The Favorites - AFC South Betting Preview

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: The Favorites - AFC South Betting Preview
Release Date: July 30, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosts Chad Millman and his co-host Simon Hunter delve into a comprehensive betting preview of the AFC South division for the upcoming NFL season. Skipping the usual advertisements and promotional segments, the hosts focus on analyzing each team within the division, assessing their strengths, weaknesses, and betting potentials.

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Houston Texans Analysis

Overview:
The Houston Texans have been the division winners for the past two seasons, largely driven by the performance of their quarterback, C.J. Stroud. While the team shows promise, particularly on defense, concerns persist regarding their offensive line and overall offensive strategy.

Key Points:

• C.J. Stroud's Performance:
  Chad highlights Stroud’s brilliant rookie season but notes a significant regression in the following year, particularly in deep passing. "CJ Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game, one of the five best seasons over the previous five years," Chad explains at [11:12].

• Offensive Line Issues:
  The deterioration of the offensive line has been detrimental to Stroud’s performance. "They have done nothing to help the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse," Chad criticizes at [10:16].

• Defensive Strengths:
  Despite offensive struggles, the Texans boast the best defensive unit in the division, with key players like Will Anderson and Derek Stingley bolstering their ranks. "They have the same type of model; if their model has this at 10, why not throw it at nine and a half," Chad notes at [06:50].

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +110
• Conference Odds: 16 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 30 to 1
• Win Total: 9.5

Notable Quote:
“Nine and a half, if I'm going to bet it, I have it right at 10, I'll take the over, but it's so small,” Chad remarks at [06:50], expressing hesitance due to the uncertainties surrounding the Texans' offensive line.

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Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis

Overview:
The Jaguars are positioned at +300 to win the AFC South, reflecting the team's underdog status despite recent improvements. With a new coaching staff and evolving team dynamics, the Jaguars present an intriguing betting opportunity.

Key Points:

• Recent Performance and Injuries:
  The Jaguars have shown potential, especially with Trevor Lawrence’s leadership and a strong defensive front. However, Lawrence’s injuries have significantly impacted their performance. “They went on a monster comeback playoff win in 2022 against the Chargers that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young QBs in the NFL,” Chad narrates at [15:27].

• New Coaching and Roster Changes:
  Under new coach Liam Cohn, the Jaguars have made strategic additions like Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., aiming to bolster both offense and defense. “The offensive line... consisting of Walker Little and Josh Hines Allen, provides a solid foundation,” Chad points out at [17:42].

• Betting Considerations:
  The Jaguars have a win total projected at 7.5, but early-season challenges, including a tough initial schedule, suggest that patience may be key for bettors.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +300
• Conference Odds: 35 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 80 to 1
• Win Total: 7.5

Notable Quote:
"Patience, because that is," the Sports Analyst advises at [25:31], suggesting that early struggles may present better betting opportunities later in the season.

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Indianapolis Colts Analysis

Overview:
The Colts remain a middling team within the AFC South, grappling with quarterback inconsistencies and a lackluster offensive line. Despite some talent, the organization faces challenges in establishing a stable and high-performing squad.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Situation:
  The Colts are in a transitional phase with Daniel Jones expected to take over as the primary quarterback, replacing the inconsistent Anthony Richardson. “We have not had a consistent quarterback since Philip Rivers,” the Sports Analyst notes at [30:28].

• Offensive Line and Tight Ends:
  Recent signings like Cam Ward aim to strengthen the offensive line, but uncertainties remain regarding the tight end position and overall offensive strategy.

• Coaching and Management:
  The departure of former owner Jim Mercier has led to a more hands-off approach by the new ownership, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than ego-driven moves.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +360
• Conference Odds: 50 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 100 to 1
• Win Total: 7.5

Notable Quote:
"We did not bet on Tennessee, thank God," the Sports Analyst reflects at [42:30], emphasizing the cautious approach towards teams with uncertain quarterback prospects.

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Tennessee Titans Analysis

Overview:
The Titans are considered long shots to win the AFC South, with significant improvements expected this season. New additions like Cam Ward and a focus on strengthening special teams could turn the tide for this struggling franchise.

Key Points:

• New Quarterback Cam Ward:
  Ward is seen as a pivotal figure for the Titans, with his composure and skill set promising to elevate the team's offense. “He's just so cool. Like he reminds me of Lamar,” the Sports Analyst praises at [33:10].

• Defensive Improvements:
  The Titans aim to enhance their defense incrementally, leveraging veteran players and new signings to create a more formidable unit. “If you hit right on the quarterback, it can flip it,” Chad asserts at [41:02].

• Special Teams Overhaul:
  Addressing last season’s weaknesses in special teams is a priority, with new coaching staff and player acquisitions aimed at rectifying previous deficiencies.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +720
• Conference Odds: 100 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 200 to 1
• Win Total: 5.5

Notable Quote:
"It's such a great value taking the division odds," the Sports Analyst enthuses at [36:16], highlighting the potential upside despite the current long odds.

