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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Manny
Why are TSA rules so confusing?
- [00:07]
Noah
You got a hoodie on. Take it all.
- [00:09]
Manny
I'm Manny. I'm Noah.
- [00:11]
Noah
This is Devin.
- [00:12]
Manny
And we're best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? Well, I can't expect what to do now if the rule was the same, go off on me, I deserve it.
- [00:24]
Noah
You know, Lock him up.
- [00:25]
Manny
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. No Such Thing.
- [00:35]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy Truthers believe in?
- [00:52]
Chad Millman
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [00:55]
AJ Jacobs
That's right.
- [00:55]
Noah
They give you the answers and you still blew it.
- [00:58]
AJ Jacobs
The puzzler. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:07]
Matt
Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama.
- [01:13]
Co-host of All the Smoke
Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking, you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up and you get a chance for people to unpack and get beyond race.
- [01:28]
Matt
All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.
- [01:36]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [01:54]
Noah
Should you? That's what the real question is. Should you stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [02:00]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [02:15]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites the podcast part of the Volume Podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Let's welcome in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professor, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:30]
Noah
Chad. How we doing?
- [02:32]
Chad Millman
Dude, we are so close to having real football. Two weeks from today is the kickoff for the 2025 NFL season which means that today is our last division to preview. We are doing the n the AFC North. We got the grittiest, most blue collar franchises in the NFL and the Bengals. Reminder, I'm letting everybody know which divisions everybody is playing in their schedule so they get a sense of it. AFC north in its conference plays the AFC east and they also play the NFC North. Baltimore Ravens. I, doing my research, started falling more and more in love with this team. We're going to get to the Achilles heel, which is always the same division. Minus 160 conference plus 325 Super bowl plus 650 win total 11 and a half. Simon, do you want to hear why I absolutely love the Ravens right now? C Bueno.
- [04:03]
Noah
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.
- [04:07]
Chad Millman
This is a team that, you know, generationally has had an incredible coaching staff and an incredible personnel department. Right. Their front office has been legit. That's why there has been no transition for them in the first half of last year. Clearly their defense was terrible, right? Zach or the the new defensive coordinator had Kyle Hamilton playing closer to the line of scrimmage and this team was getting burned so often. They were giving up so many points as and as a better we had a lot of chances. It was clear early on that they were not able to maintain leads and we were able to bet against them because they kept giving up the back door and their spreads were so high. Like the public is always on the Ravens. Then they made some significant personnel adjustments in the middle of the year. Specifically Kyle Hamilton moving back into a more traditional safety role, defending against sort of the long explosive plays that had been killing them. After going 5, 5 and 1 the first 11 year 11 games against the spread, they went 5 and 1 in the final six. Amazing, right? What I love about the Ravens is they don't get complacent. What did they do? Their secondary? Kyle Hamilton masked some of the weaknesses they had. So what did they do? They added Jair Alexander from the Packers. They drafted Malachi Starks from Georgia. They added Chuck Pagano as a secondary coach. Right. They just got better defensively. And oh, by the way, they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson. So amazing. Love this team. And then none of it will matter if they can't figure out how to lose Lamar in the right way in a playoff game. Right. So like I want to do everything with this team. I want to bet him at every level. And I still worry about Lamar and not being, you know, the player that he, that he is during the regular season when we get to a playoff game.
