The Herd with Colin Cowherd

The Favorites: AFC North Betting Preview

Date: August 22, 2025
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Hosts: Chad Millman (Action Network), Simon Hunter (Professional Bettor)

Overview

In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter wrap up their preseason division previews with a deep dive into the AFC North from a betting perspective. They analyze each team’s outlook, offer strong opinions and actionable betting recommendations, and discuss how coaching, rosters, and off-field drama could impact win totals and futures markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Baltimore Ravens: High Ceiling, Brutal Schedule

Segment: [02:31–12:08]

• Chad’s Enthusiasm: Chad is "falling more and more in love" with the Ravens, highlighting their perennial front-office strength, recent defensive improvements (adding Jair Alexander, drafting Malaki Starks, and hiring Chuck Pagano as secondary coach), and adding more offensive weapons for Lamar Jackson such as DeAndre Hopkins.

  • "What I love about the Ravens is they don’t get complacent...and oh, by the way, they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson." ([05:02])

• Achilles Heel: Both hosts agree playoff performance under Lamar is still the big concern.

  • "None of it will matter if they can’t figure out how to lose Lamar in the right way in a playoff game." ([05:51])

• Simon’s Model: Simon acknowledges they might be the most talented roster in the AFC, but questions betting into them now given their daunting opening stretch: @Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, @Kansas City, Houston, Rams, then the bye.

  • "Why rush to the window right now? ...I think you could get potentially better odds here on this team." ([09:07])
  • Lamar as an underdog is historically strong against the spread, but Simon advises patience due to the tough schedule and general public hype driving poor betting value.
  • "Super Bowl +650? Come on. There’s no value in betting that right now." ([11:44])

2. Cincinnati Bengals: Talent Wasted by Dysfunction

Segment: [12:08–21:50]

• Chad’s Take: Management failures overshadow Joe Burrow’s talent. Chad criticizes the Shemar Stewart draft pick and contract snafu, Trey Hendrickson alienation, failure to improve the offensive line, and general discord.

  • "It’s very possible he goes down as like Dan Marino—an incredible career, early Super Bowl appearance, never gets back because the franchise is so incompetent." ([13:13])
  • "Give me the under nine and a half." ([15:23])

• Simon’s Model: Projects only 8 wins for Cincinnati; adamant Burrow’s elite ability can’t mask an eroding roster.

  • "Wins are a QB stat. Without Joe Burrow, they’re getting maybe two wins, three wins. Joe will carry this corpse of a team to 8, 9, 10 wins..." ([16:20])
  • Argues the team is "constructed by a 13-year-old," paying only for the triplets (Burrow, Chase, Higgins) and skimping elsewhere.
  • "I just cannot get there with this Cincinnati team. I know it sucks to be doom and gloom...their window feels like it’s closed and it’s going to be a 3–4 year rebuild because they failed on so many different levels." ([19:47])

• Betting Recommendations: Both hosts strongly endorse Bengals under 9.5 wins; Simon adds +185 to miss the playoffs.

  • "I can’t find the games where I’m like, 'Oh yeah, the Bengals should easily win that game.'" ([21:21]) — Chad

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tomlin Is the X-Factor, But Roster is Suspect

Segment: [26:33–34:19]

• Chad’s View: Acknowledges classic Mike Tomlin factor—the only reason the win total is 8.5. The defense is expensive but aging and dealing with contract drama (T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward). The offense hinges on Aaron Rodgers, whose best years are behind him.

  • "Their greatest asset is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins...otherwise, if you judge this just on talent, I think it’s probably 7.5." ([27:02])

• Simon’s Model: Model spits out 7 wins without accounting for Tomlin; notes even kickers are embroiled in drama and that relying on older vets and a faded Rodgers is not a path to success.

  • "When I model this team out, my model doesn’t get the Tomlin effect...he’s a glitch" ([29:02])
  • Warns that the plan of paying old players (slay, Ramsey, Hayward) has rarely worked out.
  • "This is Pittsburgh’s window...maybe one or two years here left. They have a very old expensive defense..." ([32:06])

• Betting Recommendations: No strong play; lean under, but suggests waiting for value on a mid-season adjusted under. Simon still prefers heavy bets elsewhere in the division.

4. Cleveland Browns: Most Undervalued, Best Bet

Segment: [34:21–41:34]

• Chad’s Take: Calls Browns’ +3000 division odds and 4.5 win total “tricky” but can’t look away from the defense; skepticism about Joe Flacco starting but notes the structure is there for upsets.