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Betting Recommendations

Houston Texans (+110):
Despite offensive line concerns, the Texans' strong defense and C.J. Stroud's potential make them a viable bet to win the division. However, bettors should approach cautiously due to the narrow margin in the win total.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+300):
An underdog with potential upside, especially if early-season struggles open up better betting opportunities later on. Patience is advised given their tough initial schedule.

Indianapolis Colts (+360):
With quarterback uncertainty and a middling team performance, the Colts are a higher-risk bet. Stability in the quarterback position could elevate their chances, but current projections suggest mediocrity.

Tennessee Titans (+720):
As the long shot, the Titans offer significant potential for bettors willing to take a gamble. Improvements in quarterback play and special teams could shift their fortunes, making them an enticing yet risky option.

Notable Quote:
"If Trevor Lawrence can be that guy... he should easily reach this number in this division," Chad emphasizes at [15:24], underscoring the importance of key player performances in betting decisions.

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Conclusion

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide an in-depth analysis of the AFC South, highlighting each team's prospects and betting potentials. While the Texans appear to be the frontrunners with their robust defense, the Jaguars and Titans offer intriguing underdog opportunities for bettors seeking higher risks with potentially greater rewards. The Colts remain a middling option, with quarterback stability being a crucial factor for their success. As the season approaches, the hosts advise bettors to consider team dynamics, key player performances, and early-season challenges when placing their bets.

Final Thoughts:
"We have a record of betting on bad teams like the Jaguars and Panthers, but understanding the underlying factors gives us insights," Chad concludes at [44:49], encouraging a strategic approach to NFL betting.

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Note:
This summary excludes all advertisements, intros, and outros to focus solely on the episode's main content. For a full listening experience, consider tuning into The Herd with Colin Cowherd on your preferred podcast platform.

Transcript

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[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Let's welcome in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello. So I'm in.

[Sports Analyst]

Chad, how we doing, brother?

[Chad Millman]

Dude, we made it. Every year we hope and pray training camps would come a little bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the exact same time. Which means it's time for us to kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC and the NFC as our march to week one officially begins today. We start with the always electrifying division that I am quick to show deference to, one that I have nothing but respect for. One that shows us year after year after year why it is not a joke division at all. A division that has been loved and admired by us on this show for going on a decade. The AFC South.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, it's a, it's a gross division, but it's a division that you can find a lot of value in. We've had some really fun years, Ben. It right the Trevor Lawrence year that he came back 8 to 1, 10 to 1. Some people got it to win this division on the last game of the year against Tennessee, pretty exciting. The following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show, talked about Houston Texans think they were 11 to 1, sure enough won the division. So it's, it's just a crazy division. You can go from worst to first in this division if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination. Just because we talk all the time, it's, it's a bad division, Chad. So if you're, if you just have one really good part of your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, that's, that's sort of the theme for this division and we've talked about it a few times on the show already during the off season. And so let's get into it. The Houston Texans. The Houston Texans, they're the division winners the past two seasons. C.J. stroud had a brilliant rookie season. He took a huge step back last season. Arguably a lot of different reasons for that. Their division odds plus 110. Their conference odds, 16 to 1. Longer by the way, than the Chargers whom they crushed in the playoffs. Their Super bowl odds, 30 to one. Their win total, nine and a half. Dude, I want to love the Texans. I really do. I want to believe in C.J. stroud. I want to believe in the back to back playoffs. I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it close with the Chiefs in the postseason. I want to believe because their defense is so good at every level. You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big money. They got Will Anderson. Derek Stingley signed a deal. Three years, 90 million, 89 guaranteed. I want to love this team so much, but they have done nothing to help the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse. No more Laramie Tunel created as one of the best tackles in the NFL. The big issue last year was the offensive line. I've got the stats to back it up on how it impacted C.J. stroud and the most important elements of his game. Simon, before I dig into the data here, give me your take on the Texans. Am I blowing all of this out of proportion? Because at the end of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division. Take the best quarterback.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah. It's interesting talking to scouts on the team where their view of it was. It's, it's a big deal to lose, obviously, losing offensive lineman. But to them, they were so bad they needed to make major change and that's across the board. And Tunsil, you can talk about him as a great player. He is, he's older. Chad, he's not what we still think of in previous years. Right. Last year, you can, you can't put the blame on him because like you just said, that whole offensive line was bad. But he wasn't that great either. Like he wasn't really dominant in his one on ones as well. So I, I, I, I'm with you. I didn't really get the move, but the more I've talked to guys on the team and kind of got their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move. Now, talking about the quarterbacks, we talk. I mean, this is year three for CJ and this division three years ago was all about the quarterbacks. Right. We had C.J. go to Houston, we had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you had Tennessee take Will Levis. Now here we are three years later, Will Levis is gone. I mean, he's basically, his career is over. In Tennessee, they took Game Ward, the first pick, and Anthony Richardson, total unknown. CJ has been in the playoffs every season and has won a playoff game every season. So I think it's tough where we have expectations for people. But to me, he's come into the league and he's done everything I expected him to do. Like he shows up in the playoffs. And again, we talked that game against the Chiefs. I know everyone played the Chiefs Tight and tough last year, but they were in it. They were in that fourth quarter. So this is a team, we talk, we know they have a load of talent. But like your, your questions right now, I think is what the majority of the public is feeling. That is why this is a minus 150, minus 160. Right. There's a reason this is plus 110. Because we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive line. And what is up with C.J. was that just because of the regression of last year we expected and defensive coordinators being better against him and him struggling because of that and the adjustments they made, maybe, but a little bit like me and you watched a lot of their games, he just looked different. He didn't have the same confidence. Him putting the ball downfield was a little different. So I get the hesitation with people. But to me, nine and a half, if I'm going to bet it, I have it right at 10, I'll take the over, but it's so small. Am I really going to put a lot of money into it? No, it's. It's a very small margin here because to me, 10 to 11 wins is, is true for them, that's a real possibility. But the reason it is nine and a half so low is because of the unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the Colts like this. We all expect this division to be much better than they were last year, right? Last year Houston just had their way in this division. So that's why like a lot of have asked about this nine and a half, they're like, is it trappy? It's not that trappy in the sense that the books have laid this number because of that, right? They're, they have the same type of model. If their model has this at 10, why not throw it at nine and a half and juice it, Juice it to the over, right? That's where most of the public money should come in. And so makes sense that it's, it's, it's nine and a half. I'm shocked. They're 30 to one. Super bodes like I wouldn't probably put it below 35. So to me there's no value for looking at their super bowl odds. But if, if you want to make a play on the division A plus 110, Chad, I can't fault you for it. I've thrown a little, little bet on it in parlays with them and a couple other teams. But straight up wise, this is not the team I'm better for this division at all.