- [06:15]
Noah
Yeah. And the the biggest thing jumped out me at that batch report. Again, I'm not around. Just Joe Schmo normal people. That often was the Ravens hype. Everyone, all these Joe Public people love the Ravens super bowl bet, right? That's. That's who these Eagles fans think they're gonna be playing super bowl this upcoming season. I'm just like, where does that confidence come from? Why do you have more confidence a little more than you do in Josh Allen Mahomes? And I think it is because what you just talked about, Chad, that this team once again is absolutely stacked. And you know, this is my pushback on the Hertz disrespect was two years ago, you could argue that Ravens team that lost at home to Kansas City was one of the greatest teams ever in anyone's model. Like, I know DVOA had them as I think a third best team ever record in their database. You know, this is one of the best franchises at drafting ever. Like, they consistently draft so well. And Chad just talked about they attack free agency every year as well. So you don't think they have the money and they cheat in other areas, right? Like their D line, their D tackles might not be the best, but they're just so dominant in other areas, right? They might have the arguably the best safety and the best linebacker in all football. So it's like when you have Roquan, when you have someone that dominant, someone who can tackle so well, it changes the dynamic of the team, right? That makes teams have to pass the ball. So that's what they went out, Chad. They went out and try to attack the secondary. Something they viewed early in the year. Last year, that was a weakness. Like Chad said, they were awful at defense. First eight weeks of the season. And, you know, their head, their coordinator, the D.C. i think it was my age. I think he was 34, 35 years old. So it makes sense. Okay? This guy is in over his head. He apparently reached out to other people and had people come in and help him out. And that's a beautiful thing. If you can be humble and take outside help and never think you have all the answers, it's only going to make you better as a person grow. And that's what happened with their defense. It grew, it got better. Like you said, towards the end of the season, they were probably the best defense left in the afc. Yeah, but the issue they ran into was, you know, Josh Allen, he showed up and that was the issue they ran into was like, okay, you guys are a great defense. You're going against the mvp there. There never is a great defense to stop the mvp, right? When the MVP is Clicking. It doesn't matter how great and dominant your defense was that year, it just, it's not going to live up to that moment. And it sucked for them. They did, they got stops into that game, right. And it was all in Lamar's hands and, and yes, Mark Andrews dropped it, but it was a little too late. Like even if they score, we talked about there was too much time left. So, you know, me and Chad, this, this is a long winded answer that I love this team as well as you do, but this is another team that I'm happy to be patient on because we're starting NFL season starts in two weeks. If you've already missed the boat on them divisional odds and if you don't want to bet the win total, I would honestly wait because of the way their schedule starts. I know if you look at this chat, but they literally start at Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, at Kansas City, Houston, Rams, then the bi week. So to me, pretty simple position there.
- [09:24]
Chad Millman
Hold on, hold on. You're missing one game. The juggernaut Chicago Bears.
- [09:31]
Noah
What, after the bye week?
- [09:32]
Chad Millman
I think so, yeah.
- [09:33]
Noah
I think they'll be pray. I think we'll be prepared for that one. But yeah, I just, I look at their schedule, it's like, why rush to the window right now? Can we be patient here and hope, you know, Pittsburgh has a great start. The Bengals, who we both don't really believe in, come out on a hot start. So it's like, you know, everyone in the world. Every drill public I talk to is drinking the, the Ravens Kool Aid. I think it's a nice team to step back from. Let them hopefully start 500 or you know, even 4 and 2. I think you could get potentially better odds here on this team. So yeah, I'm, I'm happy to be patient on them just because what an insane start to your season. Like you're literally going through the three, arguably the three best teams without not including the Eagles in all football. So yeah, it's, it's tough where I remember like months ago I almost got sucked in right away betting them week one at the Buffalo Bills because it's like, oh, it's Lamar as a dog. Me and Chad talk all the time. If lamar is under 3, he's like 20 and 3 against the spread. Something crazy when he's an underdog or under three. So it's, it's a tough start to the season. But we just talked about they're. I think they're number two or number three in my model. They are insanely Talented people want to and moan that, you know, we disrespect Lamar every year and we're, we're too low on Lamar. He ain't the number one guy, he ain't the number two guy. And to me, he ain't the number three guy because he just does not show up in the playoffs. And he has these turnovers, which again, last year he fixed it. I think he only had four or five turnovers all season. He has two inexplicable, never happens, Lamar turnovers against that Bills team. So that's, that's the issue, people. I think you guys are all too much in denial of shifting the blame where it has to be shifted on Lamar. Like he has the team around him. They've supported him, they've gone out, they've gotten the weapons. They went out and got Derek Henry. Like Chad said, we joked about Hopkins. Yes, he's not a game changer, but it's a cog in the machine like you. If you have him as your third receiver behind Zay Flowers, you know, Isaiah likely should be back by week two or three. Him and Mark Andrews, those are two really good tight ends. So, yeah, people can tell I'm hyped up about this team. It's just be patient. I just think that started the season so brutal. Super bowl six plus 650. Come on. There's no value in betting that right now. So to me, I have no bet on them win total wise, divisional wise, I would say just be patient. If you want to throw their division and with other teams and parlays, I got no issue with that. But betting it straight, I just, I can't do it with this team in this division just because it's, it's going to be better value to me by the time it gets there by a week.
