't think he can Chad the guys. He just doesn't know to take these hits. And even though, you know, he might dodge the head injuries and it might be something else, he just seems brittle. And, you know, that one year, I think we both get sucked into it because they were so incredibly dominant that one year. And I hate everything about this team. You probably are right. Like maybe I'm getting sucked into it, but like the two in noise, like everyone's finally getting tired of the McDaniels bullshit. Like, why are we all here? What is death? Is this death? Is this. Are we in a black hole? It's like, dude, you're a fucking football coach, man. Like, if you're winning, it's funny when you're just one and done every year and you may be back door into the playoffs and you get your asses smoked by a real contender. It's just, it gets old pretty quick. And that's my fear with them, is that their windows legit closed. And, you know, they might have, you know, one of the best front sevens in defense, but the back end is ferocious, horrible, horrible secondary and they've already had a couple injuries in the preseason to that secondary. So it's. I'm. I'm one of those people. I'm with the general public. I'm just so down on this team. But once again, they're like the Patriots. I'm not touching the wind total because of the quarterback, where if he is healthy like you're talking about, they'll get the 10 wins. Like Tua, he puts up the numbers, and they have a defense that can steal them some games at certain spots. So, again, I could see it happening. Like, I could see them being better than the Patriots, obviously better than the jets because they have a legit quarterback that we've seen do it. And in an offset system that, you know, there is one of the best running styles in all football. Like, as much as I like to give that coach, he knows how to scheme it up. Like, they are great. I mean, not in the red zone. I know we all know they're like the 32nd or 31st team when it comes to running the red zone, but everywhere else, they're really talented. So, you know, between H.N. waddle and Tyreek, if Tyreek gets his head out of his ass, that's. That's a really great offense when it's ran by Tua. So I get why you love it. Chad, I'm not going to. Not going to shit on your bet. I'm just. I'm stuck on it where it's like, my motto is, like, you. It hasn't had nine wins, and usually I would slam like, a game and a half. I want to be all over that, but I'm just so scared of Tua. Like, everything about him. Like, I know he's got the weak head, and I feel like he's got a brittle body. Just. It's not the right mix to me for betting these win totals with a.
- [39:51]
Chad Millman
Quarterback like that, if he's healthy. They play the jets twice, they play the Browns, and they play the Saints. My supposition, my bet, for lack of a better term, is, can they find four other wins in 13 games? So, like, it's like you said, the key. The key component here is, do you believe to will be healthy?
- [40:23]
Devin
And you showed us he cannot stay healthy.
- [40:25]
Chad Millman
The key component for the Bills is do you believe their defense can improve enough to help Josh Allen when it really matters? I tend to believe the Bill's defense cannot improve enough to help Josh Allen. You tend to believe it can. I tend to believe Tua can be healthy. You tend to believe he can't. And that is the difference right now between our opinions on both of these bets, in which we are basically 51, 49, right? And I'm leaning into Tua being healthy because I don't think anyone wants to make this bet.
- [41:02]
Devin
People have, though, like I told you, like, the. The public is totally out and the media is totally honest.
- [41:07]
Chad Millman
But the wise guys.
- [41:08]
Devin
The wise guys are taking position on them because they're like you. They think it's been an undervalued team.
- [41:12]
Chad Millman
I'm a fucking wise guy. I don't even need to know what you're talking about and what you're hearing to know that the Dolphins, with everyone hating on them and what two of stats have been when he's healthy to know over seven and a half is the right side.
- [41:27]
Devin
But I told you, the wise guys are on all these fucking teams. Like, they. Like the Patriots, too. That's why, again, we're about to get to this.
- [41:32]
Chad Millman
Guys don't know anything.
- [41:33]
Devin
This is the team, the Jets.
- [41:37]
Chad Millman
All right, let's talk about the Jets.
- [41:38]
Devin
Let's get to them as long as we can.
- [41:40]
Chad Millman
Recognize that I'm on the right side as the wise guys with the Dolphins. Jets.