[Chad Millman]

Me neither, brother. I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect. The nine and a half is just not that interesting.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, it's not appealing.

[Chad Millman]

It's not that interesting to me. Let's not discount the fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their receiver room. Nico Collins is really their only primary target. They haven't really upgraded the running back situation. Joe Mixon has an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they say happened away from the facility. That's going to keep him out through a lot of training camp. They have Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone for a running back.

[Sports Analyst]

So I do want to just say the wide receiver, Chad, they did add. I know it's not a big name to you. Christian Kirk.

[Chad Millman]

I know they had a Christian.

[Sports Analyst]

He's a good veteran. I just want to say I don't want to shit on him. And Jaden Higgins, a rookie has a really high upside. So they did address a little bit the wide receiver. I'm not trying to say you're totally off basis, but, like, they did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.

[Chad Millman]

You asked what happened to C.J. stroud last year. I'm going to tell you what happened to C.J. stroud last year because I've been digging into the data. One of the biggest reasons for his progression in 2023, CJ Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game, right? Per the advanced stats such as EPA on deep throws or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so good. He had One of the five best seasons over the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL. Throwing the deep ball. In 2024, he was so bad on deep balls, he fell to 29th in EPA. Again, EPA is expected points added. 29th on deep balls in EPA in the NFL. What happened, you might ask, why did CJ Stroud regress so much? And we tried to figure it out all year last year. Like, were the defenses doing something differently? Was it the injuries to Nico Collins? Was it, you know, different kind of sort of thinking from CJ the biggest issue goes back to what we talked about in the beginning, the offensive line, the disruption, pressure rate that he faced. Okay, what that really means is, like, he was disrupted from going through even his initial progression increased from 5% in 2023 to 25% in 2024. That was the highest in the league. So this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on any play. And it took away what was his greatest weapon as a Rookie. And remember, like think back, we all remember how great he was throwing deep balls. And if you even think about that playoff game against the Chargers, he was throwing bombs in that game. Multiple explosive pass plays. Those are what won them that game. In addition to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass. If he can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that to me poses a real problem for The Texans and C.J. stroud.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah. And we would both agree though, they still obviously have the best defensive unit in this division. Yes, I have the best quarterback in this division by a long shot. And you know, if you're someone out there that likes doing these divisional parlays like I like doing, I have no issue with you Bedner right now throwing them into a parlay. But like we're about to dive in here. There's other, other teams division that just have better odds, better value where I'm, I'm not saying it was fluky that year one with cj, but you talked about a little bit with numbers where we knew he was due for a regression on the deep ball. That, that's insane though, him being 29th. I didn't know it was that bad that, that nice median. If he finds, if he can be back in the top 15, that that's going to pretty much lock them up doing this division. Right. Like that would be such a huge bump in their offensive output. So I'm with you again. Another thing that's not being talked about enough, Joe Mixing being hurt. I know he's not Joe Mixing of old, but that's still a big deal to that offense where, you know, he raced for over a thousand yards. He was pretty important to that offense last season. So yeah, it's going to be something to follow along the next month. See what he is in the update on his injuries because he, he is in line right now to miss the first couple of weeks. That's why they're talking in camp. So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.

[Chad Millman]

Real stabilizing force on the team. Real veteran presence. Did so much to put that team in contention when things were not going well for the offense and for the passing game. All right, so it feels like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their, their failings, but also their strengths. It really could come down to their defense if CJ improves on the deep ball a little bit. We like them a little bit more. But right now we don't find any value in their numbers unless we're doing their plus one 10 and some parlays to win the division. All right. Jacksonville Jaguars it's the Chant Herd all.

[Sports Analyst]

Throughout Everbanks.