- [12:08]
Chad Millman
You just mentioned the Bengals. I have nothing more to say about the Ravens other than what you said, like love them. My final note in sort of of my notes in the script is their schedule is fucking brutal. And so it's, it's, it's a hard way to start the year. The Bengals, meanwhile, super interesting value to me. Probably not in the way people expect because of how much I love Joe Burrow.
- [12:35]
Noah
The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that they started it. With a die hard commitment.
- [12:42]
Chad Millman
The Bengals battled tenaciously. Division plus 260 conference plus 850. Super Bowl 18 to one win total, nine and a half. You downgraded Joe Burrow out of your top four QBs entirely, right? To me, the management continues to find ways to completely kill any Mojo and just put more and more obstacles in front of Joe Burrow, who it's very possible he goes down as like Dan Marino, where he's got an incredible career and has that early super bowl appearance and never gets back because I think the franchise is so incompetent. And we saw it on display this entire off season. They draft Shemar Stewart, then they put an unprecedented clause in his contract that he cannot sign, which leads to acrimony and a bad holdout for. For a guy, by the way, who had zero production in college. They basically reached in the first round for a combine warrior. They just drafted the 2025 version of Mike Mamula. And I will go back to what an NFL scout said to me, who I spoke to after the draft, and his comment to me was, NFL coach or college coaches, they want to win, too. They're not going to build schemes that don't include their best player unless that best player is not good enough to produce. Shemar Stewart was the best talent, the best athlete on that Texanian team and did not produce. Meanwhile, the guy who is supposed to be on the opposite side and getting some relief from Shemar Stewart, Trey Hendrickson. Like, they've gone out of their way to alienate their best defensive player on a really, really bad defense because that defense is why they missed the playoffs last year. And I don't think they've done anything to sort of immediately fix it other than adding Al golden, the defensive coordinator who had been with Notre Dame. So that's terrible. And Simon, the last thing, their offensive line got worse and it was already the worst offensive line in the NFL. So they're not protecting their quarterback. They're not doing anything to get the opposing offenses off the field, and they're not doing anything to help their players find some peace and happiness with the franchise. Give me the under nine and a half.
- [15:29]
Noah
Yeah, you know it's bad when Chad goes, yeah, they did out add Al Golden. Like, who the fuck cares about Al Golden?
- [15:35]
Chad Millman
That's what I mean. Like, I know have some talent.
- [15:38]
Noah
Brutal. Yeah, brutal. So it's like they're. They're literally. It's as if they got. Someone slashed him with a sword and they literally put the smallest band aid possible on that gash.
- [15:47]
Chad Millman
And it's like, what the happened? Like, how did they. How did they every. Like, I as I did the research and like, we all have our biases. Sorry to cut you off, but like, we always get so enamored with Quarterbacks and think they can, to your point, band aid over everything. And we love Joe Burrow, but you were ahead of this. Like, this team is just not good enough to do anything, even keep Joe Burrow upright. It's just not going to be enough to have Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins. Like, it's just not there.
- [16:20]
Noah
And this team is the definition of Windsor or QB stat. Because without Joe Burrow, they're getting maybe two wins, three wins. So Joe, he will carry this corpse of a team to eight, nine, ten wins. And if you want to take that over nine and a half, go ahead. But to me, I have him at eight wins, so I have him a full game and a half below it. And, you know, God damn, were people mad that I had Joe Burrow number six as my quarterback rankings. And I get it. Like, no one's doubting the talent level of Joe Burrow. But you can see, like, some of those sacks he takes. That's on Joe. And I heard people complain. Well, he did show up. Look at his stats against the Chiefs and the Eagles, all these teams last year. You need to go back and watch the games. You need to go back and watch that Chiefs game where it's third and six, there's two minutes left, he has the ball. If he gets a first down, the game is basically over. And he misses the hot read and he takes a really bad sack on a very easy to read blitz coming to him when he's going against that Baltimore Ravens team, which, you know, that game haunts me. Last year he had an inescapable turnover. Again, that falls on the Joe. So it's once again coming to the season. I get why people are so in love with Joe Burrow and the weapons he has him. It's a fantasy football team. This again. The joke is this team was constructed by a 13 year old. Like, they were like, okay, let's pay T. Higgins, let's pay Chase, let's pay our quarterback, and then let's not pay anybody else. Let's just go cheap on every other position and, you know, let our best safety walk. Chad, just talk about letting Trey Hendricks walk. I can't believe