Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: The Favorites - AFC South Betting Preview
Release Date: July 30, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosts Chad Millman and his co-host Simon Hunter delve into a comprehensive betting preview of the AFC South division for the upcoming NFL season. Skipping the usual advertisements and promotional segments, the hosts focus on analyzing each team within the division, assessing their strengths, weaknesses, and betting potentials.

Houston Texans Analysis

Overview:
The Houston Texans have been the division winners for the past two seasons, largely driven by the performance of their quarterback, C.J. Stroud. While the team shows promise, particularly on defense, concerns persist regarding their offensive line and overall offensive strategy.

Key Points:

• C.J. Stroud's Performance:
  Chad highlights Stroud’s brilliant rookie season but notes a significant regression in the following year, particularly in deep passing. "CJ Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game, one of the five best seasons over the previous five years," Chad explains at [11:12].

• Offensive Line Issues:
  The deterioration of the offensive line has been detrimental to Stroud’s performance. "They have done nothing to help the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse," Chad criticizes at [10:16].

• Defensive Strengths:
  Despite offensive struggles, the Texans boast the best defensive unit in the division, with key players like Will Anderson and Derek Stingley bolstering their ranks. "They have the same type of model; if their model has this at 10, why not throw it at nine and a half," Chad notes at [06:50].

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +110
• Conference Odds: 16 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 30 to 1
• Win Total: 9.5

Notable Quote:
“Nine and a half, if I'm going to bet it, I have it right at 10, I'll take the over, but it's so small,” Chad remarks at [06:50], expressing hesitance due to the uncertainties surrounding the Texans' offensive line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis

Overview:
The Jaguars are positioned at +300 to win the AFC South, reflecting the team's underdog status despite recent improvements. With a new coaching staff and evolving team dynamics, the Jaguars present an intriguing betting opportunity.

Key Points:

• Recent Performance and Injuries:
  The Jaguars have shown potential, especially with Trevor Lawrence’s leadership and a strong defensive front. However, Lawrence’s injuries have significantly impacted their performance. “They went on a monster comeback playoff win in 2022 against the Chargers that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young QBs in the NFL,” Chad narrates at [15:27].

• New Coaching and Roster Changes:
  Under new coach Liam Cohn, the Jaguars have made strategic additions like Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., aiming to bolster both offense and defense. “The offensive line... consisting of Walker Little and Josh Hines Allen, provides a solid foundation,” Chad points out at [17:42].

• Betting Considerations:
  The Jaguars have a win total projected at 7.5, but early-season challenges, including a tough initial schedule, suggest that patience may be key for bettors.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +300
• Conference Odds: 35 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 80 to 1
• Win Total: 7.5

Notable Quote:
"Patience, because that is," the Sports Analyst advises at [25:31], suggesting that early struggles may present better betting opportunities later in the season.

Indianapolis Colts Analysis

Overview:
The Colts remain a middling team within the AFC South, grappling with quarterback inconsistencies and a lackluster offensive line. Despite some talent, the organization faces challenges in establishing a stable and high-performing squad.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Situation:
  The Colts are in a transitional phase with Daniel Jones expected to take over as the primary quarterback, replacing the inconsistent Anthony Richardson. “We have not had a consistent quarterback since Philip Rivers,” the Sports Analyst notes at [30:28].

• Offensive Line and Tight Ends:
  Recent signings like Cam Ward aim to strengthen the offensive line, but uncertainties remain regarding the tight end position and overall offensive strategy.

• Coaching and Management:
  The departure of former owner Jim Mercier has led to a more hands-off approach by the new ownership, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than ego-driven moves.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +360
• Conference Odds: 50 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 100 to 1
• Win Total: 7.5

Notable Quote:
"We did not bet on Tennessee, thank God," the Sports Analyst reflects at [42:30], emphasizing the cautious approach towards teams with uncertain quarterback prospects.

Tennessee Titans Analysis

Overview:
The Titans are considered long shots to win the AFC South, with significant improvements expected this season. New additions like Cam Ward and a focus on strengthening special teams could turn the tide for this struggling franchise.

Key Points:

• New Quarterback Cam Ward:
  Ward is seen as a pivotal figure for the Titans, with his composure and skill set promising to elevate the team's offense. “He's just so cool. Like he reminds me of Lamar,” the Sports Analyst praises at [33:10].

• Defensive Improvements:
  The Titans aim to enhance their defense incrementally, leveraging veteran players and new signings to create a more formidable unit. “If you hit right on the quarterback, it can flip it,” Chad asserts at [41:02].

• Special Teams Overhaul:
  Addressing last season’s weaknesses in special teams is a priority, with new coaching staff and player acquisitions aimed at rectifying previous deficiencies.

Betting Insights:

• Division Odds: +720
• Conference Odds: 100 to 1
• Super Bowl Odds: 200 to 1
• Win Total: 5.5

Notable Quote:
"It's such a great value taking the division odds," the Sports Analyst enthuses at [36:16], highlighting the potential upside despite the current long odds.

Betting Recommendations

Houston Texans (+110):
Despite offensive line concerns, the Texans' strong defense and C.J. Stroud's potential make them a viable bet to win the division. However, bettors should approach cautiously due to the narrow margin in the win total.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+300):
An underdog with potential upside, especially if early-season struggles open up better betting opportunities later on. Patience is advised given their tough initial schedule.

Indianapolis Colts (+360):
With quarterback uncertainty and a middling team performance, the Colts are a higher-risk bet. Stability in the quarterback position could elevate their chances, but current projections suggest mediocrity.

Tennessee Titans (+720):
As the long shot, the Titans offer significant potential for bettors willing to take a gamble. Improvements in quarterback play and special teams could shift their fortunes, making them an enticing yet risky option.

Notable Quote:
"If Trevor Lawrence can be that guy... he should easily reach this number in this division," Chad emphasizes at [15:24], underscoring the importance of key player performances in betting decisions.

Conclusion

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide an in-depth analysis of the AFC South, highlighting each team's prospects and betting potentials. While the Texans appear to be the frontrunners with their robust defense, the Jaguars and Titans offer intriguing underdog opportunities for bettors seeking higher risks with potentially greater rewards. The Colts remain a middling option, with quarterback stability being a crucial factor for their success. As the season approaches, the hosts advise bettors to consider team dynamics, key player performances, and early-season challenges when placing their bets.

Final Thoughts:
"We have a record of betting on bad teams like the Jaguars and Panthers, but understanding the underlying factors gives us insights," Chad concludes at [44:49], encouraging a strategic approach to NFL betting.

Note:
This summary excludes all advertisements, intros, and outros to focus solely on the episode's main content. For a full listening experience, consider tuning into The Herd with Colin Cowherd on your preferred podcast platform.