[Chad Millman]

Call for pride in Jacksonville's team to let everyone know where they are from. Jacksonville Jaguars plus 300 to win the division 35 to one to win the conference 80 to one to win the Super bowl win total seven and a half Simon, can you tell me what this date means for the Jacksonville Jaguars? You ready? December 4, 2023 was that the last time they're above.500? No. December 4, 2023 was a Monday night game against the Bengals. At that point in the season, The Jags were 8 and 3. In 2023 they were leading the division, still building off of a monster comeback playoff win in 2022 against the Chargers that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young QBs in the NFL. It made it look like the Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them into the next realm of AFC greatness. Midway through the fourth quarter of that game it was tied 28 28. Trevor Lawrence was stepped down by his own lineman, Walker Little. Severely injured his right ankle did not return to the game. The Jags lost in overtime. 34 31. They dropped to 8 and 4 in the season. They'd go on to lose four of their final five games, finish the season 9 and 8. Missed the playoffs, wheels fell off. They never put him back on the next year, even when he was healthy. Trevor Lawrence starts own four. They never get into a groove. He hurts his shoulder. He's done for the year. So who is this team going to be like? Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and then started the next year 8 and 3 and then had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of never recovered. Over the next season and a half, new coach Liam Cohn, Brian Thomas Jr. Was brilliant. Travis Hunter, they've improved what they've done on offense. Question marks at running back, bottom 10 offensive line six easy schedule according to one win loss projections.

[Sports Analyst]

So.

[Chad Millman]

I'm a buyer on the Jags.

[Sports Analyst]

I can't fault you. I know a lot of pros like again, this is the vision. There's pros. I like a lot of these teams for different reasons. A lot of pros I've talked to who like these guys in May, then in June, now they're like even more here in July. The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new head coach. Like the new head coach you bring them in with the new offensive scheme. You bring in Travis Hunter. You, you, I mean, people want him to play both sides. The wide receiver position, I think is going to be the first thing they're trying to work into him. Right. They want him to be a weapon on offense first. Just because we know that that matters more. The likelihood of him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller than it is being a stud wide receiver. It's just a much easier position to play rather than defensively. But the thing that really stands out to me is the fact that, you know, they got Walker, they got Josh Hines Allen, these two incredible D linemen that, I mean, you know, as much as we, we like to on the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting 10 sacks every year. Like he's, this, is this, I think last year's his third season. Another ten and a half sacks. Like they, they have the defensive front in my opinion, but man, are they bad across the board defensively. Like there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively. And did they go out and address that stuff? I don't know, like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being their number one corner? Yes, that'd be amazing. An ideal world. It's not looking that way. Like you just watch his footwork. I just, you know, I can't imagine him trying to go up against teams number ones like him going against Nico Collins. He would have a horrible day against Nico Collins that like Nico Collins is so professional running routes. He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel. So my mind when I look at this team is high, high upside. Do you love the number, Chaz +300 enough value for you? If it is, then it's good value. Like that's, that's the question here. Is the number good enough? Seven half wins. Yeah. If Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked about, that 8 and 3 quarterback that was ascending at that point. Yes, this, this team should easily reach this number in this division. They have such a high level offense that would, you know, even if we don't know who their number one running back is right now, like even looking at their depth chart, Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis Etienne took a step back. We don't know which one of those guys will be the guy or could be the rookie they drafte. Like it's, that's a big question right now. But you're, you, you kind of brought up something we talk all the time, the offensive line, something we really do care about that to me is going to be interesting part about, you know, you bring in a new head of coach, you're bringing new offensive style. Can he wrap the offense around Trevor Lawrence and that offensive line? Can he make it work a qu. A quick pass offense? Because we know on the outside if you have Hunter and Brian Thompson, Brian Thompson Jr. That's an insanely deadly combo. Wide receivers like no excuse for Trevor Lawrence when you have those two guys on the outside. But Kenny survived that offensive line, Chad. So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team. I didn't make a small bet on them. Their win total because it did open at seven and a half. I bet it the juice has been going up towards the over because to me they're. They're all upside team. When you bring in a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off an injury and they're kind of left for dead in the public opinion's eye. I do like them, but I also can see this team easily crash and burning just because of all that like you just talked about. He does not stay healthy. That's the biggest issue with Trevor Lawrence. He doesn't stay healthy and he's inconsistent. So to me, so many questions about this team. I haven't bet them divisionally, have not bet them super bowl odds. Even though it is tempting. 81, it's just I can't get there. But the wind total of seven and a half in this division with all the offensive firepower they have, if they can just put it together offensively. I do like that number, Chad. So I get why you have love for them coming into this year.

[Chad Millman]

Why wouldn't you bet the division like +300 feels like crazy good value for this team right now that it 18 months ago was the division winner. Don't forget like even though CJ Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was the last game of the year and they only got in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt. And the Jags collapse like they're removed. And they've got new coaching and a new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there. It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about. Plus 300 feels just feels too long to me.