it's real. I really can't believe they didn't pay Trey. Where, you know, he's been open that he's. He loves the Bengals. He grew up a Bengals fan and he was willing to take a discount to stay. He just wants guaranteed money, which you should pay him. You should pay him that guaranteed money because the splits between him on the Field and off the field for your defense is so extreme. But they're not, they're just very stubborn and it's bad ownership. And their window was that Joe Burrow rookie year, because he had the stud quarterback and his number one receiver and paid him nothing. You could have paid the rest of your team and you let guys walk. You didn't pay certain players. So yeah, this is to me a very done, dumb Joe Public bet. If you've taken any positive position on this Bengals team, it's. You clearly never looked into what their defense was going to be. You clearly overthought what their quarterback position is. Where I just said like, again, it doesn't sound great to you. Joe Burrow is a top five, top six quarterback to many people. That is very impressive for this kid. But we talk all the time. You have to build it out around him. And they failed him on the offensive line. They fed him on the defense. So yeah, I, I'm on their under, I'm on their plus 185 to not make the playoffs. And would I be shocked if they can backdoor the way and no, because we just talked about Joe Burrows, one of the, you know, best quarterbacks in football. But how are they going to hold leads? They, they, they will, I'm telling you people, they won't be able to stop anybody. And Joe, just like he did last year, will try to do too much and he won't make mistakes. So we saw it last year. As long as they play bad. 500, they were dominant. As soon as they played a team above.500 or a playoff team, they got rolled. And that's just what it's going to be like this season. So, you know, they could get fluky wins here and there, they could get to this win till they could back their way into the playoffs. But you know, super bowl winning their conference, like, they just, they feel so far below the Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens. Hell, you can even throw the Broncos in there if you want. I just, I, I just cannot get there with this Cincinnati team. So I know it sucks to be doom and gloom on them. We both love Joe and it's a really fun. But their, their window feels like it's closed and it's going to be a three, four year rebuild because they failed on so many different levels with that offensive line, that defense. So yeah, again, it's, it's so negative right now, but of all the teams this division, they feel like, I mean, we're going to talk about Pittsburgh in a second, but they feel like they're a team whose window is closed and they're going to need to rebuild for three, four years. And that's, that's exactly. We don't want to be in this division that, you know, right now the Ravens just feel like five years ahead of them.
- [20:30]
Chad Millman
So you mentioned the schedule and I thought you, you pointed it out brilliantly. They got bad teams. They got the Browns.
- [20:39]
Noah
Yeah.
- [20:39]
Chad Millman
They got the jets, they got the Jags, who are an unknown quantity right now. Every other game on their roster because they've got the NFC north feels like a 50, 50 proposition between having to play each of their teams twice, especially the Ravens, and having to play all of the NFC north teams. Those are six really hard games.
- [21:09]
Noah
Yeah.
- [21:09]
Chad Millman
For this team.
- [21:10]
Noah
I can't find the wins.
- [21:11]
Chad Millman
I can't find. I can't find.
- [21:12]
Noah
People are giving me about having the eight wins. That's being nice.
- [21:15]
Chad Millman
I feel like I can't fight the guaranteed wins. Like in every schedule.
- [21:18]
Noah
Right.
- [21:18]
Chad Millman
Elite teams, you can find the guaranteed wins.
- [21:21]
Noah
Yeah.
- [21:22]
Chad Millman
I can't find the games where I'm like, oh, yeah, the Bengals should easily win that game in any of those. Except for the Browns and the Jets.
- [21:31]
Noah
That's fair.
- [21:32]
Chad Millman
That's it. But that's not when you want to be betting on a team to get to double digit wins. I'm glad we're on the same side on that. I didn't know which way you were going to go because I know you're a little down on Burrow. But you know, we don't talk about this, so I never.
- [21:45]
Noah
Yeah, me being down Burroughs, I have him at number six in my top 10 quarterbacks.
- [21:50]
Chad Millman
Listen, quick heads up. For anybody playing fantasy football this season, the ultimate 2025 draft kit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team. That means our award winning team of Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon have their rankings tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them, you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription. And right now, new subscribers can use code FLEX20 or for $20 off at fantasy labs.com/flex. Let Sean and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code Flex20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com Flex Imagine that you're on an.
- [22:31]
Manny
Airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [22:34]
Podcast Announcer
Attention passengers, the pilot is having an.