  • "Their defense is so good, especially the defensive line...but the offense was just so incompetent..." ([34:47])

• Simon’s View: Very bullish — “I fucking love this Browns team. Give me that over four and a half. I love this team so much.” ([35:48])

  • Praises Flacco's professionalism and Stefanski’s coaching. Thinks the offensive line and Jerry Jeudy are undervalued, and the running game has enough depth to offset drama.
  • On defense: “This defense might be really good…you literally can’t practice when Miles Garrett’s on the field because he ruins every single play.” ([38:09])
  • Believes public bias is underrating them due to last year’s scars and the QB shuffle.
  • "This is a team I’ll bet the adjusted total, like I’ll adjust to take the 6.5 at +200 over...I have five and a half wins (in my model), so it's not crazy, but my computer doesn’t really understand how important it is to have a veteran quarterback like Flacco." ([40:06])

• Betting Recommendations:

  • Top Bet: Browns over 4.5 wins; also, take a shot at their huge division odds.
  • "You have to throw a dollar on this...there’s a world where Lamar gets banged up…the Browns could get there." ([39:34])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chad (Ravens):
  "I want to do everything with this team. I want to bet him at every level. And I still worry about Lamar and not being, you know, the player that he is during the regular season when we get to a playoff game." ([05:51])
• Simon (Bengals):
  "This team is the definition of wins are a QB stat. Without Joe Burrow, they're getting two wins, three wins..." ([16:20])
• Simon (Steelers):
  "My model doesn’t get the Tomlin effect. You just nailed it. Like, my model has him at seven wins, so I have him at a game and a half below it. But a computer doesn’t understand that Tomlin is...he’s a glitch. There’s nothing like him coaching-wise." ([29:02])
• Simon (Browns):
  "I fucking love this Browns team. Give me that over four and a half. I love this team so much...Joe is not nothing like...he’s the consummate pro. Doesn’t say much. My favorite line...they were like, 'Yeah, you’re gonna mentor these guys and help them out.' He goes, 'No, this is my job. I’m here to win.'" ([35:48])
• Chad (Division Summation):
  "Seems like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Browns over four and a half, the Bengals under nine and a half. I also like a Ravens Super Bowl matchup...as part of my Super Bowl matchup round robin." ([41:34])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:31] AFC North Overview & Ravens Hype
• [06:15] Defensive Adjustments in Baltimore
• [09:07] Ravens' Tough Schedule/Be Patient Betting
• [12:08] Bengals: Dysfunction and Burrow’s Plight
• [15:23] Bengals Under Discussion & Burrow Critique
• [21:21] Difficulty Finding Bengals “Guaranteed” Wins
• [26:33] Pittsburgh Steelers: Roster Overview
• [29:02] Tomlin’s Unique Impact
• [32:06] Steelers' Aging Defense/Windows Closing
• [34:21] Browns: The Case for the Over
• [38:09] Miles Garrett Practice Anecdote
• [39:34] Browns Division Longshot Play
• [41:34] Best Bets Recap & Ravens Futures Strategy

Key Betting Recommendations

1. Cleveland Browns — OVER 4.5 wins (“I fucking love this Browns team. Give me that over four and a half.”) ([35:48])
2. Cincinnati Bengals — UNDER 9.5 wins; also, +185 to miss playoffs
3. Baltimore Ravens — Wait for Better Odds (Avoid win total/divisional/Super Bowl now, look for value as schedule unfolds)
4. Super Bowl Matchups: Favor pairing Ravens with NFC contenders (Ravens-Lions, Ravens-Eagles, Ravens-49ers, Ravens-Rams) rather than just betting Ravens to win outright

Tone & Language

Insightful, frank, sometimes irreverent, and seasoned with blunt humor — both hosts offer sharp betting observations and aren’t afraid to call out public biases or front office incompetence. There’s strong camaraderie and playful, but in-depth, critique.

Summary: For Listeners & Bettors

You’ll walk away from this episode with a clear grasp of why the Browns might be the best value in the AFC North, why the Bengals’ shining core may not be enough to overcome internal chaos, why the Ravens are likely for the playoffs but currently unbettable at short odds, and why Steelers fans should temper expectations despite Tomlin’s wizardry. The best actionable picks: Browns over four and a half wins, Bengals under nine and a half, and creative (not straight) Ravens futures.