[Sports Analyst]

I'm playing, you know me, I'm always playing the angles. So basically they start the season with the Panthers. So yeah, we love the Panthers. We'll dive into them our next show. But they go Cincy, Houston, 49ers, Chiefs, Seattle, then the Rams and their bye week. So to me, if I Think if I can be patient here and they can go, you know, three and four, I might be able to get a better number at their bye week point because then they come out their bye week, they come out and they play Vegas, Houston, Chargers, Arizona. Like, they have a really tough start to the season with that Cincy, Houston, 49ers, Kansas City run. Like, to me that's just a brutal stretch. So I'm just gonna be patient here and I think you'll get a better number if you wait in season just because I just don't see a scenario where they're going to Cincinnati, winning, coming home beating Houston, then going at the 49ers, winning and then coming home beating the Chiefs like that. Just to me, for this new coaching staff, that's a really, really rough start. Chad, I know you probably didn't dive into that as much. You agree that's, that's a little, a little daunting to start the year that way.

[Chad Millman]

I did. I dove into it for the first two games. I honestly didn't dive beyond that. And I saw the Panthers on the schedule and I'm like, ah, well, that's an automatic L for the Jacks.

[Sports Analyst]

There you go, there you go.

[Chad Millman]

And we'll talk about the Panthers in the NFC south in the next show. Like you just said, a little hint. I know we have, we have asked people to tail us on the Panthers for many, many years. And Simon, you know, as you and I have discussed for the book I'm working on, I have done a very deep dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons, all of which is tracked in the Action Network app. And the fun part of that is I was able to download every single bet and track it to the most minute level of detail. And the, my record betting bad teams, the teams that, that we have lost the most, that we are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers. Like, it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when we are so sure that is the exact right side.

[Sports Analyst]

My favorite thing is you said we've been betting the Panthers for years. It was just one year. That's how, that's how many years it felt like it took off your life. It was just one year, but it felt like years to you because.

[Chad Millman]

And by the way, it took years of her life. And by the second half of the season, they were phenomenal.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, it was the best.

[Chad Millman]

And we'll talk about that. When I was doing the research for.

[Sports Analyst]

For Thursday's show, just that first ten weeks, man.

[Soccer Analyst]

Woo.

[Sports Analyst]

That was tough.

[Chad Millman]

Over the weekend I did the research for Thursday's show and I saw the Panthers and I'm like, oh my God, they were brilliant. And so we'll talk about that on Thursday. But your point is well taken. Maybe that's just a better time to buy the Jags.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, patient, because that is. I got you right away. When I saw that plus 300, I was like, yeah, I was tempted and I was like, there's. Why are they giving me that number? Let me, let me look into their schedule a little bit, see if there's a better opportunity come up in the year. And that bi a week jumped out to me that that could be good value that by a week if you want to take a position on them.

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[Podcast Host]

Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club. We go behind the scenes and explore the stories of those involved.

[Soccer Analyst]

San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.

[Sports Analyst]

We need veteran players and we need young players. Like you're building a team from scratch and so the succession plan of long term success needs to be defined. We need to embrace this community.

[Soccer Analyst]

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[Podcast Host]

Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Sarah Spain]

Get fired up, y'.

[Sports Analyst]

All.

[Sarah Spain]

Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe to the show, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance, sue, bird watching, former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete?

[Sports Analyst]

The final.

[Sarah Spain]

The final and the locker room. I really, really like you. Just, you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to the locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar Az Fudd. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And you know we're always gonna keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Chad Millman]

All right, so I think it's fair to say Simon, the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC south projections fairly land. The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.

[Podcast Host]

A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the super bowl on their quest to the NFL mountaintop.

[Sports Analyst]

That's where we're going. And we're just getting started. Horseshoe is back, baby.

[Chad Millman]

The horseshoe is back. The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to take it to the next level because I think we were both really impressed with how he coached that team two seasons ago. And with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew filling In, they are plus 360 to win the division. They are 50 to 1 to win the conference, 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Their win total to me at seven and a half feels like what they've been. It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity. Obviously the biggest play and we'll dig into this is Daniel Jones is now going to be the quarterback. Anthony Richardson has been A, struggling with play and accuracy, but B, still has lingering injury issues. Like, I feel like I don't have as tongue as strong opinions on this team. They're a middle of the pack team being graded as a milk toast investment. Like, what am I? What do I do here?

[Sports Analyst]

It's a tough thing to read. It's is it fully closed the window. I mean that they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck and they didn't have the offensive line and then as soon as he retired they finally had the offensive line and they had the defense. They kept bringing in these veteran quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony Richardson. He's just, he's failed in many ways but they failed him as an organization. And like you just said, now they brought in Daniel Jones and you know the books once again another line that people think they don't know what they're doing with it and they're just throwing out seven and a half. I have this number at seven. So to me the books priced are right, we're seven and a half. That feels right because the season go two ways. Like they have some talent on the team. They have it like you just said. I think we both agree they have the coaching. Can they have the quarterback to play consistent? They have, they've not had a consistent quarterback since Philip Rivers. So it's been, it's been Philip Rivers.

[Chad Millman]

That doesn't even count.