- [22:38]
Chad Millman
Emergency and we need someone, anyone, to land this plane.
- [22:42]
Manny
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control. And they're saying like, okay, pull this until this, pull that, turn this. It's just I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [22:56]
Noah
I'm Noah. This is Devin.
- [22:57]
Manny
And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [23:06]
Noah
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise. They need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [23:13]
Manny
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway. I'm looking at this thing.
- [23:20]
Noah
See?
- [23:21]
Manny
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:29]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [23:30]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [23:32]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.
- [23:35]
Noah
It's One small step.
- [23:38]
John Lithgow
It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [23:42]
Matt
You're a great pilot, Buzz. As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.
- [23:46]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.
- [23:51]
Podcast Announcer
To depression, alcohol abuse, and suicide.
- [23:54]
John Lithgow
We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.
- [23:57]
Noah
What do you say, Buzz?
- [23:58]
Jake Hofer
Another beer.
- [23:59]
John Lithgow
And triumph over addiction.
- [24:01]
AJ Jacobs
Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.
- [24:04]
John Lithgow
Good luck to you and become a true hero.
- [24:06]
Noah
Buzz and I will proceed into the.
- [24:08]
John Lithgow
Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.
- [24:15]
Noah
Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.
- [24:17]
John Lithgow
Starring me, John Lithgow.
- [24:19]
Noah
Can you put it through?
- [24:21]
John Lithgow
Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:27]
Co-host of All the Smoke
Columbia.
- [24:29]
Podcast Announcer
Get fired up, y'.
- [24:30]
Noah
All.
- [24:30]
Podcast Announcer
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my fav people and an incomparable soccer icon Megan Rapinoe to the show, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance, Sue, Bird watching former teammates retire, and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final. And the locker room. I really, really like you. Just, you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar Az Foot. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And, you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [25:34]
Chad Millman
Hello, puzzlers.
- [25:35]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy. Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [25:56]
Chad Millman
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [25:58]
AJ Jacobs
That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it. It was rigged?
- [26:03]
Noah
Yeah, ever since I was first on, people are like, they give you the answers, right? And then there's the other ones, which are like, they give you the answers and you still blew it.
- [26:13]
AJ Jacobs
Don't miss Jeopardy. Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [26:34]
Chad Millman
The Pittsburgh Steelers.
- [26:37]
Noah
All right, hit that horn, babe. Let's dance.
- [26:40]
Chad Millman
Steelers plus 550 to win the division. 20 to one to win the Conference Super Bowl. 40 to one win total. Eight and a half. Feels like we're getting a Mike Tomlin bounce at the eight and a half. Their defense is great if. If everyone is fat and happy, right? And right now they're not. T.J. watt, who, by the way, is 31 years old, has a new deal. Cam Hayward, a hold in only been sort of doing light practice work, but has said he'll sit out games. Got Aaron Rodgers, obviously, who has not been Aaron Rodgers for years. Their greatest asset is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins. And that's why I think their win total is even at eight and a half. Like, otherwise, if you judge this just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half. I think, like, if I were betting this team, I'd probably wait until the second half of the year and see if I can get an adjusted under because the first half of the year, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahawks, Colts, like, not terrible. But the second half of the year, they got Bills, Ravens, twice. Lions gets harder. What do you think of this?
- [28:04]
Noah
Yeah, just an interesting built team. Like, you talk about the defense, I think it's 160 million that they've spent on their defense. And, you know, being an Eagles fan, I think we're at maybe 70 million. So it's like, are they $90 million better than the Eagles defense? Probably not, but that's how it is. When Chad talked about, you're paying older guys big contracts, and, you know, Cam Hayward, I'd be ripping my fucking hair out if I worked in that front office. Who the fuck does this guy think he is? Signing a new deal last year, now coming in a year later being all pissy, saying, I outplayed that contract the year before.
- [28:40]
Chad Millman
It is weird, right?