- [41:45]
Devin
You're a gambler who bets on the Jets. Have you not learned anything about betting the jets are gonna come back? No, they're not. Three are never gonna come back. They're never gonna.
- [41:54]
Chad Millman
14 to 1 the win to win the division, conference, 75 to 1 Super Bowl, 200 to 1 win total, five and a half. So it's trick. It's really tricky, right, because there's not a lot of reason to be optimistic about the jets. And this is part bias and part thinking. It's. It's bias for me in terms of how I feel about defensive stats when it comes to betting. I think they're vitally important, and I oftentimes think that they are undervalued in creating a point spread and in how bookmakers look at them and how fans look at defensive stats, especially things that the jets have proven to be good at when they had good coaching. They've got a dominant defensive tackle in Quinn Williams. They have a potentially dominant corner in Sauce Gardner. There is always sneaky upside from this defense. For me, it was a very good defense when Robert Sala was coaching it, and then it cratered. I like what Aaron Glenn did with the Lions when they had nobody because everybody was injured. So those are the positives to me. But I'm not going to make a bet on anything regarding this team because their offense is just so bad.
- [43:18]
Devin
I'm, I, I'm drinking the Kool Aid. I can't believe it. And it was funny. I was, Dude, I, I know I've been trying to fight it off, but I've been just buying so many shares all summer in fantasy football of Justin Fields and I needed to see one minute of him in preseason running that touchdown to be like, this is the vision. This is the vision of this stupid ass team getting to eight wins. Eight and nine. Somehow with Aaron Glenn, because I do believe in him as a coach. Man, like that Detroit defense was held again, held together with bubblegum and I don't know how they function. That line's defense could not believe they were the one seed. Like he held it together. His coaching is so good. Like his schemes, his adjustments again.
- [44:04]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but you're talking about, maybe there.
- [44:06]
Devin
Was some dude in the background that's giving him all this data, but Aaron Glenn, everything I'm reading, I love the way he talks to this team, how the guys talk about him. You know, we'll see the scheme. But it's like five and a half wins in this division feels very, very dangerously low. Like this is, should be six and a half, seven and a half for a team that in my mind is no different than that Patriots team or this Miami team where it's like, if Justin Fields with all this potential, again, this guy, I know Bear fans don't want to hear it because he was a loser and he just could not win any of these games. But he was like a top three, top four running quarterback in the league. Like his level of athletic talent, that was never the question. The question was can he become a pocket passer? And I feel like we have our answer there. He is not a pocket passer. So if they go into it being honest with him and he's being honest with himself, this team has an obscene amount of upside. Because what you just talked about, Chad, you have the D line, you have half of the field locked down if Sauce can. Because to me, Sauce fell off a cliff last year. And I don't know if that was him being, you know, off the field distractions. He just didn't care because no one else on the team cared. But if you, if he can be what he was his first year in the league and be a shutdown corner, that's a huge deal for this defense. Like that's, that can change the whole identity because Aaron Glenn's never had that type of talent. I mean, again, they had some of the Best safeties on football in Detroit and. But they didn't really have great cornerbacks. Like, they had so many injuries across the board. So, yeah, I just. I can't even believe it was five and a half. And I hate that I loved it right away and I knew my model was going to love it because of what you just talked about. Like, I'm so sc. I'm so skewed to defenses. And the way the league has gone with these running quarterbacks, like, they just having a guy that can get you a first down with his legs on third or fourth down, it's become the cheat code. I mean, we're seeing in this preseason, Chad, we keep talking about these kickoffs. Overs are 14 and 2. I believe in this preseason, it's changed. The game has changed. Starting at your own 35, start your own 40 has changed the game. And that's why Justin Fields, if he can be true with himself and realize he's not a pocket quarterback, they need to keep him either moving outside the port the. The pocket or, you know, doing these read options. That's going to be the key to success for this jets team. So, yeah, they're. They're a team I love because it's going to be, you know, five and a half. You're never out of this bet. If you have two wins with six weeks to go, you can lie to yourself and be like, this jets team, they can sneak. They can sneak out a couple wins here in the season, getting me over this five and a half. So I am shocked. I didn't know this one. It's like they're just. They. Everything about them. New coach. The new coach Bump. Everyone's giving it to the Patriots, but no one's giving it to this jets team at all. I think that's interesting where it's like, Aaron Glenn, man, he's. He's not that different than Variable in some aspects of his motivator of men. But I get where you're coming from because we've seen Variable do it. We've never seen Aaron Glenn do it.