[Sports Analyst]

He was, he was solid for them. But yeah, I just, it's just, it's just tough to watch where you know, you see these pieces. I mean like the tight end they just went and got this year. You know, it was flip flopped. You know, you either take Warren or you know, the guy you guys got on the Bears. It's. It was one or two was they're going to be the top tight end. These guys are appearing like Brock Bowers. They're absolute specimen freaks. You want to get them touches. Okay. Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing it to a tight end? I mean his weaknesses are those 5 to 10 yard passes.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Sports Analyst]

And you know, we talked a couple months ago and we joked about it, but it's like the fact that he was missing off season programs because he's had. Still had a shoulder injury. It's just all bad for this Colts team. So if you are out there betting this and betting the total you're holding on to hope of he takes that next step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know, we've seen him lead a team to play him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins, that Vikings team, like it's, it's there for Daniel Jones. We know he just needs the coach in the right offensive line and the right scheme. Could this be it? Like could that be the kind of thing where he just beats out Richardson? Because you know it's, it is a big deal. That the owner, you know, Jim Ursay, has passed away. Like, the daughters have taken over. I see them doing it a little differently, and they're not, to me, as committed to Anthony Richardson as maybe their dad was. So if he comes in, he's just not putting it together. I could see them go with Daniel Jones, which my opinion would be better for them for this year, but not long term. So it's. It's a tough team, Chad. I. I honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in any way. I. I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just waiting to see who the quarterback is, because if it's Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over. If it's Richardson, I'll. I'll take the under just because he has been so inconsistent.

[Chad Millman]

What. What. What have you seen that makes you say the Daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed to the way?

[Sports Analyst]

I've just seen them talking about, like, talking how they go to practice, they're always meeting with the GMs, and their whole view is they're involved, but they don't want. They want to stay out and let people do their jobs. Where Jim Mercier was notorious for making the main decisions, right? He was the reason the quarterbacks came in. He was the reason Philip Rivers came in. He was the reason Kyle Shaw Wentz came in. I mean, Matt Ryan came in. He's always been the reason These different things have happened where apparently the daughters are letting the front office now make the moves, which, again, that, to me, is a. That's what you want. You want. You don't want an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that are heavily involved in their teams. Just because, you know, the oil business doesn't mean, you know, the football business. And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners, where they're doing stuff off ego and feel, where, yeah, Jim Mercier was a great owner. He lucked into Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Like, that's how it can be in this league, right? You don't need to be a genius to do those type of things. So I'm. I'm excited to see the future of this Colts organization just because of that. I really like, like everything I've read about the daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a new light. And they're also kind of the new generation of trust in the numbers more so than feel. So, yeah, it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just. We just nail on the head it's, it's Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. We'll know more later in the season. Right now as we sit here right now they're both splitting reps so no one really knows who the, who the main quarterback's going to be there.

[Chad Millman]

Listen, before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Kraft and Jim Irsay were just dudes who had family or wife wealth, who bought a team and were trying to figure out what to do with it and were completely unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful, caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love. Right. Quarterbacks solve everything. Which leads us to can Daniel Jones be this year's Sam Darnold? Right. And can Shane Steichen do what Kevin o' Connell did, at least make him a little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's been in whatever day ball did that first year with Daniel Jones. Can Shane Steichen replicate some of that magic? I don't know. But the uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of quarterbacks in taken high in the first round, getting opportunities, revitalizing their career, at least for a season, makes me want to pass completely on this team.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah. And I would be, I would be more interested in them if I knew exactly the quarterback was. But at this point, like we just said, it's just like +7,20 for the divisional odds. Yes. Me and Chad love those type of bets, but we can't just bet on the unknown right now, in my opinion.

[Chad Millman]

Speaking of plus 720, the Tennessee Titans. Plus 720. 100 to 1 to win the conference. 200 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total five and a half.

[Sports Analyst]

Kim, how you doing, man? This is Mike McGonz with Tennessee Titans. Yes, sir.

[Chad Millman]

How you doing?

[Sports Analyst]

I'm doing great, man.

[Chad Millman]

So we're going to turn this pick.

[Sports Analyst]

In here and make it the number one pick. How's that sound?

[Chad Millman]

Good. Last season, epically, historically record setting, bad against the spread run 2 and 15, the worst by any team in the super bowl era. When the season off season began and they, they had Cam Ward and you know, I like that they signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to, to help improve their offensive line.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah. Big signing.

[Chad Millman]

What's that?

[Sports Analyst]

Big signing for them.

[Chad Millman]