- [28:42]
Noah
Bizarre. There must be something else, because everything you've ever read about Cam is he's like, the man. He's a football guy. Team first. Yeah, just the man. But, you know, what is he, 36, 37? He gets it where he's like, that was probably as good as it gets last year. And if I can get one more payday, I might as well try it and try to be a piece of shit about it. Where it's. Everyone else on that team is just like, dude, we just paid tj. We've signed all these guys. I mean, even, like, Even their kickers having some drama about money. So it's like, what is going on with Pittsburgh? They try to be good and pay their guys, and now all these other players are thrown in their face being like, I want more. I want. I deserve more. It's tough. And again, this is another team that I wanted to be on them as a sneaky team in this division where it's like, you know, everyone's talking Ravens, Bengals, Steelers. If Rodgers, you know, again, as much as people left him for dead, he did look so much better that second half of the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing off his back foot, where for the first eight, nine weeks, he did not do that. He was very timid. And, you know, we know the deal. This is not Brady going to the Bucs. Rodgers is not built that way. He doesn't play the same style. And, you know, this is a guy that relied a lot on his athleticism, and that's gone. So now we're sitting with a what, Chad? A bottom. You know, not top 20, but maybe top 25 quarterback. Like, I'm trying to think where I even fit in Rodgers now. And when I model this team out, my model doesn't get the Tomlin effect. You just nailed it. Like, my model has him at seven wins, so I have him at a game and a half below it. But a computer doesn't understand that Tomlin is. He's a glitch. There's nothing like him coaching wise, like, this guy just will.
- [30:32]
Chad Millman
So what's the value of that, though? Like, to me, I think they're giving him. You say they're at seven. I had it at seven and a half and I think they're getting an extra game just because of Tomlin.
- [30:43]
Noah
Yeah, I mean if you think Vrabel's worth two and a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you then. Chad, like as much as I want to give respect of Rabel Tomlins, that dude and I know he doesn't have the success, but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash at the quarterback position and he makes it work because he just wills this team, special teams, defense, whatever it is. So we know the deal. Like this team, I think you just nailed it too where it's like you want to take a position later on and take their under. That was the move last year and I hate that I missed it where we all, we all kind of started drinking the Kool aid on, you know, Russell Wilson because he came in, he was so dynamic. And they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But we kept saying to ourselves, the number doesn't back it up. When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not. It's just luck. Like his 50, 50 balls deep downfield, eventually it's going to go the other way. And I think they went. I don't know if it was five straight games, they just got worked. The end of the season they couldn't cover either. So yeah, I look at this team that if they just have a stable position player and Aaron Rodgers the quarterback position and he can get the ball to DK and they can make it work offensively. And you know, this rookie they draft can be the number one running back. Great. But like I have so many questions about their offensive line. I have so many questions about their run block and all the offensive line. I just, I can't get it. Get there and be excited. So I'll bet the over at a respected Tomlin. But yeah, like as we sit here right now, this is another game where it's like I have two other teams. I rather bet heavier on their win total. The Bangles under. I much rather bet that. And then we're about to talk Cleveland. So yeah, I'm just, I'm uninspired by Pittsburgh and I feel bad for their fans where it's just. You're just stuck in this middle floating around position and they basically. They burn the boats. Chad, like I just talked about the. The Bengals missed their window. This is Pittsburgh's window. Like they have a very old expensive defense that maybe one or two years here left. Like you literally went out and got slay. You Know I love slay. Obviously him and Ramsey. Yes, that could be good cornerbacks or could be two dudes way over the hill that are about to get absolutely cooked by almost every team in their division's wide receivers. So that's, that's a fear here is they're just a very old team with a lot of guys who could be get a lot of injuries. So I just, I can't get excited again. 41 Super bowl odds. Who's betting that? Who's betting Pittsburgh a 4 to 1 thinking they're going to hold up through the whole year in the afc? I just, it's very bizarre where they're a team. I feel like back in the day they would have been 60 or 55 to 1. The books are just giving us shit odds in the Super Bowl. So yeah, no bet for me other than the win total here feels very.
- [33:15]
Chad Millman
Washington team Formerly known as mid-1990s, late 1990s signing big name players who have long track records, hoping that is the key. When does this ever work out? When do you ever sign a 40 plus year old quarterback, give up draft picks for a always disgruntled high maintenance receiver and then go all in on two cornerbacks who had been bouncing around in the latter stages of their career because they might be in the latter stages of their career? This has never worked in the history of football. This has never worked.
- [34:06]
Noah
That's why they just got a hope on Tomlin. Like that's, the whole team is just built around Tomlin. It feels like where it's just you need to make all these personalities work and it's tough.
- [34:14]
Chad Millman
I feel like that's not a recipe for success in the NFL. Last I checked, you actually have to have good players.
- [34:20]
Noah
Yeah, I mean just, it's brutal.