- [47:04]
Chad Millman
Well, that's exactly why, hey, we haven't seen. We haven't seen Glenn do it. As a head coach. Like, you loved what I saw with the Lions. Like, you totally lean into defense, usually leaning to defense, especially when I think there's value in the win total, and I don't think that's being accounted for. I think the bookmakers are seeing the public and saying it's the Jets. It's Justin Fields on his third team. He's washout, he can't throw and it's a whiny fan base and everyone is thinking Aaron Rodgers is gone. This team can't get out of its own way. They're going to be losers. Right? So I totally think there's value on the five and a half. I, I just didn't jump on it because Aaron Glenn is a defensive coach. That's where I think he will really put his stamp. I don't know what they're going to do offensively and even if they do do well offensively, Justin Fields as a running quarterback cannot finish a season. You know, we talk about tua, right? It's the same thing with Justin Fields last year. Justin Fields was great with the Steelers, but he didn't finish with the Steelers.
- [48:15]
Devin
And that was, that was, that was an injuries, that was. Tomlin had a promise, he made a promise.
- [48:20]
Chad Millman
There was a Russell Wilson promise. But also a little bit of the Steeles were winning.
- [48:25]
Devin
But despite Justin Fields. I know where you're coming from. Despite Justin Fields, but again, he wasn't hurting them either. Like he went 5 and 2 or something.
- [48:33]
Chad Millman
Are we, are we saying that the, the model for the jets now is what the Steelers did last year? Only we think it can extend over the course of a season.
- [48:42]
Devin
To me, Pittsburgh was saying to him, don't, don't let us lose because of you. So they were really pulling it back where Aaron Glenn's like apparently being like all blown smoke up his ass, being like you're one of the top guys, we're going to release you, we're not going to try to contain you. We want you to be one of these guys that's, you know, slinging it, running around with it. So again, I think they're totally from the viewpoint of they'd be happy, the Jets, I think if they went, you know, 3 and 14. But if they can, if they can unlock something here in Justin Fields, right. They gave him a two year deal. I believe if they can get to eight, nine wins, that's, that's something to build on. Go head into next year. So that's just, that's my hesitation here where it's like I totally get where you're coming from, Justin Fields and injuries and everything like that. It's just when a new coach comes in, you have a defense. I usually, I drink the Kool Aid on those type of teams.
- [49:33]
Chad Millman
All right. Simon's favorite division bet is the Buffalo bills over 11 and a half. Mine is Miami over 7 and a half. He also likes the jets over 5 and a half. I probably could be convinced to join them on that enthusiastically, but we're not going to jump in on the New England Patriots. The favorites will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page when we talk NFC East. Also go subscribe Ealchad Millman. Get loads of extra content there. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [50:23]
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- [51:04]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jay Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire 2 Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [51:22]
Devin
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [51:28]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [51:35]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [51:36]
Devin
We choose to go to the moon.
- [51:38]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new Friction podcast. One Small Step about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [51:47]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [51:49]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz starring me, John Lithgow, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:05]
Manny
Why are TSA rules so confusing?
- [52:07]
Devin
You got a hoodie on. Take it all.
- [52:09]
Manny
I'm Manny.
- [52:10]
Devin
I'm Noah, this is Devin and we're.
- [52:12]
Manny
Best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing, where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? I can't expect what to do now if the rule was the same, Go off on me. I deserve it, you know.
- [52:25]
Devin
Lock him up.
- [52:25]
Manny
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:32]
Devin
No such thing.
- [52:34]
iHeart Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.