Big signing. And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive line coach and Brian Callahan, obviously the jury's out. We've been tempted here a little bit.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah. I love this team and like Chad knows I'VE been talking about them for a couple of months now. I was giving them out at +800 +900. A couple books for this division and you know, love the win total. Obviously over five and a half. Like couple books open them up four and a half, which to me was insane. But I think that was because they hadn't drafted Camm Ward. Yeah. And we saw after they drafted them, this number has shifted up to five. Five and a half at almost all the books. So love the wind total. My whole view of this team is they were so bad at the quarterback position. It was just such a negative. We've never seen anything like it. Like, it was, that was like one of the things that pained me last year was a really big blind spot to the amount of fans of our show begging us to fade the Tennessee Titans every week. And me and Chad are just too smart. We are too smart and we just, we did avoid them. We did not bet on Tennessee, thank God. But we could have, we should have just been fading Will Levis and that train wreck of a team. I mean, the worst special teams in football too. So again, easy things to correct though, right? Because it's the quarterback. And special teams to me was the glaring weaknesses. It wasn't their defense. I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me. With Calvin Ridley, with Cam Ward, that could be a real connection passing game wise. And like people think that's not that big of a deal. It is when you know Calvin really has that talent. Right. He missed a year because of gambling when he's, he's worked his way back these last couple years and everything I've read and seen in camp, there is a spark there. Like there is. He realizes there's potential in this quarterback. Unlike there was a Will Levis. And you know, they've talked about bringing in guys for the special teams to change what they had last year. And it's, it's a big deal when you know you're the worst team in football and special teams, that's an easy correct. Bringing in different players, different coaching staff to correct that weakness. And we talk it's, it's the quarterback. Like it's in this division. If you hit right on the quarterback, it can flip it because you're going from the last play schedule in a week in a weak division, that's a huge upper hand. So this is another team that, you know, we'll dive into week one, obviously, but they're at Denver Week one Cam Ward, that is a horrible, horrible spot for a rookie. Denver already is notorious. I can't wait for Evan to drop the stat. Denver at home in September. You don't want to go up the mile high and play those early seasons. It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin. Guys just do not do well in the first couple weeks up there. And you're putting a rookie on the road there. So if you want. You've already missed the Plus 800. If you don't want to take the Plus 700 or Plus 750 that's out there, you can just wait, assume they go own one and then take that position again before they're at home against the Rams, which a lot of people think that's a, that's a bad spot for them at home against the Rams. Rams are notorious for starting slow. I don't think that's as bad as a spot as people think, especially the fact that their first game, the Rams, is against Seattle, divisional game and then on the road, that's, that's a tough spot for the Rams. So just, if you want to be patient, you can. But to me, I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's still good. It's such great value taking the division odds. I just, I love everything about this team and everything I've seen about Cam Ward, I love. And again, me and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's talking about, no one's talking about the number one pick, Cam Ward. That's a good spot you want to be in when you're back on the team. You want to, you want to be what Jayn Daniels was last year. Right? No one talking about Jane and Daniels at this point. Everyone was talking about, you know, not to bust Chad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the upside of that Bears team, and they're running up their win total up to nine and a half. You want this, you want low expectations on a team that was last in the division. So, yeah, love the win total for this Tennessee team.

[Chad Millman]

You've said the magic word here, which is you kind of have to believe that the commanders have. The Titans have some kind of commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is the football equivalent or that Cam Ward is the football equivalent of Jaden Daniels. And that in the same way the commander's defense, you know, Brandon Anderson talked about this when we were talking about playoff scenarios. It's easier for defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger impact on the team than the other side of the ball. Right. And so you have to believe that the Titans can incrementally improve on defense and that Cam Ward can be as good as or just underneath what Jaden Daniels was. And that that offensive line you. That's in. That's an inside baseball thing, right? Believing in Bill Callahan, his ability to coach up an offensive line, if they get a little more talented, you got to believe a lot. So I feel like your entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find an opportunity and a window more than it is anything that any of us are going to find in the data, in the stats on the field, any of that, because we just don't know. It's purely finding a fact pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.

[Sports Analyst]

Mathematically though, as a better. It's very simple. You break down, go through the numbers. It's literally almost mathematically impossible to do what they did last year. So just going off of that, you're like, it's only up. Like we just 2 and 15 against the spread. We never seen anything like it. It was the craziest thing ever how bad they were against the spread and how every game just will Levis somehow had the stupidest turnover we've ever seen. We should have known though, that Week 1 against the Bears was just the start of it all. And we should have known right then and there. This is, this is a train wreck of a team because they just do not have a quarterback. So, yeah, really high expectations for Cam Ward. Every, every step he's taken since high school, through college to right now, he's improved every level. Every time he's moved up to a new team, to a new level, he's always improved. So yeah, I'm just, I'm really excited for this guy. Just I'm. I don't even want to say I have him the same level as I do with Caleb Williams and Jayn Daniels, but I literally have him right there. Like if it was, if he came out last year, I would have taken Jane Daniels. I had him ranked higher. But honestly, obviously didn't know Jayden Daniels was going to turn into what he did. But at the time I had them really close, like 1A, 1B. So yeah, just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would have been behind Michael Penix. I think that's a ridiculous conversation. I think he would have gone before him last year in the draft. I just, I really love the upside of this kid came Ward. What do you like about him other than his footwork? He's just so cool. Like he reminds me of Lamar where there's, there's bodies flying around him and he's just so composed in the pocket. So cool, calm, relaxed. Even after big moments, big hits, he's always able to stay level. And I really look for guys like that. The moments are never too big for them. And I saw it time and time again in college where you know, he would have this incredible 1012 play drive and again Miami is one of the worst defense I've ever seen. They would give up a 70 yard touchdown next play and he would just put his helmet back on, back to work, drive his team right down the field, do it again. He was just robotic in that way. Just such a command of the offense. And even what I've watched, the little stuff I've watched where him at Tennessee. His, his just his poise and his movement. Like I said, you can tell he's been working on his feet even, even during the off season. So yeah, I'm just really, really excited to see what he's gonna be like as a pro.