- [34:22]
Chad Millman
Hey, speaking of good players, how about those Cleveland Browns?
- [34:26]
Noah
Cleveland Rocks. Cleveland Rocks. Cleveland rocks. Cleveland rocks.
- [34:33]
Chad Millman
30 to 1 to win the division. I had to check that three times. They're 100 to 1 to win the conference, 200 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total four and a half tied with the Giants for the longest division odds in the NFL. It's a tricky one. It's actually similar to the Giants. Right. Because their defense is so good, especially the defensive line. When you and I talked about the Giants during the NFC east preview, like we talked about their defensive line and their how good it is, especially with Dexter Lawrence. The Browns obviously have Miles Garrett. We have a bias to the defense. But last year we did get caught a couple of times like believing their defense would be good enough to keep games close. And then the offense was just so incompetent. There was no saving this team. So, like, Joe Flacco is going to be the starting quarterback. I don't know that I have more confidence in this team because he's doing that right? Like, can they beat the jets and the Titans? Those are the games that, like, would. Maybe you can circle them as wins, but I don't know, man. You seem to have a strong opinion here.
- [35:49]
Noah
I fucking love this Browns team. Give me that. Over four and a half. I love this team so much. And it's another team that people just. They're out on them, right? It's a gross team. They. They got the QB drama right. They drafted these two young kids. Even Chad was like, no, it'll be Shador starting where I knew all along is gonna be Joe Flacco, man. It's just what he does, baby. He's just the consummate pro. Doesn't say much. He's my favorite line he had where they were like, yeah, you're gonna mentor these guys and help them out. He goes, no, I'm. This is my job. I'm here to win. They want to copy me and watch how I go about my business. That's how I mentor them. I'll show what it's like to be a professional quarterback. Was he 39 years old? 38 years old. I mean, it's. It's crazy that Joe's still in the league, still a starter and. And the disrespect that this team is getting because last year they had nothing at the quarterback position. Joe is not nothing. Like, yes, you could say he was bad last year with that Colts team. That to me was so much dysfunction within the organization where the Browns, you could say they had this dysfunction. I look at Stefanski as a great coach. I think he plays within a system that when a quarterback can run his system, it's a good functioning system. And their. Their offensive line isn't as bad as people think it is. And Jerry Judy, to me, is a great super receiver, Especially fantasy football this year. This is a deep threat. I think he might have 1400 yards last year when they. Again, they had nothing at the quarterback position last year. So Jerry Judy, a guy who was a number one pick that Denver up offloaded and he went to the Browns and you've seen the talent spark. You've not heard a single thing about Jerry Jude this office. You know why? Because he doesn't around and do stupid in the off season. He just does work and he's coming to training camp and he's put in work. And apparently him and Flacco have a great connection. So to me, you know, they've had a lot of legal issues with this rookie running back they drafted. It looks like it worked out that this kid is going to be okay and be able to play football. Sure, he might get suspended four games because, you know, he did some horrible in the NFL. Even though he's not legally getting charged, the NFL might still punish him. They still have other guys. Like, they drafted this other kid, Sampson as a rookie. They have Ford, another running back they could put in there. Okay, so those are weapons there. And now you think about their defense. Chad just nailed it. Like, this defense might be really good. Like, they're. They're questioning with their secondary. They've added pieces this off season to the secondary to try to improve it. And my favorite thing reading about Eagles Jordan practice with the Browns was you literally can't practice when Miles Garrett's on the field because he ruins every single play. You can never run a play with him on the field. And it didn't matter when they had Lane Johnson out there and Malata, he was beating those guys. And a lot of joke, they're like, hey, Melody, can you take anything away from playing against a guy like Miles Garrett? He goes, no, because he does things that no other human on this planet can do that plays football like no one else can. Throw me back five feet with one arm while spinning the other way and going around me. So it's like you have the guys up front again in the draft. They went out and try to draft guys on the front line again. They traded down to get more equity for next year because they're. They're what the general public thinks, right? They're a team that views them as being a bad team. The front office doesn't have high hopes for this team, but to me, that's the type of teams I like, where inside guys like Flacco and other guys, they believe in this team. So this is another team where it's like, okay, if you want to bet the win total, I get it. But it's four and a half. Like, they can find four and a half wins with a veteran quarterback and a veteran defense like this and a good head coach. Like, they're even. Week one against Cincinnati, I think they're five and a half or six point dog. We've seen Cincinnati come out slow, and I know they've tried to be playing guys in spring training so they're up to speed. Joe Flacco might throw for 350 yards against this defense like they're. This might be end up being a shootout and who has the better defense by far it's going to be this Brown team who can get stops. And I think a lot of games this year they will be able to get stops defensively and be able to move the ball offensively. So I know it's gross and it's ugly looking but I really like the four and a half and I can't believe I'm saying to do it but you have to because it's third to one. You have to throw a dollar on this, this division a lot. Like you have to do it. Where there's a world where Lamar, who plays a very aggressive style does get banged up and there is a world where we talk about the Bengals are just not that good of a team in Pittsburgh is maybe a nine win team. The Browns could get there. Like I know people just don't believe them. It's just hard to squint your eyes and see it. But it's like if you have a good defense, if you have a good offensive line and everyone's healthy, that is such a huge advantage into the season where so many teams are dealing with injuries and injuries to important positions heading into the season where the Browns really don't have that like all the, the drama is kind of media made up where Dylan Gabriel and Shador, they were never going to be the starters. They're fighting for that number two job. So I just love how it's lined up in position for this Browns team. And you know, it's the fact that it's four and a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total like I'll, I'll adjust to take the six and a half and plus 200 over. Like that's just a fun bet to make where if I think this team's going to pop, I think they'll pop to that over. So yeah, this is a team that was five and a half. The pros, the general public for the most part had bet this down because I think most of them thought it was going to be Shador or Dylan Gabriel to be the starter. And now that it's Flacco, how can you not love this team at four and a half win total? I, I love the value. So again I don't have them graded at like 10 wins. I have five and a half wins. So it's not crazy. But I don't think my computer really understands how, how important is to have a veteran quarterback like Flacco with a great offensive mind like Stefanski. And again two years ago, this is a duo that made the playoffs. Like, this is a tandem that works and we've seen it work before. So I just think people are too low on this team for all the scars they had last year where it's, it's a new year and they're not as bad as people perceive.
- [41:34]
Chad Millman
Strong opinion on Cleveland Browns. Very strong. Seems like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Browns over four and a half, the Bengals under nine and a half. I also like a Ravens super bowl matchup. I think probably like a Ravens Lions super bowl matchup bet. You know, I'm going to bet Ravens, Lions, Ravens Eagles, probably Ravens Niners as part of my super bowl matchup round robin. Do you have a specific team you would match them with?
- [42:10]
Noah
Don't hate it. You just, you know my feeling about playoff golf. Yeah, I know, but I don't mind it. Like, again, I've, I have done Ravens, Eagles, I've done Ravens, 49ers, I've done Ravens, Rams. So I'm, I'm with you where it's like, as much as I like talking about Lamar, it's like Payton Manning, Peyton Manning for seven years couldn't get out of the shadow of Brady and eventually he breaks through and it's just, it's only a matter of time for Josh Allen Moore as they're in their prime. The talent's there. Can they show up in the playoffs in the biggest moments and live up to it? So I'm with you on betting Ravens futures. It's like, don't bet them, you know, just to win the Super Bowl. It's plus 650. That's a stupid bet. Bet the matchups, people.
- [42:51]
Chad Millman
The favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page where we cover our NFL Best Bets for the 2025 NFL season and College Football Week 1 with our special BBOC podcasts. Guests download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your pods. Rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
- [43:18]
Noah
Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
- [43:31]
Chad Millman
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [43:39]
Manny
Why are TSA rules so confusing?
- [43:41]
Noah
You got a hoodie? You want to take it all?
- [43:43]
Manny
I'm Manny. I'm Noah, this is Devin, and we're Best friends and journalists with a new podcast called no Such Thing where we get to the bottom of questions like that. Why are you screaming? I can't expect what to do now? If the rule was the same, go off on me. I deserve it, you know, Lock him up. Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. No Such Thing.
- [44:09]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [44:26]
Chad Millman
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [44:29]
AJ Jacobs
That's right.
- [44:29]
Noah
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [44:32]
AJ Jacobs
The Puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [44:41]
Matt
Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama.
- [44:48]
Co-host of All the Smoke
Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking, you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and you get a chance for people to unpack and get beyond race.
- [45:02]
Matt
All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.
- [45:10]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jay Kofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [45:28]
Noah
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [45:34]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [45:40]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.