[Chad Millman]

He is a no drama draft pick.

[Sports Analyst]

No.

[Chad Millman]

You know, we have not heard anything about him in the way we heard about Caleb Williams last year in the way we heard about Shador Sanders this year in the way that we would hear about other number one overall picks. Very little attention being paid to Cam Ward and very little expectations which also could play to the strength of what you're talking about. What is looking at all four of these teams, your favorite division bet.

[Sports Analyst]

I mean it's going to be Titans over wins in their division odds.

[Chad Millman]

Titans over five and a half and Titans plus 720.

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, just they, they, they just really. There's always mean Chad. Talk about there's teams. I have a couple fourth play teams from last year I like this year. But there's always one team just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings and there's always these random teams like last year that just pop out of nowhere and this, this Tennessee really seems like that team to me. So the fact that their win total is so low based on public opinion, I love that value.

[Chad Millman]

It is massively under expectations. I feel the same way about the jags at plus 300 and over seven and a half.

[Sports Analyst]

I like it. I told people that I'm going to be patient on the Jags, I'm going to bet their win total and I'm about the divisional odds after their bi week just because it's, it's the start from hell for them. I just can't believe the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to the season, but it's, it's awesome because again, you have a new coaching staff. It's feet to the fire. You're gonna, you're gonna learn quick. Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're just gonna get rolled because it's just, it's a brutal. Like the coaching, the coaching staffs that they're going against in the first couple weeks, it's just, it's a really tough start this season for the Jaguars.

[Chad Millman]

Look, if they get rolled, you gotta start thinking about what's going to happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're gonna manage that in the future, because that will have been basically now going into a third season where they have not exceeded expectations. Last year he was only injured in the second half of the year. Yeah, so the first half he was terrible. And we've talked about this. Like, I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence. I don't know what it was, 30, 40 to 1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns because we felt like he had progressed so far. And then oftentimes in the red zone, it looked like he regressed. So this, to me feels like a make it or break it year for Trevor Lawrence. I know there's contract issues involved, but if he doesn't perform this year and this team doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing? What are you waiting for?

[Sports Analyst]

Yeah, but again, it's. It'll be tough because with this division, they could just once again get the seven wins. And even if they want to move on from. What do you do? You don't have the draft. You're not high enough in the draft to move on from. So, yeah, they're. I think they're stuck with him for at least two more seasons just because of the money. Like, we talk about the contract and I just. We talk. He's inconsistent. Like, he'll, he'll win games, he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn out against one of the worst teams and just not show up or have a ton of turnovers. And yeah, we're just, we're on the same thing with the Jags. It's like it's a make or break year and we like, we like the unknown. But you like a little more than I do.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I feel like. I feel like my favorite bet has a little more. You can see it to believe it. Substance, even though it's probably Wrong. And your favorite bet has a, you got to believe it and understand that this is going to happen somewhere in the NFL and you're making your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that, to make that commander's type leap, to make that Texans type leap from 2023. You're saying yours with more conviction.

[Sports Analyst]

I should say this Titans win thing that when I, when I do these, when I grade these out, this is like one of the better higher grades I have on a win total. Like this has a higher than a 6% chance of hitting. That's like when I, when I run those type of numbers. That's really good win total wise. That's why I'm so, I mean you knew months ago I was really emphatic about this team because as soon as I saw that the fact that that's, that's how big of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at a rookie that is that much higher grade than I have it on will Levis. It's, it is that big of an upgrade to a team that last year had bad luck. And we talk all the time about the last place schedule like it's, it's a cheat code and it's again we'll get into all these wind toys different teams. There's teams I don't love that much. Like we saw the Jaguars. I'm not in love with them. But I get why Chad's bender over. Because their second half is very easy.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. Like it's easier schedule.

[Sports Analyst]

Right. And they, so they could easily have a nice stretch then the season. So that's, that's something we're really breaking down here is we believe in these teams. I'm giving you my high hopes of this Tennessee team but like I said, I'm probably going to be fading them week one just because it's such a bad spot.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so that was the AFC south divisional betting preview. We will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk NFC South. Also check out @Real Chad Millman on YouTube for clips and highlights. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

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[Podcast Host]

Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club.

[Soccer Analyst]

San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.

[Sports Analyst]

We need to embrace this community.

[Podcast Host]

Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Sarah Spain]

Get fired up, y'.

[Sports Analyst]

All.

[Sarah Spain]

Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon Megan Rapinoe, to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like, wee people ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.

[Az Fudd]

Hey guys, it's Az Fudd. You may know me as a gold medalist. You may know me as an NCAA national champion. You may even know me as a people's princess. Every week on my new podcast, Fut around and find out, I'll be talking to some special guests about pop culture, basketball and what it's like to be a professional athlete on and off the court.

[iHeart Podcast Host]

Listen to Fut around and find out. A production of iHeart Women's Sports in partnership with Unanimous Media starting August 7th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast.